It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
India Eyes Operating Role in Foreign Ports With New State Consortium
Grain unloading operations at the Indian-run port of Chabahar, Iran (file image)
As India continues to revamp its domestic shipping sector, reports have emerged that it is eyeing control of strategic foreign terminals. According to a report by the Indian business newspaper Mint, the government is in the process of creating a port consortium, with the goal of venturing into the terminal operator business.
The consortium includes three state-owned agencies: India Ports Global Ltd (IPGL), Sargarmala Development Co Ltd (SDCL) and Indian Port Rail and Ropeway Corp (IPRCL). Primarily, the consortium will target development opportunities along key corridors that serve India’s national interests.
One example is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 4,474 mile multi-modal network connecting India to Russia, Iran, Central Asia and Europe. India has already committed to invest $120 million in the development of Iran’s Chabahar port, which is a key node along the INSTC. This investment came with a 10-year agreement with Iran for the operation of the port.
In addition, the consortium will also be targeting port infrastructure along the proposed India- Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious project was launched last year at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi. It will connect India to Europe by ship-to-rail connections through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Greece. India is already considering a terminal at Greece’s Port of Piraeus for its European exports.
According to Shipping Secretary TK Ramachandran, the three state agencies forming the consortium will have different roles. The IPGL will be responsible for the day-to-day operations of the foreign terminals. The IPRCL will handle construction of necessary infrastructure to support port operations, and the SDCL will focus on raising financial resources to fund the development projects.
The creation of the consortium comes against the backdrop of a number of deals that India has won to operate foreign ports. In July, India secured operational rights of a terminal of Bangladesh’s Mongla Port. IPGL’s proposal to run Sittwe port in Myanmar also got approval early this year. This gave India access to the strategic port on the Kaladan River.
Woods Hole and Matson Test Out Real-Time Whale Detection System
The thermal imaging device designed by WHOI researchers (Courtesy Woods Hole)
A new AI detection system may be able to help the shipping industry prevent collisions with whales. Researchers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) contend that ship strikes could decline drastically using a whale detection camera system for large commercial vessels. The cameras are mounted on a ship’s deck and use thermal imaging to detect a whale's body or spout, providing real-time information on their distance and bearing from a vessel. The aim is to provide the crew with enough warning to change course or speed.
The system, which uses thermal infrared cameras and is linked to an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm, can be mounted on commercial ships, cruise ships and fishing vessels. Ship strikes cause the deaths of an estimated 20,000 whales around the world annually. In the U.S., approximately 80 endangered and threatened whales are struck each year off the West Coast, and more than a third of all North Atlantic right whale deaths in the Eastern U.S. can be attributed to ship collisions.
The system's AI has been trained on examples of waves, birds, vessels, and whales, and it is only supposed to send out alerts of probable whale detections for verification. All probable whale detections are reviewed by a human within 15 seconds and transmitted to the vessels' captains.
To guarantee its effectiveness, the human-in-the-loop verification ensures that captains never receive false alerts, thus avoiding alert fatigue and building trust and confidence in the whale detection technology. Unlike human observation from planes and boats, the system does not require ambient light, so the cameras can spot whales at all hours, further improving collision avoidance.
“A highly stabilized thermal imaging camera is mounted on a ship and monitors the surface of the water for whale surfacings and exhalations, or blows,” said Daniel Zitterbart, WHOI Associate Scientist in Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering. “If a whale blows, its thermal signature is recognized by the integrated AI, and also alerts vessel crews within seconds to the presence of whales up to several kilometers away, which is enough time for most vessels to slow down or change course.”
In developing the technology, WHOI has partnered with Matson Navigation, a Hawaii-based ocean transportation and logistics services company that has provided $1 million in funding. Matson has also availed three of its ships involved in domestic shipping to test the effectiveness of the system.
The system has been mounted on Manulani and Manoa - vessels that serve the Hawaii trade lane - and the Kodiak, which serves Alaska. Using the three containerships is strategic considering the waters off the coast of Hawaii and up along the U.S. west coast are home to up to 16 species of whales. Humpback whales migrate from summer feeding grounds in Alaska down to Hawaii. Killer whales, blue whales, gray whales, and other species also frequent the regions.
After three months of testing, the results are proving to be encouraging. On the Manulani alone, early 1,200 verified detections of whales and dolphins were recorded at ranges up to 3.5 nautical miles.
“This initial data is very exciting for our team, as it gives us real-world feedback on how well the thermal infrared system is performing on a large container vessel platform,” noted Zitterbart.
Matson, which has made significant adjustments to its operating schedule and vessel routing along the West Coast to avoid whale conservation areas, intends to expand the use of the system across its fleet. The researchers also hope that other liners will install the technology on vessels in order to reduce strikes and be a positive force in the protection of marine animals.
Owner of Unlicensed Charter Boat Pleads Guilty for Fatal Capsizing
The owner and operator of an unlicensed and overcrowded charter boat that capsized in Hudson River in 2022 killing a woman and her nephew is facing 10 years in prison after pleading guilty to misconduct and neglect.
Richard Cruz, 32, admitted to causing the deaths of a 48-year-old woman and a seven-year-old boy following the capsizing of the speedboat Stimulus Money in the Hudson River in July 2022. Cruz is set to be sentenced in January next year and faces up to 10 years in prison.
Cruz had purchased the boat about three months earlier and conducted boat “tours” for paying customers on multiple occasions. However, he did not have United States Coast Guard (USCG) licensing or a certificate of inspection, which are required for a vessel to operate with paying customers on board.
On July 12, 2022, Cruz took Stimulus Money out on the Hudson with 13 people on board, exceeding the small boat's maximum capacity. Despite a small craft advisory for high winds and waves, he operated the boat at high speed, and it capsized.
When Stimulus Money flipped over, all 13 people were thrown overboard. 11 survivors were rescued by the NYPD, FDNY and good samaritan vessels. The woman and her nephew got trapped underneath the capsized vessel and were found unconscious 25 minutes later. They were pronounced deceased and the coroner determined that they had drowned.
Cruz has pleaded guilty to one count of misconduct and neglect of a ship officer resulting in death. “This prosecution should send a message to all captains and operators of commercial vessels that there will be consequences when they fail to follow the federal regulations and safety protocols that exist to keep passengers safe,” said Damian Williams, United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York.
Would Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz in a Conflict?
The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme (Wikipedia)
Should Israel mount its promised counter-attack in response to the Iranian missile blitz on Israel at the beginning of the month, Iran certainly has the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz if it wished to do so.
The Iranian coastline overlooks the Strait for more than 100 nautical miles, and Iran has a large number of missiles, drones, naval and aviation systems that could threaten ships in the Strait. Even limited Iranian attacks might be sufficient to close down traffic, should shipping companies be concerned about heightened risk and soaring insurance premiums.
Besides the frigates, missile boats and aviation assets of its regular and IRGC navies, Iran has shore batteries of anti-shipping missiles covering the strait. The IRGC has specialized for years in speedboat swarm attacks on merchant vessels, and it also has a mining capability that would be particularly effective in the shallow and constricted waters of the Straits.
But would Iran want to see conflict in the area and a closure of the waterway, which it depends on for its oil exports?
For Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, the straits are the only maritime link to the rest of the world; their economies are dependent on imports for basic necessities. Given the dependency of so many nations on oil, and on Gulf states on oil exports, a closure of the strait by Iran would almost certainly be met by some form of military response.
This in turn would close down the ability of Iran to use the strait for its own oil exports. Iran generates 65% of government revenues and 8% of its GDP from such exports. Without oil revenues, the Iranian government would be forced to cut subsidies on fuel and basic foodstuffs, which underpin the low prices enjoyed by Iran’s 91 million people. With a large percentage of the population already deeply unhappy with the government, an increase in prices could generate civil unrest on a scale that would threaten the future of Iran’s rulers and the IRGC security apparatus which keeps it in power.
Leaks from government sources, both in Washington and Tel Aviv, suggesting that Israel has agreed not to attack oil and nuclear facilities need to be treated with some skepticism, given the poor relations between the two administrations. But if attacks on oil and nuclear facilities were to be avoided, this would certainly reduce the risk of Iran resorting to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In any case, Israel is unlikely to have sufficient long-range attack assets to embark upon a wide-scale offensive against oil facilities. It might consider kinetic cyber attacks and sabotage of the type already used against deep-buried nuclear facilities.
Israel will certainly need to focus on destroying as much of Iran’s ballistic missile force as it can in order to prevent an Iranian counter-attack, which could cause widespred casualties and damage to targets in Israel. The attack on 1 October indicates Israel might be vulnerable to a concerted Iranian strike.
With 25 identified ballistic missile sites spead across Iran, each with mulitple silos and garaging for mobile drone and missile launchers, Israel will need every available bomb directed at this Iranian ballistic missile and drone infrastructure to cripple and close down any potential Iranian counter-attack.
25 identified Iranian ballistic missile/drone clusters, each with multiple silos and sites (Google Earth)
Nonetheless, Israel regards Iranian leadership of its Axis of Resistance as critical to the effectiveness of the forces attacking Israel on multiple fronts. If refomists in Iran could supplant religious hardliners who currently dominate the regime and are the driving force behind Iran’s regional expansionism, then Israel might wish to be a catalyst to this process. In this case, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz might bring about such a change, but it would be a huge gamble to believe that this aim could be achieved without a massive risk to global stability.
Iran has concluded an annual search and rescue joint exercise with Oman. These exercises reflect the cooperation which takes place between the two nations which operate the Traffic Separation Scheme in the Straits of Hormuz, and the need to practice drills in case of emergencies in the crowded waters of the Straits.
The Iranian Moudge Class frigate IRINS Jamaran (F76) and the Sina Class fast attack craft IRINS Zereh (P235) took part in the exercise, which was conducted in Omani waters.
IRINS Jamaran (Mohammad Sadegh Heydari / CC BY 3.0)
IRINS Jamaran docked in Muscat only days ago on its return from a four-month deployment to the Red Sea as the flagship of the 98th Flotilla. Two IRGC Navy Hendijan Class patrol boat boats also participated in the exercise, alongside units of the Omani Navy and police search and rescue helicopters.
While the exercise at sea was ongoing, a counter-terrorism exercise took place on land at the Jebel Akhdar training area, involving special force troops from the Iranian Army’s 65th Airborne brigade based at Mehrabad International Airport. The 65th Airborne Brigade suffered heavy casualties and played a critical role in defeating the communist insurgency in Dhofar in the early 1970s.
WWIII
Chinese Crew "Gravely Threatened" By Collision With Philippine Vessel
Two crewmembers aboard a Chinese trawler pause to watch as their vessel hits a Philippine fishery patrol ship (BFAR)
On October 11, a Chinese maritime militia vessel made contact with a Philippine fisheries vessel near Thitu Island, causing minor damage to the patrol ship's starboard bow.
"The [maritime militia] vessel 00108 conducted dangerous maneuvers and tried to block the path of BRP Datu Cabaylo. These dangerous maneuvers caused the sideswiping and collision with the BFAR vessel, which sustained minor dents in its starboard bow," the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) said in a statement.
Video from the scene shows that the Chinese government maritime militia trawler 00108 - a large, modern vessel - was overtaking the smaller BFARpatrol ship Datu Cabaylo on the starboard side at a slow bell. The trawler closed to within a few feet, then gently shouldered the fishery vessel's starboard bow, rubbing against a hanging fender.
Four Chinese crewmembers were on deck watching casually, and the video appears to show that they made no attempt to deploy their own fenders or alert their crewmates in the wheelhouse, instead chatting amongst themselves and taking video with their phones. One Chinese crewmember came face-to-face with the crew on the Cabaylo's bow, within conversational speaking distance (below).
Footage taken from aboard the Cabaylo appears to show that the trawler's port quarter also made contact, this time with a metal-to-metal clang. Again, a militia crewmember was on deck and watched the collision unfold without apparent concern.
Under COLREGS, the overtaking vessel is responsible for avoiding a collision until it is past and clear.
Though the Chinese trawler's crew appeared relaxed and unconcerned as they struck the fishery vessel, they were "gravely threatened," according to the Chinese government.
"The truth is that Philippine official vessels sailed dangerously in waters under China’s jurisdiction and collided with a Chinese fishing boat conducting regular operation there," alleged Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning. "The behavior . . . gravely threatens the safety of Chinese fishing boats and crew."
The incident occurred within the western Philippine exclusive economic zone, an area recognized under international law and affirmed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. China claims control over the region under its historically-based "nine dash line" policy, and its maritime forces routinely water-cannon, shoulder and blockade Philippine vessels in the area.
To foreign audiences, China denies the existence of its maritime militia, and it maintains that the well-maintained, modern and commercially inactive trawlers are crewed by Chinese fishermen. To the domestic audience, the maritime militia is openly advertised as an adjunct of the People's Liberation Army, crewed by trained paramilitary forces and used for presence operations.
Alaska's "Imploding" Fishing Industry Has Shed 38,000 Jobs
Falling revenue and rising costs have hit Alaska's fishing industry hard, according to a new study by NOAA Fisheries. In an economic review requested by fishermen and processors, NOAA found that profitability dropped by half from 2021-23, and wholesale prices dropped by a quarter in 2022-23. This left the Alaskan seafood industry with a total direct loss of $1.8 billion in 2022-3 and the loss of about 38,000 jobs.
"For many Alaskans the decline of their seafood industry affects their pocketbooks, presents food security concerns, and impacts their way of life, sense of place, community, and identity," NOAA noted. "In the face of evolving climate-driven impacts to ecosystems and fisheries in the region, these recent market disruptions undermine the capacity of all segments of the seafood industry and associated fishing communities to be resilient and survive in fisheries."
Alaskan fishermen face a confluence of challenges, including declining consumer demand; reduced purchasing by retailers, who had backstock to clear out of their freezers in 2022-23; competition from Russian fishermen, who catch the same products on their side of the EEZ line and undercut U.S. suppliers on price; and lingering economic effects of the pandemic. These impacts have meant plummeting dockside prices for many species and regions. Many Alaskan fishermen ended the 2023 season with little or no profit.
Processing plants have buckled under the same pressures: multiple facilities have been sold to new owners, temporarily closed or shut down indefinitely in fishing-dependent communities across Western Alaska, like False Pass, Chignik, King Cove, Alitak and St. Paul. These realignments have left many fishermen without a buyer for their catch, and have hit fishing towns hard. For example, the closure of the Peter Pan plant in King Cove took away about 70 percent of community tax revenue overnight.
Fishermen also have to contend with the near-collapse of many target species populations. In Western Alaska, Chinook salmon and chum salmon runs fell off by more than 80 percent in 2022. The lucrative snow crab fishery was devastated by a marine heatwave in 2018-21, leading to a fishery closure in 2022. This has left crabbers high and dry, and many have turned to shoreside employment while hoping for an improvement in conditions.
Alaska's state legislature has appointed an eight-member task force to study the "unprecedented economic implosion of our industry," as sponsor Sen. Bert Stedman told the Alaska Beacon. The federal government is also stepping in with millions in disaster-assistance funds - but only for those who have been hurt by "fishery resource disasters," not for those who are under pressure from market forces.
Should Zelensky's government be afraid of far-right groups?
Ukrainian deputy Oleksandr Merezhko sparked a stern online backlash after publicly warning about the threat posed by what he described as a growing far-right movement in Ukrainian society. Ukraine’s far-right fringe remains a sensitive topic in the war-torn country – and an easy target for Russian propaganda.
It was a startling statement by anyone’s standards. Speaking to the Financial Times at the start of October, Ukrainian deputy Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a member of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, said that ultranationalist elements within the war-torn country posed a very real threat to the government – and one that could one day stand in the way of any attempt to negotiate an end to years of brutal fighting.
“There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation,” he said. “The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy.”
Although he didn’t name names, Merezhko’s words clearly struck a nerve. Dmytro Kucharchuk, a commander in the Third Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces, took to social media to call the deputy a far-left coward. Another brigade commander, Maksym Zhorin, accused Marezhko of having no idea what he was talking about, saying in no uncertain terms that yes, in fact, negotiations on Russia’s conditions would always be seen as capitulation.
“As for the right wing, they are the basis of the country's security,” he added.
It’s not hard to see why both men would feel that Merezhko had been talking about them. The Third Assault Brigade was created by veterans of the far-right Azov Battalion as a volunteer unit following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, before being folded into the nation’s armed forces. It is led by Azov Battalion founder and far-right politician Andriy Biletsky, who in 2010 reportedly called for Ukraine to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade” against what he described as “Semite-led Untermenschen” – or subhumans.
As for the formal successor to the Azov Battalion itself, now absorbed into Ukraine’s National Guard as the 12th Azov Assault Brigade – or Azov Brigade – it has publicly tried to distance itself from its white supremacist roots. This tactic was rewarded in August when the US lifted a long-standing ban on supplying weapons and training to the group, having long been leery of directly arming what critics described as a far-right force credibly accused of violating international humanitarian law in the Donbas. Beyond the fringe
Just how far the Azov Battalion’s successor has shed its ultranationalist underpinnings remains a source of fierce debate. For its supporters, the Azov Brigade has become an irreproachable symbol of unyielding resistance, having held Russian forces at bay for months in Mariupol's sprawling Azovstal steelworks before finally surrendering the city – and leaving hundreds of Azov prisoners in Russian captivity.
For its detractors though, the brigade’s claims to have left its extremist roots behind ring hollow. Critics have pointed to the endurance of neo-Nazi symbols such as the “wolf’s hook” and “black sun” – both historically used by the Nazi Waffen-SS – as well as its current leader’s background in the so-called White Boys’ Club, a far-right football hooligan group. Despite the official dissolution of the Azov Battalion in 2015, a broader Azov movement has flourished, featuring publishing houses, children's summer camps, martial arts competitions and an urban vigilante force.
Nor are the Azov Brigade and Third Assault Brigade the only armed groups accused of far-right leanings. Although not officially part of Ukraine’s armed forces, the Christian nationalist Bratstvo, or Brotherhood, battalion, and the Azov-spawned Kraken unit are two volunteer forces that have been active on – and sometimes beyond – the frontlines. The far-right Russia Volunteer Corps, led by Russian neo-Nazi militant Denis “White Rex” Kasputin, has also fought against Putin’s troops on their home turf with what is believed to be Ukraine’s backing.
The presence of a far-right fringe in Ukraine and its armed forces remains an awkward subject. Russian President Vladimir Putin has for years tried to legitimise Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine as a necessary blow against what he repeatedly calls a “neo-Nazi” regime – a label that sits unconvincingly on Jewish Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And while far-right parties such as Svoboda, Right Sector and Biletsky’s National Corps have tried to capitalise on the country’s nationalist fervour by launching bids for political power, they have found little public support. Researchers point to the far-right coalition’s abysmal performance in the 2019 federal elections, where the Svoboda-led group gained less than 3 percent of the vote, as evidence that while no country in Europe is free from far-right ideologues, Ukraine’s ultranationalists remain a long way from the halls of power. Tough choices
But some experts have said that fear of fuelling the Kremlin’s propaganda has left Ukraine’s civil society unwilling to confront the extent to which the far right has leveraged its role in the fight against Russian forces to its own advantage.
Marta Havryshko, a Ukrainian historian focusing on sexual violence in the Holocaust, has been a vocal critic of what she describes as Western and Ukrainian media’s downplaying of the presence of far-right groups in Ukraine.
“The far right in Ukraine, of course their influence was exaggerated by Kremlin propaganda to justify the full-scale invasion and military aggression against Ukraine,” she said. “But it doesn’t automatically mean that Ukraine doesn’t have a problem with far-right street violence, with threatening feminist activists, LGBTQI activists, with promoting anti-democratic values, with training Ukrainian youth and indoctrinating them in racist and neo-Nazi ideas. It doesn’t mean automatically that we don’t have a problem with the far right in Ukraine.”
Lesia Bidochko, a senior lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and KIU fellow at European University Viadrina, said that Ukraine’s far right had gained some degree of social legitimacy following its support of the 2014 Euromaidan protests and fierce fighting against the separatist uprisings that soon followed.
“Faced with growing pro-Russian separatism, the government made the controversial decision to arm and utilise far-right militias as a key force in resisting separatist movements,” she said. “This development not only fuelled domestic tensions but also played into Moscow’s propaganda, which sought to legitimise its intervention by painting Ukraine as being overrun by extremist elements.”
Bidochko added that while these organised movements had carried little weight in parliament in the years that followed, political leaders and oligarchs alike had forged short-lived alliances with militant groups to harass their rivals and protect their own commercial interests.
“On one hand, the rise of the far right can be attributed to Russia’s aggression, which has reignited the fervour of Ukrainian nationalists regarding territorial integrity and consolidation of the Ukrainian nation,” she said. “On the other, it is also a consequence of Ukraine’s opportunistic political elites, who are willing to engage with even overt neo-Nazi elements to further their interests and gain political profit.”
For Havryshko, this willingness to turn a blind eye to far-right groups stemmed in part from the urgency of the fight against Russian invasion and occupation.
“The main reason is the concept of the lesser evil. People are thinking about Russian aggression as an existential threat,” she said. “So people just choose the lesser evil – they don’t disagree that some of them are racists and neo-Nazis, but they’re our racists and neo-Nazis, and we will negotiate with them and put controls in place over them and everything will be okay.” In the spotlight
For some, it’s a strategy that seems to be paying off. Bidochko argued that by integrating former far-right paramilitary groups into formal military structures, the Ukrainian government may be succeeding in drowning out the more extreme voices in these units.
“Right brigades have become highly visible in media and benefit from superior fundraising and support, as seen with units like the Third Assault Brigade, founded by former members of the Azov Battalion,” she said. “Despite the historical far-right associations with Azov, many ordinary Ukrainians now join these brigades more because of their visibility and better maintenance – due to superior fundraising – than for ideological reasons. This has diluted the concentration of fighters with extreme far-right ideologies within these units.”
Not everyone’s convinced. Havryshko said that Azov’s outsized place in the public imagination only strengthened far-right figures still closely associated with the now-defunct battalion.
“The media contributes to this image of brave, unbreakable men who never give up and who are ready to die for their nation,” she said. “But this is still a political project – and their aim is to use the war to gain political benefits, and to gain power.”
“I understand Ukraine is using all available resources because of the lack of manpower,” she added. “But they are not only using them – they are giving them credit, and they are giving them political and symbolic capital.”
Is this, then, the growing threat Merezhko is warning us about? Anton Shekhovtsov, director of Austria’s Centre for Democratic Integrity, said he believed there was little evidence that this symbolic capital would translate into real political weight.
“When Merezhko is saying that the far right is getting stronger, well, first I don’t believe it – there is no indication that the far right is growing, there are no public opinion polls,” he said. “All political life in Ukraine is now paused, it’s halted because of the war. And the existing far-right parties – there is no indication that they’re getting stronger, or that they’re getting any form of support. Of course they make some radical statements and arguments, but people are just not buying it. I would say the only chance it could grow is if some other parties try to use them somehow for their own political games.”
Shekhovstov said that the deputy’s comments were better understood in the context of rising calls for Kyiv and Moscow to resume peace talks – even at the cost of giving up Ukrainian territory seized and occupied by Russian troops. Even after years of desperate fighting, polls continue to show sparse public support for these kinds of concessions.
“He is trying to show that not everybody in Ukraine is going to be happy about eventual negotiations. But he is referring to political parties that have no real support,” he said.
“There will always be radical people who will call for fighting on to the end, but their percentage is miniscule – they’re not a force that should even be considered really. Even in the army – there are some people in different regiments and military units, but they don’t make the weather, so to speak.”
An organised core of far-right militants, an exhausted generation trained to fight and kill, a story waiting to be told about liberals and leftists who stabbed their soldiers in the back to buy a humiliating peace – for Havryshko, the parallels with the Weimar Republic are easy enough to draw.
And although Bidochko maintained that the far right was far from alone in rejecting suggestions that Ukraine cede even an inch of territory to Russia, they could be well-placed to profit off the rage and despair that such a treaty may produce.
“If Ukraine were to sign a peace treaty on Russia’s terms, it could create an opening for far-right groups like Azov to regain political significance by capitalising on public dissatisfaction,” she said. “A sense of betrayal following major concessions to the Kremlin could potentially shift public support toward these factions.”
France's plan to tackle deficit sparks outcry from left-wing lawmakers, unions
France’s minority government is facing heavy backlash from left-wing lawmakers and unions after proposing to slash the state budget by €60 billion next year as it aims to plug the country's deficit. The finance bill, which includes major tax hikes and spending cuts, is set for debate in parliament next week.
France’s new government has unveiled its 2025 belt-tightening budget bill, with plans for major tax hikes and spending cuts aimed at tackling the country’s giant deficit.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier, a conservative, described the massive hole in the public finances as a “ sword of Damocles” that could bring the euro zone’s second-biggest economy "to the edge of the precipice.”
Still, his budget plans have angered many in the country and are expected to be harshly debated in parliament in the coming weeks, with his government's survival at stake.
France has a high level of public spending driven by generous social welfare programs, healthcare and education — and a heavy tax burden that falls short of covering the costs. For over two decades, the country struggled to keep its deficit below the European Union’s target of 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
France's debt increased significantly because of the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. President Emmanuel Macron applied a “whatever it takes” strategy based on state intervention to save jobs and businesses, including a massive partial unemployment program and subsidized childcare leave.
Following the virus crisis, Macron’s former centrist government vowed to put the country’s finances back on track. But budget overruns and lower-than-expected tax revenues instead dug a bigger hole. This year’s budget deficit is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP.
Barnier, appointed in September following surprise legislative elections, has vowed to reduce it to 5% next year.
France is under pressure from the European Union’s executive body to reduce its debt. Earlier this year, the EU’s executive arm placed it under a formal procedure for countries running up excessive debt, the first step in a long process before member states can be hemmed in and pushed to take corrective action.
Barnier decided to delay the target date for reaching the euro zone’s 3% deficit goal from 2027 to 2029.
The situation also affects France’s credibility on financial markets, making its borrowing costs surge. 'Living beyond its means'
France “is in the situation of a family living beyond its means,” the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said on France Info radio. "Therefore it has to reduce its expenses and increase its income a little. First of all, we need to control our spending, because when you compare France to our European neighbors, we have the same social model, the same public service model, but it costs us a lot more.”
“We need an effort from just about everyone," Villeroy de Galhau said.
The Barnier government unveiled plans for a 60 billion euro ($65 billion) budget squeeze next year. That involves raising taxes -- a risky move in a country already known for its heavy tax burden.
Plans include the creation of new taxes — presented as temporary — on about 24,000 wealthiest households and on the profits within France of hundreds of large companies.
The bill also plans to increase taxes on electricity, air travel and polluting cars.
The government is also seeking ways to cut spending, including freezing state pensions for six months next year and reducing support for apprenticeships and subsidized contracts.
France’s generous social security program also faces spending cuts, through measures such as cutting reimbursements for medical costs and sick pay.
The defense budget, which received a big boost following the war in Ukraine, is expected to be preserved. Criticism from the left
Left-wing opposition lawmakers and labor unions are criticizing the “austerity budget” as unfair, saying it could deeply affect millions of low-income families, apprentices, retirees and small businesses.
“The cuts in public spending and the social safety net have a greater impact on the lives of the working and middle classes,” said hard-left lawmaker Eric Coquerel, head of the Finance committee in the National Assembly.
“Employees and pensioners are once again being asked to pay the bill," the far-left labor union CGT said.
The CFDT, a more moderate left-wing union, also criticized Barnier's plans, warning of “a significant deterioration in public services such as education, and a further weakening of our healthcare system."
Employers’ unions, too, warned against the potential impact of tax hikes on businesses, including possible job losses. The government’s plans “will result in a sharp rise in costs for companies,” the Confederation of Small and Medium Size Firms (CPME) said. Parliamentary debate
The budget battle will be fiercely debated in the lower house of parliament, where the governing coalition lacks a majority.
France’s National Assembly is divided into three major blocs: the left-wing New Popular Front, the far-right National Rally party, and Macron’s centrist allies who made a deal with the conservatives to be able to govern.
Barnier’s budget approach has angered many, including centrists within his own coalition who see tax reduction as a key requirement for preserving France’s competitiveness in the world.
Left-wing opposition lawmakers will seek to subsequently amend the bill, while some in the far-right have criticized plans for major concessions from the low and middle classes.
With its survival at stake, the government may have to backtrack on some of the planned measures because losing a budget vote would prompt a deep political crisis.
Barnier is forced to rely on the far right’s good will to avoid being ousted by a no-confidence vote.
Another option for the government would be to use a special constitutional power to pass the budget without a vote, but that could also trigger a no-confidence motion, with an uncertain outcome.
The budget bill needs to be approved by the end of the year.
“High political fragmentation and a minority government complicate France’s ability to deliver on sustainable fiscal consolidation policies,” Fitch Ratings agency said last week as it lowered France’s outlook from “stable” to “negative.”
(AP)
In clash with Netanyahu, Macron says Israel PM 'mustn't forget his country created by UN decision'
Referring to the resolution adopted in November 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly on the plan to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state, Macron warned Israel’s prime minister not to forget that “his country was created by a UN decision”, a few days after the Israeli ambassador to France was summoned, and Israel repeatedly fired on UN peacekeepers.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shakes hands with French President Emmanuel Macron after their joint press conference in Jerusalem on October 24, 2023.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should not forget his country was created as a result of a resolution adopted by the United Nations, French President Emmanuel Macron told cabinet on Tuesday, urging Israel to abide by UN decisions.
Tensions have increased between Netanyahu and Macron with the French leader last week insisting that stopping the export of weapons used by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon was the only way to stop the conflicts.
France has also repeatedly denounced Israeli fire against UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, who include a French contingent.
“Mr Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a decision of the UN,” Macron told the weekly French cabinet meeting, referring to the resolution adopted in November 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly on the plan to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state.
“Therefore this is not the time to disregard the decisions of the UN,” he added, as Israel wages a ground offensive against the Iran-backed Shiite militant group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where the UN peacekeepers are deployed.
His comments from the closed door meeting at the Elysee Palace were quoted by a participant who spoke to AFP and asked not to be named.
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 states that only the Lebanese army and the UN peacekeeping mission UNIFIL should be deployed in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu on Sunday called on the UN to move the 10,000 strong peacekeeping force, who include 700 French troops, deployed in south Lebanon out of “harm’s way”, saying Hezbollah was using them as “human shields”.
(AFP)
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Curfew extended in France's Martinique after riots over spiraling food prices France
Residents of Martinique will be placed under curfew until October 21 in what authorities are calling an effort to protect the people and property of the French overseas territory. One person was killed last week in renewed unrest over skyrocketing food prices.
Authorities in the French Caribbean island of Martinique have extended a night-time curfew following a new wave of riots over spiraling food prices, while talks between authorities and protesters have stalled.
In recent weeks the island of 350,000 people has been shaken by violent protests over high food prices.
During a fresh wave of troubles last week, one person was killed and nearly 30 police received injuries as protesters looted shops, erected burning barricades and clashed with members of law enforcement.
The curfew, which was ordered from 9:00 pm to 5:00 am (0100 GMT-0900 GMT) last week, has been extended until October 21, the prefecture of Martinique said in a statement on Monday.
The "exceptional measure" is aimed at "guaranteeing the safety of people and property," authorities said.
Unrest has recently ebbed, with the prefecture saying no major incidents have been recorded over the past 48 hours.
Pupils in primary and secondary schools are set to gradually return to classrooms from Tuesday, education authorities said.
Residents of France's overseas territories have long complained about the high cost of living. In Martinique, food prices are 40 percent higher than in mainland France.
The protests were launched in early September by the Assembly for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RPPRAC), which demands that food prices be aligned with mainland France.
The government has held a series of meetings with activists and retailers to discuss ways to bring down prices. However, new talks would not take place due to a lack of a "new concrete and viable proposal," the president of Martinique's governing body, Serge Letchimy, said on Monday evening.
In response, the activists warned they were ready to continue protests against the high cost of living.
"We are a people legitimately demanding the right to access food at respectable prices, and all we have been given so far is repression," RPPRAC leader Rodrigue Petitot told AFP.
25 identified Iranian ballistic missile/drone clusters, each with multiple silos and sites (Google Earth)
