Friday, October 18, 2024

Russia's USC Wants to Explore for Oil Under Arctic Ice Using Robots

As Russia intensifies the development of its vast petroleum resources in the Arctic, the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) has revealed a proposed design for an advanced underwater robot system that is intended to operate under the ice. The design is part of USC’s Project Iceberg, which is intended to allow year-round development of offshore oil and gas in the Arctic.

The underwater robot system consists of deep-sea geological drilling rigs, capable of drilling wells and obtaining core sample at sea depths of up to 4,500 meters. A prototype of this rig has already been manufactured and tested. In addition, the robotic complex includes a group of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) capable of carrying out seismic exploration in hard-to-reach areas of the Arctic shelf, regardless of the season.

The new details were revealed this week by two senior USC executives at a shipbuilding conference in St. Petersburg – the Advisor to the General Director of USC, Vasily Boytsov, and the General Designer of Marine Structures, Evgeny Toropov.The robotic submarines were initially designed in 2017 by the Russian Foundation for Advanced Research Projects (FAR). At the time, the designers estimated that the complete system would take 10 years to build. However, delays in financing are likely to affect the timelines, and the update from USC indicates the project is in the implementation phase.

The Arctic is the powerhouse of the Russian energy industry, contributing an estimated 80 percent of Russia’s natural gas production and 20 percent of its crude production, according to the International Energy Agency. Now that it lacks access to Western oil and gas expertise due to sanctions, Russia is looking for new ways to move projects forward without external assistance.

China's Belt and Road Initiative Rolls Out "Green Bonds"

Gwadar Port, one of the Belt and Road's most prominent investments (Paranda / CC BY SA 3.0)

[By Jiang Mengnan]

In June this year, the Bank of China (BOC) issued the first sustainable development bonds for which all funds raised are directed towards countries affiliated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), according to the bank’s website. The bonds totaled $940 million and were issued simultaneously through BOC branches in Macau, Hungary , and Panama in US dollars and yuan.

Sustainable development bonds, or sustainability bonds, are issued to finance a combination of both green and social projects, often simultaneously. Banks typically use the raised money to provide loans for sustainability projects. Meanwhile, “green” bonds raise financing for eco-friendly projects such as renewable power stations and green transport schemes, and “social” bonds support projects with positive social impacts.

The release of the sustainability bonds is the latest example of Chinese financial institutions’ support for green Belt and Road investment, experts have told Dialogue Earth. Demand for financing that spurs green development has been growing for several years in developing countries, and China is now using green bonds and these new sustainability bonds to leverage private capital in support of “high-quality development” within BRI partner countries.

China was the world’s largest issuing market for green bonds in both 2022 and 2023, according to the 2023 Green Bond Report from the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), a non-profit seeking to mobilize global capital for climate action. In 2023, China’s issuances of green bonds abroad were in the range of $10 billion, or 10.9% of its annual total. This suggests that, compared to domestic issuance levels, there is still room for growth.

Belt and Road sustainability bonds: a history

Experts have told Dialogue Earth that while this most recent sustainability bond is the first of its kind, it is similar to other Belt and Road green bonds issued by BOC and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in recent years. The latter issued $2.15 billion of green bonds through its Luxembourg branch back in October 2017.

According to BOC’s disclosure, use of proceeds from this issuance of sustainability bonds complies with the environmental, social and sustainability guidelines and principles issued by the International Capital Market Association (ICMA). The funds raised will be used to support existing and future BOC investments in green and social projects, such as electric-vehicle battery manufacturing in Hungary, renewable-energy transmission in Slovakia, wind power in Uzbekistan and sustainable fisheries in Chile.

The BOC’s disclosure shows that the new tranche of bonds has attracted investors in the UK, Switzerland, UAE, Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia, among others. These investors include government institutions, asset management companies, insurers and banks.

Information on specific investors is not publicly available, but one expert at a stock exchange who wished to have their name withheld told Dialogue Earth: “At present, these bonds are most likely being bought by long-term BOC and ICBC investors, and perhaps by others caught up in the green investment boom.”

Greening BRI investments

China’s government and businesses have been looking at greening the Belt and Road Initiative in recent years, and in 2021 the country announced it would no longer build new coal-fired power plants abroad. The following year, the government updated its 2017 advice on promoting green development along BRI routes, with emphasis on “regulating companies’ environmental activities abroad”. The end of new coal-power projects abroad was also reiterated, along with a call for more green investment.

Jackie Lu, senior academic researcher at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center, told Dialogue Earth that according to their databases, since 2021, China has stopped providing new loans to fossil-fuel-dedicated projects, including natural gas, in BRI countries, and that the most heavily invested projects now include hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and grid developments.

BRI engagement in the form of financial investments and signed agreements rebounded in 2023 after several years of contraction, with some 212 deals worth $92.4 billion, according to the China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2023, published by the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai. China’s overall energy-related engagement in 2023 was the greenest since the BRI’s inception in 2013: in 2023, China’s solar and wind energy engagement was about $7.9 billion – about 28% of energy engagement – with an additional 6% ($1.6 billion) for hydropower.

However, Lu says that China’s main approach to projects in BRI countries, which involves issuing development-focused bank loans and offering support through multilateral financial institutions, presents two challenges. First, less private capital is mobilized, and second, it could be difficult to track the funds and assess their “greenness” because of poor transparency in some of the loan projects.

A Chinese green finance researcher who did not wish to be named told Dialogue Earth that financial institutions can potentially address these challenges by issuing green bonds to raise finance, then proceeding to make loans.

Pros and cons of Belt and Road green bonds

Bonds are a great way of leveraging private capital in support of green investment and development as bond buyers are usually private investors. The green finance researcher noted that the rate of default with green bonds is generally lower than for ordinary bonds. This is due to clear-cut standards and funds typically being allocated to long-term and stable projects, which risk-averse investors appreciate.

There is more transparency around the fate of funds raised by banks via bonds than through other means such as customer deposits, meaning greater peace of mind for investors, the researcher said. Any change in use of proceeds during the life of the bond must legally be disclosed, leaving little scope for greenwashing.

Also, financial institutions in BRI countries – which tend to be in developing regions and have low credit ratings – may need to set the interest on their bonds at rates higher than 10% to attract investors, Xie Wenhong, head of the China programme at the Climate Bonds Initiative, told Dialogue Earth. Bonds from Chinese banks – which enjoy high international credit ratings – can facilitate financing at lower rates of interest, easing pressure on the relevant countries and reducing risk for investors. The interest rate for the BOC sustainability bond is 2.82%, for instance.

However, green bonds worldwide face a major challenge: the return on investment is no more appealing than for that of other kinds of bonds. The green finance researcher gave the example of the World Bank issuing $150 million worth of five-year bonds in 2022 for the protection of black rhinos in South Africa: “The Rhino Bond featured various innovations and attracted enthusiastic media coverage, but ended up being bought mainly by charitable foundations, owing to the uncertain rate of return and the bond’s dependence on sustainable development outcomes.”

China’s green bonds face a similar situation. As a study from Tianfeng Securities indicates, they “can attract interest in the early stages due to their relative scarcity, but it is hard to maintain that enthusiasm over the long term”. The study recommends policy guidance to enhance the liquidity and allocation value of green bonds. One such example is by establishing a specific yield curve for green bonds – which shows the relationship between interest rates and time until maturity – as this will provide a more accurate reference for investors. Other examples include lowering the risk weight and introducing tax incentives for investing in green bonds.

Tightening standards and aligning with international equivalents

Green bonds issued abroad by China also have to compete with other similar foreign-issued products. This prompts the question of alignment with relevant international standards. “The degree of alignment is actually very high, on the whole,” noted Xie. He told Dialogue Earth that China came into closer alignment with international requirements following the 2021 removal of “clean coal use” from its green-bond catalogue.

Another former problem is fragmented regulation. Until the 2023 reform of China’s financial regulatory system, corporate bonds were regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), enterprise bonds by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and financial bonds by the People’s Bank of China. This led to inconsistencies inD regulatory reach and requirements. For example, to meet the requirements of enterprise-issued green bonds, it used to be sufficient to deploy more than 50% of their proceeds on green projects.

Enterprise versus corporate bonds

This first changed with the 2022 release of the China Green Bond Principles, which require that "100% of the proceeds from green bond issuances be directed into green projects." According to the CBI report, the proportion of green bonds meeting the requirement has rapidly increased since their release, surpassing 98% in 2023.

In addition, the financial regulatory system underwent major reform in March 2023. Review and approval of the issuance of enterprise bonds, which was originally the responsibility of the NDRC, now comes under the CSRC, along with other corporate bonds. According to Xie Wenhong, this could further harmonize the regulation of green bonds.

“The standards for Chinese green bonds are now more in line with international standards, both in terms of the green bond taxonomy and use-of-proceeds percentages,” says Xie. He added that the problems he mentioned generally only apply for green bonds issued within China. “For bonds issued abroad, such as Belt and Road sustainability bonds, it is normally the case that international standards like those of the ICMA or CBI, which meet the requirements of international investors, have [already] been adopted for a while.”

The Belt and Road green bond market is developing, but remains relatively small compared with China’s overall levels of investment in BRI projects. As the CBI report notes, with China introducing a series of economic stimulus policies and the US Federal Reserve entering a cycle of rate cutting, China’s overseas issuance of green and sustainability bonds is expected to pick up. If Chinese banks can further grow the scale of such bonds, they will be able to better support the energy transition and sustainable development of countries along BRI routes.

Jiang Mengnan is the strategic communications officer at Dialogue Earth, based in London. She joined in 2022 and is also a journalist specializing in sustainable finance and ESG development. She used to work in ESG consulting and communications in both private and non-profit sectors, and holds the title of Certified ESG Analyst (CESGA) from the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies (EFFAS).

This article appears courtesy of Dialogue Earth and may be found in its original form here.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Russian Man Survives for 67 Days Adrift in the Frigid Sea of Okhotsk

Russian border guards — Courtesy Russian Border Service

A Russian man survived a two-month ordeal at sea in a rubber dinghy in the remote Sea of Okhotsk after his engine failed on a whalewatching outing - and he may face criminal charges for making the trip. He had brought his brother and teenage nephew along, and they died before they could be saved.

Russian national Mikhail Pichugin, 45, his brother and his 15-year-old nephew departed Sakhalin Island in August for a trip to the remote Shantar Islands. The rugged archipelago is known for its scenery and wildlife, including whales.

On August 9, they began their return to the port of Okha, Sakhalin. However, they never arrived, and authorities mounted a search. After a month of searching and a series of storms, the effort was called off, as officials assumed that the men could not have survived the rough weather and cold water.

The men were comparatively well-supplied for survival, with two weeks of food, life jackets, gallons of water and flares, according to RIA Novosti. Pichugin alone managed to make it to safety, thanks in part to chance. His rubber dinghy was spotted by a fishing trawler, and though the crew initially thought that it was too small to have any occupants, they checked anyways. Pichugin, sitting next to the remains of his brother and his nephew in the raft, waved them down. After 67 days at sea, he had lost 110 pounds and was physically in weak condition, but he was alive. The survivor, the bodies and the dinghy were all recovered aboard the trawler for a return to shore.

Pichugin's ordeal may not be over, though: he faces a criminal investigation into the deaths of his brother and nephew, and questions about why he navigated his small dinghy more than two nautical miles from shore - a violation of Russian safety regulations.

UK Targets Sovcomflot With New Sanctions on Shadow Fleet Tankers

The government of the UK has placed 18 more tankers and four LNG carriers under sanctions for their participation in the Russian "shadow fleet," the lightly-regulated tanker pool that carries an estimated 70 percent of Russia's seaborne petroleum exports. It is the largest round of tanker sanctions that the UK has carried out to date, and it serves as a symbol of objection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In a statement, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that he has made it his "personal mission" to constrain the Kremlin and its energy revenue stream in order to "combat malign Russian activity at every turn."

The UK Foreign Ministry specifically named Russian state tanker company Sovcomflot - once a blue-chip vessel operator - as a target of the sanctions action. "Today we have targeted even more of [Sovcomflot's] ships, further turning the screw on the mechanisms the Kremlin uses to fund its illegal war," the ministry said in a statement.

The list includes many former Sovcomflot vessels that have been reflagged in Gabon and transferred to Stream Ship Management, an opaque UAE-based firm that holds multiple ex-Sovcomflot ships. Many of these vessels still bear the company's "SCF" prefix, like the SCF Samotlor, or retain their former Russian names, like the Moskovsky Prospect.

The UK sanctions listing cuts these vessels off from the UK's world-leading marine insurance market, and it bans them from entering any UK port. However, any foreign entities can still transact with these vessels without risking UK penalties, and most shadow fleet vessels have already ceased using International Group insurance.

The government of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that it was taking action because of the heightened risk of a casualty from the shadow fleet's "flagrant violation of basic safety standards." The outcome of an accident involving a Russian tanker could include pollution of the UK's shores, as well as the possibility of a disruption to commerce in a busy sea lane.

The pollution is already occurring, even without a major spill. Working with SkyTruth, Politico has linked the Russia-serving shadow fleet with a series of oil slicks large enough to be detected by satellite. The pattern suggests discharges of oily waste on the high seas, a cost-saving measure that is illegal but common for internationally-trading merchant vessels.

The slicks are a preview of what might happen in the event of a major shadow fleet casualty, experts told Politico.

“The oil spills and risk of slicks are horrendous,” said Isaac Levi of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). “Beyond the environmental damage, some of which will be irreversible, it’s a huge impact to coastal states that have to bear the cost of cleaning this up.”

In July, Prime Minister Starmer announced a "call to action" on the risks of the shadow fleet. The petition now has about four dozen signatories, including the United States. The U.S. government's secondary sanctions apply globally, to any foreign entities, and the penalty for noncompliance is loss of access to the U.S. financial system - a potent deterrent for most legitimate international firms.

Morocco Wants to Grow its Domestic Shipbuilding Industry

Casablanca Shipyard (Agence Nationale des Ports)

To complement its rapidly developing maritime sector, Morocco is gearing up to support domestic shipbuilding. Early this week, the Moroccan public think-tank the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) opened a consultation for a national shipbuilding roadmap. In its 2023 annual report, CESE identified shipbuilding as a potential high-growth sector for the Moroccan economy.

“The shipbuilding industry is pivotal in building a robust and competitive national commercial fleet, which is essential for economic sovereignty and reducing reliance on maritime imports,” said CESE President Ahmed Reda Chami.

CESE’s call for a national shipbuilding strategy is a follow-up to a speech delivered last year by King Mohammed VI. In the speech, the King directed the development “of a strong, competitive national commercial marine fleet.” The Ministry of Transport and Logistics is currently undertaking a study on the expansion of the existing Moroccan commercial fleet of 15 ships.

However, CESE noted that for shipbuilding to take off in Morocco, challenges such as the skills gap need to be addressed. In addition, CESE called for streamlining of the maritime regulations to spur collaboration between the private and public sectors.

Morocco has already designated shipbuilding zones, with a new shipyard at the Port of Casablanca. Recently, Morocco's National Ports Agency launched a two-stage competitive tender for the concession rights to run the new shipyard for a period of 30 years. Some of the private companies which have bid for the tender include the Moroccan-based infrastructure construction company Somagec.

Based on its strategic geographical location along the Mediterranean, Morocco has the potential to attract international shipbuilding firms. Further, the Port of Tangier Med has emerged as a top shipping hub in Africa and the Mediterranean region, and could bring a steady stream of repair work.

In June, Morocco’s petroleum company Petrocab placed an order for a second product tanker at the South Korean yard Dae Sun Shipbuilding. The first tanker, Challah, was successfully delivered by the same shipyard in late 2022. Notably, the assembly of the second tanker will take place in Morocco at the Casablanca Shipyard. This signaled a commitment by the government to bolster domestic shipbuilding capacity.

German Warship Shoots Down Drone in Self-Defense Off Lebanon

A German corvette off the coast of Lebanon had to shoot down a hostile drone at close range, Germany's military has confirmed. Drone attacks on maritime security forces are common in the Red Sea, but have not significantly affected Western naval vessels in the Eastern Mediterranean up to this point.

The corvette Ludwigshafen am Rhein is Germany's naval contribution to the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL, and is stationed off Lebanon to watch for arms smugglers and maritime security threats. The warship was operating near the Israeli-Lebanese boundary line when it was approached by a drone, which got "very close" to the ship before it was shot down. Some of the wreckage of the drone was recovered for examination.

So far, German officials have not released details of the type and origin of the drone, nor the method used to shoot it down.

Germany's primary role in UNIFIL is the maritime component off Lebanon, but the Bundeswehr also has about 40 soldiers on the ground with UNIFIL, and the force has been shot at several times over the past week. Tensions in Lebanon are unusually high: the Israeli military has launched a limited invasion to root out the terrorist group Hezbollah in the border region, and it has killed most of the organization's top leadership.

Vale Retrofits Giant Ore Carrier With Five Rotor Sails

Brazilian mining giant Vale International has plans to refit another of its chartered vessels with wind-assisted propulsion.

The company has reached an agreement with Japanese operator NS United Kaiun Kaisha to install rotor sails on the very large ore carrier NSU Tubarao. The companies intend to install five rotor sails manufactured by Anemoi Marine on the carrier.

Built by Japan Marine United, the 400,000 dwt Tubarao was delivered in 2020 and has been chartered by Vale primarily to transport iron ore from Brazil to Japan. The 361 meters vessel sailing under the Liberian flag will be fitted with the rotor sails in September next year.

The energy saving technology is expected to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from the ship by approximately six to 12 percent. The five rotor sails will have a height of 35 meters and a diameter of five meters.

Installation of the sails on Tubarao comes just three months after Vale fitted a capesize bulker with rotor sails manufactured by Norsepower. The 200,000 dwt Camellia Dream was retrofitted with two rotors, making her the first vessel in her size class to receive this treatment.

Vale is deploying the wind assisted propulsion on its chartered vessels as part of its sustainability agenda. The mining giant has set a target of a 15 percent reduction in scope 3 emissions by 2035, related to the value chain. Shipping emissions are part of the goal.

Owing to its commitment to adopt and leverage technologies and fleet modernization to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the company created the Ecoshipping program, a research and development initiative that is based on partnership with shipowners.

NS United operates second-generation Valemaxes with a capacity of 400,000 dwt and Guaibamaxes with a capacity of 325,000 dwt, including some of the most efficient vessels in the world.

Vale is the largest producer of iron ore, pellets and nickel, and it has side operations in manganese, ferroalloys, copper, gold, silver, and cobalt. It was the first charterer in the world to hire an ore carrier with rotor sails, as well as the first Capesize bulker with rotor sails.

“It's heartening to see industry leaders like NS United and Vale embracing innovative solutions to meet maritime’s environmental challenges. This latest project once again underscores the importance of collaboration in driving maritime decarbonization,” said Kim Diederichsen, Anemoi Marine CEO.

UK Pursues Clean Shipping with EU Through Green Corridors

Cargo operations at the Port of Tyne, the top beneficiary of the green corridor funding round (Port of Tyne file image)

The United Kingdom is living up to its promise to establish green shipping corridors to decarbonize the maritime sector. In December last year, the country made a pledge in the Clydebank Declaration at COP26 to establish six green shipping corridors by the middle of this decade through a coalition of like-minded countries.

The UK government has now embarked on the implementation of the pledge with the unveiling of green shipping corridors for zero emission vessels, with the first routes between the UK and Europe.

The Port of Tyne is among the first beneficiaries of the $11.7 million UK International Green Corridor Fund, and the grant program will help decarbonize the route connecting Tyne with the Port of Ijmuiden in the Netherlands. Also benefiting is the Port of Holyhead, which will create a green shipping corridor with the Port of Dublin.

Funds will also be directed towards the development of green shipping routes from the UK to Norway and Demark, with the ports that will lead the initiative expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

The UK government says that the funding will support the development of port infrastructure for electrification and the refueling of state-of-the-art clean-powered vessels. The critical green infrastructure will decarbonize the Tyne-Ijmuiden route, saving up to 850,000 tons of CO2 annually.?

Tyne is one of the UK’s major deep-sea ports and is an economic driver in the northeast of the country. Government data shows that last year, the port contributed over $934 million in gross value added, up by four percent year-on-year. Apart from general cargo and roll-on/roll-off (Ro/Ro), the port facilitates ferry service to Ijmuiden and has been recording a steady growth in cruise ships, with the number doubling to 61 last year from 32 in 2022.

The Holyhead-Dublin trade route, which secured $187,000 in grant funding, is the busiest Ro/Ro route between the UK and Ireland. About two million people travel the route annually, with over 6,000 sailings accounting for more than 74 percent of all ferry passenger movements between the two countries. The corridor is led by ferry operators Irish Ferries and Stena Line.

The ports of Dublin and Holyhead also serve as key economic gateways, handling a significant volume of trade, with Dublin Port handling 83 percent of RoRo freight and 72 percent of ferry volumes into Ireland. The study aims to advance the decarbonization of the critical trade artery.

“Shipping is a big contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, so these new green corridors could be a real game changer for industry. This is exactly the direction we need to be going in to achieve our mission of becoming a clean energy superpower,” said Mike Kane, UK Maritime Minister. He added the new corridors could turbocharge the use of sustainable fuels, secure green jobs of the future and advance environmentally friendly travel to major European capitals.

Apart from green shipping corridors, the UK government is also making available up to $10.4 million for funding about 30 projects involved in accelerating plans to develop smart technologies such as autonomous systems, AI, robotics and sensors. The technologies will help position the UK as a world leader in maritime decarbonization and will support economic growth and coastal communities by delivering local jobs and boosting local businesses.?

This latest round of funding comes from the $268.4 million UK SHORE program, which is focused on decarbonizing the country’s maritime sector through tech innovation.

Shipping and the Energy Transition

The key role of shipping in transporting the critical minerals needed for the clean energy transition has largely been ignored. Will there be enough ships?

Bulker — File image courtesy Harren & Partner / CC BY SA 4.0

(Article originally published in July/Aug 2024 edition.)

Although the extreme demands of energy transition activists are receiving pushback from the public, the pressure for change remains. International forecasters point to the recent rapid growth of renewable energy as confirming that the transition is not merely underway but growing rapidly. However, that conclusion is being challenged.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has declared that “We stand at a moment of truth.” That truth, in his estimation, is that “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet.” He went on to warn, “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell, and the truth is we have control of the wheel.”

Ditching hydrocarbons sooner rather than later is imperative and embracing renewable energy is mandatory, according to Guterres.

The Guterres message was followed by the International Energy Agency predicting that the world is on course for an oil consumption peak by 2030. It forecasts an eight million barrel-a-day oil supply glut by 2035. Such a glut, the IEA says, will destroy the economics of oil production and devastate not just the balance sheets of oil and gas companies but also the economies of OPEC countries.

The IEA says purveyors of hydrocarbons must shift their capital spending away from hydrocarbons and into renewable energies.

The IEA’s conclusion is, however, challenged by the latest data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, which shows hydrocarbon consumption growing faster than renewable energy despite the latter’s privileged status and billions in government support.

Government subsidies boost weak renewable energy project financial returns compared to hydrocarbon investments. They’re often the only way renewable projects secure financing, given their capital-intensive nature. An emerging problem for governments struggling under growing national debt loads is that renewable energy subsidies are overwhelming their budgets.

Changed Economic Climate

Subsidies are increasing to offset renewables’ poor returns due to a changed economic climate.

These projects benefited from nearly two decades of ideal conditions for capital-intensive investments. Inflation was low, and supply chain issues were non-existent. The era’s low interest rates enabled developers to flourish by utilizing high debt-to-equity financing structures to elevate the normal low returns of these projects. High interest rates are forcing the abandonment of high-cost renewable energy projects.

The changed economic environment sees hydrocarbon prices rising as people demand the societal benefits these fuels provide. International oil companies are earning record profits from their traditional hydrocarbon businesses. After seeing the public clamor for more hydrocarbon energy, they’re shifting their investment focus away from renewables. Similarly, developing countries are doubling down on hydrocarbon power to provide jobs and cheap energy for their economies.

China is an example of the conflict between clean and dirty energy investments. China has the world’s largest renewable energy generating capacity – four times that of the U.S. Its renewable spending in 2023 was double what the E.U. and U.S. spent. At the same time, China built more coal-fired power plants than the rest of the world combined. Neither trend is expected to change in the foreseeable future.

What is energy’s long-term future? The transition to clean energy is underway. Its pace is uncertain, but a road map exists. Accelerating the transition will force significant personal, business and government adjustments. However, renewable energy’s intermittence, dramatically lower financial returns, need for backup utility systems and the requirement for new supply chains will make the transition expensive.

Building a New Supply Chain

A blind spot in the energy transition narrative is renewable energy’s new supply chain. It will take time to build, and the cost will be significant. The challenges will impact the pace of building the supply chain, affecting the amount of critical minerals available for clean energy technologies.

In 2022, the IEA released a study on the role of critical minerals (copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths) in energy transitions. The IEA has two models to predict the energy market and resulting emissions. While the models are for 2050, they also produce interim results. This groundbreaking study focused on what is required of energy and mineral markets to reach the IEA emissions targets in 2040.

The two models are STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario) and SDS (Sustainable Development Scenario). STEPS means the world and energy markets evolve based on current policies. The SDS model assumes governments will institute policies to meet the emission targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The IEA study focused on clean energy technologies: solar, wind, other low-carbon power generation, electric vehicles and battery storage, electricity networks, and hydrogen fuel. STEPS found that critical mineral demand increased fourfold over 2020-2040. The increase becomes sixfold in SDS. EVs and battery storage needs will drive mineral growth.

Both STEPS and SDS confirm that demand for critical minerals will soar. However, we haven’t seen any study outlining how that demand will be met. Not only are we unsure where the supplies will come from, but we do not know the volumes needing to be moved from mine to refinery and eventually to final consumers. How long with it take to build this supply chain? We know that the maritime industry will be key in delivering those critical mineral supplies.

Maritime’s Role

For the last few decades, the maritime industry has focused on growing the container vessel fleet as global trade patterns shifted in response to producing goods in low-cost labor countries. This resulted in finished products needing to be shipped to developed countries.

Many countries with low labor costs also have low energy costs, generating rapid economic growth, especially in Asia. From 2011 to 2024, the number of container ships in the global fleet increased by 25 percent as carrying capacity grew by nearly 80 percent. Bigger ships dominated the growth.

Critical minerals are found in many countries in the Southern Hemisphere. South America has many ore suppliers, followed by African and Asian countries. Developed countries have enacted laws and mandates, along with providing subsidies, to accelerate the energy transition. To avoid exploitation, some critical-mineral-producing countries have instituted policies directing their industries to move up the value creation curve by refining the ores or starting manufacturing businesses to create intermediate or final clean energy products.

Mineral ores are transported to market by dry bulk carriers. As the energy transition has accelerated, the volume of minerals transported has grown, necessitating more bulk carriers. From 2011 to 2024, the bulk carrier fleet increased by 65 percent with a 13 percent expansion in the past three years. Since 2020, an additional 1,600 dry bulk carriers joined the fleet.

With the IEA forecasting four- to six-fold increases in the volume of critical minerals by 2040, will we need 4-6 times the number of bulk carriers to move them? If so, we would require 2,300-3,500 new ships to enter the fleet annually until 2040. That ignores any fleet losses from accidents and retirements.

In recent years, shipbuilders added 400-500 new bulk carriers a year. Could they construct 6-8 times the number of bulk carriers delivered annually? If they were the only ships built, maybe it’s possible.

Additionally, ships are built from steel. More ships mean more iron ore must be transported from mines, adding to bulk carrier demand. Offsetting fleet growth could be reduced coal shipments.

The number of new bulk carriers depends on the distances they travel. Issues such as low water in the Panama Canal due to drought and avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal because of Houthi attacks will impact distances traveled. The speed of bulk carriers could also affect the number of new vessels needed. The time spent in ports loading and unloading ships will play a role. Larger ships take longer to load and unload.

The need for such a rapid fleet expansion is occurring along with the IMO’s efforts to decarbonize shipping. Abandoning hydrocarbon fuels means finding new energy sources for vessels. Experimenting with multiple clean energy technologies has shown none to be as cheap or convenient as bunker fuel. Solving that problem will take time.

The uncertainty over future vessel power has shipowners hesitant to expand fleets rapidly. A wrong engine choice could shorten the economic life of a vessel with disastrous financial fallout. Therefore, the powering solution will add to vessel operating costs and boost the cost of transportation.

Will There Be Enough Ships?

According to the U.N. Trade and Development database, 93 percent of new ships are built in China, South Korea and Japan. While shipbuilders in China continue to increase their capacity, is it feasible to expect them to expand fast enough to deliver the number of new ships required for the energy transition?

Shipping industry challenges have been ignored in the transition debate. They must be addressed for it to advance.

Top image courtesy Harren & Partner / CC BY SA 4.0

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Brazil Moves Ahead With Privatized Container Terminal at Port of Santos

Brazil is moving ahead with the long-delayed development of a new container terminal at the Port of Santos. Early this week, the Ministry of Ports and Airports (MPor) directed the state-owned logistics company Infra SA to draw up a concession model for the STS10 terminal. The Brazilian government has been trying to implement the project since 2019, during the administration of Jair Bolsonaro. With a growing container business at the Port of Santos, the new terminal would add much-needed capacity.

However, after the current government of President Lula da Silva took office in 2023, it scrapped any plans to privatize the administrator of the Port of Santos. The new directive by MPor now wants this earlier model revised, with the government readying for its auction in 2025.

“In the model recommended by MPor, in alignment with the presidential chief of staff’s office, there will be four berths in the terminal. The original project provided for three berths. This will increase the container capacity at the country’s largest port, Santos, by 50 percent,” said MPor.

Currently, the Port of Santos handles 6 million TEU per year, and this will increase to 9 million with the new terminal. There is also a proposal for the construction of a new passenger terminal in the 601,000 square meters of space allocated to STS10.

However, the development of STS10 has not been without controversy. Part of the area where the STS10 terminal will be located, in the Saboo region, is occupied by a multipurpose terminal operated by Ecoporto. The concession contract expires by the end of the year, and if the contract is renewed, some shipping companies argue that the space designated for container operations will shrink.

The STS10 auction signals a change in the Brazilian government's stance on port privatization. Last month, CMA CGM bought a 48 percent stake in Santos Brasil, a leading terminal operator in Brazil. It controls Port of Santos’ largest container terminal, Tecon Santos.

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