Hurricane Oscar makes landfall in Cuba amid huge power outage
Rigoberto DIAZ
Sun, October 20, 2024
Drivers wait to fill up their cars in Havana during the nationwide blackout (ADALBERTO ROQUE) (ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP/AFP)
Hurricane Oscar made landfall on Sunday evening in Cuba, where residents were preparing for more chaos and misery as the country grapples with a nearly nationwide power outage that is in its third day.
The arrival of Oscar, after the Friday collapse of Cuba's largest power plant crippled the whole national grid, piles pressure on a country already battling sky-high inflation and shortages of food, medicine, fuel and water.
Cuba's government said power would be reinstated for the majority of the country by Monday evening.
The Category 1 storm made landfall in eastern Cuba at 5:50 pm local time (2150 GMT) on Sunday, the US National Hurricane Center said.
Oscar was packing maximum sustained winds nearing 80 miles (130 kilometers) per hour, the NHC said, and the storm was moving westward at seven miles per hour.
President Miguel Diaz-Canel said Saturday that authorities in the east of the island were "working hard to protect the people and economic resources, given the imminent arrival of Hurricane Oscar."
Energy and Mining Minister Vicente de la O Levy told reporters Sunday that electricity would be restored for most Cubans by Monday night, adding that "the last customer may receive service by Tuesday."
The power grid failed in a chain reaction Friday due to the unexpected shutdown of the biggest of the island's eight decrepit coal-fired power plants, according to the head of electricity supply at the energy ministry, Lazaro Guerra.
National electric utility UNE said it had managed to generate a minimal amount of electricity to get power plants restarted on Friday night, but by Saturday morning it was experiencing what official news outlet Cubadebate called "a new, total disconnection of the electrical grid."
Most neighborhoods in Havana remain dark, except for hotels and hospitals with emergency generators and the very few private homes with backup systems.
"God knows when the power will come back on," said Rafael Carrillo, a 41-year-old mechanic, who had to walk almost five kilometers due to the lack of public transportation amid the blackout.
The blackout followed weeks of power outages, lasting up to 20 hours a day in some provinces.
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero on Thursday declared an "energy emergency," suspending non-essential public services in order to prioritize electricity supply to homes.
- Leaving Cuba -
President Diaz-Canel blamed the situation on Cuba's difficulties in acquiring fuel for its power plants, which he attributed to the tightening, during Donald Trump's presidency, of a six-decade-long US trade embargo.
Cuba is in the throes of its worst economic crisis since the collapse of key ally the Soviet Union in the early 1990s -- marked by soaring inflation and shortages of basic goods.
With no relief in sight, many Cubans have emigrated.
More than 700,000 entered the United States between January 2022 and August 2024, according to US officials.
While the authorities chiefly blame the US embargo, the island is also feeling the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic battering its critical tourism sector, and of economic mismanagement.
To bolster its grid, Cuba has leased seven floating power plants from Turkish companies and also added many small diesel-powered generators.
In July 2021, blackouts sparked an unprecedented outpouring of public anger.
Thousands of Cubans took to the streets shouting, "We are hungry" and "Freedom!" in a rare challenge to the government.
One person was killed and dozens were injured in the protests. According to the Mexico-based human rights organization Justicia 11J, 600 people detained during the unrest remain in prison.
In 2022, the island also suffered months of daily, hours-long power outages, capped by a nationwide blackout caused by Hurricane Ian.
bur/dw/bjt/aha
What happens when a country goes too long without electricity? Death and devastation follow
Syra Ortiz Blanes
Sun, October 20, 2024
Cuban technicians working to restore the electrical grid after it collapsed Friday.
As the collapse of Cuba’s electrical system entered its third day Sunday, the devastating and deadly consequences of prolonged power outages are coming into view.
Some hospitals are getting power. But the rest are running on generators, and available fuel is limited, raising questions about what will happen if patients are left, quite literally, in the dark. The country’s prime minister, Manuel Marrero, ordered all non-essential commercial activity to shut down, which means that Cubans cannot earn their keep. Schools and universities are shuttered until further notice.
READ MORE: Cuba struggles to restore grid, enters third day without electricity as hurricane nears
Jorge Piñón, a senior research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute and an expert on the island’s electrical grid, told the Miami Herald that Cuba’s thermoelectric plants have been running for far too long without any maintenance or investments.
“We never believed it would become what it is today. It is a total collapse,” said Piñón, who noted how unprecedented and extreme Cuba’s situation was. “In South America there are countries that have problems with energy generation. But not to the level or depth that Cuba does.”
Experts say that the consequences of prolonged power outages go beyond living in uncomfortable heat and without modern amenities. People get sick and die because they cannot get necessary medical services or treatments. And being kept from work means that many people do not make enough money to afford food and other basic needs.
The population “cannot survive without power,” said Piñón.
No healthcare without power
Cuba’s neighbor, the American territory of Puerto Rico, is intimately familiar with what living in drawn-out darkness is like. The island is the site of the longest blackout in U.S. history, after Hurricane Maria devastated its infrastructure in 2017. In some places it took a year for the power to return.
Right after the storm, Puerto Rican authorities reported a handful of deaths from flying debris, floods, houses collapsing and mudslides. But researchers found in later investigations that thousands of people died from indirect causes.
A George Washington University Study in collaboration with the University of Puerto Rico and George Washington found there had been almost 3,000 excess deaths in the six months after Maria. Being elderly or living in a poor municipality were risk factors.
“A lot of that was due to the lack of power. People were not able to deal with their medical situations,” said Cathy Kunkel, an energy consultant with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis who specializes in Puerto Rico’s power grid.
Puerto Ricans were not able to switch on their oxygen machines at home; keep temperature-sensitive, life-saving medications such as insulin cold; shift themselves in adjustable beds or power their electrical wheelchairs, or attend kidney dialysis and chemotherapy sessions. Living without power can put people, especially the elderly and children, at risk of heat stroke and other related illnesses.
Because there was no electricity to power water pumps, many Puerto Ricans turned to whatever water was available for daily needs. That included rivers, creeks, and contaminated sources of water. The Puerto Rican Center for Investigative Journalism found there were 26 deaths from leptospirosis, a water-borne bacterial illness, in the six months after the storm. That’s more than twice the deaths from the previous year.
For hospitals and medical centers that had to do time-sensitive procedures or maintain medications and vaccines in certain temperatures — or simply need power to examine patients or perform procedures — outages also posed logistical challenges.
Frente Ciudadano por la Auditoria de la Deuda, an advocacy group in Puerto Rico, commemorated Puerto Ricans who died after Hurricane Maria because of a lack of power on the sixth anniversary of the storm with an exhibition. People wrote letters about how loved ones and neighbors died without their oxygen tanks, ventilators and medical equipment. Several people on the island, many of them elderly, have also died in recent years because the generators or candles they used to keep them from being in the dark caused fires in their homes.
The lack of power can also cause or exacerbate psychological issues. University of Puerto Rico psychologist Eduardo Lugo recently reported that the Puerto Rican government’s mental health helpline had received 7,300 calls in three weeks from people affected by issues with the power grid.
“It just complicates things on a daily basis,” said Kunkel. “After Hurricane Maria, especially in rural areas, people were asking, ‘Is the power ever going to come back? Is this ever going to be resolved?”
Economy in the dark
Outages also affect the economy and businesses that drive it. Marrero Cruz, the Cuban prime minister, said the island’s economy was currently paralyzed.
In Puerto Rico, it’s not uncommon for businesses to close because they have no power for the day. Some restaurants with gas stoves work through power outages, but both staff and patrons have to face intolerable heat.
“If you are a small business owner and you have to close your business regularly because you don’t have power or have to invest in a generator to keep operating, those can be major economic costs,” said Kunkel.
Piñón, the Cuba power expert, said that outages would have an impact on not only domestic business but also international travelers visiting the island who spend money on the local economy.
“With this situation and the headlines across the globe, Cuba can expect even less tourism,” Piñón said.
Cuban children and college students could also face delays or gaps in their schooling amid the power outages. After Hurricane Maria, it took a month for kids to go back to public schools, though most classrooms had no power. The outages also raise questions whether they could be a trigger a wave of migration, which has already been at historic levels out of Cuba.
Cuba’s system went out of commission on Friday after a failure at a power station in the western province of Matanzas caused the entire grid to collapse. Since then, the country’s government has been under a state of emergency as workers try to turn the lights back on. On Sunday, the island’s energy agency said that generation capacity would continue increasing throughout the day. But large swaths of the country are in the dark.
Piñón said that even if the energy system is restored, there is no short-term solution.
“We’re going to see some small fixes here and there over the next few weeks. But we’ll be back to this situation again soon.”
Hurricane Oscar makes landfall in Cuba, could lead to 'humanitarian crisis': Updates
Julia Gomez and Minnah Arshad, USA TODAYUpdated Sun, October 20, 2024 Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba Sunday evening amid a power blackout, adding to fears that the storm may prove to be especially dangerous.The Category 1 storm made landfall near the city of Baracoa shortly before 6 p.m. ET just hours after landfalling in the Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center. By 8 p.m., Oscar's maximum sustained winds decreased from 80 mph to 75 mph.Oscar made landfall in Cuba as millions across the island were in the dark. The country's electrical grid collapsed on Sunday for the fourth time in 48 hours, marking a major setback in the government's efforts to quickly restore power to exhausted residents already suffering from severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel.The government canceled school through Wednesday — a rare move in Cuba — citing the hurricane and ongoing energy crisis. Officials said only essential workers should report to work Monday.Hurricane center forecasters expect the storm to weaken after landfall as it moves over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm into the week as it moves north of Cuba late Monday and across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.Eastern Cuba is forecast to receive 6 to 12 inches of rain through Wednesday morning, according to the hurricane center, with isolated amounts up to 18 inches. The center also warned that water could reach one to three feet above normal tide levels along the north shore of Cuba, accompanied by "large and destructive waves."
Sunday forecast track for Hurricane Oscar from the National Hurricane Center.Fears of 'humanitarian crisis'A dangerous storm surge is expected in the southeastern part of the Bahamas on Sunday, mainly around Great Inagua Island and later on the north shore of Cuba, the hurricane center forecasted.AccuWeather forecasters fear Oscar could strengthen into a Category 2 storm.“Heavy rain falling in the steep terrain of southeastern Cuba raises serious concerns about major flash flooding, as well as mudslides and rockslides," said Jon Porter, a chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, in a statement. "Unfortunately, the combination of these factors may result in a humanitarian crisis in some parts of southeast Cuba should a more intense Oscar make a close pass or even make landfall in Cuba."An existing power crisis in Cuba has increased worries about Oscar's impacts.On Saturday, the Cuban government restored power to a fifth of the country's 10 million people after its national grid collapsed twice in 24 hours.“Hurricane impacts to Cuba are extremely concerning because of the ongoing power grid crisis in Cuba," said Porter. "Adding a hurricane hit on top of the existing power failure can make the hurricane impact far worse, further risking lives and resulting in challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the hurricane’s impacts."The island first lost power after its electrical grid crashed on Friday afternoon when its largest power plant shut down, according to Reuters. Then the grid collapsed again Saturday morning.Authorities reported the government made progress on restoring power before it announced the grid collapsed again Saturday evening.Hurricane Oscar path Hurricane Oscar spaghetti modelsIllustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.(This story was updated to add new information.)Contributing: John Gallas, Diane Pantaleo; USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida; ReutersJulia is a trending reporter for USA TODAY. You can connect with her on LinkedIn, follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok: @juliamariegz, or email her at jgomez@gannett.comThis article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Oscar tracker: Storm could lead to 'humanitarian crisis'
Hurricane Oscar makes landfall in eastern Cuba after striking the Bahamas
Associated Press
Updated Sun, October 20, 2024
This satellite image provided by NOAA on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024 shows Hurricane Oscar. (NOAA via AP)
MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Oscar has made landfall in eastern Cuba, an island beleaguered by a massive power outage, after striking the southeastern Bahamas earlier in the day Sunday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
The hurricane center in Miami said the storm’s center arrived in the Cuban province of Guantanamo, near the city of Baracoa, on Sunday evening. Its maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph (130 kph).
The system is expected to move across eastern Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Forecasters said 6 to 12 inches (15.2 to 30.5 centimeters) of rain are expected across eastern Cuba through early Wednesday, with some isolated locations getting up to 18 inches (45.72 centimeters). A storm surge of up to 3 feet (0.91 meters) in some areas of Cuba's north shore in the area was possible, the center said.
Oscar was expected to weaken over eastern Cuba before making a turn to the northeast and approaching the central Bahamas on Tuesday, the center said.
The storm’s center was located about 5 miles (10 kilometers) east-southeast of Baracoa, or about 50 miles (80 kilometers) east-northeast of Guantanamo. It was heading west-southwest at 7 mph (11 kph).
Oscar made landfall on Great Inagua island in the Bahamas earlier Sunday. It was expected to produce a dangerous storm surge that could translate into significant coastal flooding there and in other areas of the southeastern Bahamas. Two to four inches (5.1 to 10.2 centimeters) of rainfall were expected, with isolated areas seeing up to 6 inches (15.2 centimeters).
The hurricane's arrival comes as Cuba tries to recover from its worst blackout in at least two years, which left millions without power for two days last week. Some electrical service was restored Saturday.
Philippe Papin of the National Hurricane Center said it was somewhat unexpected that Oscar became a hurricane Saturday.
“Unfortunately the system kind of snuck up a little bit on us,” Papin said.
Hours earlier Tropical Storm Nadine formed off Mexico’s southern Caribbean coast. It degenerated into a tropical depression as it moved over land.
Hurricane Oscar heads for Cuba after making landfall in Bahamas
Reuters
Updated Sun, October 20, 2024
Cuba working to reestablish electrical service after second grid collapse
(Reuters) -Hurricane Oscar is expected to reach Guantanamo or Holguin in Cuba later on Sunday as the island country struggles to restore power after its worst blackout in years, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Oscar is currently located about 115 miles (185.07 km) east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h), the Miami-based forecaster said.
Cuba's government on Saturday restored power to nearly one-fifth of the island's 10 million people after the national grid collapsed twice in 24 hours.
Hurricane Oscar made landfall on Great Inagua island in the Bahamas earlier in the day.
NHC expects Oscar to weaken after making landfall on the northeastern coast of Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
According to the NHC, rainfall amounts of 5 inches to 10 inches (13-25 cm) with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba through Tuesday.
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued its tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, NHC said.
Hurricane warnings for the Southeastern Bahamas, the north coast of the Cuban provinces of Holguin, Guantanamo and Las Tunas are still in place, it added.
(Reporting by Shivani Tanna in Bengaluru; Editing by Christina Fincher and Chizu Nomiyama)
“Tiny” Hurricane Oscar heads toward Cuba
WGN-TV Tom Skilling Weather Center
Sat, October 19, 2024
The National Hurricane Center describes Oscar as a “tiny” hurricane with a compact inner core; Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Oscar on Sunday.
From the National Weather Center
Hurricane Oscar formed Saturday off the coast of The Bahamas . . . Forecast models indicating Oscar could make landfall and move inland over eastern Cuba . . . thereafter, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, as the extent and duration of land interaction will dictate the depth of the vortex and how it is steered. For now, the longer-range forecast shows Oscar turning northward and accelerating northeastward through midweek ahead of an amplifying upper trough.
Intensity forecast for Oscar remains challenging as its compact size makes it susceptible to more rapid intensity fluctuations
While some near-term intensification cannot be ruled out, satellite trends indicate the hurricane could be starting to feel the effects of northwesterly shear, which the global models insist will increase through Sunday. The NHC forecast still shows Oscar reaching the coast of Cuba as a hurricane on Sunday night.
Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northern coast
Afterwards, land interaction and stronger shear should induce weakening, which could occur even faster than forecast if the center of the small cyclone remains inland as long as some of the guidance suggests.
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Hurricane Oscar forms off the Bahamas
The Associated Press
Sat, October 19, 2024
MIAMI (AP) — The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Hurricane Oscar has formed off the coast of the Bahamas.
Oscar, which the hurricane center characterized as “tiny,” formed Saturday.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a hurricane warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.
The storm’s maximum sustained winds were clocked at 80 mph (130 kph) with higher gusts. Its center was located about 165 miles (260 kilometers) east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and about 470 miles (755 kilometers) east of Camaguey, Cuba.
Hours earlier, Tropical Storm Nadine formed off Mexico’s southern Caribbean coast and was moving inland across Belize. Heavy rain and tropical storm conditions were occurring over parts of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Belize City and from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel.
National Hurricane Center tracks Hurricane Oscar's path; keeps eye on weakening Nadine
John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
Updated Sun, October 20, 2024 at 3:27 PM MDT·9 min read
Hurricane Oscar made landfall overnight on Great Inagua Island as a very small Category 1 storm, forecasters said, and was expected to reach Cuba later Sunday.
Oscar is close to landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba, where conditions will soon deteriorate, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. update.
A northeasterly turn is expected from Oscar's path as the government of the Bahamas discontinued its Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Hurricane-force winds of about 80 mph extend about 10 miles from the center of Hurricane Oscar.
Tropical Depression Nadine dissipated over southern Mexico, the National Hurricane Center reported as of 10 a.m. advisory. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are still expected over parts of Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico.
Nadine dumped enough rain for flash flood possibilities across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize early Sunday, forecasters said in their discussion.
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There were no other tropical cyclones expected to form in the next seven days, according to the NHC's 8 a.m. Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook.
The next named storms would be Patty and Rafael.
What is Hurricane Oscar's path and where is it going?
Location: 20 miles north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba, 60 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Present movement: West-southwest at 6 mph
Minimum central pressure: 986 MB
As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory: The center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph. A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph from a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. A weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb.
Watches and warnings:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, the south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo, and the north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey and central Bahamas
What hurricane warnings and watches mean: A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
What tropical storm warnings and watches mean: A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
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Hurricane Oscar spaghetti models
What is Tropical Depression Nadine's path and where is it going?
As of the 11 a.m. EDT advisory: The remnants of Nadine were located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
For additional information on the remnants of Nadine please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php, and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Watches and warnings: None are in effect for Tropical Depression Nadine.
Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models
'Hints' are there for tropical development in western Caribbean later this month
In its two-week forecast, Colorado State University meteorologists said there is a 50% chance for tropical development through Oct. 28.
There's nothing out there now and even with Tropical Storm Nadine forming, chances for development of Invest 94L is fairly low.
However, "There are hints of potential additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are fairly weak," CSU forecasters said.
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"Wind shear anomalies are forecast to be somewhat below normal during the two-week period in the Caribbean, so we believe that there is additional potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean."
A similar forecast was issued by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.
"I am confident that the next week and a half will be free of the conepanics associated with tropical threats to the continental United States," Truchelut said. "However, at longer range, hurricane season is not over." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"There are solid indications that of a couple of weeks of unusually favorable upper-level winds are coming to the Caribbean starting at the very end of October and extending through mid-November.
"With the Caribbean Sea still blazing hot, it’s possible that one or two more named storms could be squeezed out of this set-up. That’s not to say that these would be U.S. landfall threats — history suggests they wouldn’t be — but it’s worth keeping an eye on the Oct. 30 through Nov. 10 window, just in case."
Late-season hits from major hurricanes unusual for Florida
The latest Florida Category 3+ landfall, the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane, occurred on Oct. 25, and a major hurricane has never struck anywhere in the U.S. after Oct. 28, Truchelut said.
"Only about 2% of annual U.S. landfall activity occurs beyond that date: about 20 storms in around 170 years, seven of which were hurricanes. Most late season landfalls are focused on South Florida, with Category 2 Hurricane Kate in the Panhandle a notable exception."
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What else is the National Hurricane Center tracking?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin, which includes the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hurricane Oscar's path moves toward Cuba; here's the outloo
