Sunday, October 27, 2024

Harris maintains double-digit lead over Trump with youth voters in Harvard survey

Yash Roy
Fri, October 25, 2024

Vice President Harris has a 2-to-1 advantage among voters aged 18 to 29 over former President Trump, but that advantage shrinks to only a 9-point lead in battleground states, according to the last Harvard Institute of Politics survey before Election Day.

Harris’s 28-point lead over Trump is 3 points lower than in the September poll, but support for Harris is still almost double that of President Biden, according to Harvard’s polling from earlier in the year.

“Young Americans’ attitudes, concerns, and candidate preferences come through loud and clear in our latest Harvard Youth Poll,” said Setti Warren, the institute’s director. “As we approach the final sprint to Election Day, we see that young people across the country are continuing to pay attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard.”

The new poll also found a growing enthusiasm gap among young Harris and Trump voters: 71 percent of Harris voters said they plan to vote compared to only 59 percent of Trump voters.

In swing states, 1 in 2 voters said they plan on voting for Harris, while Trump registered 41 percent in support. Additionally, 4 percent said they’d vote for a third party, and 6 percent were undecided.


Close to 3 in 5 young voters said they planned to vote or have already cast their ballot, which is consistent with previous polling showing a marked increase in youth participation in elections since 2018.

The gender gap between Harris and Trump has also continued to widen, with the vice president holding a 10-point lead among young male voters and a 30-point lead among women. In the spring, that gap was only 8 points.

“The political gap between young men and young women has emerged as a key feature of this election. The Harris and Trump campaigns have deployed extensive resources to reach both groups. Overall, young voters break strongly for Harris in this poll,” said Anil Cacodcar, chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project.

Harris has dedicated considerable campaign resources to reaching younger voters, including a commitment to visit 150 college campuses. Her staff has also created numerous memes and video edits on social platform X, Instagram and TikTok to boost youth engagement.

Much of her messaging has focused on reproductive access, and of those polled by Harvard, Harris holds a 46-point advantage in trust about reproductive rights.

Trump has focused on reaching out to younger male voters, especially white men, visiting SEC football games and participating in events with the NELK Boys and podcaster Joe Rogan.



Young white men are also the only group that believes Trump is a stronger, more patriotic and funnier candidate compared to all other young voters.

Young voters believe Harris is more competent, honest and reliable, among the most important traits for those polled when deciding whom to vote for.

Only 1 in 5 Americans polled expressed confidence in a peaceful transition of power after the election.


Gender gap among young voters doubles since spring

Juliann Ventura
Fri, October 25, 2024

The gender gap among youth supporters of Vice President Harris and former President Trump more than doubled since the spring, a Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll found.

The survey found that the gender gap grew from 8 percentage points in the spring, when President Biden was the Democratic nominee, to 20 points now, with Harris as the party’s candidate.

Harris leads by 10 percentage points among men and 30 percentage points among women, the poll revealed.

Among white women, Democrats saw a 9-point gain, with Harris now at 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 37 percent, the survey found. In the spring, Trump sat at 27 percent compared to Biden’s 31 percent.

Among nonwhite women, Harris sits at 70 percent support, while Trump sits at 15 percent, the poll showed. In the spring, Trump had 15 percent support, while Biden had 36 percent support.

The poll noted Trump leads among young male voters who are less certain about voting, 37 percent to Harris’s 26 percent.

For likely voters of this demographic, Harris leads Trump, 55 percent to 38 percent.

The poll also found that among registered voters nationwide, Harris leads Trump by 20 points nationwide, 53 percent to 33 percent. Among likely voters, the divide widens with Harris outpacing Trump, 60 percent to 32 percent.

In key battleground states Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, Harris leads among registered voters, 50 percent to 41 percent, the survey revealed. Four percent supported third-party candidates, and 6 percent were undecided.

In the states that Biden won in 2020, the survey found Harris leads by 34 percentage points, but in the states that Trump won, her lead shrinks to 10 percentage points.

The poll surveyed 2,001 adults under 30 from Oct. 3-14. The margin of error for the total sample was 2.64 percentage points. For registered voters, the margin of error was 3.05 points, and it was 3.61 points for likely voters.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved.


New poll finds the key to mobilizing young voters could be peer pressure

Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY
Updated Fri, October 25, 2024 at 7:24 AM MDT

From podcast appearances to celebrity endorsements, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been pulling out all the stops in the final days of the 2024 presidential campaign to woo young voters to the polls.

For Harris, those efforts appear to be working.

The Harvard Youth Poll, published Friday, showed Harris leading Trump nationally by 20 points among registered voters under age 30. Across the seven major swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin – where the race is more competitive, Harris’ lead dropped to 9 points.


Young women react to meeting Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Kamala Harris at a meet and greet for women voters in Birmingham, Alabama on June 7, 2019.

The secret to getting young people to vote? Potentially, peer pressure. Those between the ages of 18-29 who believed that their friends planned to vote were more than twice as likely to say they planned to vote themselves, according to the survey.



John Della Volpe, polling director at the Institue of Politics, said in a statement that peer influence, not just the politics of the two candidates, “could determine youth turnout” this election “and ultimately who becomes the next president.”

Young people are expected to play a major role in the outcome of the tightening race for the White House. The election could be decided on razor-thin margins in a handful of states, and turnout among critical demographic groups could make up the difference.

Both Harris and Trump have sought to court young millennial and Gen Z voters in the closing days of the campaign. With appearances at popular fighting matches and on podcasts hosted by the likes of YouTuber Logan Paul, Trump has targeted undecided young men. Harris, meanwhile, has leaned into social media campaigns and endorsements from high-profile celebrities including Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish to increase support among young women.

Those strategies are evident in the stark – and growing – gender gap.

When President Joe Biden was in the 2024 presidential race earlier this year, his lead among young women was nine points higher than among young men. With Harris as the Democratic nominee, the gender gap has increased to 20% points. Harris now leads by 10% points among young men and by a whopping 30% points among young women.

And the gender gap isn’t just in youth. In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, 53% of women said they backed Harris, while 53% of men said they supported Trump.

According to the Harvard Youth poll, some of the young men who support Trump may be less likely to vote. The survey found that Trump held an 11-point advantage among young men who were less likely to vote, where Harris lead among likely male voters.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 3 and 14 and surveyed 2,001 Americans from ages 18 to 29. The margin of error among the total sample was +/- 2.64%. It rose to +/- 3.05% when looking specifically at registered voters, and +/- 3.61% on questions examining likely voters.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Peer pressure could drive youth turnout in 2024, new poll finds


Walz, AOC to play Madden on Twitch in an appeal to young men


Juliann Ventura
Sat, October 26, 2024 


Vice President Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.), and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y) are set to play Madden NFL together on the live-streaming platform Twitch on Sunday.

The announcement comes as the Harris campaign seeks to court young male voters, a voting bloc that former President Trump seems to be leading with in the polls.

The Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll found that the gender gap among youth supporters of Harris and Trump more than doubled since the spring, growing from 8 percentage points in the spring, when President Biden was the Democratic nominee, to 20 points now, with Harris as the party’s candidate.


Polling has also shown the Democratic nominee trailing behind Trump among male voters in key swing states.

A CNN/SSRS poll from September showed Trump leading Harris among likely male voters in Pennsylvania by 15 points — 55 percent to 40 percent — and Harris leading Trump among female voters in the state by 11 points — 53 percent to 42 percent.

The survey of likely voters in Nevada showed Trump with an 18-point lead among male voters, 57 percent to 39 percent, while Harris had a 16-point lead among female voters, 55 percent to 39 percent.

The campaign has used Twitch to attract younger voters in the past, even using the platform, along with TikTok, YouTube and more than a dozen digital services, to stream the Democratic National Convention in August.

This announcement also comes amid a series of ads on Yahoo Sports and DraftKings — platforms with predominantly male audiences — launched by the Harris campaign last week specifically aimed at winning over young male voters.

Earlier this month, some Democrats expressed worry that Harris is struggling to engage men in the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

“She has a problem with men for the same reason Hillary Clinton did: because misogyny exists, as do outdated ideas about who should hold the presidency,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told The Hill earlier this month. “Meanwhile, Trump has doubled down on this ‘strongman’ machismo and dictator’s act, playing ‘It’s a Man’s World’ at his rallies.”

Clinton lost the male vote to Trump in 2016 by 11 points, 41 percent to 52 percent, while she won the female vote by 13 points, 54 percent to 41 percent.


Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved.


Obama Calls BS On Reason For Voting

 Trump: 'Don’t You Give Him Credit For That'

Lee Moran

Fri, October 25, 2024

Former President Barack Obama on Thursday urged voters not to be “bamboozled” or “fooled” by one particular reason he’s heard about why people may vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

“Some folks will be like, ‘Well, Donald Trump sent me a check during the pandemic,’” Obama noted during a campaign rally speech for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in Georgia.

Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, did send out stimulus checks during the COVID-19 pandemic. And the then-president, whose handling of the public health crisis was widely slammed, insisted that they feature his signature.

Obama told the crowd, “Let me make sure you all understand this.”

Then he explained: “Joe Biden sent you a check during the pandemic just like I gave people relief during the Great Recession. The thing is, we didn’t put our name on it because it wasn’t about feeding our egos, it wasn’t about advancing our politics, it was about helping people. That’s the difference.”

“Don’t you give him credit for that. Come on,” he added.

Watch Obama’s comments here:


 

Leonardo DiCaprio Endorses Kamala Harris and Bashes Trump for Ignoring Climate Change: ‘He Continues to Deny the Science’

Ethan Shanfeld

Leonardo DiCaprio has endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

In a video posted to Instagram, the Oscar-winning actor discussed the damage of recent hurricanes Helene and Milton, saying “these unnatural disasters were caused by climate change.”

More from Variety

“Donald Trump continues to deny the facts. He continues to deny the science. He withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accords and rolled back critical environmental protections,” DiCaprio said. “Now he’s promised the oil and gas industry that he’ll get rid of any regulation they want in exchange for a billion-dollar donation.”

He added, “Climate change is killing the earth and ruining our economy. We need a bold step forward to save our economy, our planet and ourselves. That’s why I’m voting for Kamala Harris.”

DiCaprio said that Harris “helped lead the most significant climate action in U.S. history, including passing the inflation Reduction Act,” and he noted her goals to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and build a green economy “that not only creates jobs, but also helps save our planet.”

“Join me in voting for Kamala Harris on Nov. 5, because we cannot afford to go backwards,” the actor concluded.

An outspoken environmental advocate, DiCaprio did not outright endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 election but attended a fundraiser for the president in Los Angeles. Ahead of the 2016 election between Hillary Clinton and Trump, DiCaprio urged the audience at the now-discontinued Hollywood Film Awards to “vote for people who believe in the science of climate change.”

Watch DiCaprio’s remarks in full below.




What is the Electoral College and how does it work?

ELECTORAL COLLEGE IS A VESTIGIAL REMNANT OF WHITE SUPREMACY

THE TELEGRAPH
David Millward
Fri 25 October 2024

The Signing of the Constitution of the United States at the Constitutional Convention of 1787 - GraphicaArtis/Archive Photos


In 2016 Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton but became president as a result of his winning a majority in the Electoral College.

It was the fifth time in the history of the United States that a president has won the Oval Office and lost the popular vote.

Regarded as an anachronism by critics, there have been an estimated 700 attempts to scrap the College or reform it.

The first was made by Alexander Hamilton, one of the College’s original architects in 1802 and the most recent was in 1969 when a constitutional amendment was given overwhelming backing by the House of Representatives, but talked out by opponents in the Senate.

When the amendment was finally brought before the Senate in 1979, it was backed by a majority of senators but fell short of the two-thirds majority needed for a constitutional amendment.
Where did it begin?

The Electoral College dates back to the Philadelphia Convention in 1787, which gathered to put together a constitution for the fledgling nation.

At the time no country directly elected its head of state, so handing the choice over to the popular vote would have been entering uncharted territory.

While some delegates felt that allowing the legislature to choose the president could pave the way to behind-the-scenes deals and corruption, the majority feared the consequences of handing the choice over to “the mob” who, it was argued, would know little about the qualities of the candidate.
How does it work?

The Electoral College was, in effect, a compromise, allowing the people to vote for “electors” who would make the choice on their behalf.

There are 538 members of the Electoral College – which means a presidential candidate must secure the backing of 270 electors.

States’ allocation of electors is based on population and, as a result of the 2020 census 13 states saw the size of its delegation change.


Texas gained two seats in the college. Five other states Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one.

California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one.
How are members chosen?

Members of the Electoral College are chosen by the nominee for president.

In reality they are chosen by the party campaign in co-operation with local activists.

To reduce the risk of electors going “rogue”, members of the College would be reliable party members with a track record of falling into line.

They meet in State Capitols on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their ballots.

The certified results are then sent to Washington where, on January 6, the votes are tallied in a joint session of Congress, presided over by the sitting vice-president.
How are the votes distributed?

Use our searchable tool to see how many votes each state receives.
What happened on Jan 6?

Until January 6 2021, the meeting of the Electoral College was regarded as a formality, with the vice-president presiding over the meeting where the votes were counted.

Richard Nixon in 1961 and Al Gore in 2001 found themselves in the position of formally ratifying the candidate who had defeated them for the presidency the previous November.

Mike Pence, who was both vice-president and Donald Trump’s running mate, was in the same position when a mob stormed the Capitol.

Had the mob succeeded in preventing Mr Pence from presiding over the count, the choice of president would have fallen to the congressional delegations, with each state getting one vote.

With the Republicans having a majority of state delegations, this would have led to Mr Trump returning to the White House.
Does my vote count?

Yes, with certain qualifications. It is an indirect election and candidates with a minority of the popular vote have won the presidency.

On five occasions the Electoral College system has resulted in the election of a candidate who did not receive the most popular votes in the election:

1800, 1824, 1876, 2000, and, most famously, and recently in 2016, when the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton claimed 2.1 per cent more of the popular vote than Donald Trump, who, with 304 votes compared to 227, won the Electoral victory, and, therefore, his place in the White House.

These seven states will decide the election. Here’s what we learned reporting on the ground

Lauren Gambino, George Chidi, Chris McGreal, Maanvi Singh, Ed Pilkington, Joan E Greve and Alice Herman
THE GUARDIAN
Sat 26 October 2024

Election workers at the Maricopa county Tabulation and Election Center (MCTEC) in Phoenix, Arizona, on 23 October 2024.Photograph: Olivier Touron/AFP/Getty Images


Spare a thought for beleaguered Pennsylvanians. During the past few weeks, they have been pummeled with $280m worth of election ads blazing on their TV and computer screens, part of an eye-popping $2.1bn spent so far on the US presidential election.

Pennsylvania is one of the seven battleground states that, when it comes to choosing presidents, can seem as revered as the seven wonders of the world. Forget Democratic California, ditch reliably Republican Texas – it is these seven states that, come 5 November, will decide the outcome of one of the most consequential elections in modern times.

Their names are seared into the minds of politically aware Americans: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Under America’s arcane electoral system, the occupant of the Oval Office is elected not through the popular vote but by electoral college votes harvested state by state.


Among them, the seven states control 93 electoral college votes (Pennsylvania has the largest number, 19, which is why its residents are so bombarded). In the final days, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, will be scrambling all over them in a bid to reach the magic number: 270 electoral college votes to win.

The states are called battlegrounds for a reason – their loyalty cannot be taken for granted by either side. This year, though, their unpredictability has reached dizzying heights. The Guardian’s presidential poll tracker shows five of them essentially tied within a three-point margin of error, with only Arizona (where Trump is up four points) and Wisconsin (where Harris is up five) pulling away. Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ polling expert, has drily noted that the presidential polls are “starting to run out of room to get any closer”.

Guardian reporters are on the ground in each of the seven battlegrounds to test these confounding waters.

– Ed Pilkington

***
Arizona

‘Why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?’

On a stiflingly hot afternoon last month, Lynn and Roger Seeley relaxed into an air-conditioned co-working space in a suburb east of Phoenix. They had come to hear the Democratic candidate for US Senate, Ruben Gallego, make his pitch to a roomful of small-business owners. Lifelong Republicans, they might have felt out of place at a Democratic campaign event in the pre-Trump era. But not now.

“The Arizona Republican party is not the same Republican party,” said Lynn Seeley, who plans to vote for Kamala Harris in November. “It just doesn’t represent me anymore.”

The Seeleys are among a group of disaffected Arizonans known as “McCain Republicans” – moderates and independents who prefer the “maverick” brand of politics of the late Arizona Senator John McCain to Trump’s Maga movement.

The Trumpification of the state GOP, as well as rapid population growth, a large number of young Latino voters and a suburban shift away from the Republican party have created an opening for Democrats in recent election cycles, turning once ruby-red Arizona into a desert battleground.

Polling shows Donald Trump with a narrow edge over Harris in the presidential race. The Senate race, which is critical to the party’s slim hope of maintaining control of the chamber, appears to trend in Gallego’s favor. The state also features two of the most competitive House races in the country, both key to winning the speaker’s gavel. Arizonans are also voting on an initiative to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.

Across the sprawling Phoenix region, one of the fastest-growing in America, Trump and Harris signs dot xeriscaped yards. But roughly a third of Arizonans are unaffiliated, and since Trump’s election in 2016 they have broken for Democrats in key statewide races.

In 2020, Trump lost the state by fewer than 11,000 votes, the narrowest of any margin. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and before then, it was Harry Truman in 1948.

“Arizona is not a blue state,” said Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona. “Arizona has had very high inflation rates, very high increases in the cost of living, and an increase in the cost of gas. It’s a border state during a border crisis. A Republican candidate should be cleaning up in Arizona. So the question is: why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?”

Lauren Gambino | Chandler, Arizona

***
Georgia

Early voting hits records – but offers few clues

Mary Holewinski lives in Carrollton, Georgia, which is home turf for the far-right representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Holewinski is a Kamala Harris supporter and has a sign in her yard. It draws nasty looks, she said: “I’ve lost neighbor friends.”

Those tensions are ratcheting up, because the presidential election is already well under way in Georgia. More than 2 million Georgians - a quarter of its electorate - have already gone to the polls, setting early voting records each day.

Both Harris and Trump consider Georgia – no longer a stereotypical “deep south” state but one propelled by the economic and cultural clout of Atlanta - a crucial pickup. In 2020, the state went for Joe Biden by 11,780 votes

– and Trump has since been charged in an election interference case after calling Georgia’s secretary of state and asking him to “find” those 11,780 votes. A Georgia victory would represent belated validation for the former president.

The candidates may as well have leased apartments in Atlanta, for all the time they’re spending here. The difference between a Democrat winning 80% and 90% of their votes could be larger than the overall margin of victory.

But Georgia is no longer a state defined by Black and white voters. Asian and Latino population growth has changed the political landscape in suburban Atlanta, which helped drive the Biden victory here in 2020. And the conflict between conventional conservative Republicans and the Maga insurgency may also be determinative: suburban moderates in the Atlanta region turned against Trump in 2020, and he has done little since to win them back.

Still, while historically Democrats in Georgia have been more likely to vote early than Republicans, Trump has pointedly instructed his supporters to vote early in person in Georgia, and many appear to be doing just that.

“I could care less about whether you like him or not. It’s not a popularity contest,” said Justin Thompson, a retired air force engineer from Macon. “It’s what you got done. And he did get things done before the pandemic hit. And the only reason why he didn’t get re-elected was because the pandemic hit.”

George Chidi | Atlanta, Georgia

***
Michigan

Turnout is key in state where many are angry over Gaza

The trade union official had much to say, but he wasn’t going to say it in public.

The leader of a union branch at a Michigan factory, he was embarrassed to admit that most of its members support Donald Trump – even though he’s also disparaging about what he saw as the Democratic party elite’s failure to put the interests of working people ahead of powerful corporations.

“I don’t want to disagree with the members in public because they have their reasons to do what they think is good for protecting their jobs,” he said. “I’ve tried to explain that they’re wrong but they don’t want to hear it.”

Like many in Michigan, he found himself torn: despairing of Trump yet not greatly enthused by Harris. A Rust belt state that once prospered from making cars, steel and other industrial products, Michigan lost many jobs to Mexico after the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) by Bill Clinton, an enduring source of resentment against the Democrats for some voters that helped Trump to power.

That goes some way to explain why opinion polls continue to have the two candidates neck-and-neck in Michigan, even though the Harris campaign is heavily outspending Trump here and appears to have a better ground game with more volunteers.

Turnout will be key: Trump won here by just 10,704 votes in 2016, then lost narrowly to Biden four years later. High on the list of demographic targets are Black voters in Michigan’s largest city, Detroit, whose low turnout in 2016 was a factor in Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the state. Harris is also targeting white suburban women, many of whom previously supported Trump but have cooled on him over abortion rights, his continued false claims of election fraud and his criminal convictions.

For all of that, the election in Michigan may be decided by events far away.

More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats, many of them from the state’s Arab American community around Detroit, abstained from supporting Biden in the Democratic primaries earlier this year because of his support for Israel’s war in Gaza. So far, Harris has not significantly wavered from Biden on the issue. With polls this close, it could be decisive if Harris loses a fraction of these voters.

Chris McGreal | Saginaw, Michigan

***
Nevada

Is Harris or Trump better for the working class?

Urbin Gonzalez could have been working inside, in the air conditioning, at his regular job as a porter on the Las Vegas Strip. Instead, in the final days before the US election, he had chosen to go door-knocking in the 104F (40C) heat.

“I don’t care because I’m fighting for my situation,” said Gonzalez, dabbing the sweat from his neck. “All Trump wants to do is cut taxes for his buddies, for his rich friends, not for us. Not for workers … This is personal.”

While the US economy broadly bounced back from the pandemic, Nevada has lagged behind. Nearly a quarter of jobs here are in leisure or hospitality, and although the Las Vegas Strip, where Gonzalez works, is back to booming with tourists, unemployment in Nevada remains the highest of any US state, and housing costs have skyrocketed.

Both Trump and Harris have promised to turn things around: both have promised to eliminate federal income taxes on workers’ tips, and both have vowed to expand tax credits for parents – though their plans widely differ when it comes to the finer points.

Although Nevada has leaned Democratic in every presidential election since 2008, winning candidates have scraped by with slim margins. About 40% of voters don’t identify with either Democrats or Republicans, and although a growing number of Latino voters – who now make up 20% of the electorate – have traditionally backed Democrats, the party’s popularity is slipping.

The state, which has just six electoral votes, is notoriously difficult to accurately poll – in large part because the big cities, Reno and Las Vegas, are home to a transient population, many of whom work unpredictable shifts in the state’s 24/7 entertainment and hospitality industries. But many voters remember the days early in the Trump administration when costs were lower. “I think the economy was just better when Trump was president,” said Magaly Rodas, 32, while shopping at her local Latin market. Her husband, an electrician, has struggled to find work since the pandemic, while rent and other expenses have continued to climb. “What have the Democrats done for us in four years?”

Maanvi Singh | Las Vegas, Nevada

***
North Carolina

A hurricane is a wild card that could depress turnout

Kim Blevins, 55, knows what it’s like to survive a disaster. She was locked inside her home without power for eight days when Hurricane Helene struck western North Carolina last month.

So when she uses the experience as a frame through which to view the impending election, she is not being frivolous. “If Trump doesn’t get in, it’s going to be worse than the hurricane,” she said.

“It’ll be world war three. Kamala Harris wants to make us a communist country and we can’t survive that. The illegals coming over the border, the inflation of food and gas prices, we can’t do that.”

Hurricane Helene has raised a critical challenge for Donald Trump.

It affected a rural mountainous region that is Trump’s natural base – some 23 out of the 25 stricken counties are majority-Maga. So any decline in turnout would most likely hurt him.

Trump needs to win North Carolina if he is to have an easy shot at returning to the White House. The state veers Republican, only voting for a Democratic president twice in recent times (Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008). Trump took it in 2020 by just 75,000 votes.

Yet Harris has succeeded since she took over the Democratic mantle from Joe Biden in making this race neck-and-neck.

In the final stretch, Trump is focusing on getting his base of largely white rural voters to the polls, hurricane be damned. His campaign has been heartened by the first week of early voting, which has smashed all records, with Republicans almost matching Democrats in turnout. (In 2020 and 2016, Republicans lagged behind.)

On her side, Harris is waging an intense ground game, with hundreds of staffers fanning out across the state to squeeze out every vote. The thinking is that if Trump can be blocked in North Carolina, he can be stopped from regaining power.

For that to happen, Harris has to mobilize her broad tent of support, with special emphasis on women in the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. She is also trying to shore up the male African American vote, which has shown some softness.

Not least, she is trying to tie Trump to Mark Robinson, the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate. Robinson has described himself as a “Black Nazi”, and has been revealed to have made extreme racist remarks.

Ed Pilkington | Creston, North Carolina

***
Pennsylvania

‘If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing’

Pennsylvania provided one of the most enduring images of the fraught US election cycle: Donald Trump raising his fist to a crowd of supporters after a gunman attempted to end his life at a campaign rally in July. As Trump left the stage in Butler, Pennsylvania, with blood dripping from his ear, his supporters chanted: “Fight! Fight!”

Days later, Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, clearing the way for Kamala Harris to ascend to the Democratic nomination.

Both Trump and Harris have returned to Pennsylvania dozens of times since, confirming that the Keystone state could play a definitive role in the presidential race. “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania last month. “It’s very simple.”

As the fifth-most-populous US state, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any of the battlegrounds. Much of the population is clustered around Philadelphia and smaller cities like Pittsburgh and Scranton, where Biden showed strength in 2020, but the more rural regions could play an outsized role in the election. White, blue-collar voters in these rural areas have sharply shifted away from Democrats in recent elections.

Some Democrats expected Harris to choose the popular governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate, given his impressive ability to secure consistent victories in such a closely-contested state. Harris instead chose Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, a decision that could come back to haunt her depending on the results in Pennsylvania.

In her bid to sway undecided voters, Harris has walked back some of her most progressive proposals from her 2020 presidential campaign – such as a ban on fracking, a major industry in Pennsylvania, on which she has now reversed her stance.

It could all come down to Pennsylvania. Tom Morrissey, a 67-year-old voter from Harleysville attending a Democratic campaign event last month, was optimistic . “We love the enthusiasm. It’s so important at this time,” Morrissey said. “We have to save democracy.”

Joan E Greve | Ambler, Pennsylvania

***
Wisconsin

‘Let the anxiety wash over you and then refocus’

Wearing matching hats emblazoned with the words “Sauk County Democrats”, Deb and Rod Merritt, a retired couple from southern Wisconsin, joined the crowd to hear Barack Obama stump for Kamala Harris.

“We’re so apprehensive that the polls say they’re close,” said Rod Merritt.

Sauk county is one of a handful of Wisconsin counties that has flipped from Democrats to Republicans and back. It’s exactly the kind of place – a swing county in a swing state – that the campaigns are fighting over.

A midwestern state in the Great Lakes region known for dairy production, manufacturing and healthcare, Wisconsin is considered to be part of the “blue wall” – the states Democrats consistently won in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Trade unions historically helped drive voter turnout for Democrats, but a series of anti-labor laws passed under the Republican-controlled state government in 2011 dealt them a blow. Rural areas have increasingly turned to Republican candidates, leaving cities like Milwaukee – Wisconsin’s most racially diverse – and the liberal stronghold of Madison as Democratic bastions.

With the economy the top issue, it all comes down to turnout, with Republicans focusing on rural voters and young men, who have increasingly looked to conservative politics.

The Democrats, meanwhile, hope the closeness of the race – in which a half-million people have already voted – will mobilize volunteers. “In some ways, the most important thing is learning some breathing exercises so that you can let the anxiety wash through you – and then refocus on knocking on the next door,” said Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic party of Wisconsin.

Alice Herman | Madison, Wisconsin

Far-Right House Leader Calls on North Carolina to Pre-emptively Give Donald Trump Its Electoral Votes

Lizzie Hyman
PEOPLE
Fri, October 25, 2024

Rep. Andy Harris, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, proposed that the swing state's Republican-controlled legislature could hand their 16 Electoral College votes to Trump regardless of the election results




Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty; Emily Elconin/Getty

Maryland Rep. Andy Harris has proposed that North Carolina deviate from the democratic voting process in the 2024 election by preemptively allocating the state’s presidential electors to former President Donald Trump, according to Politico.

At the Talbot County Lincoln Reagan Dinner on Thursday, Oct. 24, the chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, 67, asserted that it "makes a lot of sense" for North Carolina's Republican-controlled legislature to directly decide the winner, given the potential barriers to voting that some areas are facing amid the Hurricane Helene recovery efforts.

Related: Donald Trump Tells N.C. He 'Didn't Have to' Come See Hurricane Damage: 'I Could've Been on a Beautiful Beach'

"You statistically can go and say, 'Look, you got disenfranchised in 25 counties. You know what that vote probably would have been,' " the congressman said in conversation with MAGA operative Ivan Raiklin, who has endorsed a similar plan to ensure a Trump victory in North Carolina.

Rep. Harris continued by saying that the devastation from Hurricane Helene "would be — if I were in the legislature — enough to go, 'Yeah, we have to convene the Legislature. We can’t disenfranchise the voters.' "

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty

While Rep. Harris acknowledged that it would appear to be "just a power play" if other states started allocating Electoral College votes before ballots had been counted, he argued that in North Carolina, "it’s legitimate."

"There are a lot of people that aren’t going to get to vote and it may make the difference in that state," he said.

In response to his comments when he was asked to elaborate, Harris issued a statement to Politico, writing, “As I’ve repeatedly said, every legal vote should be counted. I would hope everyone could agree that legal American voters whose lives were devastated by the recent storms should not be disenfranchised in the upcoming voting process.”

Related: Kamala Harris Slams Donald Trump for ‘Playing Games’ with Hurricane Misinformation: ‘I Fear He Lacks Empathy’


Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Maryland Rep. Andy Harris, the chair of the House Freedom Caucus

Raiklin, 46, posted his exchange with Harris on Thursday night on X, writing, "Breaking! @freedomcaucus chairman @RepAndyHarrisMD at Talbot County Lincoln Reagan Dinner agrees that NC Speaker of the House @NCHouseSpeaker and the State Legislature should convene a joint session to allocate the electors on Nov 5 directly to ensure the franchise of 25 counties is restored."

Raiklin himself has raised concerns by positioning himself as a potential "secretary of retribution" in a future Trump administration. He has reportedly compiled a "Deep State Target List" of 350 individuals he considers enemies, and has promised to appoint "Constitutional sheriffs" to go after those enemies if Trump is elected and offer them "the maximum punishment for treason." (The Department of Justice says that treason can be punishable by death.)

Raiklin was the man who shared a two-page memo on X (then called Twitter) in December 2020 called "Operation Pence Card," which detailed a plan to have Vice President Mike Pence reject the certification of the 2020 election results. Trump retweeted the memo, and after the idea grew in popularity, Pence ultimately refused to participate.

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North Carolinians will play a key role in deciding the next president. The state is one of seven battlegrounds identified in the 2024 election, carrying a large prize of 16 Electoral College votes for the winner. Polls suggest that Kamala Harris has a chance at flipping the state blue, with Trump only an inch ahead in most surveys.

Republican draws criticism for call to bypass election in North Carolina

Moira Warburton
Fri, October 25, 2024 

Members of ReOpen Maryland hold a road rally procession calling for the re-opening for the state of Maryland amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Sailsbury, Maryland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Republican U.S. lawmaker this week suggested the storm-hit state of North Carolina should allocate its votes in the Electoral College to Republican Donald Trump before the Nov. 5 election has taken place, drawing criticism from Democrats.

Representative Andy Harris of Maryland, who chairs the hardline House Freedom Caucus, said in an exchange captured on video on Thursday that given the destruction caused in North Carolina by last month's Hurricane Helene, the state legislature should preemptively declare that Trump won the state's 16 Electoral College votes, to avoid "disenfranchised voters."

His comments were first reported by Politico.

North Carolina is one of seven battleground states expected to play a decisive role in determining whether Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris is the next U.S. president. Polls show Trump with a marginal lead in the state.

Democrats slammed Harris' suggestion.

"Voters decide elections, not far-right politicians," Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

"It's really important to understand the mainstream Republican goal - to make Donald Trump President whether or not he wins the election," Senator Chris Murphy said in a social media post.

Harris' campaign did not immediately return a request for comment.

Twice this century, Democrats have won the majority of the national popular vote without securing the 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House: in 2000, when the U.S. Supreme Court declared Republican George W. Bush the election's winner and in 2016, when Trump was first elected.

(Reporting by Moira Warburton in Washington; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Freedom Caucus chair says he was taken out of context on legislature deciding presidential electors

BRIAN WITTE
Fri, October 25, 2024 



The chairman of the House Freedom Caucus said Friday that news reports quoting him as saying the North Carolina legislature could allocate the state’s presidential electors to Donald Trump before the votes are counted were based on a conversation that was “taken out of context.”

The comments from Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland had been made at a Republican Party dinner in an exchange with a pro-Trump activist who had given the keynote address. The activist suggested that legislatures in several states, including North Carolina, could convene on Election Day and allocate their state’s electors to Trump. The comments from the Thursday dinner in Maryland were first reported by Politico.

Harris, speaking after the speech, referenced the counties in western North Carolina that had sustained major damage from Hurricane Helene. In reaction to the activist's proposal, he said, “for North Carolina, that makes a lot of sense,” according to a video.

“I mean, you statistically can go and say: ’Hey, look, you’ve got disenfranchised in 25 counties. You know what that vote probably would have been, which would be, if I were in the legislature, enough to go: Yeah, we’ve got to convene the legislature, and we can’t disenfranchise the voters. But how do you make the argument in other states? I mean, otherwise, it looks like it’s just a power play,” Harris said.

“With North Carolina, I mean, it’s legitimate. I mean, there are a lot of people who aren’t going to get to vote, and it may make the difference in that state,” he said.

Such a maneuver doesn’t appear to be possible under current North Carolina law.

The state’s law on awarding presidential electors limits the General Assembly’s role to extenuating circumstances after an election if other steps in the process aren’t met. Any attempt by a legislature to subvert the will of the voters and promote an alternate slate of electors also appears to run afoul of the Electoral Count Act, passed by Congress after Trump attempted to stop certification of the 2020 presidential election.


People wait in line at the polling place at Black Mountain Library during the first day of early in-person voting, on Oct. 17, 2024, in Black Mountain, N.C. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

The offices of North Carolina Senate leader Phil Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore, both Republicans, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Harris issued a statement Friday after his comments from the dinner drew widespread attention.

“Yesterday’s theoretical conversation has been taken out of context,” he said in a statement. “As I’ve repeatedly said, every legal vote should be counted."

He also said “voting is going well in western North Carolina."

There has been bipartisan agreement on the steps needed to improve voting access in the counties affected by Helene. The North Carolina State Board of Elections — made up of both Democratic and Republican members — unanimously approved a resolution earlier this month expanding opportunities for absentee ballot pickup and giving local boards more flexibility.

The Republican-controlled General Assembly passed legislation to expand those changes to the 25 affected counties. State lawmakers also passed a bill on Thursday that requires 13 mountain counties to have at least one early, in-person voting site for every 30,000 registered voters as soon as possible.

Early voting throughout the state, including in the areas hit hard by the hurricane, has been robust. The state elections board has repeatedly praised the efforts of local election workers to ensure that all voters are able to cast their ballots.

Asked for her reaction to Harris' comments, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said, "America deserves to have leaders who respect the importance of one of the pillars and foundations of our democracy, which is free and fair elections, and that they are not manipulated by elected leaders for the sake of their own political future or their own political strategy for how they themselves want to succeed.

"This has to be about what’s in the best interest of the American people.”

___

Associated Press writers Gary Robertson and Makiya Seminera in Raleigh, North Carolina, contributed to this report.

"Power play": Freedom Caucus head urges North Carolina to grant Trump electoral college votes

Griffin Eckstein
SALON
Fri, October 25, 2024 

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
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A high-ranking Republican congressman outlined a scheme to preempt the will of voters and award North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes to former president Donald Trump before ballots are tallied in that state.

Maryland Rep. Andy Harris argued on Thursday that the devastation of Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and the potential voting challenges in the deepest-red counties that remain, should push the state's legislature to award Trump their electoral college votes.

The chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, said that a plan to deliver Trump the state without an election “makes a lot of sense.”

“You statistically can go and say, ‘Look, you got disenfranchised in 25 counties. You know what that vote probably would have been,’” Harris argued. “Which would be — if I were in the Legislature — enough to go, ‘Yeah, we have to convene the Legislature. We can’t disenfranchise the voters.’”

The move was suggested during a Republican dinner in Talbot County, Maryland. Harris was responding to keynote speaker Ivan Raiklin’s plan to use GOP-controlled legislatures in multiple swing states to award electors to Trump regardless of election outcomes.



“It looks like just a power play,” Harris conceded about Raiklin’s scheme. “In North Carolina, it’s legitimate. There are a lot of people that aren’t going to get to vote and it may make the difference in that state.”

North Carolina Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry told Politico that he hadn’t heard about the plot, but dismissed the idea.
“It makes no sense whatsoever to prejudge the election outcome. And that is a misinformed view of what is happening on the ground in North Carolina, bless his heart,” McHenry said. “I’m confident we’ll have a safe and fair election in North Carolina, and then everyone that wishes to vote will have the opportunity.”

North Carolina has been in the cross-hairs of GOP operators since Hurricane Helene ravaged the area. Trump and his acolytes have spread the conspiracy theory that government officials are slow-walking recovery efforts in the area because of a supposed Republican bent. Officials on both sides of the aisle have debunked these claims repeatedly.

Fox News edited Trump’s rambling answers and false claims in barbershop interview, full video shows

Fox News · CNN Business


Brian Stelter and Liam Reilly, CNN
Thu, October 24, 2024 

The Fox News Channel’s recent segment about Donald Trump’s “surprise” visit to a barbershop in the Bronx resembled a campaign ad for the former president’s reelection.

Trump was seen taking questions and making small talk with Black and Hispanic barbershop customers and workers, some of whom were wearing “Make Barbers Great Again” shirts. The visit was part of “Fox & Friends” co-host Lawrence Jones’ ongoing barbershop interview series.

But the version of the visit shown on television was, to borrow a hairstyle metaphor, a crop cut. Fox edited out many of Trump’s rambling comments and false claims. Participants had to repeatedly follow up when Trump meandered away from the original point of their questions.

CNN reviewed a more complete video of the barbershop visit that was uploaded to Instagram on the day of Trump’s appearance in the Bronx and compared it to the segments that were shown on “Fox & Friends” on Monday.

Fox’s edits omitted numerous Trump tangents and exaggerations – a striking decision given Trump’s recent attacks on CBS newsmagazine “60 Minutes” for editing an interview with his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, earlier this month.

Trump’s complaints about “60 Minutes” center on an edit of Harris’ comment about the relationship between Israel and the United States. He has charged that CBS manipulated the Harris interview to “make her look better” and demanded that CBS release the unedited transcript of the interview, which CBS has declined to do.

Ironically, however, Fox edited several of Trump’s recent appearances on the network, including his visit to the barbershop. And some of the edits certainly make him look better.

The televised broadcast omitted Trump’s comments about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. He told the barbershop customers that “they just dumped 50,000 people — 32,000 migrants from another country — in Springfield, Ohio. They don’t know what to do.” The actual number of migrants in Springfield is far lower, according to the city’s own data. The broadcast also left out Trump’s gross exaggerations about crime in Aurora, Colorado.

One of the most telling parts of the dialogue began when an audience member asked Trump about finding a way to eliminate federal taxes in the future. On Fox, Trump was shown immediately answering affirmatively: “There is a way.”

But that response from Trump actually came more than seven minutes later, after Trump (and Jones) brought up other topics, including inheritances, the Keystone Pipeline, Ronald Reagan, Russia, and transgender sports players. Trump had to be nudged back on track several times by the unnamed audience member, who kept circling back, apologetically, and said “I wasn’t able to finish my question.” After he repeated his tax inquiry yet again, Trump said “there is a way.”

But on Fox, it was stitched together as one seamless back-and-forth.

Fox also cut some of the former president’s insults, as when he mocked the Wall Street Journal, a sister property of Fox. “Don’t listen” to the “Wall Street jerks or Wall Street Journal, cause they don’t get it,” Trump told the barbershop audience.

In another unplayed portion of the visit, Trump praised Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban and called him a “very respected guy.” That exchange underscored Trump’s tendency to favor autocratic leaders, but Fox decided not to share it with viewers.

A Fox News spokeswoman said every one of Jones’ barbershop segments are pretaped and edited. The Bronx edition ran for nearly an hour and was cut for time and clarity, the network said.

Trump’s recent appearance on the Fox News program “MediaBuzz” was also pretaped and edited. One obvious edit occurred when Trump began to repeat his false claims about the 2020 election – a sensitive subject for Fox since the network is still dealing with defamation lawsuits relating to its coverage in 2020.

“They came down to protest a rigged election,” Trump said, referring to January 6. Then there was a sudden cut, suggesting that some of Trump’s distortions were removed.