Monday, October 28, 2024

China's private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown


FILE PHOTO: Children and their parents are seen on their way to the school in Tianhe district in Guanghzou

FILE PHOTO: China showcases poverty alleviation during a government organised tour of Tibet

FILE PHOTO: Students attend a class at the Wenchang Middle School in Yuexi during a government-organised media tour in Liangshan

FILE PHOTO: Girl stands near an outlet of private educational services provider New Oriental Education and Technology Group in Beijing

Sun, October 27, 2024 
By Casey Hall and Laurie Chen

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China is quietly easing regulatory pressure on private tutoring operators as it looks to revive a flagging economy, spurring a nascent revival of a sector hit hard by a government crackdown three years ago, according to industry figures, analysts and data reviewed by Reuters.

There has been no formal acknowledgement of a change in policy. But there is now tacit consent from policymakers to allow the tutoring industry to grow, in a pivot by Beijing to support job creation, eight industry figures and two analysts familiar with the developments told Reuters.

The shift is evident in new growth among tutoring businesses and moves by Beijing to clarify its approach, as well as in Reuters interviews with five Chinese parents who described a gradual liberalisation in recent months.

Details in this story about the relaxation of policy enforcement and the increasing openness of tutoring organisations' operations have not been previously reported.

Starting in 2021, a government crackdown known as the "double reduction" policy prohibited for-profit tutoring in core school subjects, with the aim of easing educational and financial pressure on parents and students.

The move wiped billions of dollars off the market value of providers such as New Oriental Education & Technology Group and TAL Education Group, and led to tens of thousands of job losses. Before the crackdown, China's for-profit tutoring industry was valued at some $100 billion and its three biggest players employed over 170,000 people.

Still, the industry proved resilient, as parents like Michelle Lee, 36, continued to seek tutoring services to give their children a leg-up in China's ultracompetitive education system.

Lee, who is based in southern China, spends 3,000 yuan a month, or about $420, on after-school classes for her son and daughter, including one-on-one mathematics tutoring and online lessons in English. She told Reuters that in recent months tutoring schools had been operating more openly than they have since 2021.

"When the policy first came out, I think those tutoring organisations were a little bit scared, so they kind of hid, like they would close the curtains during class," she said. "But it seems like they don't do that anymore."

In China's high-pressure educational environment, parents have little choice but to rely on outside tutoring just so their children can keep pace, Lee said, adding that she had "felt a huge sense of failure" as she tried to support her children's education.

China's education ministry did not respond to questions about its evolving approach to the tutoring industry.

At a ministry press conference in March, Liu Xiya, a delegate of China's legislature and president of a Chongqing-based education group, told local media that "pain points" in education policy were gradually being addressed.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said China was unlikely to admit that the crackdown "was a little too forceful". Rather, there would be a "tacit easing back toward a looser regulatory stance", he said.

"The overall policy environment has shifted from restrictive to supportive as the main goal now is stabilisation," Song said, adding that the tutoring industry should benefit from the broader shift.

EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT

Two executives at large tutoring companies who deal with regulatory issues told Reuters that government moves to ease the crackdown had accelerated in recent months.

Most notable was a decision in August by the State Council, China's cabinet, to include education services in a 20-point plan to boost consumption - a key aspect of Beijing's efforts to fire up the economy. The move boosted stocks of listed education companies, and came as more than 11 million university graduates entered China's employment market.

That announcement followed draft guidelines from China's education ministry in February, which clarified the kinds of off-campus tutoring that would be permitted, and its introduction last year of an online "white list" of companies approved to provide tutoring in non-core subjects.

In addition, inspections by local authorities of tutoring schools have lessened considerably of late from their peak early in the crackdown, one of the executives said.

Both executives said the message they have received from Chinese officials since August is that the tutoring industry will remain tightly regulated, but with a wider pathway to operate successfully and above-board, provided operators do not flout restrictions on teaching core academic curriculum. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorised to talk to the media.

Claudia Wang, who leads the Asia Education Practice at consultancy Oliver Wyman, said that having eliminated some low-quality players, the government was pinning hope on the education sector to help address "super high" youth unemployment.

"I think that's very, very fundamental to the shift," Wang said.

Hiring patterns and other moves by listed education firms point to an expansion of the industry this year.

Active licenses for extracurricular for-profit tutoring centres rose 11.4% between January and June, according to research firm Plenum China.

TAL and New Oriental have been hiring for thousands of positions this year, according to data from their annual reports and a Reuters review of job listings on major Chinese employment platforms. The number of schools and learning centres operated by New Oriental and TAL has also rebounded, according to data from the companies and Plenum China.

The companies' shares have traded this year at their highest on average since 2021, though still far below pre-crackdown levels.

New Oriental declined to comment to Reuters about how it was responding to the changing regulatory landscape, while TAL did not reply to a similar request. In its annual report in September, New Oriental noted continuing "significant risks" from the ways in which regulations and policies related to private education are interpreted and implemented.

"We have been closely monitoring the evolving regulatory environment and are making efforts to seek guidance from and cooperate with the government authorities to comply," the report said.

CREATIVE CURRICULUM

Another reason for the industry's revival is that it proved impossible to eliminate.

In practice, private tutoring operators, while diminished, continued to exist in various forms, often redesigning courses to skirt restrictions or advertising them under code words. Mathematics-related courses, for example, are commonly marketed as "logical thinking".

Lisa ran an English tutoring school in the eastern province of Zhejiang that shifted its curriculum to comply with rules that prohibit the teaching of core subjects such as mathematics and English.

Lisa, who declined to give her full name for fear of official retribution, said she laid off 60% of her staff following the crackdown. But the school maintained classes by pivoting to teaching science-related courses in English, without calling them English classes.

One-on-one tutoring, meanwhile, flourished as parents who could afford the higher prices hired tutors to come to their homes.

That worried parents like Yang Zengdong, a Shanghai-based mother of two, who said the policy presented families with the unenviable choice of paying up to 800 yuan per class for a private tutor or investing hours each day themselves in helping their children keep up.

"If double reduction continues, the academic gap between rich people and everyone else will get worse," she said.

"That wasn't what the policy was meant to do but that's the reality, so of course it needs to change."

Seven European countries match US in startup-friendly laws, report says

Have changed their laws to increase employee ownership in startups to rival the U.S



Sun, October 27, 2024

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Seven European countries have changed their laws to increase employee ownership in startups to rival the U.S. in attracting talent and investment, while other countries are lagging, a report by venture capital firm Index Ventures found.

While stock options were integral to Silicon Valley’s success, Europe has been hampered by bureaucracy and by taxing employees too early, among other restrictions.

The European Union needs a coordinated industrial policy, rapid decisions and massive investment if it wants to keep pace with the U.S. and China economically, Mario Draghi said in a long awaited report last month.

Over 500 startup CEOs and founders joined a campaign called "Not Optional" in 2019 to change rules that govern employee ownership — the practice of giving staff options to acquire a slice of the company as they compete for talent with U.S. firms.

Germany, France, Portugal and the UK lead European countries in making changes that match or exceed those of the U.S., while Finland, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden got lower ratings in the Index report.

When companies such as Revolut and others go public, that ownership translates into real money for employees, said Martin Mignot, a partner at Index and an investor at fintech Revolut, which is valued at $45 billion.

($1 = 0.9236 euros)

(Reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in Stockholm; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
Woman charged with assaulting Australian Aboriginal Senator who shouted at King Charles III

ROD McGUIRK
Sun, October 27, 2024 

Australian Senator Lidia Thorpe, center, disrupts proceedings as Britain's King Charles III and Queen Camilla attend a Parliamentary reception hosted by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and partner Jodie Jaydon at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. (Lukas Coch/Pool Photo via AP)

In this image made from video, Australian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe speaks in a television interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, in Melbourne, Australia, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024.
(Australian Broadcasting Corporation via AP)

MELBOURNE, Australia (AP) — A woman appeared in an Australian court on Monday charged with a May assault on the Indigenous senator who shouted at King Charles III during a royal reception last week.

The assault allegedly occurred on May 25, when independent Sen. Lidia Thorpe attended an Australian Rules Football match in her hometown of Melbourne.

Ebony Bell, 28, appeared by a video link in Melbourne Magistrates’ Court. She has been charged with two counts of recklessly causing injury and three counts of unlawful assault at a stadium.

A police statement described the 51-year-old senator’s injuries from the alleged assault as “minor.”

But she said in a statement to the AP on Monday she had “sustained serious nerve and spinal injuries in my neck, which required spinal surgery and a plate to be inserted.”

The assault was reported to police the next day and Bell was arrested on July 25. The women knew each other, but the motive for the alleged attack was not explained in court.

Bell’s lawyer Manny Nicolosi told Magistrate Belinda Franjic the prosecution case had “real deficiencies.” He said the prosecution had on Friday made an “offer,” an apparent reference to a plea deal.

“I haven’t had enough time to really consider it,” Nicolosi told the court.

Nicolosi explained that his Indigenous client hadn’t appeared in court in person because of “recent threats.” The lawyer did not elaborate on those threats.

Bell remains free on bail until she appears in court next on Nov. 22. The magistrate agreed to allow her to appear again by video.

Thorpe made her first public statement about the alleged assault after she launched an expletive-laden rant at Charles during a reception in Australian Parliament House in Canberra last week.

“You are not our king. You are not sovereign,” Thorpe yelled at Charles as she was led by security guards from the reception.

“You committed genocide against our people. Give us our land back. Give us what you stole from us: our bones, our skulls, our babies, our people,” she added.

The main opposition party has called for Thorpe to resign from the Senate due to her attitude toward Charles, who is Australia’s head of state, and have requested legal advice.

Thorpe is renowned for high-profile protest action. When she was affirmed as a senator in 2022, she wasn’t allowed to describe the then-monarch as “the colonizing Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.” She briefly blocked a police float in Sydney’s Gay and Lesbian Madri Gras last year by lying on the street in front of it. Last year, she was also banned for life from a Melbourne strip club after video emerged of her shouting abuse at male patrons.

She revealed her injuries after The Australian newspaper reported she had missed 16 of the Senate's 44 sitting days this year.

“I was ordered by the doctor not to travel and could not attend parliament after I sustained the injury and during recovery from surgery. My doctor told me to take time off work,” her statement said.

“I would have preferred to keep this matter private and I will not be commenting on it further at this stage,” she added.

Thorpe was widely criticized for being disrespectful to the monarch during her outburst last week.

She faces a further backlash next week when senators sit for the first time since the royal visit.

Her office said Monday she has not decided whether she plans to attend senate committee meetings in person or remotely.



She also raised questions about the validity of her appointment to the Senate when she recently said she had deliberately affirmed her allegiance to Queen Elizabeth II and her “hairs,” rather than “heirs,” during her affirmation ceremony in 2022 to exclude Charles. Thorpe later walked back that statement, saying the mispronunciation was accidental.

Lawyers agree that a mispronunciation did not invalidate an affirmation and that Thorpe also signed a written version of the affirmation of allegiance with the correct wording.

Sydney University constitutional lawyer Anne Twomey said the Senate's ability to discipline Thorpe was limited because her outburst occurred outside the chamber in Parliament's Great Hall.

‘Not my King’ protest row highlights Australian divisions

Hannah Ritchie - BBC News, Sydney
Sat, October 26, 2024 


When an Aboriginal Australian senator heckled King Charles moments after he delivered a speech in the nation’s Parliament House, it caught the world’s attention.

Lidia Thorpe’s cries of “not my King” and “this is not your land” shone a light on a country that is still grappling with its colonial past.

But in the debate that followed on the “appropriateness” of the protest, something else became clear: a split within the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community itself.

In the wake of an unsuccessful referendum on their constitutional recognition - which left many feeling silenced - the question Australia’s first inhabitants are now grappling with is how to achieve the self-determination they have fought so long for.

Indigenous Australians are classed as the oldest living culture on earth, and have inhabited the continent for at least 65,000 years.

For more than 200 years though - since the 1770 arrival of Captain James Cook and subsequent British settlement - they have endured long chapters of colonial violence, including the theft of their lands, livelihoods, and even children.

As a result, today, they still face acute disadvantages in terms of health, wealth, education, and life expectancy compared to non-Indigenous Australians.

But, as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people make up less than 4% of the national population, their struggles rarely translate into national voting issues, experts say.

Last year’s Voice to Parliament referendum - which asked whether Australia should recognise its first inhabitants in the constitution and allow them a body to advise the parliament - was a key exception.

The result was a resounding ‘No’, with one major analysis of the data suggesting many voters found the proposal divisive and ineffective.

The Voice to Parliament proposal was decisively rejected in a referendum last year [EPA]

And while the figures indicate a majority of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people voted 'Yes', support wasn’t unanimous. Thorpe herself was a leading ‘No’ campaigner, having criticised the measure as tokenistic and “an easy way to fake progress”.

But Larissa Baldwin-Roberts, a Widjabul Wia-bal woman and activist, says the ‘No’ outcome left most Indigenous Australians with “a sense of humiliation and rejection”. She adds that the debate itself - which saw countless examples of misinformation and disinformation - unleashed a wave of “racist rhetoric” that their communities are still recovering from.

The big-picture impact of the Voice, Ms Baldwin-Roberts argues, has been a growing sentiment that traditional reconciliation efforts are “dead”. Those approaches have long tried to bridge the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians through polite dialogue and education.

It was against this backdrop that Thorpe made her protest in parliament.

“You can’t reconcile with a country that doesn’t see you,” Ms Baldwin-Roberts tells the BBC. “You can’t reconcile with a country that doesn’t think that you deserve justice.”



Ms Baldwin-Roberts says “new strategies” are needed to disrupt the status quo. She sees Thorpe’s action as “incredibly brave” and reflective of conversations many First Nations people are having.

“There are Indigenous communities around the country talking about our stolen children, our stolen histories - but she had access to that room. As an Australian senator she knows she’s going to get media, and it’s important to make this a talking point.”

Australia Day - held on the anniversary of Britain's First Fleet arriving at Sydney Cove - has become an annual target of protests [EPA]

Daniel Williams, who is of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander descent, agrees.

“After the [referendum] last year, what do Indigenous people have left? How can we find [an] audience with the monarch to effect change?” he asked a political panel on the ABC.

“We're talking about 200 years of pain that is continuing to be unanswered and unresolved.”

Others see it differently though: there is a long history of Indigenous leaders petitioning the Royal Family to recognise their peoples’ struggle, but the independent’s senator’s act - for some - went too far.

Nova Peris, a former senator who was the first Aboriginal woman in parliament, described it as an “embarrassing” move which didn’t “reflect the manners, or approach to reconciliation, of Aboriginal Australians at large”.

Both sides of parliament dismissed it as disrespectful and a failed attempt at grandstanding.

Prof Tom Calma, a Kungarakan and Iwaidja man who was in the room, said it risked alienating “the other 96%” of Australia’s population who may not “see or understand the enduring impacts of colonisation”.

“I don’t think the protest - the way that Senator Thorpe went about it - brings people along with us. And in the spirit of reconciliation, we need allies.”

Mr Calma also felt that Thorpe’s demand that King Charles “give [Indigenous people] a treaty” was misplaced, given that those negotiations would be handled by Australia’s government, not the Crown.

As it stands, Australia is one of the only Commonwealth countries to have never signed a treaty, or treaties, with its first inhabitants, or to have recognised them in its founding document.

And with a general election expected before mid-next year, both sides of politics have sought to move on swiftly from the Voice debate, leaving much uncertainty over future policy.

For Ms Baldwin-Roberts, this week’s juxtaposition between the crowds of royal supporters decked out in regalia, and those engaging in protest nearby, reflects “a large separation and social reality between Australia’s Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations” that exists today.

And in order to bridge that gap, she believes “there has to be some level of reckoning”.

PHOTO ESSAY

On Navajo Nation, a push to electrify more homes on the vast reservation

JOSHUA A. BICKEL and SUMAN NAISHADHAM
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024

HALCHITA, Utah (AP) — After a five-year wait, Lorraine Black and Ricky Gillis heard the rumblings of an electrical crew reach their home on the sprawling Navajo Nation.

In five days' time, their home would be connected to the power grid, replacing their reliance on a few solar panels and propane lanterns. No longer would the CPAP machine Gillis uses for sleep apnea or his home heart monitor transmitting information to doctors 400 miles away face interruptions due to intermittent power. It also means Black and Gillis can now use more than a few appliances — such as a fridge, a TV, and an evaporative cooling unit — at the same time.

“We’re one of the luckiest people who get to get electric,” Gillis said.

Many Navajo families still live without running water and electricity, a product of historic neglect and the struggle to get services to far-flung homes on the 27,000-square-mile (70,000-square-kilometer) Native American reservation that lies in parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Some rely on solar panels or generators, which can be patchy, and others have no electricity whatsoever.

Gillis and Black filed an application to connect their home back in 2019. But when the coronavirus pandemic started ravaging the tribe and everything besides essential services was shut down on the reservation, it further stalled the process.

Their wait highlights the persistent challenges in electrifying every Navajo home, even with recent injections of federal money for tribal infrastructure and services and as extreme heat in the Southwest intensified by climate change adds to the urgency.

______



EDITOR’S NOTE: This is part of a series of on how tribes and Indigenous communities are coping with and combating climate change.

______

“We are a part of America that a lot of the time feels kind of left out,” said Vircynthia Charley, district manager at the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority, a non-for-profit utility that provides electric, water, wastewater, natural gas and solar energy services.

For years, the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority has worked to get more Navajo homes connected to the grid faster. Under a program called Light Up Navajo, which uses a mix of private and public funding, outside utilities from across the U.S. send electric crews to help connect homes and extend power lines.

But installing power on the reservation roughly the size of West Virginia is time-consuming and expensive due to its rugged geography and the vast distances between homes. Drilling for power poles there can take several hours because of underground rock deposits while some homes near Monument Valley must have power lines installed underground to meet strict regulations around development in the area.

About 32% of Navajo homes still have no electricity. Connecting the remaining 10,400 homes on the reservation would cost $416 million, said Deenise Becenti, government and public affairs manager at the utility.

This year, Light Up Navajo connected 170 more families to the grid. Since the program started in 2019, 882 Navajo families have had their homes electrified. If the program stays funded, Becenti said it could take another 26 years to connect every home on the reservation.

Those that get connected immediately reap the benefits.

Until this month, Black and Gillis' solar panels that the utility installed a few years ago would last about two to three days before their battery drained in cloudy weather. It would take another two days to recharge.

“You had to really watch the watts and whatever you’re using on a cloudy day,” Gillis said.

Then a volunteer power crew from Colorado helped install 14 power poles while the tribal utility authority drilled holes six feet deep in which the poles would sit. The crew then ran a wire about a mile down a red sand road from the main power line to the couple's home.

“The lights are brighter,” Black remarked after her home was connected.

In recent years, significantly more federal money has been allocated for tribes to improve infrastructure on reservations, including $32 billion from the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 — of which Navajo Nation received $112 million for electric connections. The Navajo tribal utility also received $17 million through the Biden administration's climate law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, to connect families to the electric grid. But it can be slow to see the effects of that money on the ground due to bureaucracy and logistics.

Next spring, the tribal utility authority hopes to connect another 150 homes, including the home of Priscilla and Leo Dan.

For the couple, having grid electricity at their home near Navajo Mountain in Arizona would end a nearly 12 year wait. They currently live in a recreational vehicle elsewhere closer to their jobs, but have worked on their home on the reservation for years. With power there, they could spend more time where Priscilla grew up and where her dad still lives.

It would make life simpler, Priscilla said. “Because otherwise, everything, it seems like, takes twice as long to do.”



___

Naishadham reported from Washington.

___

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.





Robert Black, left, with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority, supervises as a volunteer crew lifts a power line pole, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. 
(AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)

A crew with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority installs power poles for a home, at top right, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah.
 (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)

A crew lifts a power line pole during construction at a home, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. 
(AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)

Liam Gillis, 7, holds one of his chickens, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, at his home on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Lorraine Black, left and Ricky Gillis, right, pose for a portrait with their grandson, Liam Gillis, 7, outside their home, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

A volunteer pets a dog before starting power line construction for a home, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

A crew with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority installs power poles, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ryan Smith, left, a foreman with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority, checks the depth of a power pole during construction, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Robert Black, a project leader with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority, relaxes in a truck during a lunch break while installing power line poles at a home, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ricky Gillis, right, drives his grandson, Liam, 7, left, back to their home after picking him up from the school bus stop, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ricky Gillis collects water for use in a evaporative air cooling unit, at left, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, at his home on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Liam Gillis, 7, corrals his chickens, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at his home on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ricky Gillis looks at the sunset, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at his home on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Liam Gillis, 7, relaxes after school with his grandfather, Ricky, top left, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, at their home on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Lorraine Black sits inside her kitchen, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Lorraine Black, left, along with her husband, Ricky Gillis, center, and grandson, Liam Gillis, 7, walk outside their home, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

The sun sets, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, near Monument Valley on the Navajo Nation in Halchita, Utah. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)ASSOCIATED PRESS

 Experts uncover stunning side effects of solar farms: 'Introducing structural complexity into the environment'

Jeremiah Budin
Sat, October 26, 2024 


The benefits of switching from dirty, polluting energy sources like gas and oil to clean, renewable energy sources like wind and solar are clear — but according to a new guide compiled by several Australian groups, clean energy projects can also have the added benefit of increasing biodiversity if they are managed correctly, Energy Source & Distribution reported.

While solar farms have occasionally gotten a bad rap for harming habitats and driving out wildlife, that does not necessarily have to be one of their impacts, according to the Building Better Biodiversity on Solar Farms Guide, authored by Australia's Community Power Agency regional coordinator Heidi McElnea, Stringybark Ecological founder David Carr, and University of New England professor Dr. Eric Nordberg.

"Similar to artificial reefs in aquatic ecosystems, solar farms can serve as hubs for biodiversity enhancement, introducing structural complexity into the environment and providing crucial shelter and habitat for various species," Dr. Nordberg explained.

As the guide laid out, steps that solar farm developers and operators can take to protect and enhance biodiversity include taking multi-use considerations into account — for example, exploring benefits that the solar panels can provide to various species when it comes to facilitating grazing and pollinator habitats.

This theory has already been borne out elsewhere. In a study conducted on two solar farms in Minnesota, researchers found that insect populations had tripled over five years at the two sites, with native bee populations increasing twentyfold.

The Australian guide also recommended that solar farms avoid areas of high biodiversity, riparian areas, or known travel corridors. Whenever possible, the guide recommended replacing critical refugia that were removed during construction, such as nest hollows, logs, and rock piles.
Watch now: IKEA wants to pay you for your old furniture
BACKGROUND

A year of attacks by Myanmar's resistance has pushed the military regime close to the brink

DAVID RISING
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024

In this photo provided by Mandalay People's Defence, members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, one of the ethnic armed forces in the Brotherhood Alliance, and Mandalay People's Defence Force pose for a photograph in front of the captured building of the Myanmar's War Veterans' Organisation in Nawnghkio township in Shan state, Myanmar, on June 26, 2024. (Mandalay People's Defence Force via AP)


In this photo provided by Mandalay People's Defence Force, its members pose for a photograph in front of the gate of the captured army battalion in Mogok township in Mandalay region, Myanmar, on July 25, 2024. (Mandalay People's Defence Force via 

BANGKOK (AP) — Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime's military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.

The military's control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.

“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.

“To us it doesn't look like there's any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it's lost.”

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar's ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.

The army's takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People's Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.



Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.

Myanmar's military has been pushed back to the country's center

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military's Northeast Command.

“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military's network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.

“And then, once the military's artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it's too early to write it off.

The military has been weakened, but not defeated

The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar's second largest city, in the center of the country.

And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army's Lway Yay Oo.

“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.

“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an e-mailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”

Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes

As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations' Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.

“It doesn't seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”

Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the U.N.

At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.

“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians," he said in an interview.

In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw's operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.

“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”

Success brings new tensions between resistance groups

As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.

In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.

“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”

At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.

Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”

Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China's envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn't involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.

There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.

“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.

“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that's apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”

Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.

“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.
Japan's ruling party loses its majority in blow to new PM

Shaimaa Khalil and Kelly Ng - BBC News in Tokyo and Singapore
Mon, October 28, 2024 

The election was called by the LDP’s new leader Shigeru Ishiba before he had been officially sworn in as prime minister [Getty Images]

The coalition led by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority in parliament, its worst result in over a decade.

The LDP and its much smaller coalition partner Komeito, have taken 215 seats together, falling short of the 233-seat majority needed to govern. The party's new leader Shigeru Ishiba said there are no plans to expand the coalition at this stage.

Ishiba, who called the election just days before he was sworn in as prime minister, has vowed to stay in office despite the LDP's loss of parliamentary majority.

In a speech on Monday, he said the party has received "severe judgement", adding they would "humbly" accept this.

"Voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly accept this result," Ishiba told national broadcaster NHK.

"The Japanese people expressed their strong desire for the LDP to do some reflection and become a party that acts in line with the people's will," he said.

Ahead of the election, Japanese media had reported that if the LDP loses its parliamentary majority, Ishiba could quit to take responsibility, which would make him Japan's shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.

This is the first time the LDP has lost its parliamentary majority since 2009. Since its founding in 1955, the party has ruled the country almost continuously.

The result comes after a tumultuous few years for the LDP which saw a “cascade” of scandals, widespread voter apathy and record-low approval ratings.

The party had seen approval ratings of below 20% earlier in the year, in the wake of a political fundraising corruption scandal.

Ishiba on Monday pledged to reform "enact fundamental reform regarding the issue of money and politics".

"We need to answer to the people’s criticism. That is how I will take responsibility for the loss of the election," he said.

He also promised to revitalise rural Japan and tackle inflation.

Meanwhile, largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), won 148 seats at around 02:00 JST (17:00 GMT), according to NHK.

Yet opposition parties have failed to unite, or convince voters they are a viable option to govern.

The CDP, which is the main opposition party, had an approval rating of just 6.6% before parliament was dissolved.

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda on Monday said he plans to work with other parties to oust the incumbents.

“It is so hard to make decisions to choose parties, I think people are losing interest,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a long-time LDP supporter who works in the care-home sector, told the BBC ahead of polls opening.

The LDP, she said, has its problems with alleged corruption, “but the opposition also does not stand out at all”.

“They sure complain a lot, but it’s not at all clear on what they want to do,” the 66-year-old said.

Early on Monday, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index was up by around 1.5%, while the yen fell against the US dollar.

For all the apathy, politics in Japan has been moving at a fast pace in recent months.

Ishiba took over as prime minister after being voted in by the LDP following his predecessor Fumio Kishida - who had been in the role since 2021 – making a surprise decision to step down in August.

The move to call the election came at a time when the LDP is desperate to restore its tarnished image among the public. Ishiba - a long-time politician who previously served as defence minister - has described it as the “people’s verdict”.

A series of scandals has tarnished the party’s reputation. Chief among them is the party’s relationship with the controversial Unification Church - described by critics as a “cult” - and the level of influence it had on lawmakers.

Then came the revelations of the political funding corruption scandal. Japan’s prosecutors have been investigating dozens of LDP lawmakers accused of pocketing proceeds from political fundraising events. Those allegations - running into the millions of dollars - led to the dissolution of powerful factions, the backbone of its internal party politics.

“What a wretched state the ruling party is in,” said Michiko Hamada, who had travelled to Urawa station, on the outskirts of Tokyo, for an opposition campaign rally.

“That is what I feel most. It is tax evasion and it’s unforgivable.”


[Reuters]

It strikes her as particularly egregious at a time when people in Japan are struggling with high prices. Wages have not changed for three decades – dubbed “the lost 30 years” – but prices have risen at the fastest rate in nearly half a century in the last two years.

This month saw more price hikes on thousands of food products, as well as other day-to-day provisions like mail, pharmaceuticals, electricity and gas.

“I pay 10,000 yen or 20,000 yen ($65 - $130; £50 - £100) more for the food per month (than I used to),” Ms Hamada said.

“And I’m not buying the things I used to buy. I am trying to save up but it still costs more. Things like fruit are very expensive.”

She is not the only one concerned with high prices.

Pensioner Chie Shimizu says she now must work part-time to make ends meet.

“Our hourly wage has gone up a bit but it does not match the prices,” she told the BBC as she picked up some food from a stand at Urawa station.

“I come to places like this to find something cheaper and good because everything in regular shops is expensive.”

Additional reporting by Chika Nakayama


Japan plunged into political uncertainty after voters deliver dramatic defeat to longtime ruling party

Helen Regan and Yumi Asada, CNN
Mon, October 28, 2024 

Japanese voters delivered a stinging rebuke to the country’s longtime ruling party in elections Sunday, plunging the world’s fourth largest economy into a rare period of political uncertainty.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, has lost its parliamentary majority in the powerful lower house for the first time in 15 years.

Public anger and distrust in the government had been growing over rising living costs, inflation and a massive political funding scandal at the heart of the LDP, with voters voicing their discontent at the ballot box.

The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured just 215 of the House of Representatives’ 465 seats, short of the 233 needed to reach a majority, according to public broadcaster NHK.

The result is a major blow to freshly minted Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose gamble to call a snap election to bolster his position after taking office only this month dramatically backfired.

Ishiba said Monday that voters had delivered an “extremely harsh judgement” his party must take “seriously and solemnly,” but also indicated he would not step down as prime minister.

“I myself will also go back to the start and promote severe internal reforms within the party and further drastic reforms regarding the political situation,” he said.

Ishiba said the party did not have a coalition in mind to put forward to govern but it will begin by “discussing each of the party’s policies.”

Elections for Japan’s lower house are usually a foregone conclusion, with the conservative LDP dominating the country’s post-World War II political scene.

Now, it’s unclear who will govern Japan as Ishiba, a former defense minister and political veteran, may struggle to form a government.

Ahead of the elections, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito had a stable majority of 279 seats while the LDP alone had 247. On Sunday, the LDP won just 191 seats – its worst result since 2009, when the party suffered its biggest defeat and was forced to hand control to an opposition party.

To remain in power, the LDP could try and bring other parties into its coalition or rule via a minority government, with both options putting Ishiba’s position as prime minister in jeopardy.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) won 148 seats, a significant increase from 98. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said in a press conference Sunday, “Our goal was to break the ruling party’s majority, and we achieved it, which is a great accomplishment.”


Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks to the media at the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters. - Takashi Aoyama/Pool/REUTERS


Fresh setback

Before the election, the LDP faced falling approval ratings and public discontent over one of the country’s biggest political scandals in decades. Families and households are facing increased financial burdens, which have been exacerbated by the weak yen, a sluggish economy and high inflation.

The funding scandal involved millions of dollars in undocumented political funds, with some factions in the party accused of paying lawmakers with the proceeds of fundraising sales as kickbacks, or failing to properly declare their income.

Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tried to contain the damage by replacing several cabinet ministers and dissolving LDP factions, essentially coalitions within the party. But he faced calls to resign and announced in August that he would not run for a second term.

Ishiba reportedly said he would not officially endorse some party lawmakers caught up in the scandal, but they were allowed to run as independents.

The Prime Minister has also appeared to backtrack on a number of positions since becoming LDP president. He had supported legislation that could allow married women to keep their maiden names, but later said it called for “further discussion,” according to Kyodo News.

As defense minister, Ishiba was strong on deterrence as a security issue. Before the election, he proposed an Asian version of the NATO security bloc, an idea he has apparently dropped after it was rebuffed by the US.

Ishiba has also pledged financial help to low-income households, a higher minimum wage, and regional revitalization, according to Reuters. He promised a “full exit” from Japan’s high inflation rates, vowing to achieve “growth in real wages.”

Japan’s elections come just over a week before the United States votes for a new President. Ishiba has made strengthening Japan’s relations with the US a priority and seeks deeper ties with allies amid growing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and belligerent North Korea.

Partnership with Japan has long been central to US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, and Ishiba’s predecessor Kishida this year expanded Japan’s defense cooperation with its key ally. Ishiba has called for a more balanced relationship, including having greater oversight of US military bases in Japan, Reuters reported.

On Monday, Ishiba told reporters Japan “will strengthen our ties with the United States even more” and maintain the “extremely good Japan-US relationship and work to strengthen the free and open international order.”
In a political culture that prizes conformity, Ishiba has long been something of an outlier, willing to criticize and go against his own party. That willingness to speak out has made him powerful enemies within the LDP but endeared him to more grassroots members and the public.

Now, the jockeying for power will kick off with all parties seeking alliances to secure enough seats to form a government.

Ishiba and the LDP’s political future is uncertain, and one of the world’s most important economies faces a period of instability until upper house elections next summer.

This story has been updated with additional information.


Japan’s politics gets a rare dose of upheaval after snap election

Shaimaa Khalil - BBC  Tokyo correspondent
Sun, October 27, 2024 

PM Shigeru Ishiba's governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority [Getty Images]
Japanese elections are normally steady and boring affairs - but this snap election was neither.

The dramatic vote follows a political funding corruption scandal that was revealed last year, which implicated senior lawmakers and cabinet members from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its image and angering the public.

It was the perfect storm - a scandal that saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated over pocketing millions of dollars in proceeds from political fundraisers, while households struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

In the end, a furious and tired electorate sent a strong message in Sunday's vote, punishing the LDP at the ballot box. And it was a stunning blow: a party which had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single-party majority in the powerful lower house.

But there was no clear winner either. A fractured opposition failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public was looking for one.

Although severely bruised, the LDP still won more seats - 191 - than the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final tally stands at 148 seats.

“This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But it’s not one where they want to bring about a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.

And yet the old leadership's fate is unclear. The LDP's governing coalition has fallen short of the halfway mark - 233 seats in the 465-member Diet - after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including that of its chief.

Even with Komeito's 24 seats, the LDP will be unable to muster a majority.

It's a "severe judgment", said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister only early this month after winning a tight party leadership race.

Voters had "expressed their strong desire for the LDP to reflect and become a party that will act in line with the people's will", he said on Sunday, as results emerged.

Japan's ageing population is one of the biggest challenges for the next government [Getty Images]

The hope was that Ishiba as leader could save the LDP at the ballot - rising discontent and plummetting ratings had forced out the last PM, Fumio Kishida.

Still, Ishiba took a gamble when he announced a snap election less than a month ago - and it has backfired.

Both he and his party underestimated the extent of public anger and, crucially, their willingness to act on it.

To stay in power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with other parties it fought in the election. And it will do so from a position of significant weakness because it must negotiate and make concessions to survive.

It is hard to overstate how rare this is - the LDP has always enjoyed a safe and steady place in Japanese politics.

And it has a strong track record of governance – when the opposition did take over in 1993 and 2009, it ended badly.

Japan's ruling party loses its majority in blow to new PM

Japan’s embattled PM had a cruel summer – it ends with his exit

Since the LDP came back to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election, almost uncontested. There has long been resignation about the status quo, and the opposition remains unconvincing to the Japanese people.

“I think we [the Japanese] are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.

“It’s very hard for us to challenge and make a change. And when the ruling party changed once [and the opposition took over], nothing actually changed in the end, that’s why we tend to stay conservative."

Ms Fujisaki said that she had inititially been unsure who to vote for, especially with the fundraising scandal hanging over the LDP. But given that she had always voted for them, she said she was probably going to do the same this time too.

Although the main opposition party - the CDP - made significant gains, observers say these results are less about voters endorsing the opposition than about their ire with the LDP.

Despite voters wanting to hold their politicians accountable, “in [their] minds... there really is no-one else" they trust to lead the country, Mr Hall said.

What that leaves Japan with is a weakened LDP and a splintered opposition.

The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable US ally in an increasingly tense Asia Pacific. So the uncertainty is concerning not just for its own people, but also its neighbours and allies.

At home, a shaky coalition will not help with turning the economy around, raising wages and improving welfare for a rapidly ageing population.


Japan election results plunge country into political crisis as ruling coalition loses majority

Adam Withnall
Sun, October 27, 2024

Prime minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts to the election results in a press conference at LDP party headquarters (JIJI PRESS/AFP via Getty Images)

Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in a punishing set of results from Sunday’s general election, throwing the country into the kind of political instability not seen for decades.

With the final constituency accounted for, prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito had just 215 seats, down from 279 and well short of the 233 needed to form a government.

It is the worst result for the LDP – which has ruled Japan for 65 of the past 69 years – since 2009, when it briefly fell out of power.



A chastened-looking Mr Ishiba told TV Tokyo it was a “very tough” election for the party, which had its reputation badly damaged by a corruption scandal involving money siphoned off from party fund-raising events.

Of 46 candidates who admitted to financial reporting errors and either had the whip withdrawn or partially lost the party’s backing, only 18 were able to retain their seats. Analysts say those who won as independents may be brought back into the LDP fold now that they have been approved by the voters.


People vote during the general election at a polling station in Tokyo on Sunday (EPA)

The result shows the “severe” level of public distrust in the LDP as a result of the slush fund scandal, Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, told The Independent.

“Unless Ishiba and the LDP seriously implement political reform, they might not be able to recover people’s support,” he said.

Some of the biggest names in the ruling coalition failed to win seats, including Komeito’s leader Keiichi Ishii. “We have no choice but to rebuild the party,” after Mr Ishii’s defeat, a party spokesperson told reporters.


File: Shigeru Ishiba and Keiichi Ishii (left) of the Komeito Party are seen during an election campaign event in Soka (AP)

The opposition party that gained the most from the collapse in LDP support was the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which outperformed expectations to take 148 seats, up from 98 at the last election.

Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda celebrated the results at a press conference, telling the media: “We accomplished our goal of preventing the ruling coalition from a majority, which was a major achievement.”

Yet while opposition parties collectively won enough seats to form a majority, a grand coalition between them is seen as unlikely given they span the full political spectrum and have drastically opposed views on key matters from fiscal and defence policy to the use of nuclear energy.

Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda reacts to the Constitutional Democratic Party’s strong exit poll results on Sunday evening (EPA)

With its 191 seats the LDP remains the single largest party and could still cobble together a government by adding a third coalition partner.

Mr Ishiba declined to comment on the shape of power-sharing talks until the full results are formally declared, but he is most likely to turn first to either the centrist Democratic Party for the People or the conservative Japan Innovation Party. They took 28 and 38 seats respectively.

Both parties have previously ruled out a formal coalition with the LDP, however, meaning at best they are likely to only join a partial coalition where the government would have to approach them for their backing on legislation on a case-by-case basis.

Such a fragile government will inevitably leave Mr Ishiba vulnerable to a leadership challenge from within his own party. Waiting in the wings is Sanae Takaichi, the preferred choice from the ultra-conservative faction of the LDP who Mr Ishiba, a moderate, defeated in last month’s leadership election.


Japan’s then-economic security minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference in September 2024 to announce her candidacy for the party leadership (AP)

Mr Ishiba was seen as having decent approval ratings after that victory and called the snap election in order to try and capitalise on his honeymoon period. Yet his popularity tanked as he U-turned on a number of policies – including creating an Asian version of Nato, support for same-sex marriage and the right for married individuals to choose to keep different surnames – after entering office.

Sunday’s election was held amid an atmosphere of deep voter apathy in Japan, with little fanfare or excitement seen on the streets of Tokyo. Voters described being put off the LDP by the slush fund scandal yet reluctant to vote for the opposition given their lack of experience running the world’s fourth-largest economy.

This sentiment was borne out by the turnout figures, down almost two percentage points to 53.84 per cent as of the preliminary results at 9am on Monday morning. That’s the third-lowest turnout in Japan’s post-war history, and one of the worst among any developed nation.

Japan's ruling coalition loses majority, election outcome in balance

Sakura Murakami, John Geddie and Tim Kelly
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 at 6:02 PM MDT
4 min read


Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways


By Sakura Murakami, John Geddie and Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing at Sunday's national election, raising uncertainty over the make-up of the next government and the outlook for the world's fourth-largest economy.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, public broadcaster NHK reported.

That was down from the 279 seats they held previously and marked the coalition's worst election result since it briefly lost power in 2009.

"This election has been very tough for us," a sombre-looking Ishiba told TV Tokyo.

Komeito's Keiichi Ishii, who took over as that party's new leader last month, lost in his district.

The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), had 148 seats, up from 98 previously, as voters punished Ishiba's party over a funding scandal and inflation.

The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability as the country faces economic headwinds and a tense security situation in East Asia.

"This is not the end, but the beginning," CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda told a press conference, adding that his party would work with other opposition parties to aim for a change of government.

Ishiba earlier in the night said he would wait until the final results before considering potential coalitions or other power-sharing deals.

The prime minister had called the snap poll immediately after being elected to head the party last month, hoping to win a public mandate for his premiership. His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, quit after his support fell due to anger over a cost of living crunch and the scandal involving unrecorded donations to lawmakers.

The election also took place nine days before voters in the United States - Japan's closest ally - head to the polls in another unpredictable ballot.

POLITICAL DEALS, MARKET JITTERS

The yen fell to a three-month low and Japanese stocks are expected to decline while longer-dated government bond yields are seen rising as investors react to the uncertainty.

"The voters' judgment on the ruling bloc was harsher than expected," said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

"Uncertainty over the administration's continuity has increased, and the stock market is likely to react tomorrow with a sell-off, especially among foreign investors."

The LDP has held an outright majority since it returned to power in 2012 after a brief spell of opposition rule. It also lost power briefly in 1993, when a coalition of seven opposition parties formed a government that lasted less than a year.

Smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party, could now prove key to forming a government.

The DPP won 28 seats and the Japan Innovation Party 38 seats, according to NHK. But both propose policies at odds with the LDP line.

DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki has not ruled out some cooperation with the LDP-led coalition, but Innovation Party head Nobuyuki Baba has rejected the idea.

The DPP calls for halving Japan's 10% sales tax until real wages rise, a policy not endorsed by the LDP, while the Innovation Party has pledged tougher donation rules to clean up politics.

"The DPP is focused on ultimately making the country better and ensuring financial resources are allocated more appropriately, so that's why I decided to vote for them," Keisuke Yoshitomi, a 39-year-old office worker, said after casting his vote at a polling station in Tokyo.

Political wrangling could also be a headache for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) if Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates when the central bank wants to gradually raise them.

The Innovation Party opposes further increases in interest rates, and the DPP leader has said the BOJ may have been hasty in raising rates, while the central bank wants to gradually wean the Japan off decades of massive monetary stimulus.

"With a more fluid political landscape, pushing through economic policies that include raising taxes, such as to fund defence spending, will become much harder," said Masafumi Fujihara, associate professor of politics at Yamanashi University.

"Without a strong government, it would be more difficult for the BOJ to raise rates and keep the weak yen under control."



When Japan's predictable politics go awry

Reuters
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 

Japan holds general election


TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ruling coalition partner lost their majority in a general election on Sunday, throwing the make-up of the next government into flux.

The LDP has governed for almost all of Japan's postwar period, but here are examples of times it has lost power or needed to rely on other parties.

1983

Despite opinion polls that it would win comfortably, the LDP fell short of a majority in what was then the lowest postwar voter turnout. To stay in power, it entered a coalition with the New Liberal Club, a now-defunct party formed as a breakaway from the LDP in 1976.



In the following election, in 1986, current premier Shigeru Ishiba first entered parliament after a brief banking career.

1993

Facing a backlash over corruption scandals, the LDP again fell short of majority. Although it won the most seats, seven opposition parties - including two that had broken away from the LDP ahead of the vote - formed a coalition and kicked the LDP out of power for the first time since its 1955 formation.

Infighting led to successive leadership changes, and the coalition collapsed in less than a year.

2000

Six months before the election had to be held, LDP Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi suffered a stroke and later died. He was succeeded by Yoshiro Mori, a gaffe-prone figure who eroded the party's popularity ahead of the vote.

In the first election since the LDP tied up with the newly formed Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist lay group, it relied on Komeito's seats to stay in power. The two parties have ruled since, apart from a brief period when they lost power in 2009.

2009

The Democratic Party ousted the coalition in a landslide during the turmoil of the global financial crisis.

But the Democrats' perceived mishandling of the massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami that crippled the Fukushima nuclear plant and other mishaps allowed the LDP to regain control in the following 2012 election.

The Democrats dissolved in 2016, while the rump of the party eventually became the current main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and a smaller group forming the Democratic Party for the People.

(Reporting by John Geddie and Sakura Murakami; Editing by William Mallard and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

The Japanese parties that may jockey for power after election

Tim Kelly
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 at 8:05 PM MDT
3 min read



Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, speaks at a campaign for the upcoming general election in Tokyo
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By Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition looks set to lose its parliamentary majority, exit polls from Sunday's general election suggest, meaning a possible scramble by parties to form a government.

Following are the main players in any post-election jockeying for power:

LDP

Having ruled for almost all of Japan's postwar period, Ishiba's conservative LDP has struggled with voters angry about a months-long political funding scandal.



The party promised to clean up its finances ahead of the election but allowed most of more than 40 lawmakers who failed to record political donations to stand for the party.

The party of Ishiba, who called the election immediately after Fumio Kishida resigned to take responsibility for the scandal, also faces public dissatisfaction over rising prices.

The LDP, which entered the election with 247 seats, is forecast to fall to between 153 and 219 seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority in the lower house.

KOMEITO

The LDP's longtime coalition partner has helped it keep control of parliament for most of the past two decades, apart from three years when the parties were out of power from 2009.



Affiliated with Japan's largest lay-Buddhist organisation, Sokka Gakkai, Komeito supports the LDP during campaigning, its vast network providing election volunteers.

In return for its support, Komeito gets the Land Transport and Infrastructure post in the cabinet and is consulted on policy.

Komeito has been less willing than the LDP to step back from the pacifism that has marked Japan since its World War Two loss, including decisions to double military spending, arm the country with longer-range weapons and end rules that limit military exports.

The party, which is defending 32 seats, may have won as many as 35 seats, polls suggest.



CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRATS

Japan's largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the rump of the party that ousted the LDP in 2009, fought this campaign by attacking the LDP over its funding scandal and by promising measures to tackle inflation.

Yoshihiko Noda, prime minister for a year before the LDP returned to power in 2012, became leader of the centre-left party in September.

If the LDP-Komeito coalition cannot cobble together a majority, the CDPJ could try to form a government with other opposition parties.

The party is set to double its 98 seats, NHK forecast.

JAPAN INNOVATION PARTY



The third-largest party in the lower house before the election with 44 seats, the right-wing group led by Donald Trump admirer Nobuyuki Baba is aligned with the LDP on security policy, including increased defence spending and a proposal to revise the country's war-renouncing constitution.

In the campaign Baba did not rule out the possibility of working with the LDP in a post-election administration.

Originating in the industrial western city of Osaka, the Innovation Party advocates for smaller government and in the lower house election campaign pledged to clean up politics with stricter rules on donations, as well as welfare and education reforms.

The party won as many as 45 seats, NHK forecast.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR THE PEOPLE

Despite coming into the election with just seven seats, the DPP might emerge as a kingmaker.

Formed in 2020 by former Democratic Party lawmakers who declined to join the CDPJ, it advocates cutting Japan's sales tax and income taxes, and health insurance contributions.

Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki, a former finance ministry bureaucrat, was a senior party during the Democrat-led government from 2009. Before this election, he said he would not go into a coalition with the LDP.

The DPP expanded to as many as 33 seats, NHK forecast.

(Reporting by Tim Kelly; Editing by William Mallard and David Evans)