Friday, November 01, 2024

 INDIA

Arms Supply to Israel: SC Judgement Misses ‘Human’ Element


Aman Kumar 



Has the Supreme Court of India missed a golden opportunity to hold the Union government to account for its international law obligations and protect India from international charges of abetment of genocide?

The importance of adhering to international law, agreements and understandings is not a theoretical debate… The advantage of being perceived as a rule-abiding and responsible player cannot be underestimated.”

— Shri S. Jaishankar, external affairs minister of India in The India Way (2020)

In 2019, M.K. Ranjitsinh Jhala, the renowned wildlife conservationist, joined hands with other conservationists to file a writ petition before the Supreme Court of India (SC) against the government of India regarding the protection of the great Indian bustard.

They argued that the overhead transmission lines used for the supply of electricity generated through wind and solar energy resulted in the loss of the population of the great Indian bustard in Gujarat and Rajasthan.

The court ruled in favour of the government (and the companies involved in those projects) by clothing its argument in international law obligations of India. Some aspects of the petition continue to be sub judice.

The judges took a different route to achieve the end goal— ensuring that the commercial interest of the government and corporations is not hindered.

Paragraph 58 from that decision deserves more discussion. In that paragraph, the Supreme Court talked about situations where India has committed to something under international law but has not yet made domestic laws in that regard.

It noted that: “India’s international obligations and commitments in the present case have not been enacted in domestic law. Regardless, the court must be alive to these obligations while adjudicating writ petitions that seek reliefs that may hinder these obligations from being fulfilled or otherwise interfere with India’s international commitments as well as the right to be free from the adverse effects of climate change.”

What the court essentially said was that in case of the absence of domestication of India’s international law obligations, if a petition requests something that might hinder the performance of such obligations, the court will deny it.

This judgment was authored by the Chief Justice of India (CJI) Dr D.Y. Chandrachud, and was written on behalf of his colleagues on the Bench— Justices J.B. Pardiwala and Manoj Misra.

It is the same trio of judges that has now rejected another writ petition seeking directions for the Indian government “to cancel any existing licences and halt the grant of new licences or permissions, to various companies in India, for export of arms and other military equipment to Israel, during Israel’s war in Gaza”.

In this case, the judges took a different route to achieve the end goal— ensuring that the commercial interest of the government and corporations is not hindered, much like the case referred to above.

Whether it is a coincidence that these three judges were on the Bench or are they ones dealing with matters of ‘international law’ at India’s Supreme Court is not clear. The judges’ roster does not include ‘international law’ as a subject matter for the CJI, and the subject matters of the other two judges are not even listed. Curiously, ‘international law’ is not a subject matter for any of the judges mentioned in the roster.

What was the case?

On August 17, 2024, a group of former civil servants, scholars, activists and experts in fields such as international relations, human rights and policy analysis filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court demanding the cancellation of licences to companies for exporting arms to Israel. Their arguments rested on a perceived violation of India’s international law obligation.

The petition was not novel. Similar arguments have already been made, successful and unsuccessfully, before international courts and domestic courts of other countries.

The crux of all the arguments is this— Israel’s actions in Gaza, since October 2023, might amount to a violation of international law, particularly of international humanitarian law, international criminal law and international human rights law.

Curiously, ‘international law’ is not a subject matter for any of the judges mentioned in the roster.

As such, any country which contributes weapons to Israel might be an accomplice. The petitioner claimed that supplying weapons to Israel amounts to a violation of India’s obligations under international law coupled with Articles 14 and 21 read with Article 51(c) of the Constitution of India.

Erroneous interpretation of the Constitution

The petition of more than 400 pages was dismissed in a four-page-judgment, the author of which is not mentioned. The judgment found the petition unmaintainable because of Article 73 of the Constitution.

It notes that “the authority and jurisdiction in relation to the conduct of foreign affairs is vested with the Union government under Article 73 of the Constitution”.

It further refers to Article 253 to say that only the Parliament has the power to make laws for implementing any treaty. The judgment notes that these two Articles create a ‘fundamental objection’ to the maintainability of the petition.

This piece argues that the court erred in concluding so. This is because Article 73 is not about ‘foreign affairs’. The term does not even appear in the Article. In fact, it is not even a legal term, but rather a term of international relations or diplomacy.

Article 73, for the purpose of the judgment and this piece, states that the “Executive” power of the Union shall extend to the “exercise of such rights, authority and jurisdiction as are exercisable by the government of India by virtue of any treaty on the agreement”.

While this Article is relevant to the discussion of the incorporation of international law in India’s domestic legal framework, it is not clear how it is relevant to the non-maintainability of the present case.

Further, after quoting Article 253, the court again erroneously interprets it by noting that “(t)here is a presumption that international law is a part and parcel of the law of the nations unless the application of a principle of international law is excluded expressly or by necessary implication by the competent legislature”.

This is erroneous because the said Article does not provide any room for exception. Its wording is clear— any treaty to which India is a party can only be implemented in India once the Parliament has made a law in that regard.

Sadly, post-Independence, the judges of the Supreme Court of India continued following the British way of incorporation of international law, i.e., what is not opposed is accepted. The court is yet to be decolonised in this regard. Many judgments later, its erroneous interpretation has now become the norm, with support from academicians.

On arms’ supply

After noting Articles 73 and 253 as the “fundamental objections” to the maintainability of the petition, the judgment pivots towards what it calls “the basic issue”.

This issue is “whether the court, under Article 32, can issue a writ to the Union government to cancel existing licences and halt the issuance of new licences for the export of arms and military equipment to Israel?”

It then lists out three reasons why the answer to the question, to quote from the judgment, “must be in the negative”.

These reasons are, firstly, that any grant of relief will be tantamount to adjudicating on Israel’s responsibility for its actions in Gaza; secondly, that any injunctive relief would result in violation of international agreements by the Indian companies; and finally, that action, if any, can be taken by the Union government. Let us unpack the reasons one by one.

Israel’s responsibility

The court’s argument that for it “to consider the grant of the reliefs as sought, it would inevitably become necessary to enter a finding in regard to the allegations which have been levelled by the petitioners against the State of Israel” is grossly wrong.

If nothing else, the court could have looked at the Internation Court of Justice (ICJ)’s decision in the Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa versus Israel), a copy of which was also included in the petition.

The petition of more than 400 pages was dismissed in a four-page-judgment, the author of which is not mentioned.

In that case, South Africa had requested the ICJ to order Israel, as an interim measure, to fulfil its obligations under the Genocide Convention to “prevent genocide” of Palestinian people in Gaza.

In its decision, the ICJ did not necessarily determine that Israel’s acts violated the Genocide Convention, as claimed by South Africa, but still ruled that Israel should prevent the commission of genocide in Gaza.

The current case before the Supreme Court was not even about the determination of Israel’s actions. Rather, it was about India’s actions. And yes, to say that India’s actions might amount to abetting international crimes means that international crimes are happening.

But the court could have assumed the likelihood of such crimes or should have referred to the plethora of evidence made available to it by the petitioners where international organisations have alleged that such crimes are being committed by Israel.

Instead, the court skirted its way around the question by deferring to the government, the same government whose actions it was supposed to judge. In Paragraph 9 of the judgment, it notes: “In taking an appropriate decision, the Government bears into account all relevant considerations including the commitments of the nation at the international level.”

This then raises the following questions: did the government assess Israel’s actions? And if after the assessment, the answer was that yes, Israel has violated international law, how did the government circumvent that conclusion while issuing licences?

However, if the answer was no, how does that fit in with the government’s stance taken at the United Nations during various resolutions regarding the conflict? The approach taken by the Supreme Court must be considered negative for more than one reason.

Firstly, now that the petition has been rejected, we do not know if the government actually did an assessment of Israel’s actions. What is more frustrating is that the judgment also does not note the government’s stance, it simply assumes that the government must have done an assessment.

Secondly, because the judgment keeps us in a position of ignorance— we do not know if the assessment, if any, is accurate. After all, the government has often been found lacking on questions of human rights.

Take the Genocide Convention, for example. India was one of the first countries to move a resolution at the UN for a convention on genocide. This was in 1946, even before the country was an independent nation. On India’s recommendation, voiced through M.C. Chagla, the resolution asked States to enact legislation for the prevention and punishment of genocide.

To date, there is no legislation on the Genocide Convention in India! When member of Parliament Avinash Pande asked about this situation in the Parliament in 2016, the Union home ministry replied: “By acceding to the (Genocide) Convention in 1959, India has recognised genocide as an international crime.

The principles embodied in the convention are part of general international law and therefore already part of the common law of India. The provisions of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), including the procedural law (Criminal Procedure Code or CrPC) provide effective penalties for persons guilty of crime of genocide.”

There is plenty wrong in this statement, which the author has highlighted elsewhere. For now, suffice it to say that not only does the word ‘genocide’ not figure in the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) and the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (or the IPC or CrPC), it does not figure in any Union criminal legislation of India.

On violation of international agreements by Indian companies

The court’s second reason for rejecting the petition was that the relief sought in the petition would result in a violation of international contracts and agreements entered into by Indian companies.

Here the court changed the very nature of the petition which was not about the responsibility of companies but of the State. It is the Union government that is issuing licences to supply weapons to Israel, specifically the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) and the Department of Defence Production (DDP), as per the petition.

The judgment refers to Article 253 to say that only the Parliament has the power to make laws for implementing any treaty.

Hence, as per international law, responsibility, if any, for violation of international law will be on India and not on the individual companies. The reason for this is in the Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (ARSIWA).

The assessment of India’s responsibility under ARSIWA will require another post. Here, let us limit the discussion to how India might be responsible for the supply of weapons by companies to Israel.

Article 16 of ARSIWA provides that a “State which aids or assists another State in the commission of an internationally wrongful act by the latter is internationally responsible for doing so” if (it) does so with “knowledge of the circumstances” of the internationally wrongful act; and if the act would be internationally wrongful if committed by itself. Let us unpack this.

The Article talks about a State aiding or assisting, while the petition mentions private companies (in addition to state-owned companies) supplying weapons. So why should the State be responsible for the acts of private companies? This is because private companies are not performing any function but functions that are generally performed by the State. Here, Article 5 of ARSIWA becomes relevant.

It states that: “The conduct of a person or entity which is not an organ of the State under Article 4 but which is empowered by the law of that State to exercise elements of the governmental authority shall be considered an act of the State under international law, provided the person or entity is acting in that capacity in the particular instance.”

This Article talks about a person or ‘entity’. The private companies mentioned in the petition are covered under the term ‘entity’. As the International Law Commission explains in its commentary to Article 5 of ARSIWA, ‘entity’ includes bodies that “may be empowered by the law of a State to exercise elements of governmental authority” and “is empowered by the law of the State to exercise functions of a public character normally exercised by State organs”.

The supply of weapons is one such example of a function of public character, and that is why it is controlled by government departments like the DGFT and DDP. Therefore, the conduct of private companies (entities) shall be considered an act of the State, i.e., of the government of India, and thus will be attributable to India for the purposes of Article 16 of ARSIWA.

The two conditions mentioned in Article 16 provide that while aiding another State (arguably Israel) in the commission of internationally wrongful acts, the aider (arguably India) should have the knowledge of the circumstances of the act and that if the act is committed by the aider independently, that too shall amount to an internationally wrongful act.

This requirement takes us to the points we discussed earlier about the assessment of Israel’s responsibility by the Indian government. Now, because the petition has been dismissed, we do not know if the government had the knowledge required under this Article. Also, an argument can be made that if India was doing what Israel is doing in Gaza, it would have amounted to a violation of international law.

Clean chit to government and ‘law–policy’ dichotomy

The third reason the court rejected the petition was that ‘the government knows better’. This is not an exaggeration because the case was against the Union government and the court gave it a clean chit saying that the government knew what it was doing.

Regarding suspension of licence, the court said that “[w]hether in a given case, any such action is warranted is a matter which has to be decided by the Union government bearing in mind economic, geopolitical and other interests of the nation in the conduct of international relations”.

Notice how legal considerations are totally absent in this sentence— economic and geopolitical considerations are mentioned, even international relations find a mention, but not international law.

Moreover, here again, the court misses the point. The question is not who can make such decisions— it is clear that only the Union government, being the representative of India, can make such decisions. The question rather was whether the decision taken after such considerations was right or wrong.

The biggest blunder the court made in this case was looking at the petition from the perspective of foreign affairs and foreign policy, and not from the lens of international law.

Sadly, post-Independence, the judges of the Supreme Court of India continued following the British way of incorporation of international law, i.e., what is not opposed is accepted.

Perhaps it is appropriate to refer to Ronald Dworkin here to understand the distinction between law (Dworkin refers to it as principle) and policy.

In The Model of Rules Dworkin writes: “I call a ‘policy’ that kind of standard that sets out a goal to be reached, generally an improvement in some economic, political or social feature of the community… I call a ‘principle’ a standard that is to be observed, not because it will advance or secure an economic, political, or social situation deemed desirable, but because it is a requirement of justice or fairness or some other dimension of morality.”

A lost opportunity?

The judgment reflects that the court has completely ceded international law space to the State, or is ignorant of international law. In either case, it shows a lack of appreciation of international legal rules by the court.

The court’s own history with corporate–human conflict should have reminded it of its obligations towards the latter. Its controversial treatment of the Bhopal gas tragedy, another corporate–human conflict from 40 years ago, should have served as a guide. Because of the court’s misadventures, the victims of that disaster are still looking for fair compensation.

Moreover, the court’s rejection of the petition is a lost opportunity. The petition was a perfect opportunity for the court to assess India’s role, complicit or otherwise, in the ongoing war.

The judgment reflects that the court has completely ceded international law space to the State, or is ignorant of international law.

Its decision leaves India susceptible to allegations of abetting genocide and being taken before the ICJ for the same. It is improbable but not impossible. On a similar issue— of supply of weapons to Israel— Nicaragua took Germany to the ICJ earlier this year.

This petition provided the court with the opportunity for a reality check. If the court had assessed the application in depth, it might have come out with a conclusion determining no liability for the government.

And if it had decided that by continuing to supply weapons to Israel, India is violating international law, that would have helped the government in halting the violation of international law.

Aman Kumar is a PhD candidate at the Australian National University, Canberra. 

Courtesy: The Leaflet

 INDIA

Odisha: The Harsh World of Soft Cotton in Kujasingh Village



Shubham Kumar 



Cotton farming (Bt cotton) to cater to the demand of Andhra Pradesh in this border village is impacting the health of tribal farmers as well as the soil.

Kujasingh is a village of backward tribals in coastal Gajapati district of Odisha. As part of work, one needed to check the library in the village school. It was a dilapidated building, consisting of eight rooms. In one room, there were 19 children, aged 10-12 years, sitting on the ground in an almost half-naked state. This writer tried talking to the children in Hindi but got back blank stares as they were not able to understand anything. They understood a bit of Oriya, but not Hindi. Still, when asked: “Do you people get books?”, the children shook their heads in unison.

The faces of many of those children bore some marks. When asked, their teacher (Jayanti), who was standing nearby, mumbled in a low voice, “Cotton is cultivated here. Adults have to bend down to pluck cotton, so it takes them a lot of time. It is also a bit of boring work. So, farmers deploy small children to do this work, as they are short and don’t have to bend down to pluck a lot of cotton. They get these marks on their faces while plucking cotton”.

Jayanti’s statement sounded illogical. Cotton is grown in other parts of the country and one had not heard of such a thing till date.

 When prodded further, Jayanti, said, “We are adivasis, should we look at our face or our stomachs? Actually, this is not a cotton land; we don’t even know how to grow cotton. The people of Andhra have ruined us by luring us with money”.

The teacher's words sounded puzzling. This writer left the classroom with a heavy heart, recalling how in childhood, cotton was known as “white gold”.

 While descending the stairs of that dilapidated school, one could see cotton wool floating around in the air. It was a thrilling sight.

 

‘Thighs Without Veins’

This is the living story of people sowing cotton seeds on a mountain. Gajapati is a tribal district, which was carved out of Ganjam district in 1992. The headquarters of this coastal district is at Paralakhemundi, on the Andhra Pradesh border. It used to be the parliamentary constituency of former Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections.

In Mahendragiri mountain in the district, there is a belief, as per the Mahabharata, that the Pandava brothers lived on this mountain during their exile. A river named Mahendratanaya flows from the chest of this mountain. This river marks the border of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

Kujasingh village, located in Gumma block of Gajapati district, has 40 houses, located in the lap of a mountain. The Joraswar tribal community lives in this village. There is forest above and fields below. The main food consumed by the villagers is water and rice. And along with it, there is hand-made liquor. The village also has a pet python, which villagers said keeps lying on the road.

 There are many hilly villages in these areas of Odisha where cotton is cultivated. Kujasingh is one of them. If one looks down the slope from Kujasingh, it looks like a land covered with white flowers. Seeing those cotton fields for the first time, one was reminded of a line from Kedarnath Singh's poem:

Yah jo aapki kamiz hai

Kisi ke kheton mein khila kapas ka phool hai

 (This shirt of yours is a cotton flower blooming in someone's field)

Recently, while conducting a survey for a government scheme, one visited this village. It was raining heavily that day. At the panchayat office, one by one, old women started coming. Almost all of them were limping. When asked, the medical officer sitting there said,

“Cotton is cultivated here. When the cotton is plucked, before selling it in bulk, the old women keep a few sacks for themselves. Throughout the year, they rub it on their thighs with their hands to make wicks for lamps used for worship. These are sold in abundance in the temples of Andhra Pradesh. These women have been doing this work for 20–25 years. Due to this, the veins of their thighs are damaged.”

 These women get Rs. 4 for making a packet of wicks, which is sold in the market for Rs.12-15, and in some places even for Rs.20. Although younger women have stopped doing this work, the older women continue doing it for survival.

 This was the second imprint of “white gold” that one saw on the bodies of people of the area.

 The Cotton Trap

Cotton entered like an 'angel' in some districts of south-western Odisha. In these districts -- Kalahandi, Rayagada, Gajapati, and some hilly areas of Koraput -- farmers planted cotton crops for the first time in the 1990s, leaving aside their traditional hill farming.

When asked where and how cotton first entered these areas, many villagers said they did not know how cotton reached them. One person said his father used to do cotton farming, so they also started doing it. An old farmer (Devvrat) sounded most convincing. A retired teacher, he also used to do farming. “It (cotton) came to us from Andhra Pradesh around 1990; there were many cloth factories in Andhra where cotton was needed. Gajapati is very close to Andhra, so its cultivation started here first,” said Devvrat.

After pausing for a while, he added, “Doing such farming destroys the land, and don't even ask about the diseases. The people of Andhra were clever; they ruined us by luring us with money”.

Things became a bit clearer now. Cotton has become a bone stuck in the throats for the people here. They are neither able to swallow it nor spit it out.

On a terraced cotton field, surrounded by mountains from all sides, one could see the crop being picked. A large number of children were seen working. This field belonged to Raghu, 46, the sarpanch of this tribal village.

When this writer asked Raghu (who as plucking the plants) in Hindi to explain how cotton farming was done, jokingly adding that it looked like a promising venture, he said, “Don't do cotton farming. The land gets spoiled”.

 The school teacher (Jayanti), who was standing nearby, told Raghu in Oriya that we had come to learn about cotton and he should tell us whatever he knew. After remain silent for a while, he said, "The kappa (cotton) crop came to us; before that, we used to cultivate mandia (millet), arhar (pulses), and rice. In the beginning, Bt (a type of GM (genetically modified) cotton) seeds were very rare. When someone used to go to Andhra Pradesh, he used to bring it. Later, it turned into a seed business. When I did cotton farming for the first time, I made a lot of profit. It did not require as much hard work as rice. But now everyone has started growing it here. Now there is no benefit. On the contrary, our debts are increasing one after the other.”

On being asked why they don’t stop cultivating it if there is no profit, Raghu tearfully said, “Now nothing will grow on this land except cotton”.

 “When we planted cotton, we did not know that it would make the field favourable only to itself. Traders from outside used to give us seeds and fertilisers. Last year, I planted pigeon pea, but it remained in the ground. This time, we have planted only cotton,” he explained.

Raghu would have told us some more things, but by then his daughter had brought food for him. He sat down have his food at the edge of the field. 

As we walk away, Jayanti asked, “Bhaina (brother in Oriya), why do you want to know about cotton? Will the government run any schemes?”

 With no proper answer, I asked, “Who buys this cotton?” “My uncle buys the cotton of the whole village,” I was told. I said, I want to meet him. At first Jayanti hesitated, then said “We will meet him on Sunday.”

Labour brokerage

 On Sunday, we reached Jayanti's uncle's house, a big and beautiful house with various types of wooden dynasty frames, a statue of Gandhiji, and a statue of Lord Jagannath. It didn't feel like being in a tribal area. There were more than 50 cotton sacks lying in the verandah, while other sacks were being loaded on a small truck. Jayanti's uncle Loknath was counting the sacks.

After a while, he came in an attire like that of people from Andhra. In this part of Odisha, which adjoins Andhra, most of the affluent people are more influenced by the lifestyle of the people of Andhra Pradesh and want to live like them. 

When told that I wanted to know and understand about cotton and why many villagers were troubled by it, Loknath began by abusing cotton-cultivating farmers in Oriya. Then he said, “Who had a house in this area earlier, whose children used to wear clothes? Everything that is visible here is because of kappa. Now, we will have to pay the price.”

When asked where the seeds of cotton were coming from, he said,

“Don’t ask; the whole problem is about the seed; this Bt (cotton variety) has been banned by Andhra people. Cotton cannot be grown there, but there is a high demand for cotton there. So, they give the seed, and cotton is grown in the border area.”

Incidentally, Andhra Pradesh has not banned Bt cotton – it has just prohibited cultivation of some types.

 When asked who brought in the seeds from Andhra Pradesh went silent for a while. Jayanti piped up, “Actually, uncle brings the seed from there; he provides the fertiliser. And when the crop comes, all the farmers give the crop to uncle”.

 When are the crops planted? Seed sowing starts in May-June, and the crop starts coming out in November.  Do you use any manure or fertiliser? The farmers were saying the seeds are expensive and the chemicals are even more expensive.

 After all these questions were fired at him, Loknath got up and said, “What expensive? Glycophosate is a little expensive. There is a ruckus over it. Doctors are saying that due to its spraying, cotton farmers are getting cancer, kidney failure. Everybody wants to starve the tribals by spreading rumors here”.

Glycophosate or glyphosate is the herbicide to which Bt cotton is tolerant. So, if you plant Bt cotton you can spray glyphosate freely without fear of the cotton plants getting damaged.

 “This time, I have bought it for Rs.6,200; last time, it was Rs.5,600 per quintal,” he said.

 When asked why he himself doesn’t plant cotton, Loknath said, “Who wants to die, brother?”

 A medical officer, requesting anonymity, admitted glyphosate was a problem. It is sprayed before sowing seeds to kill weeds.

“But it is the root cause of cancer, and if it enters the body by mistake, then kidney damage is certain. Patients are coming to the hospital every day. The government has banned it. But people don't listen. Dealers secretly bring it from Andhra and sell it”, he said,

 An officer in the agriculture department said cotton had “made the weather and climate here worse; the temperature in summers reaches 42 degrees and it is raining.”

 “Now you will see that after a few days there will be no cotton. Kappa cannot withstand the onslaught of weather; the change in weather here is not favourable for cotton. The government is working, but there is no improvement visible anywhere”, he added.

 So, this is the story of that white-looking flower, which has the scratched the faces of children, left thighs of old women damaged, and several bodies struggling with cancer. The souls of these illiterate tribals are wounded, all because they were lured with a few rupees and decided to turn away from traditional farming to commercial farming. Allowing themselves to be exploited continuously. 

It is said that many people are involved in this “conspiracy”, and to some extent, even some among these tribals.

So, allow this writer to change poet Kedarnath Singh’s lines:

Yah jo aapke diye ki bati hai

Kitno ke jangh ki nas kha jati hai

 (This wick of your lamp 

It eats away the veins of so many people's thighs)

 

The writer studied at Banaras Hindu University, Uttar Pradesh. He is currently working as a fellow in Koraput, Odisha. The views are personal.

 

The Political Economy of India-China Relations



C Saratchand 




India needs to draw lessons from Vietnam’s practice of strategic autonomy to ascend the technological ladder pertaining to global production networks.

A fundamental paradox underlies the Union government’s policy posture with respect to China. On the one hand, it is self-evident that India’s economic growth cannot be delinked from China given that it is the epicentre of world manufacturing in terms of production capacity, technology and demand. On the other hand, the Indian government has the persistent illusory expectation that the United States will help India “counterbalance” China. A key driver of this illusory expectation is the entanglement of many segments of Indian monopoly capital with international finance capital centred in the US.

This expectation of the Indian government is illusory because of at least two reasons. First, it is objectively not possible, since the passing of the unipolar interlude, for the US to effectively practice dual containment with respect to both China and Russia (besides a wedge strategy has become politically impractical). In other words, the greater the pivot to Asia, the more the strategic concessions the US would have to make with respect to Russia and vice-versa.

Second, the adverse strategic consequences to India of an excessive strategic convergence between China and Russia if directed against India cannot be counteracted by greater strategic proximity with the US.

The incidents on the India-China border in 2020 resulted in the Indian government undertaking policy steps, such as a de facto ban on Chinese foreign direct investment in India, prohibition on installation of Chinese equipment in India’s 5G network, erection of some barriers to imports from China, cancellation of direct flights between both countries, institution of a more exacting visa process for skilled personnel from China etc.  Optimistic expectations regarding these measures were also fuelled by the quest for a China plus one strategy by multinational corporations. This quest derives from the attempt by the US to reduce the leverage that China could exercise over it while also recognising that full decoupling from China is objectively infeasible. 

However, all these policy measures had significant adverse consequences for the Indian economy, which principally derive from the specific place of India in global production networks that is both a premise and consequence of its being in thrall to international finance capital.

The economic activities that prevail in India principally involve operations at the relatively lower reaches of the technological ladder. Besides, the Indian economy is inextricably dependent on imports from China for capital goods and semi-finished components, since possibilities for rapid import substitution or sourcing from competitive alternative suppliers are quite limited. Therefore, restrictions on Chinese imports have merely increased the cost of production for Indian firms. Similar considerations were applied to other measures involving direct flights, visas etc. This resulted in Indian big business mounting pressure on the Indian government to reverse these measures.

The ban on installation of 5G network equipment from China resulted in both lower quality and higher costs as well as a slower roll out of 5G network in the country.  It also ignored the technological dependence of alternative 5G network firms, such as Ericsson and Nokia on the two Chinese 5G network firms namely Huawei and Zhong Xing Telecommunication Equipment (ZTE).

Furthermore, by restricting the number of suppliers of such equipment, this policy measure enhanced the leverage of Ericsson and Nokia over Indian buyers. The plea that these measures were motivated by security considerations is dubious. This is the case since the most reliable network operators, from the security point of view, are in the public sector, namely, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited and Mahanagar Sanchar Nigam Limited. But these two public sector firms are deliberately denied access to operate 5G networks in order to increase profiteering by private monopoly network operators.

The ban on Chinese mobile apps was impact-wise the least significant, while it was played up way out of proportion in the propaganda of the neo-fascist dispensation. This political posturing involved the privileging of momentary theatrics over substance, since the objective limitations of these flawed measures were discernible even at the time of their institution.

The much hoped for (partial) relocation of global production networks from China to India has not transpired. Whatever relocation that did happen was to countries such as Vietnam and Mexico. This happened because bans or prohibitive tariffs imposed by the US on imports from China mostly led to import of semi-finished components (of varying degrees) into these two countries and their export after completion of assembly to the US.

In other words, Chinese exports to the US were re-routed through Vietnam and Mexico. Vietnam is a favoured location for many segments for global production networks since it has good infrastructure, a ratio of real wages to labour productivity that is conducive for labour arbitrage for economic activities that span up to the upper middle reaches of the technological ladder, geographical proximity to China and a pre-existing clustering of many related production enterprises.

Mexico while it possesses some of the same attributes as Vietnam (but to a lesser degree), is also geographically proximate to the US. This re-routing has been hastened since both Mexico and Vietnam are open to Chinese foreign direct investment.

The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme that was implicitly posited as an alternative to Chinese foreign direct investment, was instituted by the Indian government in 2020. But it has failed to meaningfully enhance its role in global production networks for a significant reason. The PLI scheme is not substantial enough to adequately counterbalance, for both domestic firms and multinational corporations, India’s relative disadvantage in labour arbitrage, infrastructural deficits, deficiencies in domestic demand, inability to deal with strategic hurdles to exports (especially those involving the middle and upper reaches of the technological ladder), inability to import relevant technology etc.

Besides, increases in production and exports as a result of the PLI scheme have also increased the import intensity of the Indian economy (given the Indian economy’s relatively limited role in global production networks) resulting in a mixed impact on output and balance of payments.

The Economic Survey of India 2023-24 was possibly the first policy document that recognised, albeit obliquely, the adverse consequences of these policy measures as well as the unfolding changes in global production networks. It sought to advocate foreign direct investment from China as being a means to both enhance the role of Indian firms in global production networks while reducing Indian imports from China.

This overture made in the Economic Survey of India 2023-24 was amplified in statements by others. There has also been progress in talks regrading restarting of direct flights between China and India as well as making the visa process for skilled Chinese personnel less exacting. The culmination of this process is the announcement of an agreement on the border issue between both countries on the eve of BRICS summit in Russia.

In this backdrop, a necessary (but not a sufficient) condition for the Indian economy to ascend the technological ladder pertaining to global production networks is that there must be a fundamental change in the strategic posture of India in international political economy. It would be apposite if India can draw lessons from Vietnam’s practice of strategic autonomy. The potential that will be created by this change can be realised through industrial policy only if India can disentangle itself from international finance capital centred in the US, which ineluctably requires the dislodging of the neo-fascist dispensation and its replacement by a democratic alternative.

 

The writer is Professor, Department of Economics, Satyawati College, University of Delhi. The views are personal.