Microplastics increasing in freshwater, directly related to plastic production

 News Release 1-Nov-2024

Penn State

 

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Jill Arriola, left, and Daniel Guarin collecting cores at the inlet to the John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge at Tinicum, which houses the largest remaining freshwater tidal marsh in Pennsylvania. 

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Credit: Lisa Emili/Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Microplastics have been steadily increasing in freshwater environments for decades and are directly tied to rising global plastic production since the 1950s, according to a new study by an interdisciplinary team of Penn State researchers. The findings provide insight into how microplastics move and spread in freshwater environments, which could be important for creating long-term solutions to reduce pollution, the researchers said. 

The work is available online now and will be published in the December issue of Science of the Total Environment.  

“Few studies examine how microplastics change over time,” said Nathaniel Warner, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering and the corresponding author on the paper. “Ours is one of the first to track microplastic levels in freshwater sediment from before the 1950s to today, showing that concentrations rise in line with plastic production.” 

Microplastics are tiny plastic particles that range in size from one micrometer, or 1/100 of the width of a human hair, to five millimeters, which is about the size of a pencil eraser. They can come from larger plastics that break down into smaller pieces or be made directly by manufacturers. For this study, the team examined freshwater sediment cores from four watersheds in Pennsylvania: Kiskiminetas River, Blacklick Creek, Raystown Lake and Darby Creek. 

Contrary to the team's expectations, the study found no correlation between population density or land use and high levels of microplastics.  

“Based on other findings in the literature, what we thought would be important turned out not to be driving forces in microplastic variation across sites, notably the percentage of microplastics related to developed area and population density,” said Lisa Emili, associate professor of physical geography and environmental studies at Penn State Altoona and a co-author on the paper. 

The researchers also said they were surprised to discover that while microplastic accumulation increased each decade through 2010, it decreased from 2010 to 2020.  

“Although this is a preliminary finding that requires further study, this decrease could be related to increased recycling efforts,” Emili said. 

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, recycling efforts for plastic increased significantly between 1980 and 2010. Although plastic production also increased, the percentage of recycled plastic increased from less than 0.3% in 1980 to nearly 8% in 2010. 

Additionally, Raymond Najjar, a professor of oceanography and a co-author on the paper, said that this study could shed light on the "missing plastics" paradox. This paradox challenges researchers' understanding of plastic waste in the ocean because, while estimates suggest that 7,000 to 25,000 kilotons of plastic enter the ocean each year, only about 250 kilotons are believed to be floating on the surface.  

“This suggests that estuaries, especially tidal marshes, may trap river-borne plastics before they reach the ocean,” said Najjar, who previously published in Frontiers in Marine Science on simulations of filter estuaries. “This could explain why there is far less plastic floating around in the surface ocean compared to how much is expected to be there given the input to the ocean from rivers.” 

Warner said these findings suggest that there will continue to be increasing amounts of microplastics in both water and sediment as people use more plastic.  

"Humans are ingesting plastic when they eat and drink and inhaling it when they breathe, and the long-term impacts are just beginning to be studied," Warner said. “However, we need to figure out how to release less plastic into the environment and how to reduce consumption and exposure.”

According to Emili, making a study like this one successful requires an interdisciplinary team. 

“This research shows Penn State’s broad expertise, bringing together a team from three campuses, five colleges and five disciplines,” Emili said. “We brought together complementary skillsets from our fields of chemistry, engineering, hydrology, oceanography and soil science.” 

This research project was initially funded with an Institute of Energy and the Environment seed grant. 

“That funded project really served as an ‘incubator’ for a continuation and expansion of our work exploring the fate and transport of microplastics in freshwater environments, with a particular focus on coastal locations,” Emili said. 

Najjar agreed and said he would like to get a more comprehensive assessment of the trapping of river-borne plastics in estuaries.  

“We have known for a long time that estuaries heavily process river borne materials, like carbon, sediment and nutrients, and this processing has a big impact on what eventually reaches the ocean,” Najjar said. “I think estuaries could be functioning in a similar way for plastics, but we need more than just a modeling study and a single core. We need to consider the likely sources and sinks of plastics for a given system, such as rivers, atmosphere, estuarine sediment and marshes.” 

Warner added that he hopes to examine how the composition and types of microplastics have changed over time and assess how the associated health risks have evolved. 

In addition to Emili, Najjar and Warner, the other Penn State researchers who contributed to the study include, Jutamas Bussarakum, lead author and doctoral student in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; William Burgos, professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Samual Cohen, who graduated with their master’s degree in geography earlier this year; Kimberly Van Meter, assistant professor in the Department of Geography; Jon Sweetman, assistant research professor in the Department of Ecosystem Science and Management; Patrick Drohan, professor in the Department of Ecosystem Science and Management; Jill Arriola, assistant research professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science; and Katharina Pankratz, who graduated with their doctorate in civil and environmental engineering earlier this year. 

The U.S. National Science Foundation and the Penn State’s Commonwealth Campus Center Nodes (C3N) Program and the Institute of Energy and the Environment supported this research.

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Journal

Science of The Total Environment

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176619 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Decadal changes in microplastic accumulation in freshwater sediments: Evaluating influencing factors

 

Water fern gains more evidence as safe potential global food insecurity solution

International research points to promise and safety of azolla, a plant that can double its biomass in two days and capture nitrogen from the air

Penn State

 

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Findings from this study suggest that azolla is food safe and has the potential to safely feed millions of people due to its rapid growth while free-floating on shallow fresh water without the need for nitrogen fertilizers. 

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Credit: Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Is the floating freshwater fern commonly called Carolina azolla the potential answer to global food insecurity or a possible threat to humanity? On the heels of a study published earlier this year by researchers at Penn State on the plant’s nutrition and digestibility, the team learned of concerns about the plant’s potential toxin content. The researchers joined an international effort to test Azolla and found that it does not contain cyanotoxins, potent toxins produced by a type of cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, associated with the plant.

The team published their findings in a new study in Plants.

“That finding suggests that azolla is food safe and has the potential to safely feed millions of people due to its rapid growth while free-floating on shallow fresh water without the need for nitrogen fertilizers,” said Daniel Winstead, research technologist in Penn State’s College of Agricultural Sciences and lead author on the earlier study. He works in the labs of Michael Jacobson, professor of ecosystem science and management, and Francesco Di Gioia, assistant professor of vegetable crop science. “Azolla is an amazing plant that can double its biomass in two days and capture nitrogen from the air.”

After the original study published, Winstead said, it was brought to his attention that the cyanobacteria that live inside azolla could produce powerful cyanotoxins that dissuade animals from eating the plant. Cyanotoxins have been linked to neurodegenerative disorders including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and Parkinson’s disease, liver and kidney failure, muscle paralysis and other severe health issues. Despite the threat of the toxins and the use and study of azolla, he explained they learned that no scientists had definitively tested for the presence of these toxins in azolla.

“I felt a sense of responsibility to help answer this question because we had just published about azolla’s nutritional quality,” Winstead said. “I didn’t want to be promoting the consumption of a potentially harmful plant. As I was preparing an experimental design, I was contacted by the Azolla Foundation about that organization’s interest in our research. I reached out to them and asked if they knew anyone who was looking into azolla’s toxicity from cyanotoxins.”

Several weeks later he received an email saying a group of researchers was investigating the cyanobacteria-cyanotoxins in azolla question, and they invited Winstead to be a part of the study. 

“Together, we analyzed the results and concluded that azolla, and more specifically a cyanobacterium that lives in cavities in the leaves of azolla, do not produce any of the main cyanotoxins,” he said, explaining that the azolla’s cyanobacterium is Nostoc azollae, an endosymbiont or organism that lives within or on the surface of another organism in a mutually beneficial relationship. “More importantly, the known genes required to make these toxins are not even present within the genome of Nostoc azollae.” 

According to Winstead, this discovery adds to a growing body of evidence that azolla could be used broadly to solve several global challenges.

“It could help feed many people in need around the world as well as become a new source of biofertilizer and biodiesel,” he said.

Also on the research team were by Jonatha Bujak and Alexandra Bujak, the Azolla Foundation, Blackpool, United Kingdom; Ana Pereira, Joana Azevedo and Vitor Vasconcelos, University of Porto, Portugal; Victor Leshyk, Azolla Biodesign, Sedona, Arizona; Minh Pham Gia, independent researcher, Hanoi, Vietnam; and Timo Stadtlander, The Research Institute of Organic Agriculture, Frick, Switzerland.

Open Philanthropy, Penn State — Research on Emergency Food Resilience project financially supported this research.

Daniel Winstead, research technologist in the College of Agricultural Sciences, was lead author on the earlier Penn State study on azolla's nutrition and digestibility, and is a co-author on the recently published study suggesting the plant does not contain cyanotoxins. 

Credit

Penn State

Journal

Plants

DOI

10.3390/plants13192707 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Azolla as a Safe Food: Suppression of Cyanotoxin-Related Genes and Cyanotoxin Production in Its Symbiont, Nostoc azollae

 

Scientists examine how wastewater practices in Florida Keys impact water quality

Penn State

 

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Pleistocene-aged fossil coral within the Key Largo Limestone bedrock. 

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Credit: Miquela Ingalls/Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Wastewater contains nutrients that can overfeed algae, leading to harmful algal blooms and pollution issues in the ocean and other waterways. A new study by researchers at Penn State tracked how these nutrients migrate from disposal sites in the Florida Keys, and the results have already informed wastewater practices in the region.

The scientists reported their findings, which summarize two years of wastewater and groundwater monitoring data, in the journal ACS ES&T Water. The data were made public as they were collected.

Many treatment facilities in the Florida Keys perform initial biological and chemical treatment of wastewater and then inject it into shallow wells, less than 100 feet underground. In theory, remaining nutrients like inorganic phosphate would adsorb or stick to the surface of the porous limestone bedrock as the wastewater plume travels in the subsurface before reaching coastal waters, the scientists said.

But Penn State researchers and other groups of scientists have detected potential wastewater contamination in groundwater and nearshore waters, suggesting current wastewater treatment and disposal techniques may be insufficient. Citing previous studies by other researchers and preliminary data from this study led by Penn State researchers, an environmental group sued the city of Marathon, Florida, in 2022, over alleged pollution from shallow wells. The city agreed to settle the lawsuit by transitioning away from the use of such wells.

In 2021, Penn State scientists installed monitoring wells around the injection site of a city of Marathon wastewater treatment facility, and gathered two years of data on nutrients, dissolved ions and human-produced compounds, such as the artificial sweetener sucralose and pharmaceuticals, in groundwater and nearshore waters.

They found the shallow injection process removed more than 90% of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), a type of inorganic phosphate. But SRP and sucralose were both detected in nearshore waters, indicating incomplete removal from wastewater, according to the researchers.

“Our findings suggest the use of shallow injection as a disposal mechanism for treated wastewater should be reevaluated at facilities with large discharge capacities,” said Miquela Ingalls, assistant professor of geosciences at Penn State and corresponding author on the study. “Further analytical and quantitative approaches like the ones we used here may help determine whether wastewater injection can be considered the direct equivalent of a point-source contaminant discharge.”

The Clean Water Act makes it illegal to directly discharge contaminants into fresh water — like sewage spilling from a pipe into a river. But whether something is considered the equivalent of direct discharge is complicated and involves factors like how far the water must travel and the path it takes, the researchers said. 

In the Florida Keys, the water travels through bedrock comprising a porous carbonate material made of ancient coral reefs that can bind phosphate to its surface through a process called adsorption.

“The idea is that any remaining phosphate that wasn’t remediated in the initial treatment steps, once they pump it into the ground, will be adsorbed onto the bedrock’s surface and taken out of the solution,” Ingalls said. “We studied how effective this remediation mechanism was by investigating the efficiency and permanence of phosphate adsorption.”

The scientists said about 75% of the SRP was removed from the plume in the first 10 days of transit by adsorption. A slower removal mechanism in which SRP is incorporated into calcium phosphate minerals, like those that make up our bones and teeth, brought the total phosphate removal efficiency above 90%.

The researchers also injected fluorescent green dye to trace the movement of wastewater from the injection well through the array of sampling well sites.

Groundwater in the Florida Keys has a high salinity due to its proximity to the ocean and is therefore very dense, the scientists said. When less dense wastewater is injected underground, it quickly buoys back up to the surface.

This is an issue because contaminants or nutrients that were not removed in the initial treatment or adsorbed onto the bedrock may travel directly to nearshore waters along the coastline, the scientists said.  

“It’s sort of a confluence of issues because of the geography of the Keys,” Ingalls said. “You have this salty groundwater that causes the less dense wastewater to buoy to the surface. And the Keys themselves are such narrow land bodies that once it returns to the surface, there is very little transport distance before it’s back in the ocean.”

Ingalls said the team is continuing to analyze data collected from the shallow injection wells and is currently focusing on levels of nitrogen — another wastewater pollutant.

“With phosphate, it’s about the chemical binding to the carbonate bedrock,” she said. “With nitrogen, it’s entirely about the microbial communities that live in the subsurface and consume nitrate and other nitrogen species. The reason to study both is because both can have similar negative impacts on clean water. Both can cause eutrophication, which increases algae growth and low-oxygen conditions that are harmful to fragile shallow marine ecosystems.”

Lee Kump, the John Leone Dean in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences and a professor of geosciences, and Kate Meyers and Megan Martin, who earned their master’s degrees from Penn State in 2023 and 2022, respectively, also contributed to this work.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provided funding for this work.

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Journal

ACS ES&T Water

DOI

10.1021/acsestwater.4c00407 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

The Efficiency of Phosphate Removal via Shallow Wastewater Injection into a Saline Carbonate Aquifer

 

$1.3 million NSF grant to fund research into restoration of degraded ecosystems

Penn State

 

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Restoration of Miombo woodland, which includes tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands, in Malawi as a nature-based solution addressing biodiversity loss, climate change resiliency and supporting social benefits. 

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Credit: Ida Djenontin/Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Restoring degraded ecosystems has emerged as a global policy priority to address the interlinked concerns of deforestation and land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change while delivering social benefits, according to the United Nations.

An international team of researchers led by Ida Djenontin, assistant professor of geography at Penn State, was recently awarded a $1.3 million grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Dynamics of Integrated Socio-Environmental Systems program to investigate the socioecological outcomes of restoration in degraded woodlands ecosystems.

Ecosystem restoration, anchored in the United Nations’ (UN) Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021-2030, is understood as “the process of halting and reversing degradation, resulting in improved ecosystem services, and recovered biodiversity.”

“Ecosystem restoration is a clear international priority, and it is included in both the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity,” said Djenontin, who also is a co-funded faculty member of the Institutes of Energy and the Environment and the Alliance for Education, Science, Engineering, and Design with Africa. “The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report also endorses restoration as one of the possible solutions for carbon dioxide removal, especially given the potential for soil and biomass carbon removal and storage. Additionally, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework refers to restoration as a way to achieve its targets.”

Ecosystem restoration encompasses a wide continuum of practices, depending on local conditions and societal choice, including ecological restoration but also forest landscape restoration approaches that aim to regain ecological integrity and enhance human well-being in deforested and degraded landscapes.

“Restoration actions are expected to recover biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services that support natural resource-based livelihoods and contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation,” Djenontin said. “But it’s not about restoring to a pristine ideal landscape — rather it's about restoring to the objectives defined by the people living in those landscapes.”

Given the complexities of restoration, especially when considering woodland ecosystems, tradeoffs between social and ecological goals and local and global priorities are not well understood, according to Djenontin.

“So far, however, we know very little, especially from empirical evidence, about what the socio-environmental outcomes of restoration initiatives and their drivers are,” Djenontin said. “Differing interests and priorities from global to national to local scales exist in that some may want to focus on biodiversity conservation or climate mitigation, or others may want to focus on securing the livelihoods and broader human wellbeing of the local communities. We want to know the trade-offs between those different goals, how those trade-offs translate in the design and implementation of restoration programs, and how people are considered and integrated in the restoration processes.”

This project, “Socioecological Outcomes of Restoration in Forest-Grassland Ecosystems,” seeks to address critical knowledge gaps in restoration science that are of global importance. The researchers will focus on interactions and tradeoffs between farmer communities, multiple levels of governance and landscape functionalities — together, these areas form a multi-scalar socio-environmental system of mosaic dry forest-grassland restoration.

The researchers will investigate how restoration changes ecological and social conditions, identify what drives the ecological and social changes induced by restoration, and develop cost-effective indicators and tools to advance systematic assessment of socio-environmental benefits and tradeoffs of restoration interventions.

“We want to contribute to a broader understanding of how woodlands that are being transformed through restoration are achieving desirable social and ecological outcomes,” said Erica Smithwick, distinguished professor of geography and co-principal investigator on the project.

While focusing on Southern Africa as a regional case study, the findings will be applicable to other tropical mosaic dry forest-grassland landscapes, the researchers said.

“Our research has implications specifically for southern Africa but can be applied to other dryland ecosystems that we find widespread across Asia, Africa and the Americas as well as throughout the United States, reflecting a wide relevance,” Djenontin said.

The research will employ multiple methods, including remote sensing, field-based ecological measurements of biodiversity and carbon storage, household surveys, interviews and focus group discussions to address globally important critical knowledge gaps in restoration science.

“We will use interdisciplinary methods, drawing from both ecological and social science methods and governance theories, to assess the social and ecological outcomes,” Smithwick said. “By generating empirical evidence and insights about the socio-ecological outcomes of restoration processes, our research will advance understanding and application of restoration as a nature-based solution in critical ecosystems globally.”

Other investigators on the project include Tong Qiu, assistant professor of ecology at Duke University, and Forrest Fleischman, associate professor of environmental policy at the University of Minnesota. Project collaborators include Wayne Twine, associate professor in the School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa, and Judith Francesca Mangani Kamoto, professor of forestry and rural development at Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources in Malawi.

Non-academic partners, including the Malawi’s Department of Forestry, Conservation South Africa and the African Union Development Agency’s African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AUDA-NEPAD/AFR100 Secretariat), also will collaborate on the project.

 

Evolutionary paths vastly differ for birds, bats

Cornell University

ITHACA, N.Y. – New Cornell University research has found that, unlike birds, the evolution of bats’ wings and legs is tightly coupled, which may have prevented them from filling as many ecological niches as birds.

“We initially expected to confirm that bat evolution is similar to that of birds, and that their wings and legs evolve independently of one another. The fact we found the opposite was greatly surprising,” said Andrew Orkney, postdoctoral researcher in the laboratory of Brandon Hedrick, assistant professor biomedical sciences.

Both researchers are co-corresponding authors of research published on Nov. 1 in Nature Ecology and Evolution.

Because legs and wings perform different functions, researchers had previously thought that the origin of flight in vertebrates required forelimbs and hindlimbs to evolve independently, allowing them to adapt to their distinct tasks more easily. Comparing bats and birds allows for the testing of this idea because they do not share a common flying ancestor and, therefore, constitute independent replicates to study the evolution of flight.

The researchers observed in both bats and birds that the shapes of the bones within a species’ wing (handwing, radius, humerus), or within a species’ leg (femur and tibia) are correlated – meaning that within a limb, bones evolve together. However, when looking at the correlation across legs and wings, results are different: Bird species show little to no correlation, whereas bats show strong correlation.

This means that, contrary to birds, bats’ forelimbs and hindlimbs did not evolve independently: When the wing shape changes – either increases or shrinks, for example – the leg shape changes in the same direction.

“We suggest that the coupled evolution of wing and leg limits bats’ capability to adapt to new ecologies,” Hedrick said.

Following their discovery, the team began re-examining the evolution of bird skeletons in greater depth.

“While we showed that the evolution of birds’ wings and legs is independent, and it appears this is an important explanation for their evolutionary success,” Orkney said, “we still don’t know why birds are able to do this or when it began to occur in their evolutionary history.”

For additional information, see this Cornell Chronicle story.

Cornell University has dedicated television and audio studios available for media interviews. 

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Journal

Nature Ecology & Evolution

DOI

10.1038/s41559-024-02572-9 

 

AMERIKA

Investment in pediatric emergency care could save more than 2,100 young lives annually

Oregon Health & Science University

In emergencies, children have distinct needs because of their unique physiological, emotional and developmental characteristics. But 83% of emergency departments nationwide are not fully prepared to meet those needs — which can be life-threatening for a child in cases of severe illness or injury.

A new Oregon Health & Science University-led study, published today in JAMA Network Open, found that bridging that gap, known as becoming “pediatric ready,” could prevent the deaths of more than 2,100 children each year with modest financial investment.  

In Oregon specifically, an investment of just over $3 per child — a total cost of about $2.7 million annually — could save approximately 30 children’s lives each year when adjusted for population size.

“Few topics are more important than children and their health. We need to do everything we can to keep them alive, and improving pediatric ED readiness is one significant way to move the needle,” said Craig Newgard, M.D., M.P.H., professor of emergency medicine in the OHSU School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “This study builds on a growing body of research demonstrating that every hospital can and must be ready for children’s emergencies.

“For the first time, we have comprehensive national and state-by-state data that emphasizes both the urgency and feasibility of this work.”

Saving lives with readiness

The research team, co-led by Newgard and Nathan Kuppermann, M.D., chair of pediatrics and chief academic officer at Children’s National Hospital, analyzed data from 4,840 emergency departments, focusing on 669,019 children at risk for death upon seeking care. Using predictive models, they assessed how every emergency department achieving high pediatric readiness — defined as scoring at least 88 out of 100 on the National Pediatric Readiness Project, or NPRP, assessment — could impact mortality rates.

By applying the potential reduction in mortality associated with high readiness to the number of at-risk children and adjusting state-specific estimates for population size, the researchers identified the number of lives that could be saved each year: Of the 7,619 children who die annually while receiving emergency services, 2,143 lives could have been saved through universal high ED pediatric readiness.

The study authors emphasize that modest investment in health care dollars would be needed to eliminate these inequities in pediatric emergency care: The cost per child resident by state ranges from $0 to $12, a price tag lower than a single dose of most routine childhood vaccines.

They also outline several strategies to improve pediatric emergency care, such as integrating high pediatric readiness into hospital accreditation requirements and incentivizing readiness through performance-based reimbursement models.

“This research emphasizes the urgent need for widespread investment in pediatric readiness,” said Kate Remick, M.D., co-author of the study and emergency physician at the Dell School of Medicine at the University of Texas at Austin. “The National Pediatric Readiness Project has provided a roadmap for improvement. But we need the full engagement of clinicians, health care administrators, policymakers, and families to make universal pediatric readiness a reality.”

Ready, able to save a child’s life

On a high level, readiness of emergency departments represents the ability to care for acutely ill and injured children. In practice, achieving high pediatric ED readiness includes elements such as care coordination, personnel, quality improvement, safety, equipment, and policies and procedures.

To support hospitals’ efforts, the NPRP has developed free, open-access resources for ED providers and staff to help facilitate delivery of high-quality emergency care to all children. The Emergency Medical Services for Children Program also provides individualized resources, including program administrators in all 50 states who are able to guide hospitals through readiness work based on their state’s unique health care needs and landscape.

Understanding the significant geographic barriers many individuals face to receive care, upcoming research by Newgard and colleagues will focus on rural emergency care and how hospitals can better serve children living in rural and frontier areas. The research team will also continue to investigate the economic benefits of pediatric ED readiness, including long-term health system savings.

“The vast majority of kids — more than 80% — who present for care at emergency departments across the country are cared for outside of children’s hospitals, primarily in general community EDs,” Newgard said.

“What’s so impactful about the concept of readiness is that it’s designed to be inclusive of all hospitals regardless of size, resources, geography or other constraints,” he added. “It’s well within our reach to ensure every hospital is ready and able to save a child’s life.”

The research was supported by a Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Emergency Medical Services for Children Targeted Issue grant (H34MC33243-01-01) and an HHS National Institutes of Health (NIH) Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) grant (R24 HD085927). The contents are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of, nor an endorsement, by HHS, HRSA, NIH, or the U.S. Government.

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Journal

JAMA Network Open

DOI

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42154 

Article Title

State and National Estimates of the Cost of Emergency Department Pediatric Readiness and Lives Saved

Article Publication Date

1-Nov-2024

 

Political pros no better than public in predicting which messages persuade

Yale University

Political campaigns spend big bucks hiring consultants to craft persuasive messaging, but a new study coauthored by Yale political scientist Joshua L. Kalla demonstrates that political professionals perform no better than laypeople in predicting which messages will sway voters.

In the study, Kalla and his coauthors evaluated how well sample groups of political practitioners — professionals who work for political campaigns, polling firms, and advocacy organizations — and members of the public could predict the effectiveness of 172 campaign messages concerning 21 political issues, including legalizing marijuana, cancelling student debt, and increasing border security.

They found that both groups performed barely better than chance and that the practitioners were no more perceptive than laypeople in identifying messaging that resonates with people.

“We found that neither political practitioners nor the mass public are particularly accurate in predicting which persuasive messages are more effective than others,” said Kalla, associate professor of political science in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences. “This suggests that political practitioners who craft language intended to persuade have fairly poor intuitions about which messages people will find persuasive.”

The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was coauthored by David E. Brookman, Christian Caballero, and Matthew Easton, all of the University of California, Berkeley.

For the study, the researchers gathered 172 text-based political messages that political practitioners have used to support or oppose 21 distinct issues. They pulled the messages from sources such as voter guides published by various advocacy organizations or the social media accounts of prominent politicians.

An example is a message used by the Marijuana Policy Project to support the legalization of cannabis: “Polls show that a strong and growing majority of Americans agree it is time to end cannabis prohibition. Nationwide, a recent Gallup poll found that 66% support making marijuana use legal for adults.”

To measure the effectiveness of these messages, the researchers conducted a large-scale survey experiment, in which they randomly assigned 23,167 participants into either a treatment group or a control group. The treatment groups were presented with messages for three specific issues; the control group saw no messages. Then they questioned participants in both the treatment and control groups on their opinions of the issues, for a total of 67,215 observations from the participants. The researchers used this data to estimate the efficacy of each message.

Next, they asked 1,524 political practitioners with varied experience and expertise and 21,247 laypeople to predict the messages’ effectiveness. (Ninety-one percent of the practitioners reported being directly involved with developing messaging.) Both groups did little better predicting the messages’ persuasiveness than if they had guessed randomly.

The study showed that the members of the public believed that other people are more persuadable than the initial survey showed or the practitioners expected. But after accounting for those inflated expectations, practitioners did not predict meaningfully better than laypeople, the study found.

Among the political practitioners, the study found that experience or issue expertise did not translate into a greater ability to identify effective messages.

The findings suggest that, rather than relying on their intuition, political practitioners should consider incorporating data-science techniques into their evaluations of potential messages, said Kalla, a faculty fellow at Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies.

“The main takeaway here is that political practitioners have tools available to help them identify effective messages without having to rely on their gut feeling,” he said. “They could use survey experiments similar to what we did in this study. We see political campaigns already doing that, and I suspect more will adopt such techniques moving forward.”

 

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences