Domino effect in the Amazon region

New publication: Adaptivity threatened by global warming and deforestation

MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen

 

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The Amazon rainforest and the Amazon region are ecosystems that react to changing patterns of precipitation. Photo: Thomas Akabane, University of São Paulo

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Credit: Thomas Akabane, University of São Paulo

The Earth’s climate system is highly complex and its components, which include the ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation, are closely interlinked. Changes in individual parameters can have far-reaching effects on the entire system. To a certain extent, the individual components of the system are resilient and can absorb changes. Climate and Earth-system research, however, assume that there are various tipping points. If these are exceeded, the climate system can change its state within a short period of time. It is also presumed that tipping points in the climate system influence each other and can trigger chain reactions, or cascades.

Among the global tipping points are the Amazon rainforest and the large-scale Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Further warming of the planet can lead to a significant weakening of the AMOC. This would slow down the conveyor belt that transports warm water to the northern regions, drastically changing the temperature distribution in the Atlantic. This would also have consequences for the Amazon region because the altered temperatures in the Atlantic would affect the atmospheric water cycle, and thus also the patterns and amounts of precipitation.

Analysis of Residual Pollen and Carbon

Exactly how the AMOC and the Amazon are interconnected as systems, and how marine circulation affects the Amazon region, have not yet been extensively researched. A group of researchers led by Dr. Thomas Akabane and Prof. Dr. Christiano Chiessi from the University of São Paulo has now analyzed changes in the vegetation of the Amazon region. With their international team, they have analyzed pollen and carbon residues representing the past 25,000 years from a marine sediment core taken from the mouth of the Amazon River.

This analysis provides the team with a detailed glimpse into the past of one of the most species-rich ecosystems on Earth. The data show how the vegetation, along with wet and dry periods, has changed during the climate events of the last ice age, called Heinrich Events, when the AMOC was drastically weakened. The researchers found, in particular, a dramatic decline in rainforest vegetation in the northern part of the Amazon region.

Close Connection Between Atlantic Circulation and the Amazon Ecosystem

“The study is the result of a long-term German-Brazilian cooperative project, which began in 2012 with a joint expedition of the Research Vessel MARIA S. MERIAN in the estuarine area of the Amazon. Our data show that the Amazon ecosystem was able to adapt in the past to changes in the patterns of precipitation that resulted from weakened Atlantic circulation. But a weakening of the AMOC in the future occurring simultaneously with an increase in deforestation could threaten the stability of this important global system,” says Dr. Stefan Mulitza of MARUM.

Further studies employing climate and vegetation models indicate that a weakening of the AMOC under present-day conditions would have an effect on Amazon vegetation similar to that which it had during the past ice age. “The models have shown us that the AMOC need not completely collapse in order to have an effect on the rainforest. The northern areas of the Amazon region are massively impacted under mere moderate changes in the AMOC,” explains Dr. Matthias Prange of MARUM.

The results illustrate how complex the global system is. “Driving processes at high latitudes, like the melting of Greenland ice, can have a substantial effect on the tropics. Such long-distance influences often have severe regional effects, very often for people who are only minimally responsible for causing climate change,” adds Prof. Dr. Gerrit Lohmann of AWI.

Original publication:

Thomas Akabane, Cristiano Chiessi, Marina Hirota, Ilham Bouimetarhan, Matthias Prange, Stefan Mulitza, Dailson Bertassoli Jr., Christoph Häggi, Arie Staal, Gerrit Lohmann, Niklas Boers, Anne-Laure Daniau, Rafael Oliveira, Marília Campos, Xiaoxu Shi, Paulo De Oliveira: Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests. Nature Geoscience 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z

MARUM produces fundamental scientific knowledge about the role of the ocean and the seafloor in the total Earth system. The dynamics of the oceans and the seabed significantly impact the entire Earth system through the interaction of geological, physical, biological and chemical processes. These influence both the climate and the global carbon cycle, resulting in the creation of unique biological systems. MARUM is committed to fundamental and unbiased research in the interests of society, the marine environment, and in accordance with the sustainability goals of the United Nations. It publishes its quality-assured scientific data to make it publicly available. MARUM informs the public about new discoveries in the marine environment and provides practical knowledge through its dialogue with society. MARUM cooperation with companies and industrial partners is carried out in accordance with its goal of protecting the marine environment.

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Journal

Nature Geoscience

DOI

10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z 

 

New UMass research estimates carbon emissions from 22 million stream reaches across the US

Previous models could overestimate CO2 emissions from inland waters by as much as 25%

University of Massachusetts Amherst

 

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\The researchers estimated carbon emissions across 22 million streams across the U.S. Blue areas emit lower amounts of CO2 while red areas emit more. Zooming into the area in the yellow box demonstrates the level of detail for calculating the carbon footprint for each stream, and how this footprint can change at different points along the same river. 

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Credit: Matthew Winnick

AMHERST, Mass. — Using a sophisticated new modeling approach, researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have estimated carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters to 22 million U.S. lakes, rivers and reservoirs. It marks the first time this approach has been applied at a continental scale, and reveals previous methods may have overestimated CO2 emissions by as much as 25%. 

In rivers, lakes and streams, CO2 is generated mostly through the breakdown of organic matter. Any time there is more CO2 in the water than the air, that water will “breathe” it out, emitting carbon as a gas — but how much CO2 , and how much is coming from each specific source, is still a big question mark. 

“We need to know how much CO2 is being generated so we can predict how it will respond to climate change,” says Matthew Winnick, assistant professor of Earth, Geographic and Climate Sciences and corresponding author on the paper published in AGU Advances. “As temperature rises, we tend to think that a lot of the natural carbon cycle processes will respond to that and potentially amplify climate change.” 

To date, these estimates have been generated by taking the average stream CO2 concentration over large areas and applying it across the waters in a given region. However, this fails to capture the range of CO2 emissions across different environments.  

“When you have a really turbulent stream, it’s going to de-gas a lot faster,” explains Winnick. Also, small, headwater streams receive more CO2 from groundwater compared to water further downstream, which also impacts how much CO2 that part of a river will emit. “Aggregating these really steep mountain reaches in with low slope areas just misses a lot of information,” he adds. 

In their alternative model, the researchers simulate carbon movement in each stream reach individually to get more realistic estimates of how much CO2 comes out of these bodies of water.  

Winnick and Brian Saccardi, a former graduate student in the Earth, Geographic and Climate Sciences Department and the co-lead author on this paper, previously tested their method using the East River watershed in Colorado’s Rocky Mountains. By partnering with Colin Gleason, Armstrong Professor of civil and environmental engineering, and Craig Brinkerhoff, then a UMass doctoral student and co-lead author of the study, they were able to apply their model to 22 million different stream reaches across the country. 

“We tested it out in the mountains in Colorado and we saw that Colin and Craig had been doing this large-scale river network modeling. This was a natural fit,” Winnick adds. 

They found that their estimates modeled emissions of 120 million metric tons of carbon, while the standard aggregate modeled estimated emissions of 159 million metric tons — a difference of 25%. “As a result, the whole budget shifts because these mountain areas play a really strong role in CO2 emissions at the continental scale,” Winnick says. 

One area where having more accurate estimations of carbon emissions may have an impact is in carbon sequestration efforts. Winnick nods to projects that add calcium carbonate minerals into streams in an attempt to convert the CO2 to a more stable form.  

“If we want to know if these methods can work, we need to know how much CO2 is in these river systems,” he says, as well as how CO2 changes dynamically over the length of a stream. “We know that CO2 varies wildly — it can change by orders of magnitude within tens of meters along a stream. So having ways to predict these dynamics will really help in evaluating whether and where carbon sequestration might be effective.” 

Another debate in this field is: where does the CO2 actually originate from — groundwater or stream corridors? If researchers are to accurately predict how carbon emissions may change in response to climate change, they need an answer to this question because different environments have unique responses to climate change. 

“If it’s coming from this near stream sediment, where water is actively being exchanged back and forth between the stream itself and the underground, it’s going to have a different response to changes in temperature or precipitation than it would if it was happening in the hillslope groundwater system,” Winnick explains.  

Winnick’s research has landed on the side of the stream corridor, which includes the water in streams and near-stream sediments, though he acknowledges that this is still very much an open question. “We hope this study will spur more efforts to get a more precise budget for where this CO2 is coming from,” he says. 

This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. 

 

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Journal

AGU Advances

DOI

10.1029/2024AV001294 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Toward Modeling Continental-Scale Inland Water Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Article Publication Date

4-Nov-2024

 

Sensitive yet empathetic: The dual nature of highly sensitive persons in the workplace

Researchers from Osaka University reveal that Highly Sensitive Persons (HSPs) experience higher stress but also greater empathy, highlighting the dual nature of their presence in the workplace.

Osaka University

 

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Image of People carrying Work Stress

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Credit: 2024 Ioku and Watamura, Are the Highly Sensitive Person at Work Likely to Feel Stressed and Empathetic? Japanese Journal of Applied Psychology

Osaka, Japan – Work stress is a prevalent issue globally, and a recent study from Japan highlights a distinct group of employees who perceive stress in a unique way. Highly Sensitive Persons (HSPs), known for their heightened sensitivities to external stimuli, tend to experience higher levels of stress and display increased empathy, offering potential benefits to their organizations.

In a study soon to be published in the Japanese Journal of Applied Psychology, researchers from Osaka University have revealed that the score for HSP is positively correlated with the score for work stress, even after accounting for personality traits like optimism and pessimism. Interestingly, the score for HSP is also positively correlated with the score for empathy, suggesting that their heightened sensitivity enables them to connect deeply with others, potentially fostering a more supportive work environment.

Work stress has been recognized as a major cause of early turnover, job dissatisfaction, emotional exhaustion, decreased productivity, and even suicide. In Japan, the issue of early turnover among young people is a matter of great public concern. Understanding individual differences in work stress is important for addressing this issue in terms of which individuals to target with strategies.

The research team conducted an online survey in February 2022, involving 296 working adults aged 18 and above.

“Our study found that HSPs in the workplace tend to feel more stress and approximately 26% of working adults could be classified as HSPs,” says lead author Tomohiro Ioku. “This is surprising because it suggests a substantial portion of the workforce might be experiencing higher levels of stress.”

Furthermore, HSPs were found to be more empathetic towards their colleagues, suggesting that their sensitivity also allows them to connect deeply with others, potentially fostering a supportive work environment.

“Our findings indicate that while HSPs are more susceptible to stress, their high levels of empathy can be a valuable asset to organizations, particularly in roles that require strong interpersonal skills,” explains senior author Eiichiro Watamura.

These insights have important implications for how workplaces can be designed and managed. Stress in the workplace is often linked to issues like job dissatisfaction, high turnover, and emotional exhaustion. Traditional support systems such as mentoring programs may not be sufficient if they do not take into account the diverse needs of employees, particularly those of HSPs.

“By understanding the unique traits of HSPs, industrial organizations can develop more inclusive and supportive environments,” says Ioku. “This could improve employee retention and overall workplace well-being.”

The researchers hope that their findings will encourage further studies on the positive attributes of HSPs. They believe that fostering a work environment that acknowledges and supports the traits of HSPs can enhance both productivity and employee satisfaction.

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The article, “Are Highly Sensitive Persons at Work Likely to Feel Stressed and Empathetic?”, will be published in Japanese Journal of Applied Psychology at DOI: https://doi.org/10.24651/oushinken.50.1_11

About Osaka University
Osaka University was founded in 1931 as one of the seven imperial universities of Japan and is now one of Japan’s leading comprehensive universities with a broad disciplinary spectrum. This strength is coupled with a singular drive for innovation that extends throughout the scientific process, from fundamental research to the creation of applied technology with positive economic impacts. Its commitment to innovation has been recognized in Japan and around the world. Now, Osaka University is leveraging its role as a Designated National University Corporation selected by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to contribute to innovation for human welfare, sustainable development of society, and social transformation.
Website: https://resou.osaka-u.ac.jp/en

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DOI

10.24651/oushinken.50.1_11 

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Are the Highly Sensitive Person at Work Likely to Feel Stressed and Empathetic?

 

Gendered bilingualism in post-colonial Korea

Japanese language learning brought prosperity and persecution for women in Korea

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Osaka Metropolitan University

In the 1960s, Japanese books became immensely popular in South Korea. Interestingly, Korean newspapers often wrote about this trend as if mainly women were interested in learning Japanese.

Osaka Metropolitan University Associate Professor Jinsuk Yang examined South Korean newspaper articles and other historical documents from the 1960s and 1970s to understand why Japanese language learning was often described as something women did, even though men were also learning Japanese. Additionally, Professor Yang studied how women’s ability to speak Japanese affected their lives during and after the time when Japan colonized Korea.

As a result, it was found that the Korean newspapers often focused on two groups of women learning Japanese: university students and workers in the entertainment industry. These articles stated that female university students were learning Japanese only to read novels, and women in the entertainment industry were learning it to talk to tourists. However, they didn’t say much about the men learning Japanese for work or study. Further, the ability to speak Japanese gave women new opportunities and ideas, which challenged traditional roles for women in Korea.

“This research helps us understand more about the relationship between language, gender, and national identity in Korea after Japanese colonial rule,” Professor Yang stated. “It can teach us about how countries and cultures influence each other, even after difficult historical periods. In the future, this kind of research might help us better understand the relationship between Japan and Korea today.”

Her findings were published in Asian Studies Review.

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About OMU 

Established in Osaka as one of the largest public universities in Japan, Osaka Metropolitan University is committed to shaping the future of society through “Convergence of Knowledge” and the promotion of world-class research. For more research news, visit https://www.omu.ac.jp/en/ and follow us on social media: X, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn.

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Journal

Asian Studies Review

DOI

10.1080/10357823.2024.2393726 

Method of Research

News article

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

The Gendered Construction of the Japanese Language-Learning Boom in Postcolonial Korea

 

High consumption of ultra-processed foods linked to accelerated biological aging

An Italian study by researchers at the I.R.C.C.S. Neuromed shows that people reporting a large dietary share of highly processed foods are biologically older

Istituto Neurologico Mediterraneo Neuromed I.R.C.C.S.

A study conducted by the Research Unit of Epidemiology and Prevention at the I.R.C.C.S. Neuromed in Pozzilli, in collaboration with the LUM University of Casamassima, shows that high consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with the acceleration of biological aging, regardless of the nutritional quality of the diet. The results were published in the prestigious journal The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.

Italia researchers analyzed data on over 22,000 participants from the Moli-sani Study, one of the largest population cohorts in Europe, and used over thirty different blood biomarkers to measure biological age. Unlike chronological age, that depends exclusively on the date of birth, biological age reflects the biological conditions of our body, including organs, tissues and systems, and can differ from the chronological age.

Using a detailed food frequency questionnaire, researchers were able to estimate participant’s consumption of ultra-processed foods, that is foods made in part or entirely with substances not routinely used in the kitchen (e.g., hydrolysed proteins, maltodextrins, hydrogenated fats), that generally contain various additives, such as dyes, preservatives, antioxidants, anticaking agents, flavour enhancers and sweeteners. Ultra-processed foods include not only packaged snacks or sugary drinks, but also apparently ‘harmless’ products such mass-produced or packaged bread, fruit yogurt, some breakfast cereals or meat alternatives, to give a few examples.

The study showed that a high consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with a significant acceleration of the biological aging of participants. Basically, people turned out to be biologically older than their actual chronological age.

Biological aging is in fact an “internal clock” of our body, which can tick faster or slower than the years marked on the calendar, reflecting the true state of health of the organism.

"Our data - says Simona Esposito, researcher at the Research Unit of Epidemiology and Prevention and first author of the study - show that a high consumption of ultra-processed foods not only has a negative impact on health in general, but could also accelerate aging itself, suggesting a connection that goes beyond the poor nutritional quality of these foods".

“The mechanisms through which ultra-processed foods can be harmful to human health are not yet entirely clear – explains researcher Marialaura Bonaccio, nutritional epidemiologist at the Research Unit of Epidemiology and Prevention-IRCCS Neuromed – Besides being nutritionally inadequate, being rich in sugars, salt and saturated or trans fats, these foods undergo intense industrial processing that actually alters their food matrix, with the consequent loss of nutrients and fiber. This can have important consequences for a series of physiological functions, including glucose metabolism, and the composition and functionality of the gut microbiota. Also, these products are often wrapped in plastic packaging, thus becoming vehicles of substances toxic to the body”.

“This study - adds Licia Iacoviello, director of the Research Unit of Epidemiology and Prevention at the IRCCS Neuromed and full professor of Hygiene at LUM in Casamassima - prompts us once again to reevaluate the current dietary recommendations, that should also include warnings on limiting the intake of ultra-processed food in our daily diet. Actually, some nutrient-dense packaged foods can be classified as ultra-processed, and this suggest the need of guiding people towards dietary choices that address also the degree of food processing”.

 

The Moli-sani Study

Started in March 2005, it involves about 25,000 citizens living in the Molise region. The aim is to learn about environmental and genetic factors underlying cardiovascular disease, cancer and degenerative pathologies. The Moli-sani Study, now based in the I.R.C.C.S. Neuromed, has transformed an entire Italian region in a large research lab.

 

The I.R.C.C.S. Neuromed

The Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (I.R.C.C.S.) Neuromed in Pozzilli (Italy) is a landmark, at Italian and international level, for research and therapy in the field of nervous system diseases. A centre in which doctors, researchers, staff and the patients themselves form an alliance aimed at ensuring the best level of service and cutting-edge treatments, guided by the most advanced scientific developments.

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Journal

American Journal of Clinical Nutrition

DOI

10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.10.006 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Ultra-processed food consumption is associated with the acceleration of biological aging in the Moli-sani Study

Article Publication Date

4-Nov-2024

 

Women's education influences fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

 

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Africa's fertility forecast by education

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Credit: © Source: Saroja Adhikari | MPIDR

How does education affect women's desire to have children? In a new study, researchers from IIASA, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), the University of Vienna and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, examined how women's education affects fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa.

The researchers developed a new method for forecasting education-specific fertility trends. The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), finds a strong empirical correlation between higher levels of female education and lower fertility rates.

“We developed a fertility forecasting model based on education levels that supports population planning and social development strategies. It gives a clear picture of fertility trends and enables more accurate predictions,” says IIASA alumna Saroja Adhikari, study lead author and postdoctoral researcher at MPIDR.

The specific innovation of this paper is to show that it is not only the education of the individual women that matters, but also the average education of the environment in which the women live. Higher average educational attainment is significantly correlated with lower ideal family size and lower actual fertility for women in each separate education category. This holds across a wide range of geographical and temporal contexts.

"Our study shows that educated women are leading the shift towards smaller family sizes in high-fertility communities, even influencing the choices of women with less education around them. This insight is now part of a new population forecasting model, giving policymakers better tools to understand how women’s education can shape future population trends and drive sustainable development across Africa," says IIASA alumnus Endale Kebede, a postdoctoral teaching and research associate at the University of Vienna and the Wittgenstein Centre, who is one of the study coauthors.

The research team used data from 138 demographic and health surveys conducted in 39 sub-Saharan African countries between 1986 and 2022. The model explicitly takes into account individual educational attainment and general educational background, without relying on subjective assumptions. The results are also highly relevant to climate change research, as forecasts based on education levels are increasingly used to assess societies' capacity to adapt to climate change.

Results reveal that education programs for women can play a key role in reducing fertility rates and thus helping to cope with rapid population growth in Africa. Improving women's education levels could therefore accelerate fertility decline and thus contribute to better population control and socio-economic development.

“While it's well known that educating women helps drive demographic change, this paper shows an added effect: women with less education often follow the behaviors and norms of more educated women in their community. The paper also uses this effect to create the first model for predicting fertility trends based on education levels,” emphasizes Wolfgang Lutz, study coauthor and IIASA Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar.

Adhikari reiterates that their results could significantly contribute to designing family planning programs and policies.

Adapted from a press release prepared by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

 

Reference:

Adhikari, S., Kebede, E., Lutz, W. (2024) Forecasting Africa's Fertility Decline by Female Education Groups PNAS DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2320247121

About IIASA:

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2320247121 

Article Title

Forecasting Africa’s fertility decline by female education groups

 

Three pathways to achieve global climate and sustainable development goals

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Sustainable lifestyles, green-tech innovation, and government-led transformation each offer promising routes to make significant progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), to which IIASA scientists contributed. Contrary to the belief that the path to sustainable development is increasingly out of reach, the results show that humankind has a variety of pathways to depart from its current unsustainable trajectory.

“Our analysis shows that all three sustainable development pathways are far more effective than our current ‘business as usual”, explains Bjoern Soergel, scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK and lead author of the study published in Environmental Research Letters. This is the essence of the 17 SDGs agreed by the United Nations in 2015. "Sustainable development pathways are strategies that prevent dangerous climate change while at the same time moving towards a world that allows people to prosper on a healthy planet.”

They drive substantial progress towards the SDGs, for example reducing the number of people in extreme poverty by two thirds until 2030 and to virtually zero in 2050. They also curb global warming and avert further degradation of the environment. Importantly, they also avoid the unintended side effects of simplistic climate protection strategies, such as relying heavily on bioenergy or carbon capture and storage without taking into account potential conflicts with food production or public acceptance.”

Three powerful ways to accelerate sustainable development

In the study, the scientists look at three possible pathways to achieve the 17 sustainable development goals used by governments, companies, and NGOs worldwide to guide action towards a sustainable and just future. The study is the first to systematically compare such different sustainable development pathways, analyzing results from four models, two integrated assessment models of the global energy, economy, land and climate system and two models focused on the global buildings and materials sectors, respectively.

“All scenarios we looked into share the same set of goals, but the question is how to get there,” explains Isabelle Weindl, PIK scientist and co-author of the study. She points out that all the pathways examined in the study stand out in their own way. “For example, the sustainable lifestyle pathway includes a rapid shift towards a flexitarian, but largely plant-based nutrition, which is known to also have substantial benefits for human health.” This pathway would further include a reduction of global final energy use per capita of around 40% by 2050, with wealthier countries contributing the largest share to decrease energy inequality. Such changes might pose challenges in terms of how realistic they are for people to adopt, the researchers point out. However, they would also come with large benefits, as Soergel adds: “The sustainable lifestyle pathway has the lowest reliance on unproven technologies and the most positive outcomes for biodiversity and climate protection.”

The other pathways foresee a more gradual change in diets and energy consumption, but assume more rapid innovation in green technologies or greater orchestration of system-wide changes by governments, which each comes with their own challenges. “Even though the pathways differ in what they emphasize, they all can deliver”, says Elmar Kriegler, Head of the research department Transformation Pathways at PIK and co-author of the study. “This is important because the path to sustainable development is often narrowed to individual worldviews, making it more difficult to find common ground to embark on this journey. ” He concludes: “If we stick to our current trajectory, none of the SDGs will be achieved. By 2030, 660 million people could still be living in extreme poverty, and environmental crises like biodiversity loss and global warming will only get worse. So it is clear we must act now. We can still choose which sustainable path to pursue, but ignoring them is no longer an option.”

“This is the first time we have quantified multidimensional sustainability scenarios that aim to achieve all the Sustainable Development Goals with multiple global modeling tools. They show that achieving these goals in parallel is a major challenge, but also that there are different strategies possible to achieving sustainability across multiple dimensions”, says Bas van Ruijven from IIASA. Alessio Mastrucci, Jarmo Kikstra, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave from IIASA also contributed.  

These scenarios show three different ways in which a more sustainable and equitable future can be achieved driven either by local communities, market forces, or global governance as main driving force.

The publication is accompanied by an interactive web tool for exploration, visualization and download of the scenario data. IIASA hosts the dataset for these scenarios.

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Journal

Environmental Research Letters

DOI

10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af 

Article Title

Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets

 

Nordic research team receives €13 million to explore medieval book culture 

The team i awarded an ERC Synergy Grant to investigate how books and literary networks shaped Northern Europe between 1000 and 1500 CE.   

The University of Bergen

 

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Tuomas Heikkilä, Åslaug Ommundsen, Lars Boje Mortensen and Matthew Collins have won an ERC Synergy Grant to explore medieval book culture in the CODICUM project.

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Credit: Åslaug Ommundsen

The CODICUM project brings together experts in history, literature, and bio-codicology from four Nordic universities to explore medieval knowledge networks. This groundbreaking study combines traditional humanities approaches with cutting-edge biomolecular analysis of fragments from medieval books, written on animal skin.  

How book culture shaped medieval Europe  

The project will investigate approximately 50,000 medieval Latin book fragments preserved in Nordic collections—one of Europe’s largest archives of medieval book culture.   

"These fragments represent an extraordinary treasure trove that can transform our understanding of how books and ideas circulated in medieval Europe," Professor Åslaug Ommundsen says.  "With this funding we will be able to lift fragment studies to a new level and dramatically increase our knowledge about medieval books and how the Nordic region became part of a pan-european book culture."   

Medieval books played a vital role in shaping European history, carrying rituals, stories, and ideas as they were read, copied, and shared across regions. Today, they offer scholars insights into historical trade, craftsmanship, and the religious, social, and intellectual networks that connected Europe. Less than 10% of the European manuscript corpus survives, with an even smaller fraction in Scandinavia.    

How binding materials accidentally saved thousands of medieval books  

"While most medieval manuscripts in the Nordic countries were destroyed or lost after the Reformation, their leaves were often recycled as binding material for administrative documents. This practice accidentally preserved evidence of thousands of books, most of them Latin books used in churches, and often originating from other parts of Europe," Professor Ommundsen says.   

A unique feature of this project is the use of new techniques to trace the geographic origins of manuscript materials and identify previously unknown connections between religious and intellectual centres.   

Combining classic humanities with cutting-edge biomolecular analysis  

"Using biomolecular methods, we can now extract DNA and protein information from parchment to determine where animals were raised and how manuscripts were produced," Professor Matthew Collins says.    

"The fragments are challenging us to rethink how we define 'textual heritage'. Rather than belonging to individual nations, these manuscripts reveal a shared European literary heritage that transcended medieval borders,” says Professor Lars Boje Mortensen.  

"By analysing both the texts and materials of these fragments, we hope to unlock a new understanding of how Northern Europe was integrated into broader European intellectual culture," adds  Professor Tuomas Heikkilä.  

The CODICUM project

The Medieval Book and Networks of Northern Europe c. 1000-1500: Texts, Crafts, Fragments (CODICUM)

Principal investigators:

Professor Åslaug Ommundsen, University of Bergen - Palaeography
Professor Tuomas Heikkilä, University of Helsinki - History  
Professor Lars Boje Mortensen, University of Southern Denmark - Literature
Professor Matthew Collins, University of Copenhagen - Bio-codicology   
The National Archives in Stockholm and the Royal Library in Copenhagen, are also partners in the project.   

Funding: ERC Synergy Grant, around 13 million euro, for 2025-2030, announced by the ERC today.