China, US must join hands for a prosperous world

chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2024-11-08 

The world has massive problems, and it's incumbent to call upon the United States and China to cooperate and to address pressing global needs, said Mario Cavolo, an American writer living in China and non-resident senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in a recent interview with China Daily.

As an American who has lived in China for 25 years, Cavolo said he is deeply impressed by China’s achievements over the years.

Cavolo said he believes that a peaceful and friendly diplomatic approach can help China and the US move forward together, ensuring a more prosperous global future.

PROFANING THE HOLY

India’s Hindus bathe in holy river defiled by pollution

AFP 

Published November 7, 2024 
Sweeping aside thick toxic scum, thousands of Hindu devotees ignored court warnings Thursday against bathing in the sacred but sewage-filled Yamuna river, a grim display of environmental degradation in India’s capital.

Thousands celebrated the festival of Chhath Puja for the Hindu sun god Surya, entering the stinking waters to pray as the evening rays set in the sky.

A parliamentary report in February called the Yamuna “more of a toxic waterway than a river”, saying the foam clouds were formed from a potent chemical soup including laundry detergent and phosphates from fertilisers.

“Please understand you will fall sick”, a high court order said on Wednesday, Indian media reported, restricting ritual bathing on health grounds. “We can’t allow you to go into the water.”
But housewife Krishnawati Devi, 45, said she was not worried.

“I believe the waters of the river are pure and blessed by the sun god himself,” she said. “Nothing will happen to me — god will take care of everything.”

A Hindu devotee wears vermilion as she prays in an artificial pond near the banks of river Yamuna on the occasion of the Hindu festival of ‘Chhath Puja’ in New Delhi on November 7. — AFP

Hindu faithful ignored the order, with women wrapped in fine saris and heavy jewellery wading into the grey waters.

White foam swirled around their feet. In places, it was so thick it looked like the river had frozen.

“Chhath is a festival of unflinching faith”, said Avinash Kumar, 58, a government office worker.

“We can also offer prayers at home but it doesn’t feel the same as praying in the river.”

Others thumped drums and sang.
‘Toxi-city’

New Delhi’s authorities have poured in anti-foaming agents to disperse the froth, and used nets to sweep the scum away — but it has done nothing to clean the fetid water itself.

“It stinks, but it’s ok,” said 14-year-old schoolgirl Deepa Kumari. “What is important is that we get to celebrate in the river with our people.”

Rituals in the days-long festival culminate at dawn on Friday.

“I don’t bother about the pollution”, said Pooja Prasad, 20, a student.

“The mother goddess will take care of all our troubles”, she added.

The sprawling megacity of some 30 million people is also smothered in poisonous smog — fuelled by burning crop fields and vehicle exhaust fumes.

Levels of fine particulate matter — dangerous microparticles known as PM2.5 pollutants that enter the bloodstream through the lungs — have this week surged beyond 50 times the World Health Organization recommended daily maximum.

“Toxi-city”, broadcasters dubbed the capital.
‘Filth’

City authorities have declared repeated efforts to clean the river.

From an icy source of a Himalayan glacier, the Yamuna feeds into the mighty Ganges, flowing more than 3,100 kilometres to the sea in the Bay of Bengal.

But barely 400 kilometres into that journey, the water passing New Delhi is already effectively dead.

The parliamentary report warned of an “excessive presence of heavy metals” and cancer-causing pollutants ranging from arsenic to zinc, from everything from batteries to pesticides.

“Contamination… transform it into a carrier of untreated industrial waste, garbage, agricultural run-off and municipal waste,” the report read.

“This has a profound effect on the well-being of the people”.

Hindu devotees offer prayers in an artificial pond near the banks of river Yamuna on the occasion of the Hindu festival of ‘Chhath Puja’ in New Delhi on November 7. — AFP

Government statistics say 80 per cent of the pollution load is raw sewage, far exceeding permissible levels for bathing.

Some of the faithful have traditionally drunk the water.

Levels fluctuate, but in one spot in 2021 in south Delhi, faecal bacteria levels exceeded maximum health regulations by 8,800 times.

But many say they are frustrated at the situation.

“The river is sacred to us, but all the filth from the industrial belt nearby is being pumped into it,” added Kumar.

“Every year they say they are going to clean it, but nothing ever happens.”

COP29

Negotiating climate finance

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh

Published November 7, 2024 

DAWN



THE history of fossil fuel industry has come full circle. The climate summit begins on Nov 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, which was one of the first major centres of commercial oil extraction during the Industrial Revolution. Nobel Prize founder Alfred Nobel and his brothers made their money by establishing Branobel, which became one of the largest oil producers in Baku. It introduced several technological innovations including the first oil pipeline in Russia, and railway and commercial shipping lines to facilitate oil transportation. Climate leaders from across the world will congregate in Baku at COP29 to agree on global financial targets and to tackle the ever-increasing ecological footprint of the Nobel brothers’ technological innovations.

A complex agenda awaits Pakistan’s delegation at the upcoming climate summit. It is structured around two main pillars, both central to Pakistan’s climate resilience and economic development: first, enhancing ambition with an emphasis on deep, rapid, and sustained emission reductions to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius; second, enabling action by mobilising the finances necessary for reducing climate emissions, adaptation, and addressing loss and damage.

Both pillars are mutually reinforcing, and progress in one supports advancements in the other. COP29 is an opportunity to showcase how Pakistan is setting high-ambition climate targets and where and how we can become a destination for international climate finance. Our climate challenges are spread over a diverse ecosystem that can potentially offer a wide range of opportunities to pilot innovative climate solutions.

The main components of how COP29 plans to tackle climate finance include: i) the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, ii) enhanced commitments from countries through updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and iii) the operationalisation of effective mechanisms for the Loss & Damage Fund (LDF). All three have particular significance for Pakistan.


A complex agenda awaits Pakistan’s delegation at the upcoming climate summit.

The NCQG will help create a new financial goal for evolving global financial needs. India and some other countries want an annual mobilisation target of $1 trillion, compared to a commitment of $100 billion per year, initially set for 2020. Some studies have projected even higher estimates at $5.8tr to $13.6tr by 2030. Developed countries are not inclined to commit to financial contributions that are obligatory, predictable, and accessible, let alone such large sums. Nor have they agreed to link NCQG with the LDF, as argued by Pakistan’s stalwart ambassador, Nabeel Munir as head of the all-important Subsidiary Body for Implementation.

The ask from the developing countries is desperate: at least 50 per cent of climate finance should shift from loans to grants to alleviate debt burdens. And for this, they seek balanced funding across the board for adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage. In a nutshell, the biggest challenge for the Baku summit is to finalise the NCQG for the post-2025 period. Without this building block, the targets of NDCs can hardly be enhanced, nor can LDF be scaled up. The submission of the revised NDCs is due in February 2025.

The NCQG framework has expanded to include nontraditional donor countries, including some of Pakistan’s Arab friends. Several additional challenging financial instruments are also being discussed, including debt swaps, blended finance, green bonds, payment for environmental services, special drawing rights, policy-based guarantees, and carbon-pricing mechanisms. Each new source of financing will entail new complexities and conditionalities. Most importantly, this menu underlines the need for institutional readiness, legal reforms, and engagement with the private sector.

Pakistan actively engaged on the NCQG during COP28 and several UNFCCC meetings since then, advocating for a comprehensive approach that integrates social concerns, particularly emphasising the need for developed nations to take greater responsibility in providing financial support for adaptation efforts. Pakistan’s pivotal role in operationalising the LDF helped secure pledges amounting to $792 million. Following this success, it advocated for the integration of loss and damage considerations into broader climate finance frameworks, including the NCQG.

Pakistan’s significant role in shaping the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement’s implementation and in the Mitigation Work Programme has significantly influenced its approach to the NCQG. Through its integrative approach, Pakistan seeks funding mechanisms that are responsive to immediate resilience needs, emphasises grant-based resources, and integrates long-term considerations for loss and damage. The LDF’s operationalisation is seen by Pakistan as a crucial step towards achieving equitable climate finance that aligns with the objectives of the NCQG.

Pakistan’s role in operationalising the LDF has positioned it as an important actor, allowing it to collaborate within various groupings such as the G77 and China. This collaboration strengthens the collective bargaining power in negotiations related to both LDF funding and the NCQG, and collaboration with other developing countries from Bermuda to the Philippines.

Looking ahead, Pakistan will engage in ongoing discussions at COP29 and beyond, ensuring that any financial goals set are realistic and reflective of desperate needs.

Finally, the COP29 presidency will launch the Climate Finance Action Fund. Ironically, it will be capitalised by voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies. The fund’s aim is enticing: catalyse investments across mitigation, adaptation, and research and development initiatives. The CFAF has announced allocating 50pc of its capital towards climate projects in developing nations, with an emphasis on supporting their next generation of NDCs. It’s still unclear who from Pakistan will engage on CFAF, particularly since it is expected to provide rapid response funding for climate-triggered disasters affecting vulnerable communities.

It is encouraging to see a growing interest in Pakistan for participation in COP29, shown by several provincial governments, private sector, financial institutions, and civil society. How would Pakistan’s contingent engage with the international community to help finalise the NCQG Framework, get specific figures agreed for increased financial commitments, strengthen mechanisms for fund distribution, and enhanced monitoring and accountability? The challenge for the delegates is to meaningfully and coherently engage with the future architecture of international climate finance.

The writer is an Islamabad-based climate change and sustainable development expert.

Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2024

Developing world faces multi-billion climate adaptation cash gap, UN report says

Reuters 

Published November 7, 2024 

The amount of finance provided to developing countries to help them adapt to the impacts of climate change is far short of the $359 billion a year needed even after the biggest annual increase yet, a UN report on Thursday showed.

Funding from the developed world hit $28 billion in 2022 after a $6 billion rise, the most in any one year since the UN Paris deal in 2015 to try and limit the impacts of global warming, the annual UN Environment Programme report said.

Countries are preparing to meet in Azerbaijan at COP29 from November 11 to 22 for the next round of climate talks in a year marked by extreme weather aggravated by climate change, including floods in Bangladesh and drought in Brazil.

How much money richer countries agree to send to developing countries to help them cope is expected to be central to the talks in Baku.

“Climate change is already devastating communities across the world, particularly the most poor and vulnerable. Raging storms are flattening homes, wildfires are wiping out forests, and land degradation and drought are degrading landscapes,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a statement.

“Without action, this is a preview of what our future holds and why there simply is no excuse for the world not to get serious about adaptation, now.”

Adaptation finance covers activities including building flood defences against rising sea levels, planting trees in urban areas to protect against extreme heat and ensuring infrastructure can withstand hurricanes.

In addition to the finance, countries need guidance on how to use it.

While 171 countries have a policy, strategy or plan in place, the quality varies, and a small number of fragile or conflict-affected states have none, the report said.

A separate UN report last month said the world was on track to exceed its goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average by 2050, and instead head for warming of 2.6-3.1C.

Climate realities

LAHORE AIR POLLUTION

DAWN
Editorial

November 8, 2024 


THE Air Quality Index in Lahore once again shot past the 1,000-level mark on Wednesday morning, registering at an eye-watering 1,165. The suffocating pall that has descended over the city, and also wide swathes of the province, has forced the Punjab government to announce a slew of new measures to contain its harmful, potentially life-threatening effects. Among these measures are a bar on heavy traffic in the provincial capital till January 2025, the mandatory wearing of masks, closure of educational institutions till Nov 17, and enforcement of work-from-home for half the workforce in government and private institutions. Of course, each measure will incur immense direct and indirect costs, not just for the government but also for the people. Climate activists had long warned of such consequences when they had been cautioning against unchecked industrialisation and urbanisation, a culture of wanton consumption, and our authorities’ lack of regard for the climate impact of their beloved ‘development’ projects. Alas, here we are now, with our largest province now choking on its own toxic fumes, struggling to breathe.

The Punjab government under Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz has already tried and failed to implement a new, more ‘thorough’ strategy to deal with smog. According to the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative, PM2.5 pollution, which causes the most damage to health, is up 25pc in 2024 compared to 2023; general pollution levels are also up by 23pc. Experts have already written off the band-aid measures taken by the administration, pointing out that ‘green lockdowns’ and declaring a ‘climate calamity’ will not help. It should, therefore, return to the drawing board and use the learnings from this year to plan ahead. The solution may be to enforce stricter controls to regulate heavy polluters, especially personal vehicles. Instead, public transport must be encouraged and existing facilities expanded so that people have access to options that do not cause as much environmental harm. Similarly, heavy traffic and high-emission industries must be moved away from population centres as quickly as possible. Lastly, while the CM has said she will talk to her counterpart in Indian Punjab to tackle the smog issue, she must also talk to her counterparts here in Pakistan. The prime minister, too, must take note. The climate crisis is a national issue, not just a provincial one.

Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2024

IHK resolution

KASHMIR IS INDIA'S GAZA

DAWN
Editorial

November 8, 2024 

IF the Indian state is serious about its democratic credentials, then it should listen to the voices emanating from held Kashmir’s legislature calling for a restoration of the region’s special status.

On Wednesday, IHK’s assembly, which was elected last month after a decade, passed a non-binding resolution calling for the safeguarding of the disputed territory’s “identity, culture and rights”.

Though the resolution, piloted by the pro-India National Conference, which now rules IHK in a coalition with Congress, made no explicit reference to Article 370, the message to Delhi was clear. “The assembly has done its job,” said Omar Abdullah, IHK’s chief minister. Mr Abdullah had during the election campaign pledged to restore Article 370, discarded by India in August 2019, as well as the held region’s statehood.

Last month’s election results, as well as the recently passed resolution, clearly show that the people of held Kashmir are not happy with New Delhi’s snatching of their limited autonomy, and want India to reverse these dubious moves. The Indian prime minister has said statehood would be restored, though other members of his cabinet have said Article 370 is ‘done’ and ‘dead’.

While statehood, and the unity of held Kashmir — India has broken up IHK into two union territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh — are important, the special status granted to the disputed territory under Articles 370 and 35A must also be restored. If most of India’s north-eastern states can continue to have a special constitutional status, to protect their culture and diversity, why is the BJP-led government being so rigid when it comes to occupied Kashmir?

Post-Aug 2019, there has been a conscious effort to change IHK’s demographic profile, and obliterate its unique identity. That is why nearly all political forces there — from pro-independence parties to those in New Delhi’s good books — are united in their demand for a restoration of the held territory’s special status.

Along with meeting a key demand of the Kashmiri people, reinstating the aforesaid articles would also help improve India’s ties with Pakistan. After the Modi government made its controversial move to strip IHK of its unique status, bilateral ties quickly nosedived. Therefore, if the BJP administration were to shed its rigidity on the matter and listen to the Kashmiris, it could pave the way for the resumption of the political process in IHK, along with removing a key obstacle in improving ties with Pakistan.

Hardliners in New Delhi may be telling themselves that the Kashmir question has been resolved, but the reality suggests otherwise. The IHK assembly resolution, in fact, offers New Delhi a face-saving option to restore Kashmir’s autonomy, as the administration can say it is only responding to popular demand. Should India choose to ignore this demand, disaffection in IHK will only increase.

Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2024

Which ideology?

Aasim Sajjad Akhtar

Published November 8, 2024 

DAWN

OF all the congratulatory messages which poured in from the world’s political leaders when it became clear that Donald Trump had, in the end, quite comfortably defeated Kamala Harris in the US presidential election, the tweet by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari stood out. The young scion of the PPP called Trump’s victory an anti-war vote, reflecting the desire of the US electorate for global peace.

The reference was obviously to Palestine and the ongoing Israeli genocide which has been backed unflinchingly by the Biden-Harris administration. But Trump did not win because he is anti-war. Some voters may have punished Harris over Palestine, but the Democratic Party’s failings extend beyond foreign wars. Bilawal’s pleasantries about a peaceful future for the world were also hyperbole because Trump is anything but a man of peace.

The real quandary is making sense of how Bilawal, who claims to be ‘progressive’, is making common cause with an arch-conservative in Trump.

Let there be no mistake: Trump is not about to dismantle the huge military-industrial complex that undergirds US imperialist power across the world. Among other things, Trump is firmly committed to Zionism, and is unmistakably anti-China.

But it is also not to be understated that Trump has spouted consistent rhetoric about unnecessary spending on wars abroad — his slogan of ‘Make America Great Again’ reflects a relatively insular vision involving less war-making around the world, blocking immigration, and generating industrial jobs by rolling back outsourcing and offshoring.


The far right is tapping into the rage of working people.

The far right thrives on slogans, of course. Trump did not do a lot of things he had claimed he would during his first term. But this is all the more reason for us to think about why certain slogans continue to garner him — and many other similar political leaders — the support that they do. The fact that a far-right Republican leader is able and willing to call for a rollback of America’s foreign wars is an indicator of how muddled the contemporary ideological landscape has become.

Ideological confusion is reaching fever pitch in this country too. Look no further than Bilawal and the PPP — a leader and party that still claims, every once so often, to be committed to leftist ideals. When election season rolls around, the slogan ‘roti, kapra aur makan’ magically reappears. Even the word ‘socialism’ sometimes drips off the tongue of PPP leaders. The party also burnishes its other ‘progressive’ credentials like its opposition to the weaponisation of religion and its unparalleled commitment to democracy.

But these claims have virtually no connection to the PPP’s actual politics. At present, the PPP and PML-N are competing to prove their loyalty to the military establishment. The PPP runs the Balochistan government which is presiding over the continuing brutalisation of Baloch youth. A few weeks ago, the Sindh government ordered a violent crackdown against progressives who were protesting the mob lynching of a doctor in Umerkot, Sindh. Earlier, Ali Wazir — who is now doing rounds in Punjab’s jails — spent months incarcerated under the watch of the Sindh government. And as far as Pakistan’s internal class war is concerned, the PPP makes no bones about the fact that it is far more committed to the IMF, big landed families, real estate moguls and other profiteers than it is to the proverbial worker and peasant.

Let’s take this analogy back to America. The preliminary details about who voted for Trump and Harris are remarkable insofar as they confirm that the Democratic Party — with its co-mparatively pro-labour history — has largely abandoned the working class, the latter voting in significant numbers for Trump. Even non-white Latino and Black working peo-ple rejected the Democratic Party des-pite Trump’s persistent anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Once upon a time, to be on the left meant to oppose unbridled capitalist profiteering, imperialist wars and to stand with the lower orders of society. Today, it is the far right that is rhetorically aligning itself with such positions, and successfully tapping into the rage of working people by peddling hate. Meanwhile, the historic social-democratic parties who could once claim to represent the class rage of the lower orders are left only to appeal to a vacuous identity politics and lament the racism and misogyny of the right.

Is there still the possibility of an ideological politics of a left-progressive vintage that reclaims class and imperialism from the hatemongers while also offering meaningful horizons on other pressing matters like the ecological crisis? We must hold out the hope that there is, but such a politics will only crystallise when the so-called ‘pro­­gressive’ old guard is exposed and displaced by genuinely anti-establishment forces.

The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2024

First impact: Trump, re-election and the Mexican economy

By Dr. Tim Sandle
November 7, 2024
DIGITAL JOURNAL 

Donald Trump has floated broad tariffs alongside high rates on autos from Mexico and levies to stop fentanyl from entering the country - Copyright AFP Anthony WALLACE

To the amazement and shock, of many people outside of the U.S., Donald Trump is heading back to the White House. This defied opinion polls and ran contrary to what could conceivably happen within other democratic systems.

Now the dust is beginning to settle, thoughts turn to ‘what will happen next?’ as well as the ramifications for the relationship between the U.S. and other countries. This includes the less financially salubrious neighbour Mexico.

To gain an understanding upon the Mexican economy, Digital Journal heard from Quasar Elizundia, Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

Elizundia opens by considering the significance of the election: “The re-election of Donald Trump has sparked serious concerns about the future of the Mexican economy. After the results were announced, the Mexican peso depreciated significantly, falling to its lowest level in two years, underscoring Mexico’s economic vulnerability in the face of trade uncertainty with the United States.”

Expanding on what this means, Elizundia continues: “This decline highlights the peso’s fragility amid Trump’s protectionist policies and the risk of potential renegotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).”

The economic system will become more fragile based on rumours as to the first wave of policies likely to come out of the Trump Whitehouse: “Speculations about the imposition of new tariffs or an early review of the USMCA concern analysts, who fear that the manufacturing and automotive sectors—pillars of the Mexican economy—could be affected by rising export costs.”

There are other economic factors to consider, observes Elizundia : “The strength of the dollar has also pressured oil prices, directly impacting Mexico’s oil revenues, a crucial source for the country’s fiscal balance. If these conditions persist, we may see a rapid deterioration in the fiscal and trade balances, which could increase pressure on the peso and limit economic growth prospects.”

Inward investment from other nations could also be affected, Elizundia warns: “In this context, foreign investment is also facing significant risks. The recent decline in gross fixed investment and delays in public project execution exacerbate the outlook, as many investors may opt to redirect their resources to markets with greater political and economic stability.”

Social policy will also hurt the economy, Elizundia explains: “ Additionally, the Trump administration could adopt measures affecting remittances and heighten migration tensions, which would have a direct impact on millions of Mexican families reliant on these flows.”

Elizundia concludes, noting: “Markets remain cautious, with analysts warning that the current environment could trigger a period of high volatility for the Mexican peso and the broader economy. If uncertainty continues, 2025 could become a challenging year for Mexico, as the economy struggles to grow in an increasingly challenging context, both internally and externally.”

Trump rides global wave of

 anti-incumbency

By AFP
November 7, 2024

Republican Donald Trump won the US election to take back power from the incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden 

- Copyright AFP/File SAUL LOEB

Shaun TANDON

Incumbent leaders used to have the edge. In the United States, the power of the Oval Office and glamour of Air Force One once made presidents the prohibitive favorites to win reelection.

With Donald Trump’s defeat of Kamala Harris, Republican and Democratic presidents will alternate control of the White House for the fourth straight term, a level of volatility between the parties not seen in the United States since the late 19th century.

Anti-incumbency fervor has swept not just the United States but other major democracies, battering both the left and the right.

Britain’s Labour swept out Conservative rule in July, self-professed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei triumphed in Argentina last November, and incumbent parties, some long-dominant, lost ground this year in countries as diverse as India, Japan, South Africa and South Korea.

There are exceptions — with Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico’s ruling left-wing populists elected president in June — but the anti-incumbency wave has defied traditional political trends.

Under outgoing President Joe Biden, US economic growth has topped the developed world, despite high inflation, and the country has no troops in active combat, factors that led respected political scientists to predict victory for Vice President Harris.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre pointed to the global trend as she explained the defeat and pointed to the aftereffects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“What we saw two nights ago was not unusual to what we have seen from the incumbencies around the world on the global stage,” she said Thursday.

The whiplash has wide-ranging effects on US policy and diplomacy.

Trump is expected again to pull the United States out of international commitments on climate change and to take a harsher approach with European allies, and he may work to undo signature Democratic domestic measures including on health care and the environment.

– Disapproval the new normal –

Trump won despite never once topping 50 percent approval in his 2017-2021 term — the first time in Gallup polling since it began such ratings after World War II.

Biden enjoyed majority support only at the start of his term, with approval tumbling after the chaotic August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, even as the pandemic eased.

Economic statistics, of course, do not mirror what ordinary voters feel, and every election also needs to factor in more abstract points such as candidates’ personal charisma.

John V. Kane, a political scientist at New York University, said there was an increasingly smaller share of persuadable voters than in the 20th century, when presidents sometimes would win by 10 or 20 percentage points.

Voters still “tend to think presidents should be afforded two terms so long as the economic, social and international conditions are fairly normal,” he said.

“And herein lies the challenge: the past five years have been anything but normal in these respects. The pandemic and subsequent shock to the economy in 2020 very likely turned incumbency from an asset into a liability,” Kane said.

“Swing voters may not know the best policies, if any, to fix the situation, but one thing they can be certain about is that they want the situation to change.”

– Democracy ‘pendulum’ –

Todd Belt, a political scientist at George Washington University, pointed to Covid and inflation but also the fragmentation of media sources, with voters turning to partisan outlets that fuel animosity toward incumbents.

“There are a lot of things in the world that are beyond the control of the president, but the president has to take credit or blame for all of them, and that makes things difficult,” Belt said.

“We’ve reached sort of a pendulum aspect of democracy, because people are paying so much more attention to what’s going on now, and people’s patience is lessened for the incumbent party.”

Kane noted that incumbents still won overwhelmingly in the US Congress, and he expected future presidents to enjoy an incumbency advantage in more stable times.

“If, however, the ‘new normal’ for the US economy is lackluster growth, high prices, etc., then swing voters may very well just perpetually keep trying their luck with the other party every four years,” Kane said.

'Not good enough anymore': Union leader says Dems lost crucial argument to Trump

Carl Gibson, AlterNet
November 7, 2024 

The consensus among pollsters is that President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 election was largely due to voters trusting him more on economic issues. One union leader who campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris is now weighing in on why he thinks Harris failed to convince voters that she was best suited to oversee the economy.
(Photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

The consensus among pollsters is that President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 election was largely due to voters trusting him more on economic issues. One union leader who campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris is now weighing in on why he thinks Harris failed to convince voters that she was best suited to oversee the economy.

In a thread posted to X (formerly Twitter), Jimmy Williams — who is general president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT) — lamented that a second Trump term would be "disastrous for my members." He wrote that he traveled across multiple Rust Belt states lobbying his union's 140,000-plus members to get behind Harris in the months before Election Day, and got a keen understanding of why her message failed to penetrate to blue-collar workers.

"VP Harris got a stronger percentage of union voters this election than President Biden did in 2020. But she still lost!" Williams wrote. "That’s because the Democratic Party has continued to fail to prioritize a strong, working class message that addressed issues that really matter to workers. The party did not make a positive case for why workers should vote for them, only that they were not Donald Trump."

"That’s not good enough anymore! Rather than offer a positive agenda on what immigrant workers bring to our country, they bought into the punitive, 'tough,' anti-worker messaging that is championed by Trump, even though we know it’s the bosses’ fault," he continued.

As Williams pointed out, Harris' failed gambit to bring moderate Republicans into the Democratic Party "big tent" partially relied on her outspoken support of the conservative immigration reform bill that failed to pass through the U.S. Senate in 2023. The bill's chief author, Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma), celebrated it as "by far the most conservative border security bill in four decades." Had it passed, it would have severely restricted the asylum application process and allowed the president to shut down the border to all migrants if illegal border crossings passed a set threshold each week.

Meanwhile, income inequality soared under the Biden administration, even as real (inflation-adjusted) wages for American workers continued to outpace price increases, inflation steadily fell back to 2021 levels and interest rates leveled off. In These Times reported in March that the United States' 737 billionaires saw their own individual net worths soar from $2.58 trillion to more than $5.529 trillion over the last four years. But for ordinary Americans, median household income didn't recover to pre-Covid levels until September of 2024.

In his thread, Williams tweeted that workers' frustration with high prices erasing wage gains persisted, and that Democrats didn't do themselves any favors by downplaying Americans' economic concerns during Biden's tenure in the White House.

"[Democrats] failed to address inflation, saying that it wasn’t a big issue or that the pain that working people feel right now isn’t real," Williams tweeted. "So while we were able to get many of our members out to vote for VP Harris, many other workers went with Trump."

The problem may ultimately be with messaging: While Williams argued that Democrats "failed to address inflation," Biden publicly celebrated every time inflation rates dropped, including when he accomplished what's known as a "soft landing" in which high inflation returns to normal levels without a corresponding spike in unemployment rates. In August — after he had already dropped out of the 2024 race — Biden chided the White House press pool for not properly informing Americans that his economic agenda was delivering tangible results.

"I told you we were gonna have a soft landing," Biden said at the time. "My policies are working. Start writing that way, OK?"

"Trump was able to build a stronger coalition of voters and may very well wind up with a Republican trifecta. This will be disastrous for my members," Williams concluded in his thread. "Working people deserve a party that understands this, one that puts them first and places their issues front and center."


Click here to read Williams' full thread on X.

What Trump 2.0 would mean for trade, migrants, climate change and electric cars

From trade policy, climate change, wars, EVs, Americans' taxes and illegal immigration, there is a lot that could change under the billionaire president of US.

Reuters 

Published November 6, 2024

A Donald Trump presidential election victory would have huge implications for US trade policy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans’ taxes and illegal immigration.

While some of his proposals would require congressional approval, here is a summary of the policies he has said he would pursue in his second four-year term in office:
More tariffs

Trump has floated the idea of a 10 per cent or more tariff on all goods imported into the US, a move he says would eliminate the trade deficit. But critics say it would lead to higher prices for American consumers and global economic instability.

He has also said he should have the authority to set higher tariffs on countries that have put tariffs on US imports. He has threatened to impose a 200pc tariff on some imported cars, saying he is determined in particular to keep cars from Mexico from coming into the country.

But he has also suggested that allies such as the European Union could see higher duties on their goods.

Trump has targeted China in particular. He proposes phasing out Chinese imports of goods such as electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals over four years. He seeks to prohibit Chinese companies from owning US real estate and infrastructure in the energy and tech sectors.

Trump has said “tariff” is his favorite word and views them as revenue generators that would help fill government coffers.

Mass deportations

Trump has vowed to reinstate his first-term policies targeting illegal border crossings and to forge ahead with sweeping new restrictions.

He has pledged to limit access to asylum at the US-Mexico border and to embark on the biggest deportation effort in American history, which would likely trigger legal challenges and opposition from Democrats in Congress.

He has said he will employ the National Guard, and, if necessary, federal troops, to achieve his objective, and he has not ruled out setting up internment camps to process people for deportation.

Trump has said he would seek to end automatic citizenship for children born to immigrants, a move that would run against the long-running interpretation of the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment.

He has also suggested he would revoke protected legal status for some populations such as Haitians or Venezuelans.

Trump says he will reinstitute the so-called “travel ban” that restricts entry into the United States of people from a list of largely Muslim-dominant countries, which sparked multiple legal battles during his first term.

Drilling away

Trump has vowed to increase US production of fossil fuels by easing the permitting process for drilling on federal land and would encourage new natural gas pipelines. He has said he would reauthorise oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

Whether the oil industry follows through and raises production at a time when oil and gas prices are relatively low remains to be seen.

He has said he will again pull the United States out of the Paris Climate Accords, a framework for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, and would support increased nuclear energy production.

He would also roll back Democratic President Joe Biden’s electric-vehicle mandates and other policies aimed at reducing auto emissions.

He has argued that the US needs to be able to boost energy production to be competitive in developing artificial intelligence systems, which consume large amounts of power.

Tax relief

Along with his trade and energy agendas, Trump has promised to slash federal regulations that he says limit job creation. He has pledged to keep in place a broad 2017 tax cut that he signed while in office, and his economic team has discussed a further round of individual and corporate tax cuts beyond those enacted in his first term.

Trump has pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21pc to 15pc for companies that make their products in the US.

He has said he would seek legislation to end the taxation of tips and overtime wages to aid waiters and other service workers. He has pledged not to tax or cut Social Security benefits.

Trump also has said that as president he would pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates — but would stop short of demanding it.

Most, if not all, of his tax proposals would require congressional action. Budget analysts have warned that the bevy of tax cuts would balloon the federal debt.

Doing away with diversity programs

Trump has pledged to require US colleges and universities to “defend American tradition and Western civilisation” and to purge them of diversity programs. He said he would direct the Justice Department to pursue civil rights cases against schools that engage in racial discrimination.

At K-12 schools, Trump would support programs allowing parents to use public funds for private or religious instruction.

Trump also wants to abolish the federal Department of Education, and leave states in control of schooling.

No federal abortion ban

Trump appointed three justices to the US Supreme Court who were part of the majority that did away with Roe v. Wade’s constitutional protection for abortion. He likely would continue to appoint federal judges who would uphold abortion limits.

At the same time, he has said a federal abortion ban is unnecessary and that the issue should be resolved at the state level. He has argued that a six-week ban favored by some Republicans is overly harsh and that any legislation should include exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother.

Trump has suggested he would not seek to limit access to the abortion drug mifepristone after the US Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the government’s approach to regulating it.

He supports policies that advance in vitro fertilization (IVF), birth control and prenatal care.

A push to end wars

Trump has been critical of US support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, and has said he could end the war in 24 hours if elected — although he has not said how he would achieve this. He has suggested Ukraine may have to yield some of its territory if a peace deal is to be struck, an idea Ukraine has consistently rejected.

Trump has also said that under his presidency the US would fundamentally rethink “Nato’s purpose and Nato’s mission.”

He has backed Israel in its fight against Hamas in Gaza but has urged it to wrap up its offensive. Trump can be expected to continue the Biden administration’s policy of arming Israel.

At the same time, he is likely to push for historic normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an effort he made during his 2017-2021 presidency and which Biden has also pursued.

Trump has said if he becomes president, he will “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon,” but has not said how he will achieve that.

He has suggested building an “iron dome” — a massive missile-defense shield similar to Israel’s — over the entire continental United States.

Trump has also floated sending armed forces into Mexico to battle drug cartels and using the US Navy to form a blockade of that country to stop the smuggling of fentanyl and its precursors.

Investigating enemies, aiding allies

Trump has pledged at times to use federal law enforcement agencies to investigate his political foes, including election officials, lawyers and party donors.

Along that line, Trump has said he will consider appointing a special prosecutor to probe Biden, though he has not specified the grounds for such an investigation.

And he has said he would consider firing a US attorney who did not follow his directives — which would constitute a break with the longstanding US policy of an independent federal law enforcement apparatus.

Trump has said he will consider pardoning all of those who have been convicted of crimes in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

In addition to criminal investigations, he has suggested using the government’s regulatory powers to punish those he views as critics, such as television networks.

Purging the federal bureaucracy

Trump would seek to decimate what he terms the “deep state” – career federal employees he says are clandestinely pursuing their own agendas – through an executive order that would reclassify thousands of workers to enable them to be fired. That would likely be challenged in court.

He would set up an independent government efficiency panel headed by billionaire supporter Elon Musk to root out waste in the federal government. He has not detailed how the body would function. The government already has watchdogs such as the Office of Management and Budget, and investigators general at federal agencies.

Trump would crack down on federal whistleblowers, who are typically shielded by law, and would institute an independent body to “monitor” US intelligence agencies.