COP29: Urgent action needed to foster a green economy


By Dr. Tim Sandle
November 8, 2024

DIGITAL JOURNAL


High air pollution levels in Bangkok on February 15, 2023 - Copyright AFP Lillian SUWANRUMPHA

In the lead-up to COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan), as global temperatures exceed 1.2C due to planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuels still take a huge chunk of climate financing and investment.

COP29 has been dubbed the “climate finance COP” for its central goal: to agree on how much money should go each year to helping developing countries cope with climate-related costs. However, concerns have bene expressed that not all world leaders are set to attend the event.

COP29 is the world’s most important meeting on climate change. It is organized by the United Nations and the 2024 event, the 29th staging, with the event running from 11-22 November.

A new report – REN21’s Renewables for Economic & Social Value Creation module of the Global Status Report – reveals that investment in renewable energy accounted for only 7 percent of global GDP growth in 2023. On the plus side, this has created 16.2 million jobs worldwide.

REN21 is a renewable energy network seeking to connect governments, industries, NGOs and science globally to accelerate the shift to renewables.

REN21 also released the Global Overview in April 2024. It provided the big picture status of renewables in the wider energy system in the context of global challenges such as climate change, economic development and the geopolitical landscape.

Despite fossil fuel investments by banks decreasing by 9 percent last year, only 6 of the top 60 major banks in the world currently prioritize renewable finance, highlighting an urgent need to align capital flows with sustainable energy goals. This is set to be a key topic for COP29.

With fossil fuel subsidies at $616 billion renewables face significant barriers to scaling. This gap underscores the urgent need for targeted policy and finance shifts to support the transition to sustainable energy.

Action can still be implemented and the REN21 report demonstrates that the advantages of renewable energy extend beyond climate mitigation, showcasing how renewables drive sustainable economic growth, job creation, and resilience-building.

The report underscores the pivotal role of renewables in achieving the ambitious climate and social policy goals set in COP28. For example, renewables accelerate energy access and alleviate energy poverty, since 2000, renewable power has saved an estimated $409 billion in fuel costs.

Renewables can be distributed in remote areas and improve resilience during emergency situations, such as extreme weather events or wars. The report points out that decentralised renewable energy systems can enhance resilience by supporting essential services during extreme weather events and disasters, strengthening food security, water access, and climate adaptability across communities.

 

Windfall profits from oil and gas could cover climate payments

Companies took in half a trillion dollars more than expected in 2022

Technical University of Munich (TUM)

A central issue at the UN Climate Change Conference, set to start on November 11, will be the negotiations on new payments from industrialized nations to poorer countries. However, the question of whether and how these payments will be financed remains highly controversial. The study by an international team of researchers, with participation by the Technical University of Munich (TUM), has now revealed: The windfall profits alone taken in by oil and gas companies due to the 2022 energy crisis would have been sufficient to cover the existing commitments of the industrialized nations for nearly five years. The researchers therefore recommend collecting taxes on these so-called windfall profits from fossil fuels.

A key point on the agenda of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29) will be the negotiations on the funding of the climate targets. The industrialized nations made a commitment to pay 100 billion dollars annually between 2020 and 2025 to poorer countries for climate protection and adaptation to climate change. Now the follow-up agreement, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is to be passed. However, the countries have not fully delivered on their previous commitments nor have the negotiations on the NCQG clarified how the additional funds are to be raised.

An international team of researchers has therefore investigated one of the proposals under consideration: a tax on windfall profits of companies that make their money with fossil fuels. A windfall profit tax imposes a levy on profits that exceed what would be expected in normal circumstances due to a special situation, generally a crisis. The energy crisis following the Russian attack on Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 was a special situation of this kind. In that year international energy prices soared.

The research team studied the profits reported for 2022 by 93 of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies and compared them with analysts’ forecasts at the beginning of the year. The total expected profits amounted to around 753 billion dollars. The actual profits earned by the companies totalled around 1.243 trillion dollars. Consequently, the companies took in windfall profits of around 490 billion dollars. “These additional profits from just one year are close to the total amount promised to the poorer countries for a five-year period,” says study leader Florian Egli, Professor of Public Policy for the Green Transition at TUM.

42 percent of windfall profits earned by state companies

To assess whether governments could have redistributed these excess profits, the researchers considered the countries where they are domiciled and whether they are publicly or privately owned. 42 percent of the windfall profits were earned by state-controlled companies, with the largest proportion earned in Norway. “The governments have the ability to take direct action to skim off the profits earned due to a crisis and use them to fight the climate crisis,” says the second study leader Dr. Anna Stünzi of the University of St. Gallen.

Of the private companies that earned windfall profits, 95 percent were headquartered in countries that have made commitments to contribute to climate protection financing. “With a tax on windfall profits from oil and gas, at least some industrialized countries could generate income to meet their commitments to the poorer countries,” says Florian Egli. Among the private companies, companies in the USA accounted for around half of these profits (143 billion dollars). An additional 37 percent of the profits were taken in by companies in the UK; France and Canada. Nearly all of the companies are located in G20 countries.

“Agreement on minimum tax could be a role model”

“More than half of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions result from the burning of oil and gas. At the same time, the oil and gas industry has been one of the most profitable sectors for a long time,” says Florian Egli. “It would undoubtedly be hard to reach an international agreement to tax these profits. But the agreement on a global minimum tax rate for companies, reached by more than 130 countries in 2023 under the auspices of the OECD and G20, could be a role model.” The taxes could flow into a fund, for example, so that money would also be available in years without windfall profits. So far, the EU had introduced a temporary windfall profits tax on fossil fuels in 2022; in the UK, such a tax will apply until 2030.

The researchers note that the worldwide profits of the industry are larger than those stated in the study. That is because some of the biggest companies, for example in Russia, Iran, South Africa and Venezuela, do not publish their figures and could therefore not be included in the study.

“Taxing superprofits could tamper and phase down investment in oil and gas, building a stable and efficient clean energy market and helping to align financial flows with the goals of the Paris Agreement” says study author Michael Grubb, professor at University College London (UCL). “The reorientation of fossil fuel revenues for consistency with climate goals should be next on the global agenda.”

Further information:
Prof. Florian Egli leads the new Transformation Finance Lab of the TUM Think Tank. The TUM Think Tank brings together actors from the realms of science, civil society, politics and business to jointly develop proposals and instruments to address urgent problems.

---

Journal

Climate Policy

DOI

10.1080/14693062.2024.2424516 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Harnessing oil and gas superprofits for climate action

Article Publication Date

8-Nov-2024

Climate change poses multiple risks for

 banks


By AFP
November 8, 2024

Climate activists held a banner reading 'Banks dirty our future. Let's block them' outside the headquarters of French bank Societe Generale in 2019. Protests are one of the risks bank face over their response to climate change 

- Copyright AFP Philip FONG

Benoît PELEGRIN

Climate change poses risks to banks on several levels: it can directly impact their finances, tarnish their image and land them in the courtroom.

Non-governmental organisations regularly criticise banks for the glacial speed at which they are moving to take climate change into account.

The latest was Reclaim Finance, which alongside several other NGOs took aim at European banks just days ahead of the COP 29 UN climate summit that begins on November 11 in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku.



– Financial risk –



By continuing to finance fossil fuel projects, even as part of a transition to a green economy, banks are continuing to link their fates with the industry.

In an October 2022 report, Finance Watch calculated that the world’s 60 largest banks held approximately $1.35 trillion in fossil fuel assets on their books.

There has been no major change since, according to the NGO’s chief economist, Thierry Philipponnat.

The problem is that “there is no scenario where in 50 years fossil fuels will have any value,” he told AFP.

Nations agreed at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year to transition away from fossil fuels.

And the International Energy Agency expects demand for oil, gas and coal to peak by 2030.

Economics professor Laurence Scialom at Paris-Nanterre University warned that “overnight entire asset classes will deteriorate.”

Banks that hold shares and bonds of fossil fuel companies in their portfolios will see the value of those diminish, while fossil fuel companies could become credit risks as the sector’s profitability is squeezed, she warned.

The fossil fuel industry represents a “financial time bomb” for banks and they still underestimate the danger, said Scialom.

Home mortgages are also at risk.

US consultancy Bain & Company last year warned that wildfires, drought and other climate risks threatened between 10 and 15 percent of the value of the real estate portfolios held by the world’s top 50 banks.



– Reputation risk –



The research done by NGOs like Finance Watch and Reclaim Finance evaluating bank lending in light of climate change is regularly used by media and has begun to tarnish their public image.

Other groups have opted for more direct action such as disrupting shareholder meetings or demonstrating in front of headquarters buildings to draw attention to the behaviour of lenders.

These “name and shame” campaigns can be a powerful weapon for pressure groups as banks depend heavily on the confidence of clients.



– Legal risks –



NGOs have already challenged fossil fuel firms in court, with the most remarkable success to date being the 2021 victory by the Dutch chapter of Friends of the Earth against Shell.

Judges at The Hague District Court ruled three years ago that Shell must reduce its carbon emissions by 45 percent by 2030, as it was contributing to the “dire” effects of climate change.

That ruling was seen as an historic victory for climate change campaigners as it was the first time a company had been made to align its policy with the 2015 Paris climate change accords. Shell is appealing the ruling.

Activists are now turning to banks.

The Dutch chapter of Friends of the Earth launched in January of this year a case against the Netherlands’ top bank, ING, for financing highly polluting companies.

Then in February Friends of the Earth, Oxfam France and another NGO filed suit against BNP Paribas accusing it of contributing to climate change via its financing of fossil fuel firms.

Valerie Demeure, who heads up research on ESG issues at Ofi Invest Asset Management, said the cases are “certainly the start in a series”.

French law offers environmental activists a means to challenge companies.

Since 2017, large French firms are required to take effective measures throughout their supply chains to respect human rights and minimise environmental harm.

 

Pioneering research reveals some of the world’s least polluting populations are at much greater risk of flooding fuelled by climate change

University of Bristol

 

image: 

Image identifies where all 57 SIDS are located globally, including in the more concentrated regions of the Pacific (in red) and Caribbean (in black). Most SIDS are very small, meaning they have previously been missed out in global flood risk studies.

view more 

Credit: University of Bristol

A new study has exposed for the first time how inhabitants of the smallest countries globally, contributing least to climate change, already bear the brunt of its devastating consequences and the burden is likely to worsen.

The research, led by the University of Bristol, showed on average nearly one in five people (20%) in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – totalling some 8.5million – are now exposed to coastal and inland flooding. For three of the 57 countries concentrated in the Pacific, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea, namely the Bahamas, Guyana, and Tuvalu, this proportion trebles to more than 60% of the population, according to the findings.

Amidst record-breaking rainfall and catastrophic scenes in Valencia, Spain, the findings further highlight the severe risk of flooding for people in all parts of the world.

Lead author Leanne Archer, Research Associate at the University’s Cabot Institute for the Environment, said: “Flooding is now an alarming real-world threat for so many people globally. This study demonstrates that the often-overlooked Small Island Developing States are already subject to a disproportionate level of flood exposure, despite contributing the least to climate change.”

Projections also showed that in future, even in the least-worst global warming scenario considered, the number of people affected by rising sea levels, storm surge and extreme rainfall events, including tropical cyclones, will significantly grow. For comparison, the scale of people likely to be affected dwarfs the level of flood exposure in developed nations such as the US and UK, where around 13% and 8% of the population are impacted respectively.

Leanne said: “The findings should be a call to action to support these nations in adapting to and mitigating against these extreme repercussions, even under the lowest emissions scenario, which put life and livelihoods in peril.”

SIDS are group of island nations and territories, with smaller populations ranging from around 1000 to 7,000,000 people, identified by the United Nations (UN) as being especially exposed to the effects of climate change. Coastal flooding is a major driver of flood risk as the populations are often most concentrated along coastlines. But findings showed inland flooding is in fact a huge issue for SIDS, accounting for the vast majority of overall population exposure at 81%.

Leanne, who conducted the research for her PhD in flood risk, said: “Previous studies have only focused on coastal flooding, representing a significant underestimation of exposure. This is also the very first time a comprehensive picture of flood risk has been mapped across all 57 Small Island Developing States because the populations are so small, they haven’t met the minimum catchment size of previous major global studies.

“The modelling provides striking evidence demonstrating that climate change has an unjust and unequitable impact on the places and people, who have contributed least to the greenhouse gas emissions, fuelling the problem.”

Climate change is compounding the risk of flooding across SIDS by increasing the magnitude of many factors, including rainfall, river flow, extreme wave heights and water levels, storm surges, and sea level rise.

Even if global warming is limited to a 1.5⁰C increase by 2100, findings project more than a fifth (21%) of SIDS populations will be exposed to flooding. In a worst case scenario of more than 4⁰C warming this figure could rise to nearly a quarter (23%), according to the study. A UN report last month warned the world faces as much as 3.1⁰C warming if governments do not take more action to reduce carbon emissions.

Irrespective of how much the world warms, countries anticipated to be at most risk remained the same in the projections, including Belize, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Maldives.

The study, in partnership with the University of Southampton, used water risk intelligence firm Fathom’s Global Flood Map; a high-resolution global hydrodynamic flood model combined with worldwide population datasets.

Co-author Paul Bates, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and Co-founder of Fathom, said: “This study fills an important gap in research, including direct measures of flood hazard and exposure which are essential to adequately reduce loss and damage from flooding in the Small Island Developing States.

“The results are a timely warning to the world’s political leaders and policy makers that global commitments to significantly reduce carbon emissions must be backed up by action, in order to reduce potential loss and damage from flooding in Small Island Developing States, which contribute least to harmful carbon emissions.”

Finding bold answers to big questions concerning global challenges is at the heart of the University of Bristol’s research. This study cuts across core themes, including net zero and climate change and social justice, and the Cabot Institute has a strong focus on tackling pressing environmental change, natural hazards and disaster risk.

 

---

Journal

Environmental Research Letters

DOI

10.1088/1748-9326/ad78eb 

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

‘Population Exposure to Flooding in Small Island Developing States Under Climate Change’

Article Publication Date

7-Nov-2024

Sacred cow: coal-hungry India eyes bioenergy to cut carbon

By AFP

November 7, 2024

Dung from India's cows, sacred to many in the Hindu-majority country, is b

eing used to power a movement towards biogas fuel -

 Copyright AFP Punit PARANJPE

Philippe ALFROY

Venerated as incarnations of Hindu deities, India’s sacred cows are also being touted as agents of energy transition by a government determined to promote biogas production to cut its dependence on coal.

It is an understatement to say that Nakul Kumar Sardana is proud of his new plant at Barsana, in India’s northern Uttar Pradesh state.

Firstly, says the vice-president of a biomass joint venture between India’s Adani Group and France’s TotalEnergies, because it occupies “one of the holiest sites in the world”.

A four-hour drive south of the smog-filled capital New Delhi, among fields bristling with brickyard smokestacks, the small town of Barsana welcomes pilgrims who come to honour the Hindu goddess Radha.

But Sardana is also proud because his methanisation plant that opened in March is the “most technologically advanced and the largest biogas facility” in India.

It was built in Barsana to be as close as possible to its raw fuel — cattle dung and harvest stubble.

“This region is home to a million cows,” he said. “Their dung has been used as fuel for centuries in cooking”.

Cows have been blamed for contributing to global warming because they produce methane — a powerful greenhouse gas — in their manure or when they belch.

But in this case, the region is finding a creative use for the waste produced by the cattle, which are used for their milk. Eating them is taboo for many Hindus.

Stalks left behind after the rice harvest — that would otherwise be burned — join the slurry.

“Farmers are traditionally burning them, creating smog and pollution”, he added.

“In using natural waste, we are not only producing compressed biogas, but also high-quality organic fertiliser.”

Long lines of tractors dump dung and straw in the factory’s tanks, from which 10 tonnes of gas and 92 tonnes of fertiliser are produced each day.



– ‘Convert waste’ –



In its endless quest for power to fuel its economic growth, the world’s most populous nation — and third-largest fossil fuel polluter — has pushed biogas to achieve a much-promised transition to carbon neutrality by 2070.

In 2018, the government set itself an ambitious goal of building 5,000 biogas plants in six years.

But despite generous subsidies and the introduction of a buyback guarantee, the project attracted little initial interest — until the government forced the hand of producers.

From April 2025, at least one percent of liquid gas fuelling both vehicles and for domestic use must be biogas — rising to five percent by 2028.

That prompted a response from key players, starting with billionaires Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani — both close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi — eying lucrative public contracts.

Ambani promised his Reliance group would build 55 biogas plants by the end of 2025 to convert “food producers to energy producers” and generate 30,000 jobs.

His rival Adani plans to invest around $200 million in the sector in the next three to five years.

“The government is pushing to convert waste for the wealth of the country,” said Suresh Manglani, CEO of Adani Total Gas.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says both China and India are leading global growth in bioenergy, seen as one solution to mitigate global heating.

Even though biofuel remains more expensive than conventional gas, Indian production is expected to grow by 88 percent by 2030, it predicts.

Biogas is considered a clean energy because the waste used to produce it is completely natural, said Suneel Pandey of The Energy and Resources Institute.

It is “a sustainable solution to make wealth from waste,” he told AFP.



– ‘Potential is huge’ –



But the contribution of biogas to India’s transition away from heavily polluting coal — currently fuelling nearly 70 percent of electricity — will be relatively small.

India plans to more than double the share of gas in its energy mix — from six to 15 percent by 2030.

But the bulk of that will be liquefied natural gas (LNG), with Adani and TotalEnergies opening an LNG port on India’s eastern coast at Dhamra.

Burning gas to produce electricity also releases damaging emissions, although less than coal and oil.

Total argues its backing of biogas is more about environmental responsibility than commercial opportunity.

“Biogas goes way beyond figures and business plans,” said Sangkaran Ratnam, TotalEnergies chairman and managing director for India.

“It has also a tremendously positive knock-on effect on the rural communities in terms of jobs, in terms of care for the environment, and alternative forms of income.”

Tejpreet Chopra, head of renewable energy company Bharat Light and Power, said the biogas market is “small in the big picture of things” but the “potential is huge”.

But the investments required are vast. The Barsana plant cost $25 million, while the price of biogas remains uncompetitive: $14 per cubic metre, compared to $6 for LNG.

Yet Sardana remains more convinced than ever that biogas is key.

“We will learn the nuts and bolts of it and improve all processes,” he said.

“We stop wasting energy, we create rural jobs, and we are contributing to a more sustainable environment.”

Heat, air pollution, disease: How climate change affects health


By AFP
November 8, 2024

Pakistan's second biggest city Lahore recently recorded air pollution at a level 40 times level deemed acceptable by the WHO - Copyright AFP/File Arif ALI

Daniel Lawler and Isabelle Cortes

Record-breaking heat, extreme weather events, air pollution and the spread of infectious disease: climate change poses an already vast yet rising threat to the health of humans around the world, experts warn.

The latest round of UN climate talks begin next week during what is expected to be the hottest year in recorded history — and in the shadow of climate sceptic Donald Trump’s re-election as US president.

The COP29 negotiations will be held in Azerbaijan as the world continues to emit increasing levels of planet-heating fossil fuels, even as many nations have been lashed by devastating floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms.

“Climate change is making us sick, and urgent action is a matter of life and death,” the World Health Organization warned this week.

Here are some of the ways that global warming affects health.

– Extreme heat –

The EU’s climate monitor said this week that 2024 is “virtually certain” to surpass last year to become the hottest year in recorded history. It is also expected to be the first year that is more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Out of 15 ways that climate change impacts health being tracked by experts as part of The Lancet Countdown, 10 have now “reached concerning new records”, according to the group’s latest report.

The number of over-65s who died from heat has risen by 167 percent since the 1990s, just one of the recent all-time highs, the report said.

Extreme heat leads to numerous health risks such as kidney disorders, strokes, adverse pregnancy outcomes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, organ failure and ultimately death.

Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said “this year has underlined the growing impacts of a warming climate on people’s health and wellbeing”.

She pointed to extreme heat leading to 700 deaths and more than 40,000 cases of heat stroke in India, “climate-exacerbated” rains causing a dam to collapse in Nigeria killing 320, and 48 out of 50 US states “experiencing moderate or worse drought”.

Spain is meanwhile still recovering from its deadliest floods in a generation, while parts of the United States and Cuba are picking up the pieces after recent hurricanes.

Droughts, floods and other extreme weather events are also expected to hit global crops, leading to rising hunger in many regions.

– Air pollution –

Almost all — 99 percent — of the world’s population breathes air that exceeds the World Health Organization’s guidelines for air pollution.

This pollution has been found to increase the risk of respiratory diseases, strokes, heart disease, lung cancer, diabetes and other health problems, posing a threat that has been compared to tobacco.

Almost seven million premature deaths a year are linked to air pollution, according to the WHO.

Just last week, Pakistan’s second-biggest city Lahore recorded air pollution at 40 times the level deemed acceptable by the WHO.

In better news, the Lancet Countdown report found that deaths from fossil fuel-related air pollution fell by nearly seven percent from 2016 to 2021, mainly due to efforts to reduce pollution from burning coal.

– Infectious diseases –

The changing climate means that mosquitoes, birds and mammals will roam beyond their previous habitats, raising the threat that they could spread infectious diseases with them.

Dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile virus and malaria are all mosquito-borne diseases that could spread wider in a warming world.

The transmission risk of one dengue-spreading mosquito has risen by 43 percent over the last 60 years, according to the Lancet Countdown. A new global record of over five million dengue cases was recorded last year.

Storms and floods create stagnant water that are breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and also increase the risk of water-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid and diarrhoea.

Germany marks 1989 Berlin Wall fall with ‘Preserve Freedom’ party

By AFP
November 8, 2024

Artworks on the theme of freedom stand in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin - Copyright AFP Tobias SCHWARZ
Jastinder KHERA

Germany marks 35 years since the Berlin Wall fell with festivities from Saturday under the theme “Preserve Freedom!” as Russia’s war rages in Ukraine and many fear democracy is under attack.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz — whose coalition dramatically collapsed this week — said in a message to the nation that the liberal ideals of 1989 “are not something we can take for granted”.

“A look at our history and at the world around us shows this,” added Scholz, whose three-party ruling alliance imploded on the day Donald Trump was reelected, plunging Germany into political turmoil and towards new elections.

November 9, 1989 is celebrated as the day East Germany’s dictatorship opened the borders to the West after months of peaceful mass protests, paving the way for German reunification and the collapse of Soviet communism.

One Berliner who remembers those momentous events, retiree Jutta Krueger, 75, said about the political crisis hitting just ahead of the anniversary weekend: “It’s a shame that it’s coinciding like this now.”

“But we should still really celebrate the fall of the Wall,” she said, hailing it as the moment East Germans could travel and “freedom had arrived throughout Germany.”

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will kick off events on Saturday at the Berlin Wall Memorial, honouring the at least 140 people killed trying to flee the Moscow-backed German Democratic Republic (GDR) during the Cold War.

In the evening, a “freedom party” with a music and light show will be held at Berlin’s iconic Brandenburg Gate, on the former path of the concrete barrier that had cut the city in two since 1961.

On Sunday, the Russian protest punk band Pussy Riot will perform in front of the former headquarters of the Stasi, former East Germany’s feared secret police.

Pro-democracy activists from around the world have been invited for the commemorations — among them Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad.

Talks, performances and a large-scale open-air art exhibition will also mark what culture minister Claudia Roth called “one of the most joyous moments in world history”.

Replica placards from the 1989 protests will be on display along four kilometres of the Wall’s route, past the historic Reichstag building and the famous Checkpoint Charlie.

Also among the art installations will be thousands of images created by citizens on the theme of “freedom”, to drive home the enduring relevance of the historical event.



– ‘Populism and division’ –



Berlin’s top cultural affairs official Joe Chialo said the theme was crucial “at a time when we are confronted by rising populism, disinformation and social division”.

Axel Klausmeier, head of the Berlin Wall foundation, said the values of the 1989 protests “are the power-bank for the defence of our democracy, which today is being gnawed at from the left and the right”.

Most East Germans are grateful the GDR regime ended but many also have unhappy memories of the perceived arrogance of West Germans, and resentment lingers about a remaining gap in incomes and pensions.

These sentiments have been cited to explain the strong support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in eastern Germany, as well as for the Russia-friendly and anti-capitalist BSW.

Strong gains for both at three state elections in the east in September highlighted the enduring political divisions between eastern and western Germany over three decades since reunification.

While the troubled government led by Scholz’s Social Democrats and the opposition CDU strongly supports Ukraine’s fightback against Russia, the anti-establishment AfD and BSW oppose it.

The AfD, which rails against immigration, was embarrassed this week when several of its members were arrested as suspected members of a racist paramilitary group that had practiced urban warfare drills.

On the eve of the anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall, government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann recalled that the weekend will also mark another, far darker chapter in German history.

During the Nazis’ Kristallnacht or Night of Broken Glass pogrom of November 9-10, 1938, at least 90 Jews were murdered, countless properties destroyed and 1,400 synagogues torched in Germany and Austria.

Hoffmann said that “it is very important for our society to remember the victims… and learn the correct lessons from those events for our conduct today”.

Study: Negative effects of smartphone use on young people


ByDr. Tim Sandle
November 7, 2024

Smartphone makers are racing to develop more potent batteries that can charge faster and last longer - Copyright AFP Nelson ALMEIDA

A new study carried out by the University of Canberra on the modern problem of ‘Problematic Smartphone Use (PSU)’ offers a closer look at why young adults, aged 18 to 25, are spending substantial time on their devices each day, and the harmful consequences behind these.

To come up with solutions the causes need to be understood. The research finds that young adults are increasingly reliant on smartphones to:

-Cope with Discomfort: For many young adults, smartphones serve as a tool to manage negative emotions such as anxiety, low mood, and social discomfort.

-Seek Rewards and Validation: A significant portion of participants admitted they sought social media validation, often posting updates and photos to receive likes and positive comments.

-Conforming to Social Norms: Social pressure to respond quickly to messages or notifications creates a “pressure-driven loop,” causing many to check their phones even during risky situations, such as driving. This pressure often results in reduced focus and compromised safety.

-Instrumental Value: Practical needs, like navigation, organization, and scheduling, also drive smartphone dependency.

Hence, young adults are increasingly reliant on smartphones to cope, seek validation, and conform—potentially endangering their mental well-being and safety. Many young people frequently turn to their smartphones when feeling socially anxious, leading to avoidant behaviors that prevent them from developing healthier coping skills.

This over reliance carries negative impacts on mental and physical health. Meaning that the implications of PSU extend beyond simple smartphone dependence. Associated issues include:

-Sleep Disruption: Participants reported using their smartphones in bed, leading to poor sleep quality—a known risk factor for anxiety, depression, and cognitive impairment.

-Academic Impact: Many participants confessed to using their phones to avoid studying, which can lead to reduced academic performance due to time spent on their devices.

-Physical Health Risks: Engaging in risky behaviors, such as using smartphones while driving, was a concern raised by participants, posing a tangible threat to physical safety and increasing the risk of accidents.

The study was led by Dr. Amanda George who is an Associate Professor in the Discipline of Psychology at the University of Canberra.

“Young adults are increasingly using smartphones as a digital ‘safe space’ where they can momentarily escape real-world discomforts,” George states.

She adds: “But while they may experience immediate relief, this reliance risks developing into a coping mechanism that can hinder emotional growth and resilience.”

George also finds: “As smartphones serve more and more functional roles, they become essential to everyday tasks. However, this dependency creates stress when access to the device is restricted, contributing to behaviors that mimic addiction.”

The findings underscore the need for tailored interventions to help young adults manage the psychological drivers behind PSU. As smartphones continue to become indispensable, understanding the psychological mechanisms behind PSU is crucial to improving well-being and developing effective interventions.

Review: ‘Heretic’ delivers a new brand of extremism


By Sarah Gopaul
November 8, 2024

A scene from 'Heretic' courtesy of TIFF

‘Heretic’ is a thrilling debate between opposing religious beliefs that turns malicious when one side proves determined to win at all costs.

The world is filled with people who have different lifestyles and beliefs. This diversity makes life rich and provides endless opportunities for new experiences. It nurtures acceptance and commands understanding. However, it also leads to a lot of disagreement and conflict. Some discourses are healthy as it is important to challenge ideas, but others are dismissive and violent as they have no tolerance for anything that doesn’t align with their views. In Heretic, a man invites a pair of young women into his home for the sole purpose of questioning the validity of their religion.

Sister Barnes (Sophie Thatcher) and Sister Paxton (Chloe East) are travelling to people’s homes who’ve shown an interest in learning more about the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. As Mormons, they follow a distinct set of rules when it comes to these house visits, but Mr. Reed (Hugh Grant) assures them all is well. He has some very stimulating thoughts and questions about their religion, and Paxton thinks she may finally convert someone. However, as the conversation derails, the young women find they cannot leave and have been tricked into participating in a series of experiments so Reed can test their faith.

Religion is generally one of the most contentious subjects in human history. Wars have been waged, cultures destroyed and people forcibly converted as one group determines their beliefs are superior to all others. In some instances, people are brought up in one religion, but as they get older they find another dogma better aligns with their principles. Reed believes he’s found the one true religion and resolves to convince the Mormon missionaries that they’ve dedicated their lives to the wrong one. What begins as moderate prodding of their convictions — including a provocative metaphor involving Monopoly — slowly evolves into terrifying tests of their faith.

The writer-director team of Scott Beck and Bryan Woods thrive on creating stories that unfold in unique circumstances. The film’s opening acts are intensely thought-provoking as Reed initiates an intimidating debate to which the girls can only provide wrong answers and only he can win. Grant’s performance is incredibly unsettling as his calm demeanour masks a sadistic need to be right at all costs. Barnes recognizes that this is a vicious game and encourages Paxton to help her challenge Reed to advance their survival to the next level. Paxton is the meeker of the pair as she was raised in the church and Barnes, while similarly devoted, is a convert and still retains some of her more stubborn qualities.

Regrettably, the last act loses the thread to some degree. It introduces some ideas with great potential that are not fully explored, while also rejecting Reed’s doctrine by significantly shifting his character’s arc. An intriguing model is used sparingly in the narrative, though it could’ve been a far more curious prop if better utilized. Similarly, Reed’s wife’s role in his quest for the truth is only mentioned in passing, though there’s a sense that there’s a bigger, untold story. It’s unfortunate the narrative loses its stirring momentum at the end, but the rest of the picture and Grant’s latest turn as villain is still worth the watch.

Directors: Scott Beck and Bryan Woods
Starring: Hugh Grant, Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East

 

Improving crisis response and public transit through mobility modeling

Lehigh University researchers, supported by NSF, are using advanced algorithms and cross-domain data to help cities predict human movement patterns and better prepare for events and emergencies

Lehigh University

 

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Yu Yang is an assistant professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Lehigh University, where he leads the DASH (Data, Algorithm, System, and Human) Lab. His research focuses on addressing real-world societal challenges related to cyber-physical systems.

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Credit: Lehigh University

Knowing how people move across urban areas is about more than avoiding traffic jams.

“Think about something like COVID-19,” says Lehigh University researcher Yu Yang, an assistant professor of computer science and engineering in the P.C. Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science. “Having a better understanding of human mobility could help cities implement transportation policies during times of public health crises that could reduce infection rates.”  

Yang recently received a grant from the National Science Foundation to develop a model that can estimate and predict how people move within cities, which could better inform applications ranging from public health policy to transportation and urban planning. The research team includes Lehigh collaborators Lichao Sun, an assistant professor of computer science and engineering, and Yue Yu, a professor of applied mathematics in Lehigh’s College of Arts and Sciences.

Currently, cities tend to rely on empirical or historical data to plan for situations—like concerts, games, and severe weather—that significantly impact how people get around. Such an approach, however, is limited because it assumes that past events can predict future mobility patterns. 

“And that’s a problem,” says Yang. “How people got around during a game last year isn’t necessarily how they’ll get around for a similar event this year. Our research will address this lack of precision and real-time modeling based on interactions between human beings and city infrastructures.” 

Yang and his team will work with both New York City and Newark, New Jersey, to collect data from a wide variety of sources, including cell towers, GPS systems, traffic cameras, subway entry and exit records, and financial transactions (think credit card swipes). Together, the data will provide a more comprehensive look at mobility patterns.

“Previous work in this area focused on only a single domain,” he says. “But if you’re only using data from a single infrastructure, like GPS, your results will be biased and they won’t be representative. We want to model human mobility based on this idea of cross-domain infrastructure.”

The challenge, he says, is that such data streams vary both spatially and temporally. For example, cell towers provide a general sense of someone’s location over a wide area, while GPS offers pinpoint accuracy every few seconds. Similarly, financial transactions might give information on a user’s location but only at specific points in time. The research seeks to overcome these discrepancies by developing a neural operator-based unified machine learning model that accounts for such variations.

The team will also develop federated learning techniques to preserve data privacy. Such methods will allow different data holders (such as transportation agencies or telecommunications providers) to train a model without having to share sensitive data with one another. 

In addition to helping cities better plan, design, and control public transportation routes for safer, more efficient services, a unified mobility model could also help city officials detect and react to abnormal patterns of movement caused by large-scale events (concerts and games, for instance) and emergencies (such as hurricanes and floods). 

“What makes this research so interesting is that it’s not just a computer science problem,” says Yang. “Human mobility responds to so many variables, which makes this very much an interdisciplinary issue. As we move forward with this research, I’m looking forward to exploring the collaborations we can form across the university.”

About Yu Yang

Yu Yang is an assistant professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Lehigh University, where he leads the DASH (Data, Algorithm, System, and Human) Lab. His research focuses on addressing real-world societal challenges related to cyber-physical systems. Yang’s work combines ubiquitous/mobile sensing, spatio-temporal machine learning, and reinforcement learning to bridge the physical and cyber worlds, with feedback loops from the cyber to the physical domain. His research has applications in fields such as intelligent transportation systems, logistics, the on-demand gig economy, last-mile mobility, and smart cities. Yang holds a PhD in computer science from Rutgers University.

Related Links 

• NSF Award Abstract (2427915): Privacy-preserving Federated Neural Operators for Human Mobility Prediction on Cross-Domain...
• Rossin College Faculty Profile: Yu Yang
• Rossin College Faculty Profile: Lichao Sun
• College of Arts and Sciences: Yue Yu

 MEDICAL MYSTERY

One gene provides diagnoses for 30 patients whose condition was unexplained for years

Baylor College of Medicine

An international team of researchers has provided a genetic diagnosis for 30 individuals whose condition was undiagnosed for years despite extensive clinical or genetic testing. The study, conducted by researchers at Baylor College of Medicine, National University of Singapore and collaborating institutions worldwide, appeared in Genetics in Medicine, the official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics.

“The story of our findings began with one patient I saw in the clinic presenting an uncommon combination of problems,” said first and co-corresponding author Dr. Daniel Calame, instructor of pediatric neurology and developmental neurosciences at Baylor. “The patient had severe developmental conditions, epilepsy and complete insensitivity to pain, which was very atypical. The condition had remained undiagnosed despite numerous tests conducted by geneticists and neurologists.”

Calame enrolled the patient in the BCM GREGoR (Genomics Research to Elucidate the Genetics of Rare Diseases) research program. “We reanalyzed the patient’s genetic and clinical data and that brought us to a gene, FLVCR1, and a medical mystery to solve,” Calame said.

One gene, multiple conditions

To try to understand how the rare FLVCR1 mutation in the patient could lead to the condition, Calame and his colleagues researched scientific literature on this gene. Current evidence indicates that the FLVCR1 protein plays a key role in the production of red blood cells and in the transport of choline and ethanolamine in cells. Choline and ethanolamine are important for cells. They are precursors for phosphatidylcholine and for phosphatidylethanolamine, respectively, which are required for cell membrane integrity needed to support cell division and other essential cellular functions.

Other researchers have studied the Flvcr1 gene, the equivalent of the human gene, on animal models. They found that knocking out the gene in mice was lethal at the embryonic stage. “The embryos have many bone malformations in the head and limbs and defective production of red blood cells, which is reminiscent of Diamond-Blackfan anemia (DBA) in people,” Calame said. “But this was different from what we saw in our patient.”

Patients with DBA also have bone malformations. Interestingly, although the evidence in mice pointed at FLVCR1 as the gene causing DBA, the gene was not identified as playing a role in DBA patients at the time. Other genes were discovered that caused the condition.

In addition, other studies found rare defective copies of the FLVCR1 gene in patients with childhood or adult-onset ataxia, a condition characterized by poor muscle control and incoordination, who also had sensory problems and retinitis pigmentosa, or progressive vision loss. These problems also were not like those Calame was seeing in his patient. 

“We were intrigued. On one hand, we had a patient with a rare FLVCR1 mutation and severe developmental conditions, epilepsy and complete insensitivity to pain, but on the other hand there were patients with rare mutations on the same gene that presented with a different set of problems,” Calame said. “Could it be that those different mutations of FLVCR1 caused not one set but a spectrum of characteristics we observed in all the patients combined?”

Solving the mystery of FLVCR1 brings answers to patients

The team searched for an answer to this mystery by combining two strategies. One strategy was to increase the number of patients they could study by identifying individuals with undiagnosed neurodevelopmental disorders and FLVCR1 gene variants in large, specialized datasets. They identified the patients either through the Baylor-Hopkins Center for Mendelian Genomics/BCM GREGoR database, the Baylor Genetics clinical diagnostic laboratory database, GeneMatcher or other research and clinical diagnostic laboratories.

“We identified 30 patients from 23 unrelated families with rare FLVCR1 variants,” Calame said.

The researchers found 22 gene variants, 20 of which had not been described before. The patients’ characteristics range from severe developmental disorders with profound developmental delay, microcephaly (a head much smaller than expected), brain malformations, epilepsy and premature death. Severely affected patients share traits, including anemia and bone malformations, with mice lacking the Flvcr1 gene and DBA, which had not been linked to FLVCR1 before.

The second strategy to find an answer to this medical mystery was to characterize the functional consequences of the FLVCR1 variants in laboratory experiments in collaboration with Dr. Long Nam Nguyen and colleagues at the Yoon Long Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore. The team wanted to better understand the effect the different variants they found in patients would have on choline and ethanolamine transport in cells in the lab. They found that FLVCR1 variants significantly reduce choline and ethanolamine transport – up to half of the transport seen with normal FLVCR1 proteins. “We propose that disease severity depends on the residual transport activity of the FLVCR1 variants a patient carries,” Calame said.

Other studies have shown that choline is required for normal neurodevelopment and that its deficiency also causes anemia, liver disease, growth retardation and immune deficiency. “Neurodevelopment is also disrupted by defective choline uptake, and we showed that the variants in our patients do reduce choline transport,” Calame said.

Altogether, the findings demonstrate that FLVCR1 variants cause a broad spectrum of developmental problems ranging from severe multiorgan developmental disorders resembling DBA to adult-onset neurodegeneration. The variants identified in patients reduce choline and ethanolamine transport in cells in the lab, suggesting that transport of these molecules into the central and peripheral nervous systems is essential to prevent neurodegeneration and required for normal neurodevelopment.

“Our findings also support further studying the potential therapeutic value of choline or ethanolamine supplementation in FLVCR1-related diseases,” Calame said. “The 30 patients we identified had not had a diagnosis for years; it was rewarding to be able to provide an explanation for their condition.”

This study also underscores the importance of approaching the diagnosis of rare conditions with a wide perspective. “The 30 severely affected individuals reported here had all undergone clinical or research exome or genome sequencing, which identified the reported FLVCR1 variants, yet in each case the variants were previously felt either non-contributory or of uncertain significance given the apparent mismatch of characteristics among patients,” Calame said. “Such false assumptions illustrate the importance of incorporating model organism data into personalized genome analysis for rare diseases and the need to anticipate more severe and milder patient characteristics associated with each disease gene to maximize the yield of diagnostic genetic testing.”

For the complete list of authors, their affiliations and financial support for this project, see the publication.

Interested in participating in the BCM GREGoR research program? Contact Dr. Calame at calame@bcm.edu.

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Journal

Genetics in Medicine

DOI

10.1016/j.gim.2024.101273 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Biallelic variation in the choline and ethanolamine transporter FLVCR1 underlies a severe developmental disorder spectrum

Article Publication Date

8-Nov-2024