Ford Dagenham strikers say they’re ‘having a huge impact’

Workers at Ford plants in east London and Liverpool struck this week

Unite union members on the picket line in Dagenham during the Ford strike 

(Picture: Guy Smallman)

By Arthur Townend
Thursday 14 November 2024

SOCIALIST WORKER Issue

Over 1,000 workers at Ford car plants in Dagenham in east London and Speke in Liverpool are fighting over pay and contracts. The Unite union members were set to round off a five day strike on Friday.

There were high spirits among maintenance and operations workers on the picket line at Ford Dagenham on Thursday.

Kerry, the Unite rep, said that the “initial trigger was contract negotiations”. “But that turned out not to be a negotiation—it was an ultimatum. We had to accept their diminished terms, or we get nothing at all,” she told Socialist Worker.

“Ford wants to link our pay to performance, which is unacceptable. Whatever the pay rise is supposed to be, we might not get it because of things that aren’t in our control that affects performance.

“We’ve seen that pay linked to performance doesn’t work with teachers, and we’ve tried to tell Ford this.”

Bosses have offered many office workers a one-off payment for this year and performance related pay for all workers from next year. Striker Dave said, “It’s basically a bonus—but with a lump sum, we’re always going to be behind. Even if we just get a 1 percent pay rise, that’s consolidated year on year.

“Ford is just trying to swing it, saying that it’s a 5 percent pay increase when it isn’t. And it’s all based on our managers’ judgement, so even if we meet our targets that doesn’t mean we get a pay rise.”

Another striker, Dan, said, “The union is trying to talk to Ford, but the company isn’t actually listening to what we’re saying. It just says, ‘We know you’re unhappy about pay’, but it’s not just that.

“It’s being framed as a pay dispute, and of course pay is part of the issue, but the terms and conditions are the main problem.

“There are three main things we’re unhappy about and pay is the least of it. Ford is trying to change our terms and conditions and putting in unfair process that mean we can never meet the targets to get the supposed pay rise.”

Kerry said an absence review process Ford is trying to implement will hit sick and disabled workers. “People on long term sick—through cancer or other serious illnesses—aren’t protected anymore,” she said.

“Ford could turn around and say that a person may be unfit for work, so that forces some workers into a precarious position.”

Strikers are confident that they’re having an impact. Kerry said, “It’s always a struggle to get people on a picket line, but workers here feel strongly about this. When we balloted, 70 percent voted for strikes.

“We’re hoping our impact will force Ford to come and talk to us. But Ford hasn’t seen anything yet.”

Kerry added that the Ford workers’ fight was part of a bigger one. “Today, we have zero hours contracts and huge job instability,” she said. “A good, stable job used to be an aspiration, but now we’re forced to feel greedy or privileged for wanting that kind of job, and struggling to get those conditions is seen as bad.

“In this world, which is not a functioning world, you have to rely on the government and food banks even when you have a job, and that’s just not right.

“We need to get back to a place of good working class jobs to get that stability, and strikes are an important tool to get that.”Some workers’ names are pseudonyms

Political prisoners in Russia and occupied Ukraine

HubMP201

Bill Bowring highlights an important upcoming meeting.

In her recent Second Report to the UN, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Russian Federation, Mariana Katzarova, reported that at least 1,372 human rights defenders, journalists and anti-war critics have been detained on politically motivated charges and sentenced in sham trials to lengthy imprisonment, often with treatment amounting to torture.

Widespread arbitrary detention, harsh sentencing and the deliberate use of torture and ill-treatment in detention, including frequent recourse to punitive solitary confinement for excessive periods, are commonly utilized against those who dare criticize the war against Ukraine. The continued imprisonment of political prisoners and denial of necessary treatment to those in a critical health condition, such as Alexei Gorinov, Igor Baryshnikov and Evgeny Bestuzhev, amount to torture and put them at risk of death in custody.

Age and contributions to society offer no protection against state-driven persecution.  Yuri Dmitriev, a 67-year-old historian of the Gulag and former head of the Karelian branch of Russian human rights organisation Memorial, imprisoned for exposing Stalinist-era crimes, repeatedly suffers prolonged punitive solitary confinement. Detained paediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, 68 years old, faces five and a half years’ imprisonment in a penal colony, accused by the widow of a serviceman of expressing opposition to the war against Ukraine during the medical check-up of her child.

At least 53 anti-war activists are currently being punished by forced psychiatric detention that can be indefinite.

On Monday 18th November, from 6pm to 8pm, at the Montague Lecture Centre, Graduate Centre, Queen Mary University of London, 327 Mile End Road, London, leading Russian and UK experts will explore these issues. Book here.

Speakers include UK experts on the Russian legal and penal system (Profs Judith Pallott, Oxford and Helsinki; and Bill Bowring, Birkbeck), alongside campaigners for prisoners’ rights in Russia (speakers from the Russian human rights organisation, Memorial, in exile), and in the territories of Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Russia (Yevgeniy Zakharov, director of the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group).

Bill Bowring, Colchester CLP, teaches international law and human rights at Birkbeck College. He has travelled regularly to Russia since 1983, and to Ukraine since 1992, including work with Russian prisons. He has twice been arrested and deported from Russia. The Russian translation of his book The Degradation of the International Legal Order? The rehabilitation of law, and the possibility of politics (NLO Publishers, 2021), is no longer available in Russia. He contributed two chapters, on Russian approaches to international law and to human rights, to The Foundations of Russian Law (ed Marianna Mutavyeva, Bloomsbury 2023).

Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%98%D0%9A-5.jpg View of the maximum security penal colony FKU IK-5, Kokhma, Ivanovo region, Russia. Author: Avtoloer, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

UK

Big energy profits lead to new calls for warmer homes, a social tariff, public ownership

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

Energy giant SSE has declared a big pretax profit rise of 26 percent, climbing to £714.5m, up from £565.2m in the same period last year.

The announcement has outraged fuel poverty campaigners. Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson asked: “How is it fair that energy companies keep raking in millions in profits? We know SSE made over  £7 billion since the start of the energy crisis whilst there are 6.5 million in fuel poverty and all of us are paying 60 percent more on our energy bills than we did three years ago. 

“The public knows the only way the UK will bring down bills in the long-term is by harnessing our renewable energy sources and properly investing in home insulation to free us from volatile fossil fuels for good.

“And they are angry that the industry continues to make obscene sums whilst so many people are scared to switch the heating on. That’s why three quarters support a social tariff for older and disabled people,  funded by the wider energy industry because let’s face it, they are the ones that can afford it.”

Last May, SSE announced a colossal profit of £2 billion over the last year. Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham said at the time: “SSE’s outrageous profits today show that profiteering is absolutely rampant in the UK economy when working people are still struggling to pay the mortgage and put food on the table.

“Unite’s latest profiteering report calls out this disgraceful practice for all to see and shows how utility companies are siphoning money away from workers and straight into the pockets of shareholders and directors.

“It is about time energy production was brought back into public ownership so that costs can be kept down for British manufacturers and costumers ensuring a fair deal for all.”

National Grid

Last week, National Grid posted a 14 percent increase in first-half underlying profits. Sharon Graham again called for public ownership: “The profits raked in by the National Grid lay bare Britain’s broken energy system. Energy profiteers like National Grid are extracting cash for overseas’ shareholders through ever more expensive bills. It is time our energy infrastructure was brought back into public ownership so that the British people and economy benefit rather than foreign wealth funds.”

Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson said: “Everyone is fed up with being ripped off by the energy sector and yet again we see another arm of this profiteering industry reporting massive profits.  

“Bill payers have spoken, they want to see our leaky homes upgraded and they want us freed from being held to ransom by volatile oil and gas prices by switching to renewable energy which would ultimately bring down bills for good. 

“People also want to see greedy companies, which include National Grid, that have made over £450 billion in profits since the start of the energy crisis foot the bill for a social tariff, helping older and disabled people with their energy bills this winter.” 

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented: “National Grid is one of the private monopolies that add to our standing charges through their role in the energy system. We need reform of these charges so that we are no longer bankrolling companies to make excess profits while people shiver in cold damp homes.

“As well as immediate reforms to our bills, we also need to see this couple with long term investment by the Government in a comprehensive Warm Homes Plan to bring down our energy consumption in a safe and managed way.”

A huge majority of the public back the Government providing more support to vulnerable households with their energy bills, according to an online survey conducted earlier last month by Opinium. Following the Chancellor’s removal of the Winter Fuel Payment from most pensioners, three quarters of the public now back the Government bringing in a social tariff to provide a discount on energy bills to those in greatest need of help.

Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/cj_collective/6992454230 climatejusticecollective Licence: Attribution 2.0 Generic Deed CC BY 2.0

Cuba Perseveres Amidst Hurricanes, Blackouts, and US Hostility

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13th November 2024Leave a Commenton Cuba Perseveres Amidst Hurricanes, Blackouts, and US Hostility

“The US sanctions are doing exactly what they are intended to do: cause pain and misery for the Cuban people. This economic blockade is nothing short of genocidal, affecting the elderly, the young, and the infirm the most.”

Despite facing a barrage of challenges – from devastating hurricanes to crippling US sanctions – the Cuban people persist in their revolutionary spirit and socialist principles. As the National Education Union’s Robert Poole witnessed first-hand, Cuba’s achievements in healthcare, education, and international solidarity are a testament to their resilience in the face of relentless imperialist aggression.

Cuba has not been having an easy time of it these past few years. First, a series of devastating hurricanes battered the island. Then came the large-scale blackouts that plunged much of the country into darkness. And now, the election of Donald Trump in the United States has ushered in a new era of hostility between the two nations.

Under President Obama, relations between the US and Cuba had begun to thaw. But with Trump’s victory, that progress quickly unravelled. In his first term, Trump designated Cuba as a “state sponsor of terror” – a dubious designation related to Cuba’s role in the peace process in Colombia. He also piled on over 200 additional economic sanctions, further tightening the screws on the Cuban people.

It’s important to note that the situation has remained icy even under the Biden administration. None of the Trump-era sanctions have been lifted, and the two countries’ relations have continued to fester.

The US sanctions are doing exactly what they are intended to do: cause pain and misery for the Cuban people. This economic blockade is nothing short of genocidal, affecting the elderly, the young, and the infirm the most. US officials have been startlingly candid about the purpose – to create civil unrest in the hope of toppling Cuba’s socialist government and allowing American businesses to resume their exploitation of the island.

Prostitution, gambling, and the virtual slavery of the working classes would be allowed to recommence. The gangster playground would reopen, elections would be bought and sold, and Cuba would once again become the property of the US government.

Yet despite all of these immense hardships, Cuba clings to its socialist principles and revolutionary spirit. The country has achieved remarkable successes, prioritising healthcare, education, sports, and the arts – the very things the British government has decimated over the past decade and a half.

Not only do the Cuban people survive under these harsh conditions, but they also use what they have to support other countries. The Cuban president recently led a march in solidarity with the people of Palestine, another victim of imperialism. The government has even provided 250 scholarships for Palestinian students to study medicine in Cuba.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Cuba was one of the only countries to take in sick passengers from cruise ships. And they sent their renowned medical brigades around the world to support doctors in places like Italy.

Basic supplies are desperately needed in Cuba – food, medical equipment, educational resources. That’s why the National Education Union (NEU) sends a delegation of its members to the island each year, in collaboration with the Cuba Solidarity Campaign. This year, I was honoured to be part of that delegation.

Twenty-seven NEU members arrived in Cuba with suitcases packed full of material aid – 17 braille typewriters, 15 violins, power banks, pens, paper, art supplies, and more. The gratitude from Cuban educators was palpable. The principal of a school for children with special needs in Pinar del Rio explained that the steady stream of braille typewriters from successive NEU delegations now means visually impaired students can attend school two years earlier.

On the NEU Delegation to Cuba, Robert Poole meets Cuban students in the classroom.

The delegation’s second purpose was to learn from Cuba’s exceptional education system. Literacy rates in Cuba stand at 99% – a stunning achievement compared to the 61% rate in neighbouring Haiti, a country that has never been able to throw off the yoke of imperialism.

A teacher with a class of students in Cuba during the NEU delegation.

This literacy campaign can trace its roots back to the Cuban “Year of Education,” when Che Guevara and Fidel Castro sent out literacy brigades into the rural areas. Before this, education had largely been the preserve of the middle and upper classes, concentrated in the cities and run by the church.

We visited the National Museum of the Literacy Campaign in Havana, which holds artefacts and archives of the numerous brigades of students, teachers, and workers who volunteered to take part. The youngest teacher was just 8 years old, and many educators were tragically murdered by CIA-backed terrorists.

The Cuban people’s resilience in the face of such immense adversity is truly inspiring. As they continue to defy the US empire and uphold their socialist ideals, it is our duty to stand in solidarity with our comrades in Cuba. Only through unwavering international support can they overcome the devastating impact of the US blockade and chart their own path forward.

The struggle of the Cuban people is our struggle. By supporting the Cuba Viva appeal and joining the Cuba Solidarity Campaign, we can all play a part in breaking the chains of this illegal blockade and building a better future for our Cuban brothers and sisters. Their fight for self-determination is a fight for us all. ¡Venceremos!

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• Robert Poole is a teacher, union rep, assistant district secretary for Bolton NEU and editor of the journal Education for Tomorrow.
• Robert will be speaking at the Bolton Socialist Club on Friday, November 29 at 7:30 pm. Entry is free, but donations towards the medical aid appeal are welcome.
• You can follow the Cuba Solidarity Campaign on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram.
  

Cuba Education Under the Blockade Flyer

 UK

Young Voices to Rally Against Tuition Fees and Build Call for Free Education

13th November 2024Leave a Commenton Young Voices to Rally Against Tuition Fees and Build Call for Free Education

“Labour’s fee increase announcement this week will further alienate young people and voters who had wanted to believe in the manifesto language of ‘change’… it commits the country’s university sector to continue down a road of US-style graduate debt.”

University students and young trades unionists will join former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell this week at a rally hosted by Arise Festival, to oppose a new rise in university tuition fees and to set out a vision of free education. 

The ‘No Tuition Fees rise – Rally for Free Education!‘ was called in response to the announcement on 4th November, when the Labour Government’s Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson announced an increase in university tuition fees. 

The move was just the latest in a long line of pledges made by Keir Starmer to secure the votes of party members to become Leader in 2020, when he promised to ‘support the abolition of tuition fees’. 

The policy had been in Labour’s manifesto under Starmer he maintained it in 2020 as he sought Labour members’ votes but in 2023 said “We are likely to move on from that commitment because we do find ourselves in a different financial situation.”

The fee increase by £285 to a total of £9535 per year from next October 2025 was characterised by Phillipson as a move to ‘fix the foundations’ of the sector’s funding after years of falling real budgets for universities. Universities UK have identified a £5bn gap between the cost of doing research and how much funding universities get to do it.

Phillipson’s statement to the Commons however loaded the responsibility on students to fill the funding gap, when she identified the freezing of tuition fee levels over seven years of Conservative Government as the cause of underfunding – and not Conservative austerity and falling grants to institutions – as the cause of the gap. 

The announcement is the latest in a long history of Labour Government’s being responsible for the introduction and increase in tuition fees. It was the Blair government in 1997 who introduced the first tuition fee of £1000 per year. The same government increased that through the introduction of top-up fees in 2004, proposed as a range of fees from £1125 to £3000 which ultimately saw almost all courses offered at the highest rate. The introduction of top-up fees, within a year of the Iraq war, contributed to New Labour’s growing unpopularity. It was the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition who increased fees to £9000 a year in 2012 which – alongside the establishment of the coalition – contributed to the Lib Dem loss of support as a progressive alternative to New Labour.

Labour’s fee increase announcement this week will further alienate young people and voters who had wanted to believe in the manifesto language of ‘change’. Instead, it commits the country’s university sector to continue down a road of US-style graduate debt which no other European country operates.

Former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said, “I opposed tuition fees from the start because it was inevitable they would be ratcheted up. If we had a fair taxation system we could scrap tuition fees and lift this burden from young people.”

Responding to the announcement, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said, “Universities should not be dependent just on student income to survive. Should we not be moving in the direction of lowering fees, or indeed removing them altogether, in order to make higher and further education genuinely open to all in our society?”

UCU leader Jo Grady said, “The proposed hike to tuition fees is both economically and morally wrong. Taking more money from debt ridden students and handing it to overpaid underperforming vice-chancellors is ill conceived and won’t come close to addressing the sector’s core issues.”

In her statement, Phillipson also said, “In the months ahead, we will publish our proposals, because in universities, as across our public services, investment can come only with the promise of major reform.”  

It is vital the left now sets out the case for public investment and free education. 

The Arise rally will hear from young voices including Mads Wainman, Disabled Students’ Officer, Warwick SU; Elliot Briffa, University of Manchester SU City & Community Officer; Niamh Iliff, youth rep on Labour’s Policy Forum; Hasan Patel, student campaigner; Fraser McGuire, Unite & TUC Young Members Forum and Coll McCail, Glasgow student.

They’ll also be joined by John McDonnell MP; Gawain Little, GFTU General Secretary; Anya Wilkinson, Young Socialist Educational Association and Myriam Kane, Black Liberation Alliance.

No to Tuition Fee Rises Online Rally hosted by Arise Festival at 6.30PM Thursday, 14 November.

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• “No tuition fees rise – rally for free education!” takes place online at 6.30pm Thursday 14th November. Register your place here.
• The rally is hosted by Arise – A Festival of Left Ideas. You can follow Arise Festival on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter/X; and listen to the Arise Festival podcast on Spotify.
• If you support Labour Outlook’s work amplifying the voices of left movements and struggles here and internationally, please consider becoming a supporter on Patreon.

Could Trump go to war with China?

14th November 2024Leave a Commenton Could Trump go to war with China?

“The appointment of inveterate China hawks Marco Rubio & Michael Waltz as secretary of state & national security adviser sends a clear signal that Trump is planning to escalate hostilities.”

By Carlos Martinez

Although the Pivot to Asia was initiated by the Obama administration – when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was tasked with developing a strategy for “America’s Pacific Century” – it was the Trump presidency from 2017-21 that really turned up the dial in terms of US anti-China hostility.

Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 on a promise to protect jobs by addressing the US’s trade deficit with China: “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country and that’s what they’re doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”

In power, the Trump administration launched a full-scale trade war, imposing enormous tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports. This was combined with a systematic attack on Chinese technology companies, removing Huawei from US telecoms infrastructure and attempting to prevent TikTok and WeChat from operating in the US.

Militarily, Trump ramped up the US’s presence in the South China Sea and sought to revitalise the Quad group (US, Japan, India and Australia), working towards a broad regional alliance against China.

The State Department oversaw a crackdown on Chinese students and researchers, and, with the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump resorted to flagrant racism, talking repeatedly about the “kung flu” and the “China virus” – all of which fed into a horrifying rise in hate crimes against people of East Asian descent.

As such, many breathed a sigh of relief when Joe Biden was elected four years ago. Unfortunately, however, Biden has essentially maintained the anti-China strategic orientation of his predecessor, albeit without the crassly confrontational rhetoric and overt racism. Biden in many ways has been more systematic in pursuit of military and economic containment of China, particularly when it comes to building an international coalition around US strategic interests.

In September 2021, the US, Britain and Australia announced the launch of AUKUS – a nuclear pact, manifestly contravening the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and evidently designed to counter China.

Biden has hosted numerous Quad summit meetings, at which the member states have reiterated their “steadfast commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific” – that is, to preserving a status quo in which the US maintains over 300 military bases in the region, along with tens of thousands of troops, nuclear-enabled warplanes, aircraft carriers, and missile defence systems aimed at establishing nuclear first-strike capability.

The combination of the Quad and AUKUS looks suspiciously like an attempt to create an Asian NATO. Meanwhile Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 trip to Taiwan Province was the highest-level US visit to the island in quarter of a century. In 2023, Biden signed off on direct US military aid to Taiwan for the first time; a BBC headline from November 2023 noted that “the US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth”. This undermines the Three Joint Communiqués – which form the bedrock for US-China diplomatic relations – and is clearly aimed at inflaming tensions across the Taiwan Strait and setting up a potential hot war with China over Taiwan. A recently-leaked memo from four-star general Mike Minihan predicted war over Taiwan in 2025: “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025”.

The Biden administration has expanded Trump-era restrictions against China’s technology industry, in particular by launching a ‘chip war’ to slow down China’s progress in semiconductor production, artificial intelligence, mobile phones and more. And while the US government under Biden has set several ambitious climate goals, it has also introduced sweeping sanctions on Chinese solar materials and imposed huge tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

The unfortunate truth is that there is a consensus among Democrats and Republicans. In Biden’s words, “we’re in a competition with China to win the 21st century” – and the US must win this competition at all costs.

To what extent can we expect the situation to change under a second Trump presidency?

A deepening of economic confrontation seems more than likely. Trump has already threatened 60 percent tariffs on goods from China – a significant escalation from his last trade war, when duties reached a high of 25 percent. Meanwhile he has suggested “a 100 percent or maybe even a 200 percent tariff” on Chinese carmakers.

While the US and China have made some progress working together on environmental issues in the last year, this will presumably be wiped out, given Trump’s disdain both for cooperation with China and for climate action.

In terms of military strategy, the picture is less clear. His rhetoric opposing the US’s “forever wars” likely helped his campaign, but its promise may well not be realised given the increasingly loud war drums beating in Washington.

Inasmuch as Donald Trump has a coherent analysis of international relations, he is perhaps closest to the “realist” concept that the US should make an ally out of Russia in order to prepare for confrontation with China. That ship has of course sailed, but nonetheless the US will likely shift emphasis and resources away from Russia and towards China.

The appointment of inveterate China hawks Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz as secretary of state and national security adviser sends a clear signal that Trump is planning to escalate hostilities. Marco Rubio is an anti-China fanatic, who stands for more tariffs, more sanctions, more slander, more support for Taiwanese separatism, more provocations in the South China Sea, and more destabilisation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Mike Waltz has long pushed for closer military cooperation with India, Japan, Australia and other countries in the region in preparation for war against China.

In his message of congratulations on Trump’s election, Chinese President Xi Jinping opined that “a stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship serves the two countries’ shared interests and meets the aspiration of the international community”. In other words, an offer recognising there is a need for international co-operation to tackle the urgent issues facing humanity, including climate change, pandemics, peace, nuclear proliferation, food security and development.

Accepting such an offer would mean a drastic change of path for the US and its allies, including Britain which, under Starmer as much as Sunak, hews perilously close to US positions. It would mean accepting humanity’s trajectory towards a multipolar future; it would mean prioritising the planet and its people over hegemonic ambitions; it would mean giving up on the Project for a New American Century.

Imperialist ruling classes will not walk that road of their own accord. Mass movements must force them to do so.

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• Carlos Martinez is a long-term anti-war campaigner and artist, who writes regularly on US-China relations. You can follow him on X.
• If you support Labour Outlook’s work amplifying the voices of left movements and struggles here and internationally, please consider becoming a supporter on Patreon.

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Trump’s Presidency Threatens Us All – Sophie Bolt

Labour Outlook

Amplifying socialist voices, supporting frontline struggles, building international solidarity.

14th November 2024Leave a Commenton Trump’s Presidency Threatens Us All – Sophie Bolt

“Trump’s election will strengthen the far right and fascists globally. In Britain, Farage and Tommy Robinson will be emboldened further to whip up hatred, justifying greater military spending for another world war.”

Sophie Bolt, CND General Secretary

By Sophie Bolt, Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND)

In Trump’s victory speech, he said he was going to stop wars, not start them. Excuse me if I’m not reassured. Based on his track record and the ultra-hawks he’s putting in the State Department, the threat of war and nuclear confrontation looks higher than ever.

Last time he was President, the US bombed Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, carried out extra-judicial killings and developed ‘useable’ nuclear weapons. Under his leadership, the US withdrew from landmark nuclear arms control treaties including the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA). And it withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement.

Trump’s new team for the State Department includes ultra China and Iran hawks, Marco Rubio, expected to be nominated for Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz, appointed National Security Advisor. Certainly Trump’s victory and open support for annexing the West Bank has already emboldened Netanyahu’s genocidal expansionism. This increases the risk of an all-out war on Iran.

As well as intensifying Trump’s protectionist ‘America First’ policy, by increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, a key focus will be racheting up a military confrontation with China. A military build up across the Asia Pacific has been underway for more than a decade, supported by 400 US military bases encircling China and the AUKUS nuclear alliance with Britain and Australia. Richard O’Brien, former security advisor to Trump, laid out in Foreign Affairs what to expect next. ‘As China seeks to undermine American economic and military strength,’ O’Brien argues, ‘Washington should return the favor – just as it did during the Cold War, when it worked to weaken the Soviet economy.’  This prospect of a new cold war is truly horrifying , when we remember how the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, lead to a permanent state of nuclear danger.  

With speculation about what Trump will do in Ukraine, the new British government doesn’t want to take any chances of de-escalation. Starmer has again pressed Biden to agree to Ukraine’s use of its long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which could strike deep into Russian territory. He knows full well that Russia has changed its nuclear use policy in response to such an attack. This only reinforces the need for an urgent negotiated settlement.

NATO membership of Ukraine remains a key factor in the conflict and Ukrainian neutrality will be critical for de-escalating the crisis. But there is absolutely no evidence to back up concerns amongst NATO hawks that Trump will abandon the world’s most powerful nuclear alliance. On the contrary, Trump has called on NATO states to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP. So, continuing to push the burden of funding onto the populations of NATO states. This means the toxic combination of increased militarism, nuclear dangers and austerity policies will continue across Europe.

Trump’s election will strengthen the far right and fascists globally. In Britain, Farage and Tommy Robinson will be emboldened further to whip up hatred, justifying greater military spending for another world war.  

And, as the US is one of the world’s largest polluters, Trump’s decision to pull out of Paris Climate Accord again, is another major set-back for climate action and investment in green technologies.

This shows more starkly than ever how war, racism, austerity, climate breakdown and nuclear annihilation are increasingly interlinked. We can’t allow this recklessly dangerous leader to drag the world towards annihilation. This is why CND is working with all those who oppose Trump to help build the broadest alliance possible for peace, justice and a sustainable, nuclear-free future.

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• Sophie Bolt is the General Secretary of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). You can follow her on Twitter/X and follow the CND on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter/X.
• This article was originally published by the CND on 13 November 2024.