Colorado River basins could face tipping point, drought study warns

Cornell University

ITHACA, N.Y. – Water from Colorado’s West Slope basins plays a vital role in supporting the economy and natural environment across seven western U.S. states, but a new study finds that even under modest climate projections, the basins face a potential tipping point where traditional water delivery levels to Lake Powell and other critical areas may no longer be sustainable.

The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, is the largest and most comprehensive exploratory modeling analysis of drought vulnerability in the Colorado West Slope basins – six watersheds along the Colorado River that feed the Lake Powell reservoir and support a $5 billion annual agriculture economy. The finding comes at a critical time as state and federal policymakers negotiate water-sharing agreements set to expire in the coming years.

Patrick Reed, senior author of the study and professor at Cornell’s School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, said the research was designed to better understand the limits of current management policies and clarify where new strategies for sustainable management could be beneficial.

By pairing Colorado’s water planning model, StateMod, with a new hidden Markov modeling framework, the study created hundreds of thousands of streamflow scenarios under both historical and climate-change conditions. The results imply that drought vulnerability analyses relying only on the historical streamflow record may severely underestimate the magnitude of potential drought events and their impacts on water storage, agriculture and municipal water supply.

“Our work shows that even relatively middle-of-the-road climate change and streamflow declines in these basins flows can threaten to put the system at risk of breaching a tipping point where the basins are no longer able to maintain the levels of deliveries to Lake Powell that we’re accustomed to over recent history,” Reed said.

In 2021, drought led Lake Powell to unprecedented lows, prompting the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to declare the first-ever water shortage in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The study shows that such shortages can emerge from the basins’ internal variability even in the absence of climate change, and that drought doesn’t just affect each basin individually – their combined effects create an even greater strain on the entire region.

“This finding highlights the need for advanced drought analysis methods that can capture these widespread and interconnected impacts,” said the study’s lead author, David. F. Gold, an assistant professor of physical geography at Utrecht University who conducted the research as a postdoctoral associate at Cornell.

Gold added that the exploratory modeling methodology also provides a roadmap for other work exploring drought vulnerability in institutionally complex river basins across the globe.

The research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science as part of research in the Multisector Dynamics area within the Earth and Environmental System Modeling program.

For additional information, see this Cornell Chronicle story.

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Journal

Earth's Future

DOI

10.1029/2024EF004841 

Article Title

Exploring the Spatially Compounding Multi-Sectoral Drought Vulnerabilities in Colorado's West Slope River Basins

 

Shelter model improves outcomes for people experiencing homelessness

New form of emergency housing connects residents to vital support services, fosters long-term success

Portland State University

In the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Oregon legislature funded 19 Project Turnkey sites to the tune of $74.7 million. This funding allowed communities to purchase local motels and convert them into shelters, known as Turnkey sites, that differ from the typical structure. At most sites, guests stay in private rooms and have access to food and hygiene supplies, case management and other on-site services and report a sense of community between the guests and staff. Guests are also allowed to stay in Turnkey sites for at least 3 months and aren’t required to vacate during the day.

Portland State researchers from the Homelessness Research and Action Collaborative — working with Oregon Housing and Community Services — studied the impacts of Turnkey shelters between October 2022 and August 2024 to better understand how successful this type of emergency shelter is in improving the lives of people experiencing homelessness. The report also highlights some of the challenges of providing these types of services.

Between spring 2021 and the end of 2023, these 19 Turnkey shelters provided at least 333,581 nights of shelter and served at least 2,793 different people.

Although many of the sites were initially tasked with serving survivors of the 2021 wildfires and providing shelter during the pandemic, by 2022 most of the sites had transitioned to serving people experiencing homelessness as well as those in need of medical respite or escaping domestic violence. Almost all of the sites prioritized serving the community’s most vulnerable members.

The Portland State report focused on the first round of Project Turnkey but the Oregon Legislature provided an additional $50 million in funding for Project Turnkey 2.0 in 2023, continuing the program and adding new sites.

“There is an emerging understanding that we need to do more than what is typically provided in a congregate emergency shelter setting,” said Anna Rockhill, lead researcher and author of the report. “The study points to a model that is missing in many communities and that is key to efforts to help people move from homelessness to more appropriate and stable housing and increase their well-being more generally.”

Traditional emergency shelters, in which guests share a large, common sleeping area, often require guests to vacate during the day and limit the duration of their stays to 30 days or less. These models provide an alternative to staying outside, but for many people experiencing homelessness, more support is needed to secure and sustain stable housing.

“We found that providing a chance to rest and regroup, and experience a period of stability allows guests to begin to imagine their future, make plans and engage in activities that will help them move forward,” Rockhill said. “Both staff and residents explained that for some people, it is overwhelming to go directly from being unsheltered into an apartment.”

In contrast, Project Turnkey sites make it possible for residents to “find their footing’ before moving on,” according to the report. A program director described Turnkey sites as “that nice middle ground where you are safe. You can build up those skills until you feel ready and independent to navigate those things yourself.”

In interviews with residents, many remarked on the positive impact to their lives, including the increased ability to meet their basic needs. Other benefits included the “space to work on things in silence” afforded by the private room. For many residents, the longer lengths of stay allowed them to complete applications and “get things in order.”

“It's extremely helpful. It gives you hope. And I'm seeing results so it makes me think that maybe something will happen this time,” another guest said of access to on-site case management.

Less tangible impacts were also found. For example, guests shared that they appreciated having a community and knowing they’re not alone in their struggles. One program director stressed the importance of a “human connection,” and said “80% of the lift is making people comfortable so they trust you with their problems or their goals,” according to the report.

“Placing services on-site, combined with person-centered, culturally responsive and trauma-informed approaches, facilitates relationships between shelter guests and staff that are often foundational to helping people with histories of homelessness and other types of trauma make progress on a range of goals,” Rockhill added. “As residents experience care and see their progress, they become more hopeful and optimistic about their future.”

In reflecting on the progress that she’d made since entering a Project Turnkey shelter, a guest said, “I couldn’t have done it anywhere else.”

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Article Title

Project Turnkey Evaluation

 

Novel electro-biodiesel a more efficient, cleaner alternative to existing alternatives

Washington University in St. Louis

By Beth Miller

Vehicles fueled by diesel lead to substantial carbon emissions that are challenging to decarbonize. In 2022, diesel fuel use made up about one-fourth of total U.S. transportation carbon dioxide emissions and about one-tenth of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Joshua Yuan, the Lucy & Stanley Lopata Professor and chair of the Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering in the McKelvey School of Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis, and Susie Dai, a MizzouForward Professor of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering at the University of Missouri, and their collaborators at Texas A&M University, have used electrocatalysis of carbon dioxide to create an electro-biodiesel that is 45 times more efficient and uses 45 times less land than soybean-based biodiesel production. Results of their work are published online in Joule Oct. 31.

“This novel idea can be applied to the circular economy to manufacture emission-negative fuels, chemicals, materials and food ingredients at a much higher efficiency than photosynthesis and with fewer carbon emissions than petrochemicals,” said Yuan, who began the work with Dai at Texas A&M University. “We have systemically addressed the challenges in electro-biomanufacturing by identifying the metabolic and biochemical limits of diatomic carbon use and have overcome these limits.”

The team used electrocatalysis, a type of chemical reaction initiated by electron transfers to and from reactants on surfaces of catalysts, to convert carbon dioxide into biocompatible intermediates, such as acetate and ethanol. The intermediates were then converted by microbes into lipids, or fatty acids, and ultimately became biodiesel feedstock, said Yuan, also director of the National Science Foundation-funded Carbon Utilization Redesign for Biomanufacturing-Empowered Decarbonization (CURB) Engineering Research Center (ERC).

The novel microbial and catalyst process developed by Yuan, Dai and their teams allowed their electro-biodiesel to reach 4.5% solar-to-molecule efficiency for converting carbon dioxide to lipid, which is considerably more efficient than biodiesel[BM1] . Nature photosynthesis in land plants is normally below 1%, where less than 1% of sunlight energy is converted to plant biomass by converting CO2 to diverse molecules for plant growth, Yuan explained.

“The amount of energy diverted to the biodiesel precursor, lipid, is even lower as lipid has high energy intensity,” he said. “On the contrary, the electro-biodiesel process can convert 4.5% of solar energy to lipids when a solar panel is used to produce electricity to drive electrocatalysis, which is much higher than the natural photosynthetic process.”

To prompt the electrocatalysis, the team designed a new zinc- and copper-based catalyst that produces diatomic carbon intermediates that could be converted into lipids with an engineered strain of the Rhodococcus jostiii (RHA1) bacterium, known to produce high lipid content. This strain also boosted the metabolic potential of ethanol, which could help to prompt conversion of acetate, an intermediate, to the fatty acid.

After developing the novel process, the team analyzed the impact of the process on climate change and found encouraging results. By using renewable resources for the electrocatalysis, the electro-biodiesel process could reduce 1.57 grams of carbon dioxide per gram of electro-biodiesel produced with the by-products of biomass, ethylene and others, giving it the potential for negative emissions. In contrast, conventional diesel production from petroleum produces 0.52 grams of carbon dioxide per gram, and biodiesel production methods produce 2.5 grams to 9.9 grams of carbon dioxide per gram of lipids produced.

“This research proves the concept for a broad platform for highly efficient conversion of renewable energy into chemicals, fuels and materials to address the fundamental limits of human civilization,” Yuan said. “This process could relieve the biodiesel feedstock shortage and transform broad, renewable fuel, chemical and material manufacturing by achieving independence from fossil fuel in the sectors that are fossil-fuel dependent, such as long-range heavy-duty vehicles and aircraft.”

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Chen K, Zhang P, Chen Y, Fei C, Yu J, Zhou J, Liang Y, Li W, Xiang S, Dai SY, Yuan JS. Electro-biodiesel Empowered by Co-Design of Microorganism and Electrocatalysis. Joule. Online Oct. 31, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2024.10.001

The research is supported by National Science Foundation’s Future Manufacturing Program and Engineering Research Center Program, both awarded to Yuan, Dai and other collaborators.

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Journal

Joule

 

Mountain lions coexist with outdoor recreationists by taking the night shift

How mountain lions in Los Angeles are adjusting to avoid human interactions

University of California - Davis

 

image: 

P65 walks with her kittens. In a UC Davis study, female mountain lions were generally more active during the day and closer to sunrise, perhaps because they are constrained by avoiding male mountain lions and not able to respond as strongly to recreation.

view more 

Credit: National Park Service

Mountain lions in greater Los Angeles are proactively shifting their activity to avoid interacting with cyclists, hikers, joggers and other recreationists, finds a study from the University of California, Davis, Cal Poly Pomona and the National Park Service. 

The study, published Nov. 15 in the journal Biological Conservation, found that mountain lions living in areas with higher levels of human recreation were more nocturnal than lions in more remote regions who were more active at dawn and dusk. The authors said their findings offer a hopeful example of human-wildlife coexistence amid a large, dense human population.

“People are increasingly enjoying recreating in nature, which is fantastic,” said lead author Ellie Bolas, a Ph.D. candidate in the UC Davis Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology. “This flexibility we see in mountain lion activity is what allows us to share these natural areas together. Mountain lions are doing the work so that coexistence can happen.” 

Mountain lions prefer to avoid people, but in a metro area of more than 18 million people, natural areas inhabited by mountain lions and other wildlife are also heavily used by recreationists. To learn whether and how lions were adjusting their activity in response to recreationists, the study authors monitored the movements of 22 mountain lions living in the Santa Monica Mountains and the surrounding region between 2011 and 2018.

The lions were captured and fitted with global positioning system (GPS) and accelerometer collars as part of a long-term study conducted by biologists at Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, a unit of the National Park Service. The authors analyzed the collar data and quantified human recreation in the area using a global database of GPS-tracked activities that users opted to make public.

“These results are really important in that they show how humans may be affecting wildlife in less obvious ways than killing them with vehicles,” said Seth Riley, branch chief for wildlife at the park. “The study also continues to drive home the amazing fact that a population of a large felid predator persists in one of the largest urban areas in the world. That would not be possible if mountain lions weren’t able to adjust to human activity in ways like this.”

How mountain lions respond to more humans

The study showed that Griffith Park hosted the highest levels of recreational activity, while the Santa Susana Mountains and Los Padres National Forest were least active. How did mountain lions respond? 

The least nocturnal mountain lion was female P13 in the central and western Santa Monica Mountains. Females, in general, were found to be more active closer to sunrise and during daylight hours as compared to males. The authors say this may be so they can avoid overlapping with male lions, who pose a threat to them and their kittens.

 The most nocturnal were two male mountain lions living in small, isolated natural areas with many trails, high levels of recreation, and surrounded by intense development and freeways. Both individuals occupied two of the smallest home ranges ever recorded for adult males. P41, the study’s most nocturnal lion, lived in the Verdugo Mountains, a small mountain range spanning several cities.

The famous “Hollywood Cat,” P22, preferred to stay out of the limelight. P22, who managed to cross two busy freeways as a young lion to earn fame, hearts and a home in active Griffith Park, was the second most nocturnal lion studied. He died in 2022 when he was roughly 12 years old — one of the oldest cats in the study.

The authors said the urban experiences of P41, P22 and others in the study illustrate how, when faced with increased human activity, mountain lions actively seek to avoid people rather than becoming habituated to them. 

How people can help

Still, the authors note, this doesn’t mean mountain lions should do all the work. People can help protect themselves and mountain lions by being aware that dawn or dusk is prime time for mountain lion activity. They can also be extra cautious when driving at night, when mountain lions in populated areas are more likely to be active. 

Mountain lions in the Los Angeles area deal with many challenges — busy roadways where they’re often killed, wildfires, rodenticide exposure, low genetic diversity and fragmented habitat. 

“Even something as innocuous as recreation can add to these other stressors we’re bringing into their lives, potentially by altering the amount of energy they have to expend for hunting and other needs,” Bolas said. “But we can feel a sense of optimism that they are flexible in the timing of their activity. Coexistence is happening, and it’s in large part because of what mountain lions are doing.” 

The study’s additional co-authors include Adam Pingatore and Daniel Blumstein of UCLA, Maya Mathur of Harvard Westlake High School, Jeff Sikich of the National Park Service, Justine Smith of UC Davis, John Benson of University of Nebraska and Rachel Blakey of California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, and UCLA.

The study was supported through funding from the National Science Foundation, National Park Service, La Kretz Center for California Conservation at UCLA, and the UC Davis Graduate Group in Ecology Fellowship.

  

Ellie Bolas, a PhD Candidate at UC Davis, uses radio telemetry to locate research animals in Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area.

One of P13's kittens enjoys a sunrise meal in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles, California in 2014. P13 was among the least nocturnal lions studied.

P41, the most nocturnal mountain lion in the study, lived in the Verdugo Mountains near Los Angeles, an area with high levels of human recreation.

P22, the well-known "Hollywood Cat," was among the mountain lions of Los Angeles who shifted his activities to be more nocturnal in response to humans.

Journal

Biological Conservation

DOI

10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110812 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Human recreation influences activity of a large carnivore in an urban landscape

Article Publication Date

15-Nov-2024

 

Smart robots could withstand waves to cut green energy costs

University of Edinburgh

Underwater robots that can predict waves in real-time could reduce the cost of producing offshore renewable energy, a study suggests.

New technology that enables robots to work stably in turbulent seas could make it cheaper, faster and safer to maintain offshore wind farms and tidal turbines, researchers say.

Until now, the unpredictable nature of waves – which make it difficult for machines to remain stable and perform precise movements – has limited the use of robots in the upkeep of offshore platforms.

Stationing autonomous robots offshore to perform routine maintenance would reduce the cost of generating renewable energy, which is typically much higher than using fossil fuels, the team says.

It could also simplify operations – which currently can involve ships and helicopters or hoisting equipment out of the water – and remove the need for people to work in dangerous settings.  

Engineers at the University of Edinburgh developed new computational and experimental tools to enable autonomous robots to maintain a steady position amid irregular, buffeting waves.

The researchers trialled their system at the University’s FloWave testing tank, using wave data captured by a buoy in the North Sea to mimic the types of conditions robots might work in.

Wave-detecting devices are tethered to the seafloor and measure the direction and height of incoming waves, relaying the information in real-time to a robot working nearby. This enables the unmanned machine to pre-empt complex future disturbances in the water, precisely counteracting these to maintain a stable position.

Findings indicate the system is compatible with robots operating near the surface and those working at greater depths, where disturbances can still be felt strongly.

The new technology improves on conventional control systems, the team says, which operate in a corrective fashion. These are prone to responding slowly to the fast-changing disturbances of the ocean, making them much less reliable in such hazardous environments.

Dr Kyle Walker, who developed the work as part of his PhD at the University of Edinburgh, said: “A major limitation at present is robots’ ability to perceive and counteract environmental disturbances effectively, which fundamentally restricts the current use of small subsea vehicles. By forming a prediction of future wave disturbances and integrating this within the control system, we're able to expand this range with little to no change to the robot hardware.

“In terms of translating this technology into the field, this is a huge benefit and makes our system applicable to most vehicles currently available on the market.”

Future research aims to improve autonomous machines’ ability to perform precise tasks – such as using robotic arms to detect rust or fix electric equipment – while holding a steady position in water.

The study, published in the International Journal of Robotics Research, received funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. An open access version of the paper is available here: https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/nonlinear-model-predictive-dynamic-positioning-of-a-remotely-oper.

The work was a continuation of the now-finished ORCA Hub project, an initiative to support the green energy transition led by Heriot-Watt University and the University of Edinburgh.

Dr Francesco Giorgio-Serchi, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of Engineering, who led the study, said: “Increasing the use of autonomous robots to help maintain offshore renewable installations could have a transformative effect on cutting the cost of producing clean energy. Advancing this technology further could help bring about a step change in the adoption of unmanned robots at sea and drastically increase the degree of automation in the offshore sector.”

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Journal

The International Journal of Robotics Research

DOI

10.1177/02783649241286909 

 

Land-use policy rethink vital to hit net zero

Changing how land-use subsidies are implemented would give UK taxpayers better value for money and improve chances of meeting environmental targets such as Net Zero

University of Exeter

A fundamental shift in how land-use subsidies are implemented would give taxpayers better value for money and improve the UK’s chances of meeting its environmental targets. 

The government’s commitment to the biggest expansion in woodland for half a century to reach Net Zero by 2050 requires them to pay landowners to convert agricultural land into woodland.

These payments are allocated using flat-rate subsidies, which provide a consistent per-hectare payment to landowners regardless of the suitability of the land for tree-planting.  

Researchers from the University of Exeter Business School have demonstrated that these flat-rate subsidies are not only ineffective but could actually increase net greenhouse gas emissions. 

This is because paying a flat rate for land incentivises subsidy uptake from lower agricultural productivity farms, frequently located on carbon rich soils where tree growth is poor and where planting acts to dry out peaty soils, resulting in greenhouse gas emissions rather than sequestration.

The solution, they argue, is to stop offering subsidies everywhere and instead target subsidies based on their expected effects. This ‘Natural Capital’ approach prioritises areas with the greatest environmental, climate change, biodiversity and recreational value.

In a study published in PNAS, the researchers tested three approaches to subsidy allocation: the current flat rate, the Natural Capital approach, and the ‘Land Use Scenarios’ approach, as set out by the UK National Ecosystem Assessment which promotes tree planting in most areas.

The researchers compare these three approaches using the NEV (Natural Environment Valuation) decision support system, which integrates natural, physical and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural and economic outcomes.

Maps of new afforestation show the spatial distribution of the different approaches, with flat-rate subsidies leading to forest planting clustered into areas where financial returns to farming are lowest, making planting subsidies more attractive.

Although this approach delivers a number of benefits it provided poor value for money against the policy’s main objective of carbon storage. Uptake of subsidies on carbon rich soils led to the overall release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The Land Use Scenarios, while spreading woodland across the largest area of Great Britain and storing high volumes of greenhouse gases, almost doubled the cost of subsidies with planting on some of the most agriculturally productive areas the country.

The Natural Capital approach was found to deliver the best results environmentally, socially and in terms of value for taxpayer money.

Based on the Natural Capital Framework – the basis of the UK Government’s 25 Year Environment Plan – the approach resulted in a greater concentration of planting in and around major urban areas, which generated improved recreational access to high quality environments for large urban populations and delivered an overall net benefit that is 50% higher than the current flat-rate approach. The approach also improved biodiversity an, perhaps most importantly, resulted in a much better outcome for the climate, meeting the net zero requirement of removing 13MtCO2 annually by 2050.

Professor Ian Bateman, Director of the Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute at the University of Exeter Business School, said: “The flat-rate payment approach to the implementation of policy objectives is so globally commonplace that its relative inefficiency goes unnoticed. This study lays these failings bare and shows that the decision-making approach adopted to implement policy can have a very highly substantial impact on the effectiveness of that policy.

“By targeting public money to those places it has its greatest benefits we can address climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, and hugely improve value for money to the taxpayer. 

“This is no minor technical issue; if different approaches yield different results, then how we make decisions changes the decisions we make.”

“How to make land use policy decisions: Integrating science and economics to deliver connected climate, biodiversity and food objectives” is published in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science).

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2407961121 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

How to make land use policy decisions: Integrating science and economics to deliver connected climate, biodiversity and food objectives

Article Publication Date

13-Nov-2024

 

Genetic legacy of Jomon hunter-gatherers linked to increased BMI in modern Japanese

Trinity College Dublin

New research exploring the roots of modern Japanese populations has linked the genetic signature of Jomon hunter-gatherers to a higher body mass index (BMI) among individuals, underlining that ancient human ancestors can leave a genetic legacy with impacts on health in modern day populations.

The research – just published in leading international journal Nature Communications – also found broad support for the “tripartite ancestry model”. This effectively means variations in modern day Japanese genetic patterns can be explained by the historical influence of ancient Jomon hunter-gatherers and two continental groups from Northeast and East Asia that collectively left their genetic imprint on the people of today.

The research analysed genetic data from Biobank Japan (including over 170,000 individuals), along with ancient Japanese and Eurasian genomes, as well as those from East Asian individuals from the UK Biobank. In total, the analyses used genetic data of ancient and modern genomes that involved over 250,000 participants.

BMI links

The researchers tested associations of Jomon ancestry with 80 different complex traits (from height to BMI) by making robust adjustments for genetic and geographic subpopulations.

They found that the Jomon genetic signature, which on average accounts for 12.5% of a person’s genetic make-up, was associated with an increased BMI. And that held true when they expanded their analyses to include East Asian individuals in the UK Biobank – underlining the robustness of this trait that echoes from a largely forgotten time. 

Shigeki Nakagome, Assistant Professor in Trinity College Dublin’s School of Medicine is a senior author of the research. He said: “Overall, these results suggest that the genetic legacy of the ancient hunter-gatherer Jomon significantly influences BMI across populations today, regardless of geographic differences, and it may consequently contribute to an increased risk of obesity. 

“It is a really important discovery that ancient hunter-gatherer ancestry is likely to play a key role in the health of modern day populations. The link to an increased BMI could also help to explain some of the disparities in obesity prevalence among Asian populations residing in Western countries. 

“By emphasising the importance of incorporating Jomon ancestry as a factor in BMI, this analysis essentially provides a proof-of-concept for research that bridges our human past with current health challenges.” 

The tripartite model

A long-standing model of Japanese origins is a dual-ancestral structure  comprising the Jomon, who were hunter-gatherer-fishers who inhabited the archipelago as far back as 16,500 years ago, and immigrant farmers from Northeast Asia. This was recently refined by the tripartite model, which also incorporates East Asian ancestry linked to the state formation phase, the Kofun period, which began around 1,700 years ago.

And the new research found strong support for that tripartite model.

Prof. Nakagome added: “Our analysis, which presents the first in-depth characterisation of the tripartite structure across the entire Japanese archipelago, widely and consistently fits better than the dual structure hypothesis. It also unveils substantial variation in the proportion of Jomon ancestry, mirroring the genetic ancestry continuum observed in present-day populations. 

“The field of ancient genomics is rapidly evolving, and future research that encompasses a diverse range of ancient humans across various time periods and geographic locations will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the extent to which the human past has shaped genomic and phenotypic variation in contemporary populations. I am sure there is much left to discover, both in Japanese populations, and in others across the globe.”

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-024-54052-0 

 

Markets for forest products respond to technology

New Southern Forest Outlook report now available

USDA Forest Service ‑ Southern Research Station

Asheville, NC — Technology is changing every facet of the forest products market. That may mean fewer jobs in the future as the industry shifts to labor-saving technology, with the steepest declines in the pulp and paper sector, according to a new report released by the USDA Forest Service’s Southern Research Station and Southern Region, as well as the Southern Group of State Foresters.

“From how trees are cut, to how they are processed at sawmills, and every step in between, technology is changing the industry,” said Forest Service scientist Jeff Prestemon who specializes in forest economics. “Researchers are partnering with the forest products industry to find ways to recycle and use materials that typically would be discarded as waste.”

Prestemon co-authored the report – Markets in the Southern Forest Outlook – with economist Jinggang Guo from Louisiana State University.

The new report analyzes six scenarios for the future and how each might impact the forest products markets in the South. The analysis considers how changes in income, population, climate, technology, and trade openness could affect markets.

The report also found:

• The South is projected to continue to be a net exporter of forest products.
• Prices of industrial roundwood are projected to rise, reversing recent downward trends.
• If mass timber were more widely used, the southern softwood market would strengthen.
• Additional trade barriers would enhance softwood exports and reduce hardwood exports.
• Most scenarios project a growth in wood pellet production in the South.

The report is part of a regional assessment, known as the Southern Forest Outlook. Its goal is to inform forest sector decision makers and the interested public about observed trends, anticipated futures, and critical issues based on authoritative synthesis and interpretation of existing science, data, and projections. This is the first of four reports that will be released in the coming months. A report on water is expected next month.

For decades, Forest Service scientists have conducted region-wide assessments of natural resources in the South. In fact, results from past assessments were used to develop research priorities for the Southern Research Station, including fire, water, markets, and restoration. The Southern Research Station and the Forest Service’s Southern Region work closely with the Southern Group of State Foresters, and the results of the markets report are organized by state.

The Southern Forest Outlook relies on the same core scenarios as the 2020 Resources Planning Act Assessment, which in turn relies on climate projections developed by the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The four main scenarios vary along two axes: high, moderate, or low amounts of economic growth and warming. The research team modified two scenarios to explore how markets would be affected if mass timber became more widely used in construction and if existing forest product trade restrictions were tightened.

“Wood is actually a new trend in sustainable building,” said Prestemon. “Mass timber, as it’s called, is produced to be strong enough to replace concrete or steel. If mass timber continues to catch on, then the South’s softwood market would grow.”

In all scenarios, the number of jobs across forest product sector is projected to decline. The steepest declines are projected for the paper manufacturing sector, due to labor-saving technologies and reduced demand for newsprint and printing and writing paper. The pulp and paper sector also includes packaging and sanitary papers, which is closely related to economic growth and are generally not projected to decline, and wood pellets. Wood pellet production is projected to rise across all southern states except in the scenario that combines high warming and low economic growth. The chapter also includes a section on the market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new report builds on the Southern Forest Futures Project, which was completed in 2012. Since then, the southern forest products sector has experienced significant changes including rising timber inventory, declining softwood timber prices, increased barriers to international trade, and continued contraction of the forest sector workforce despite growth in production.

Read the report. 

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About Us 

The Southern Research Station, headquartered in Asheville, N.C., is comprised of more than 100 scientists who conduct natural resources research in 20 locations across 13 Southern states, from Virginia to Texas. The station’s mission is to create the science and technology needed to sustain and enhance southern forest ecosystems and the benefits they provide. Learn more about the Station.

The Forest Service’s Southern Region oversees 14 national forests and two special units in 13 states and Puerto Rico, working with states and private landowners to sustain the health, diversity and productivity of forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations. Learn more about the Southern Region.

The Southern Group of State Foresters represents state forestry agencies within the 13 Southeastern U.S., and the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Its members collectively provide leadership, coordination, expertise and resources to sustain the economic, environmental, health and societal benefits of Southern forests. Learn more about the Southern Group of State Foresters.

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DOI

10.2737/SRS-GTR-275 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Markets: An Analysis to Support the Southern Forest Outlook

Article Publication Date

14-Nov-2024