BALOCHISTAN IS A COUNTRY

No quick fixes in Balochistan

Rafiullah Kakar 

Published November 16, 2024 

DAWN

THE deadly terrorist attack in Quetta has reignited debates surrounding the security situation in Balochistan. Predictably, hawkish voices have sought to discredit advocates for political reconciliation. This knee-jerk reaction merits a nuanced response.

There is no question that the escalation of violence by Baloch separatists has resulted in appalling attacks against innocent civilians, notably labourers, coal miners, truck drivers and others. These acts warrant unequivocal condemnation, and it is imperative that we stand united in denouncing violence against citizens merely seeking to work and live in peace.

Nonetheless, during such tragic situations, we must also guard against those who push their agenda for intensified repression of the Baloch people. Here’s why we should not adopt their hawkish narrative.

First, the Baloch insurgency is rooted in a deeply entrenched popular grievance stemming from decades of systemic political exclusion and socioeconomic marginalisation and exploitation. This grievance is pervasive, resonating across the spectrum of pro-state Baloch leaders, nationalists, and insurgents alike. Baloch grievances have historically been met with a combination of political engineering — co-optation and installation of pliant political voices — and coercion. This dual strategy may have produced an illusion of stability, but it has reinforced the underlying resentment and perception of disenfranchisement.

The reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.

The post-18th Amendment period presented a critical opportunity to foster political reconciliation and stability. Yet this opening was largely squandered. While the amendment was inadequate in its ability to address the underlying institutional drivers of Balochistan’s marginalised status, it still represented a major step towards federal harmony.

Through political and fiscal decentralisation, the amendment briefly pacified tensions, as Baloch nationalists largely engaged in the parliamentary process with renewed hope. However, this optimism was short-lived. The establishment’s de facto power at the provincial level not only endured but expanded.

Indeed, political developments since the 18th Amendment have only amplified grievances. Over the past decade, the province has seen a rapid turnover of six elected chief ministers (excluding caretaker leaders). At least two exited through the threat of no-confidence votes, allegedly backed by powerful elements in the establishment. The irony is that, despite the frequent reshuffling, the principal actors have remained nearly the same, though the political parties involved have changed because this cohort of ‘electables’ shifts political allegiances every five years at the behest of the state. This cycle of political musical chairs has left governance and public service delivery in a shambles, with little accountability.

Public procurement, jobs, and development funds have become prime conduits for rent-seeking and corruption. Street-smart politicians have adopted a simple formula for securing and retaining the chief minister’s post: the development budget is effectively parcelled out to MPAs, with the largest shares allocated to key ministers, heads of coalition partners, and non-elected ‘notables’. This approach has proven so effective that MPAs have often disregarded party lines to support the treasury benches, even when in opposition. Hence an elite class of ever-green politicians, along with their allies in the military and civil bureaucracy, have allegedly accumulated wealth and influence.

In the past, my critique of the corruption and misgovernance in Balochistan has been used by some to argue against the 18th Amendment and the seventh NFC Award. However, these issues are not a failure of decentralisation per se. Rather, the situation is an indictment of elite capture perpetuated primarily by state-sponsored political engineering.

The practice of political engineering has only intensified. The current provincial government, brought to power after the widely criticised elections of February 2024, arguably stands as one of the least legitimate coalitions in the last three decades. This persistent installation of pliant figures has eroded the legitimacy of parliamentary politics in the eyes of citizens. At the same time, state heavy-handedness has grown more pronounced: enforced disappearances of Baloch students and activists, mistreatment of peaceful protesters, and the recent strong-arming of BNP-M senators have fuelled distrust.

What state officials fail to realise is that such tactics serve only to bolster the Baloch insurgents’ narrative, who adeptly exploit these actions to portray the federal parliamentary system as ineffective and indifferent to Baloch grievances. Akhtar Mengal’s resignation from parliament stands as a striking illustration of this unfortunate reality.

In light of these realities, any strategy for peace that fails to address the foundational grievances underlying the insurgency is bound to fail.

Secondly, those advocating a more aggressive response appear to suffer from political amnesia. This hawkish stance has been the prevailing strategy for over two decades. The outcomes speak for themselves. The bitter reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.


Genuine political reconciliation, with few exceptions, has rarely been given a chance. One notable instance was the short-lived efforts of Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, whose tenure as chief minister saw an attempt at reconciliation undermined by the establishment, whose reliance on their Baloch protégés took precedence over fostering an authentic dialogue with Baloch nationalists.

The oversimplified question posed by hawks —‘how can one negotiate with those who don’t want to talk?’— obscures a more complex reality. In the climate of alienation, we may be approaching a point of no return. The situation has been compounded further by the changed character of the Baloch insurgency, where a younger, educated and more radical cadre calls the shots. The insurgency’s increasingly urban and decentralised nature renders traditional reconciliation efforts insufficient, even if all other factors were conducive.

Clearly, there are no simple solutions or quick fixes. However, confidence-building measures could help lay the groundwork for future political engagement. At a minimum, such CBMs should achieve these objectives: ensuring genuine political representation, ending enforced disappearances, and reducing the reliance on force. CBMs along these lines could open the door to a path of political reconciliation. Short of such CBMs, the future of Balochistan looks bleak.

Balochistan politics

Rafiullah Kakar 

Published November 16, 2023
DAWN

BALOCHISTAN has again captured the spotlight, courtesy of Nawaz Sharif’s strategic foray into the province to court electables from BAP and other parties in a bid to solidify PML-N’s position ahead of the polls. The influx of over two dozen electables into PML-N begs a critical evaluation of Islamabad’s approach towards Balochistan. The national discourse has almost always attributed the plight of Balochistan to its own predatory and corrupt political elite, particularly the tribal sardars. While Balochistan’s people generally agree with this assessment, they stress a crucial exception: these predatory elites owe their sustenance primarily to the patronage emanating from Islamabad.

The genesis of the predatory political behaviour of traditional elites in Balochistan can be traced to the tribal governance system of the British. Popularly known as the ‘Sandeman system’, the colonial frontier governance model corrupted tribal social structures and fortified the position of tribal sardars by extending to them patronage in exchange for performing specific administrative functions. Tribal sardars thus became integral to a two-way patron-client relationship, acting as both clients of the colonial state and patrons of their tribal subjects.

The postcolonial state perpetuated this policy of ‘indirect rule’ through the tribal sardars. Although the introduction of representative democracy opened avenues for commoners to enter the political arena, the de facto power of the sardars endured, courtesy of the patronage received from Islamabad. The Islamabad-sardar alliance symbolises a marriage of convenience, with the state providing patronage in return for sardars’ countering assertive Baloch nationalists and downplaying thorny issues straining Baloch-Islamabad ties.

Since Balochistan’s establishment as a province in 1970, it has predominantly witnessed rule by Islamabad-backed tribal elites. In the period from 1970 to 2023, Balochistan experienced civilian rule for only 28 years, with countrywide parties governing for approximately 22 years (82 per cent), leaving ethno-regional parties with a mere six years (18pc). Countrywide parties like the PML-N, PPP, and PTI have remained primary conduits for the traditional sardars and newly emerging electables, generally hailing from the mercantile class. They have switched political allegiances frequently. Despite their penchant for political nomadism, these turncoats find ready acceptance in the very parties they had deserted previously.

Ruling through electables has hindered parties’ organic growth.

In the current scenario, the influx of electables into the PML-N raises eyebrows about the party’s strategy for the restive province. Given the proclivity, and proven track record, of these electables to change political loyalties opportunistically, the PML-N leadership should prioritise the medium- and long-term goal of cultivating a genuine support base among the masses. Of all the parties, the PML-N should know better that these electables are trustworthy neither in the short nor medium term.

It was only in 2018 that the PML-N chief minister in Balochistan, Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, was deserted by more than two-thirds of his own party members in support of a no-confidence motion filed by the opposition. Requiring a simple majority (33 votes) to continue as Leader of the House, the PML-N, with 21 members in the provincial assembly, should have comfortably thwarted the motion with the support of coalition partners whose combined strength was 25. However, it couldn’t retain the loyalty of even nine out of 21 members and collapsed like a house of cards. Despite this experience, the PML-N leadership appears reluctant to learn from the past. The opportunistic and inconsistent behaviour of countrywide parties to­­wa­rds political turncoats ren­­­ders them susceptible to ex­­ternal ma­­­nipulation when political fortunes reverse.

This policy of ruling the province through electables has hindered the organic growth of political parties and fostered the growth of non-partisan, predatory political behaviour in the province.

Further, it has fostered and cemented patronage-based provision of public goods and services at the expense of systemic reforms and service delivery. Lastly, it has weakened the public accountability of elected representatives, who increasingly rely on state patronage rather than popular support to enhance their chances of re-election.

In conclusion, the embrace of proven turncoats carries damaging implications for both political culture and public service delivery. Moving forward, the countrywide parties and the ruling elite in Islamabad, at the minimum, must acknowledge their complicity in Balochistan’s crisis of political leadership rather than shifting the blame onto the province’s citizens.

The writer is a public policy and development specialist from Balochistan.
X: @rafiullahkakar

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

What Kamala’s loss portends

The scale of Trump’s resurgence confirms that his 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke.

OPINION
Anis Shivani 

November 16, 2024

DAWN

MUCH of the election postmortem predictably focuses on the mistakes made by Kamala Harris, but I want to take a step back for a big-picture explanation of the Democrats’ across-the-board losses in the 2024 elections.

No doubt Joe Biden and his quick-fix successor’s missteps contributed to the wipeout, but the fundamental reason for the latest liberal setback against the ballooning hypernationalist threat is the political paralysis the declining empire confronts in its last days.

Running with discredited neocons like Liz Cheney, refusing to let a Muslim American speak during the convention, and hoping to run on vibes and joy alone were terrible concessions to the consultant-driven politics of corporate empowerment, but why did the Democratic Party prefer self-marginalisation rather than make any real effort to address economic pain and end the wars?

The scale of Donald Trump’s resurgence is confirmation that his initial 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke. Rather, the Obama era of strident identity politics plus pint-sized economic initiatives has received a definite rebuke. The 2024 election bears comparison to 1980 and 2000 for the working class’s rejection of the very policies neoliberals thought would benefit them. I wouldn’t describe it as realignment, which was mistakenly applied to 2004 and 2008 as well. This designation is thrown around by political operatives every few years, and except for 1968, in the wake of the Vietnam debacle and the South’s backlash towards civil rights legislation, is rarely applicable.

Trump will probably overreach in dismantling the administrative state as per Project 2025. The attempts to finish off the regulatory state in every sphere of life will cause unbearable pain. He will also try to impose stiff universal tariffs and implement mass deportations through administrative means and actual roundups. As these measures reignite inflation, his newly assembled coalition of working-class voters will shatter. By the next electoral cycle, they will be eager to move on, not that there will be any help forthcoming from the De­­m­ocrats in alleviating their declining quality of life.

Trump 2.0 is a different beast than the first incarnation. Inchoate isolationist tendencies — really, the desire of empire to terminate itself — have lately merged with the billionaire class’s overt interest in returning to the pre-New Deal era of zero regulation, buttressed by the state’s muscular punitiveness in keeping the working class in check.

Trump arrives infinitely better prepared than the last time, with loyalists ready with det­ai­led plans to have an immediate go at everything that makes life worth living. Even accomplishing a fraction of these aims, particularly with respect to migration and tariffs, will cause an upheaval, lea­ding to another oscillation in political fortunes.

The scale of Trump’s resurgence confirms that his 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke.

Every election now seems to be a change election. The last time there was any substantive bip­artisan legislative progress was when Bill Clinton put in place the foundations of neoliberal globalisation, followed by George W. Bush’s implementation of the surveillance state. Obamacare, a form of privatised medicine, yielded the Tea Party, and in part Trumpism. Each time there is a grassroots progressive upsurge, as with Ralph Nader in 2000 or Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, the final result seems to be a massive rightward shift. The electorate has endorsed the same move this time.

Although much of the criticism of Harris’s loss will rightly focus on her unwillingness to offer any coherent economic message to alleviate the cost of living beyond bits and pieces, neither Biden nor Harris touted the progressive milestones they did achieve. It might sound surprising to praise Biden, but he was undoubtedly far to the left of Obama, and a down payment was made on clean energy, infrastructure rebuilding, industrial policy, and anti-trust regulation. Biden’s precipitous slide in popularity began when he rightly followed through on withdrawing from Afghanistan.






The original Build Back Better plan, whose care economy components were mostly removed, seems like an impossible dream in the wake of Harris’s rightward lurch. The Biden presidency can also be interpreted as a managed letdown from the peak of progressive enthusiasm, as social safety measures to soften the pandemic were abolished, but at least there was rhetorical fidelity to­­w­ards strengthening worker rights.

Immigration was rightly loosened up, to meet the enormous shortfall of workers, and the rate of growth of inflation, to which Trump’s previous tariffs and immigrat­­­ion restrictions contributed as much as pandemic-era supply chain shortages, were down considerably.

But why would Biden and Harris never run on the back of these initiatives? Why did Trumpian xenophobia and cultural paranoia, exemplified in the fear of transgendered people, so completely push Biden’s legislative efforts to the background? I don’t believe that the outcome of the election was inevitable, despite the ravages of inflation. Harris could have built on Biden’s rudimentary economic progressivism, and offered young people hope for a financially sustainable future and a way out of the dual wars of choice. But she didn’t, and it wasn’t coincidental.

There seems to be more soul-searching on the part of liberals than after 2004, and certainly 2016, when it was all too easy to blame Trump as an outlier and his voters as deplorables, and then spend years trying to disqualify him and his movement as criminal enterprises.

But what do you do when large numbers of working people of all races gravitate towards the party whose tariffs and migration crackdowns will cause enormous economic disruption? Is there even a language that exists to speak to such voters about the benefits of openness, after four decades of the neoliberal zero-sum game pitting individual against individual? Perhaps there is, but it wasn’t tried.

The healthiest outcome for the rest of the world would be for the MAGA movement to actually disengage from international linkages. This is the fatal blow the empire seems determined to inflict upon itself and it ultimately explains why progressive initiatives, large or small, cannot satisfy the rotten emptiness at the core. It was, finally, less a failure of strategy or tactics that doomed Harris than the downward trajectory of empire that now seems unstoppable.

The writer’s political books include Why Did Trump Win?

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Mushroom houses for Gaza? Arab designers offer home-grown innovations

By AFP

November 15, 2024

Mushroom-based structures are an appealing alternative to the shelters now housing many displaced Gazans - Copyright AFP FADEL SENNA

Sahar Al Attar

As winter descends on Gaza’s tent cities, emergency housing made from mushrooms could keep out the cold — just one of several sustainable, home-grown innovations put forward by Arab designers at an expo in Dubai.

Lightweight, warm and versatile, mushroom-based structures are an appealing alternative to the flimsy shelters now housing many thousands of Gazans displaced by more than a year of war, according to Dima Al Srouri, a member of the ReRoot initiative.

“Right now, there is a huge problem with the shelters that they’re receiving from NGOs,” she said at Dubai Design Week, which featured a range of environment-friendly innovations.

“When the winter comes, when it rains, when it’s too cold, they’re not working really.”

Mycelium, the root-like part of a fungus, can be grown in combination with organic matter to fit different-shaped moulds, producing a strong building material that can be cultivated anywhere.

It’s “a healthy material because it’s fully natural”, urban planning expert Srouri, who is Palestinian, said next to a prototype shelter — a roomy, enclosed structure with windows and a sloping roof.

“It’s something that can provide the solution to extreme weather conditions to protect them from the extreme cold.”

ReRoot’s emergency housing was not the only example of sustainable Arab design at the annual exhibition in Dubai, which closed on Sunday.

Contrasting with the towering high-rises that dominate the city’s skyline, Emirati architect and designer Abdalla Almulla is championing a very different approach: low-rise buildings made from recycled construction waste.

Almulla has teamed up with the Swiss company Oxara, which makes a low-carbon cement replacement, to create structures built with discarded concrete from demolished buildings and roofing made from palm fronds — a nod to the Gulf’s ancient construction techniques.

“When I look back, especially in the region where I’m living, a lot of the architecture and designs were based on finding what’s surrounding you, finding material around you and then being innovative and creating out of it,” Almulla said.

The model is intended as a riposte to the “world of abundance” that has come to characterise modern design, he added.

“Whenever you want… something, you need to ship it from halfway around the world.”


– Sustainability ‘not a luxury’ –


As well as the large-scale installations, smaller objects were on display, including furniture made from recycled materials and a 3D-printed electric motorcycle.

Faheem Khan, a Qatar-based designer, developed a bottle that minimises water consumption during Wudu, the ritual washing performed by Muslims before prayer.

Elif Resitoglu of Isola Design, the Milan-based studio that organised the exhibition, said sustainability was a “new thing” for Arab designers.

But they “blended it into their culture”, designing objects that “a Western designer could not actually design”, she said.

While the region is more concerned with conflicts than environmental matters, tackling the issue “is not a luxury”, said Srouri.

“For me, I always believe that the best way to do activism is through your work,” she said.

“You don’t have to shout out loud on the streets… Sometimes the solution can be through your knowledge and expertise and sharing it to solve other people’s challenges.”

The UAE, a major oil producer which hosted the UN’s COP28 climate talks last year, is one of the world’s largest emitters of CO2 per capita.

It is also in one of the hottest regions in the world, making it especially vulnerable to climate change.

According to climate data, the Middle East is warming at a rate nearly twice as fast as the global average.

Palestinians turn to local soda in boycott of Israel-linked goods

By AFP
November 15, 2024


Chat Cola has tapped into Palestinians' desire to move away from companies perceived as too supportive of Israel - Copyright AFP Arun SANKAR

Louis Baudoin-Laarman and Hossam Ezzedine

In a red box factory that stands out among the drab hills of the West Bank, Chat Cola’s employees race to quench Palestinians’ thirst for local products since the Gaza war erupted last year.

With packaging reminiscent of Coca-Cola’s iconic red and white aluminium cans, Chat Cola has tapped into Palestinians’ desire to shun brands perceived as too supportive of Israel.

“The demand for (Chat Cola) increased since the war began because of the boycott,” owner Fahed Arar, told AFP at the factory in the occupied West Bank town of Salfit.

Julien, a restaurateur in the city of Ramallah further south, said he has stocked his classic red Coca-Cola branded fridge with the local alternative since the war began in October last year.

Supermarket manager Mahmud Sidr described how sales of Palestinian products surged over the past year.

“We noticed an increase in sales of Arab and Palestinian products that do not support (Israel),” he said.

Although it does not supply Israeli troops in Gaza with free goods — as some US fast food brands have been rumoured to — Coca-Cola is perceived as simply too American.

The United States provides enormous military assistance to Israel, aid that has continued through the devastating military campaign in Gaza that Israel launched in response to Hamas’s unprecedented attack of October 7, 2023.

Coca-Cola did not respond to a request for comment, but it says the company does not support religion nor “any political causes, governments or nation states”.

A manager of the National Beverage Company, the Palestinian firm bottling Coca-Cola in the Palestinian territories, told AFP the company had not noticed the return of many products from local stores.

There was however a decline of up to 80 percent in the drink’s sales to foreign-named chains, said the manager, speaking on condition of anonymity.



– Not just cola –



“The national boycott movement has had a big impact,” Arar said.

Ibrahim al-Qadi, head of the Palestinian economy ministry’s consumer protection department, told AFP that 300 tonnes of Israeli products were destroyed over the past three months after passing their sell-by date for want of buyers.

The Palestinian economy’s dependence on Israeli products has made a broader boycott difficult and Chat Cola’s popularity partly stems from being one of the few quality Palestinian alternatives.

“There’s a willingness to boycott if the Palestinian producers can produce equivalently good quality and price,” the head of the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, Raja Khalidi, told AFP.

Khalidi said the desire for Palestinian substitutes has grown sharply since the war in Gaza began, but is stifled by “an issue of production capacity which we lack”.

A boycott campaign has been more successful in neighbouring Arab states less dependent on Israeli goods.

In neighbouring Jordan, the franchisee of French retail giant Carrefour, Dubai-based conglomerate Majid Al Futtaim Group announced it was shutting down all its operations after activists called for a boycott.



– ‘Palestinian taste’ –



Chat Cola’s Arar is proud of developing a quality Palestinian product.

Staff at the company’s Salfit factory wear sweaters emblazoned with the words “Palestinian taste” in Arabic and the Palestinian flag.

After opening the factory in 2019, Arar plans to open a new one in Jordan to meet international demand and avoid the complications of operating in the occupied West Bank.

Although the plant still turns out thousands of cans of Chat, one production line has been shut down for more than a month.

Israeli authorities have held up a large shipment of raw materials at the Jordanian border, hitting output, Arar said, adding he can meet only 10 to 15 percent of demand for his product.

As Arar spoke, Israeli air defences intercepted a rocket likely launched from Lebanon, creating a small cloud in view of the plant.

But with war have come opportunities.

“There has never been the political support for buying local that there is now, so it’s a good moment for other entrepreneurs to start up,” economist Khalidi said.

Dutch govt could fall over handling of Amsterdam PROTEST  violence: media report

Reuters | Dawn.com | Anadolu Agency

Published November 15, 2024 

A man carries Palestinian flags in Dam Square in front of the Royal Palace of Amsterdam on November 15. — AFP

The Dutch cabinet met in an emergency session on Friday amid reports the coalition could implode over the government’s handling of violence linked to a Europa League football match involving an Israeli team, local media reported.

Nora Achahbar, junior finance minister in the coalition led by anti-Muslim populist Geert Wilders’ PVV, had earlier resigned over remarks by ministers on Monday about clashes around the match between Ajax Amsterdam and Maccabi Tel Aviv, several media reported, citing sources in the ongoing cabinet session.

Achahbar’s resignation led to the crisis cabinet meeting on Friday afternoon in which other cabinet members of her centrist NSC party also threatened to quit, broadcasters NOS and RTL said, citing government sources.

Achahbar felt several cabinet members had “crossed a line with hurtful and possibly racist comments about the attacks on Israeli football fans” in Amsterdam and riots in the days after the match, Dutch paper De Volkskrant reported.

Wilders has repeatedly said, “Dutch youth of Moroccan descent were the main attackers of the Israeli fans”. But the police have given no details about the background of the suspects.

Neither Wilders nor Achahbar, who was born in Morocco and served as public prosecutor before she joined the government in July, were available to comment as the cabinet meeting was ongoing on Friday afternoon.

Party leaders have been summoned to join the cabinet meeting on Friday evening, media said. Achahbar’s office and government spokespeople could not be immediately reached by Reuters.

If the NSC party pulls out, the other three coalition members would either have to go ahead as a minority coalition or call early elections.

Achahbar’s resignation follows a turbulent week in Amsterdam, where the local police department has said Maccabi fans last week attacked a taxi and burned a Palestinian flag before being chased and beaten by gangs on scooters.

While unanimously condemning the violence, left-wing parties have called for dialogue with the Muslim community instead of “dividing the country”.

“I share the condemnation of the violence in Amsterdam and yes, there was indeed anti-Semitic violence,” left-wing opposition leader Frans Timmermans said.

“You are simply stoking the fires while this country has a need for politicians to unite people and find solutions,” Timmermans told Wilders.

According to social media videos, eyewitness accounts, and pro-Palestinian activists, the Maccabi supporters had armed themselves with sticks and rocks earlier in the day and shouted provocative anti-Arab chants.

Jazie Veldhuyzen, a senior city councillor, had earlier confirmed that Israeli hooligans instigated the violence in Amsterdam. He stressed the need for a thorough and objective examination.

He said that on Wednesday night, “Maccabi hooligans had initiated to attack houses with Palestinian flags and pro-Palestinian Amsterdammers. That’s when the violence started.”

Amsterdam’s Police Chief Peter Holla had also confirmed that Maccabi supporters attacked a taxi and set a Palestinian flag on fire on Wednesday, according to the BBC.

Prime Minister Dick Schoof on Monday said the incidents showed that some of the youth in the Netherlands with a migration background did not share “Dutch core values”.

GAZA:  Genocidal violence

Editorial

Published November 16, 2024 

DAWN


A RECENTLY released UN report confirms what many around the world already know: that Israel has been using genocidal violence to wipe out the Palestinian population in Gaza. As per the findings of the UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices, Tel Aviv “is intentionally causing death, starvation and serious injury” in the besieged Palestinian territory. Moreover, the report finds that Israel’s practices in Gaza “are consistent with the characteristics of genocide”. This is no empty rhetoric, as the UN body has documented several examples of Israeli savagery in Gaza ever since the events of Oct 7, 2023. For instance, the UN committee says by February, Israel had dropped over 25,000 tonnes of explosives on the tiny Strip; this is the equivalent of two nuclear bombs used against defenceless people. Israel is often hailed by its admirers for its tech savviness; it turns out that Tel Aviv is using its tech know-how with murderous precision in Palestine. The UN report highlights that Tel Aviv is using “AI-assisted targeting, with minimal human oversight”. This means that machines are drawing up ‘kill lists’, which the Israelis are adhering to faithfully. An earlier UN investigation had also found there are “reasonable grounds” to believe Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.

Damning as these findings are, Israel has little consideration for what the UN or the world community has to say. Israel has already declared the UN secretary general ‘persona non grata’. The Zionist state knows it has the world’s sole superpower in its corner, and come January an array of pro-Israel hawks will take the reins in the Trump administration, further emboldening the extremists in Tel Aviv. European states mouth occasional entreaties about protecting the Palestinians while solidly backing Israel; on their part, the Muslim-Arab bloc can only issue strong statements in solidarity with Palestine. Is it any surprise, then, that Israel can get away with a modern, live-streamed genocidal campaign?

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

With Trump, already negligible US distance with Israel to vanish

Biden admin's stance had already shifted to unwavering support for Tel Aviv after the Oct 7 attacks, despite growing criticism.

AFP | Dawn.com 

Published November 16, 2024

For more than a year, the United States has steadfastly backed Israel in its invasion of Gaza while quietly counselling restraint on occasion. With Donald Trump’s return, the little nuance present will vanish, although his hunger for deal-making makes him less predictable.

Trump, unlike every other recent president, has not even paid lip service to a fully sovereign, independent Palestinian state.

He leads a Republican Party so pro-Israel that some local offices handed out Israeli flags alongside Trump yard signs — a far cry from President Joe Biden, whose support for Israel faced fierce criticism from the left of his Democratic Party.

And while Biden’s two ambassadors to Israel were Jewish Americans who would occasionally nudge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s pick is evangelical Christian pastor Mike Huckabee, a former governor who sees biblical reason to champion Israel.

Other Trump nominees include Senator Marco Rubio — a hawk on Iran — as secretary of state, and Representative Elise Stefanik, who made waves by assailing universities’ handling of pro-Palestinian protests, as US ambassador to the United Nations.

“They’re, like, more pro-Israel than most Israelis,” said Asher Fredman, director of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, an Israeli think tank.

He expected Trump to take an “America First” approach aimed at reducing US military resources and refocusing on countering China — which means both empowering Israel to fight enemies and encouraging its normalisation with Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia.

“There is really tremendous paradigm-shifting potential in a number of realms, such as advancing regional cooperation and putting maximum pressure on Iran,” Fredman said.
End of Biden’s approach

According to Anadolu Agency, while the Biden administration had previously balanced its approach by supporting Israel’s defence against Iran and endorsing a two-state solution, its stance shifted to unwavering support for Tel Aviv after the attacks, despite growing national and international criticism.

During the October 18, 2023 visit to Israel, Biden expressed unwavering support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, affirming the US’ solid backing.

Biden sought an additional $17.9 billion in military aid for Israel upon his return, supplementing the annual $3.5bn it already receives.

While Biden issued a memorandum in February requiring Congress to be notified if any US-funded country deliberately blocked humanitarian aid, the administration faced scrutiny for its response to humanitarian concerns in Gaza.

Blinken told Congress in May that Israel was not intentionally preventing humanitarian aid, despite reports from USAID suggesting that Israel was hindering the delivery of food assistance to Gaza.

The State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration also recommended freezing funds to Israel because of humanitarian concerns, though the calls were ultimately unheeded.

Additionally, Biden’s administration vetoed three UN Security Council resolutions calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, which heightened international criticism.

Biden has also criticised Netanyahu on occasion for the heavy toll on civilians in the relentless bombardment in Gaza and unsuccessfully sought to prevent the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

But Biden has only once exercised the ultimate US leverage — holding some of the billions of dollars in military aid to Israel — with officials insisting their quiet approach has paid off.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in a mid-October letter gave Israel a month to allow more assistance into Gaza or face cutoffs of some US weapons.

They ultimately decided not to take action, despite Israel not meeting metrics on the number of aid trucks and a new UN-backed assessment warning of imminent famine in Gaza.

Blinken told reporters Wednesday that the letter succeeded in injecting a “sense of urgency” to Israel, which addressed 12 of the 15 listed areas of concern.

Allison McManus, managing director for national security and international policy at the left-leaning Centre for American Progress, said the letter had offered an opening but that Biden wanted “near unconditional support” for Israel to be his legacy.

“Biden was very risk-averse — not wanting to rock the boat too much in terms of the traditional US support for Israel,” she said.

“He was dogmatic and quite orthodox in approaching the US-Israel relationship. Trump is, certainly, neither of those things,” she said.

Despite Trump’s stance on a Palestinian state, he has also boasted of seeking historic deals.

“There is certainly a world in which, if Netanyahu is obstinate, as he has been in reaching a ceasefire, then I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually see Trump applying some pressure,” she said.

“What that would look like, I don’t know.”

Deal not easy

Aaron David Miller, a longtime State Department advisor on the Middle East, said that Trump’s previous term showed a foreign policy that was “opportunistic, transactional and ad hoc.”

He said that Huckabee could turn out to be a “performative appointment” for political reasons, as top officials in Washington often work directly with their Middle Eastern counterparts.

But Miller said that even if Trump sought a Gaza deal, he would face some of the same impediments as Biden — the risk of Hamas surviving and the lack so far of a new security architecture.

“He cannot end the war in Gaza and won’t pressure Netanyahu to do so,” said Miller, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Elie Pieprz, director of international relations at the Israel Defence and Security Forum, said that Trump’s victory had already yielded wins for Israel, including Qatar distancing itself from mediating with Hamas and a more conciliatory tone from Iran.

As Biden had a “difficult” relationship with Israel, Trump will likely seek to ease friction, Pieprz said.

“Trump likes to see things in comparison to his opponents,” he said. Much like his domestic slogan, Pieprz said, Trump wants to “make the US-Israel relationship great again. “

Header image: Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, US, on July 26, 2024. — screengrab via Reuters

HRW accuses Israel of ‘war crime’ with ‘forcible transfer’ in Gaza


By AFP
November 14, 2024

Palestinians displaced from shelters in Beit Hanoun cross the main Salaheddine road into Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip following Israeli army evacuation orders 

- Copyright AFP Omar AL-QATTAA

Human Rights Watch said in a report released Thursday that Israel’s repeated evacuation orders in Gaza amount to the “war crime of forcible transfer”, and to “ethnic cleansing” in parts of the Palestinian territory.

“Human Rights Watch has amassed evidence that Israeli officials are… committing the war crime of forcible transfer,” the report said.

“Israel’s actions appear to also meet the definition of ethnic cleansing” in the areas where Palestinians will not be able to return, HRW added.

Nadia Hardman, an HRW researcher, noted the 172-page report’s findings are based on interviews with displaced Gazans, satellite imagery, and public reporting conducted until August 2024.

Although Israel says the displacement is justified for civilians’ safety or by military imperatives, Hardman said that “Israel cannot simply rely on the presence of armed groups to justify the displacement of civilians”.

“Israel would have to demonstrate in every instance that displacement of civilians was the only option”, to fully comply with international humanitarian law.

According to the United Nations, 1.9 million Palestinians were displaced in Gaza as of October 2024. Before the start of the war on October 7, 2023, the official population figure for the territory was 2.4 million inhabitants.

“Systematically rendering large parts of Gaza uninhabitable… in some cases permanently… amounts to ethnic cleansing,” Ahmed Benchemsi, spokesman for HRW’s Middle East division said in a press briefing.

The HRW report pointed in particular to the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, running along the Egyptian border and cutting Gaza along its east-west axis respectively, which have been “razed, extended, and cleared”, by Israel’s army to create buffer zones and security corridors.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted that Israeli forces must retain long-term control over the Philadelphi Corridor.

Hardman said Israeli forces have turned the central Netzarim corridor, between Gaza City and Wadi Gaza, into a buffer zone four kilometres (2.5 miles) wide mostly cleared of buildings.


– ‘Wipe out the north’ –


The report excludes developments in the war since August 2024, particularly an intense Israeli offensive in northern Gaza since early October 2024.

The operation has forced the displacement of at least 100,000 people from the Palestinian territory’s far north to Gaza City and surrounding areas, UN Palestinian refugee agency spokeswoman Louise Wateridge told AFP.

Ragheb al-Rubaiya, a 63-year-old Palestinian from north Gaza’s Jabalia Camp, said to AFP that he had been driven from his home after “bombing started from the air and the tanks, and they drove us out against our will”.

“They’re destroying everything in Jabalia, and the goal is clear even to the blind: to wipe out the north and cut it off from Gaza,” he added.

HRW’s report argued “the actions of the Israeli authorities in Gaza are the actions of one ethnic or religious group to remove Palestinians, another ethnic or religious group, from areas within Gaza by violent means”.

It pointed to the organised nature of the displacement, and the intention for Israeli forces to ensure affected areas will “remain permanently emptied and cleansed of Palestinians”.

Nature pays price for war in Israel’s north


By AFP
November 14, 2024

A flock of pelicans flies over the Hula Valley in northern Israel during their winter migration from Europe to Africa - Copyright AFP Menahem KAHANA

Ahikam Seri with Ruth Eglash in Tel Dan

Across northern Israel’s lush, green nature reserves, the ecological toll of the war between Israel and Hezbollah militants is laid bare: wild boar hit by shrapnel, trees reduced to ashes and swathes of charred vegetation.

In the Hula Valley, home to a unique migration sanctuary for birds, a flock of common cranes and their cacophony of calls fill the air — but smoke billows in the distance and their sounds soon compete with the whir of Israeli military helicopters overhead.

The impact is particularly clear at the Agamon Hula Valley Nature Reserve, where all that remains in some areas after more than a year of Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon are burned plants and cinder-strewn soil.

Inbar Rubin, field director at the reserve, worries about the war’s effects on birds.

“The noises of war, the sounds of interceptions, of (rockets) falling and the loud booms — these are the sounds that birds hear,” Rubin said. “It’s a huge source of stress.”

The war has driven visitors away from the reserve, which sits approximately 30 kilometres (19 miles) from the border with Lebanon.

“People say to me, ‘Wow, the birds must be happier because there are no people,’ but the damage the war does to nature is a million times more than the damage visitors do.”

The reserve is an internationally known resting spot for hundreds of millions of birds migrating from Europe and Asia to Africa and back during the spring and autumn seasons.

It is home to pelicans, ducks, eagles and other birds of prey, as well as flamingos, which Rubin said is “a fairly new phenomenon”.

But she noted that fewer birds were stopping at the sanctuary than in previous seasons, adding there was “much less nesting than in normal years” and reduced mating.



– Paradise lost? –



Hezbollah began launching low-intensity attacks on Israel last year, in solidarity with its ally Hamas following the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.

After nearly a year of trading cross-border fire with Hezbollah, Israel widened the focus of its operations from Gaza to Lebanon, launching a massive aerial campaign and sending ground forces across the border.

The bombing has devastated villages in Lebanon, especially areas along its southern border with Israel, where Hezbollah holds sway.

Around 50,000 cranes came to the reserve the previous winter, said longtime ornithologist Yossi Leshem, “and for them, it was really paradise”.

But after the Israel-Hezbollah war started, he added, the number of birds arriving dropped by 70 percent.

“It is a real threat,” said Leshem, also the founder of an international bird migration research centre. The fighting and fires have also caused food resources for the birds to dwindle.

“Even if the war will stop in a year now — and I hope it will stop as soon as possible… the impact can be felt for many more years,” he told AFP.

In the long term, however, the conflict would not ultimately change the birds’ pattern of migration, Leshem said. The birds passing through will be “less successful and so on, but finally, when the war stops, it (migration) goes on”.

The damage is not limited to the reserve.

Israel’s nature and parks authority has assessed that since the October 7 Hamas attack, around 92,400 acres (37,400 hectares) of nature reserves, national parks, forests and open areas have been burned across the country.

“The damage to nature is of course extensive and in numbers we are not used to,” said Amit Dolev, an ecologist for the authority’s northern district.

Israel’s military has said nearly 16,000 projectiles, including exploding drones, have been fired into the country from Lebanese territory, many sparking wildfires.

Others, shot down by Israel’s military, have sent shrapnel flying into open areas.



– Nature’s resilience –



At the nature reserve of Tel Dan, adjacent to the Lebanese border, around 17 acres (seven hectares) out of 400 have been devastated by fires ignited by rockets.

On the banks of the burbling Dan stream, beside the silhouette of a burnt-out blackthorn tree, Ramadan Issa, who manages the reserve, said he had spent the last year putting out fires and rescuing animals injured or distressed by the fighting.

He pointed to suffering wildlife including porcupines, snakes and wild boars injured or killed by missiles or shrapnel, as well as the destruction of ancient trees.

But on the charred earth where he stood, small green blades of grass and vegetation were already sprouting.

“Nature is strong,” Issa said. “It can grow back very fast and after the first (winter) rains, a lot will start to come back.”

COP29 and the quest for an accord acceptable to all

Zaki Abbas in Baku

Published November 16, 2024 

DAWN

At COP29, every day is a ‘leg day’, at least for journalists, who have to run from one block to another, trying to keep up with the various sessions going on simultaneously, all the while trying to get hold of their respective countries’ delegations.

The negotiations, on the other hand, are going nowhere, as the developed and developing worlds bicker over the new climate finance goal, aka the New Collective Quantified Goal.

COP29 was off to a bumpy start since the very first day, and the little headway that has been made is on standards to boost the global carbon market under Article 6.4 of the historic Paris Agreement signed in 2015.

Some of the countries were unhappy with how these guidelines were rushed through without any debate, which may pose a problem at a later stage.

There is, however, little progress on what the carbon markets will look like and how countries will evolve a consensus on carbon credits, which supposedly provide solutions to climate problems.

Controversial carbon markets, non-operationalisation of Loss and Damage fund among key sticking points

By the evening, after a delay of several hours, parties managed to agree in principle on a draft for the new finance goal, but it will be a long time before any final agreement is reached.

Supposedly, the money earned from carbon markets will be part of climate finance — a contentious issue between the North and South — as even after over a decade, its modalities still need to be hammered out.

Interestingly, some Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Ecuador who had opposed such schemes at every climate conference, seemingly gave in this time.

Activists and civil society members at COP29 see these credits as ‘false solutions’, which are not acceptable to them.
Whither loss and damage?

Let’s set aside this controversial topic for a minute. Even the Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund — which was operationalised at COP28 in Dubai — has not picked up steam.

Out of over $700 million in pledges made at the last COP, only $10 million materialised which came from Japan, according to the Loss and Damage Collaboration.

The fund was established at COP27 after 31 years of “inaction, delay and obfuscation by developed country parties since the first proposal for a Loss and Damage finance mechanism was tabled by Vanuatu on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in 1991”.

At present, the fund is empty.

The World Bank, which maintains the secretariat of this fund, says it has no control over the money supposed to be contributed to the account.

Arif Goheer, executive director of the Global Change Impact Study Centre, told Dawn at the Pakistan Pavilion there were losses to the tune of trillions, and the L&D Fund was not equipped to deal with that.

“Loss and Damage does not have even procedures,” Mr Goheer, who is privy to negotiations, said, adding that the fund should be topped up with ample amount of money keeping in view of vulnerabilities of different, especially the most-affected states with no coping capacities.

According to Mr Goheer, since the L&D Fund is for emergencies and natural disasters, it should be given instantly to help the countries cope with it instead of linking it to the project-based funding.

About the negotiations, he said G-77 and China block, which also includes Pakistan, want easy to climate funds as well as easy procedures for accessing them. The talks to agree on a climate finance goal will continue on Saturday, the official added.
Global Stocktake

Similarly, in the first week of COP29, the countries have failed to take the Global Stocktake, which could potentially delay the new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) which all parties are expected to submit by February 2025.

The global stocktake takes a look at the performance of countries with regard to their NDCs as well as set the stage for the more ambitious ones.

The Adaptation Fund has also hit a stonewall due to significant disagreements between developed and developing countries on adaptation-related matters, particularly the provision of Means of Implem­entation (MOI).

Concerns have been expressed by activist groups at COP29, who believe the presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue is counterproductive as they step up their campaign ‘Weed Out the Snakes’ and ‘Let’s Kick Big Polluters Out’.

According to Rachel Ross, there are almost 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue who are “poisoning” climate action.

On the third day of COP29, the Argentine delegation was abruptly pulled out of the conference on the orders of its president, who is a climate denier.

Its neighbour, COP30 host Brazil, has submitted its NDCs and is poised to host the next conference, which is evident from the massive pavilion in Baku.

On Monday, the conference enters its second phase with ministers from different countries coming together to hammer out an agreement acceptable to all.

Produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Oil execs work COP29 as NGOs slam lobbyist presence

By AFP

November 15, 2024

The presence of oil, gas and coal interests at the climate talks has long been a source of controversy - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV

Delphine Paysant with Kelly Macnamara in Paris

Oil executives descended on the COP29 talks in Baku for “energy day” on Friday as environmental groups denounced the presence of fossil fuel industry lobbyists at the UN climate talks.

While negotiators haggle behind closed doors on the key task of increasing climate funds for developing nations, the executives from top oil firms including France’s TotalEnergies are holding events.

The “Kick the Big Polluters Out” (KBPO) coalition of NGOs analysed accreditations at the annual climate confab, calculating that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests are in attendance.

“It’s like tobacco lobbyists at a conference on lung cancer,” David Tong from campaign group Oil Change International told AFP.

The presence of oil, gas and coal interests at the climate talks has long been a source of controversy.

The appointment of UAE state oil firm head Sultan Al Jaber to the presidency of last year’s negotiations in Dubai was a lightning rod for criticism.

And this year’s host, energy-rich Azerbaijan, launched a defence of planet-heating fossil fuels, with President Ilham Aliyev on Tuesday repeating his insistence that oil, gas and other natural resources are a “gift of God”.

“It’s unfortunate that the fossil fuel industry and the petrostates have seized control of the COP process to an unhealthy degree,” former US vice president and leading climate activist Al Gore said Thursday.

While the Dubai summit produced a global agreement on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, the follow-up commitment “has been very weak” and the issue “is hardly even mentioned” at COP29, he said.

“I have to think that one of the reasons for that is that the petrostates have too much control over the process,” he said.



– Wrangling on finance –



KBPO said Japan brought employees of coal giant Sumitomo as part of its delegation, Canada included oil producers Suncor and Tourmaline and Italy brought employees of energy giants Eni and Enel.

However, some of those on the NGO list work for companies that are not primarily fossil fuel-related, including Danish offshore wind champion Orsted.

Some 53,000 people have registered to participate in COP29 in Baku, not including technical and support staff, according to the UN.

The top priority at the talks is to agree a new figure for climate finance to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition their economies away from fossil fuels.

Rich nations are reluctant to spend much more than the $100-billion a year already committed, conscious of domestic publics angry about inflation and stuttering economies.

But developing countries warn they need at least $1 trillion to defend against the ravages of climate change and meet commitments to reach net-zero emissions.

Negotiators are struggling to wrangle a draft text into workable form before ministers arrive next week to start nailing down a deal.

Hanging over proceedings is the question of what role the United States will play on climate action and funding after Trump returns to the White House in January.

He has pledged to again withdraw from the landmark Paris agreement, raising questions about how much US negotiators can really promise and deliver in Baku.

But Gore insisted that “there is so much more momentum that even a new Trump administration is not going to be able to slow it down much,” echoed the line from other Americans at the talks.

“I hope I’m right about that,” he added.

Gore says ‘absurd’ to hold UN climate talks in petrostates


By  AFP
November 15, 2024


Former US vice president Al Gore told AFP fossil fuel industry representatives should go through a 'test' to be allowed to attend UN climate talks - Copyright AFP Kate GILLAM
Julien MIVIELLE

US vice president Al Gore told AFP Friday it was “absurd” for petrostates such as Azerbaijan to host UN climate talks, saying the selection process should be overhauled.

Mukhtar Babayev, a former oil executive who now serves as Azerbaijan’s ecology minister, chairs COP29 in Baku while the country’s leader, Ilham Aliyev, caused a stir this week by calling fossil fuels a “gift of the God”.

It comes after last year’s climate talks in the oil-dependent United Arab Emirates — presided over by the head of its state oil company — also raised hackles among activists.

“I think it is absurd to have these petrostates that are so dependent on continuing the sale of oil and gas be the hosts of these COPs, because it’s hard to miss the fact that they have a direct conflict of interest,” Gore told AFP.

“The president said they’re a gift from God, and I understand his sentiment, but in my opinion we should reform this process,” the Nobel Peace Prize laureate said.

Azerbaijan was picked to host COP29 after Bulgaria dropped out due to Russian objections to having the conference held in a European Union country.

It was Eastern Europe’s turn to host this year’s Conference of the Parties.

Speaking on the sidelines of the talks in Baku, Gore said the United Nations secretary general should be able to participate in the selection process for cities and COP presidents.

The current process “meant that Russia vetoed everyone except Azerbaijan. And of course, they’re a petrostate also,” said Gore, who is chairman of The Climate Reality Project, a non-profit.



– Trump can’t stop ‘revolution’ –



Gore’s criticism echoed a letter Friday by a group of leading climate activists and scientists, including former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, who warned that the COP process was “no longer fit for purpose”.

They urged smaller, more frequent meetings, strict criteria for host countries and rules to ensure companies showed clear climate commitments before being allowed to send lobbyists to the talks.

“I think that there should be a test for who is qualified to be a delegate to these COPs. Are they coming to try to find a solution or are they coming in order to block a solution?” Gore said.

Oil and gas industry representatives should be scrutinised to see if they are committed to phasing out fossil fuels, and if they are “truth tellers” or “have a record of lying about the climate crisis”, he said.

His comments came as a coalition of NGOs, “Kick the Big Polluters Out”, said it calculated that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests are in attendance at COP29.

“Why should representatives of the biggest polluters in the world have more delegates than the largest national delegation, more delegates than the 10 most affected countries in the world?” Gore said.

“I think it’s absurd. And I do think that the whole process needs to be reformed.”

COP29 attendees are also worried about the future of US climate efforts as Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris agreement again.

But Gore downplayed concerns, saying his return to the White House would not “meaningfully slow” the clean energy “revolution”.

“The election of Trump may slow things slightly,” Gore said, but the energy transition is “unstoppable”.

Trump’s Republican allies tread lightly on Paris pact at COP29


By AFP
November 16, 2024

Texas Congressman August Pfluger said US voters had given Trump a mandate to bring costs down - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV, Ting Shen

Laurent Thomet and Ivan Couronne

Donald Trump’s Republican allies in Congress showed up at UN climate talks to tout natural gas and nuclear energy, but they tiptoed around the elephant in the room: a looming US withdrawal from the Paris agreement.

President Joe Biden’s climate envoys have sought to reassure delegates in Baku this week, telling them that Trump’s planned pullout from the pact would have little impact on the global battle against climate change.

The handful of Republican lawmakers who made the trip to Azerbaijan’s capital on Saturday represent states that are home to oil fields, coal mines and auto manufacturing.

Morgan Griffith, a congressman from Ohio and member of the House energy committee, told AFP that he has supported the Paris agreement in the past.

Asked if he would back a withdrawal, he said: “We don’t want get in front of the president.

“It just depends on, you know, what we deem is in the best interest of the United States,” he added.

Under the Paris agreement, signatories aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in the hope of reaching the ideal target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

The Republicans, with their backing of the oil and gas sectors, offered a contrasting vision of the fight against climate change to many of the delegates and activists attending the COP29 conference.



– Restore US ‘energy dominance’ –



“In our country there’s a blind rush just to eliminate all fossil fuels and I don’t think that’s practical for the developing world or the already industrialised world,” Griffith said.

Texas Congressman August Pfluger, who led the House energy committee delegation, said the US election had sent a clear signal.

“The people in the United States overwhelmingly supported President Donald Trump and his promise to restore American energy dominance,” Pfluger said at a news conference.

When asked about the Paris agreement, Pfluger said American voters “spoke very loud and clear” about their desire to see inflation come under control when they elected Trump on November 5.

“Energy is the foundation of that,” he added.

“If an agreement is going to hurt, if something is going to actually decrease our ability to do that, then we would want to look at that. But that’s for the president to say.”



– ‘Protect’ tax credits –



At the US pavilion in the cavernous stadium housing the conference, Griffith and two other congressmen, including a Democrat, sang the praises of nuclear energy as part of the solutions to lowering global emissions.

Heather Reams, president of the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a conservative non-profit that engages Republicans on climate policy, moderated the panel.

She told AFP that her organisation wants the United States to remain in the Paris agreement as it was “symbolic in a lot of ways for the United States to be a leader” on climate.

US officials and Democrats told COP29 delegates that the hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits and clean energy investments in Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, would cushion the blow from Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris pact.

“We are very supportive of those tax credits,” Reams said.

“We intend to try to protect them and make the case to… the new administration and with Republicans in Congress.”

Pfluger said any parts of the IRA incompatible with the goal of lowering prices for Americans would be “looked at” by the next Republican-led Congress in January.


– ‘Negative’ impact –


On the other side of the US political divide, Democratic Senator Ed Markey said the Biden administration could “get as much of the IRA money out the door as it can” before handing the White House keys to Trump in January.

Fellow Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said the United States could also deliver its new emissions-reduction target for 2035 to the United Nations before Trump takes office.

But Trump will still have a “negative” impact on climate, the senator told reporters.

Democrats in Congress will have a hard time blocking Trump’s nominees for energy and environment posts as the minority party.

“A good deal of it is out of our hands,” Whitehouse said.

Fragile countries make $20bn climate finance push at COP29, letter says

Reuters Published November 15, 2024 

Emergency physician Joe Vipond, a member of Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE), poses for photographers with a model of the globe as he stands for support of climate agenda during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 15. — Reuters

A group of conflict-affected countries is pushing at COP29 to double financial aid to more than $20 billion a year and combat the natural disaster and security crises facing their populations, a letter seen by Reuters showed.

The group is one of several pitching at the climate talks in Azerbaijan this week for funds to better prepare for the impacts of extreme weather as countries seek to agree to a new annual target on financing.

Island nations, for example, argue climate change threatens their very existence as seas rise, while rainforest nations say they need more money to protect their vast carbon sinks.

Countries mired in conflict and its aftermath say they have struggled to access private investment, as they are seen as too risky. That means UN funds are even more critical to their populations, many of whom have been displaced by war and weather.


In response, the COP29 Azerbaijan Presidency on Friday will launch a new ‘Network of Climate-vulnerable Countries’, including a number of countries that belong to the g7+, an intergovernmental group of fragile countries, which first sent the appeal.

The network aims to advocate as a group with climate finance institutions; build capacity in member states so they can absorb more finance; and create country platforms so investors can more easily find high-impact projects in which to invest, said think tank ODI Global, which helped the countries create the network.

Burundi, Chad, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Timor-Leste and Yemen have already joined the initiative, but all 20 members of the g7+ have been invited. “My hope is it will create a real platform for the countries in need,” said Abdullahi Khalif, chief climate negotiator for Somalia on the sidelines of the Baku talks.

The move follows a letter sent by the g7+ to the United Nations, World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund and COP presidencies last month, and shared exclusively with Reuters, asking for more support.

In it, the group demanded an explicit commitment in any final deal on finance at COP29 that would double financing to help them adapt to climate change to at least a collective $20 billion per year by 2026.

While 45 of the world’s least developed countries have their own UN negotiating group, which includes some of the g7+ countries, conflict-affected states face distinct struggles, advocates said.

“A flood situation in South Sudan or Somalia creates more catastrophe than it would in any other developing country,” said Habib Mayar, g7+ deputy general secretary, who helped coordinate the letter.

A child born in South Sudan, which has been mired in war since 2013, was 38 times more likely in 2022 to be internally displaced by climate-related disasters than a European or North American child, according to Unicef data.

Yet conflict-affected countries received only $8.4bn in climate funding in 2022 about a quarter of what was needed, according to a 2024 analysis by ODI Global.

“It’s clear that climate funds aren’t doing enough to support the world’s most climate vulnerable people,” said Mauricio Vazquez, ODI Global’s head of policy for global risks and resilience, said.

Climate ambition gap

Aisha Khan 

Published November 15, 2024 

DAWN

AS the world inches closer to catastrophe, all eyes are on the Conference of Parties (COP) taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The opening speeches from the COP28 UAE presidency, COP29 Azer presidency, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary all made the links between climate action and finance needs.

Climate finance was at the heart of the agenda, with parties eager to discuss means of implementation to support delivery of the Global Stock-take outcome. Political engagement to break the gridlock on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) will be crucial for countries to enhance ambition on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 to meet mitigation and adaptation targets.

The NDC announcements from the UAE and Brazil are welcome signals from two of the COP troika on their commitments to multilateral climate action. However, the troika countries collectively plan to expand oil and gas production by 32 per cent by 2035 (Brazil 36pc, UAE 34pc, and Azerbaijan 14pc).

With a packed agenda and only two weeks to move the needle on critical and contentious issues, it is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.

It is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.

The report on Doubling Adaptation Finance, released by the developed countries, states that the developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $32.4 billion in adaptation finance in 2022, including a total of $28.9bn in international public finance, an increase of nearly 23pc over 2021 levels and 54pc over 2019 levels. According to the report, significant progress has been made towards doubling adaptation finance from 2019 levels in the first three years of available data, and efforts are on track to reach $40bn by 2025.

The International Energy Agency acknowledges the momentum on decarbonisation, with record rollout of renewable energy and a scaling-up of electric vehicles, but expresses concern that the progress is not enough to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold alive. The IEA finds that governments are still responsible for around $1 trillion of energy sector investment today and will need to increase net-zero investments by about 40pc by 2035.

The World Meteorological Organisation report outlines that CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4pc in just 20 years, with the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere locking in future temperature increase.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development reports that in 2022, developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $115.9bn in climate finance for developing countries. This occurred with a delay of two years from the original 2020 target, but public finance accounted for close to 80pc of the total in 2022, and increased from $38bn in 2013 to $91.6bn in 2022. Mitigation continued to account for 60pc of the total and public climate finance grew by 52pc following several years of stagnation.

The Biennial Assessment of Climate Finance Flows prepared by the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance states that global climate finance flows in 2021-2022 increased by 63pc compared to those in 2019-2020, reaching an annual average of $1.3tr, and tracked adaptation finance increased by 28pc to an annual average of $63bn in 2021-2022. The report acknowledges that more than half of the global climate finance was provided in the form of debt instruments, while grant finance more than doubled in absolute terms but still accounted for only 6pc of the total flow.

The UN Trade and Development report on the NCQG outlines the climate finance needed from the developed countries to developing countries to meet the Paris Agreement goals. It concludes that the developing countries require $1.1tr in climate finance from 2025, rising to around $1.8tr by 2030. Based on these numbers, developed countries should anticipate a funding equivalent of three quarters of the investments needed in developing countries for climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as supporting response to climate-induced loss and damage.

Accordingly, the NCQG contribution target for developed countries should be around $0.89tr in 2025, reaching up to $1.46tr by the fifth year of implementation. This would imply a target for around 1.4pc of developed countries’ GDP per year from 2025 until 2030, and then reviewed to make it equivalent to around 2pc of developing countries’ GDP.

And finally, the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 raises alarm with its findings that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by 1.3pc year-on-year to 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. The mitigation pledges for 2030-2035 are not on track and need to be 26 gigatons of carbon dioxide lower for a warming limit of 1.5ºC.

Clearly, the ambition gap is widening, the need gap growing and the window of opportunity shrinking. GHG emissions are dangerously high and cash flows dismally small and slow. It is unlikely that COP29 will succeed in issuing a declaration that satisfies everyone. However, the goal of 1.5 still remains within reach but delay in action is not an option.

For Pakistan, the current temperature trends mean an increase in climate-induced hazards, more loss and damage, and a higher risk of sinking deeper into a debt and poverty trap.

It is time to reconcile with reality and accept the fact that total reliance on external support for succour is not a gamble that the country can afford.

Pakistan needs to reset its priorities and align them with the national security policy, making geo-economics and governance reforms its top action agenda. Now is perhaps the last opportunity for making long-term strategic choices to prepare the country for a future with a new socioeconomic and political climate.

The writer is the chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, November 15th, 2024

Optimising COP29

Gulmina Bilal Ahmad 

Published November 14, 2024 

DAWN

THE global demand for skilled workers in green technologies is growing. This is important for Pakistan, where climate change and environmental degradation are urgent concerns. Green Technical and Vocational Education and Training is vital for developing skills needed to make key industries sustainable. However, substantial challenges remain in fully integrating Green TVET into the national development framework.

With COP29 in Baku focused on climate action and sustainable workforce development, Pakistan has an opportunity to formalise Green TVET strategies. Indeed, the country’s vulnerability to climate change underscores the need for Green TVET. Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most affected by the impact of climate change. It accrues an annual loss of $3.8 billion due to extreme weather events. The industrial and agricultural sectors, contributing more than 40 per cent of GDP and employing over 60pc of the workforce, are heavily reliant on obsolete, environmentally damaging practices, thus making it critical to transition to eco-friendly methods.

However, in adopting Green TVT, Pakistan will face several structural and economic hurdles, one challenge being the absence of a comprehensive national policy connecting green economic goals to vocational training. Although environmental concerns have been partially addressed in the National Climate Change Policy, the latter does not prioritise workforce development for green sectors. This indicates an institutional disconnect with organisations that are attempting to bridge the gap by integrating green skills into their programmes.

Incorporating green skills requires strategic focus and institutional coordination. For instance, the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission has introduced some foundational green skills, aimed at building awareness of sustainable practices. However, these efforts require substantial expansion.


Industry demand for green skills remains low in Pakistan.

At COP29, where global leaders are discussing climate action and workforce development, Pakistan can advocate for Green TVET on an international platform. Efforts of organisations, such as the NAVTTC, could benefit from aligning with frameworks emerging from the climate conference, potentially securing commitments for funding and support from international partners. Such alliances could enable them to expand Green TVET programming and help Pakistan achieve both its climate and economic objectives.

There is also not much awareness of or demand for green skills among employers. Many industries lack an understanding of the benefits of green skills; their motivation to adopt sustainable practices is thus reduced. Critical sectors, including the construction industry and agriculture, still depend on resource-intensive methods, as they perceive the transition costs to be high. For instance, the construction sector, which contributes over 2pc to GDP, often resorts to energy-inefficient practices, while agriculture — the largest employment sector — has been slow to adopt climate-smart techniques.

These challenges deter TVET institutions from investing in green training programmes as industry demand for these skills remains low. Creating awareness and a demand for green skills within industries requires focused outreach and partnerships to educate employers on the long-term economic benefits of sustainable practices.

Many vocational institutions also lack modern equipment, which is essential for teaching technologies, such as those related to solar panel installation or sustainable agriculture practices. Nearly half our TVET institutions are under-resour­c­­ed, highlighting an immediate need to upgrade facilities to meet the demands of a green economy. Securing these up­­grades is challenging as budget allocations are limited. Pakistan’s TVET se­­­ctor receives around 2.5pc of the national education budget, which would need to be scaled up in order to match countries that prioritise vocational training. Private sector investment in green skills training is also minimal, and although international funding options, such as the Green Climate Fund, exist, Pakistan has to do much more to access these resources.

Investing in Green TVET can speed up both economic growth and environmental resilience. By establishing cohesive policies, raising industry awareness, securing funding, and promoting TVET, Pakistan can build a workforce capable of supporting sustainable development in core sectors of the economy. This shift will not only reduce Pakistan’s environmental footprint but also position the country as a proactive participant in the global green economy, aligning with COP29’s objectives and working towards a more sustainable future.

The writer is the chairperson of the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission.

chairperson@navttc.gov.pk

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024

COP29 host tries to calm waters after diplomatic turmoil

By AFP
November 14, 2024

Azerbaijan's lead negotiator at COP29 said 'our doors are still open' after France's environment minister cancelled her trip - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV

Delphine PAYSANT, Laurent THOMET

Host Azerbaijan tried to bring down the diplomatic temperature in Baku on Thursday after a French minister cancelled her trip to the UN climate talks and Argentina withdrew its delegation.

While negotiators work behind closed doors at the COP29 talks to trash out a climate finance deal, the spotlight has been largely stolen by diplomatic turmoil.

France’s Environment Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said Wednesday she would not travel to Baku after Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused Paris of colonial “crimes” and “human rights violations” in its overseas territories.

Pannier-Runacher called his speech “unacceptable… and beneath the dignity of the presidency of the COP.”

It was also a “flagrant violation of the code of conduct” for running United Nations climate talks, she added.

Attempting to calm the waters on Thursday, COP29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev insisted that Azerbaijan had fostered “an inclusive process”.

“We have opened our doors to everybody to come to engage in very constructive, fruitful discussions,” he told reporters.

“Our doors are still open.”

Relations between Paris and Baku have long been tense over France’s support for Azerbaijan’s arch-rival Armenia.

Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in a lightning offensive last year when it retook the breakaway Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh — leading to an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians.



– ‘Diplomatic matter’ –



Aliyev has hailed the victory in remarks to delegates and also raised eyebrows by insisting natural resources including carbon-emitting fossil fuels were a “gift from God”.

The EU’s climate commissioner said the climate talks “should be a place where all parties feel at liberty to come and negotiate.”

“The COP Presidency has a particular responsibility to enable and enhance that,” Wopke Hoekstra posted on X.

Compounding the diplomatic turmoil, Argentina’s delegation was abruptly pulled from the talks.

An environment ministry source confirmed the departure but declined to offer more detail.

Argentina’s anti-establishment President Javier Milei has made no secret of his scepticism of climate change and is an ally of newly reelected former US president Donald Trump.

While Argentina’s delegation was small, its departure “is unprecedented in the country’s diplomatic history”, said Oscar Soria, an Argentine environmental activist and director of the Common Initiative.

Rafiyev declined to be drawn on the departure, terming it a “diplomatic matter between Argentina and the UN”.

“We hope that all who are attending here have only one intention, to come to join us in this collective effort to get an outcome that is positive,” he added.



– ‘Some uncertainty’ –



But progress on the key goal of the talks — a new climate finance deal — is proving grindingly slow.

The main fault line is clear: how much should developed countries pay to help poorer nations adapt to climate change and transition away from fossil fuels.

Rich nations are reluctant to spend much more than the $100-billion a year already committed, conscious of domestic publics angry about inflation and stuttering economies.

But developing countries warn they need at least $1 trillion to defend against the ravages of climate change and meet commitments to reach net-zero emissions.

Sources described ongoing discussions as difficult, with negotiators struggling to wrestle a draft text into a reasonable form before ministers arrive in a few days to start nailing down a deal.

“At this pace we won’t be able to deliver something meaningful by Saturday as initially requested by the presidency,” warned Fernanda de Carvalho, climate policy lead at WWF.

Hanging over proceedings is the question of what role the United States will play on climate action and funding after Trump returns to the White House in January.

He has pledged to again withdraw from the landmark Paris agreement, raising questions about how much US negotiators can really promise and deliver in Baku.

“I think it’s fair to say that there’s some uncertainty in the next administration,” conceded Jake Levine, the White House’s senior director for climate and energy.

But the need to “project American values” would be a powerful driver for continued climate funding and action despite Trump’s return, he added.

“We cannot cede the playing field to China, to our competitors… So I think that you will see a continued American presence.”