Hybrid warfare? China sabotaging Baltic Sea cables would be ‘super surprising’, experts say

A Chinese vessel has sparked major interest after it was tracked travelling near the two internet cables that were mysteriously severed on the bottom of the Baltic Sea in recent days. While it remains unclear whether the incidents were accidental or intentional, experts say that the notion that China would support its ally Russia by conducting hybrid war operations in this part of the world would be more than surprising.


Issued on: 21/11/2024 -
By: Sébastian SEIBT

Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 sails under the Great Belt bridge, in Korsor, Denmark, November 19, 2024. © Yoruk Isik, Reuters


On Sunday, at around 10am local time, a fibre-optic undersea cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut. Just hours later, at around 4am local time the next day, a second cable linking two more NATO countries – this time Finland and Germany – was damaged.

The countries affected by the disruptions were quick to react, with Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius even going so far as to say that “nobody believes” that the incident was “accidental”.

"We have to conclude, without knowing exactly who did it, that it is a hybrid action and we also have to assume – without knowing it – that it is sabotage," he told reporters in Brussels Tuesday, without providing any proof for his claims.

Almost immediately, the four countries launched investigations into the suspicious cable cuts, and attention soon turned to the vessels that had been navigating in the area. One of them drew particular interest: the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3.

According to satellite tracking data, the cargo ship, which had been en route from Saint Petersburg to Cairo, had travelled along the C-Lion1 cable (connecting Finland and Germany) in an almost perfect line when it was cut. The vessel then changed course, sailing near the BCS cable (connecting Sweden and Lithuania) when that cable was disrupted.

On Wednesday, Denmark’s Armed Forces announced they had sent out ships and were “present in the area near Yi Peng 3”, which appeared to have come to a stand-still shortly after exiting the Oresund strait separating Sweden and Denmark. The military did not provide more details about its operation.

"The Danish Navy is probably questioning the cruiser and is puzzled about how to further proceed," Christian Bueger, a specialist in maritime security at the University of Copenhagen, said, but noted there is no evidence to incriminate the Chinese vessel so far.

“What we know for sure is that two cables were cut. What we don't know for sure is who did it and why. But obviously the Chinese vessel is now under suspicion. And if the shipping data is correct, the Danes have stopped it still in international waters," he said.
Dangerous accusations

Bueger said that he had found the German defence minister’s comment about “sabotage”, and his indirect suggestion that Russia was likely behind the incident, both surprising and premature.

“It limits their action space [for diplomatic manouvre],” he said, adding that since a Chinese – and not a Russian – ship has since become the prime focus in the probes, “the German defence minister is basically accusing China of committing an act of sabotage on German infrastructure”.

According to the Financial Times, the Yi Peng 3 was built in 2001 and purchased by the Chinese shipping company Ningbo Yipeng Shipping Co in 2016. When contacted by the British newspaper, a Ningbo Yipeng representative said the Chinese government had “asked the company to co-operate with the investigation”, but did not answer further questions and then hung up the phone.

This would not be the first time China is involved in an incident in the Baltic Sea, however. Last year, the Hong Kong-flagged but Chinese-owned Newnew Polar Bear damaged the so-called Balticconnector, the undersea gas pipeline that connects Estonia and Finland. Just two months later, Beijing admitted that its ship had been at fault, but concluded in an internal investigation that it had been an accident.

Shashank Joshi, a defence editor at the Economist, reported at the time that the Newnew Polar Bear had quite a few Russian links, including both its ownership and the crew that had been aboard when the incident occurred.

Very little is yet known about the staff aboard the Yi Peng 3, but German tabloid Bild on Wednesday reported that the captain has Russian nationality. The newspaper did not give a source for its claim.

Bueger said that although China is no stranger to conducting hybrid sea operations at home, he would find it “super surprising” if it would do so in European waters.

Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and NATO has expanded to include also Finland and Sweden, Moscow has more or less openly reserved for itself the right to conduct these types of operations against anyone it deems supporting Kyiv.

But, Bueger said, if Beijing were to do the same on European turf “it would be a really, really surprising act of provocation, and it's unheard of”.
The Baltic Sea: Already a hybrid warfare battleground

Such an involvement would also mark a major escalation in Baltic Sea tensions in general. In 2022, the Baltic Sea was the scene for sabotage operations targeting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, and an underwater cable linking the Faroe Islands to the internet. In the past two years, several GPS jamming operations have also been conducted over its waters.

Basil Germond, a specialist in international and maritime security at Lancaster University, said that the reason the Baltic Sea has become such a battleground for hybrid war is because it “is a vast, uninhabitable, liquid domain, so it is hard to monitor and control, and thus it is hard to identify suspicious behaviours and prevent malign activities”.

Bueger added that in that context, undersea internet cables have become particularly easy targets.

“Cutting cables is very easy to do and it doesn't cost much," he said. "But the consequences of them are tremendous because it means we need to invest a lot of money and energy to try to protect our infrastructures better.”

He did not think it would have any greater impact on the affected countries’ internet access though.

“It will not slow down the internet anywhere, because in Europe at least, we have quite a lot of redundancy," he said. "So the data just gets rerouted to other cables. No big deal."

Nord stream Sabotage revelations : Who’s really behind Russian gas pipeline explosions?

44:15Nord stream Sabotage revelations : Who’s really behind Russian gas pipeline explosions? © France 24

Instead, the two experts said that if the cable cuts prove to have been intentional, they would likely have acted as “trial balloons” to test Europe’s preparedness. Since the 2022 explosions targeting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, European authorities have worked to strengthen their cooperation against hybrid warfare operations in the region, and have, among other things, imposed sanctions against anyone involved in such activities.

Germond said that the swift response, by in particular the Danish authorities, bodes well for the future.

“[It] demonstrates the limits of hybrid warfare and also that we are ramping up our ability to respond in a timely manner to such incidents, which is crucial to deter malign actors in the future by making it more difficult for them to deny responsibilities,” he said.

This article was adapted from the original in French by Louise Nordstrom.

Denmark Guards Chinese Bulker Linkd to Subsea Cable Damage

Yi Peng 3 passes under the Great Belt Bridge (Storebaelt Bridge webcam)

Published Nov 20, 2024 4:09 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Denmark's defense ministry has confirmed that it is monitoring a Chinese bulker suspected of potential involvement in the severing of two subsea cables in the Baltic last weekend. The damage is being investigated as a presumed sabotage attack. 

The vessel, the Yi Peng 3, was outbound from St. Petersburg in the Baltic during the timeframe of the two back-to-back cable breaks. Its AIS record shows that it exhibited unusual course and speed changes at positions that may have corresponded to the twin casualties. 

The ship was intercepted by a Danish Navy patrol ship as it transited towards the Great Belt on November 18. The bulker then went to anchor in the Kattegat, with the patrol ship waiting nearby. Despite the appearance of formal intervention, Denmark stopped short of announcing that the ship had been detained.

"The Danish Defence can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3. The Danish Defence currently has no further comments," the ministry said in a brief statement. 

Sweden’s National Operations Department confirmed that the vessel is under scrutiny. “It is part of the sphere of interest, but there may be more," spokesman Per Engström said. 

Given the recent pattern of Russian sabotage attacks in the EU and the UK, combined with Russia's advanced subsea warfare capabilities and repeated threats against European nations, speculation about the identity of the attacker immediately turned to Moscow. German news outlet Bild reports that the vessel's master is a Russian national, a common arrangement given the large number of Russian officers in the global fleet. On Wednesday, the Kremlin dismissed suspicions of Russian involvement as "ridiculous." 

Sweden is leading an investigation into the suspected sabotage attack, including any potential role played by the Yi Peng, according to the Financial Times. On site investigations are planned with ROV dives, but so far the effort has been hampered by poor winter weather. 

Finland's security service noted that accidental cable breakages are globally common, amounting to about 200 incidents per year, with most attributable to anchoring or trawling. 

The last major subsea infrastructure incident in the Baltic occurred in October 2023, and it has been attributed to the Chinese container ship, the NewNew Polar Bear. As the vessel transited across the northeastern Baltic Sea towards St. Petersburg, it trailed an anchor along the bottom for hundreds of nautical miles, rupturing the Balticconnector gas pipeline and severing two fiber-optic cables. Chinese investigators confirmed that the NewNew Polar Bear was responsible, but reportedly concluded that the anchor-drag incident was an accident, according to the South China Morning Post. A Finnish-Estonian criminal investigation into the case is still under way.   

SEE

Danish military says it’s monitoring Chinese ship closely after undersea cables severed

Germany, Finland warn of ‘hybrid warfare’ after sea cable cut

Here's how Trump's anti-immigrant message broke through with non-white voters

Travis Gettys
November 21, 2024 

RAW STORY

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally in Coachella, California, U.S., October 12, 2024.

 REUTERS/Mike Blake

Donald Trump made notable gains with voters of color despite his openly racist and xenophobic campaign messaging.

A record 46 percent of Latinos voted for the former president, up 14 points from 2020, and Asian American support jumped five points to 39 percent, while Black support gained only one point, at 13 percent, since his election loss to Joe Biden, reported The Guardian.

“That racial baggage is one that we’ve carried in this country and through American politics for a long time,” said journalist Paola Ramos, who said many Latino voters have been taught to “idolize and romanticize whiteness." “I think [that] has now been finally revealed in very clear ways through Trumpism.”

Many Latino voters are also disconnected from the immigration experience and hold xenophobic ideas themselves, according to producer and author Dash Harris.

“We cannot act as if the Dominican Republic isn’t deporting thousands of Haitians right now,” Harris said. “If Latin Americans are migrating from fascist countries, they are going to support fascism in their new space. It’s a continuum of interest convergence.”

Trump intermingled his xenophobic attacks with his economic message, which resonated with voters in many demographics.

“In every single message: ‘[Immigrants] are taking your jobs, they are coming after you,'" Harris said. "Inevitably, particularly if you’re part of certain ecosystems, you’ll start believing that rhetoric.”

Trump's racism was a "dealbreaker" for many Asian American voters, said Karthick Ramakrishnan, the executive director of Asian American and Pacific Islander data at the University of California at Berkeley, but that demographic has "shifted more conservative" on undocumented immigration.

“The Trump campaign and the Republican Party did a very effective job at portraying the border as out of control, and cities [as] overrun by immigrants, and they framed it as one of illegal immigration," Ramakrishnan said.

Black support for Trump doesn't indicate any sort of "realignment," according to Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, because 85 percent of Black voters backed Kamala Harris, but instead reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the economy under president Joe Biden.

“There are people who think the economy is in bad shape, and think that the incumbent administration is at fault for this bad economy,” Gillespie said. “It would make sense that there would be people who would want to punish the administration, and those people might not be thinking primarily about civil rights issues or what was the latest racist thing that Donald Trump said.”

‘I will have subpoena power’: 

Marjorie Taylor Greene threatens Dr. Fauci with DOGE hearing

Daniel Hampton
November 21, 2024 

Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene warned Dr. Anthony Fauci — the chief medical advisor to the president during the COVID-19 pandemic — that she will have subpoena power soon as a member of a new House subcommittee that will work with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Greene and House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) reportedly met with Ramaswamy and were “already working together,” CNBC reported Thursday. Comer hoped to establish the subpanel early next year.

Greene’s group will reportedly be named the Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency — sharing the famous DOGE acronym with Musk and Ramaswamy's largely symbolic entity.

When asked on Real America's Voice about whether her committee will look at Fauci as part of her subcommittee's role in investigating "waste, fraud, and abuse," Greene threatened that "we can definitely bring accountability as far as COVID is concerned."

"Not just with Anthony Fauci," she said, adding that she hopes Trump's next attorney general — since announced as Trump loyalist Pam Bondi — will also take on the effort.

Marjorie Taylor Green (Erin Scott/Pool/AFP)

"I believe that Dr. Anthony Fauci is guilty of crimes against humanity and maybe some other things," she said, without evidence. "I think that's something the next attorney general should pursue and many Americans would support that."

Greene said there's "outrageous waste" throughout government with regard to pandemic-era spending.

"All types of agencies and grant programs. These are the types of things I'll be able to do on the subcommittee," she said.

Watch the clip below or at this link.

'Laser beams do not start fires in CA': Dem rips Marjorie Taylor Greene at FEMA hearing

David Edwards
November 19, 2024 

House Oversight Committee/screen grab

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) slammed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-GA) conspiracy theory that Jewish space lasers ignited forest fires in California.

During a House Oversight Committee hearing Thursday, Moskowitz said he agreed with the decision to dismiss an employee of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, after she suggested that homes displaying support for President-elect Donald Trump should be avoided while providing hurricane relief.

"Disaster aid should never be declined based on support of any political candidate," Moskowitz insisted. "As the world is becoming more partisan, the world is becoming more divided. You're seeing it here in the country."

Moskowitz argued that Trump's so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, should focus on the size of the Department of Homeland Security when making improvements.

"But the last two Trump [FEMA] administrators will tell you, previous administrators will tell you when they leave the job, is that Homeland has become too big," he explained. "FEMA can't make the changes you want them to make... Homeland won't let them."

"So for the people at DOGE, if Vivek [Ramaswamy] and Elon [Musk] are listening, you need to look at Homeland," he continued. "And so what I'm saying is that don't look at [FEMA] Administrator [Deanne] Criswell or this FEMA administration or in this Biden administration."

Moskowitz concluded with a warning about politicians who politicize disasters.

"It is so important that we don't allow FEMA to become politicized and that we don't allow disaster aid to become politicized," he insisted. "Laser beams do not start fires in California. We cannot guide where hurricanes go."

The Florida Democrat noted that foreign adversaries have amplified the conspiracy theories "to divide Democrats and Republicans."

"They want us fighting over disaster aid because it helps their goal," he said. "We can't participate in that. We shouldn't amplify that."

Watch the video below from the House Oversight Committee or at this link.

 

RFK Jr. planning major changes to Medicare: report

Matthew Chapman
November 21, 2024 

RAW STORY

FILE PHOTO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump greet each other at a campaign event sponsored by conservative group Turning Point USA, in Duluth, Georgia, U.S., October 23, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump's pick to run the Department of Health and Human Services, is best known for his conspiracy theories about vaccines, COVID-19, and AIDS — but those are not the only ideas he has for overhauling the federal government. In particular, according to The Washington Post, he wants to make a significant technical overhaul to the way Medicare works.

Specifically, according to the report, he wants to audit and overhaul how medical billing codes work for the national insurance program for America's seniors — an idea that even many Democrats have pushed for years.

Medical coding in the United States "tends to reward health-care providers for surgeries and other costly procedures. It has been accused of steering physicians to become specialists because they will be paid more, while financial incentives are different in other countries, where more physicians go into primary care — and health outcomes are better," wrote Dan Diamond, national health reporter for the Post.

"Medicare’s billing codes are shaped by the American Medical Association, which represents more than 250,000 physicians. The lobbying group oversees a panel of several dozen physicians — known as the AMA/Specialty Society RVS Update Committee, more commonly referred to as the RUC — who study the resources needed for each medical service and issue recommendations to the federal government," the report continued.

However, the RUC's advice has "historically been skewed by misleading estimates of how physicians spend their time, according to a 2013 Washington Post investigation," which has raised concerns about corruption from everyone from former Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).


This comes at the same time that Trump has tapped TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, a thoracic surgeon infamous for downplaying the COVID-19 pandemic and pushing unsupported dietary supplements, to head up the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

While there appears to be some level of bipartisan agreement on the medical coding issue, some conservatives are expressing alarm at the fact that Kennedy, who used to be a Democrat, has wildly unpredictable views on GOP orthodoxy. The National Review recently blasted the pick in light of Kennedy's longtime support of abortion rights.


'That's insane': CNN's Jake Tapper stunned as he mocks RFK's 'plandemic' conspiracy theory

Sarah K. Burris
November 20, 2024

RAW STORY

CNN's Jake Tapper (Photo: Screen capture CNN video)

The normally straight-faced CNN host Jake Tapper couldn't hold back his skepticism after airing a newly unearthed video of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggesting the U.S. government secretly orchestrated the COVID-19 pandemic.

The video, revealed by The Bulwark on Tuesday, shows Kennedy — President-elect Donald Trump's choice to head the Department of Health and Human Services — talking about the pandemic, and that "a lot of it feels very planned to me."

Also read: RFK Jr. earns millions from conservative and anti-vax companies: disclosure

“Many people argue that this pandemic was a ‘plandemic,’ that it was planned from the outset. It’s part of a sinister scheme. I can’t tell you the answer to that. I don’t have enough evidence. A lot of it feels very planned to me,” Kennedy told the press while he was opening a new chapter of his group, the Children's Health Defense, which has promoted vaccine conspiracies in online ads, according to The Washington Post.

“I don’t know. I will tell you this: If you create these mechanisms for control, they become weapons of obedience for authoritarian regimes no matter how beneficial or innocent the people who created them," he said.

Tapper came back from the video clip to say, "Okay, so I can tell you the answer to that. I have enough evidence, and that's insane. That's not what happened. Horrible."

He turned to Trump supporter and Republican strategist David Urban to point out that Kennedy "isn't even a Republican" and ask why his party is standing behind him.

Urban and Kate Bedingfield, former White House communications director for Joe Biden, began talking over each other in an attempt to talk about Kennedy.

Bedingfield and Tapper both pointed out to Urban that Kennedy was saying that about Trump, who was president at the time.


Urban said he found a meme funny because Trump is nominating Democrats such as Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, Kennedy and others.

See the video below or at the link here.
- YouTubeyoutu.be

GOP senator introduces bill to eliminate DOE;  Department of Education

Sen. Mike Rounds (C), R-S.D., on Thursday introduced legislation to eliminate the Department of Education. File Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

Nov. 22 (UPI) -- Republican Sen. Mike Rounds has introduced legislation to eliminate the Department of Education, a policy that President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on ahead of the general election.

Rounds, of South Dakota, announced the so-called Returning Education to Our States Act on Thursday, describing the department -- founded nearly 45 years ago -- as having grown bloated and ineffective.

"The federal Department of Education has never educated a single student, and it's long past time to end this bureaucratic Department that causes more harm than good," he said in a statement.

If passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by the president, the bill would abolish the Department of Education 180 days after becoming law.

The Department of Education was born May 4, 1980, following the division of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, from which also gave rise to the Department of Health and Human services.

Its main function is to authorize, oversee and fund dozens of programs, including K-Grade 12 education, special education, school lunch programs and student financial aid.

While seeking to eliminate the department, Rounds acknowledged that there are at least 25 "important" programs within it would be redirected to other departments under the proposed legislation. For instance, grants and loan programs would fall under the authorization of the Treasury, programs specifically for Native Americans and Hawaiians would be transferred to the Department of Interior and programs to assist those with disabilities would be overseen by the Department of Health and Human services.
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Rounds' introduction of the bill comes after Trump repeatedly campaigned ahead of the Nov. 5 election, which he won, to eliminate the Department of Education.

Earlier this week, the president-elect nominated Linda McMahon, co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment, to head the department.

"We will send education back to the states, and Linda will spearhead the effort," Trump said.

Rounds said he has worked for years to eliminate the department and was "pleased" that Trump shares his vision.

"We all know local control is best when it comes to education," Rounds said.

"Local school boards and state Departments of Education know best what their students need, not unelected bureaucrats in Washington, D.C."

WWIII  ICBM

What we know about the 'experimental' ballistic missile Russia fired at Ukraine

Ukraine's air force said on Thursday that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which are designed to deliver nuclear warheads, at targets in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. But US officials said they believed the strike was carried out using an "experimental" medium-range ballistic missile. Here's what we know so far.


Issued on: 21/11/2024 - 
By: NEWS WIRES

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Services on November 21, 2024, rescue workers put out a fire of a building which was heavily damaged by a Russian strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. © Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP

Russia on Thursday fired an innovative missile at Ukraine in a clear warning of its capabilities as tensions surge, officials from Western governments said, even as they pushed back against Ukrainian claims of an even more widescale action by Moscow.

Ukraine said on Thursday Russia had launched against its territory an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) designed to carry nuclear warheads.

But while warning that such a step would mark a major escalation, Ukraine's European allies did not confirm Kyiv's initial assessments that such a weapon had been fired.

A US official, who asked not to be named, said Russia's strike on Ukraine was not an ICBM, but an "experimental" medium-range ballistic missile.

In an address to the nation late Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia had used a new, experimental "hypersonic" medium range non-nuclear ballistic missile named "Oreshnik" ("Hazel") in the attack on Dnipro.

What was fired?

Analysts and now the United States have pushed back on the initial claims from Kyiv that Moscow had launched the nuclear-capable ICBM as part of a barrage towards the central city of Dnipro.

Read moreUS approval for Ukraine long-range missile strikes into Russia is a slim lifeline for Kyiv

Using such a missile at such short range would be a hugely profligate use of valuable resources. "My take is that one must be sceptical and cautious," wrote weapons expert Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project.

While not naming the missile used or giving technical specifications, the US official said Russia "likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles."

"Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon," the official said.

In London, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters Russia's strike on Ukraine was a "ballistic missile" with "a range of several thousand kilometres", the first time Moscow had used such a weapon in the war.

What is the context?

Tension has been building between Moscow and Kyiv's allies in the West since Ukrainian forces struck Russian territory with Western-supplied long-range weapons on Tuesday after getting the green light from Washington.

US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to fire the missiles into Russian territory for the first time while Washington will soon provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines to shore up its defences against Russian forces.

Biden is moving to boost Ukraine's war effort in the final two months of his administration, before Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised to end the war quickly, takes power in January.

"The United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine to strengthen capabilities, including air defence, and put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield," the official said.

In London, the British government spokesman said: "It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia, which only serves to strengthen our resolve in terms of standing by Ukraine for as long as it takes."
What message is Moscow seeking to send?

Despite the initial confusion on the nature of the missile fired, it is clear that the strike on Dnipro was unusual and aimed at sparking the maximum attention from Kyiv and its allies.

"We are really on something unprecedented, and it is much more a political act than a military act. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the attack is zero," says Heloise Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

"This change of scale is significant," she said, adding this was "the first use by the Russians on the battlefield of a missile with a range greater than 2,000 kilometres."

But the use of this missile "will not change the situation significantly on the operational level. They obviously have very few and they are expensive."

Local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit in Dnipro and two civilians were wounded.

For Nick Brown, of British defence analysis organisation Janes, "this is really about sending an escalatory message or warning, an expensive and potentially dangerous way for Russia to rattle its sabre."

According to the US official: "Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters... but it will not be a game changer in this conflict," the US official said.

(AFP)

Putin says Moscow 'has right' to hit states whose weapons Ukraine uses to strike Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised message Thursday that Moscow has the right to strike the military targets of countries who have supplied weapons to Ukraine to hit Russia. Putin's statements came after Russia launched a new intermediate-range missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in response to Kyiv's long-range missile attacks earlier this week.


Issued on: 21/11/2024 
By: FRANCE 24
Video by:  Vedika BAHL

01:59

Russian President Vladimir Putin records a televised address in Moscow, Russia on November 21, 2024. © Vyacheslav Prokofyev, AP


Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that Moscow has tested a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on Ukraine, and he warned that it could use the weapon against countries that have allowed Kyiv to use their missiles to strike Russia.

The Russian strike on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday came in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil this week that used longer-range US and British missiles, Putin said during a nationwide TV address.

Following Putin's nationwide address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a strong response from world leaders to Russia's use of a new generation hypersonic missile, saying it was a major step up in the "scale and brutality" of the war.

"The world must react. Right now there is no strong reaction from the world," Zelensky said in a statement published on Telegram, adding: "This is an obvious and serious increase in the scale and brutality of this war."


Putin declared that Russia would issue advance warnings if it launches more strikes with such missile against Ukraine to allow civilians to evacuate to safety. And he warned that US air defense systems wouldn’t be capable of intercepting Russian missiles.

Putin said the attack on Dnipro struck a missile factory a new missile called "Oreshnik," a Russian word meaning "hazel."

"We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities," he said. "And in case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond resolutely in a mirror way."

No, these videos don't show Putin's reaction to Biden giving Ukraine long-range missiles

05:01





Putin's announcement came hours after Ukraine claimed that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile overnight at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. But American officials said an initial US assessment indicated the strike was carried out with an intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Two people were wounded in the attack, and an industrial facility and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities were damaged, according to local officials.

The attack comes during a week of escalating tensions, as the US eased restrictions on Ukraine's use of American-made longer-range missiles inside Russia and Putin lowered the threshold for launching nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian air force said in a statement that the Dnipro attack was launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, on the Caspian Sea.

"Today, our crazy neighbour once again showed what he really is," Zelensky said hours before Putin's address. "And how afraid he is."

Earlier this week, the Biden administration authorised Ukraine to use US-supplied, longer-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russia – a move that drew an angry response from Moscow.

Days later, Ukraine fired several of the missiles into Russia, according to the Kremlin. The same day, Putin signed a new doctrine that allows for a potential nuclear response even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power.

Read moreUS approval for Ukraine long-range missile strikes into Russia is a slim lifeline for Kyiv

The doctrine is formulated broadly to avoid a firm commitment to use nuclear weapons. In response, Western countries, including the US, said Russia has used irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior throughout the war to intimidate Ukraine and other nations.

They have also expressed dismay at the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

Also Thursday, Russia also struck Zelensky’s home city of Kryvyi Rih, wounding 26 people, said the head of regional administration, Serhii Lysak. The missile strike caused damage to an administrative building, at least five multistory residential buildings, and civilian vehicles.

The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said in a statement that its air defense systems shot down two British-made Storm Shadow missiles, six HIMARS rockets, and 67 drones.

The statement didn’t say when or where the Storm Shadows were shot down or what they were targeting. Russia earlier reported downing some of the missiles over the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine war escalates as NATO braces for Trump-brokered deal: on Putin's terms?

43:55

More than 1,000 days into war, Russia has the upper hand, with its larger army advancing in Donetsk and Ukrainian civilians suffering from relentless drone and missile strikes.

Analysts and observers say that the loosening of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western missiles is unlikely to change the the course of the war, but it puts the Russian army in a more vulnerable position and could complicate the logistics that are crucial in warfare.

Putin has also warned that the move would mean that Russia and NATO are at war.

"It is an important move and it pulls against, undermines the narrative that Putin had been trying to establish that it was fine for Russia to rain down Iranian drones and North Korean missiles on Ukraine but a reckless escalation for Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons at legitimate targets in Russia," said Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser who now sits in the House of Lords.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and AP)

Russia’s missile ‘warning’ to Ukraine and West: what we know



By AFP
November 21, 2024

The nature of the the missile remains unclear - Copyright COME BACK ALIVE/AFP -
Didier LAURAS

Russia on Thursday fired an experimental missile at Ukraine in a clear warning of its capabilities, officials from Western governments said, even as they pushed back against Ukrainian claims of a more provocative action by Moscow.

Ukraine initially accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in combat for the first time in history.

But a US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Russia had not fired an ICBM but rather an “experimental” medium-range ballistic missile.

In an address late Thursday, President Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia had used a new, experimental “hypersonic” medium-range ballistic missile named “Oreshnik” (“Hazel”) in an attack on Dnipro.

In what analysts said was intended as a warning to the countries arming Ukraine, the Russian leader hinted the missile was capable of unleashing a nuclear payload.



– What was fired?



Analysts and the United States pushed back against Kyiv’s initial claims that Moscow had launched a nuclear-capable ICBM as part of a barrage towards the central city of Dnipro.

As their name suggests, intercontinental ballistic missiles are capable of striking one continent from another, with a range of at least 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles).

Intermediate-range missiles by contrast typically have a reach of between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometres — still long enough to make good on Putin’s threat of striking the West.

In his speech, the Kremlin leader said Russia had tested one of its “newest intermediate-range missile systems in combat conditions. In this case, a ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Moscow had informed Washington of the missile’s launch half an hour before it was fired through an automatic nuclear de-escalation hotline, in remarks cited in state media.

While not naming the missile used or giving technical specifications, the US official said Russia “likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles”.

“Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon,” the official said.

In London, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters that Russia’s strike on Ukraine was a “ballistic missile” with “a range of several thousand kilometres”, the first time Moscow had used such a weapon in the war.



– What is the context?



Tension has been building between Moscow and Kyiv’s allies in the West since Ukrainian forces struck Russian territory with Western-supplied long-range weapons on Tuesday after getting the green light from Washington.

US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to fire the missiles into Russian territory for the first time while Washington will soon provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines to shore up its defences against Russian forces.

On Tuesday, Putin signed a decree lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons, a move Western powers condemned as “irresponsible”.

Biden is moving to boost Ukraine’s war effort in the final two months of his administration, before Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised to end the war quickly, takes power in January.

“The United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine to strengthen capabilities, including air defence, and put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield,” the official said.

In London, the British government spokesman said of the Russian strike: “It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia, which only serves to strengthen our resolve in terms of standing by Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said Russia’s use of the missile would “neither change the course of the conflict nor deter” the US-led defence alliance from backing Kyiv.



– What message is Moscow seeking to send?



Despite the initial confusion about the nature of the missile fired, it is clear the strike on Dnipro was unusual and aimed at grabbing the attention of Kyiv and its allies.

“We are really on something unprecedented, and it is much more a political act than a military act. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the attack is zero,” said Heloise Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.

“This change of scale is significant,” she said, adding this was “the first use by the Russians on the battlefield of a missile with a range greater than 2,000 kilometres”.

But she said the use of this missile would “not change the situation significantly on the operational level. They obviously have very few and they are expensive.”

Local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit in Dnipro and two civilians were wounded.

For Nick Brown of British defence analysis organisation Janes, using the missile was “really about sending an escalatory message or warning, an expensive and potentially dangerous way for Russia to rattle its sabre.”

According to the US official: “Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters… but it will not be a game changer in this conflict.”

Putin hints at strikes on West in ‘global’ Ukraine war

By AFP
November 21, 2024


The attack on Kyiv is the latest in an uptick in escalating strikes on Ukrainian cities, mainly in the south of the war-battered country - Copyright POOL/AFP NICOLAS TUCAT
Florent VERGNES

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the conflict in Ukraine had characteristics of a “global” war and did not rule out strikes on Western countries.

The Kremlin strongman spoke out after a day of frayed nerves, with Russia test-firing a new generation intermediate-range missile at Ukraine — which Putin hinted was capable of unleashing a nuclear payload.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky branded the strike a major ramping up of the “scale and brutality” of the war by a “crazy neighbour”, while Kyiv’s main backer the United States said that Russia was to blame for escalating the conflict “at every turn”.

Intermediate-range missiles typically have a reach of up to 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles) — enough to make good on Putin’s threat of striking the West.

In a defiant address to the nation, Russia’s president railed at Ukraine’s allies granting permission for Kyiv to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets on Russian territory, warning of retaliation.

In recent days Ukraine has fired US and UK-supplied missiles at Russian territory for the first time, escalating already sky-high tensions in the brutal nearly three-year-long conflict.

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin said.

He said the US-sent Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow payloads were shot down by Moscow’s air defences, adding: “The goals that the enemy obviously set were not achieved”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov did however say Moscow informed Washington of the missile’s launch half an hour before it was fired through an automatic nuclear de-escalation hotline, in remarks cited in state media.

He earlier said Russia was doing everything to avoid an atomic conflict, having updated its nuclear doctrine this week.

White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that Washington saw no need to modify the United States’ own nuclear posture in response.



– ‘Reckless behaviour’ –



Ukraine had earlier accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in history — a claim later downplayed by Washington.

The Ukrainian air force said Moscow had launched the missile as part of a barrage towards Dnipro, where local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit and two civilians were wounded.

Putin said that Russia had carried out “testing in combat conditions of one of the newest Russian… missile systems” named “Oreshnik”.

Criticising the global response to the strike — “final proof that Russia definitely does not want peace” — Zelensky warned that other countries could become targets for Putin too.

“It is necessary to urge Russia to a true peace, which is possible only through force,” the Ukrainian leader said in his evening address.

“Otherwise, there will be relentless Russian strikes, threats and destabilisation, and not only against Ukraine.”

The attack on Dnipro comes just days after several foreign embassies shuttered temporarily in the Ukrainian capital, citing the threat of a large-scale strike.

“It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia,” a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters.

The spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Stephane Dujarric, said the new missile’s deployment was “another concerning and worrying development,” warning the war was “going in the wrong direction”.

Yet a US official played down the threat, saying on condition of anonymity that Russia “likely possesses only a handful of these” experimental missiles.



– UK ‘directly involved’ –



The head of the Dnipropetrovsk region where the city of Dnipro is located said the Russian aerial bombardment damaged a rehabilitation centre and several homes, as well as an industrial enterprise.

“Two people were wounded — a 57-year-old man was treated on the scene and a 42-year-old woman was hospitalised,” said the official, Sergiy Lysak.

Russia and Ukraine have escalated their use of long-range missiles in recent days since Washington gave Kyiv permission to use its ATACMS against military targets inside Russia — a long-standing Ukrainian request.

British media meanwhile reported on Wednesday that Kyiv had launched UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia after being given the green light from London.

With ranges of 300 and 250 kilometres respectively, both missile systems’ reach is far dwarfed by the experimental intermediate-range system fired by Russia.

Russia’s envoy to London on Thursday said that meant Britain was “now directly involved” in the Ukraine war, with Andrei Kelin telling Sky News “this firing cannot happen” without UK and NATO support.

But the White House’s Jean-Pierre countered that it was Russia who was behind the rising tensions, pointing to the reported deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to help Moscow fight off a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s border Kursk region.

“The escalation at every turn is coming from Russia,” Jean-Pierre said, adding that the United States had warned Moscow against involving “another country in another part of the world” — referring to Pyongyang.



– Kyiv in retreat –



The defence ministry in Moscow said Thursday its air-defence systems had downed two Storm Shadows, without saying whether they had come down on Russian territory or in occupied Ukraine.

The missile escalation is coming at a critical moment on the ground for Ukraine, as its defences buckle under Russian pressure across the sprawling front line.

Russia claimed deeper advances in the war-battered Donetsk region, announcing on Thursday that its forces had captured another village close to Kurakhove, closing in on the town after months of steady advances.

Moscow’s defence ministry said Russian forces had taken the small village of Dalne, five kilometres (three miles) south of Kurakhove.

Lysak, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, said that 26 people had been wounded in another strike on the town of Kryvyi Rig, where Zelensky was born.

Op-Ed: Escalation or desperation? Russia fires ballistic missile at Ukraine


By  Paul Wallis
DIGITAL JOURNAL
November 22, 2024

Ukraine has long demanded authorization to use the US-made ATACMS missile against targets inside Russia - Copyright DoD/AFP John Hamilton

According to Ukraine, Russia fired the first ICBM ever used in warfare at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Two people were injured by the conventional warhead.

The missile was part of a barrage of various types of missiles including hypersonic missiles. Other sources say it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is a sort of scaled-down ICBM with a shorter range.

The attack comes after the US approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.

The attack also came with a lot of rhetoric attached. Russia has now “updated” its nuclear doctrine to state that any non-nuclear power acting in partnership with a nuclear power is to be considered a “joint attack”.

This is more or less standard Russian dogma, emphasizing its nuclear capabilities. There is no comparison between an ATACMS missile and any sort of nuclear weapon.

Russia’s military situation in Ukraine is now such a total failure that rhetoric makes far more headlines than actual military achievements. Most of their “advances” in Donetsk are minuscule, taking back what they claim to be their own territory.

In an additional escalation, this time a real one, North Korean troops and weapons are said to be operating in Russia. Various sources state these troops are operating in the Kursk region and taking significant casualties. They don’t seem to be particularly combat-effective.

Despite claims by the incoming Trump administration, this situation is likely to be difficult to defuse. Russia is trying to save face. Its military has taken a severe beating for nearly three years.

Ukraine won’t back down. Ukraine has nothing to gain from a pseudo-peace which may simply turn into another attack after the Russian military has regrown itself. A lasting peace is beyond US capabilities to deliver.

The big loser in a failed peace deal would be the US. America would simply look weak and naïve, and in many ways simply stupid. It would also look as though the US was trying to save Russia, which is the exact opposite of saving face for Putin.

The highly skeptical rest of the world wouldn’t be impressed. It’s the wrong message to send to this planet’s other 8 billion people. Trump has a unique ability to damage America’s reputation and credibility in a few sentences. He spent most of his first term annoying America’s allies making baseless statements about them.

He’s not seen as a “strong leader” outside the US. He’s seen as a highly personally compromised figurehead at best and chronically incompetent on average. He certainly can’t even pretend to lead the rest of the world social media propaganda notwithstanding.

That’s a big shift in the wrong direction. America was in fact a leader of the free world. Under Trump, it’s likely to be purely antagonistic and entirely insular, with no trust.

Add to this self-inflicted mess the various other messages about tariffs, deportations, and democracy in general, and the US could lose just about all of the goodwill of the last century in a month or so.

The winner would be China. In comparison to a tariff-addled, backward-looking, fact-ignoring America and a crippled Russia, China can only look good.

Nothing can save Russia from the consequences of this idiotic self-inflicted war. Europe is rearming. China can pull the plug whenever it wants. It’s game over in so many ways.

America can only be “great” by enforcing a just and permanent peace.

Let’s see who the vertebrates are in this scenario.

___________________________________________________

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.

Inside the South Korean weapons factory that could supply Kyiv

By AFP
November 21, 2024

South Korean engineers work on a 120mm self-propelled mortar at the Hanwha Aerospace factory in Changwon - Copyright AFP JUNG YEON-JE
Kang Jin-kyu

At the outskirts of a South Korean industrial city, workers at a sprawling weapons factory were conducting final-stage testing for a newly built surface-to-air defence system that could, eventually, head to Ukraine.

Longstanding domestic policy bars Seoul from sending weapons into active conflict zones, but ever since its spy agency accused the nuclear-armed North last month of sending thousands of soldiers to help Moscow fight Kyiv, South Korea has warned it might change course.

If so, likely top of the list for Ukraine would be the “Cheongung” — or Sky Arrow — air defence system, a domestically-produced Iron Dome-style interception shield that AFP saw Thursday during an exclusive tour of the Hanwha Aerospace factory in the southern city of Changwon.

As the melody of Beethoven’s Fur Elise played on repeat over the in-house speaker, veteran welders worked on huge cylinders that will become part of the inceptor system, which is defensive in nature — although Hanwha also produces an attack-focused variant.

“The Cheongung system can be thought of as similar to the US Patriot missile system,” said senior manager Jung Sung-young at Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence contractor.

Ukraine is reliant on Western air defence systems, particularly Patriots, to protect itself from Russian missile barrages — and has been calling for more deliveries.

Washington said in June it would prioritise deliveries to Kyiv, ahead of other countries that have placed orders.

But were South Korea, which remains technically at war with the nuclear-armed North and has maintained production of weaponry long ignored by Western arms industries, to get involved, it could potentially make a huge difference, experts say.

“As a divided nation, we have systematically established and implemented standards at the national level, from the development of these weapon systems to quality control,” said Jung.

“The quality, capability and manufacturing supply chain of our products is sufficiently competitive compared to those of other countries,” he added.

Whether — or how — South Korea decides to help Ukraine directly depends on “the level of North Korean involvement”, President Yoon Suk Yeol said earlier this month, adding Seoul was “not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons.”

If South Korea were to supply arms, the initial batch would be defensive in nature, Yoon said.



– Combat ready –



To fend off the steady barrage of missiles that have targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian areas, Kyiv urgently needs more air defences, Han Kwon-hee of the Korea Association of Defence Industry told AFP.

“Counteroffensives require stability in the rear zones, which is why Kyiv has also conducted drone attacks within Russia, including Moscow,” Han explained.

“They will help Ukraine hold off Russia’s offensives by intercepting drones and missiles flying deep into their territory,” he said — a huge boost for Kyiv, alongside the recent US move to let it use long-range American missiles against targets inside Russia.

The South has remained combat-ready since its 1950-53 war with the North ended in a truce, and while Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence contractor, was once seen by analysts as retrograde for its focus on land weapons, it is now in high demand.

AFP saw a wide range of weaponry moving along assembly lines at the company’s sprawling Changwon factory, from infantry armoured vehicles to surface-to-air missile systems designed to intercept incoming missiles.

The heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe have heavily benefited the South Korean company, which saw its on-year operating profit soar over 450 percent in the latest quarter to $343.3 million.

It has signed major arms deals with countries such as Poland and Romania, including the export of K9 Howitzers and Chunmoo missile systems.



– Weapons exports –



Seoul has long harboured ambitions to join the ranks of the world’s top arms exporters — aiming to be the fourth-largest, behind the US, Russia and France — something that is now possible, industry research indicates.

It has already sold 155mm artillery shells to Washington — but with a “final user” agreement in place meaning the United States would be the military that uses the munitions.

Experts have said this allows the United States to then provide their own shells to Kyiv.

Hanwha’s other weapons offer that could shift the balance of war in Ukraine is its Chunmoo guided missile system, experts said.

“With a maximum range of 290 km (180 miles), Chunmoo can strike targets in Pyongyang if launched from the border area in the South,” said Choi Gi-il, professor of military studies at Sangji University.

“What Ukraine urgently needs to turn the war in its favour are offensive weapons like Chunmoo missiles and K9 howitzers, capable of inflicting significant damage on the enemy,” Choi added.

“If North Korea’s direct involvement in the war escalates, (Seoul) may consider sending lethal weapons, in addition to defensive ones.”

Nationalist raves galvanise traumatised Ukrainian youth


By AFP

November 21, 2024

The mix of party and military reflects the split reality of young Ukrainians - Copyright AFP Andrej ISAKOVIC
Barbara WOJAZER

At a rave in a former silk factory in Kyiv, Bogdana Lukyanchuk was out partying for the first time since her father was killed fighting Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

The party raised funds for the Third Assault Brigade, a controversial unit which has gained countrywide name recognition thanks to its military feats and marketing.

“I knew it was a charity event with people that I respected, so I could come and let my emotions run wild for just a day,” Lukyanchuk said, showing a photo of her dad with a broken heart emoji on her phone screensaver.

“There is still life in Ukraine. Life pulsates. Blood pulsates,” the 23-year-old said, shouting over the loud bass.

The Saturday night rave featured a combat drone simulator and merchandise from the Third Assault Brigade.

It was also attended by members of a linked nationalist youth group, Centuria.

The mix of party and military reflected the split reality of young Ukrainians, whose attempts to enjoy life are constantly marked by grief, air raid alerts and strikes.

It showed the efforts being made to galvanise young people exhausted by the war as the Russian invasion nears the three-year mark.



– ‘Gently involve young people’ –



Around 80 percent of Ukrainians have a close relative or friend who has been wounded by Russian forces, according to a survey from the Kyiv Institute of Sociology.

To process the violence against their country, some young Ukrainians find a sense of purpose and camaraderie in nationalist military organisations.

Lukyanchuk came to the rave with friends she met at workshops teaching civilians to handle rifles and use tourniquets, life-saving devices to staunch massive bleeding.

“There are conscious people here,” she said.

She worried that others were forgetting the war.

The patriotic fervour of the beginning of the war has subsided, leaving brigades short of funding and recruits.

In that struggle, the Third Assault Brigade, created by far-right politician Andriy Biletsky, has distinguished itself with its Instagrammable branding.

A neon orange logo in support of the brigade lit up the drone simulation room, which looked like a gamer’s den filled with teenagers slouched on a couch.

Some watched the drone flight simulator on a large computer screen, over which hung the white neon logo of Centuria.

Centuria says it “despises the modern cult of weakness” and aims to raise “strong and proud Ukrainians”.

The group boasts over 16,500 followers on Instagram, where it posts about a variety of events ranging from lectures to knife fights.

The blend of genres serves a purpose, said rave organiser Viktor Mazur.

“We gently involve young people. We don’t do it harshly with heavy propaganda but rather through entertainment, and that way we develop their loyalty,” the 29-year-old said.

Sofia Tabatska was surprised how quickly she worked out how to fly the drone under the guidance of an instructor.

“It’s like playing a computer game, like Grand Theft Auto,” said the 24-year-old.

“It would be nice if I could use it in some way in the future,” Tabatska said.

But she ruled out joining the army any time soon, describing herself as a pacifist.



– ‘Children of the war’ –



Marianna Tkalych, a psychologist, said some militarisation of Ukrainian society was inevitable following the Russian invasion.

But she believes the effect may not be lasting and the real test will come when the war ends and Ukraine’s political process, frozen by martial law, resumes.

The popularity of patriotic and militaristic organisations after the war, she said, will hinge on Ukraine’s capacity to deal with a traumatised generation.

“There will be some young people who have not found their purpose in any other sphere and who haven’t experienced normal life,” said Tkalych, who also heads the research platform Rating Lab.

“The generation growing up right now are children of the war.”

Fourteen-year-old Yury was just a toddler when Russian-backed forces launched a first armed aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

He can hardly remember a life outside the conflict that escalated in 2022.

The teenager says he plans to enlist if the war is still ongoing when he turns 18.

He is already preparing with Centuria.

“I found myself there,” he said, mentioning classes on using assault rifles and fighting.

He said he thought his family would support his plans.

“My mum knows. I hope it will be okay.”

Civil war economy hits Myanmar garment workers


By AFP
November 20, 2024

A civil war is devastating Myanmar, but thousands of garment workers in the country still churn out clothing for brands like Adidas and H&M - Copyright AFP/File Ye Aung THU

As civil war pounds Myanmar’s economy and drives up prices, garment worker Wai Wai often starts her shift making clothes for international brands on an empty stomach.

The orders she and thousands of others churn out for big names including Adidas, H&M and others bring in billions of dollars in export earnings for Myanmar.

It is a rare bright spot in an economy crippled by the military’s 2021 coup and subsequent slide into civil war.

But for 12 hours of sewing clothes for export to China and Europe in a bleak industrial suburb of Yangon, Wai Wai earns just over $3 a day, which has to cover rent, food and clothes.

It must also stretch to supporting her parents in Rakhine state at the other end of the country, where conflict between the military and ethnic rebels has wrecked the economy and driven food prices up.

With times so hard, Wai Wai “decided to mostly skip breakfast” to save extra money, she told AFP, asking to use a pseudonym.

“Sometimes we just have leftover rice from the night before and save money, because if we use money for breakfast, there will be less money to transfer to our family.”

In a nearby factory, Thin Thin Khine and her two sisters work 12 hours a day sewing uniforms for a Myanmar company and earn a monthly salary of around 350,000 Myanmar kyat.

That’s about $165 according to the official exchange rate set by the junta of just over 2,000 kyat to the dollar.

On the open market, a greenback can fetch around 4,500 kyat.

“All my sisters are working, but there is no extra money at all,” she said.

“In the past, we could buy two or three new items of clothing every month, but now we can’t afford to buy new clothes, cosmetics or things for our personal care.”



– Lights out –



Since the coup, Zara owner Inditex, Marks and Spencer and others have left Myanmar, citing the difficulties of operating amid the turmoil.

Others such as Adidas, H&M and Danish company Bestseller have stayed, for now.

Adidas told AFP it worked closely with its suppliers in Myanmar to safeguard workers’ rights, while H&M said it was gradually phasing out its operations in the country.

Estimates of the apparel industry’s export earnings vary.

Myanmar’s commerce ministry said exports were worth more than $3 billion in the past financial year.

But the European Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar said export earnings were higher, surging from $5.7 billion in 2019 to $7.6 billion in 2022 — with more than half of exports going to the bloc.

The European body said the rise in Myanmar exports was helped by low labour costs compared to Cambodia and China, along with trade preferences granted by the EU and United States.

Keeping the factories running is a challenge.

In May, the junta said the national electricity grid was meeting about half of the country’s daily electricity needs.

To keep the lights on and the machines spinning, factory owners rely on expensive generators — themselves vulnerable to the regular diesel shortages that plague Yangon.

“The working situation right now is like we invest more money and get less profits,” said small factory owner Khin Khin Wai.

Cotton spindles have more than doubled in price from 18 cents to 50 cents, she said.

“Our lives here are not progressing year by year, they are falling apart,” she said.

Wai Wai’s factory supplies Danish clothing brand Bestseller.

A Bestseller spokesman told AFP that sourcing from Myanmar was “complex” and the company “continuously assessed” the situation, publishing regular reports on its operations in the country.

According to its September report, “on average” workers at Myanmar factories supplying it were paid a daily wage of 10,000-13,000 kyat ($5-6.50 at the official rate), including bonuses and overtime.

– Crackdown –

Abuses in the sector have spiked since the military took power, rights groups say.

This month, Swiss-based union federation IndustriALL Global Union said the junta had banned unions and arrested union leaders.

“There are widespread, comprehensive reports on the extensive violations of workers’ rights,” IndustriALL general secretary Atle Hoie said in a statement.

AFP has sought comment from the junta about conditions in the industry.

The latest concern is a conscription law enforced from February to shore up the military’s depleted ranks.

In its most recent report on Myanmar, Bestseller said two workers at factories that supply it had been drafted between March and September of this year.

Women are included in the draft, although the junta has said it will not recruit them for now.

For migrant workers like Wai Wai who do not have the means to pay bribes to avoid any draft, it is a huge worry.

“I am full of fear about how I will face it if I am called up for conscription,” Wai Wai said.

‘Primitive’ beers draw crowds at Belgian brewery


By AFP
November 21, 2024


Foam coming out of a barrel containing 'lambic' in the process of aging at Cantillon brewery in Brussels - Copyright AFP Simon Wohlfahrt
Matthieu DEMEESTERE

Winding between copper vats and oak barrels, a cluster of early-morning visitors filed through a cavernous Brussels building for an up-close peek at craft beers brewed using a centuries-old method — before sampling the result.

Since it was founded in 1900 in Anderlecht, a working-class district of the Belgian capital, Brasserie Cantillon has been turning out so-called primitive “lambic” beers that are steeped in local tradition.

What makes lambics special is they start with a process known as spontaneous fermentation — through exposure to wild yeasts, specifically those native to Belgium’s Zenne valley — as opposed to cultivated brewer’s yeast.

Aged in wood barrels for months to years, which allows for a secondary fermentation to occur as the beer’s sugars convert to carbon dioxide, the result is a distinctive dry beer with a faintly tart aftertaste.

Cantillon’s speciality is an even more niche type of beer known as “gueuze” — a blend of lambics from different years and whose fruity varieties include kriek, or cherry in Flemish — that has around 20 brewers in Belgium.

Towards the end of the 1970s, the brewery decided to set itself apart by turning its operations into a museum that today draws more than 30,000 visitors a year, amid a broader surge of enthusiasm for craft beers and micro-breweries.

On this November morning, tourists from Italy, France, Japan and Britain rubbed shoulders in what is billed as the last working lambic brewery in Brussels, watching its workers ply their craft.



– ‘Long lost’ –



Joining the tourists were two interns from Canada’s Quebec including Isabelle Gignac — a beer professional in her thirties who works at a micro-brewery on the shores of the Gaspe Peninsula.

Her boss sent her to Cantillon for five weeks to bring back some of its know-how.

“What makes a difference between the beers brewed here is how long they are aged, and what barrels are used,” she said.

Morello cherry, haskap, elderberry flower: the brewery uses a whole palette of fruity aromas for its gueuze beers, adding them at the secondary fermentation stage.

“Lambic is what comes closest to primitive beer — the kind that was made before Louis Pasteur and microbiologists discovered how yeast works in the second half of the 19th century,” explained one of Cantillon’s co-owners, Jean-Pierre Van Roy.

Compared to the 6.5 million hectolitres of beer imbibed in Belgium last year, Cantillon’s output is a mere drop, with an annual 2,500 hectolitres (55,00 UK gallons) produced on average. Two-thirds of that are sold abroad.

Together with his wife Claude Cantillon, granddaughter of the brewery’s founder Paul Cantillon, the couple remain majority stakeholders in the family business while the day to day is handled by their three children.

John Gallagher, an Irish academic based in Leeds in northern England, inherited his taste for Belgian brewing from a well-travelled uncle.

“These are beers rooted in a ‘terroir,'” he said approvingly as he sipped from a red fruit variety, using the French term designating the particular mix of soil, climate and culture that feeds a product’s character.

“That’s what gives them such a reputation with beer lovers,” Gallagher said. “In England, traditional methods have been long lost.”