Wednesday, November 27, 2024

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M ALL THE RAGE

Analysis:

Adani's 'renewable energy marvel' trapped in US bribery indictment

 Adani Green, described by U.S. prosecutors as being at the heart of "The Corrupt Solar Project."


November 26, 2024
By Reuters

Workers install solar panels at the Khavda Renewable Energy Park of Adani Green Energy Ltd in Khavda, India, April 12, 2024.


NEW DELHI —

Betting big on the clean energy goals of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, billionaire Gautam Adani found backers in France's TotalEnergies and the Qatar Investment Authority as he set out to build the world's biggest renewable energy project.

The crown jewel of his company, Adani Green, is an energy park in western Gujarat state planned to be five times the size of Paris on completion, and producing 50 gigawatts by 2030, or roughly a tenth of India's clean energy goals.

Now the plan faces a hurdle in the form of a U.S. indictment of Adani, his nephew and executive director Sagar Adani and managing director Vneet S. Jaain, accusing them of paying bribes of $265 million to secure Indian power supply contracts, and misleading U.S. investors during fund raises there.

Since the news, stock of Adani Green has nosedived 36%, losing $9.6 billion in market value

.
India's Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani addresses the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit in Gandhinagar, India, Jan.10, 2024.


Adani Group has denied the accusations in the U.S. indictment as baseless, and vowed to seek all legal recourse.

But fund-raising could get complicated.

"To the extent of raising additional capital for newer projects, any sort of regulatory issues become problematic," said Deepika Mundra, a senior analyst at M&G Investments based in Britain.

"Particularly if you want to tap international markets."

Adani Green is one of many public and private companies key to helping India achieve its goals, she added. "It is quite important that all these (Adani Green) projects go through."

The Adani Green boom is reflected in a surge of 10,000% in its shares between 2018 and 2022 as power demand in India swells, spurring it to develop the energy park in Khavda in Gujarat.

"For us, this renewable energy park is a symbol of our commitment to sustainability and a symbol of national pride," Adani wrote in his annual report in June.

When complete, its output would be "enough to power nations like Belgium, Chile, and Switzerland," he added.

Adani has committed investment of $100 billion in the renewables sector, seen as core to the ports-to-airports conglomerate that is worth more than $135 billion.

Now the tide is turning for Adani Green, described by U.S. prosecutors as being at the heart of "The Corrupt Solar Project."

Workers assemble Photovoltaic Modules at the plant of Adani Green Energy Ltd
in Mundra, India, April 11, 2024.

After the U.S. indictment, TotalEnergies, which holds a stake of nearly 19.8% in Adani Green, was among the first to react, saying it would not invest more in the group for now.

It had not been made aware of the bribery case, even though Sagar Adani was served a grand jury subpoena last year by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, it added.

The Qatar Investment Authority, with a stake of 2.7%, declined comment.

But standing firm for now is GQG Investors, which holds a stake of 4.2%. In an internal client note seen by Reuters, it said, "We believe the fundamentals of the companies we are invested in remain sound."

Adani Green added power capacity of 37% each year to reach 11.2 GW by September this year, from a mere 2 GW in the 2018-19 financial year.

Its next big target is 50 GW goal by 2030, or a capacity addition of 31% each year, it told investors in a presentation in November.

'Renewable energy marvel'

Adani Green's revenues of $574 million during the period from April to September this year were up 20% on the year, boosting its cash profit 27% to $313 million over that time.

With large solar, wind and hybrid power developments in Gujarat and the desert state of Rajasthan, it is developing smaller pumped-storage hydro power projects in five Indian states.

The facilities in Rajasthan and Gujarat were to have supplied the power contracted for in the Adani deals that U.S. prosecutors allege to have been granted after payment of bribes.

One of them is the partly developed marquee project in Khavda, just 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the international border with Pakistan. It is described by Adani as "a renewable energy marvel in the making."

Adani is targeting a massive jump in operational capacity at the location to 30 GW by 2029, up from 2.25 GW now. Energy from the park can power 16.1 million homes each year, Adani says.


Windmill tubes of Adani Green Energy are loaded on transport trucks along Ahmedabad-Mundra National Highway near Viramgam in the western state of Gujarat, India, Nov. 25, 2024.

Reuters was among media which toured the project site in April, when thousands of laborers worked on construction and scores of solar panels were being installed.

Engineers that day talked up the potential of the project, which would sprawl across 540 sq km (210 sq miles) when complete, saying it would be visible from space.

"The kind of support being provided by the central government, and I must say, the state governments also, is extraordinary," Managing Director Vneet S. Jaain said at the time.

Jaain, one of three Adani executives, besides Gautam and Sagar Adani, indicted for offering bribes to Indian state officials to secure deals, has not responded to a request for comment from Reuters.

 

FASCIST UNITY


Netanyahu to Visit Hungary Amid ICC Controversy


By    |   Tuesday, 26 November 2024 

NEWSMAX


 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly accepted President Viktor Orbán's invitation to visit Hungary.

Orbán said Friday he had invited Netanyahu to visit Hungary after several other European nations said the Israeli premier would be detained if he set foot on their soil, after the issuing of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Israel's war in Gaza.

Netanyahu quickly accepted Orbán's offer, Világgazdaság reported.

"I thank Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for the warm support for me and the State of Israel," Netanyahu said in a statement. "Against the shameful weakness of those who have lined up alongside the outrageous decision against the State of Israel's right to defend itself, Hungary – like our friends in the US – has shown moral clarity and steadfastness on the side of justice and the truth."

The ICC last week issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister and Hamas officials, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity over the war in Gaza and the October 2023 attacks that triggered Israel's offensive in the Palestinian territory.

Assuring Netanyahu that he would face no risks if he visited Hungary, Orbán branded the arrest warrants a "brazen, cynical, and completely unacceptable decision." Orbán, who is often at odds with his European Union peers, has forged warm ties with Netanyahu.

"Today I will invite Israel's prime minister, Mr. Netanyahu, for a visit to Hungary, and in that invite, I will guarantee him that if he comes, the ICC ruling will have no effect in Hungary, and we will not follow its contents," Orbán said.

Orbán was not only leader to criticize the ICC's move.

President Joe Biden said the ICC arrest warrants against Israeli leaders were outrageous.

"Let me be clear once again: whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security," Biden said in a statement.

Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to be national security adviser, took to social media to condemn the ICC.

"The ICC has no credibility and these allegations have been refuted by the U.S. government," Waltz posted on X with The Associated Press story about the ICC's action. "Israel has lawfully defended its people & borders from genocidal terrorists. You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January."

Reuters contributed to this report.

Israel civil inquiry blames Netanyahu for October 7 failure


By Africanews with AP
11/26/2024


The independent civilian commission of inquiry into the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel has found Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly responsible for the failures leading up to the attack, alongside former defense ministers, the army chief and heads of security services.

The commission led by retired judge Varda Alsheik presented its findings on Tuesday after a four month probe in which it heard some 120 witnesses. It was set up by relatives of victims of the Hamas attack, in response to the absence of any state probe.

The commission determined that the Israeli government, its army and security services “failed in their primary mission of protecting the citizens of Israel.”

It said Netanyahu was responsible for ignoring “repeated warnings” ahead of October 7, for his appeasing approach over the years toward Hamas, and for “undermining all decision-making centers, including the cabinet and the National Security Council, in a way that prevented any serious discussion” on security issues.

The commission further determined that the military and defense leaders bear blame for ignoring warnings from within the army, and for reducing the army’s presence along the Gaza border while relying excessively on technological means. On the day of the Hamas attack, the report says, the army’s response was both slow and lacking.

The civil commission called for the immediate establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack.

Netanyahu has opposed launching a state commission of inquiry, arguing that such an investigation should begin only once the war is over.
PS; ZIONISTS OPPOSE CHRISTIANITY

Israeli soldiers film themselves desecrating church, mocking rituals in south Lebanon

Israeli soldiers filmed themselves breaking into a south Lebanon church and imitating wedding rituals, leading to widespread outrage.

The New Arab Staff
26 November, 2024

Churches and other religious buildings have come under attack as a result of Israel's war on Lebanon [Getty]

Israeli soldiers published video footage of themselves mocking wedding rituals and desecrating a church located in the village of Deir Mimas in south Lebanon.

In video footage widely shared online, the soldiers break into the church at night with torches and mimic the religious imagery on the walls, before going on to imitate a bride and groom at the altar while holding microphones.

The soldiers then proceed to mimic intimate acts on the church floor, pile on top of each other and sing.

The Israeli army issued a statement, saying they condemn the act and will be taking disciplinary measures.

"This is a serious act that is not in line with the IDF’s values and orders. The IDF respects all religions and condemns this type of behaviour. This incident is under investigation and those involved will be dealt with disciplinary action," an Israeli army spokesperson said.


The actions have been heavily denounced online, with many calling for the Israeli army to be held accountable for its actions in Lebanon and Gaza.

"Deafening silence of US and European politicians who spent the past 20 years masquerading as defenders of Eastern Christians, only to pander to western Islamophobes," Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations wrote on social media platform X.

"Nihilist barbarians. Obscene and depraved," another social media user commented.

The video also prompted scathing criticism from Christian groups worldwide.

"What if this happened in a synagogue? They’d be screaming antisemitism," Wadie Abu Nassar, the coordinator of the Holy Land Christian Forum said according to Israeli media.

The Vatican also reportedly condemned the actions as "outrageous".

Since the start of Israel’s wars on Gaza and Lebanon, faith leaders around the world have urged for a ceasefire and the protection of places of worship.

Last week, Pope Francis said that allegations that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza should be "carefully investigated", marking some of his strongest remarks since the eruption of Israel’s offensive.

Israeli forces have also shared images of themselves in Gaza urinating on pages of the holy Quran and destroying and setting fire to mosques.

Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 44,249 Palestinians and wounded an additional 104,746 others since 7 October 2023. Israeli attacks have also killed at least 3,768 in Lebanon and wounded 15,699 others.

TikTok CEO summoned to European Parliament over role in shock Romania election

The role of Chinese-owned TikTok is under scrutiny following the shock victory of a far-right candidate in Romania’s election.


The first-round victory of the ultranationalist and pro-Russian Călin Georgescu has triggered shockwaves about the political trajectory of the EU and NATO country. | Daniel Mihailescu/Getty Images

November 26, 2024
By Nicholas Vinocur and Pieter Haeck
POLITICO EU

BRUSSELS — A top EU lawmaker is demanding that TikTok's chief executive appear before the European Parliament to answer questions about the platform's role in Sunday's Romanian presidential election, as researchers warn of covert activity on thousands of fake accounts leading up to the vote.

The first-round victory of the ultranationalist and pro-Russian Călin Georgescu has triggered shockwaves about the political trajectory of the EU and NATO country, with many concerns focused on how a TikTok campaign managed to propel an unknown candidate from obscurity. A second-round will be held on Dec. 8.

"We call on the CEO of TikTok to come to speak in this house and to ensure his platform conducted to no infringement under the DSA," said Valérie Hayer, head of the liberal Renew Europe group, told a press conference on Thursday, referring to the Digital Services Act, Europe's rulebook for online content.

"Romania is a warning bell: Radicalisation and disinformation can happen all over Europe with harmful consequences," added Hayer, an ally of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Hayer's appeal comes only two days after Georgescu's shock victory. He had no party backing and polls had failed to pick up on his popularity — though researchers are now zeroing on a major TikTok campaign he led in the days leading up to the election.

"We believed that Tiktok was misused and was led to be misused by him and an army of fake accounts that were used for his purpose," said Bogdan Manolea, executive director of the Romanian campaign group, Association for Technology and Internet.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu on Tuesday said funding for Georgescu's campaign on TikTok needed to be reviewed. "It's a system, I don't know how legal it is, I understood how the system was used. The source of financing, in my opinion, is to be followed, 'follow the money."

A top EU lawmaker is demanding that TikTok's chief executive appear before the European Parliament. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

There is, however, no proof at this stage of involvement by Russia or other state actors.

Manolea added TikTok should have seen the "wave of thousands of fake accounts" and that the company should be responsible for that under the DSA.

While paid political advertising isn't allowed under TikTok's terms and conditions, this time that rule was "largely ineffective," said Keith Kiely, coordinator for the Bulgarian Romanian Observatory on Digital Media.

The platform had a "significant influence" in the elections, he added.

It's not the first time that TikTok, which is owners by China's Bytedance, has come in for criticism in the EU. In 2023, Macron called TikTok "deceptively innocent" and a cause of "real addiction" among users, though the EU has yet to levy any major fines or penalties against the platform.

TikTok declined to comment on its role in the Romanian elections. The company had set up an election center inside the app to provide reliable election information and partnered with a local NGO to boost digital literacy and counter disinformation.
Mali cuts TV news station's signal over broadcast criticizing Burkina Faso's ruling junta

By Rédaction Africanews
11/26/2024

Mali


Mali’s ruling junta cut the signal of the popular news broadcaster Joliba TV News after a prominent politician criticized the military rulers of neighboring Burkina Faso during a televised debate, a journalist for the channel said Tuesday.

“This morning, the authorities cut off our TV channel signal, but we’re still hopeful that they’ll restore it soon,” Attaher Halidou, the journalist who chaired the debate, told The Associated Press.

Earlier this month, Malian authorities arrested and jailed politician Issa Kaou N’Djim after he claimed during the debate on Joliba TV that the military rulers of Burkina Faso had fabricated evidence of a foiled coup in September. The director of the broadcaster was also questioned by the authorities.


The decision to cut Joliba TV's signal is the latest crackdown on press freedom and political dissent in Mali, which has been ruled by a military regime since 2020.

In June, the authorities arrested 11 opposition politicians and several activists. That followed the junta's decision to ban the media from reporting on the activities of political parties and associations.

The Press House of Mali, which represents journalists and the media in the West African country, threatened on Sunday to rebroadcast the televised debate if the authorities revoked Joliba's license.

"We are in talks with the Malian authorities to find a global solution that not only concerns the restoration of Joliba TV’s signal, but also the threat of withdrawal of its license and all other factors concerning press freedom,” Bandiougou Danté, the president of the press organization, told The Associated Press.

N’Djim was one of the vice presidents of the National Transitional Council, Mali’s legislative body under the junta. He later distanced himself from the military regime and said he favored a return to electoral democracy. In 2021, he received a six-month prison sentence after he criticized the military regime on social media.

Mali has been ruled by military regimes since a series of coups which capitalized on popular discontent with previous democratically elected governments over security issues. With Niger and Burkina Faso, it is a member of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a mutual defense pact which was created by the three states in 2023.

The security situation in the AES member countries has worsened in recent times, analysts say, with a record number of attacks by Islamic extremists. Government forces have also been accused of killing civilians they suspect of collaborating with militants.


Additional sources • AP

 Food Security

Reigniting Organic Agriculture in Oaxaca

A community project is reintroducing traditional agricultural practices to a mountainous corner of southern Mexico.
Local residents take part in Mbis Bin’s huerto workshop in Oaxaca.Luiza Franco

This article is adapted from AQ’special report on food security in Latin AmericaTo see other organizations working on this issue, click here.

SAN MIGUEL SUCHIXTEPEC, Mexico — Growing up in the rural Oaxacan town of San Baltazar Chichicapam, Faustino Hernández, 46, would help his parents grow corn, beans and squash on their plot of land. The produce fed the family, with enough left over to sell.

As an adult, though, he hasn’t been able to keep up that practice. He took different jobs in a bigger city, and planting got harder as rains became more infrequent. One recent morning, in Oaxaca’s damp mountain air, he picked up where he’d left off and learned new techniques. Hernández joined a hands-on lesson on how to plant and maintain a huerto, or vegetable garden, using only organic materials—no herbicides, synthetic pesticides or chemical fertilizers. He plans to teach what he learned to the students at the school where he works as a cleaner.

The workshop was organized by local NGO Mbis Bin, which means “seeds for sowing” in Zapotec. Mbis Bin is a community enterprise dedicated to the research, development and creation of agricultural products. The organization also provides training to promote sustainable agriculture and addresses food insecurity, which affects one in four people in Oaxaca state.

Co-founder and president Blanca Sánchez grew up seeing farmers use chemical fertilizers in her town of San Miguel Suchixtepec, where there was a common perception that these were superior to natural alternatives. After studying rural development planning in Puebla, she and three others founded Mbis Bin to help spread alternative models of planting.

That morning’s workshop was part of the Harvesting Resilience project, funded by the Citi Foundation and NUUP. The 18 participants, all residents of San Miguel Suchixtepec and nearby towns, ranged from people in their 60s to small children learning with their parents. On a hilltop plot overlooking a valley, they planted an organic huerto from scratch, following the milpa method, a Mesoamerican planting technique in which a variety of fruits and vegetables are interspersed in the same plot.

Among them was María Sánchez Hernández, 63. When it came time to add pesticides to the soil, Mbis Bin co-founder César Ramírez brought out a low-cost organic product. María Hernández shared the method she had learned from her now 84-year-old mother: adding ashes to the soil. Both work great, Hernández assured. And if all goes well, another 18 sustainable huertos will be planted in this corner of Oaxaca.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Franco is an editor, writer and podcast producer at AQ.

Follow Luiza Franco:   LinkedIn   |    X/Twitter

 

Mexico Faces Monumental Challenges with Trump 2.0

Trump’s return will spark complex negotiations on trade, immigration, and security, an expert writes.
Migrants walk in a caravan in Huixtla, Mexico en route to the U.S. on Nov. 21.Jose Eduardo Torres Cancino/Anadolu via Getty Images
Reading Time: 6 minutes

MEXICO CITY—There is little doubt that Mexico is among the countries President-elect Donald Trump will target in his first days in power. His recent threat to impose a 25% tariff on goods and services produced south of the Rio Grande and his pledges to initiate massive deportations and dismantle criminal cartels signal an era of change. And none should be more prepared for his comeback than President Claudia Sheinbaum.

While Mexico won’t be alone in facing these trying times—the “Tariff Man” is also threatening Canada and China with levies—the nascent administration of President Sheinbaum needs to act expeditiously to confront the new reality. But on many fronts, Mexico is ill-prepared for the contentious negotiations ahead. The argument that the two countries are “producing together” and therefore that tariffs on Mexico will be counterproductive for the U.S. has apparently gone unheeded in the incoming Trump 2.0 government.

Just yesterday, Trump made clear again that he plans to negotiate trade, immigration, and security simultaneously, treating them as interconnected issues to reset the countries’ relationship. Therefore, Mexico should be ready to present a multidisciplinary strategy for these three areas that combines its best arguments and actions. Migration flows, cartels trafficking synthetic drugs like fentanyl, and the fact that Mexico is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner will no longer be separate tracks of this bilateral relationship.

Reacting to Trump’s announcement, Sheinbaum hinted that Mexico could retaliate by applying its own tariffs on U.S. products. “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said in her morning briefing. Trade between the two countries reached almost $800 billion last year, so one could assume that money will talk. But things seem to be different with Trump’s comeback.

On immigration, Sheinbaum has stated that her strategy will focus on demonstrating to Trump’s transition team the contribution of Mexican migrants in the U.S., which amounts to $338 billion annually, according to the Mexican government. While she mentioned that her administration is prepared to respond to potential large-scale deportations, she has yet to provide details.

With all things considered, to confront the U.S. complex political and legal backdrop, Mexico needs to build on its institutional framework and apply its best diplomatic strategy. It will face a scenario shaped by hawkish officials and a president who are eager to impose substantial levies on Mexican imports and initiate large-scale deportations reminiscent of President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s notorious 1954 “Operation Wetback.”

The specter of mass deportations

Days ago, Trump confirmed he would declare a national emergency to start the deportations of millions of undocumented immigrants, and just before getting elected, he pledged to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to dismantle migrant criminal networks.

Despite this emphasis on enforcement, restriction, and strict interpretation of U.S. immigration law, significant legal, financial, and logistical hurdles will undoubtedly arise, as will widespread concern over potential human rights violations. The U.S. immigration system is already strained by a backlog of 3.5 million pending cases across 56 immigration courts and limited capacity with just 20,000 ICE agents. It seems ill-equipped to manage the scale of deportations envisioned by Trump’s team.

I got a good sense of the U.S. political zeitgeist as I spent Election Day in York, Pennsylvania, engaging with voters who emphasized how pivotal migration is in shaping their views. Some expressed fear of migrants, perceiving them as a national security threat, and supported calls for a completely sealed border. What struck me most were conversations with Latino voters who, somewhat paradoxically, downplayed the potential impact of stricter immigration measures. Many contended that such policies would primarily target “new arrivals” rather than long-established residents like themselves.

While some misleading narratives undermine the contributions migrants make to the U.S., it remains undeniable that immigration is a top priority for the American electorate that backed Trump, and he is likely to take strong action to meet their demands.

The appointments of Tom Homan as “border czar” and Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy in Trump’s incoming administration—neither of whom will require Senate confirmation—emphasize the former president’s commitment to an aggressive and unwavering immigration policy.

Homan, acting director of ICE during Trump’s first term, will oversee both the southern and northern U.S. borders as well as maritime and aviation security. During the presidential campaign, he warned undocumented immigrants to “start packing,” promising the “largest deportation operation” the country has ever seen. His emphasis on “well-targeted” deportations, while presented as humane, belies the scale of enforcement he intends to implement. This includes deportations of entire families, regardless of whether children have U.S. citizenship. About 4.4 million U.S.-born children under 18 live with an unauthorized immigrant parent.

Miller, who helped shape many of Trump’s most controversial immigration policies, is returning to a prominent position with even greater influence. Miller’s vision for a second Trump term includes a tenfold increase in deportations, targeting over 1 million undocumented immigrants annually. He also advocates for reductions in legal immigration.

Homan and Miller’s combined influence at the helm signals that Trump’s vision for the U.S. border will be executed beginning on Inauguration Day, with minimal concessions, regardless of the legal or economic consequences.

What can be expected?

Since Trump is a media-savvy figure, we can anticipate highly dramatic scenes during his first 100 days in office, with images of large-scale deportations dominating the narrative. We can also expect the reinstatement of programs like “Remain in Mexico,” which forces asylum seekers to wait for their hearings in Mexican border cities, and Title 42, enacted initially during the COVID-19 pandemic to block asylum claims on public health grounds. These measures, which have already strained Mexico’s border towns such as Tijuana, Matamoros and Ciudad Juárez, will likely exacerbate the pressure on already overwhelmed shelters and dire conditions.

The data highlight the scale of Mexico’s challenges. Although the number of undocumented Mexican immigrants has decreased significantly over the past two decades, total migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border surged to a record high of nearly 2.5 million in 2022-23. According to the Pew Research Center, of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S., 4 million are Mexican nationals. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the Trump administration may also deport non-Mexican immigrants to Mexico.

The economic consequences of mass deportations would be profound. Last year, Mexican migrant remittances reached a record $63 billion, providing lifelines for millions of Mexican households and serving as a pillar of the national economy, accounting for up to nearly 4.2% of GDP. A significant reduction in these flows due to deportations would deepen poverty and destabilize Mexico’s most vulnerable regions. 

Conversely, the U.S. economy also relies heavily on undocumented labor. Construction and hospitality depend on this workforce, and Trump’s deportation plan has also caused panic among American farmers. The American Business Immigration Coalition estimates that the incoming administration’s plans could lead to a decline in agricultural output of between $30 and $60 billion.

Historically, restrictive immigration policies have proven economically counterproductive. The Immigration Act of 1924 sharply curtailed annual immigration, exacerbating labor shortages during the Great Depression. On the other hand, initiatives like the Bracero Program, which facilitated regulated migration, demonstrated the economic benefits of pragmatic immigration policies. 

The Mexican side of the border

Last week, Mexico witnessed the departure of a third migrant caravan since the U.S. presidential election, comprising 1,600 individuals who set out from the southern city of Tapachula intending to reach the U.S. border before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. While some participants are Mexican nationals, many more hail from nations such as El Salvador, Guatemala and Colombia. The largest contingent comes from Venezuela, where the deepening political and economic crisis—exacerbated by the fraudulent presidential election—has forced many to flee in search of better prospects.

Mexico is poorly equipped to tackle this growing phenomenon or manage the repercussions of large-scale deportations. The Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR) and the National Migration Institute are already underfunded and overstretched. Both suffer from chronic corruption and lack institutional capacity. Furthermore, the dissolution of the National Migration Institute’s Directorate of International Affairs has left the agency without a specialized body to negotiate effectively with the U.S. 

One thing is clear: A surge in deportations, coupled with higher tariffs on Mexican goods as Trump threatens, would destabilize Mexico’s economy, increasing incentives and pressures for migration. Regardless of how high the wall might rise, migration flows would increase, with smugglers emerging as the primary beneficiaries.

Bilateral challenge

The proposed migration policies will further complicate the complex relations between the U.S. and Mexico. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy—leveraging issues such as migration, trade and security to exert pressure—will complicate Mexico’s domestic priorities while stretching its limited resources.

The stakes are monumental for Sheinbaum’s nascent administration. While her government has committed to addressing the structural drivers of migration and protecting Mexican nationals abroad, it will likely face compounded humanitarian, economic and security crises that a second Trump presidency would intensify. 

It would be naive to assume that Mexico can simply “weather” four difficult years under Trump. This perspective ignores the broader ideological shift within U.S. politics. Trump’s policies reflect a vision that has gained traction within the Republican Party, ensuring that such narratives will likely persist beyond 2028.

Mexico must prepare for a future in which migration, trade and security are inextricably linked in increasingly fraught negotiations. Building institutional capacity, strategic foresight and diplomatic acumen to navigate this complex landscape is not just advisable but imperative for safeguarding national interests in a geopolitically polarized world.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Estefan is a professor at IPADE Business School in Mexico City

 and a columnist at Reforma, Mexico’s leading newspaper.

Follow Brenda Estefan:   LinkedIn   |    X/Twitter
Ministerial Declaration Adopted on Importance of Nuclear Science for Addressing Global Challenges




IAEA Member States have adopted a declaration recognizing the important role of nuclear science, technology and applications in addressing current and evolving global challenges.

The declaration was unanimously adopted at the IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Science, Technology and Applications and the Technical Cooperation Programme in Vienna this morning.

The role of the IAEA’s Technical Cooperation Programme was stressed as a major mechanism to transfer, expand and further accelerate access to nuclear technology, materials, equipment and expertise to countries for peaceful uses and support capacity building. And the importance of the IAEA’s Nuclear Applications Laboratories in Seibersdorf, Vienna and Monaco was recognised for developing and refining relevant nuclear techniques and in delivering them to countries.

The declaration acknowledged the IAEA’s contribution to the transfer of technology and expertise through its major initiatives ZODIAC, NUTEC Plastics, Rays of Hope, Atoms4Food and Atoms4NetZero, and recognized, among other things, the need to attract more women into the field of nuclear sciences and foster the next generation of nuclear scientists, engineers and professionals. It also appreciated the IAEA’s efforts to promote partnerships throughout the UN family and with traditional and non-traditional donors, such as the private sector.

VIDEO: 
How the IAEA and Nuclear Techniques Support a Sustainable Future

26 November 2024


Nuclear science and technology play a significant role in improving the lives and well-being of people worldwide, especially in the fields of health, food and agriculture and the environment. Over decades, the IAEA has worked with countries to transfer knowledge about nuclear techniques and build up regional expertise. Four recently launched IAEA flagship initiatives are pushing that work further, helping more countries provide their people with a prosperous existence.

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