Hong Kong tycoon Jimmy Lai’s court case a ‘show trial’: son


By AFP
November 26, 2024

Sebastien Lai is concerned for his father Jimmy Lai's health - Copyright AFP -
Marie HEUCLIN

The son of the Hong Kong democracy activist Jimmy Lai said Tuesday that his father’s trial in the Chinese territory was a “sham” but that he was “proud” of how he was handling himself in court.

The 76-year-old media tycoon has been testifying for three days in Hong Kong about claims that he colluded with foreign forces, an offence carrying up to life in prison under the sweeping national security law Beijing imposed on the financial hub in mid-2020.

The founder of the now-shuttered tabloid Apple Daily is also accused of “conspiracy to publish seditious publications”.

His son Sebastien, who has been travelling the world to denounce his father’s arrest since he was detained in 2020, is following in real time the media coverage of his father’s testimony.

“The trial is one of the first times in the last four years where I have any indication of how he’s doing,” Sebastien Lai told AFP in an interview in London.

“He’s been kept in solitary confinement for the last four years. His health obviously has gotten quite a bit worse but from his statements, his spirit’s still strong and his mind’s still sharp.”

On Tuesday, Jimmy Lai told the court he had advocated “peaceful resistance” against China’s erosion of the city’s freedoms and tried to “reduce violence” during huge democracy protests in 2019.

“It’s quite heartbreaking seeing my father being dragged to court with all these sham allegations. But I’m also incredibly proud of him”,” Sebastien Lai said.

“They’ve been trying to break him for four years but he’s unbroken.”



– Hong Kong ‘on trial’ –



Sebastien Lai, who has not set foot in Hong Kong for four years because of his fight to defend his father, said he had little hope of seeing him judged impartially.

“It’s a complete show trial,” he said, noting that the three judges hearing the case were appointed by the government and there is no jury.

United Nations human rights experts have called for the release of Lai, as have major Western governments including Britain.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer raised Lai’s case with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil this month.

“My father at every turn, at every crossroad, chose to do the right thing. And Hong Kong is showing you what the cost is of doing the right thing,” Lai said.

Last week, a Hong Kong court sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to up to 10 years in prison for subversion.

Lai says his father’s trial demonstrates “a very clear decision by the government to criminalise everything that my father stands for, which is campaigning for democracy, the free press, free speech, freedom of assembly”.

“Symbolically, they’re putting my father on trial, but also these freedoms that made Hong Kong great on trial,” he said.

Lai said statements by Starmer and foreign minister David Lammy calling for his father’s release were “incredibly important” but did not go far enough.

“The United Kingdom can decide whether they are a place that protects citizens from being arbitrarily detained or not,” he said, adding that the fact his father will turn 77 next month makes his case “very urgent”.

“My father could die at any point given his age. It’s not just about freeing him now. It’s about saving his life.”

US lawmakers warn Hong Kong becoming financial crime hub

DISINFORMATION, MISINFORMATION AND OUTRIGHT SLANDER

By AFP
November 26, 2024


US lawmakers called on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to reevaluate Hong Kong's unique trade privileges - Copyright AFP Dale DE LA REY

US lawmakers urged the government Monday to rethink banking ties with Hong Kong, citing its “increasing role” in money laundering, sanctions evasions and reported funneling of banned technology to Russia.

Since Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on the semi-autonomous Chinese city in 2020, “Hong Kong has shifted from a trusted global financial center to a critical player in the deepening authoritarian axis of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, Russia, and North Korea,” the US Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The bipartisan committee called on Yellen to reevaluate Hong Kong’s unique trade privileges, which treat the financial hub as distinct from the rest of China.

The security law — put in place after huge democracy protests roiled the city — “effectively subjects Hong Kong to PRC control,” the lawmakers said.

“We must now question whether longstanding US policy towards Hong Kong, particularly towards its financial and banking sector, is appropriate,” the letter said.

According to the committee, Hong Kong has become a leading player in shifting banned Western technology to Russia, creating front companies for purchasing barred Iranian oil, facilitating the trade of Russian-sourced gold and managing “ghost ships” that engage in illegal trade with North Korea.

It cited “recent research” estimating that “nearly 40 percent of goods shipped from Hong Kong to Russia in 2023” were on US and EU lists of banned goods, including semiconductors and other technology Moscow needs for its war in Ukraine.

After the British handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997, the city was promised semi-autonomy, including judicial independence, for 50 years under the “One Country, Two Systems” agreement.

But Washington has repeatedly warned the national security law — as well as a subsequent security law known as Article 23 — eroded that firewall, effectively silencing dissent in the city and curtailing the freedoms that allowed it to operate as a global financial center.

In September, the US State Department issued an advisory warning about “new and heightened risks” for businesses operating in Hong Kong because of Article 23.

China and Hong Kong have, however, maintained the laws were needed to restore order and protect the financial hub’s economy after the massive and at times violent democracy protests in 2019.

South Korean capital hit by record November snowfall: weather agency


By AFP
November 27, 2024

The snowfall caused flight cancellations and delays - Copyright AFP JUNG YEON-JE

South Korea’s capital was blanketed Wednesday by the heaviest November snowfall since records began over a century ago, the weather agency said.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said 16.5 centimetres (6.5 inches) of snow fell by 7:00 am (2200 GMT Tuesday), compared to Seoul’s previous record of 12.4 cm on November 28, 1972.

Coincidentally being the first snow of the season in Seoul, it is the highest figure in November since the agency set up nationwide observation posts in 1907.

A heavy snow warning urged residents to “refrain from operating vehicles and engaging in outdoor activities” and to “beware of falling trees”.

Such warnings are issued when snowfall accumulates to 20 cm or more within 24 hours.

As heavy snow fell nationwide, multiple accidents occurred due to vehicles sliding on icy roads, though no major injuries have been reported.

Falling trees caused power outages, affecting more than 150 households around Seoul in the morning.

Main roads were closed for maintenance, leading to severe traffic congestion, while at least 22 domestic flights were cancelled, and several others were delayed, according to the transport ministry.

President Yoon Suk Yeol called on officials to “minimise potential damage and public inconvenience caused by the snow,” as the heavy snowfall is expected to continue until Thursday morning.

The heavy snowfall was caused by the “significant temperature difference between the sea surface and the cold air,” Youn Ki-han, director at Seoul’s Meteorology Forecast Division, told AFP.

“Over the West Sea, moisture forms, and when cold air from the north moves down as it typically does, if the West Sea is also cold as in previous years, the temperature difference is smaller,” said Youn.

However, due to the unusually warm temperatures in recent weeks, this difference became more pronounced.

Another factor behind the heavy snowfall, Youn added, is that “the strong snow was consistently carried by the westerly winds, pushing it into the Seoul metropolitan area.”

“Snow kept falling in the same areas repeatedly, leading to greater accumulation.”

Up to 20 cm of additional snowfall is expected to fall around the capital, according to the weather agency.

Japan prosecutor bows in apology to former death row inmate

DOING THE HONORABLE THING


By AFP
November 27, 2024


Hideo Yamada (L), regional chief prosecutor, bows in apology to Iwao Hakamada and his sister Hideko Hakamada - Copyright JIJI Press/AFP JAPAN POOL

A senior Japanese public prosecutor on Wednesday bowed in apology to Iwao Hakamada, the world’s longest-serving death row prisoner whose conviction was quashed this year.

The octogenarian spent 46 years on death row for a quadruple murder in 1966 but a court acquitted him in September, ruling that evidence had been fabricated.

Last month the local police chief came to Hakamada’s home to say he was sorry and on Wednesday it was the turn of regional chief prosecutor Hideo Yamada.

“We feel terribly remorseful that Mr Iwao Hakamada was put into legally unstable conditions for a significantly long period of time, forcing you and (your sister) Hideko to face hard times that are barely possible to put into words,” local media quoted Yamada as saying as he bowed in apology.

His sister Hideko, 91, who often speaks for her brother, said they were “extremely happy that he was found innocent. Thank you for coming today.”

Japan is the only major industrialised democracy other than the United States to retain capital punishment, a policy that has broad public support.

Hakamada, 88, is the fifth death row inmate granted a retrial in Japan’s post-war history. All four previous cases also resulted in exonerations.

Just a week after his acquittal, Japan’s then justice minister Hideki Makihara said abolishing the death penalty would be “inappropriate” as “heinous crimes continue to occur.”

He pledged to be “cautious and extremely sincere” when making the decision to sentence someone to death, according to Nippon Television’s online media.

Thailand to return nearly 1,000 trafficked lemurs, tortoises to Madagascar


By AFP
November 27, 2024


Lemurs, which starred as loveable supporting characters in the Dreamworks "Madagascar" movies, are found only on the Indian Ocean island 

- Copyright Thailand's Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment/AFP Handout

Thailand is sending almost 1,000 highly endangered lemurs and tortoises back to their home in Madagascar, in what both countries called their biggest ever operation against wildlife trafficking.

Thai police found and confiscated 1,117 of the live and dead animals in the southern province of Chumphon in May — the kingdom’s largest ever seizure, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

Thailand is a major transit hub for wildlife smugglers, who often sell highly-prized endangered creatures on the lucrative black market in China, Vietnam and Taiwan.

The repatriation of the 963 animals — ring-tailed lemurs, brown lemurs, spider tortoises and radiated tortoises — is a “significant step” in anti-trafficking operations, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Chalermchai Sri-on said Wednesday.

“For the first time, wildlife is being repatriated prior to the conclusion of legal proceedings,” he added.

Lemurs, which starred as loveable supporting characters in the Dreamworks “Madagascar” movies, are found only on the Indian Ocean island, and experts say they are threatened by trafficking into the pet trade.

The furry primates and the tortoises will be sent to special centres once they return to Madagascar, said its environment minister Max Andonirina Fontaine who was in Thailand to oversee the repatriation.

– ‘Make a success story’ –

Six people were arrested and charged with endangered animal trafficking in May, and could face up to 15 years in prison and be fined 1.5 million baht ($43,000), according to local Thai media.

The four species, which are endemic to Madagascar, are listed as near-extinct or threatened by the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES).

“When two countries really collaborate together we can really make a success story,” Fontaine told journalists on Wednesday.

Thailand is Southeast Asia’s biggest legal importer and exporter of CITES-listed wildlife from Madagascar, according to a report from TRAFFIC, a wildlife NGO.

But according to the 2023 report, illegal trafficking persists and “the true extent is likely to be greater than those reflected by seizure records alone,” it says.

Fontaine told AFP it is “difficult” to know the true number of animals smuggled out of Madagascar, but that the increase in seizures reflects improved anti-trafficking efforts.

In 2010, Thai customs authorities seized more than 200 live endangered tortoises being smuggled into the country from Madagascar.

In June this year Thai customs officials arrested six Indian nationals for attempting to smuggle a red panda and 86 other animals out of the kingdom.

Compressed natural gas vehicles gain slow momentum in Nigeria


By AFP
November 26, 2024

Faced with soaring petrol prices after an end to fuel subsidies, some Nigerians are convertng their cars to run on compressed natural gas 

- Copyright POOL/AFP ALLISON ROBBERT

COMPLETLY SAFE ...NOTE THE FIRE EXTINGUISHER ON THE LOWER LEFT

Tonye BAKARE

Car mechanic Adebola Omotosho has to drive eight kilometres across Nigeria’s bustling commercial hub Lagos to fill his tank with compressed natural gas.

He is among the few Nigerians who were early adopters of the alternative fuel, which can still be hard to come by.

Nevertheless, Omotosho believes the financial and environmental benefits outweigh the inconvenience of long trips to the gas station.

“Even with that, it is still far cheaper. Before now, I spent 75,000 naira (about $50) on petrol, but now I spend 12,000 on CNG every week,” he told AFP.

Authorities are pushing CNG as the silver bullet to end Nigeria’s perennial fuel shortages and a five-fold price hike since President Bola Tinubu abolished fuel subsidies in May 2023.

In September 2023, Tinubu established the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (PCNGI) to drive CNG adoption and ease Nigeria into a cleaner energy era.



– Slow progress –



The Nigerian government first supported CNG-powered vehicles in 2007, but only began promoting their widespread use last year.

The African economic powerhouse is looking to join the likes of Argentina, Brazil and Iran, where millions of vehicles are powered by the alternative fuel.

About 100,000 cars have been converted so far, with more than $200 million already invested, the CEO of the PCNGI, Michael Oluwagbemi, said.

With about 12 million vehicles on Nigerian roads, the government is targeting the conversion of one million commercial vehicles by 2026.

Private car owners will have to bear the hefty cost of conversion. It currently costs about 1.3 million naira (about $775) to convert a four-cylinder car with a 2.4-litre engine to CNG.

With some 129 million Nigerians living in poverty, according to the World Bank, and a soaring cost of living, not many in the country can afford to pay the cost out of pocket.

“The upfront cost of making that conversion is prohibitive to most … drivers,” said Chidalu Onyenso, the CEO of Earthbond, a company that helps businesses transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy.

But Oluwagbemi said salaried workers can access loans to convert their vehicles with a 12-month repayment plan.

To hit its ambitious target, the government has to reckon with the slow speed of conversions and a limited number of CNG fuelling stations.

“In the last six months before the government made it popular, I was able to convert five cars,” Jide Fasetire, a trained technician, told AFP at his workshop in Lagos.

He has now converted 20 vehicles since the government began its CNG campaign, with at least 18 more on his waiting lists. It currently takes at least two days to convert one vehicle.

“Our target timing for each conversion is … three hours but we’ve not been able to achieve that,” he said, explaining that technicians are still learning the skills necessary.

Officials say 75 new stations are being built across the country for ease of access.



– Scepticism –



In September and October, a spate of posts on the social media platform X claimed that conversion to CNG was unsafe, with one widely-read post calling it a “time bomb”.

An explosion of a CNG-powered car in the southern Edo state and the news of Malaysia walking back its CNG ambitions over safety concerns further fuelled public scepticism.

Officials blamed the explosion on the use of “uncertified, and poorly fabricated CNG cylinders” and vowed stricter compliance measures.

“Safety issues from the proliferation of unlicensed conversion centres pose a grave security risk,” an energy expert Kelvin Emmanuel told AFP.

Babatunde Odukoya, a freight forwarder who spends 150,000 weekly on fuelling his mid-size crossover SUV, told AFP that talk of the Edo explosion had been “discouraging”.

He is, however, open to switching to CNG if he is convinced of its safety.

Several car owners told AFP that they have not had any issues with the gas, and Oluwagbemi insisted that a properly converted vehicle is less risky than one running on diesel or petrol.



– ‘Cleaner air’ –



Onyenso argues mass adoption of CNG will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality and cut maintenance costs.

However, she warned that CNG adoption should be seen as part of Nigeria’s journey to sustainable energy and not its destination.

“As Nigeria makes this transition to CNG, it should be seen as something that is not done as just a permanent switchover, but … in concert with greening the grid,” Onyenso said.

AFRIKA IS A COUNTRY

Fresh fury as Mozambique police mow down protester


By AFP
November 27, 2024

A protester throws a stone at an armoured vehicle during clashes in Mozambique's capital Maputo - Copyright AFP ALFREDO ZUNIGA

Fresh anti-government protests erupted in Mozambique Wednesday after a police vehicle mowed down a woman at a demonstration in the capital in support of the opposition leader disputing October elections.

Venancio Mondlane has rejected the results of the October 9 vote and led a weeks-long standoff that has been brutally suppressed by the police.

AFP reporters at the scene of one of Wednesday’s protests said demonstrators hurled stones at security forces who fired bullets and tear gas as clashes broke out after a woman was struck while standing behind a large banner of Mondlane.

In a video of the incident that went viral on social media, an armoured police vehicle is seen driving over the woman. Other clips show her being helped into another vehicle, apparently alive but in a serious condition.

“I saw it with my own eyes, her arm is broken, her leg is broken,” a witness told AFP. “We don’t know if she’ll survive.”

Elsewhere in Maputo, people marched to the central Fighter’s Square, a hub for the city’s poorer suburbs, shouting slogans such as “Frelimo out” against the ruling party that has been in power since 1975.

“I’m sorry for what happened with that woman,” said Joaquim Fernando, one of around 100 protesters at the scene. “I don’t agree with a brutal act like that. Every citizen has the right to demonstrate,” the 26-year-old told AFP.

– ‘Dozens’ killed –

“We demand that Venancio Mondlane be our president because that’s who we voted for,” said another protestor, Olavio Jose, 24.

Rights groups have accused police of killing dozens of people in post-election protests after the authorities said Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo got 71 percent, far ahead of Mondlane’s 20 percent of votes.

The Centre for Democracy and Human Rights, a local civil society group, told AFP last week it knew of 65 people killed in police operations against the demonstrations.

Human Rights Watch said Monday that Mozambican security forces killed at least 10 children and injured dozens more.

President Filipe Nyusi, who is due to step down in January, said in a state of the nation address on November 19 that 19 people had died, including five police officers.

There were also new protests Wednesday at Mozambique’s main border post with South Africa where trucks were being prevented from moving, according to the South African border authority.

The crossing, a key link for exporters using Maputo’s Indian Ocean port, has been closed several times by protests over the past weeks.

Opposition figures killed as Tanzania holds local election


By AFP
November 27, 2024

Chadema leader Freeman Mbowe was briefly arrested last weekend after police broke up a rally using tear gas, according to the party - Copyright AFP/File ERICKY BONIPHACE

Tanzanian opposition party Chadema, said two of its members were killed on the eve of Wednesday’s local elections, and accused the authorities of rigging the vote.

Chadema said in a statement that a candidate, George Juma Mohamed, was shot dead by police after being attacked by ruling party supporters at his home in Mkese in central Tanzania late Tuesday.

Police confirmed the death and said it occurred after a group of prison officers were called in to deal with a clash between supporters of Chadema and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

The prison officers came under attack and fired “warning shots” that led to Juma Mohamed’s death, the police said in a statement.

Chadema said another local party leader, Steven Chalamila, was killed in a machete attack in Tunduma near the border with Zambia.

“We condemn the murders that have occurred and demand that the police take immediate action to arrest and bring all perpetrators to justice,” the party said.

Chadema also claimed there had been election irregularities in seven constituencies.

It said its agents had found pre-marked ballots for ruling CCM party candidates in several locations, but were arrested by police when they tried to intervene.

“We demand that TAMISEMI (the local government ministry) provide an explanation to the public regarding the pre-marked ballots for CCM candidates in various parts of the country,” Chadema said.

Polling stations were due to close at 1400 GMT.

About 31 million Tanzanians are eligible to cast ballots for more than 80,000 street and village leaders who wield considerable power in the East African nation.

Hundreds of voters queued across the country well before the official polls opened.

The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, a dominant force for decades, is facing a strong challenge from Chadema that boycotted the polls in 2019 citing violence and intimidation.

Chadema has said many of its candidates were unfairly disqualified from this year’s vote.

Party leader Freeman Mbowe was briefly arrested last weekend after police broke up a rally using tear gas, according to the party.

Hassan vowed on Tuesday that it would be a fair contest.

It is a key test for the country’s democratic institution ahead of the presidential election next October.

“We are electing local leaders who are also important campaigners during the general election,” Chadema’s director of communication and foreign affairs John Mrema told AFP on Tuesday, calling the contest an “important pillar”.

Hassan took office after the sudden death of her authoritarian predecessor John Magufuli in 2021.

She was initially feted for easing restrictions that Magufuli had imposed on the opposition and the media in the country of around 67 million people.

But rights groups and Western governments have criticised what they see as renewed repression ahead of the votes, with arrests of Chadema politicians as well as abductions and murders of opposition figures.

In 2019, the opposition boycott paved the way for a clean sweep of the seats by CCM.

Namibia votes with ruling party facing its toughest race yet


By  AFP
November 27, 2024

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah would be the country's first woman president if elected - Copyright Thailand's Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment/AFP Handout
Clément VARANGES

Namibia’s vice president was among the first voters in elections Wednesday that could see her become the desert nation’s first woman leader, even as her ruling SWAPO party faces a strong challenge to its 34-year grip on power.

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, a 72-year-old veteran of the South West Africa People’s Organisation, cast her ballot in the capital Windhoek as polls opened at 7:00 am (0500 GMT).

She urged the country’s roughly 1.5 million registered voters to do the same before polls close at 9:00 pm.

The vote “will have an impact for the next five years in your life and in the life of every Namibian and any person who’s visiting this country,” said the candidate popularly known as NNN.

SWAPO has governed the mineral-rich country since independence in 1990 but, amid complaints about high unemployment and enduring inequalities, Nandi-Ndaitwah could be forced into a second-round run-off if she fails to garner at least half the vote.

Waiting in the early morning sun to cast her ballot, Frieda Fillipus, 31, said she wanted to see a woman run the country.

“The future is female,” said Fillipus, who works in the key mining sector.

“The outcome will be tight,” said self-employed Hendry Amupanda, 32, who had been queuing since 9:00 pm the night before.

“I want the country to get better and people to get jobs,” said Amupanda, wearing slippers and equipped with a chair, blanket and snacks.

Nandi-Ndaitwah has four main challengers including Panduleni Itula, 67, a former dentist and lawyer who founded the Independent Patriots for Change party in 2020.

Itula took 29 percent of votes in the 2019 elections, losing to SWAPO leader Hage Geingob, who garnered 56 percent of votes.

Despite the loss, his performance was remarkable considering Geingob, who died in February, took almost 87 percent five years earlier.

For the first time in the southern African nation’s recent history, a second round is “a somewhat realistic option”, said Henning Melber, of the Nordic Africa Institute at the University of Uppsala.

A run-off would take place within 60 days of the announcement of the results of the first round due on Saturday, according to the election calendar.

Namibia is a major uranium and diamond exporter but not all of its nearly three million people have benefitted from that wealth.

“There’s a lot of mining activity that goes on in the country, but it doesn’t really translate into improved infrastructure, job opportunities,” said independent political analyst Marisa Lourenco, based in Johannesburg.

“That’s where a lot of the frustration is coming from, (especially) the youth,” she added.

Unemployment among 15- to 34-year-olds is estimated at 46 percent, according to the latest figures from 2018. This is almost triple the national average.

– ‘Immediate needs’ –

Though the party’s founders led the country to independence from white-ruled South Africa in 1990, its current leaders are nervous about suffering the same fate as other liberation-era movements in the region.

In the past six months, South Africa’s African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority and the Botswana Democratic Party was ousted after almost six decades in power.

In Mozambique, though the ruling Frelimo won recent elections, civil society and opposition groups have protested for weeks claiming fraud and demanding change.

“Young people have been feeling the brunt of the current economic downturn in a lot of African countries,” said Nic Cheeseman, a professor specialised in African politics at the University of Birmingham.

“It’s not just that they’re young and it’s not just that they don’t remember, it’s also that they really feel the pinch of the economic crisis.”

“The challenges affecting Namibia, similar to the challenges affecting other African countries, are shifting the political landscape drastically,” said Tendai Mbanje, an election expert at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance.

“Elections are (now) about the immediate needs of the citizens, and particularly young people.”

Bumper election year brings headwinds for liberal democracies

END OF INCUMBENCY

TOSS THE BUMS OUT


By AFP
November 26, 2024

France's Emmanuel Macron (L) and Germany's Olaf Scholz have suffered electoral setbacks this year - Copyright AFP/File SAMUEL CORUM

Célia LEBUR

Voting by more than half the world’s population in 2024 elections has left many liberal democracies facing crises of confidence, political fragmentation and heightened polarisation, with some observers fearing new wind in the sails of authoritarianism.

The bumper election year was headlined by the November polls in the United States, democracy’s self-described “shining city upon a hill”, where Donald Trump emerged victorious.

Many post-vote analyses have focused on the economic drivers for the public’s rejection of the Democratic party incumbents.

Trump’s repeated threats to undermine the rule of law also appear to have done little to discourage voters.

The Republican has vowed to bring to heel a justice system that had targeted him with multiple investigations and trials, to punish hostile media outlets and even name civil servants on the basis of their ideological allegiances.

If Trump does everything he has said he will, “the United States will see the most intense assault on checks and balances and civil liberties in its peacetime history”, political scientist Larry Diamond wrote in Foreign Affairs.



– Polarised and fragmented –



“We are at a dangerous moment, not only in the US but in many other places,” Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told AFP.

For the past two decades, the Western democratic model installed since 1945 and reinforced following the collapse of the Soviet bloc after 1989 has been on the back foot.

The US-based organisation Freedom House has highlighted increased violence and suspected or confirmed manipulation around many elections worldwide.

Elsewhere, some so-called “hybrid” systems saw powerful incumbents retaining their position but faced with determined, organised and new opposition.

India’s Narendra Modi and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered setbacks at legislative and municipal elections respectively.

Even in more competitive democratic systems, such as in Europe, “we are seeing increasingly polarised and fragmented politics”, Bergmann said.

Germany’s governing alliance between Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals collapsed this month, with little clarity about how a new government will look following new polls in February.

And in the neighbouring Netherlands, a fragile four-way coalition is battling internal division as it tries to stay afloat following the previous government’s 2023 implosion.

France, where monolithic parties of left and right for decades took turns at power, has also seen its political landscape shattered since centrist Emmanuel Macron surged to the presidency in 2017.

His snap election surprise in summer has produced a parliament almost evenly divided between three blocs — a united left, centre-right and far right.

With all sides at daggers drawn on almost every subject, reform efforts have been paralysed.



– ‘Halt change’ –



The volatile state of Western democracies can be explained by a “crisis of confidence in political parties and in the media that is unprecedented since 1945”, said Bertrand Badie, an international relations expert at French university Sciences Po.

Voters were reacting to “a drought in what’s on offer in politics”, he added.

“What were Macron or Kamala Harris offering in France or in the US beyond preventing their rivals — Trump or the far right led by Marine Le Pen — from taking power? This creates a big problem with legitimacy.”

Defiance towards traditional parties and incumbents has added to the attraction of populist and far-right parties.

Those made big gains in June’s European elections as seen in votes in Germany, France, the Netherlands, as well as in Italy and Hungary prior to 2024.

Many voters are opting for politicians promising the toughest action on issues including immigration and purchasing power.

Personality is vital too, with Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Trump managing to project implacable authority.

“The world and societies are going through a major transformation. Liberal globalisation has not brought answers for millions of people concerned about sometimes radical changes in the way we live alongside others, travel or produce,” said Gilles Gressani, head of French geopolitical magazine Le Grand Continent.

“In consequences, there’s increasingly strong demand to halt change — and because that seems increasingly unlikely, the illusive temptation to withdraw” behind national borders, he added.

Brussels, not Paris, will decide EU-Mercosur trade deal: Lula


By AFP
November 27, 2024


French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are on opposing sides when it comes to the EU-Mercosur trade pact - Copyright AFP/File Ludovic MARIN

France does not get to decide whether a free trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc goes ahead — only Brussels does, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday.

Lula added firmly: “I intend to sign this agreement this year.”

Brazil’s position, stressed by Lula in a speech on Brazilian industry, crosses swords with that of France, which is determined to block the trade pact.

The blockbuster deal between the 27-country European Union and Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay — has been 25 years in the making and would create the world’s biggest free trade zone.

The contours of the agreement with the Mercosur bloc — which Brazil dominates — were agreed in 2019, but progress on completing the pact has stalled since.

On Tuesday, France’s parliament overwhelmingly backed President Emmanuel Macron in rejecting the EU-Mercosur deal, which has prompted protests by French farmers fearing it would bring unfair competition.

Trade policy for the whole European Union, however, is determined by the European Commission, run by Ursula von der Leyen, on the basis of what most EU member states agree.

“If the French don’t want the agreement, they don’t get to blow the final whistle — the European Commission will blow that whistle,” Lula said.

“Ursula von der Leyen has the power to make the agreement happen,” he said.

France needs three other EU countries to join it to form a blocking minority against the deal. So far Poland has publicly rallied to its side.

But Germany and Spain have both said they want the trade deal completed swiftly.

At a G20 summit in Rio last week, Macron reiterated his opposition to the Mercosur deal and said France was working with Poland, Austria, Italy and other EU countries “that have the same concerns.”

Von der Leyen, who also participated in the G20 summit, admitted on arrival that her commission had a “big task” in getting EU member countries behind the trade deal, adding: “The devil is always in the details.”

The EU’s outgoing foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, this week backed the deal being done by the end of the year.

“This is about much more than just trade; it is above all a geopolitical issue,” he said in his online blog.

That reflects European concerns that China is making trade inroads into Latin America — and that the world could be heading into a period of trade wars triggered under Donald Trump’s protectionist “America First” policies.

Canadian fund drops bid for Spanish pharma firm Grifols


By AFP
November 27, 2024

Barcelona-based Grifols makes medicine derived from blood plasma - Copyright AFP/File Mauro PIMENTEL

Canadian investment fund Brookfield said Wednesday it has dropped its bid for Spanish pharmaceutical firm Grifols following disagreement over its valuation.

Brookfield and the Grifols family, which owns about a third of the Barcelona-based company that makes medicine derived from blood plasma, have since July been in talks to take it private.

Earlier this month Brookfield made a 6.45-billion-euro bid for Grifols, offering a tentative non-binding price of 10.50 euros ($11) per share.

Grifols swiftly rejected the bid, saying it “significantly underestimated the fundamental prospects and long-term potential” of the company.

In a statement sent to Spanish stock market regulator CNMV, Brookfield said it was “not in a position to continue with a potential offer” for Grifols.

Grifols said its board agreed that “it is not feasible that the transaction goes ahead” and remains focused on “improving the company’s long-term value”.

Its share price plunged in January after US hedge fund Gotham City released a research note accusing the company of “manipulating” its reported debt and operational results to “artificially reduce” its debt ratio, and therefore its financing costs.

Grifols has repeatedly denied the allegations.

Gotham City is a prominent “short-seller” hedge fund that borrows stock in a company and sells it, hoping to buy it back cheaper to return it to the lender and pocket the difference.

Grifols traces its history back to 1909, first as a blood analysis and transfusion laboratory before specialising in products derived from blood plasma.

It is present in more than 30 countries including Australia, the United States and Japan. It posted revenue of 6.6 billion euros in 2023, a 10.9 percent increase over the previous year.