US Supreme Court Justice Gorsuch recuses himself from environmental case

ONLY AFTER BEING 'OUTED'

Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch recused himself from an upcoming environmental case scheduled for next week after reviewing the current ethics code, according to a letter sent Wednesday to attorneys involved in the case. Some House Democrats had urged him to recuse. File Photo by Eric Lee/UPI | License Photo

Dec. 5 (UPI) -- Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch recused himself from an upcoming environmental case scheduled for next week after reviewing the current ethics code, according to a letter sent to attorneys involved in the case.

The brief letter dated Wednesday from law clerk Scott S. Harris was posted on the Supreme Court website.

"I am writing to inform you that, consistent with the Code of Conduct for Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States, Justice Gorsuch has determined that he will not continue to participate in this case," Harris wrote.

The case is Seven County Infrastructure Coalition vs. Eagle County, Colo.

Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., who wrote a letter signed by other House Democrats urging Gorsuch's recusal, hailed the decision to recuse.

"I applaud Justice Gorsuch for doing the right and honorable thing," Johnson said in a statement. "It is important that the court show the public that it is not in the pocket of billionaire benefactors."

Thirteen House Democrats signed the letter Johnson wrote Gorsuch on Nov. 20 urging him to recuse himself from the case.

"Recent reporting exposed that you have a serious and obvious conflict of interest that demands your recusal," the letter said. "In your prior career as a corporate lawyer, you were the long-time attorney for Denver-based billionaire Philip F. Anschutz and his network of companies for many years."

The Democratic House members said Anschutz "has a direct financial interest in the outcome of Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colo."

The letter said Anschutz lobbied Congress and the George W. Bush administration for Gorsuch to be appointed to the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit.

Anschutz also bankrolls the right-wing special interest groups the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation, according to the Democrat House members who signed the letter.

It was the Federalist Society that put Gorsuch on a list used by then-president Donald Trump to elevate Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

Anschutz Exploration Corp. filed a brief in the case in question.

Supreme Court Justice ethics came under scrutiny after Justice Clarence Thomas' acceptance of undisclosed valuable free vacations and trips from billionaire and GOP donor Harlan Crow were revealed by Pro Publica reporting.

Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., who wrote the letter signed by other House Democrats urging Gorsuch's recusal, hailed the decision to recuse.

"I applaud Justice Gorsuch for doing the right and honorable thing," Johnson said in a statement. "It is important that the court show the public that it is not in the pocket of billionaire benefactors."

The other Supreme Court Justices will hear oral arguments in the case Tuesday.

At issue in the case is whether environmental impacts of oil production should be considered when deciding to build a railway line for oil transportation in Utah.

London police make 500 arrests using facial recognition tech


By AFP

December 6, 2024

London's Metropolitan Police force is using facial recognition technology

 - Copyright AFP Will EDWARDS

London’s Metropolitan Police force said on Friday that it had used facial recognition technology to make more than 500 arrests in 2024 for offences ranging from shoplifting to rape.

The force uses live facial recognition in specific areas of the UK capital, positioning a van equipped with cameras in a pre-agreed location.

The cameras capture live footage of passers-by and compare their faces against a pre-approved watchlist, generating an alert if a match is detected.

Civil liberties campaigners have criticised the use of such technology, and advocacy group Big Brother Watch has launched legal action to stop its expansion.

“The technology works by creating a ‘faceprint’ of everyone who passes in front of camera —- processing biometric data as sensitive as a fingerprint, often without our knowledge or consent,” the group says on is website.

“This dangerously authoritarian surveillance is a threat to our privacy and freedoms -— it has no place on the streets of Britain,” it adds.

The Met says it is a “forerunner” in using the technology, adding that it helps “make London safer” by helping detect “offenders who pose significant risks to our communities”.

Of the 540 arrests, more then 50 were for serious offences involving violence against women and girls, including offences such as strangulation, stalking, domestic abuse and rape.

More than 400 of those arrested have already been charged or cautioned.

“This technology is helping us protect our communities from harm,” said Lindsey Chiswick, the Met’s Director of Performance.

“It is a powerful tool that supports officers to identify and focus on people who present the highest risk that may otherwise have gone undetected,” she added.

Responding to privacy fears, police said that the biometric data of any passer-by not on a watchlist is “immediately and permanently deleted”.

TikTok loses appeal of US law ordering sale from Chinese owner

JUST NOT TIK TOK'S WEEK

By AFP
December 6, 2024


Social media app TikTok has come under scrutiny from the US government - Copyright AFP/File Antonin UTZ

TikTok faces a US ban after an appeals court on Friday rejected its challenge to a law requiring the video-sharing app to divest from its Chinese parent company by January 19.

The potential ban could strain US-China relations just as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20.

The US government alleges TikTok allows Beijing to collect data and spy on users. It also says TikTok is a conduit to spread propaganda, though China and app owner ByteDance strongly deny these claims.

But Trump has emerged as an unlikely ally, arguing that a ban would mainly benefit Meta’s platforms owned by Mark Zuckerberg.

The law, signed by President Joe Biden in April, would block TikTok from US app stores and web hosting services unless ByteDance sells the platform by January 19.

The case is now likely to go to the US Supreme Court.

In Friday’s legal ruling, a three-judge panel rejected TikTok’s main arguments that the US security concerns justifying the law were speculative.

They also disagreed that less drastic alternatives than a sale by ByteDance would solve the issues raised by the US government.

The judges also rejected the notion put forward by TikTok that the law was really about censoring content rather than security.

“This conclusion is supported by ample evidence that the Act is the least restrictive means of advancing the Government’s compelling national security interests,” the judges said in their opinion.

Trump’s stance reflects broader conservative criticism of Meta for allegedly suppressing right-wing content, including Trump’s ban from Facebook after the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.

It marks a reversal from Trump’s first term, when he tried to ban TikTok over similar security concerns.

That effort got bogged down in the courts when a federal judge questioned how the move would affect free speech and blocked the initiative.

Trump’s newly nominated tech policy czar David Sacks also opposes the ban as government overreach.

Trump’s shift coincides with his connection to Jeff Yass, a major Republican donor with ByteDance investments.

The President-elect launched his own TikTok account in June, gaining 14.6 million followers, but hasn’t posted since Election Day.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Tiktok CEO Shou Zi Chew has sought support from Elon Musk, who has close ties with Trump.

Despite the uncertainty, TikTok’s US presence continues growing.

The platform reported $100 million in Black Friday sales for its new shopping venture, and Emarketer projects US ad revenue will reach $15.5 billion next year, accounting for 4.5 percent of total digital ad spending in the country.

Emarketer lead Analyst Jasmine Enberg warned a ban would significantly disrupt the social media landscape, benefiting Meta, YouTube, and Snap while harming content creators and small businesses dependent on TikTok.

How lead exposure became the Notre-Dame fire's toxic legacy

Analysis

As Paris watched flames consume its beloved Notre-Dame Cathedral five years ago, no one could have imagined just how toxic the smoke spewing from the disaster could be. The rising plume contained several billion particles of lead from the collapsing roof and spire. Now that the cathedral has been identically rebuilt, a group of associations is trying to break the silence on the danger posed by this metal.


Issued on: 05/12/2024 -
By: Cyrielle CABOT

Notre-Dame Cathedral a few days before its reopening, November 27, 2024. © AFP


Notre-Dame de Paris is preparing to open its doors to the public on December 8 after five years of rebuilding. From its iconic spire to its impressive roof, the cathedral is once again visible on the Paris skyline. But behind the scenes of this grand reopening lies a darker truth.

“It was the perfect opportunity to raise awareness of the dangers of lead,” said Mathé Toullier, who spearheads Notre-Dame Lead (collectif "plomb Notre-Dame" in French), a group of associations. “But we missed our chance.” Founded just after the fire that ravaged the cathedral in 2019, the group was created to sound the alarm on the dangers associated with the metal.

Touiller is also president of an organisation that supports victims of lead poisoning and their families. When she saw the huge yellow cloud rising from Notre-Dame five years ago, she quickly became concerned. “I immediately knew what was happening. Lead dust was spreading all across the capital,” she recalled.

As the flames engulfed the cathedral, a whopping 400 tonnes of lead from the roof and spire went up in smoke, according to French authorities. The cloud then continued its journey well beyond the city of light and travelled 16 kilometres east of Paris, according to the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

Dangers of lead

It has been widely documented that lead can be toxic, even in small doses. “However much a person is exposed, lead poisoning can cause neurological, renal or cardiovascular problems – especially in children but also in adults. It can also impact fertility, increase the risk of cancer or cause foetal abnormalities in pregnant women,” explained Annie Thébaud-Mony, a public health researcher at France's national institute of health and medical research (INSERM) and president of the Henri Pézérat association.

"There is no level of exposure to lead that is known to be without harmful effects," the World Health Organization reports in its lead poisoning fact-sheet. And according to a study published in 2023 by the Lancet Planetary Health journal, 5.5 million people worldwide died from lead-related cardiovascular illnesses in 2019.

Read moreNotre-Dame set for further restorations, thanks to generous donations

The day after Notre-Dame caught fire, Toullier and Thébaud-Mony launched their collective, immediately sounding the alarm on the dangers of lead. For weeks the two women, flanked by volunteers, handed out leaflets around the site of the cathedral – in bars, shops and near apartment buildings. They informed local residents of best practices like regular hand-washing, cleaning clothes at high temperatures and taking shoes off before walking into their homes, imploring them to avoid anything that could spread toxic lead dust.

In the meantime, the collective also called on authorities to take urgent action to confine the cathedral and decontaminate it immediately – but also inform those working or living near the site about the risks. “Nothing was done,” Toullier lamented.
A pause in construction

Lead pollution only became a topic of concern three months after the fire, in the summer of 2019. Faced with very high levels of the metal and no measures implemented to curb its presence, the French Labour Inspectorate warned of a “dangerous situation for workers” inside the stricken cathedral. The city of Paris was eventually forced to suspend the reconstruction of Notre-Dame and cordon off the square in front of it, a move widely covered by media at the time.

In the weeks that followed, drastic protection measures were put into practice. Workers were required to wear overalls and high-protection masks, and a mandatory shower and foot bath system was implemented. “Measures to prevent lead exposure are stricter than anywhere else,” French MP Sophie Mette stated in a 2022 parliamentary report on the site.

“But Notre-Dame was not the only location to be affected,” Toullier pointed out. “Lead levels were very high all around the cathedral, on metro platforms, in bookshops on the Place Saint-Michel and even in surrounding schools.”

At the end of summer 2019, Notre-Dame Lead reported levels of up to 123,000 μg/m², which represented 25 times the "standard" threshold of 5,000 µg/m² set by the regional health authority ARS, at the Place Saint-Michel, a 10-minute walk from the cathedral. “Yet no significant clean-up operation was carried out. It was as if the problem didn’t exist,” Toullier lamented.

Read moreForeign artisans rolled up their sleeves to help rebuild France's Notre-Dame Cathedral

Widely shared by the collective, the alarming figures pushed some artisans to action. “Some unionised workers demanded to exercise their right of withdrawal [from the works] or asked for lead tests to be carried out so they could measure the level of lead in their blood,” explained Benoît Martin, secretary of the Paris branch of the CGT trade union and member of the Notre-Dame Lead group. Some surrounding schools even decided to postpone the start of the new academic year in order to carry out a thorough clean-up.

In June 2021, the French Public Health agency concluded that the Notre-Dame fire had not caused a “significant” increase in blood lead levels for children living nearby. The public was reassured, but the collective remained sceptical. “We don’t know who had their blood tested or when,” Thébaud-Mony said. “But more importantly, the authorities waited far too long to carry out the tests. Once three weeks have passed it is no longer possible to detect lead in the bloodstream. It has either been evacuated or stored in the bones.”

Tired of not being heard, the collective eventually filed a complaint for endangering others in July 2021. The investigation is still ongoing.

For Judith Rainhorn, a historian specialised in lead pollution, the silence from authorities came as no surprise. For her, it is “yet another episode in the long history of denying the toxicity of lead”.

“We have been using lead on a massive scale since the 19th century. It is a familiar product and that is why we tend to play down the risks,” Rainhorn explained. “Unlike asbestos, it still has a fairly positive reputation. That is starting to change, but it is taking time.”

Rebuilding an identical structure - lead roof and all

The decision to rebuild the spire and roof of Notre-Dame exactly as they had been in the 19th century by covering them in lead deepened the anger already felt by the members of Notre-Dame Lead and raised the eyebrows of politicians, non-profits and local residents.

To justify the decision, the institution in charge of restoring the cathedral, Rebuilding Notre-Dame de Paris, ruled out any danger of direct exposure to the substance. “Covering the roof structures of the nave, the choir and two arms of the transept with lead does not expose any member of the public to lead, as they are located some forty metres from the ground and are inaccessible,” the institution told French daily newspaper La Croix in a December 2023 article, assuring it was taking the matter “very seriously”.

“But what about run-off water from the roof, which will be laden with lead?” asked Thébaud-Mony. In a notice published in January 2021, the French High Council for Public Health estimated that “the roof of Notre-Dame alone … would emit around 21kg of lead per year (about two tonnes per century) in run-off water”.

“And what will happen if there is another fire?” Thébaud-Mony insisted.

“We are obviously complying with the law and regulations in all areas concerned. No one’s health is being put at risk. In addition to new fire protection of the highest standard, including a misting system in the attic … we are going to innovate by installing a system that collects and filters rainwater running off the cathedral roof,” the institution told French daily Le Figaro in December 2023.

“Lead could have been replaced by another substance like zinc or copper,” said Thébaud-Mony. “When alternatives exist, why choose lead and risk human health?” This was the case for the Chartres cathedral, destroyed by a fire in 1836. The original structure had lead roofing, which was replaced by copper when it was rebuilt. Though perceived as less stable, copper is significantly less toxic.
Long-term monitoring

With just a few days to go before the grand reopening, the collective has decided not to give up. “I am worried because lead pollution, regardless of whether it is inside or outside, is still there – especially with the new spire and roof. We cannot give up,” Thébaud-Mony concluded.

“Sensors should be installed to measure lead levels inside the cathedral on a regular basis,” union representative Martin insisted. “We need to ensure there are no risks to visitors.”

For now, the collective is calling on authorities to ensure workers who helped rebuild Notre-Dame and local residents are monitored in the long-run. “What we fear is that people will fall ill without necessarily making the connection to lead,” Martin said. “Illness can creep in long after exposure and the link to lead can quickly be forgotten.”

(This article was originally published in French and translated into English by Lara Bullens)

Foreign artisans rolled up their sleeves to help rebuild France's Notre-Dame Cathedral

LIKE THE ORIGINAL

Explainer

Paris's Notre-Dame Cathedral reopens on December 7, five years after a devastating fire left it in tatters. As part of a monumental effort to restore the Gothic landmark to its former glory, artisans from all over the world stepped in to do their part. From a Belgian organ builder to an American timber framer, each contributed unique expertise.


Issued on: 02/12/2024 - 
By: Lara BULLENS

From left to right: glass painters Stephan Lübbers, Felix Busse, Elodie Schneider, Stefan Lücking and Sascha Aretz stand atop Notre-Dame. © Stefan Lücking


It was a day that would go down in history. As Parisians were streaming out of their work places on April 15, 2019 – joining the rush hour parade to scutter home or pick up their children from school – dark hues of reddish orange and plumes of smoke filled the sky. Notre-Dame de Paris, the landmark cathedral in the heart of the city, was burning.

Read moreWorld 'watches and weeps' as Notre-Dame burns

The blaze gutted the landmark, destroying the roof and causing the steeple to collapse. In the aftermath of the disaster, images from inside Notre-Dame showed its immense walls standing sturdily with statues still in place and a gleaming golden cross above the altar – and the floor covered in charred rubble from the fallen roof. Entire sections of vaulting at the top of the structure had collapsed. And although the bell towers and most of the iconic circular stained-glass windows remained intact, the damage left France reeling in shock.

What came next was a rocky five-year road to restoration that required monumental efforts. Around 250 companies and hundreds of artisans, architects and other experts got down to brass tacks to reconstruct Notre-Dame – with costs reaching into the hundreds of millions of euros. There was also the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused significant delays.


Works eventually resumed in 2021 with skilled carpenters, glassmakers and stonemasons rolling up their sleeves to toil across the cathedral site and workshops in France and beyond.

A masterpiece of Gothic architecture and a UNESCO World Heritage site, the iconic cathedral is now set to reopen its doors on December 7 and 8.

But this may not have been possible without the help of skilled craftsmen and -women from all over the world who pulled their weight in the reconstruction efforts.

Read moreNotre-Dame set for further restorations, thanks to generous donations
Johan Deblieck, the Belgian organ builder

Though the main organ of Notre-Dame was in large part spared by the flames, it was covered in soot and damaged by humidity. This was an “absolute miracle”, according to Olivier Latry, one of its main players.

It has now been fully cleaned but it will take six months of harmonisation before its 8,000 pipes recover their full sound potential.

In the meantime, the star of the show will get a little sibling, thanks to organ builder Johan Deblieck.

Read moreSpared from fire, Notre-Dame's organ set for lengthy restoration

Based in Lennik, a municipality southwest of Brussels, Belgium, Deblieck opened his workshop in 1993 and has become a global authority on “positives” – small pipe organs built to be more or less mobile. Hardly higher than a piano, these instruments have been used in religious functions since the Middle Ages.

In January 2023, he received a phone call that he said he would never forget. “I was asked if I would be interested in crafting a positive organ [for Notre-Dame] … and I was surprised by this question being asked on a simple phone call,” Deblieck recalled. He accepted the commission and was given a deadline for the end of October 2024.

Aside from being entrusted in 2020 with building an organ for the Bach-Archiv, a cultural institution in Germany dedicated to the composer Johann Sebastian Bach, Deblieck said the Notre-Dame order was “one of the most beautiful” he had received.

“There is nothing more prestigious than Notre-Dame de Paris,” Deblieck said. “I was shaken for three weeks.”
Johan Deblieck with one of his organs. © Courtesy of Johan Deblieck

The organ he crafted for Notre-Dame comprises just over 200 pipes and measures 1.25 by 1.15 metres. “It has wheels and can be moved around easily, but it is intended to be placed at the very front of the church where the choir is,” explained Deblieck. His instrument will join the great rood screen organ and the choir organ in the cathedral, serving its purpose by accompanying services and choirs for years to come.

When the positive organ sounds, Deblieck explained, “there is a sort of alchemy that occurs between the sounds that emanate from it and the person who plays it.” But he said the true magic happens when it is used for improvisation, a talent he believes Latry masters.

In two weeks time, Deblieck will travel down to Paris to deliver the organ himself. “I think it is going to be a strange and surreal moment,” he admitted.
Will Gusakov, the American timber framer

Will Gusakov found out about Notre-Dame catching fire in 2019 when a friend of his from Paris sent him a photo. “I was incredulous,” he recalled. “How could that possibly be happening?” he remembered asking himself.

Gusakov is a craftsman who runs a timber framing company in Vermont, USA. His journey to eventually joining in the effort to rebuild Notre-Dame began with Carpenters Without Borders, an organisation based in France made up of traditional woodworkers who volunteer to restore unique constructions like moat bridges in Normandy or vernacular houses in China.

The tight-knit community spoke about what was going to happen to this pivotal architectural heritage that had been lost and brainstormed on how they could contribute. Two French companies with knowledge of the centuries-old carpentry methods used to build Notre-Dame in the 13th century were eventually chosen to lead the project. Traditional carpenter Loïc Desmonts, based in Normandy, would rebuild the nave woodwork alongside Ateliers Perrault, a company in western France specialising in historical monuments.

But they couldn’t do it alone, so the tight-knit community from Carpenters Without Borders stepped in to help, including Gusakov. He packed up and moved to rural Normany for six months with his wife and two young children, ready to pause life in Vermont to take part in this mammoth task. More than 1,000 centuries-old oaks would have to be felled to build the nave and the choir, with another 800 for Notre-Dame’s spire alone. Each beam would be shaped by hand axe into its necessary rectangular form. “I was worried that I was being very selfish, but my wife was very supportive,” he admitted.

“It was better than a dream,” Gusakov remembered.

Will Gusakov at the workshop in Normandy. © Courtesy of Will Gusakov.

A dream that required a lot of hard work, he later admitted. For the last three months of his time at the Desmonts atelier, Gusakov was the shop lead for figuring out the principal trusses. “They are the roof triangles that hold up the roof and the principal ones really carry the loads. In the nave roof there is 11 of them and they are very cool. For a timber framer, they are very sexy,” he laughed.

“But the rebuild was incredibly complex because we were basically making a replica of the frame as it has been down to every single individual piece, of which there were hundreds slightly different than the next,” Gusakov explained. “We were reproducing all the idiosyncrasies.”

The final result stands as proof that these centuries-old techniques and manual tools have stood the test of time. But also that these methods are still efficient.

“How many kids staring at their iPads are even aware that they can grow up to be a stonecutter, a traditional carpenter, a mason?” Gusakov’s colleague Hank Silver told the New York Times in an interview.

Though he will not be attending the opening ceremony, Gusakov hopes to travel to France in March with his family to visit friends and see his work.

“There will be a kind of reconnection there,” he said of the trip. “I feel excited and proud that the building will be open to the public again.”
Stefan Lücking, the German glass painter

One of the treasures of the Notre-Dame cathedral was its stained-glass windows, which escaped significant damage. However, the fire blackened many of the windows, which required them to be dismantled and restored to their former glory. That is where Stefan Lücking stepped in.

He remembers watching TV at home with his family when news of the Notre-Dame fire came on. “My daughter said, ‘Oh, maybe you could work on fixing the windows?’” he recalled, laughing at the precision of her prophecy.

“I didn’t believe it at the time, but one or two years later, we got a call [asking if he could] work on Notre-Dame,” Lücking smiled.

Four stained-glass windows from the burnt landmark were shipped to Germany, two of which landed in the hands of Lücking and his partner Stephan Lübbers, both professional glass painters. Based in Borchen, the craftsmen spent between the summer of 2022 and September of 2024 restoring two 72-metre squared windows. They spent endless hours clearing off the charred glass and putting together the pieces that had been broken from the dismantlement.

From left to right: glass painters Stephan Lübbers, Felix Busse, Elodie Schneider, Stefan Lücking and Sascha Aretz stand atop Notre-Dame. © Courtesy of Stefan Lücking

“The windows were in a better condition than we thought they would be,” he said. But it was a lot of work. “We had to use silicone glue to put back the broken pieces that were all different shapes and sizes, between three and twenty centimetres.”

Along with two other glass workers from Cologne, Lücking and his partner travelled to Paris to install the window frames in January 2023. A few months later, they went back to install the windows and then again in September 2024 to remove the protection in front of the windows.

“It was very impressive to see the cathedral from those angles, to have those views, and to see everyone working. I think there were around 400 or 500 people at the cathedral [when we visited],” he recalled.

“It was overwhelming,” Lücking admitted, aware of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. “We were sure we would never see the cathedral like that again.”

He hopes to visit the cathedral when the crowds of tourists quell over time, perhaps in the summer of 2025.

The grand reopening is expected to bring 14 to 15 million visitors to Notre-Dame annually, surpassing the 12 million who visited in 2017.

Back to Iraqi Kurdistan with Christians of the East

12:17 REPORTERS © FRANCE 24

Issued on: 06/12/2024 -

Iraq, which has witnessed wars, embargoes and Islamic State rule, is a traumatised country with Eastern Christians among the first victims. Under Saddam Hussein, there were one and a half million of them in the country, but today only 150,000 remain. Many Chaldean Catholics in exil dream of returning. We meet members of the diaspora who have chosen to rebuild their lives in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Twenty years after the Gulf War and his forced departure from Iraq, Dilan Adamat, who fled with his family to Nantes in western France, has chosen to return. This Chaldean Catholic has left his job in a law firm to join a radio station in Ankawa, a suburb of Erbil in Kurdish-majority Iraqi Kurdistan. The radio station was founded by so-called “returnees”: members of the Christian diaspora who have also chosen to return home.

In this tormented Middle East, Erbil is a haven of peace. The official capital of Iraqi Kurdistan has become a small emirate, thanks to oil money and protection from the US army. Although not a land of rights, Iraqi Kurdistan remains a welcoming land for this Christian community.

Dilan on Radio Babylone, founded by Chaldean Catholics settled in Kurdistan. © Sébastien Daycard-Heid, FRANCE 24

The Chaldean Catholics speak a modern version of Aramaic. They are the descendants of the Assyrian civilisation that covered the whole of Mesopotamia. Members of this diaspora, exiled abroad in France, Sweden, Germany, North America and Australia, still dream of returning home.

With “Le retour” or “The Return”, the NGO he founded, Dilan has set himself a mission: to bring back other members of his community. This report tells the story of this return movement, which offers a glimmer of hope for Christians in the East.

Kurds' dream of self-rule under threat as Turkish-backed forces sweep across Syria

Analysis

Islamist rebels and armed groups backed by Ankara swept across Syria this past week, seizing Aleppo and putting President Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers to flight. Having achieved a hard-won autonomy in the turmoil of the Syrian Civil War, the country’s Kurds now find themselves once again cornered between the Damascus regime, Islamist insurgents and Turkish-backed troops eager to put an end to Kurdish self-rule.


Issued on: 05/12/2024 
By: Paul MILLAR

A Syrian Kurdish woman, fleeing from north of Aleppo, stands leaning on a bullet-riddled wall upon arriving in Tabqa, on the western outskirts of Raqa, on December 4, 2024. © Delil Souleiman, AFP


As Israel and Hezbollah settled into an uneasy ceasefire last week, armed Islamist opposition forces stormed out of Syria’s northwest, seizing the nation’s second city Aleppo over the weekend before advancing south on the road to Damascus.

While the forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – an offshoot of al Qaeda’s former Syria branch Jabhat al-Nusra – surged inwards from Idlib, another assault came pouring down from the northern borderlands with Turkey. These groups – backed by Ankara and calling themselves the Syrian National Army – began to seize territory northeast of Aleppo, including the town of Tal Rifaat and surrounding villages on December 1.

But Tal Rifaat was not being held by Assad’s loyalists. Instead, the Syrian National Army has once again set its sights on territory held by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the iron core of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a key Western ally in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group.

The fighting has been fierce. Already, tens of thousands of Kurds have begun the long winter march east across the Euphrates River, where the Kurdish-led SDF still holds sway. In Aleppo, where SDF troops have held the Kurdish neighbourhoods of Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud throughout the civil war, the triumphant HTS negotiated the Kurdish troops' withdrawal from the city, weapons still in hand. Hours after Aleppo fell, footage emerged of convoys of Kurdish fighters filing out of the city under the watchful gaze of HTS troops.

Worse may await them beyond the city limits. Having seized a hard-won autonomy in the early days of the Syrian Civil War, the country’s Kurds have for the past few years come under heavy assault by Turkey and the Syrian armed groups that it backs. Ankara views the autonomous Kurdish regions in Syria as a creation and extension of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), a group that has for years fought for Kurdish self-rule and is banned in Turkey as a terrorist organisation.

Now, with Assad's global allies exhausted by wars of attrition in Ukraine and Lebanon, Ankara seems once again set on strangling the Kurdish dream of self-governance in the crib.

Surrender or die

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said that the militants' lightning assault could cost the Kurds dearly.

“The Kurds stand to lose the most,” he said. “Their very autonomy, the security of their communities. I think Turkey has been biding its time and waiting for the right moment to strike, and the pro-Turkish opposition forces have really launched a shock attack, not only against the Assad government, but even against the Kurds. In Aleppo, the Kurds were told either to surrender or to die – and they decided to surrender.”

While HTS appears to be trying to avoid direct clashes with Kurdish forces, Kurdish civilians now living under the banners of the SNA have reported having their homes seized by Turkish-backed troops. As many as half a million Kurds are believed to live in Aleppo and surrounding towns and villages west of the Euphrates. Just what their lives are likely to be like under the new dispensation remains a question that few are keen to learn the answer to.

Dara Salam, a teaching fellow at SOAS University of London's department of politics and international studies, said that Kurdish communities in Syria's northwest were now once again at the mercy of Ankara's ambitions.

“The sole aim of Turkey-backed SNA is to implement Turkey's Syria policy, that is, destroying the Kurdish entity and having the upper hand over Assad's regime in Syria,” he said. “As the conflict in the past days unravels, Kurds once again face displacement, massacres and persecution at the hands of these jihadi-Islamist groups in many places like Aleppo, Tal Rifaat and Shahba.”

For years now, that policy has been put into increasingly bloody practice. In 2018, Turkish air strikes heralded the seizure of Afrin, the western-most canton of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria – more commonly known as Rojava. The occupying SNA has been accused of leading campaigns of mass violence against the Kurdish civilian population.

Dastan Jasim, a research fellow at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies, said Syria's Kurds had good reason to be fearful given what she described as years of abuses against Kurdish communities in parts of the country's northwest held by the SNA and Islamist opposition groups.

"The only basis on which Kurds can judge that question is their own experience," she said. "We’re heading towards six years of occupation of Afrin, for example, and Kurdish life in Afrin is a living hell – it’s basically impossible. Sexual violence is rampant, there have been kidnappings of people – just ordinary Kurdish people that are accused out of the blue of being PKK sympathisers are being abducted and killed."
‘In the eye of the storm’

Jasim said that the country's Kurdish communities had long struggled to find a place within the broader array of opposition forces that rose up against Assad more than a decade ago.

“In 2011 when the opposition came up, let’s remember that especially in Aleppo the Kurdish neighbourhoods were very active when it was about protesting against Assad,” she said. “People were obviously not happy with the situation – there have been many Kurdish uprisings that were attacked very violently. But at the same time, the Kurds saw there was no space for them, there was no space for a discussion of Kurdish autonomy, Kurdish self-rule. A lot of the elements are very nationalist, and that’s what we’re seeing right now.”


42:45

Having proved themselves to be a fierce and disciplined force against the emerging Islamic State group, the Kurds soon found themselves leading the US-backed SDF. Despite frictions between Washington and Ankara over US support for what Turkey considered to be violent separatist groups, the SDF played a crucial role in reclaiming territory from the Islamic State group.

Since then, though, the Kurds have been increasingly isolated. In 2019, then US president Donald Trump announced his plans to pull the last remaining American troops from Syria, leaving the Kurds undefended in the face of Turkey's advance.

Although Trump's generals managed to convince the president to keep a contingent of troops in the region to secure oil fields, guard against Islamic State group remnants and maintain pressure on Iran, it was a bitter blow for a community already under assault by a US ally and NATO member. Now, with Israel hammering Iran-backed groups across Syria and Trump set to return to the White House in January, Gerges said that forces across the Middle East were anxious to strengthen their hands before inauguration day.

“This is just the beginning – I think what Turkey and its Syrian allies are trying to do is to really basically change the current balance of power on the Turkish-Syrian borders before Trump enters the White House,” he said. “They’re using the retreat of the Assad forces as a means to weaken and degrade the pro-American Kurdish forces. All in all it’s not just that the Assad government is losing territories, but I think the Kurds are also in the eye of the storm. And I think by the end of the current round, their areas will shrink, their power will be degraded and they will be facing bitter choices.”

Gerges said that the next days and weeks of fighting could determine the very survival of the Kurds' long-held dream of self-governance.

“This is what’s going on in the Kurds’ minds – that’s why they called a general mobilisation,” he said. “This is one of the few times that they’re facing in their view a threat of this dimension. It’s no longer really a military threat, it goes to the very heart of what they’ve been trying to achieve since 2011 – full autonomy and a pathway to statehood.”

Syria rebel leader says goal is to overthrow Assad

By AFP
December 6, 2024

A Syrian rebel fighter cheers as he enters the central city of Hama 

- Copyright AFP Bakr ALKASEM

Layal Abou Rahal

Rebel forces pressing a lightning offensive in Syria aim to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s rule, their Islamist leader said in an interview published on Friday.

The Islamist-led rebels were at the gates of Syria’s Homs, a war monitor said, after wresting other key cities from government control.

In little over a week, the offensive has seen Syria’s second city Aleppo and strategically located Hama fall from President Bashar al-Assad’s control for the first time since the civil war began in 2011.

Should the rebels capture Homs, that would cut the seat of power in the capital Damascus from the Mediterranean coast, a key bastion of the Assad clan.

By Friday morning, the rebels were just five kilometres (three miles) from the edge of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel alliance, said the goal of the offensive was to overthrow Assad’s rule.

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” Jolani told CNN in an interview.

The rebel alliance conducting the offensive that began on November 27 is led by HTS, which is rooted in the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda but has sought to moderate its image in recent years.

Fearing the rebels’ advance, tens of thousands of members of Assad’s Alawite minority were fleeing Homs on Thursday, residents and the Observatory said.

Khaled, who lives on the city’s outskirts, told AFP that “the road leading to (coastal) Tartus province was glowing… due to the lights of hundreds of cars on their way out”.

Homs was the scene of a months-long government siege of opposition areas and deadly sectarian attacks in the early years of the civil war.

Early in the war, which began with Assad’s brutal crackdown on democracy protests, activists referred to the city as “the capital of the revolution” against the government.

– ‘Extremely afraid’ –

Haidar, 37, who lives in an Alawite-majority neighbourhood, told AFP by telephone that “fear is the umbrella that covers Homs now”.

“I’ve never seen this scene in my life. We are extremely afraid, we don’t know what is happening.”

After the government lost control of Aleppo and Hama, air strikes targeted a bridge on the highway linking Hama and Homs, the Observatory said.

But on Friday, the rebel alliance “entered the cities of Rastan and Talbisseh” on the main road between Hama and Homs, the monitor added, saying that the factions were faced with “a total absence” of government forces.

The Syrian defence ministry said the army launched strikes against “terrorist” fighters in Hama province.

The Observatory, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed since the offensive began last week.

The United Nations said that the violence has displaced 280,000 people, warning that numbers could swell to 1.5 million.

Many of the scenes witnessed in recent days would have been unimaginable earlier in the war.

The rebels announced on Telegram their capture of Hama following street battles with government forces, describing it as “the complete liberation of the city”.

Rebel fighters kissed the ground and let off volleys of celebratory gunfire as they entered the city on Thursday.

Many residents turned out to welcome the rebel fighters. An AFP photographer saw some residents set fire to a giant poster of Assad on the facade of city hall.

The army admitted losing control of the city, though Defence Minister Ali Abbas insisted that the army’s withdrawal was a “temporary tactical measure”.

– ‘Massive blow’ –

In a video posted online, HTS leader Jolani said his fighters had entered Hama to “cleanse the wound that has endured in Syria for 40 years”.

He was referring to an army massacre in Hama in the 1980s that targeted people accused of belonging to the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

In another message on Telegram congratulating “the people of Hama on their victory,” he used his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, instead of his nom de guerre for the first time.

Aron Lund, a fellow of the Century International think tank, called the loss of Hama “a massive, massive blow to the Syrian government”.

Should Assad lose Homs, it wouldn’t mean the end of his rule, Lund said.

“But at that point, without Aleppo, Hama or Homs, and with no secure route from Damascus to the coast, I’d say it’s over as a credible state entity,” he added.

UN chief Antonio Guterres said Thursday that the escalation in Syria is the result of a “chronic collective failure” of diplomacy.

The rebels launched their offensive in northern Syria the same day a ceasefire took effect in the war between Israel and Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Both Hezbollah and Russia have been crucial backers of Assad’s government, but have been mired in their own conflicts in recent years.

Israel’s army said Friday it had conducted air strikes on Hezbollah “weapon-smuggling routes” on the Syria-Lebanon border, just over a week into the fragile ceasefire in their war.

Damascus gripped by anxiety in face of rebel offensive


By AFP
December 6, 2024

Syrians chat at a cafe in the historic Old City of Damascus. 

- Copyright AFP Eitan ABRAMOVICH

Like many others in the Syrian capital Damascus, student Shadi chose to stay home so he could keep up with the pace of events since rebels launched a shock offensive last week.

“I had no wish to go out and everyone chose to stay in to follow the news surrounded by their loved ones,” said Shadi, who did not wish to give his full name.

As the rebels have taken city after city in quick succession, many Syrians have been wracked by uncertainty, fearing a revival of the worst days of Syria’s grinding civil war now in its 14th year.

“We don’t understand anything anymore. In just one week, the twists and turns have been so overwhelming that they are beyond all comprehension,” the young man said.

“The worry is contagious but we have to keep our cool,” he said, never once taking his eyes off the alerts on his mobile phone.

Syrian rebels, led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched the shock offensive on November 27, sweeping from their stronghold in the northwest to capture swathes of northern and central Syria including the major cities of Aleppo and Hama.

Government forces have launched a counteroffensive seeking to repel the rebels but at the cost of relaxing their grip on other parts of the country, notably the east where Kurdish-led forces have taken over.

“Whenever rumours spread, people rush to buy various products, bread, rice, sugar and detergents,” said Amine, 56, who runs a grocery store in the Sheikh Saad neighbourhood of the capital.

“Today, I bought twice from my wholesaler to keep up with demand.”



– Exams delayed –



The offensive has already sent food prices skyrocketing by 30 percent in Damascus, according to residents.

The Syrian pound is trading at an all-time low of 19,000 to the dollar, down from 15,000 before the rebels launched their offensive on Wednesday of last week.

Security measures — already strict before the offensive — have been beefed up, with extra car searches, particularly on vehicles coming from outside the capital, according to residents.

Concerns have been further driven by the spread of disinformation and rumours.

The Syrian defence ministry has denounced “fabricated” videos, including of explosions at the headquarters of the general staff, calling on citizens not to fall prey to “lies” that “aim to sow chaos and panic among civilians”.

In the usually lively neighbourhood of Bab Sharqi, restaurants and cafes are near-deserted in the evening, with some even closing up early due to the absence of customers.

Damascus University has delayed end-of-term exams and the Syrian football federation has postponed matches until further notice.

State news agency SANA reported that at Friday prayers, imams called on the faithful “not to panic… and to stand as one behind the Syrian Arab Army to defend the homeland”.

Georgina, 32, said she had “heard a lot of rumours”.

“I went to Old Damascus and saw a normal situation,” she said, adding that nonetheless “everyone was keeping an eye on the news”.

Meanwhile, some radio stations have switched from variety programming to non-stop news segments.

On state television, programmes host analysts and witnesses on the ground, including those denying “rumours” of fresh territorial losses to the advancing rebels.

HTS rebel group sweeping Syria tries to shed its jihadist image

Analysis

Unexpected alliances, seeing strength in "diversity" – Syria's Islamist insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former branch of al Qaeda, is trying to soften its public image in a bid to become one of Syria’s key political players. After seizing Aleppo in a lightning offensive, the armed group on Thursday broke Damascus’s hold on the crucial city of Hama.


Issued on: 05/12/2024 - 
By: Bahar MAKOOI

Abu Mohamed al-Golani, head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist insurgent group led by Al-Qaeda's former Syria branch, poses for a selfie during a press conference near the Bab al Hawa border crossing in northern Syria, March 12, 2024.

 © Omar Haj Kadour, AFP


They took Aleppo in less than three days. Now, the city of Hama, a crucial point on the road to Damascus – and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad – has also fallen. Who are the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the driving force behind a lightning offensive that has caught the Syrian regime so utterly off guard?

The "Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant", more commonly known by its initials HTS, was the Syrian branch of al Qaeda before disassociating itself in 2016. The group owes much to its strategically minded leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani. This Syrian fighter, a former member of the Islamic State in Iraq – which later expanded into the Islamic State group – founded al-Nusra Front in 2012 before pledging allegiance to al Qaeda in 2013. The two groups reportedly severed ties by mutual agreement three years later.

An image grab taken from a video broadcast on July 28, 2016 by Dubai-based Orient News satellite television shows the head of Al-Nusra Front in Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, giving a speech from an undisclosed location, in the first-ever video showing his face to be released. © AFP, HO

In January 2017, the former Nusra Front began trying to remake its image, declaring it had undergone an ideological transformation and adopting a new name – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The group also began to rid itself of some of its most radical figures – willingly or not.

‘A rigid, conservative Islamist group’

In the beginning of 2019, HTS fighters took control of most of Idlib province in Syria’s northwest – to the detriment of other rebel groups active in the area. In a 2023 interview with FRANCE 24’s Wassim Nasr in Idlib, the group’s leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani said that he was working to ensure that the areas under his control would not be used as rear bases for preparing attacks against the West.

Abu Maria al-Qahtani, one of the group’s leading figures also interviewed in Idlib, said that the group was doing “all [that they could] to stop the youngest men from joining al-Qaeda or IS by showing them that another path was possible with what had been put in place in Idlib”.

"Not only has the HTS group broken ties with al Qaeda, but it’s been fighting al Qaeda and Islamic State group on an equal footing for years,” Nasr said, describing HTS as a “rigid, conservative Islamist group”.

“It was even their fighters that killed the Islamic State group’s fourth caliph [Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi] in August 2023,” he said.

Watch more  Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce

Speaking on FRANCE 24, Arthur Quesnay, PhD candidate in political science at Paris’s Pantheon-Sorbonne University, said that HTS – now almost entirely made up of Syrian fighters – had become “a revolutionary Syrian group that is fighting a war in Syria and has stopped trying to wage a global jihad and strike at overseas targets, but is just here to take Damascus”.

According to Nasr, al-Golani maintains that he has put global jihad and international terror behind him, believing “that these things ‘bring nothing but destruction and failure’”. For the Islamist leader, his group “has no problem with the West, his problem is with the Syrian regime as well as the Iranians and Russians that support it”.

HTS and its leader are still designated as terrorist organisations by the United Nations, the US and a number of European countries – a fact that has put something of a crimp in al-Golani’s political ambitions.

“One of his objectives is to be taken off the international list of terrorist organisations so he can travel and become a leading Syrian political player,” Quesnay said.
The new normal

The rebel leader has not been idle. Al-Golani set up the so-called Salvation Government in Idlib, a local administration that serves as a kind of laboratory for what his rule could bring if extended over the whole country.

Nasr, who visited Idlib in 2023, said he had witnessed a limited freedom of religion, with Christian masses tolerated but no displays of crosses or ringing of church-bells allowed. He also described a policy of returning land occupied by foreign jihadists to their Syrian owners, even if they were Christians or Druze.

Ever pragmatic, al-Golani tried to win the support of those living in the territories his group had conquered, Quesnay said.

“In Idlib, the population is mostly Sufi – a popular and more classic form of Syrian Islam,” he said. “We’ve seen HTS evolve little by little, abandoning its original Salafist line to better adapt itself to those it was supposed to be governing. Other experts have noted that minorities such as the Druze and the Kurds also enjoyed some protection.



11:54© FRANCE 24

“It’s the first time that a group with jihadist roots – that is to say radical Islam – has shown itself to be open to other forms of Islam or other religions,” Quesnay said. “Certainly there has been localised repression against activists, but there have also been regular demonstrations against HTS, and in those cases, al-Golani engaged in the kinds of negotiations that we have usually seen elsewhere.”

“We need to be cautious in how we look at it, but it’s what they’ve been doing in Idlib for five years,” Nasr said. “HTS is far from espousing democratic values or those of a liberal society, but they have taken something of a turn – or found an unexpected third way.”
Charm offensive

Applying the same strategy after the conquest of Aleppo, al-Golani tried to reassure the population of his group’s goodwill – in particular towards the city’s religious and ethnic minorities. In a publicised statement, he called on his fighters not to mistreat the Christian community in Syria’s second city. “Treat them well,” he said, going on to tell local believers that HTS “had treated the Christians of Idlib and Aleppo well – you have nothing to fear”.

Speaking to the city’s large Kurdish minority, HTS offered a message of unity that would have been unimaginable just a few short years ago.


“You have the right to live freely … Diversity is a strength of which we are proud,” the group said in a statement verified by Nasr. “We denounce the actions of the Islamic State group against the Kurds, including the enslavement of women … We are with the Kurds to build the Syria of tomorrow.”

The Islamist rebel group also offered Kurdish fighters the possibility to leave the city with their families.

“They’re working on a corridor to evacuate those who now find themselves in [HTS] territory towards the Kurdish bastions in the northeast, and in good agreement with the YPG – the main Kurdish militia in Syria – which is not necessarily to Turkey’s liking,” Nasr said.

The apparent agreement with the Kurds could irritate the other rebel groups that took part in the seizure of Aleppo. Although HTS may have been the driving force behind the shock assault this past week, it’s not the only one that has been fighting to claim territory.

Partners of convenience

As Aleppo fell, HTS was supported on the northern front by the Syrian National Army (SNA) a coalition of a dozen rebel groups largely financed, equipped and trained by Turkey. Based across a long stretch of the Turkish border, these groups are united by a fierce anti-Kurdish sentiment.

“Ankara was surprised by HTS’s lightning offensive against Aleppo,” Nasr said. Faced with the new facts on the ground, Turkey launched the SNA into the fray “to cut any possible link between the Kurdish bastions of Syria’s northeast and those remaining in Aleppo”, as well as to prevent al-Golani from setting himself up as the sole master of the rebel-held area.

Although HTS and these Turkish-backed armed groups are often referred to as allies, Nasr said, they should more accurately be seen as being in a “balance of power that we can’t call friendly relations”. It’s a relationship marked by much friction – particularly on the Kurdish question.

Al-Golani has not been shy about publicly criticising the SNA’s armed groups – over the reported looting of a factory in Aleppo on December 3, for example.

For Ankara, returning the 3 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey to their homeland is the main priority. A larger and more secure area under rebel control would certainly be a welcome step towards this goal. But it remains to be seen just how much Turkey is prepared to tolerate the fragile entente struck between HTS and the Kurds, who Ankara continues to see as its sworn enemies.

This piece has been adapted from the original in French by Paul Millar.

As Syrian rebels advance, what can Iran and its tired allies do for Assad?

Firas Makdesi/Reuters
People walk near a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after last week's rebel seizure of Aleppo marked the rebels' biggest offensive for years, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 5, 2024.


By Scott Peterson Staff writer
@peterson__scott

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
Dec. 05, 2024|LONDON


Iran and its alliance of regional militias are seeking once again to defend the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Sunni Islamist rebels make swift territorial gains in a surprise offensive.

But the array of forces, supported by Russian air power, that prevailed over anti-Assad insurgents and preserved his rule a decade ago during the first phase of Syria’s devastating civil war, is weaker today, and not focused on Syria.

Iran and its regional “Axis of Resistance” fighters, chief among them Lebanese Hezbollah, are all degraded and distracted after more than a year of war with Israel.

Why We Wrote This story focused on  Resilience

What can Iran do to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat newly energized rebel forces? Its anti-Israel “Axis of Resistance” has been overworked and diminished. Yet even as Iran searches for solutions, there are some suggestions that it is not panicking.

Syrian government troops melted away in the face of the offensive launched last week from the rebel-held northwest province of Idlib. Within days, Islamist groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was once affiliated with Al Qaeda, had captured Syria’s second city of Aleppo.

By Thursday, rebels had taken control of Hama, 80 miles to the south. HTS, designated a terrorist group by the United States, sent messages to Syrian minority groups to reassure them of freedom and protection, prompting Aleppo Christians to put up Christmas decorations.

Nevertheless, there has been consternation but not panic in Iran about the investment of billions of dollars over many years, both to defend Mr. Assad and to create the Axis, which aims to counter Israeli and American influence in the Mideast.

Ghaith Alsayed/AP
Syrian opposition fighters stand atop a seized tank on the outskirts of Hama, Syria, Dec. 3, 2024.

Iran-backed Shiite militias from Iraq reportedly have sent hundreds of fighters to Syria, to help defend an Axis ally that serves as a critical weapons route between Iran and Lebanon. Hezbollah is also trying to mobilize for Syria, but its leadership has been decimated and its units degraded by 14 months of escalating conflict with Israel.

That fight culminated in a ceasefire coming into effect Nov. 27 – the day the Syrian rebels launched their offensive.

“This whole thing is coming at the worst moment for Iran and the Axis, and I think also explains the timing on the side of the rebels,” to take advantage of the relative weakness of Mr. Assad’s allies, says Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s role in Syria at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“Compared to a decade ago, Iran has fewer resources to invest in the Axis. ... So I can see why they are quite concerned,” he says.

Two pivotal events have changed the safety net dynamic for Mr. Assad and for Iran, Mr. Azizi says. The first was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which diverted Moscow’s focus and prompted it to withdraw some troops and hand over some bases to the Syrian army even as it kept an air capability in the country.

The second was the October 2023 attack by Axis-member Hamas on Israel. That triggered Hezbollah’s first rocket strikes on Israel in solidarity, as well as attacks from Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen, ostensibly to stop Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.

“Obviously everybody in the Axis started to get distracted, and focused on the Gaza front, especially those actors whose presence was significant in the Syrian war,” Mr. Azizi says.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei complained on X this week that the Sunni extremists were "good news for enemies" of Islam by drawing the world’s attention away from the “issue of Palestine.”

“The current moment [in Syria] shows how significant the Iranian and Iran-backed manpower was, because they were able to prevent further advances by the rebels. But when there is nobody on the ground over those areas, they [the rebels] come again,” says Mr. Azizi. “That’s the problem: Airpower alone can’t secure victory.”

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP/File
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran, Iran, May 30, 2024.

To be sure, Israel has used airstrikes to kill several senior Iranian commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Qods Force, who were responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon.

“What is Iran capable of doing, and not capable of doing? Clearly its command structure in Syria is damaged,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the London-based news website Amwaj.media, which focuses on Iran, Iraq, and Arabian Peninsula countries.

Those networks, steeped in long-standing personal relationships, will take time to reestablish. But Iran can afford its military work in Syria, he says, and does not have an overall manpower problem, considering its past advisory role and the deployment of relatively few of its own troops.

“These are personal relationships that are hard to reconstitute,” says Mr. Shabani, noting for example Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike in April on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus.

General Zahedi was in charge of all the Levant and of funneling weapons to Lebanon and Syria. He was reportedly the only non-Lebanese person to sit on Hezbollah’s top Shura Council, while also exercising “veto power” over its subordinate military Jihad Council. His death triggered an unprecedented direct Iranian retaliation against Israel, with 300 missiles and drones.

Hassan Ammar/AP
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks via a video link during a ceremony to commemorate the death of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was among those killed by an Israeli airstrike that demolished an Iranian consular building in Damascus, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, April 8, 2024.

“Many other, if not all, members of the Jihad Council are [also] dead. So they are all in a state of reconstituting these structures,” says Mr. Shabani, whose website first reported the significance of General Zahedi.

Nevertheless, Mr. Shabani explains why, practically and politically, Iran may not be more urgently coming to Mr. Assad’s aid.

“Do I believe [pro-Assad forces] can seize back all of Syria? No. They couldn’t even do that last year, or last month,” he says. “But is it enough to keep Assad in power? Pick up a map, and look at what Iran’s objectives are in Syria.”

Those objectives include ensuring cross-country routes for Iranian weapons to reach Lebanon and key destinations in Syria, including Damascus, areas close to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Qusayr, where Hezbollah had a significant victory in 2012.

“[Rebels] have taken Aleppo. It’s a loss, for sure. But is this integral to Assad maintaining power? No. Is it integral to Iran’s core interests in Syria? No,” says Mr. Shabani. “I don’t see Iran rushing to Assad’s aid. Not because they don’t want to keep him in power … but because they want him to better appreciate their role.”

Four days after the rebel offensive erupted, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Damascus to reassure Mr. Assad. According to news reports, the two detailed the support that needs to be provided for Syria.

In a show of calm, Mr. Araghchi was later filmed eating at a fast-food restaurant in Damascus. But in a diplomatic push, he then flew to Ankara to meet his counterpart from Turkey, which has backed factions of the Syrian opposition.

Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Oct. 24, 2024.

Iranian media reported Monday that Iranian Qods Force Gen. Javad Ghaffari arrived in Damascus to lead Iranian “military advisers” and help the Syrian army battle the advancing rebels. He has often been lauded in Iran for safeguarding Aleppo in 2016, but earned the title “Butcher of Aleppo” by opponents of Iran who recall brutal tactics there.

In Parliament Dec. 1, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian called on Muslim nations to “intervene and not allow America and Israel to take advantage” in Syria. Yet when asked on state television the next day about the chances of a direct Iranian military engagement in Syria, Mr. Pezeshkian twice dodged the question, and noted instead his government’s diplomatic efforts.

It is not yet clear if several hundred Iran-backed fighters from Iraq have made it to Syria, as reported, or if orders to fight have been given to those members of the Axis already on the ground in Syria, who are mostly Shiite Afghans.

As rebels advanced Thursday, the HTS commander, Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, issued a request to Iraqi politicians to “do their duty” to prevent Iran-aligned militias from intervening “in what is happening in Syria.”

EU and Mercosur trade bloc finalise free trade deal opposed by France


The European Union and South America's Mercosur trade bloc said Friday they had finalised a free trade agreement that has been decades in the making. But the deal faces a tortuous battle for approval in Europe given opposition from France and other member states.


Issued on: 06/12/2024 -
By: NEWS WIRES
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen (centre) pictured with the leaders of Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Paraguay at a summit in Montevideo on December 6, 2024. © Eitan Abramovich, AFP


The European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc have agreed to terms for a long-anticipated free trade deal, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in Montevideo on Friday.

The EU-Mercosur deal aims to create one of the largest free trade zones in the world, covering over 700 million people and nearly 25% of global GDP.

Much like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, its goal is to reduce tariffs and trade barriers, making it easier for businesses on both sides to export goods.

Mercosur comprises Brazil — the lion’s share of the bloc’s territory, economic output and population — along with Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia, the newest member. Venezuela’s membership has been suspended indefinitely.


The deal is not the end of the story for the Europeans. France leads a group of member countries who still have objections to the pact, and all 27 member countries must endorse it for the agreement to enter force.

In remarks aimed at her “fellow Europeans,” and perhaps those more skeptical like farmers in France and elsewhere, von der Leyen said it would have a positive impact on around 60,000 companies that export to the Mercosur region.

She said they will “benefit from reduced tariffs, simpler customs procedures and preferential access to some critical raw materials. This will create huge business opportunities.”

“And to our farmers,” she said, “we have heard you listen to your concerns, and we are acting on them. This agreement includes robust safeguards to protect your livelihoods.

(AP)