It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Carbon-14 diamond battery is world first, say UK scientists
Tuesday, 10 December 2024
Scientists at the UK Atomic Energy Authority and Bristol University have created what they say is the world's first carbon-14 diamond battery, which has the potential to power devices for thousands of years.
The thin battery on the left, should last for more than 5000 years (Image: UKAEA)
The battery is based on the radioactive isotope carbon-14. It uses its radioactive decay - it has a half-life of 5,700 years - to generate low levels of power. According to the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) "it functions similarly to solar panels, which convert light into electricity, but instead of using light particles (photons), they capture fast-moving electrons from within the diamond structure".
Sarah Clark, Director of Tritium Fuel Cycle at UKAEA, said: "Diamond batteries offer a safe, sustainable way to provide continuous microwatt levels of power. They are an emerging technology that use a manufactured diamond to safely encase small amounts of carbon-14."
The team from the two organisations worked on the project at the UKAEA's Culham campus, with the development seen as a spin-off from the work which has been taking place on fusion energy there.
Potential applications for the batteries include use in hostile environments where it is not possible to replace batteries - such as to power a radio frequency tag in space over a period of many decades. Other uses could be in medical pacemakers and in future in everyday electronic devices or watches.
Tom Scott, Professor in Materials at the University of Bristol, said: "Our micropower technology can support a whole range of important applications from space technologies and security devices through to medical implants. We’re excited to be able to explore all of these possibilities, working with partners in industry and research, over the next few years. We want to use this technology for advancing the human race.
"The decade ahead is about upscaling production and improving power performance. This is really exciting at this point. This is where we think people are going to say 'this is absolutely game-changing."
Canada considers financing for Polish nuclear power plant
Tuesday, 10 December 2024
Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe announced it has received a letter of intent from Export Development Canada, for up to CAD2.02 billion (USD1.45 billion) to potentially support Poland's first nuclear power plant project.
How the plant in Pomerania could look (Image: PEJ)
The letter of intent with Export Development Canada (EDC) - a Canadian Crown corporation - is in support of the sale of goods and services by Canadian suppliers. EDC support is subject to the successful completion of its detailed due diligence process and credit approval.
Westinghouse - jointly owned by Canadian firms Brookfield and Cameco - welcomed the signing of the letter of intent, which it said it helped facilitate.
"Not only does this financing agreement underscore the important role Canada will play in helping Europe secure and diversify its energy future, but it will also help prepare the nation's nuclear supply chain to support the next AP1000 plant in North America," said Westinghouse Energy Systems President Dan Lipman. "We appreciate the close cooperation of the EDC in helping Westinghouse make AP1000 projects a reality for its customers while bringing home economic benefits to Canada."
Westinghouse said the announcement demonstrates its "deep commitment to Canada's economy by securing work for Canadian firms and trade unions supporting Westinghouse's global fleet of advanced reactors". For each AP1000 unit that is built outside of Canada, Westinghouse says it could generate almost CAD1 billion in gross domestic product through local suppliers.
Last month, the US International Development Finance Corporation - the USA's development bank - signed a letter of interest with Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe (PEJ) to provide more than USD980 million in financing for Poland's first nuclear power plant. A similar declaration, for the equivalent of about PLN70 billion (USD17.3 billion), was made earlier by the US Export-Import Bank. Westinghouse and Bechtel jointly form a consortium that implements the PEJ investment project in Pomerania.
"We are pleased to see strong interest in our investment project from leading players in the global financial market, with whom we are in constant contact. The letter of intent from Export Development Canada is another confirmation of this fact, and at the same time our next step towards implementation of the strategy for obtaining financing for the entire project," said PEJ Vice President Piotr Piela.
PEJ said: "Cooperation with export credit agencies is an important part of the strategy for securing financing for the nuclear power plant in Pomerania – it involves continuing discussions with, among others, entities from countries with extensive nuclear supply chains, in order to maximise and optimise financing opportunities for this key investment project for Poland."
In November 2022, the then Polish government selected the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor technology for construction at the Lubiatowo-Kopalino site in the Choczewo municipality in Pomerania in northern Poland. An agreement setting a plan for the delivery of the plant was signed in May last year by Westinghouse, Bechtel and PEJ - a special-purpose vehicle 100% owned by Poland's State Treasury. The Ministry of Climate and Environment in July issued a decision-in-principle for PEJ to construct the plant. The aim is for Poland's first AP1000 reactor to enter commercial operation in 2033.
Under an engineering services signed in September last year, in cooperation with PEJ, Westinghouse and Bechtel will finalise a site-specific design for a plant featuring three AP1000 reactors. The design/engineering documentation includes the main components of the power plant: the nuclear island, the turbine island and the associated installations and auxiliary equipment, as well as administrative buildings and infrastructure related to the safety of the facility. The contract also involves supporting the investment process and bringing it in line with current legal regulations in cooperation with the National Atomic Energy Agency and the Office of Technical Inspection.
In September, the Polish government announced its intention to allocate PLN60 billion to fund the country's first nuclear power plant.
Has Nuclear Energy Finally Overcome the Chernobyl Disaster?
Accidents like Chornobyl and Fukushima have damaged the public perception of nuclear power, leading to decreased investment and development.
Nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source with a proven track record of safety and reliability.
Despite past challenges, there is a growing global interest in nuclear power as a key component of a sustainable energy future.
Three major nuclear events throughout the history of nuclear power production have tainted the image of the clean energy source, according to recent reports and years of public opinion polls. The events at Chornobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island swayed public opinion against nuclear power in many areas of the world for several decades, encouraging governments worldwide to move away from the clean energy source in favor of continued fossil fuel use. Today’s energy mix could look extremely different if these events had not occurred, or greater efforts had been taken to raise public awareness over nuclear safety.
According to a recent report published by a think tank from the ex-U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair – Tony Blair Institute (TBI), the nuclear power industry could have had a significant impact on global carbon emissions had it continued to grow at the same pace as before the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear disaster. It predicted that carbon emissions would be around 6 percent lower today if a different narrative of nuclear energy had been established following the Chornobyl disaster, rather than one that spurred “unfounded public concern”.
The Chornobyl nuclear power station was located in Pryp’yat, 10 miles northwest of the city of Chornobyl and 65 miles north of Kyiv. It consisted of four reactors, each with a 1 GW capacity. The disaster happened on April 25–26, 1986, when workers shut down the reactor’s power-regulating system and its emergency safety systems and withdrew most of the control rods from its core while it ran at 7 percent power. A combination of human errors led to several explosions triggering a large fireball that blew off the heavy steel and concrete lid of the reactor, which resulted in a partial meltdown of the core. This led large quantities of radioactive material to go into the atmosphere and spread for miles around.
Around 30,000 inhabitants were evacuated from Pryp’yat and a cover-up took place by the Soviet Union. However, Swedish monitoring stations reported abnormally high levels of wind-transported radioactivity, which led authorities to admit there had been an accident. The attempted cover-up and delayed information about the event led to an international outcry over the dangers of radioactive waste. The heat and the radioactivity leaking from the reactor core started to be contained in May, and the highly radioactive reactor core was later enclosed in a concrete-and-steel sarcophagus. Reports on the number of deaths associated with both the disaster and the lingering radioactivity in the region vary widely.
The TBI report found that over 400 reactors commenced operations in the three decades before Chornobyl, but fewer than 200 had been commissioned in the almost three decades since. The report stated, “The result is that nuclear energy has never become the ubiquitous power source many had projected, with countries instead turning towards alternatives such as coal and gas.” It suggests that two other major nuclear incidents – Fukushima and Three Mile Island – also harmed the public perception of nuclear power
Nevertheless, the TBI predicts the world will see a “new nuclear age” in the coming years, as environmentalists and governments worldwide double down on their commitment to nuclear power as part of a green energy transition. Nuclear energy has been providing abundant clean power to countries worldwide for around 70 years. Unlike most renewable energy sources, nuclear energy can be produced 24 hours a day, rain or shine, providing a stable flow of clean power to the grid. Some new-generation power plants are now capable of operating for up to 80 years, which is far longer than gas- or coal-fired power stations, as well as many renewable installations.
In addition, a multitude of studies over several decades show that fossil fuels are overwhelmingly more harmful to health and the environment than nuclear power. Experts think that air pollution from fossil fuels is responsible for around 7 million deaths a year, while nuclear energy carries a similar level of risk to wind power, which is around 350 times safer than coal. Per terawatt-hour of energy production, coal is thought to cause 24.6 deaths, oil 18.4 deaths, natural gas 2.8 deaths and nuclear energy 0.07 deaths.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says that nuclear power plants are among “the safest and most secure facilities in the world.” They must adhere to strict international safety standards and both training and best practices have become stricter and more internationally standardized in recent decades. Further, nuclear waste storage facilities are highly protected against earthquakes, tornadoes, and other potential disasters.
The lead author of the report Tone Langengen stated, “A new nuclear age is beginning. But whether it continues will depend entirely on whether leaders are willing to move past false alarm and ideology, making judgment based upon fact-based assessment of risk.”
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
NANO announces flurry of microreactor MoUs
Tuesday, 10 December 2024
Recent memorandums of understanding signed by microreactor developer NANO Nuclear Energy will see it work with the US Department of Energy on evaluating the feasibility of siting its experimental microreactors at the Idaho National Laboratory; with the Togolese government on the potential deployment of its microreactors in West Africa; and with a Canadian startup company on integrating its technology with an innovative farming technique.
Robert Koffi Messan Eklo, Minister of Mines and Energy Resources of the Togolese Republic (left) and NANO Nuclear's Ian Farnan signed the MoU to support the development and deployment of advanced nuclear technology and infrastructure in Togo (Image: NANO Nuclear Energy)
An MoU with US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office will see NANO Nuclear work with the department and operator of the national lab Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC to progress the development, siting, and eventual testing of the ZEUS and ODIN microreactors. The agreement outlines core activities, such as site evaluations, support of Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing activities, and the development of operational and security plans, including hazardous material management, with the parties collaborating to assess the suitability of INL's infrastructure and secure appropriate land-use agreements for supporting the experimental reactors.
The agreement, which will remain in place for five years with a renewal option, also includes provisions for regulatory coordination, communication strategies, and efforts to ensure environmental compliance under the National Environmental Policy Act.
"This partnership with DOE's Idaho Operations Office allows us to take multiple critical steps toward demonstrating the economic viability and real-world applications of NANO Nuclear's microreactor technology,” NANO Nuclear CEO and Head of Reactor Development James Walker said.
The ZEUS microreactor features a sealed, solid reactor core and a power conversion system that fit inside a single standard shipping container. ODIN is a low-pressure coolant reactor.
Togo agreement
Separately, the government of the Togolese Republic is to support NANO Nuclear's licensing and implementation efforts in the West African country under an MoU announced on 5 December. NANO Nuclear will be responsible for evaluating the specific regional needs for energy systems that can support remote mines, industries, data centres, towns, hospitals, and desalination plants throughout the country, without the need to connect to the national grid.
This is NANO Nuclear’s second such MoU in Africa, following an agreement with the Rwanda Atomic Energy Board (RAEB) signed in August. To help support a sustainable nuclear energy industry in Africa, NANO Nuclear said it will look to expand its collaboration with the RAEB and the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences' Next Einstein initiative to further expand the educational and vocational opportunities for young professionals throughout Africa. The company also said it plans to set up a training course for nuclear physicists and engineers in collaboration with Cambridge University and the Togo Ministry of Education.
Vertical farming
A non-binding MoU between NANO Nuclear and Vert2Grow Energy Solutions Inc - a start-up partnership between Food Security Structures Canada and Marina Point Capital Inc - will see the parties explore the integration of NANO Nuclear's portable microreactor technology Vert2Grow's innovative vertical farming solutions to deliver sustainable power and food production capabilities to remote communities.
The MoU seeks to address the challenges faced by remote and underserved areas, where access to reliable energy and food supply is limited, leveraging NANO Nuclear’s advanced reactor systems in development and FSSC’s proprietary controlled-environment agriculture technology, developing a comprehensive framework to deliver innovative solutions that NANO said "may eventuate in the execution of one or more definitive agreements".
FSSC is pioneering vertical farming systems that enable year-round, high-yield food production in challenging environments, by using advanced automation, energy-efficient lighting, and climate control technologies.
The collaboration's initial scope of work will include feasibility studies to evaluate the integration of microreactor and vertical farming technologies; identifying and shortlisting optimal locations for pilot projects, focusing on remote communities, disaster-prone areas, and industrial camps across sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, and Northern Canada; the design and launch of a potential pilot programme by 2027, integrating a prototype microreactor system with a demonstration vertical farm; and developing outreach programmes to train local personnel in operating and maintaining the integrated systems. The collaboration is targeting a deployment timeline beginning in the early 2030s.
"This collaboration embodies NANO Nuclear Energy’s vision to deliver not just power, but transformative solutions for communities that need them most," Walker said. "By combining our plans for clean, portable nuclear power with state-of-the-art vertical farming systems, we are seeking to address two of the most critical needs in remote regions: reliable energy and food security."
Agreements represent step forward for nuclear in Uzbekistan, says Uzatom
Tuesday, 10 December 2024
Strategic agreements signed by Uzbek interests during a conference held in Samarkand include cooperation agreements with international organisations, business interests and academia.
World Nuclear Association Director General Sama Bilbao y Leon (on the left) was a signatory of the agreement between the Association and Uzatom (Image: Uzatom)
Each of the documents represents an important step forward in establishing productive cooperation and sharing experience in the use of atomic energy, Uzbekistan's Uzatom atomic energy agency said.
The following documents were signed during the one-day Prospects for the Use of Nuclear Energy for Peaceful Purposes in Sustainable Development of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Member States conference on 5 December in Samarkand:
1. Additions to the Framework Country Program between the Atomic Energy Agency under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzatom) and the International Atomic Energy Agency; 2. Memorandum of Understanding between Uzatom and World Nuclear Association; 3. Memorandum of Cooperation between Nuclear Power Plant Construction Directorate and China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas; 4. Memorandum of Cooperation between the Uzatom and the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan; 5. Agreement between the Uzatom and Assystem Engineering & Operation Services; 6. Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation between the Branch of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "National Research Nuclear University MEPhI" in Tashkent and the Research Institute for the Development of Digital Technologies and Artificial Intelligence.
Uzbekistan is the world’s fifth-ranking uranium supplier and President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev told the conference in his keynote address that ensuring reliable, safe, cost-effective and ecologically friendly energy sources is a top priority in the large-scale reforms carried out in "New Uzbekistan". The country's generation is a top priority for the country: its generation is currently dominated by natural gas, and it also imports electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but demand is expected to double by 2030.
Infrastructure work began earlier this year for the construction of a six-unit small modular reactor nuclear power plant to be built in the Jizzakh region, based on the 55 MW RITM-200N pressurised water reactor - the first export order for the Russian design.
Shimane 2 restarts after 13 years being offline
Monday, 9 December 2024
Unit 2 of the Shimane nuclear power plant in Japan's Shimane Prefecture was restarted on 7 December, Chugoku Electric Power Company announced. It becomes the fourteenth Japanese reactor - and the second boiling water reactor - to resume operation.
The Shimane plant (Image: Qurren/CreativeCommons)
The 789 MWe boiling water reactor (BWR) had been offline since January 2012.
In June 2021, Shimane 2 became the 17th Japanese reactor to pass the regulator's safety screenings and the fifth BWR - the same type as those at the Fukushima Daiichi plant - to receive regulatory approval to restart.
Following approvals by the cities of Matsue, Izumo, Yasugi and Unnan, in June 2022 the governor of Shimane prefecture approved the restart of Shimane 2. His approval marked the completion of the process to gain the consent of local communities for the unit to resume operation.
In early October, Chugoku released a revised schedule for the restart of the unit. It said the reactor was expected to restart in early December, with power generation scheduled to begin in late December. The reactor will resume commercial operation in early January 2025.
Chugoku began loading fuel into the core of Shimane 2 on 28 October. The process of loading the 560 fuel assemblies was completed on 3 November.
The company has now announced that the reactor was restarted at 3pm local time on 7 December, reaching criticality at 4.50pm.
Chugoku President and CEO Kengo Nakagawa said: "We believe that we have reached an important milestone in the restart process. We will continue to put safety first and work with even greater intensity as we steadily proceed with inspections and checks of equipment in preparation for paralleling (restarting) generators and resuming commercial operations one by one. We will do our best to ensure the restart process.
"Furthermore, we aim to be a power plant that provides peace of mind to the local community by striving to appropriately disclose information regarding the status and initiatives of the power plant, and providing detailed explanations at various opportunities."
The restart of Shimane 2 was welcomed by Kingo Hayashi, chairman of the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan. "We believe this is the result of the various efforts that Chugoku Electric Power and its partner companies have made to make safety their number one priority, as well as the careful explanation of those efforts to the local community. We would like to express our gratitude and respect to Chugoku Electric Power, the local government where the plant is located, and all those involved in the project.
"We recognise that this reactor startup marks an important milestone toward the restart of Shimane nuclear power plant unit 2. It is expected that the plant will be restarted under safe operations in the future, and in addition to this being from the perspectives of improving energy self-sufficiency, ensuring a stable supply of electricity, and achieving carbon neutrality, we believe this is extremely significant in that it will be the second restart of a BWR, which has not made as much progress in restarting as pressurised water reactors (PWRs), following the recent restart of Tohoku Electric Power's Onagawa nuclear power plant unit 2."
Onagawa 2 was restarted on 29 October, becoming the first BWR in Japan to be restarted.
Framatome to share fast reactor experience with Japan
Friday, 6 December 2024
France's Framatome has signed a Design Cooperation Implementation Arrangement for the development of sodium-cooled fast reactors with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi FBR Systems.
The signing of the agreement (Image: Framatome)
The General Arrangement - which summarises the details of cooperation between Japan and France regarding the development of fast reactors - has been updated between the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan, and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission.
Following the update of this agreement, the implementing agencies of the fast reactor development collaboration - Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Japan Atomic Power Company (JAPC), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Mitsubishi FBR Systems (MFBR) - signed an Arrangement for R&D Cooperation for research, development and design review of fast reactors with the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), EDF and Framatome. Under the Arrangement for R&D Cooperation, Japan's experience from the Joyo and Monju fast reactors and France's experience from the Phenix and Superphenix reactors will be used to advance research and development of severe accidents, structural materials, core materials, fuel technology, numerical simulation tools, design review, and design requirements for the Japanese demonstration fast reactor.
In addition, JAEA, MHI and MFBR signed a Design Cooperation Implementation Arrangement with Framatome on design cooperation for the fast reactor. The Design Cooperation Implementation Arrangement calls for cooperation taking lessons from France's experience to develop the design and design evaluation of equipment and systems that the Japanese side considers necessary for the Japanese project.
The agreement was signed on Friday in Tokyo by Framatome Executive Vice President François Billot, JAEA President Masanori Koguchi, MHI Senior Vice President Hidehito Mimaki and MFBR President Makoto Yamagishi.
Framatome noted the agreement marks the beginning of its contribution to the new Japanese programme for the development of a demonstration sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR).
"With the conclusion of these implementing arrangements, the development track record and operating experience in France will be reflected in the conceptual design of the Japanese demonstration fast reactor and associated research and development in Japan, promoting the development of fast reactors in Japan and in France," the Japanese partners said in a joint statement.
Japan's demonstration sodium-cooled fast reactor (with a capacity of about 600 MWe) is based on an integrated SFR architecture (pool-type reactor) already developed and implemented in France. At the request of the Japanese partners, Framatome will provide feedback and design evaluation both on the technology and the architecture of this type of reactor.
"Framatome is proud to be able to share its experience in developing this technology with our Japanese partners," said François Billot, executive vice president of Framatome Offers & Projects. "This cooperation will contribute to reinforcing and maintaining the skills acquired by Framatome in the field of sodium-cooled fast reactors. This new agreement strengthens the cooperation that began 10 years ago."
In December 2019, MHI and MFBR, together with JAEA, signed an agreement to cooperate on the development of fast neutron reactors with Framatome and the CEA.
MHI was selected in July 2023 by the Japanese government to lead the conceptual design of the demonstration SFR, which is to enter operation in the 2040s. MHI will oversee both the conceptual design as well as research and development for the reactor in partnership with MFBR, which was established in 2007 as an engineering company responsible for the development of FBRs in Japan based on the Mitsubishi Group's accumulated experience in nuclear-related business.
Fast neutron reactors offer the prospect of vastly more efficient use of uranium resources than in conventional power reactors, as well as the ability to burn actinides. Fast reactors have operated in various countries since the 1950s, with some producing electricity commercially.
JAEA has a history of operating sodium-cooled fast reactors, such as Monju in Fukui Prefecture and the Joyo experimental fast reactor in Ibaraki Prefecture. However, the development of fast reactors in Japan was halted when the government decided to decommission Monju in 2016, following a series of problems, including leakage of sodium coolant in 1995.
France itself has operated three such reactors since the 1960s, including Phenix, which operated from 1973 to 2009. The CEA was commissioned by the government to develop two fourth generation fast reactors including Astrid in 2006, and it was decided in 2009 to make Astrid a high R&D priority because of its potential as an actinide burner.
The Deimos experiment at Los Alamos National Laboratory is the first criticality experiment using high assay low-enriched uranium fuel to be carried out in the USA in more than 20 years, and will help to develop public data and criticality benchmarks for the material.
A graphite fuel 'cup' containing fuel pellets ready for insertion into a Deimos graphite monolith (Image: DOE)
Criticality benchmarks are essential to nuclear design and safety evaluations required by the industry and regulatory bodies, but there are very few benchmarks that use high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU). The US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission are collaborating on the development of criticality data for HALEU: in August, the DOE awarded USD17 million of funding to 16 projects to help develop public data and criticality benchmarks related to the use, storage, and transportation of HALEU fuels.
The Deimos criticality demonstration, funded by Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development programme, took place at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center at the Nevada National Security Site. The centre has four critical experiment machines and is the only general-purpose critical experiments facility in the USA equipped to conduct experiments on fissionable material at or near criticality.
One of the critical assembly machines at the centre was modified to accommodate a new graphite core and 'cups' to hold HALEU-based fuel pellets containing TRISO (tri-structural isotropic) fuel particles. After demonstrating criticality of the system, the experiment was then measured at room temperature and heated to more than 200° Fahrenheit (93.3° Celsius) to generate new criticality safety data on HALEU fuel.
Assembling the Deimos experiment (Image: Department of Energy (DOE))
"The Deimos experiment is an important step towards deploying HALEU-fuelled nuclear reactors," said Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Programme Manager for Nuclear Energy Chris Stanek said. "We are excited and proud to make use of unique LANL capabilities to advance the nation's advanced reactor goals, and we look forward to future experiments that Deimos enables."
Many advanced reactors will require HALEU to achieve smaller designs, longer operating cycles, and increased efficiencies over existing nuclear technologies. Data developed from the projects funded through the DOE and Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Criticality Benchmarking solicitation will be made publicly available to enable efficient future design and safety reviews and help the nuclear industry develop new and novel solutions to address data gaps.
The U.S. resumed silicon solar cell production in Q3 2024, achieving nearly 40 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity.
Federal incentives like the IRA have driven growth, but Trump's return and GOP dominance pose risks to clean energy policies.
Despite market sell-offs, First Solar stands out with a unique, China-independent manufacturing process.
Solar cell manufacturing in the United States resumed in the third quarter as silicon cells were manufactured in the country for the first time since 2019, a pivotal moment for America’s surging solar manufacturing sector.
The U.S. added a record-breaking 9.3 gigawatts (GW) of new solar module manufacturing capacity in the quarter. According to the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2024 report released by Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, five new or expanded factories in three states were added, bringing U.S. solar module manufacturing capacity to nearly 40 GW--nearly enough to meet the country’s solar demand.
“Federal solar policies and increased private investments are strengthening our nation’s energy security and creating thousands of new job opportunities for American workers,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “The United States is stepping up to take market share from foreign competitors and making sure that the jobs and economic growth from solar are benefiting American communities.”
Unfortunately, investors have continued to flee from the solar sector, with the selloff accelerating after Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris to clinch leadership of the White House. Trump’s victory has renewed worries among traders that the incoming administration will weaken support for the solar industry, as well as other forms of low-carbon energy.
Sunnova Energy (NASDAQ:NOVA) has crashed -71.3% in the year-to-date, JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) -30.8% and SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG) -86.2%, Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) -45.7%, Array Technologies (NASDAQ:ARRY) -63.9%, Maxeon Solar Technologies (NASDAQ:MAXN) -98.9%, Fluence Energy (NASDAQ:FLNC) -27.8% and Daqo New Energy (NYSE:DQ) -26.7%. Meanwhile, Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) has returned -33.3% YTD while the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:ICLN), the world’s largest green energy ETF and a catch-all bet on clean energy, tanked -21.8% over the timeframe. The sector’s worst performer has been Richmond, California-based SunPower Corporation which filed for bankruptcy on August 5, 2024
Interestingly, Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is one of a handful of clean energy stocks firmly in the green, with FSLR having returned +14.8% YTD. There’s a method to the madness here. For some time, China has been considering an export ban that would help the nation maintain its substantial dominance in solar. Reports have emerged that China plans to ban the export of several key technologies used in the manufacture of solar panels. Amongst the proposed rules, advanced technologies used in the manufacture of wafers and ingots will be placed in a list of export controls, according to a public consultation process. If the plan is adopted, Chinese solar manufacturers would be required to obtain a license from their provincial commerce authorities to export such technologies. Thankfully, unlike its U.S. peers,
First Solar's panels are made using a proprietary process that doesn't rely on Chinese crystalline silicon (c-Si) supply chains.
The IRA In Danger
The biggest reason why solar and clean energy stocks have been routed ever since Trump was declared president-elect is because his president threatens the historic Inflation Reduction Act (IRA. For years, Trump has never hidden his disdain for clean energy . He has repeatedly lambasted the) IRA, describing it as the “biggest tax hike in history”. Trump has pledged to rescind any “unspent” funds under the IRA should he ascend to the Oval Office, again, “To further defeat inflation, my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam,” the former president said before the Economic Club of New York in September.
Two years ago, the Biden administration signed the IRA, allowing hundreds of renewable energy companies to benefit from $369 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for clean energy. In the previous year, the Biden administration passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), with the act authorizing $1.2 trillion in spending for transportation and infrastructure; $43 billion (not including loans and tax incentives) in flexible spending could be used for battery manufacturing, retooling auto industry facilities, retraining and rehiring existing auto workers and grid updates while more than $7.5 billion will support the buildout of EV infrastructure.
Recently, Politico provided estimates that companies have announced plans to build or expand an estimated 555 manufacturing facilities thanks to generous IRA benefits of the IRA. But here’s the kicker: less than half of the 230 facilities that were slated to commence by the end of 2024 will beat the deadline, meaning that over 60% of IRA investments will be at the mercy of the Trump administration. With the GOP set to take both the Senate and the House, a unified Congress could spell doom for Biden’s signature bill.
The IRA has so far survived Republican-led attempts to repeal major parts, but could be under serious threat under a new Trump administration. Trump may lack the power to unilaterally roll back the climate law, but certainly could make its "implementation more difficult", as Shannon Rinehart, portfolio manager at Threadneedle, has pointed out. His administration could hobble the climate law through executive action by revising treasury department rules yet to be finalized, holding back some of its loans and grants and/or tightening limits on tax credits.
“Some parts of the IRA will receive more pushback from Republicans than others. We’re trying to steer clear of those parts,” Chris Berkouwer, portfolio manager at Robeco, reported. According to Berkouwer, investments aimed at improving the grid infrastructure are likely to receive bipartisan support; however, whereas Democrats might want the grid strengthened to cater for the rollout of more renewables, Republicans are likely to favor the renewed infrastructure serving coal and gas power generation utilities.
That said, it’s likely that Trump might face some pushback from his own party if he attempts to do away with the IRA: in September, 18 Republicans in the House of Representatives signed a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson, asking him not to work towards “prematurely repealing energy tax credits” supporting new IRA investments--the majority of which have gone to Republican states.’Red States have actually benefited more from the IRA than blue states: A 2022 report by Climate Central revealed that Iowa and Oklahoma, some of the ‘reddest’ states with Republican governors and majority Republican state legislatures, lead the nation in wind power production; California and Florida are the largest producers of solar power while Texas is a leader in both solar and wind power. The report says that state and federal incentives are a big reason for the rapid growth of renewable energy generation.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
Academic Institutions Under Fire for Fossil Fuel Funding
Many UK universities have divested from fossil fuels, while others, particularly in the US, continue to receive significant funding from the fossil fuel industry.
A recent report raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the influence of fossil fuel companies on academic research.
The report claims to focus on protecting scientific integrity, saying universities need to be transparent about their funding sources and take steps to mitigate outside influence on their research and policies.
After years of pressure from students and environmental groups, a multitude of higher education institutions in the U.K. have committed to excluding fossil fuel companies from their investment portfolios. However, a September report showed that funding from such companies continues to slow the switch to green energy. Meanwhile, several Elite U.S. universities continue to accept millions in funding from Big Oil every year.
The student campaign group People & Planet announced in November that 115 out of 149 U.K. universities had publicly committed to divest from fossil fuels, which is equivalent to around $22.4 billion in funding. This marks a huge turnaround from just a decade ago, showing U.K. academia’s increased commitment to a green transition. People & Planet established its Fossil Free Universities campaign in 2013, one of several student-led efforts to get universities across the country to divest from oil, gas, and coal.
People & Planet’s Laura Clayson stated, “That we can celebrate this today is down to the generations of students and staff that have fought for justice in solidarity with impacted communities. The days of UK universities profiteering from investments in this neo-colonial industry are over.”
Some of the recent universities to have joined the pledge include Birmingham City University, Glasgow School of Art, Royal Northern College of Music and the University of Bradford. The group plans to use the majority shift to encourage the remaining 34 U.K. universities to do the same.
In September, a study published in the journal WIREs Climate Change showed that universities across the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia had not been transparent enough in their sharing of the source of funding for academic research.
In the study, researchers discovered that out of around 14,000 peer-reviewed articles about conflicts of interest, bias, and research funding across all industries between 2003 to 2023, just seven referenced fossil fuels. When looking at book chapters, the authors found a further seven references. However, when looking through the small body of existing scholarship, the authors found hundreds of instances in these countries where oil and gas interests had funded climate and energy research while on advisory or governing boards, endowing academic posts, sponsoring scholarships, advising curricula, or influencing universities in other ways.
The study shows that between 2012 and 2017, BP pumped between $2.1 million and $2.6 million into Princeton University’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative, an initiative that produced research on ways to decarbonize the economy.
The authors state, “We find that universities are an established yet under-researched vehicle of climate obstruction by the fossil fuel industry.” Geoffrey Supran, a co-author of the study explained, “Our intention is to protect scientific integrity… We want to warn scholars and university leaders that they can be pawns in a propaganda scheme.”
This suggests that while U.K. institutions have begun to move away from fossil fuel funding, the lack of transparency over financing in previous years could have tainted past research papers. In addition, many higher education institutions in other countries have yet to sign up to the divestment pledge.
In the U.S., six analyses published in September, with a focus on American University, Columbia University, Cornell University, Princeton University, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill and the University of California, San Diego, showed that many elite U.S. universities continue to accept millions of dollars in funding each year from fossil fuel interests. The reports were written by campus organizers at each institution and published by the Campus Climate Network.
The researchers found that since 2003, the six universities have together received over $100 million in fossil fuel industry-derived funding. They also received millions more in funding from firms that “enable” the fossil fuel industry, including banks that fund oil expansion or groups that have spread climate disinformation.
The researchers believe that the analyses vastly underestimate the true extent of the funding, as many university research centers do not publicly disclose their donors. The research found that the six institutions together published at least 1,507 academic articles that were funded by oil and gas interests. The report stated, “[T]he fossil fuel industry can brand itself onto the reputation of every university it donates to, no matter how upstanding or progressive.”
Princeton University is reported to own, or have owned, a fossil fuel company named Petrotiger, which may have earned nearly $140 million over the last decade, according to research by one co-author, Alex Norbrook. Tax forms demonstrate that the school owned most of the shares in three entities, Petrotiger I, Petrotiger III and Petrotiger IV. Princeton also received at least $43 million from fossil fuel companies and their charities between 2013 to 2023. This led Norbrook to say, “Princeton’s claim that it is a climate leader is false… The university cannot make this claim while continuing to promote the fossil fuel industry behind the scenes.”
While several U.K. universities have publicly committed to divest from fossil fuels, many higher education institutions in other parts of the world have yet to make such a pledge. Universities have received millions of dollars in funding from fossil fuel and related companies in previous decades, and many continue to do so without transparently reporting their funding sources and the potential influence that may have on academic research.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
ECOCIDE
Russia's Shadow Fleet Has Moved Its Oil Smuggling Operations to New Waters
Russia's shadow fleet has moved its ship-to-ship transfers to the Aegean Sea to avoid detection and sanctions.
This practice helps Russia circumvent Western sanctions and continue its oil trade.
The increased ship-to-ship transfers raise environmental concerns and highlight the challenges in enforcing sanctions.
For much of the past three years, tankers carrying Russian crude oil - usually in violation of Western embargo - skirted Western sanctions and oversight by engaging in so-called Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers somewhere in the open sea far from prying eyes and even further from hostile coast guard supervision.
The practice, usually carried out in secret with digital tracking beacons switched off or falsified, can help to obscure the origins of the oil, helping to beat sanctions. It also creates another layer of separation between the buyers and sellers of cargoes.
Of course, to keep STS as a viable option, the places where it takes place have to change periodically. And as Bloomberg reports, the secret switching of Russian fuel cargoes between tankers at sea has migrated to new hotspots off the coast of Greece after the European country used naval drills to try and block the activity in one location.
About 1 million barrels a month of diesel, fuel oil, and other petroleum products have been getting flipped near the islands of Lesbos and Chios in the Aegean Sea, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa.
The area only became popular after Greece’s navy carried out drills around the Laconian Gulf, previously the No. 1 site for the practice in Europe.
A recent surge in ship-to-ship transfers involving Russian oil and fuel in and around Europe has raised environmental concerns because of question marks over the safety and insurance of the vessels involved. Not only that, but the fact that the activity has been soaring confirms that nobody takes the threat of Western sanctions seriously anymore.
Ship-to-ship switching is still happening close by the Laconian Gulf, but at a much-reduced rate since Greece’s naval drills began. The maneuvers left a narrow stretch of water unaffected and it’s in that location that they’re still taking place.
The transfers have also become regular off the Italian port of Augusta since May when the Greek navy began its exercises. On November 14, the drills were extended until mid-March.
While the recent crackdown on Russian STS may have delayed the activity, it certainly won't stop it. And in any event, it pales in comparison to the unprecedented STS activity taking place 40 miles east off the Malaysian peninsula which is "the world’s largest gathering point for dark fleet tankers"...
The U.S. is currently the world's largest LNG exporter, but future growth is threatened by legal challenges, project delays, and a pause on new export permits.
The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election could significantly impact the future of U.S. LNG policy and export potential.
Industry leaders are calling for an end to the permitting pause and streamlined regulations to support continued growth in the U.S. LNG sector.
The U.S. LNG export industry has recently hit several stumbling blocks. And who will be America’s president in the next four years may not even be the biggest.
Litigation at court from environmental groups, a contractor bankruptcy, and President Joe Biden’s permit pause have combined to increase uncertainty for U.S. LNG project developers and exporters this decade.
Top LNG Exporter
The expansion of the LNG export infrastructure over the past five years and the flexibility in cargo destination of U.S. LNG have made America the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Soaring sales in Europe, which has scrambled to replace Russian pipeline gas, and more LNG projects coming online this decade boosted U.S. exports by 12% in 2023 from a year earlier. At 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG exports, the United States easily beat its closest rivals – Qatar and Australia – to become the biggest LNG exporter last year, EIA data showed.
Utilization of U.S. LNG export capacity averaged 104% of nominal capacity and 86% of peak capacity across the seven U.S. LNG terminals operating in 2023 as relatively strong demand for LNG in Europe amid high international natural gas prices supported increased U.S. LNG exports last year.
This year, U.S. LNG exports are set to average 12.1 billion Bcf/d, slightly up from 2023, and 13.8 Bcf/d in 2025, per the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook for October.
Two new projects, Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 and Plaquemines LNG, are in the commissioning phase to start LNG export operations, and each of these facilities will begin exporting LNG by the end of 2024, the EIA said.
Uncertainties Lie Ahead
Going forward, delays at some fully-permitted projects have recently emerged, and they have nothing to do with the U.S. administration’s policy.
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy have seen their $10-billion Golden Pass LNG export plant in Texas slip in the timeline to late next year after the project faced delays due to the bankruptcy of Zachry Holdings, the lead construction contractor. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has just granted a three-year extension to ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy to build their export plant.
Earlier in August, Exxon said it is delaying the start-up of Golden Pass LNG to late 2025 from the first half of next year after work at the facility stalled following the bankruptcy of the lead contractor.
Then there is the Rio Grande LNG project of NextDecade, which also faces delays due to a court ruling over its FERC authorization.
In early August, a U.S. appeals court vacated the remand authorization of NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG export project issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the grounds that the FERC should have issued a supplemental Environmental Impact Statement during its remand process.
This case and other litigation add another layer of uncertainty for U.S. LNG developers.
Of course, the biggest one now is President Biden’s pause on permitting from January until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations. Under environmentalist pressure, the Administration said early this year that during the temporary pause DOE will carry out a new updated review on the impact of such projects on health and communities
The consensus at Wood Mackenzie’s annual conference on ‘Gas, LNG and the Future of Energy’ last week was that the pause in LNG export authorizations would ultimately be seen as something between “a blip” and “a speed bump” for the U.S. LNG sector, wrote Ed Crooks, Senior Vice President, Americas, at WoodMac.
The 47th President and U.S. LNG
Some of the uncertainties for U.S. LNG could be cleared as soon as January when the 47th U.S. president takes office. Donald Trump has promised to immediately restart LNG permitting.
However, analysts have expressed concerns that the U.S LNG export boom could be undermined if a Trump administration slaps a promised 60% tariff on China’s imports, which could lead to Chinese retaliation with China avoiding new LNG purchases from the U.S. or re-selling U.S. cargoes.
After the U.S. election, “It seems highly likely that the pause will be lifted. But new requirements could be imposed on projects that would make securing an authorisation a slower and more complex process,” WoodMac’s Crooks says.
The industry is calling for the pause to be lifted.
“You gotta stop this crazy LNG pause from going forward,” Ryan Lance, chief executive at ConocoPhillips, said at the Gastech conference in Houston last month.
“We absolutely need permitting reform, and we need more infrastructure,” Lance added.
A Trump administration is widely expected to facilitate permitting and ease the regulatory burden on America’s oil and gas industry.
“But the primary determinants of US hydrocarbon production are the revenues and capital allocation strategies of the Majors and E&P companies, which are unlikely to be affected much by what happens in Washington,” according to WoodMac’s Crooks.
Even with a President Trump, or likely precisely because of a Republican in the White House, the environmental campaign against LNG at U.S. courts will gain momentum, and U.S. LNG developers may have to contend with fresh delays stemming from legal challenges.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Nobel Laureate Advocates for Grassroots Climate Action in Kazakhstan
Raekwon Chung, a Nobel laureate, advocates for a "me first" approach to climate action in Kazakhstan, emphasizing individual responsibility and grassroots initiatives.
Kazakhstan faces significant environmental challenges, including melting glaciers, rising heat waves, and water scarcity, making climate action a top priority.
The Association of Environmental Organizations of Kazakhstan (AEOK) plays a crucial role in raising awareness and promoting environmental initiatives, but more action is needed to achieve net-zero goals.
Kazakhstan needs a “me first” campaign to achieve its net-zero goal, Raekwon Chung told Eurasianet. The South Korean Nobel laureate believes action should start at the grassroots.
Against this backdrop, climate action has been propelled to the top of the government’s agenda, underscored by a 2020 pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Going green is now well underway. But the journey so far has been largely top-down.
“I don’t think nationally determined contributions work,” Chung said, referring to state-led efforts by individual countries to minimize national emissions under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The Nobel laureate first visited Kazakhstan in 2007, the same year he won the Peace Prize, as part of an intergovernmental panel of experts on man-made climate change. Since then, South Korea’s first climate change ambassador has traveled to Central Asia multiple times. Most recently, he proposed making the Kazakh city of Alatau zero-carbon, a concept he is not yet allowed to discuss publicly because it has not been “officially accepted.” Chung chairs the board of trustees of the Association of Environmental Organizations of Kazakhstan (AEOK), an umbrella group that among other things runs an ongoing awareness campaign called “StopMusor” (“Stop Littering”).
“I am now promoting the bottom-up [approach] … Each individual has to share the responsibility,” Chung said in a Zoom interview from Seoul.
This stance is very much in line with the COP29 philosophy. At that Baku gathering, developed nations pledged to devote $300 billion a year annually to climate action in developing countries. At the same time, leaders of developed nations said the door was open for “everyone who can afford it” to join in.
“Organizations like AEOK can play a role in social education,” said Chung. Yet he believes that raising awareness is not enough. “To trigger real action, we need to design a [new] system” that shifts the focus from the state to individual consumers, he added.
AEOK brings together 143 environmental entities. Some, like “StopMusor,” are tapping into younger audiences and getting volunteers on board.
In 2020, it brought “The Sky Over Astana,” Saule Suleimenova’s creative installation, to Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. The work featured 4,000 discarded bags glued together to create the impression of a watercolor painting.
It has also launched an interactive map to help people report environmental concerns, and popularizes waste separation. Other AEOK projects focus on biogas and humus production, or reversing land degradation.
Chung visited Astana on Nov. 21-23 for the Nobel Fest education forum and to promote the idea of a “me first” campaign, he said. In what sounds like a paraphrase of Donald Trump’s “America first” motto, the aim is to empower individuals to make their own green choices.
In May, a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) found that some consumers are willing to pay an average of 9.7 percent more for sustainably produced or sourced goods.
Chung has his eye on these ambassadors of change. He believes that younger Kazakhs will be more attracted to companies that are carbon neutral. Businesses should recognize that they can make more money by using green energy and selling carbon-free products, he said. “It can be a marketing tool,” he added.
For AEOK, grassroots advocacy and social education is just one action track. Its other work includes analyzing how climate factors will change migration flows in Central Asia. This is part of a collaboration with the International Organization for Migration. By 2050, there could be as many as 2.4 million climate migrants in the region.
“Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are also involved,” Aigul Solovyova, chair of the AEOK management board, told Eurasianet. Each country is working individually and preparing recommendations for their respective governments.
Kazakh researchers have been working in the mountainous areas of the Almaty region for just over two years. “Glaciers are melting, which could lead to mudslides. Desertification and land degradation will reduce food security,” said Solovyova. “We are now looking at where people will move and where they will take their livestock.”
AEOK interviewed 1,800 households in 2023 and repeated the interviews in 2024. In this short time, awareness of climate change rose from 7 percent to 30 percent. In July, the mountains around Almaty were on high alert for mudslides. According to Solovyova, these risks must have made locals more vigilant.
In Chung’s view, surviving in the desert or wasteland is difficult, “so more and more people will move to the cities.” He believes now is the time to prepare for this influx. “Many cities in Central Asia suffer from underinvestment in infrastructure. It’s old, and overburdened, and needs to be renovated.”
At the same time, the pursuit of a net-zero future also requires urban adjustments, such as introducing a full cycle of waste recycling or replacing private vehicles with an efficient public network.
In this race to meet green targets, the pressure on public authorities is growing. According to Climate Action Tracker projections, Kazakhstan is likely to miss its climate targets, with emissions rising until at least 2035 under current policies and a planned expansion of new coal-fired power generation, one of the few such cases globally.
Other projects, such as the development of Zhezkazgan in central Kazakhstan into a new hub for the production of “clean” energy equipment, are per se beneficial to the green energy transition. Yet some of them can raise concerns about the sustainable development of local communities.
According to Nobel laureate Chung, the only way to ensure that such communities do not feel thrown under the bus of green economy targets is to include them in the decision-making loop. “You have to give ownership of renewable energy projects to local people. With shared ownership, [such initiatives] will run very smoothly.”
Research for this article was made possible with support from the Pulitzer Center.
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