Friday, December 20, 2024

 

Annual report details more economic struggles for Tennessee’s ag sectors



Gross revenues decline for 2024, 2025 outlook is clouded


University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture





In 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and forestry industrial complex was significantly impacted by six major factors: drought, agricultural land loss, trade deficits, decreasing foreign market demand, below average yields and relatively lower prices for major commodities. Researchers and Extension specialists from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics also suggest that the outlook for 2025 could vary depending on the sector.

In the annual economic report to the governor of Tennessee prepared by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the UT Haslam College of Business, the agricultural and resource economists provide an economic outlook for the state’s farmers and foresters. “The state’s agricultural and forestry industries directly and indirectly contributed $103 billion to the Tennessee economy,” says Andrew Muhammad, UTIA professor of agricultural economics. “2024 was a struggle for many of our producers and sectors. Next year could also be difficult, with trade policy uncertainty, low crop prices, drought- and hurricane-reduced feed supplies and high input costs.” Muhammad is a co-author of the report and holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy.

In terms of gross output, the agricultural and forestry industrial complex measured 11% of the economic activity conducted in Tennessee in 2024. An estimated 385,743 individuals worked in industries supported by the complex, which is 8.8% of the state’s total employment.

“Due to the dramatic declines in gross revenue in 2024, many crop producers will struggle with obtaining financing for the 2025 crop, which could affect production and result in consolidation in the row crop sector in Tennessee,” Muhammad and his co-authors write in the report. They add that negative factors affecting the livestock, poultry and dairy industries in 2025 will be continued high interest rates when financing operations and equipment as well as inflation and reduced discretionary spending available to consumers.

The report includes economic indicators for both agricultural and forestry production as well as related manufacturing and processing. The data are consolidated from a number of sources, including the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and others.

Corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat are Tennessee’s top crops, and prices for each fell in 2024. Over the last five years prices for each of the commodities have fallen, with cotton prices having fallen the least over five years (10.8% on average), while corn, soybeans and wheat have all fallen by at least 20% during the period 2019-2024.

Tennessee also had below average yields in 2024, which when combined with price declines and changes in harvested acreage, will result in a dramatic decline in gross cash receipts. Based on current estimates of average prices, yields, and acreage harvested, gross cash receipts for Tennessee corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat will decline by $582.3 million compared to 2023, a drop from $2.2 billion to $1.6 billion. For the 2024-2025 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be similar: $4.00-$5.20 per bushel for corn; $0.67-$0.78 per pound for cotton; $10.00-$11.50 per bushel for soybeans; and $5.30-$6.50 per bushel for wheat.

The value of animals and animal products increased slightly in 2024, accounting for approximately 40% ($2.10 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts. At the beginning of 2024, Tennessee ranked sixteenth nationally in terms of the total cattle and calves inventory (1.60 million head including 835,000 beef cows and 25,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranked twelfth in total beef cow numbers. Kentucky and Florida are the only states east of the Mississippi River with larger beef cow inventories. Tennessee is ranked fourth nationally in meat goat numbers at 72,000 head. In addition to cattle, with cash receipts valued at $876.7 million in 2024, the state has a significant broiler production industry ($794.4 million). Hogs (2.6% of cash receipts), dairy products and milk (1.9%) and chicken eggs (1.7%) round out the top valuations.

A big question mark for the agricultural sector in 2025 will be U.S. trade policies. In FY 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $2.7 billion, down $313.7 million or 10.4% when compared to the previous fiscal year ($3.0 billion). While exports to China and Germany, two of our top agricultural trading partners, increased—primarily because of China’s interest in purchasing cotton— exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds fell by 10.5%, due in large part to a 60% decline in distilled spirits exports to the Netherlands. In better news, related-product exports, which are mostly forest products, were up $15.4 million to a total of $174.8 million (+9.7%).

The following faculty in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics contributed to the agricultural analyses included in the report: Andrew Muhammad, Andrew P. Griffith, Charley Martinez, R. Jamey Menard, Aaron Smith, Sreedhar Upendram and T. Edward Yu.

The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture is comprised of the Herbert College of Agriculture, UT College of Veterinary Medicine, UT AgResearch, and UT Extension. Through its land-grant mission of teaching, research and outreach, the Institute touches lives and provides Real. Life. Solutions. to Tennesseans and beyond. utia.tennessee.edu.

 

Survey reveals concerns and adoption trends around AI’s rising influence



A new Rutgers-led project tracks how Americans view artificial intelligence’s impact on politics, media and daily life



Rutgers University





As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more prevalent, a new Rutgers University-New Brunswick survey sheds light on public attitudes, revealing widespread concerns about its impact on politics and media, alongside an increasing adoption of AI tools in daily life.

More than half of the respondents expressed worry about AI’s impact on politics (58%) and news media (53%), with researchers suggesting these concerns may stem from fears of misinformation and manipulation, particularly during the 2024 election cycle when the survey was conducted.

The survey is part of the National AI Opinion Monitor (NAIOM), a new Rutgers-led, long-term project monitoring public attitudes toward AI. Researchers found 41% of Americans said AI does more harm than good in protecting personal information.

Despite these concerns, the findings show one-third of Americans have used generative AI to ask health-related questions or seek information – a finding that underscores both the opportunities and challenges as these tools evolve. The researchers define AI as a collection of advanced technologies that allow machines to perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as understanding language, decision making and recognizing images. Generative AI is a subset of those technologies which focuses on creating original content, including text, images, audio and video.

To gather these insights, the researchers surveyed nearly 5,000 people between Oct. 25 and Nov. 8 about AI usage and attitudes across demographic groups, including differences by gender, age, socioeconomic status and geographic location.

Katherine Ognyanova, an associate professor of communication at the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and a coauthor of the report, explained that the project was launched in response to the increasing prevalence of AI.

“These tools have the potential to transform a wide range of industries – technology, media, entertainment, marketing, education and health care,” said Ognyanova. “It’s critical to understand how Americans are using and perceiving AI now, as trust in these technologies will shape their adoption, development and regulation. We are at a pivotal moment where public opinion about AI is being formed and rapidly changing as people engage with it firsthand and encounter related narratives in the news.”

“AI development and adoption are accelerating at an unprecedented pace,” said Vivek Singh, an associate professor with the School of Communication, a coauthor of the report and an expert in AI and algorithmic fairness. “Today, AI is no longer confined to the algorithms of tech companies; it has become an integral part of everyday life.”

According to survey results, more than half of Americans (53%) have used a generative AI service such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini or Microsoft Copilot, further demonstrating the increasing influence of these technologies.

Among other findings:

  • Knowledge gaps: While 90% of Americans have heard of AI, 51% recognize the term “generative AI,” and 12% are familiar with “large language models.”
  • Demographic disparities: Younger, male, better-educated and higher-income Americans are more likely to use and show interest in AI tools.
  • Task-specific approval: While 48% of Americans support AI for household chores, majorities disapprove of AI performing surgery (57%) or driving vehicles (53%).
  • Daily interactions: Nearly 30% of respondents encounter AI-generated text or summaries daily, with 86% finding them helpful.

“These findings raise critical questions about inclusion and equity,” said Ognyanova, who is also director of the Rutgers Computational Social Science Lab and one of the founders and principal investigators of the COVID States Project and the Civic Health and Institutions Project, which are initiatives by multiple universities exploring public attitudes towards politics and health. “Older Americans and those with lower educational attainment may be less likely to benefit from these tools, which risks creating a new digital divide.”

The NAIOM survey provides baseline data on how Americans perceive and use generative AI, creating a foundation for monitoring changes over time. The researchers stressed this ongoing tracking is vital as public attitudes toward AI continue to evolve.

To capture evolving trends, researchers plan to conduct national surveys three times a year with a sample of 5,000 respondents. This sample includes nationally representative quotas and oversamples groups such as individuals under 25, those older than age 65 and Hispanic and Black respondents. The researchers aim to examine AI's impact on young people, older adults and minority communities.

Reports will explore themes including AI adoption, trust, attitudes toward AI-generated content, regulation and AI’s role in jobs.

“Both of us share a keen interest in understanding how people evaluate information and misinformation, whether it comes from human or nonhuman sources,” said Singh, who is the director of the Behavioral Informatics Lab at Rutgers. “We’ve consulted with experts and hope to expand our advisory board as the project grows.”

The researchers hope NAIOM will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, media and the public, offering data-driven insights into the evolving role of AI in society.


 

Sugar solution fights infection in dairy cows just as well as antibiotics



New treatment for dairy cows could help fight antibiotic resistance, study finds


Penn State

dairy cows in a cow barn 

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A led by Penn State researchers compared two treatments for a common uterine infection, called clinical metritis, that can lead to serious health problems for dairy cows. One treatment was based on antibiotics and the other was not. Both treatments had a similar clinical cure rate in mild cases of the disease. 

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Credit: Penn State





UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A concentrated sugar solution could be just as effective as antibiotics at treating a common infection in dairy cows, according to a new study led by researchers at Penn State. The results were recently published in the journal Frontiers in Veterinary Science.

The discovery has the potential to reduce reliance on antibiotics and ultimately help combat the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance in both humans and animals, said Adrian Barragan, associate research professor and extension veterinarian at Penn State and co-lead author on the paper.

The findings are particularly significant for the organic dairy industry where antibiotic use is restricted, he added, and may also pave the way for future studies in humans on the use of sugar-based formulations for uterine infections such as endometritis.

“The disease is an infection of the uterus that occurs after calving and it’s one of the top diseases that affect dairy cattle in the United States,” said Erika Ganda, assistant professor of food animal microbiomes at Penn State and co-lead author on the study. “We treat cows with antibiotics only when necessary to ensure their welfare, following strict withdrawal periods to prevent residues in milk. Minimizing antibiotic use helps reduce the risk of resistant bacteria that can impact farm workers, families and communities. Antimicrobial resistance in human and veterinary medicine is a growing public health concern, so the main goal of this research was to test an antibiotic-free alternative option against the current gold standard for treating this prevalent disease.”

The study compared two treatments for a common uterine infection, called clinical metritis, that can lead to serious health problems for dairy cows. The condition is typically treated using systemic antibiotics, like ceftiofur, which are effective in treating the condition, but may contribute to the growing antimicrobial resistance in food-producing animals.

“We have been searching for alternative therapies that can effectively treat metritis without relying on antibiotics,” Barragan said. “We asked two main questions when studying an alternative: Do the animals get cured with this treatment? And do treated animals have similar performance? Although the alternative treatment had the same clinical cure rate as the antibiotics, the answer wasn’t as clear cut as expected since performance between treatment groups differed based on disease severity.”

The study focused on using intrauterine dextrose, a sugar solution, as a possible alternative treatment. Dextrose has been extensively studied in animal and human clinical research for its ability to plasmolyze harmful bacteria, essentially the strong sugar solution pulls water out of the bacteria, causing them to dry out and die, Barragan explained. The approach had shown some promise in human wound healing, but previous studies in cattle yielded mixed results.

“We were hopeful that we would find positive results, but we were definitely not expecting to find that both treatments worked similarly for mild cases of metritis,” Barragan said. “That was a very exciting discovery.”

To investigate the effectiveness of dextrose, the researchers conducted a study on a dairy farm in central Pennsylvania. They enrolled 77 cows diagnosed with clinical metritis and randomly assigned them to one of two treatment groups: intrauterine dextrose or systemic ceftiofur. The researchers then monitored the cows' recovery and analyzed their uterine microbial communities using advanced DNA sequencing to better understand the overall health of their microbiomes.

Although the sample size was not ideal for assessing clinical cure rate, Barragan said, the results suggested that both treatments had similar clinical cure rates, meaning dextrose could be just as effective as antibiotics in treating mild metritis cases.

Additionally, the analysis of the cows' microbiomes revealed that dextrose does not significantly disrupt the bacterial balance of bacteria in the reproductive tract, unlike antibiotics, which can alter microbial communities and potentially impact the long-term health of the cow, Ganda explained.

Further research is needed to understand the full potential of dextrose as an alternative to antibiotic treatment, Barragan said, but one day that potential could even extend to treating humans.

“Our findings may be applicable for reproductive disease in human medicine,” he said. “In fact, we were inspired by medical literature and sugar-based wound treatments for people.”

The other Penn State authors on the paper are Jennine Lection, who earned a doctoral degree from Penn State and is currently an assistant professor at North Carolina State University; Emily Van Syoc, postdoctoral scholar; Asha Miles, former postdoctoral research associate who is currently a research geneticist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); Julia Hamilton, undergraduate student; Marcela Martinez, research technologist; and Justin Silverman, assistant professor of statistics and of medicine and faculty fellow of the Institute for Computational and Data Science. Santiago Bas of the Germany-based feed company Phytobiotics Futterzusatzstoffe GmbH also contributed to the paper.

The USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and Hatch Appropriations, the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture, and the National Institutes of Health funded this research.

 

A surgical fix to greenhouse gases



University of Pittsburgh




A University of Pittsburgh study inspired by the late Freddie H. Fu, MD, one of the world’s leading orthopaedic surgeons, is tackling a significant contributor to climate change– the healthcare sector.1 Engineers and physicians examined how one procedure in particular – anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction – contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and how its impacts can be reduced.

The paper, “How Can the Environmental Impact of Orthopaedic Surgery Be Measured and Reduced? Using Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction as a Test Case,” was published this month by Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research (doi 10.1097/CORR.0000000000003242). Principal investigator is Melissa M. Bilec, PhD, the George M. and Eva M. Bevier Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Pitt’s Swanson School of Engineering and co-director of the Mascaro Center for Sustainable Innovation; and first author is Nathalia Silva de Souza Lima Cano, MSc, Fulbright/CAPES PhD Fellow at Pitt. Bilec partnered with Fu and his team at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine’s Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, where he served as chair.

The investigators utilized a method known as life-cycle assessment (LCA), which analyzes the entire life cycle of a product, service, or industry, from raw material extraction, manufacturing, distribution, use, and end-of-life. Bilec was the first to apply this process to examining hospital room infant births in 2012 in a study with UPMC Magee-Womens Hospital.

“While life cycle assessment and material flow analysis (MFA) are  tools in engineering and sustainability research, their potential has only recently been adapted to understanding the incredible impact that healthcare has on climate,” noted Bilec, who is also the Special Assistant to the Provost for Sustainability at Pitt. “This “cradle-to-grave” assessment takes a hard look at every product and process involved – in this case, with ACL surgery, everything from the materials used to make the devices used in surgery to the energy consumed, and the cost of disposing of the material. Partnerships with Pitt and UPMC are critical to advancing our collective strategic climate and environmental goals.

A University of Pittsburgh study inspired by the late Freddie H. Fu, MD, one of the world’s leading orthopaedic surgeons, is tackling a significant contributor to climate change– the healthcare sector.1 Engineers and physicians examined how one procedure in particular – anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction – contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and how its impacts can be reduced.

The paper, “How Can the Environmental Impact of Orthopaedic Surgery Be Measured and Reduced? Using Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction as a Test Case,” was published this month by Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research (doi 10.1097/CORR.0000000000003242). Principal investigator is Melissa M. Bilec, PhD, the George M. and Eva M. Bevier Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Pitt’s Swanson School of Engineering and co-director of the Mascaro Center for Sustainable Innovation; and first author is Nathalia Silva de Souza Lima Cano, MSc, Fulbright/CAPES PhD Fellow at Pitt. Bilec partnered with Fu and his team at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine’s Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, where he served as chair.

The investigators utilized a method known as life-cycle assessment (LCA), which analyzes the entire life cycle of a product, service, or industry, from raw material extraction, manufacturing, distribution, use, and end-of-life. Bilec was the first to apply this process to examining hospital room infant births in 2012 in a study with UPMC Magee-Womens Hospital.

“While life cycle assessment and material flow analysis (MFA) are  tools in engineering and sustainability research, their potential has only recently been adapted to understanding the incredible impact that healthcare has on climate,” noted Bilec, who is also the Special Assistant to the Provost for Sustainability at Pitt. “This “cradle-to-grave” assessment takes a hard look at every product and process involved – in this case, with ACL surgery, everything from the materials used to make the devices used in surgery to the energy consumed, and the cost of disposing of the material. Partnerships with Pitt and UPMC are critical to advancing our collective strategic climate and environmental goals.

An unrivaled carbon footprint

Greenhouse gas emissions seem easy to understand – a fuel is produced and consumed, and emissions are released into the atmosphere, like when driving a car or flying in a plane. However, according to first author Nathalia Cano, conducting an LCA on a complex process such as construction of a building or performing surgery results in astonishing carbon footprints. 

“As healthcare professionals and researchers, we must explore ways to make our practices more sustainable without compromising patient outcomes,” Cano said. “With LCA and MFA as our toolbox, we examined scenarios throughout the operation to reduce environmental impact, including reducing resources, optimizing surgical practices, and exploring innovative materials and circular economy approaches.”

Some of their findings include:

  • The carbon footprint of one ACLR is 47 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) or driving a typical gasoline-fueled passenger vehicle about 120 miles.
  • The 130,000 ACLRs each year in the U.S. produce approximately 6,110 metric tons of CO2eq per year, or about 15 million miles driven.
  • Products contributing most to global warming potential were disposable cotton for OR towels (9 percent) and laparotomy sponges (1 percent) and disposable plastics made of polypropylene (6 percent), including disposable fabrics such as drapes.
  • Production of all products accounted for 58 percent of global warming potential, and energy for OR equipment and HVAC were responsible for 10 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
  • Autoclaving steel surgical instruments was responsible for 9 percent, linens laundering for 4 percent, and waste disposal for 1 percent of global warming potential.

“Though the most important priority in surgery is excellent patient care, surgeons can and should also be mindful of the carbon footprint of our surgeries,” noted Ian Engler, MD, Orthopedic Sports Medicine Surgeon at the Central Maine Medical Center (previously a research fellow at . “We make many decisions in patient care that lead to a big environmental footprint, and this research helps us guide efforts to integrate sustainability into orthopedic surgery. 

“We presented this idea to Dr. Freddie Fu (left) several months before he passed. He said, “I thought I knew everything about the ACL, and here is something I didn’t know.” His contagious enthusiasm jumpstarted the research and is the reason it came to be.”

 Fu launched UPMC’s sports medicine program and was head team physician for Pitt’s Department of Athletics.

 Other researchers in the study:

  • Nicholas Drain, MD, University of Pittsburgh Department of Orthopaedic Surgery
  • Federica Geremicca, MSc, University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering
  • Dylan Lawson, BSc, University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering
  • Bryson P. Lesniak, MD, Associate Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Pittsburgh
  • Rezvan Mohammadiziazi, PhD, senior research analyst, Energy Solutions (formerly post-doctoral researcher, Swanson School of Engineering)
  • Volker Musahl, MD, Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Pittsburgh
    • Musahl is an orthopaedic surgeon and is board certified in orthopaedic surgery and orthopaedic sports medicine. He is the medical director of the UPMC Rooney Sports Medicine Complex, program director of the sports medicine fellowship program, and a professor of both bioengineering and orthopaedic surgery at the University of Pittsburgh. 

 

Thursday, December 19, 2024

 

Research shows how music can reduce distress



Music therapy has unique role in improving wellbeing in advanced dementia care



Anglia Ruskin University




A new study has demonstrated for the first time how and why music can reduce distress and agitation for people with advanced dementia.

There are an estimated one million people living with dementia in the UK and over half are diagnosed with advanced dementia, which can require specialist care and is often accompanied by behaviour such as agitation, aggression, wandering, and resistance to care.

Published in the journal Nature Mental Health, the research reveals the different benefits of music therapy, identifies mechanisms to explain why music can have these effects, and provides a blueprint for implementing effective music therapy for people with advanced dementia.

Music therapy, delivered by trained therapists, can include singing, playing or listening to music. The therapist can also identify specific ways that music can be used by families and carers in an individual’s daily care routine.

The new study, led by Naomi Thompson of Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) in Cambridge, England, is the first music therapy dementia care realist review, which combines academic research with stakeholder input to develop guidelines for delivering personalised interventions.

The research shows that if music therapy is designed to individual needs, it can deliver an immediate, short-term reduction in agitation and anxiety for individuals with advanced dementia, and improvements in attention, engagement, alertness and mood. Musical interactions can help people feel safer and more orientated in their surroundings, which can lower levels of distress and improve wellbeing.

This effect happens because music, whether playing, singing or listening, delivers cognitive and sensory stimulation, activates networks across both sides of the brain enabling access to the person’s remaining abilities and memories, and helps people manage their emotions and remain calm. Music can also be tailored to reduce physiological stress, specifically in the autonomic nervous system.

Music-evoked memories, especially those triggered by familiar music, are recalled more quickly and are more positive and specific than memories recalled without music, and often relate to earlier in the person’s life. Songs from when the individual was aged between 10–30 years old are found to be the most effective.

As a form of nonverbal communication, music is accessible regardless of cognitive impairment or musical ability, and provides opportunities for social interaction with staff, carers and fellow patients or care home residents.

The study recommends that music therapists train other professionals, ensuring all staff involved in the care of people with advanced dementia can use music, regardless of their experience. Resources, including musical instruments and information about how to produce personalised playlists, should be available, and families should be encouraged to use music to support their relatives.

Engaging in music may also benefit care staff and family members by reducing their levels of stress and improving their wellbeing. It can deliver meaningful moments that may be different to the carers’ usual interactions, it can foster empathy, and it can help staff better engage with the person with dementia, especially during times of increased distress.

The study involved interviews with staff and music therapists on inpatient mental health dementia wards at the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, a systematic review of published research, and a national survey of healthcare professionals. The researchers also collaborated with the dementia specialist nursing charity Dementia UK.

Lead author Naomi Thompson, of Anglia Ruskin University’s Cambridge Institute for Music Therapy Research, said: “With an aging population and increasing numbers of people diagnosed with dementia, music is a relatively straightforward and cost-effective way of improving the quality of life of those affected.

“Our study not only shows why music therapy is successful – including meeting the person’s need for stimulation, supporting familiarity through memories, encouraging relationship and emotional expression, and crucially helping with the reduction of distress and anxiety – it also paves the way for its wider use in dementia care.

“Music, in particular recorded music, is an accessible way for staff and families to help manage distress, and music therapists can advise on tailoring music for individuals. Just as a doctor prescribes medications with a specific dose and frequency, a music therapist can outline an individualised programme, setting out how music should be used throughout someone’s day to reduce distress and improve their wellbeing.”

Co-author Dr Ben Underwood, Research and Development Director at Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust and Associate Professor at the University of Cambridge, said: “People with advanced dementia can sometimes become quite distressed and we need to find the best ways to help them. Music is one thing which can help, and so I am excited to see such high-quality work being done in partnership to see how we can bring music therapy to NHS dementia patients.”

 

Virginia Tech study extends chart of life by nearly 1.5 billion years




Ancient species may have evolved slower and lasted longer, but the pace of evolution accelerated after global ice ages, according to a new Virginia Tech analysis. The study, published in the journal Science, maps the rise and fall of ancient life many tim



Peer-Reviewed Publication

Virginia Tech

Shuhai Xiao 

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Geobiologist Shuhai Xiao (at left) and colleague in the field in Canada.

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Credit: Photo courtesy of Danielle Fitzgerald.




If all the world's a stage and all the species merely players, then their exits and entrances can be found in the rock record.

Fossilized skeletons and shells clearly show how evolution and extinction unfolded over the past half a billion years, but a new Virginia Tech analysis extends the chart of life to nearly 2 billion years ago.

The chart shows the relative ups and downs in species counts, telling scientists about the origin, diversification, and extinction of ancient life.

With this new study, the chart of life now includes life forms from the Proterozoic Eon, 2,500 million to 539 million years ago. Proterozoic life was generally smaller and squishier — like sea sponges that didn’t develop mineral skeletons — and left fewer traces to fossilize in the first place.  

Virginia Tech geobiologist Shuhai Xiao and collaborators published a high-resolution analysis of the global diversity of Proterozoic life based on a global compilation of fossil data, which was released Dec. 20 in the journal Science.

Xiao and his team looked specifically at records of ancient marine eukaryotes — organisms whose cells contain a nucleus. Early eukaryotes later evolved into the multicellular organisms credited for ushering in a whole new era for life on Earth, including animals, plants, and fungi.

“This is the most comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of this period to date,” said Xiao who recently was inducted into the National Academy of Sciences. “And more importantly, we’ve used a graphic correlation program that allowed us to achieve greater temporal resolution.”

The choreography of species offers critical insights into the parallel paths of the evolution of life and Earth.

Observed patterns and insights suggested by the analysis:

  • The first eukaryotes arose no later than 1.8 billion years ago and gradually evolved to a stable level of diversity from about 1,450 million to 720 million years ago, a period aptly known as the “boring billion,” when species turnover rates were remarkably low.
  • Eukaryotic species in the “boring billion” may have evolved slower and lasted longer than those came later.
  • Then cataclysm: Snowball Earth, a spiral of plunging temperatures, sealed the planet in ice at least twice between 720 million and 635 million years ago. When the ice eventually thawed, evolutionary activity picked up, and things weren’t so boring anymore.

“The ice ages were a major factor that reset the evolutionary path in terms of diversity and dynamics,” Xiao said. “We see rapid turnover of eukaryotic species immediately after glaciation. That’s a major finding.”

The patterns, Xiao said, raise a lot of interesting questions, including:

  • Why was eukaryotic evolution sluggish during the “boring billion”?
  • What factors contributed to the increased pace of evolution after snowball ice ages?
    • Was it environmental, such as climate changes and increases in atmospheric oxygen level?
    • Was it an evolutionary arms race between different organisms that could drive creatures to evolve quickly?

Future scientists can use the quantified pattern to answer these questions and better understand the complex interplay of life on Earth and the Earth itself.

Study collaborators include:

  • Qing Tang, first author, former graduate student and postdoctoral researcher, now at Nanjing University, as well as former graduate students Drew Muscente, now at Princeton Consultants, and Natalia Bykova, now at the University of Missouri, who worked in Xiao’s lab in the past decade
  • Researchers from the University of Hong Kong; University of California, Santa Barbara; Princeton Consultants; University of Missouri; Russian Academy of Sciences; University of California, Riverside; Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Northwest University (China)

Proterozoic Eon 

Disclaimer: AAAS a

 

Early warning tool will help control huge locust swarms



University of Cambridge
Locust swarm in Somalia 

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This migratory pest can reach plague proportions, and a swarm covering one square kilometre can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people.

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Credit: Keith Cressman, FAO




Desert locusts typically lead solitary lives until something - like intense rainfall - triggers them to swarm in vast numbers, often with devastating consequences. 

This migratory pest can reach plague proportions, and a swarm covering one square kilometre can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people. Such extensive crop destruction pushes up local food prices and can lead to riots and mass starvation.

Now a team led by the University of Cambridge has developed a way to predict when and where desert locusts will swarm, so they can be dealt with before the problem gets out of hand. 

It uses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office, and state-of the-art computational models of the insects’ movements in the air, to predict where swarms will go as they search for new feeding and breeding grounds. The areas likely to be affected can then be sprayed with pesticides.

Until now, predicting and controlling locust swarms has been ‘hit and miss’, according to the researchers. Their new model, published today in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, will enable national agencies to respond quickly to a developing locust threat.

Desert locust control is a top priority for food security: it is the biggest migratory pest for smallholder farmers in many regions of Africa and Asia, and capable of long-distance travel across national boundaries.

Climate change is expected to drive more frequent desert locust swarms, by causing trigger events like cyclones and intense rainfall. These bring moisture to desert regions that allows plants to thrive, providing food for locusts that triggers their breeding.

“During a desert locust outbreak we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites. And if they’re not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they’ll go next so preparations can be made there,” said Dr Renata Retkute, a researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and first author of the paper.

“The important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge, before it causes a major crop loss.  Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve,” said Professor Chris Gilligan in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, senior author of the paper.

He added: “Our model will allow us to hit the ground running in future, rather than starting from scratch as has historically been the case.”

The team noticed the need for a comprehensive model of desert locust behaviour during the response to a massive upsurge over 2019-2021, which extended from Kenya to India and put huge strain on wheat production in these regions. The infestations destroyed sugarcane, sorghum, maize and root crops. The researchers say the scientific response was hampered by the need to gather and integrate information from a range of disparate sources.

“The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest,” said Retkute. 

Although models like this have been attempted before, this is the first that can rapidly and reliably predict swarm behaviour. It takes into account the insects’ lifecycle and their selection of breeding sites, and can forecast locust swarm movements both short and long-term. 

The new model has been rigorously tested using real surveillance and weather data from the last major locust upsurge. It will inform surveillance, early warning, and management of desert locust swarms by national governments, and international organisations like the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

The researchers say countries that haven’t experienced a locust upsurge in many years are often ill-prepared to respond, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft and pesticides. As climate change alters the movement and spread of major swarms, better planning is needed - making the new model a timely development.
 

Locust swarm in Ethiopia