Friday, December 20, 2024

  

How prepared are we for another pandemic? Mathematical insights pinpoint lessons on airborne viral transmission




University of Surrey




Half a decade on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a study by the University of Surrey highlights the significant impact of combined public health measures in reducing airborne viral transmission. High-quality face masks were shown to reduce transmission risk by ninefold, while doubling indoor air ventilation cut the risk by nearly a third, providing valuable insights to support future prevention strategies for respiratory diseases. 

In 2020, the world came to a near standstill as rising COVID-19 cases prompted unprecedented lockdowns, travel restrictions and widespread public health measures. The World Health Organization estimates that more than three million deaths were directly attributed to the virus during the first year of the outbreak, underscoring the devastating toll of the pandemic on global health and economies. 

To better understand the dynamics of airborne transmission and inform future preparations, Dr Richard Sear, Associate Professor at Surrey’s School of Mathematics and Physics, explored how the virus spreads during contact and the role of protective measures in reducing risk. 

Dr Sear said: 

“I’ve tried to measure how effective strategies, such as mask-wearing, are for the transmission of airborne viruses. This is both for any future pandemic, and for seasonal flu. I combined modelling with data from the UK’s NHS COVID-19 app. While these estimates are highly approximate, they provide guidance on the value of measures such as face masks, social distancing and improved indoor air quality, which could be tested in the future.” 

Factors such as viral load, ventilation and individual susceptibility are likely to influence a significant variability in COVID-19 transmission rates, with some contacts posing a much higher risk than others. These findings highlight the importance of addressing environmental and behavioural factors in public health strategies. 

In terms of personal protective equipment (PPE), high-quality face masks, such as N95/FFP2, were found to be particularly effective in reducing transmission risk, decreasing the effective reproduction number for COVID-19 transmission by a factor of approximately nine when worn by the entire UK population. Even individual use of N95 masks can lower transmission risk by threefold, no matter the duration of contact, whereas surgical and cloth masks are much less effective.  

Ventilation also plays a critical role in controlling airborne transmission, as viral particles linger in poorly ventilated spaces, compounded by individual behaviours, such as close-contact interactions, speaking or coughing. By doubling the air turnover rate indoors, whether that’s through open windows and doors or increasing speed on air conditioning systems, transmission can be reduced by as much as 30%. Complementing good ventilation with physical distancing further minimises the risk. 

Dr Sear added: 

“The COVID-19 pandemic was terrible for many of us, which is why it’s important that we learn from our experiences. It also demonstrated how quickly we can develop and roll out vaccines when faced with a global health crisis. Moving forward, both we as individuals and our leaders have an opportunity to apply these lessons to better control respiratory diseases - not only to head off any future pandemics, but to also manage seasonal diseases such as flu and RSV.” 

 

[ENDS]  

Notes to editors

  • Dr Richard Sear is available for interview, please contact mediarelations@surrey.ac.uk to arrange.    

Cultural differences account for starkly different responses to COVID-19



Association for Psychological Science




Hello Kitty has eyes but no mouth. The unique anatomy of the world-famous Japanese cartoon girl, who appears to be a cat, reflects an important aspect of her nation’s cultural norms—she doesn’t need a mouth because in Japan, it is more important to read the feelings of others than to broadcast your own. This tendency likely contributed to the easy adoption of mask-wearing among Japanese people during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially when compared to Americans who are averse to covering the facial feature most used to express their unique thoughts and feelings. 

This issue of Psychological Science in the Public Interest explores the cultural differences between the United States and East Asian countries that contributed to divergent COVID-19 outcomes. APS William James Fellow Hazel Markus of Stanford University and her team illustrate how cultural defaults—or common-sense ways of thinking and feeling in a particular culture—account for the starkly different responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

A preference for social choice, a willingness to wait and adjust, and a calm attitude are some of the cultural factors that led to a more effective response to the virus in the East Asian countries of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. In the United States, by contrast, individuals leaned toward personal choice, an attitude of control, and a tendency to become angry or experience other high arousal emotions.  

These different cultural responses likely contributed to massive variations in the number of COVID-related deaths in each country. By March 2023, 1.1 million people had died in the United States, 73,000 in Japan, 17,700 in Taiwan, and 34,100 in South Korea.  

“While variation in the number of COVID-19 deaths indicates that some nations were indeed better equipped to respond to this particular crisis than others, we do not suggest that one set of cultural defaults is generally ‘better’ or ‘worse’ than another,” wrote the authors. “Both default profiles outlined here carry historically derived cultural wisdom and have been adaptive and useful across a wide range of situations in the past.” 

Markus’s coauthors include APS Fellow Yukiko Uchida (Kyoto University) and APS Fellow Jeanne Tsai, Angela Yang, and Amrita Maitreyi of Stanford. 

The team synthesized literature from mainstream media, reports, quotes from high-level public figures, and analyses from journalists, academics, and other commentators to demonstrate how cultural defaults were apparent in the public messaging of each country’s COVID response.  

“We demonstrate why particular pandemic behaviors were rational and made sense in one cultural context but were much less so in another,” the authors wrote. “Our argument is that these cultural defaults, especially when considered together, could have forecast many of the striking differences in pandemic responses and outcomes between the U.S. and the East Asian countries that are the focus here.”  

In the final section of the paper, Markus and colleagues address how policymakers can identify and consider cultural defaults when planning how to respond to urgent global crises such as climate change.  

“The need to understand not only that culture matters but also how and why it matters to everyday lived experience is in the immediate public interest and more pressing now than ever,” Markus and colleagues wrote.  

In a commentary published alongside the report, Sara Cody considered her own role as director of public health for the Santa Clara Public Health Department in California during the pandemic.  

“Many of the challenges we faced as the pandemic wore on likely reflect the cultural defaults related to individualism and/or independence as described in the paper,” she wrote. “I also recognize that many of the actions that I took and the way we saw our work in our Emergency Operations center also reflect cultural defaults very particular to the U.S.” 

second commentary from Ichiro Kawachi, a professor of social epidemiology at Harvard University, describes the paper as an important step forward in our understanding of the public health response to pandemic. Kawachi points out that cultural defaults do not operate in a vacuum but are constantly reinforced and manipulated by vested interests. 

“Instead of resigning ourselves to the inexorable power of cultural defaults in influencing public opinion and decision-making, preparing ourselves for future crises demands that we take purposeful action to expose the manipulation of public discourse by vested interests and to educate the polity to resist ingrained habits of thinking, feeling, and acting,” he wrote. 

Feedback on this article? Email apsobserver@psychologicalscience.org or login to comment.

References 

Cody, S. (2024). COVID and cultural defaults: A public health officer’s perspective. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 26(1). 

Kawachi, I. (2024). Culture as a social determinant of health. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 26(1). 

Markus, H. R., Tsai, J. L., Uchida, Y., Yang, A. M., & Maitreyi, A. (2024). Cultural Defaults in the Time of COVID: Lessons for the Future. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 25(2), 41-91. https://doi.org/10.1177/15291006241277810

 

 

 

Empowering young scientists to build a sustainable future



Young scientists, experts, and international leaders unite to address pressing global sustainability challenges



Cactus Communications

Glimpses from the 2024 Global Young Academy (GYA) Asian Event – Global Ï€ Roundtable 

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In alignment with the initiatives and goals of the United Nations, the GYA in collaboration with other organizations hosted the 2024 GYA Asian Event – Global Ï€ Roundtable in Wenzhou, China, from November 28th to 30th 2024. Young scientists and international leaders from different parts of the world gathered to address the pressing challenges of climate change. Four parallel session meetings delved into various challenges faced and discussed plausible innovative strategies to build an improved and sustainable future.

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Credit: Organizing committee of the 2024 GYA Asian Event




As the world faces the pressing challenge of climate change, global and national organizations are on the constant lookout for strategies to combat this concern. In this vein, world leaders adopted the ‘Pact for the Future,’ including a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations as annexes, at the ‘Summit of the Future’ held at the United Nations (UN) Headquarters in September 2024.

To align with the UN initiatives, the Global Young Academy (GYA), the International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals (CBAS), China Association for International Science and Technology Cooperation, the WYSS Global Ï€ Community, and the Qingke Museum of Natural History, hosted ‘The Global Young Academy Asian Event-Global Ï€ Roundtable 2024’. The event began with opening addresses by distinguished guests. Mr. Siddharth Chatterjee, The UN Resident Coordinator, shared his admiration and stated, “China has demonstrated the power of multilateral cooperation in promoting sustainability and bridging the development gaps”; Mr. Erik Solheim, President of the European Center for Asia and former UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of the UN Environment Program, emphasized the need for global cooperation to drive sustainable development; Professor Ada E. Yonath, Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry (2009), and Professor Peter Sachsenmeier, Academician of the German National Academy of Science and Engineering, University of Oxford respectively delivered the keynote speeches.

The opening ceremony concluded with the launch of the Qingkepai Science and Technology Innovation Alliance, a global platform aimed at connecting young scientists and innovators to accelerate the application of scientific research.

Aligned with the event's themes, four parallel session meetings were held at the 600-year-old Alum Mine Industrial Heritage Site in Cangnan. Representatives of international organizations, young scientists, entrepreneurs, and engineers from around the world gathered in Fanshan to explore and discuss how to address global environmental challenges and promote the achievement of sustainable development goals. Participants also visited the Fossil Museum and the Alum Mine Industrial Heritage Site.

The Bio2Bio session meeting sparked discussions on combining heritage conservation with sustainable development, especially through the GYA's “Bio2Bio” initiative, which aims to preserve biodiversity amid climate change and human impact.

The roundtable further explored the concept of “Resilient Cities” and discussed how cities may adapt to climate change. The conversations centered on utilizing geology and urban planning to create cities that are resilient to natural disasters and extreme environmental conditions.

The "Sustainable Development Resources" session brought together experts from China and Europe to discuss the vital role of mineral resources and geological sciences in advancing global sustainability. The dialogue stressed on the importance of international cooperation in resource management and environmental protection.

In the "Basic Science and Public Communication" session, experts explored strategies to bridge the gap between research and society, emphasizing the integration of art and culture in scientific communication.

This event witnessed young researchers across the globe committed to collaborated research and innovation to build an improved and sustainable future.

For more information, please visit https://www.globalpi.net/nd.jsp?id=63


Parallel session meetings of the 2024 Global Young Academy (GYA) Asian Event – Global Ï€ Roundtable 


SILVER LINING EMOLUMENTS

Democrat investment effect spooks corporate raiders



Having Democratic lawmakers as shareholders discourages financial activists from targeting a company




University of Texas at Austin




Stock investments by politicians have long drawn public scrutiny. Under a 2012 law, members of the U.S. Congress must disclose transactions over a $1,000 threshold. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were criticized for trading in everything from remote work technologies to telemedicine.

But less attention has been paid to what companies might gain from having politicians as shareholders. New research from Texas McCombs finds one indirect benefit: It might insulate companies from activist investors such as Carl Icahn or Nelson Peltz, who press for changes in their operations to drive up stock prices.

Timothy Werner, professor of business, government, and society, found that having shareholders who are Democratic members of Congress tends to discourage such investors.

Typically, he says, “An activist investor’s main strategy is to come into a firm, cut costs, and effect changes in the hopes of quickly driving up shareholder value or stock price. Then, they sell and exit the firm.”

Often, their cuts include corporate social responsibility (CSR) or environmental, social, and governance (ESG) programs. Democratic politicians are more likely to be concerned about such initiatives, whether because of their own ideological bents or because they want to appear associated with companies that support such causes.

Activist investors can find out whether Democratic politicos are shareholders from public investment disclosures, as well as websites and social media feeds that track politicians’ investments. They’ll tend to steer away from such companies, Werner theorized, to avoid public battles with Democrats, who are more likely to fight cuts to CSR and ESG.

“If you look nationwide, if you look at the most recent presidential campaign, there’s been a real emergence of a partisan divide around corporate social responsibility and ESG,” Werner says.

To test his theory, with co-authors Mark DesJardine of Dartmouth College and Wei Shi of the University of Miami, Werner looked at data on politicians’ investments in S&P 1500 companies from 2004 to 2018. He correlated them with challenges to those companies by activist investors.

The researchers found:

  • Having even one Democratic politician as a shareholder decreased the likelihood of an activist challenge 10%.
  • The presence of a highly prominent Democrat reduced these chances further.
  • So did the presence of a more Democratic-leaning board of directors.

The research did not find an effect from having Republican politicians as shareholders, Werner says, because they tend to be less interested in regulating businesses and less likely to scare off financial activists.

His findings don’t mean that companies should court individual lawmakers to invest, he says. That would invite ethical concerns and public scrutiny. It’s safer to stick with traditional relationship-building efforts, such as lobbying.

Is the Democratic deterrence effect helpful for average investors? Werner says it depends on their financial and ideological goals. Some don’t want to dissuade activist investors, because they can encourage fiscal discipline and boost stock prices in the short run.

But an investor who cares about CSR and ESG may welcome the effect, he says. “If someone’s thinking about the social and environmental performance as well, and they’re willing to make a trade-off in terms of financial gain, they might be happy to see these folks deterred.”

Shareholder Activism and the Deterrence Effect of Democratic Politician Shareholders” is published inOrganization Science.

Story by Suzi Morales

SPAGYRIC HERBALISM

Substances extracted from the Annona squamosa leaf have analgesic and anti-arthritic potential, study reveals



Researchers tested the effects of the plant’s methanolic extract and an isolated alkaloid substance, palmatine, on mice. The results were promising.



Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

Substances extracted from the Annona squamosa leaf have analgesic and anti-arthritic potential, study reveals 

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Annona squamosa is already used medicinally in several countries and is used in folk medicine to treat pain and arthritis 

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Credit: Marcos José Salvador




In Brazil, researchers have identified substances with analgesic, anti-inflammatory, anti-hyperalgesic (against persistent pain) and anti-arthritic activity in the leaves of Annona squamosa, a tree popularly known in the country as fruta-do-conde or pinha. The results of the research, supported by FAPESP through five projects (09/05992-614/17436-915/03726-816/06407-3 and 21/09693-5), were published in the journal Pharmaceuticals.

The work involved scientists from the Federal University of Grande Dourados (UFGD), the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and São Paulo State University (UNESP). The group evaluated the plant’s methanolic extract (methanol is used as a solvent and then removed by evaporation to obtain a dry extract) and an isolated substance called palmatine.

As the authors explain, Annona squamosa is already used medicinally in several countries and is used in folk medicine to treat pain and arthritis. Several pharmacological properties have been observed, such as gastroprotective, antibacterial, antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties. It represents a possible alternative to the main pharmacological treatments for pain, opioid analgesics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, whose prolonged use can cause various side effects such as addiction, ulcers and cardiovascular thrombotic events. It can also be an alternative to the main anti-inflammatory drugs, such as glucocorticoid analogs and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, which in chronic treatment can lead to adrenal insufficiency and insulin resistance, among other problems.

“In view of this, the aim of the study was to investigate the analgesic, anti-arthritic and anti-inflammatory potential of the methanolic extract and palmatine obtained from Annona squamosa,” says Marcos José Salvador, full professor at the Department of Plant Biology at UNICAMP and co-author of the research.

To do this, the leaves of the plant were dried and turned into powder. The substances to be analyzed were then extracted. The methanolic extract and the alkaloid palmatine were administered orally to mice and studied in several experimental models, including pleurisy (inflammation of the pleura, the membranes that line the lungs and chest wall) induced by a substance called carrageenan; joint inflammation induced by zymosan; and mechanical hyperalgesia (increased sensitivity to painful stimuli) induced by TNF (tumor necrosis factor, a signaling protein produced by defense cells that plays a crucial role in regulating the immune response).

“The results showed that the methanolic extract and palmatine extracted from A. squamosa have analgesic and anti-inflammatory potential. Palmatine also has anti-hyperalgesic properties, which may involve inhibition of the tumor necrosis factor-mediated pathway,” explains Salvador. “We also concluded that palmatine may be one of the components responsible for the anti-arthritic properties of the plant.”

The conclusions of the analysis are very relevant and help to prove the therapeutic effects of the samples analyzed and to elucidate their mechanisms of action, which are not yet fully understood. However, further studies are needed before they can be used in practice to treat diseases.

“Further studies are needed to assess whether, in other formulations, the effects and pharmacokinetic properties of palmatine would be altered,” says the researcher, noting that more research is also needed to assess the toxicity of the compounds and the doses needed to achieve the therapeutic effect for clinical use.

About FAPESP

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration.

 

 

Scientists document rich biodiversity along underexplored Chilean coastline



An international team maps four unnamed underwater canyons, explores nearly 20 methane seep ecosystems thriving without sunlight, and uncovers a dazzling array of otherworldly creatures, including suspected new species.



Schmidt Ocean Institute

Cusk-eels swim around a tubeworm mound near a methane seep 

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Congrio colorado (Genypterus chilensus) cusk-eels swim around a tubeworm mound near a methane seep. These fish — a commercially important fish highly valued in Chile — have been observed around reefs and soft-bottom mangrove ecosystems, but the importance of chemosynthetic ecosystems in sustaining their populations has not been previously observed. Credit: ROV SuBastian / Schmidt Ocean Institute

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Credit: Credit: ROV SuBastian / Schmidt Ocean Institute




An international team of scientists on board a recent Schmidt Ocean Institute R/V Falkor (too) expedition surveyed nearly 20 methane seeps, some of which are new discoveries, and four submarine canyon systems previously never before seen by humans. They found an abundance of animals, including possibly 60 new species or more, living in surprisingly diverse ecosystems off the Chilean coast, including commercially valuable fish swimming in seep areas. The 55-day expedition traveled from Valparaiso to Punta Arenas, Chile, exploring the ocean from the central to the southern coastline of the country. 

The cruise, the first in the region to use a remotely operated vehicle, or ROV, to transmit imagery in real-time, was co-led by Drs. Jeffrey Marlow of Boston University, USA, Patricia Esquete of the University of Aveiro, Portugal, and Eulogio Soto from the University of Valparaiso, Chile. The team also used sonar-based bubble mapping, bathymetric mapping, and measurements of in situ methane concentration to map canyons and locate methane seeps. The work included researchers from Chile, the United States, Portugal, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy. 

Methane seeps are chemosynthetic environments where methane bubbles up from the seafloor, feeding microbes that, in turn, support an array of life. While clues from water chemistry measurements and images from camera tows taken on previous expeditions to the region suggested the presence of some seeps off of Chile, many sites had not been fully surveyed and sampled before. In addition, several seep sites were entirely new to science. Some were in shallow waters, others in deep waters; some were in rocky areas, others were in sediment.

“I was most impressed by how different the methane seeps in this area are from those we’ve studied in North America — and how distinct the sites we visited were from one day to the next,” said Marlow, a microbial ecologist who served as the expedition’s chief scientist. “The fact that we came across so many seeps in such a relatively small area suggests that they’re pervasive along the Chilean coast, serving as hubs for biodiversity and elemental cycling on a vast scale.”

One observation the team was particularly impressed by was abundant red cusk-eels called congrio colorado (Genypterus chilensus) — a commercially important fish that is highly valued in Chile — swimming in and around an 892-square-meter (9600-square-foot) tubeworm mound near a methane seep. Poet and Nobel Laureate Pablo Neruda celebrated this iconic Chilean fish; upon returning to the country from exile in 1954, he wrote an ode to the eel as a celebration of his home country and life. 

While these fish have been observed around reefs and soft-bottom mangrove ecosystems, there has been little documentation of their behavior swimming near methane seeps. Scientists require further research to understand the species’ relationship with methane seeps and to determine if these environments are essential to sustaining their populations. 

“These exploratory expeditions are incredible — and essential — opportunities for the science community to improve our understanding of the planet,” said Esquete. “After extensive sampling, we suspect our team has found at least 60 species new to science and will be working over the next few years to confirm this.” 

The team explored four unnamed submarine canyons in southern Chile for the first time, mapping them to a high resolution. The largest of the canyons is approximately 2000 square kilometers (770 square miles) and the deepest is over 3000 meters deep (1.86 miles). Submarine canyons are critical ecosystems that connect land to the open ocean. The rocky canyon walls provide structures for habitat-building animals like glass sponges and deep-sea corals, which support species from tiny bristle stars to octopus. 

An additional methane seep was discovered in one of the canyons near Chile’s triple junction, a place on the seafloor where three tectonic plates meet. 

Other notable observations included large congregations of Humboldt Squid feeding near the seeps, a sighting of a glowing anglerfish scientists are still working to identify, massive chemosynthetic clam beds, and a shimmering polychaete worm that garnered the attention of millions on social media during the expedition. 

“This expedition is yet another example of the tremendous value of bringing together cross-disciplinary science teams and cutting-edge technology to little known regions of our global Ocean,” said Dr. Jyotika Virmani, executive director of Schmidt Ocean Institute. "The diverse marine life swimming contentedly in this geologically interesting ecosystem was beautiful to watch — a strong reminder that what is out of sight should perhaps not be out of mind."