In Jamaica's Rio Cobre oil spill case, activists and civil society say there are outstanding issues

The controversial legal conclusion notwithstanding, this matter remains unresolved in the eyes of environmentalists and governance advocates


Written by Emma Lewis

Posted 22 December 2024

Feature image via Canva Pro.    

This article was first published on Global Voices’ contributor Emma Lewis’ blog; an edited version appears below with permission.

We are not satisfied: that is the message from a large group of civil society organisations and individuals in an Open Letter to Jamaica's Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) regarding the extraordinary behaviour of the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA), the government agency responsible for enforcing justice with regard to environmental crimes.

NEPA’s announcement in court on November 27, 2024, that it was withdrawing criminal charges against Trade Winds Citrus Limited for a December 2023 oil spill in the Rio Cobre that affected the water supply of neighbouring communities, was greeted with surprise and condemnation from many corners of society. The media started talking about a “secret deal” between NEPA and the company; the details of the mediation agreement were not even revealed to the judge in court because of a non-disclosure clause.

Subsequently, NEPA Chairman Weldon Madden was asked to resign, while Matthew Samuda, the minister with responsibility for the environment, issued a statement that “the Government of Jamaica is not satisfied that the issue was handled at the Board leadership level with the required standards of transparency and openness.” Under considerable pressure, details of the Mediation Settlement Agreement were finally published on NEPA’s website, where a Chronology of Events from the oil spill can also be found.

Jamaica's rivers — including the Rio Cobre — have often been under siege from industrial pollution. In 2021, The Rio Cobre suffered a spill of caustic effluent from the nearby bauxite plant – and this incident was not the first time. The West Indies Alumina Company (Windalco), which runs the plant, was a repeat offender that “received multiple breach notices” and were, at the time, “defendants in a legal case filed by NEPA over a 2019 discharge into the river which resulted in a massive fish kill and several persons falling ill.” Windalco later tried to restock the river with fish, but the transparency of that process was also called into question.

In this most recent case, there are a number of issues arising that warrant further investigation. NEPA’s comment, relayed by Minister Samuda, that it determined withdrawing the case was justified based on “the limited material impact of the incident and the comprehensive cleanup undertaken” has given some environmentalists pause. Whether the damage caused by the oil spill was extensive or not, and regardless of how many fish were killed or not, the issue goes beyond that. Trade Winds Citrus Limited committed an environmental crime, which NEPA was prosecuting with the go-ahead from the DPP since the crime does not amount to a few dead fish; rather, it has an impact on nearby communities and the ecosystem in general, which many feel were hardly taken into consideration.

Will this be NEPA’s modus operandi going forward? And if it is “business as usual,” then what does that consist of? The Open Letter, signed by 39 groups and individuals, including the Jamaica Environment Trust, Friends of Rio Cobre, Freedom Imaginaries, Jamaicans for Justice, Stand Up For Jamaica, Jamaica Accountability Meter Portal, and Jamaica Climate Change Youth Council, outlined these and other concerns to the DPP.

“Under the fiat granted by your office,” it said, “the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA), the administrative arm of the National Environment and Planning Agency (NRCA), is tasked with prosecuting environmental crimes. NEPA’s decision, however, to pursue mediation in this case raises serious questions about its commitment to environmental justice. We now urgently request a comprehensive investigation by your office into NRCA/NEPA’s actions. This is critical to restoring public confidence in environmental law enforcement and ensuring that agencies with prosecutorial powers act at all times in the public’s interest.”

Some of the issues identified included the fact that mediation was pursued in this case. “[I]ntended for compromise between private parties,” it said, the approach was “unsuitable for holding environmental offenders accountable, especially where there is significant public impact and public interest. It undermines deterrence and signals leniency toward environmental crimes.” The letter also criticised NEPA's narrow focus, which “prioritised the fish kill while disregarding the broader impacts of the oil spill on the river ecology, river users and the surrounding communities.”

Furthermore, NEPA dropped the case “based on vague assurances from TWCL, including commitments to best practices and collaboration, which lack clear enforcement mechanisms.” The signatories took this as a demonstration of “a lack of interest in prosecuting environmental crimes and a lack of intent to hold environmental offenders accountable within the criminal justice system,” especially when coupled with the fact that the agreement prevents “legal action by either party” and prohibits NEPA from assisting communities who may want to bring action against TWCL. This clause, it maintained, “stifles the communities’ and the public’s rights to seek justice, undermining and betraying public trust in environmental governance and the administration of justice.”

The group statement also alleges a lack of transparency or meaningful consultation with the affected communities, an exclusion that “denies stakeholders of their right to participate in the resolution of a matter directly impacting their lives and environment. The inclusion of a confidentiality clause in the mediation agreement, intended to shield its terms from public and judicial scrutiny, is unacceptable given the public nature and significant interest in this offence.”

The controversial legal conclusion notwithstanding, this matter remains unresolved in the eyes of environmentalists and governance advocates: “The public deserves full transparency and public accountability regarding NEPA’s decision-making processes and assurance that environmental laws will be enforced openly, vigorously and with due regard for environmental law standards, principles and best practices.

“Environmental crimes demand robust legal action — not alternative resolutions that fail to deliver justice or protection of natural resources. We urge your office to revisit this case, investigate NEPA’s actions, and undertake a long overdue broader review of NEPA’s prosecutorial effectiveness to strengthen environmental governance.”

PAKISTAN

WILDLIFE: AN ELEPHANT AND HER TYRE

Muzhira Amin 

December 22, 2024

DAWN

Madhubala with her tyre at Karachi Zoo | Four Paws

It was the last Tuesday of November and there was an air of anticipation at Karachi’s sprawling Safari Park. Outside the elephant enclosure, a curious crowd of reporters and activists stood with cell phones and cameras out, exchanging whispers. Madhubala, the lone elephant left at Karachi Zoo, had just been shifted to these bigger premises and was going to be making her first public appearance here.

On the other side of the fence, as the doors opened and the way was cleared, in walked Madhubala. Oblivious to the fanfare around her, she immediately latched on to a carefully placed tyre inside her new night room.

Madhubala, which literally means ‘sweet girl’, is named after the iconic Indian actress, just like her sister Noor Jehan — with whom she shared a pen at the zoo — was named after Pakistan’s melody queen. Until Madhubala’s relocation, the 17-year-old African elephant had been living in solitary confinement at the Karachi Zoo for over a year, since the death of Noor Jehan.

The tyre is all she brought along with her from the zoo, her old home — after all, it was her best friend.



Until her reunion with her long-separated sisters Malika and Sonia, lonely Madhubala’s best friend at Karachi Zoo had become a rubber tyre…

Madhubala has a very special relationship with her tyre. The bond was forged after the death of her long-time companion and sister Noor Jehan. Witnessing up close her sibling’s demise, and the events leading to it, had left Madhubala depressed, traumatised and, most concerningly, lonely.

AN ANTIDOTE TO GRIEF

Having spent a lot of time with the elephants, Mahera Omar, filmmaker and co-founder of the Pakistan Animal Welfare Society (PAWS), remembers all too clearly the circumstances around the last days of Noor Jehan and the effects it had on her sibling. Noor Jehan had fallen into a cement pond and could not get back up. Animal activists and caregivers had turned up the zoo to help in the recovery efforts as Noor Jehan’s situation became public knowledge.

“A thunderous clank of iron made us turn our heads towards Madhubala,” recalls Omar. She had crashed with all her might into the gate holding her inside her night cage at Karachi Zoo. “We knew Madhubala was angry and upset,” she tells Eos.

What followed over the next 10 days was agonising for the two elephants as well as animal lovers. “As Noor Jehan lay helpless, we watched Madhubala get increasingly restless, disturbed by the swarms of people that had descended on to the spectacle of animal suffering, the noise of the crane, the altercations between the zoo management and animal lovers,” she recalls.

In the long days of grief and loneliness that followed Noor Jehan’s passing, the tyre was where Madhubala found emotional support. “She would often be standing next to her sister’s grave, withdrawn and quiet, the tyre nearby,” Omar continues.

Soon, the tyre became her best friend. Both of them were inseparable. It was with her everywhere she went: the night room, the enclosure and even the storage area. She showed it off to visitors as well.

The tyre would be ever-present, just within her reach, even when she was in the presence of animal lovers and the team from Four Paws, a Vienna-based global animal welfare organisation. Four Paws had previously facilitated the relocation of Kaavan, dubbed as the world’s loneliest elephant, from a zoo in Islamabad to sanctuary in Cambodia. And it was engaged to help with Madhubala’s rehabilitation as well.

This is why, when the talks of Madhubala’s relocation to Safari Park finally materialised, Four Paws decided to bring the tyre with her to the new home.

“The decision was taken to provide her with comfort in the new environment and a sense of security,” Pia Einheimler, the Four Paws field mission coordinator tells Eos. “The first thing Madhubala did while entering her new enclosure at the Safari Park was to turn around, grab the tyre and place it next to her… it really functions as a comforting toy,” she points out.

Even when out exploring her new home, she took the tyre along with her as an all-time companion. Little did Madhubala know that what she was soon going to find would be far more precious than her tyre. A heartwarming interaction was waiting for her, just a few footsteps from her night room.

A FAMILY REUNION

When she was still a calf, back in 2009, Madhubala and her three sisters were cruelly captured by poachers in Tanzania. Their mother was shot dead in front of their eyes. The baby elephants, on the other hand, were packed up and found their way to Pakistan.

Two of them — Madhubala and Noor Jehan — came to the zoo, while Malika and Sonia were sent to Safari Park. More than a decade later, the siblings were reuniting, courtesy of Noor Jehan’s death. Madhubala, however, was unaware of this. Itwas a surprise that was revealed to her a day after the relocation to the Safari Park.

Einheimler described the sisters’ reunion as an emotional moment for everyone who witnessed it.

Madhubala was out exploring the outdoor enclosure of her new home, while Malika and Sonia stood in their night room, which was separated by a fence. But they could see each other. Her sisters were showing a lot of interest in their sibling but Madhubala was busy playing with her tyre. When the last few obstructions between the siblings were finally removed, Sonia, the braver one, crossed over to greet Madhubala, with Malika in tow.

Before Madhubala arrived at Safari Park, Malika was the matriarch — the leader among the two resident elephants. According to research, when confronted with a new elephant, matriarchs often become defensive towards them, to protect themselves and their family members. None of that unfolded at the Safari Park though, as Malika and Sonia immediately recognised Madhubala’s shining eyes.

“The three sisters gently touched each other with their trunks, exploring new smells and moving together with a sense of calm and friendliness. We could feel they remembered each other,” says Einheimler.

And then something beautiful happened. Madhubala placed her beloved tyre in front of Malika, a present for her siblings. It was an invitation for them to share her valuable tyre with them. Moments later, Malika turned her back to Madhubala, an offer to her sibling to become the new matriarch of the now three-member herd.

Following the exchange, the sisters made their way to a nearby pond and had their first drink together. The tyre, on the other hand, stayed back inside Madhubala’s night room — a relic of the past.

“The tyre is still very important for Madhubala, but it is losing its emotional attachment bit by bit,” Einheimler continues. “Now, Madhubala has transformed into a completely different elephant. She is kind, friendly and playful,” she adds.

Madhubala’s transformation is visible, as much from her demeanour and interactions as it is from the glint in her eyes, says Einheimler. Perhaps, it also shows the appreciation a pachyderm has for being treated in a more humane manner.

The writer is a member of staff. X: @NMuzhira

Published in Dawn, EOS, December 22nd, 2024


Read more


Free from zoo captivity, Madhubala reunites with sisters at Safari Park after 15 years

Madhubala finds three’s company!

Madhubala to reunite with sisters after 15 years in Karachi

EXHIBITION: SACRED FORMS

Ayesha Majeed 

 December 22, 2024  

DAWN

Agate Pendant


Calligraphy continues to be one of the key symbols and most fascinating aspects of Islamic culture and identity. It began with the writing of the Quran in the Kufic script. Later, classical and contemporary calligraphic styles evolved, and Islamic calligraphy expanded and developed to an unparalleled level of sophistication and usage.

Traditionally, calligraphy relied on the qalam [pen] and ink. But, with the passage of time, it expanded to encompass other mediums, as it was incorporated into architecture and in objects made of wood, metal, glass, ceramic, stones, fabric etc.

A visual representation of this creativity, beauty, and the aesthetic of formation and ornamentation was recently on display at the Ocean Art Gallery in Lahore. The gallery invited viewers to explore different calligraphic art forms immaculately presented by Shakil Ismail, a Karachi-based artist.

In his series of geometric-shaped calligraphic sculptures, Ismail has used scripts crafted out of rigid metallic surfaces, depicting the word ‘Allah’ in a repetitive manner. Drawing inspiration from the work of the old master Ibn Muqalla, Ismail has used a total of four different khat [calligraphy styles], with the most dominant being Khat-i-Sals. The flow and fluidity of the calligraphy is undeniable, exuding a certain grace.

Metal, glass and semi-precious stones are fused with calligraphic elements in Shakil Ismail’s singular creations

According to the artist, after repeated trials with electroforming techniques on metal, he developed his unique style of moulding metal surfaces through cold-welding with ice cubes and chemical currents. To enhance the beauty of these pieces, Ismail incorporated cast-glass intertwined with semi-precious stones in a range of beautiful colours.

Iqra



The strength of the sculptures lies in the integration of metallic elements, which imbue the work with a sense of permanence. Unlike paper, which can age and fade, metal retains its integrity, preserving the elegance of the calligraphy in its original form. The use of metal in the calligraphy also symbolises timelessness, strength and durability.

Ismail’s other artistic expression is his use of the cast-glass technique for wall hangings. Ismail creates the glass material by recycling pharmaceutical and beauty product bottles, melting them at temperatures of around 1,400 degrees Celsius. The brown glass, for example, is made from crushing and melting children’s cough syrup bottles. Numerous brightly coloured calligraphic canvases were also exhibited, showcasing a blend of spirituality and artistic brilliance.

For his handcrafted wearable art, Ismail drew inspiration from the ancient tradition of wearing naqsh or taweez — amulets or talismans — that were, and in some cases still are, worn for protection and blessings. He designed immaculate and contemporary jewellery pieces — including bracelets, rings and pendants — crafted from gold-plated bronze and silver. Each piece is studded with semi-precious stones such as marjan, jade, zircon, amethyst, ruby, agate, glass crystals, tourmaline and topaz.

Allah



The pendants, in particular, feature semi-precious stones caged in metal wiring. One pendant showcases an intricately chequered design carved from gold-plated metal and studded with a large, round topaz stone. The artist’s work seems to be inspired by Greek and Roman jewellery designs.

Through his innovative use of materials and his mastery of calligraphy, Ismail not only honours the rich traditions of Islamic art, but also pushes the boundaries of contemporary artistic expression.

‘Sculpting Words, Adorning Souls’ was on display at the Ocean Art Gallery in Lahore from December 3-7, 2024

The writer is an art critic and artist based in Lahore. She can be reached at ayeshamajeed2015@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, EOS, December 22nd, 2024

Beyond schools

Muna Khan 

December 22, 2024

DAWN

The writer is a journalism instructor


IN 2019, when I was teaching full time, our institute collaborated with a university in Canada in their Global Reporting Programme where three of our students, along with students in Kenya and the US, were selected to work on an academic year-long project. The three students and I would log on at 9pm on Zoom — before that became a thing — for a three-hour weekly class. That year’s theme was on how new curricula were transforming students around the world. Stories focused on education issues in Norway, Kenya, Nepal and for us, Pakistan’s efforts to include madressahs in the mainstream. The first semester we studied/ taught journalism preparing for our time in the field in the aforementioned countries, and then we were meant to go to Canada for post-production in March. But then, the pandemic happened and everything changed.

Since madressah registration is back in the limelight, I wanted to present a personal perspective from that academic year spent on our story. We instructors from all universities helped students flesh the story from so many angles — the history, the politics, the politicians, the opposition, the curriculum, but, most importantly, the students, past and present. The collaborative approach ensured no story was done through a Western or Eastern lens and to teach that reporting is not about parachuting into a country with minimum knowledge and reliance on fixers.

The students on the Pakistan story spent considerable time with SS, a young father of three, a madressah graduate whose three boys (then aged eight, 11 and 12) were also enrolled in a madressah; his six-year-old daughter did not go to any school. SS supported the push for the Single National Curriculum (SNC) and hoped the madressahs would incorporate math, English and science into their curriculum so his sons had better opportunities. His boys told us they wanted to become a doctor, army officer and engineer and their father was willing to put in the extra hours to help them fulfil their dreams. He himself wanted to become a nurse but couldn’t fulfil his dream because he had only studied religion. His parents, who opposed madressah reforms, had no regrets about sending their son to seminaries.

Many of the men who were pro-reform have since reneged.

Students at Jamia Binoria Alamiya seemed to have had a different experience, especially the many foreign students we met from countries as diverse as the US and Thailand. Everyone received both religious and (for lack of better word) regular education; they could even study Mandarin. Here young Pakistani girls told us they wanted to become doctors, pilots and engineers. We spent a good time discussing the school’s transformation with Mufti Muhammad Naeem, and his son, Noman who took over after his father’s passing in 2020. This madressah has been pitched as a model one and was a favourite destination for foreign dignitaries and reporters when Pakistan needed to show not all madressahs foster hate.

I was told to dress appropriately when visiting Mufti Taqi Usmani at the beautiful campus of Darul Uloom when I went with my male student. This was a pre-interview meeting where we talked about our project prior to the Canadians’ field visit. In that meeting, he did not address me and replied to my student. He, like everyone we met for this story, supported the mainstreaming of madressahs. Everyone would add that their institutions were not the source of contention or “problem” — I understood this as code for terror camps. We also flew to Islamabad to meet then education minister Shafqat Mahmood who discussed both the SNC and the madressah reforms, saying all students needed equal access to education and oppor­-tunities.

I’m giving you an overview of all stakeholders’ comments because, as the saying goes, this isn’t your first rodeo. You’ve long heard it­­erations of these co­­mmitments to ‘ref­o­­rm’/ ‘mainstream’/ ‘fix the problem once and for all on our terms’, etc., but you also know how deep the trust deficit is. Many of the men we met who were pro-reforms have since reneged. There are attempts to resolve this issue before it is taken to the streets where, you know as well as I, what will happen next.

As we watch to see how this plays out, the children of SS will not be near to having their dreams fulfilled.

In 2019, I suspected our story would have no ending. My co-instructors said it didn’t need to, we needed to report on the efforts, the challenges, the promises. How do you report that the powerful make promises they know they can’t (won’t) keep because that promise can be used as leverage later? People are pawns here.

We function in survival mode; it is the only one we know. We can’t imagine what thriving — growing, developing, prospering — looks like. Many reporters have been telling this story in the hope that one day it will change and we’ll have a different ending.

X: @LedeingLady

Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2024

Bold action to rescue SDGs 

The ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — launched in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all — are slipping out of reach.

Mohamed Yahya | Bilal Azhar Kiyani

December 21, 2024

DAWN


AS the New Year beckons, and the world begins to count down the final six years of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030, our shared vision of decisive progress towards sustainable development everywhere stands at a precipice. The ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — launched in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all — are slipping out of reach.

In recognition of this grave danger, UN Secretary General António Guterres has declared a “global emergency”, underscoring the urgent need for bold and transformative actions. The recently adopted UN Pact for the Future provides a renewed framework for re-energising Agenda 2030. Specifically, member states have reaffirmed their commitment to closing the SDG financing gap, through scaling up official development assistance, combating illicit financial flows, and mobilising domestic and private resources.

Pakistan exemplifies the struggle of low- and middle-income countries trapped in a web of debt, climate vulnerability, and under-investment in human development. Ranked 137th out of 166 nations in the UN Sustainable Development Report 2024, Pakistan’s SDG performance is off track. While modest improvements are noted in some areas, eight out of the 17 SDGs show stagnation, and three are regressing.


Gains that are made in human development terms are literally washed away by the effects of climate change on a regular basis.

An estimated 40 per cent of Pakistan’s population — approximately 97 million people — lives in poverty, with women disproportionately bearing the impact. Twenty-six million children do not go to school and half of the women population cannot read or write. Forty per cent of children under five are stunted.

These figures represent the enormous challenges Pakistan has to overcome to achieve sustainable development and improve the living standards of its people. While Pakistan has made progress in 2024 towards macroeconomic stabilisation, with inflation dropping to a six-year low, the financing gap for achieving the SDGs in the country remains staggering: a conservative projection puts it at around $60 billion annually, which is 16pc of GDP. The price tag of turning such indicators of deprivation around, and meeting the SDGs, dwarfs the country’s revenue base.

Without alternative sources of finance, we fear Agenda 2030 will not be accomplished.

As of September 2024, Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities stood at an estimated $308.2bn, representing 81.2pc of GDP. Of this, total external debt and liabilities amounted to $133.4bn. Debt servicing costs the government over half of its annual budget, leaving little room for investments in development priorities. Every dollar allocated to debt repayment is a dollar denied to building schools, improving healthcare, or mitigating the impacts of climate change. These issues are critical not only to human development in Pakistan, but also to the country’s future economic growth and prosperity.

Pakistan’s challenges are compounded by the global climate crisis it did not create. Gains that are made in human development terms are literally washed away by the effects of climate change on a regular basis. Contributing less than 1pc to global emissions, Pakistan is among the top 10 nations that are most vulnerable to climate change. The devastating floods of 2022, which submerged more than 10pc of the country, served as a stark reminder of how the Global South bears the brunt of a crisis driven by the industrialised world. Pakistan is obliged to take on more debt to recover from, and attempt to build resilience to, disasters caused by consumption patterns far away, perpetuating a cycle of dependency and vulnerability.

In the face of its SDG financing gap, it is time to consider bold options.

A six-year standstill on the Pakistan government’s external debt repayments would be one pragmatic and morally compelling solution. It would free up an estimated $108bn, providing the fiscal breathing room needed to invest in re-energising Agenda 2030 in Pakistan. With these resources, Pakistan could widen social safety nets, lifting an estimated 10m out of extreme poverty;reduce maternal and infant mortality; improve schoolenrolment rates; andinvest in climate resilience to protect millions from future shocks.

Critics will argue that implementing a debt standstill is fraught with challenges. Multilateral creditors may resist, citing preferred creditor status. Bilateral lenders may be reluctant to create a precedent. Private creditors may fear losses on bonds.

These concerns are valid, but not insurmountable. Indeed, the world came together during the Covid-19 crisis to implement not dissimilar debt standstills. Let us recognise that the remaining six-year window to deliver Agenda 2030 represents a crossroads that is equally perilous. And, of course, any debt standstill arrangement would require a robust governance framework be put in place to ensure that funds freed are transparently allocated to SDG priorities, with clear accountability mechanisms to ensure proper use.

Short of a full standstill, a break on interest payments can also be considered. Other countries have also experimented with “debt for development swap” arrangements.

The UN’s Pact for the Future provides a unique opportunity to align global priorities with the needs of vulnerable nations. Its call to mobilise resources comprehensively to galvanise progress towards achieving Agenda 2030 in this last six years must be heeded.

Let Pakistan breathe. Let it invest in its people and its future. And let this moment mark the beginning of a new era of global solidarity, where no nation is left behind in the quest for sustainable development. We are on the final stretch for the SDGs. It is time to be bold.

Mohamed Yahya is the United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator in Pakistan.

Bilal Azhar Kayani is a member of the National Assembly and the convener of the National Parliamentary Taskforce on SDGs.

Published in Dawn, December 21st, 2024

From Baku to Belem

Imaduddin Ahmed

Published December 22, 2024 
DAWN

The writer sits on the Liberal International Climate Justice Committee



MANY climate-vulnerable nations hoped for more at COP29. However, the text leaves an opportunity for Pakistan’s freshest minds to seize on behalf of those who have most to lose from climate change.

The final document reflects the challenges of a multilateral process fraught with competing interests, including within the 60-year-old coalition of 134 developing countries called the G77. The interests of oil-rich and prosperous nations within the Arab Group, for example, do not align with those of climate-vulnerable, developing nations such as Pakistan.

The Arab Group worried that a new formulation of the contributor base for climate finance would explicitly put them on the hook for providing and reporting on support to developing countries alongside traditional developed countries like the US, both because of their capability to provide finance and their attributable greenhouse gas emissions. Six of 10 countries with the highest per capita consumption-based CO emissions belong to the Arab Group. Four of those members have GDPs per capita higher than $30,000; two of them with higher per capita incomes than the UK, France and Japan.

At the technical level, the Arab Group negotiators with oil-producing Bolivia persuaded the G77 to lose a week of negotiation time by not engaging with the text proffered by the UN Secretariat in October. This directly undermined the interests of countries trying to survive the impacts of climate change. This loss in negotiating time meant that no time was spent discussing items in the October text: how much developed countries exclusively would be on the hook for, what proportion of climate finance should be in the form of grant equivalent terms, and what proportion of finance should be allocated to adaptation and loss and damage.


Every government can regulate to reduce default risk from climate impacts.

To prevent this from happening repeatedly, Pakistani diplomats must be alive to when the Arab Group is pushing an agenda that makes no sense for Pakistan or the majority of developed nation allies within the G77, and be ready to push back.

To the quantum: in 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen, countries set a $100 billion/year climate finance target for developed countries to mobilise for developing countries by 2020. That target was nominally surpassed for the first time in 2022. COP29 in Baku was about deciding what the new number would be. Two key numbers entered the text.

The public-based support goal for developing countries: $300bn/year to developing countries by 2035, without inflation indexing. It is this number that is most important for Pakistan’s resilience to and recovery from future floods, droughts and heatwaves as it does not predicate financing with a promise for profit. The number could represent at best a modest rise to, and at worst, a reduction of the ambition agreed to in 2009, depending on inflation. Moreover, unlike the previous commitment, this was not exclusively to come from developed countries. In theory, Pakistan and all developing countries are now invited to contribute to the core goal.

The investment aspiration into developing countries: $1.3 trillion per year, the number promoted by the Africa Group, reflecting the developing world’s climate finance needs today for adaptation, loss and damage, as well as low-carbon pathways to prosperity. This is a new target that is not yet tracked. Coupled with reference to a “Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T” in the final text that Colombia and Kenya championed, this represents Pakistan’s best hope of receiving the quantum of climate finance it needs, but it requires a market-oriented mindset.

As previously argued, for adaptation and resili­e­nce, every government can regulate to reduce default risk from climate impacts. They can require pension funds and insurance companies to invest in an insurable world by inv­esting into adaptation and resilience to manage disaster, as well as emissions reductions and removals to prevent disaster.

The Baku to Belem Roadmap need not begin from a tabula rasa. The UAE COP28 Global Climate Finance Framework, which has the signature of 15 developed and developing national governments, speaks of the re-channelling of inefficient subsidies and IMF Special Drawing Rights, emissions pricing, and debt-for-climate-swaps and other interventions that can help mobilise the scale of finance required.

The Pakistan government needs to enter the conversation now. We all know our ideal stated positions, but it is time to think practically. Pakistan will need to empower its most agile brains to draw up solutions with those who have shown leadership in this space: Kenya, Colombia, Barbados, France, the UK, Germany, and the troika of COP presidencies.


Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2024

PAKISTAN

Vulnerable vaccinators

DAWN
Editorial 

December 22, 2024 



THE campaign to eradicate polio from Pakistan cannot succeed unless the safety of vaccinators and security personnel on the front lines of this battle is guaranteed. According to one count, over 200 polio workers and police personnel have been martyred in the field since the 1990s. The latest tragedy occurred only a few days ago when a policeman guarding a polio team in KP’s Karak area was martyred. However, while militant violence forms a major part of the threat confronting polio teams, these vulnerable men and women face other forms of violence and harassment as well. For example, three members of a polio team were attacked in Karachi’s Korangi area on Friday when they approached a home to vaccinate children. A number of women, as well as men, savagely attacked the team with hammers and shovels, while police personnel accompanying the vaccinators were pelted with stones. Meanwhile, two men are being investigated for an earlier incident in which they locked up a female polio worker inside a Nazimabad flat when she arrived to administer vaccines.

For those who attack and harass polio teams, the law must be firm. No violence can be tolerated against these brave individuals who risk their lives in their efforts to eradicate the disease. When people see there is punishment for such violent behaviour, they may think twice before harming vaccinators and police. Along with legal action, the state needs to continue public awareness and community engagement campaigns to ensure refusals reduce. Particularly in urban and rural pockets where vaccine refusals are high, community elders and religious leaders need to amplify the message that all minors must be vaccinated. Pakistan cannot afford to be lax in its approach towards the security of vaccinators and the health of future generations. Therefore, those who harm vaccinators must be punished, while anti-vaccine propaganda needs to be countered with the facts.

Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2024

The Syrian impact

Muhammad Amir Rana 

December 22, 2024  

DAWN

THE triumph of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led resistance in Syria has further disturbed the geopolitical equilibrium in the Middle East and beyond. For Pakistan, this development should mean not only modifications in its diplomatic priorities but also careful evaluation of the country’s internal and regional security dynamics.

Pakistani fighters were not only involved in the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, they were also inspired by various Islamist militant movements, potentially influencing the militant landscape in the country and complicating the security challenge.

The HTS attempts to project a more moderate image to gain acceptance with its neighbours and international actors, including the US. In a recent interview with the BBC, its de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that Syria is exhausted by war and does not pose a threat to its neighbours or the West. However, a significant challenge for HTS remains managing internal and external jihadists.

Since 2017, HTS has effectively managed its foreign fighter allies. Aware of the challenges posed by foreign fighters, the organisation adopted a strategy of controlling both foreign and local fighters. It crushed certain factions, both local and foreign, while co-opting others, integrating them into its own structures, and renaming their units to obscure their foreign origins.


One cannot afford to disregard the implications of the events in Syria for Pakistan.

Nevertheless, Syria remains home to a diverse range of Islamist and jihadist factions, many of which played key roles in the HTS’ recent offensives. These factions — in case they become dissatisfied with the group’s plan for Syria — may encourage foreign fighters to align with them. But as of now these are assumptions, and the coming weeks will expose the direction of the situation.

One cannot afford to disregard the implications for Pakistan, whose own militant landscape is a complex one and prone to external influences. Changes in militant dynamics and actors from other regions often directly impact Pakistan, and in many instances, these developments reshape the character of militant movements in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. For example, when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emerged, it caused fissures within the ranks of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, leading to the rise of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and the formation of Jamaatul Ahrar, once a powerful breakaway faction of the TTP. In the same way, the Nusra Front’s formation triggered debates within Taliban and Al Qaeda ranks in Afghanistan, prompting calls for a shift in strategy to make their movements more inclusive and strengthen their political fronts.

The Afghan Taliban regime, along with close ally TTP, has welcomed the events in Syria and congratulated the HTS. However, their rival, the Islamic State, has issued a warning to the HTS. All this could have significant repercussions for us in Pakistan. The presence of Pakistani Shia fighters further complicates the picture, painting a worrisome scenario for the country’s internal security and regional stability.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Al Quds Force-backed Pakistani Shia militant group Zainebiyoun, which was initially formed to protect the Assad regime, still maintain a presence in Syria. If Iran no longer finds them useful in Syria or elsewhere in the Middle East, these fighters may return to Pakistan, with a sense of defeat. Zainebiyoun already has established roots in Pakistan, particularly in the sectarian conflict-prone region of Kurram. Influenced by developments in the Middle East, this group could absorb returning fighters and exploit existing sectarian tensions in the region and across the country.

It is notable that the Islamic State, which was decimated by a coalition of state and non-state actors, including the Nusra Front, has been fiercely critical of HTS. The irony lies in the fact that HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani originally split from ISIS nearly a decade ago. Now it accuses HTS of betraying the cause of jihad and collaborating with the enemies of Muslims. Indeed, the ISKP will adopt a similar approach, using this narrative to target HTS’ so-called ally, the Taliban.

The Taliban, TTP, and Al Qaeda share strong bonds, which compel them to support HTS, despite their divergent theological differences and contrasting worldviews. A shared resistance against the Islamic State and its offshoot, ISKP, remains a common factor uniting them. However, while ISKP and Iran-backed Shia proxies, including the Zainebiyoun, share a common enemy, the likelihood of them allying is minimal due to their history of hostility and conflict.

Even if no formal alliance emerges, any violent campaign initiated by the Zainebiyoun against the Taliban or TTP — particularly if the Zainebiyoun clash with Sunni tribes in conflict-ridden Kurram — could significantly complicate border dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Such developments may further escalate tensions and deepen mistrust between the two states.

Previously, the Taliban and TTP sent fighters to support the anti-Assad resistance. In 2014, the TTP announced the deployment of 120 fighters to join anti-Assad forces in Syria. No doubt, Al Qaeda was the primary actor motivating these deployments. However, HTS has since successfully managed foreign fighters, integrating them into its structures.

An important factor that could influence the Taliban regime is the state structure and system that the HTS-led coalition may introduce in Syria. On the surface, HTS appears more moderate and accommodating towards the West. It also seems to be aware of Syria’s varied social, religious, and political landscape, which suggests it may establish a different system compared to the Taliban model in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s governing system is transitional, deeply conservative, and non-negotiable; it restricts itself to a rigid ideological framework.

After Iran and Afghanistan, Syria is the third Muslim country to come under the control of Islamist forces. However, these Islamist groups differ significantly in their sectarian, political, and ideological priorities. How they will interact with each other and the broader Muslim world remains to be seen. So far, the Taliban have presented a governance model that is widely seen as incompatible with and unacceptable to most Muslim societies.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2024

Muslim civilisation and Pakistan

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi 

December 20, 2024

DAWN

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China, and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

“Indeed Allah would never change a people’s state until they change their own state” — Al Quran.

THE sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the destruction of Syria as a leader of the Axis of Resistance to US-backed Israeli-settler colonialism has surprised and shocked the world. In particular, it has stunned the Arab and Muslim world. Many consider it a much greater tragedy than the Nakba (catastrophe) of the expulsions of the Palestinians from Palestine and the Naksa (setback) of Arab military defeats in wars against Israel.

The latest developments in Syria represent a karitha (calamity) for Syria and the Arab world and a challenge for the entire Muslim world. It would be no exaggeration to say it highlights the failure of contemporary Muslim civilisation. This disaster is of an order no less than that of the Mongol destruction of the Abbasi caliphate in Baghdad in 1258. That calamity destroyed the innate confidence of Muslim civilisation from which it has never quite recovered as its primary concern became the preservation of the faith at the expense of enquiry and innovation. The Prophet (PBUH) had enjoined: seek knowledge even if it be from China. Unfortunately, the doors of ijtihad (independent reasoning) were closed.

Over the succeeding centuries, despite several militarily successful Muslim dynasties and giants of science who fundamentally contributed to Western science, the Muslim world missed out on the agricultural, industrial and technology revolutions. This set the scene for the Western colonisation of the Muslim world. Despite notable exceptions, orthodox Muslim scholars again withdrew into a defensive shell as they had in the wake of the Mongol conquests. They explicitly or implicitly linked up with traditional elites who were largely averse to the prospect of radical social reform and liberating the creative energies of the Muslim masses. Innovation was considered bid’at (novelty) and frowned upon, while taqlid (imitation) was considered virtuous. This was appropriate for the teachings of religion, but its impact extended to intellectual life as a whole.

While railing against colonial masters these traditional elites actively or passively collaborated with them in curtailing the potential of their own peoples. Their suspicious attitude towards rational and scientific enquiry privileged stability and order over intellectual freedom and national development. The word ‘secular’ was erroneously interpreted as a rejection of divine commandments. The sciences, however, are all secular.

Tens of thousands of things need to be done to transform a traditional society and an underdeveloped country.

Progressive intellectuals and movements in the Muslim world have sometimes succeeded in achieving political influence as a result of the festering grievances of the masses. But they were unsuccessful in persuading ruling elites to provide sustained good governance and credible political and educational institutions. The historic betrayal by Muslim ruling elites and the extreme conservatism of the guardians of the faith have culminated in the plight of the Muslim world today.

Pakistan shares this plight. Allama Iqbal asked “pas chi bayad kard? (what is to be done?) This has become a perennial question. It usually elicits a counter question: what can be done? And another more important question: why has it not been done? In seeking answers, another question emerges: do we start from the present or the past? George Santayana answered “those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it”. Indeed! To change the present, we must know the past because it produced the present. Accordingly, Karl Marx asked us to stop discussing the world and start changing it. That brings us back to the question: what is to be done to change it?

Tens of thousands of things need to be done to transform a traditional society and an underdeveloped country. It would be both impossible and irrelevant to try to list all of them. Party political manifestos, that are issued before elections and forgotten afterwards, aim to summarise what needs to be done along with promises to do them. They address the concerns of the electorate usually without any strategy or intent to satisfy them. The whole attempt is to seduce the electorate without offending the bosses. The people are not fooled even if they are largely resigned. The elites and their cohorts remain determined to keep them resigned to their fate.

Eventually, however, a leader may come along who seeks to implement the commitments expressed in his party manifesto and transform it into a practical policy guide rather than a set of false promises. Sooner or later, he unites his status quo-oriented rivals against him with the support of the power structure that seeks to perpetuate itself by being the guardian of the status quo.

This is what has happened in Pakistan. The fate of the country will now depend on the outcome of this struggle between the people and the elite and power establishment. If the leader and his party can develop an organised countrywide movement that inculcates an awareness and confidence among the people, and harnesses their limitless potential, the outcome of the struggle will be inevitable. Such a movement, however, will require an intellectual and political infrastructure to strengthen and deepen its roots among the people. Otherwise, it will run the risk of becoming a political posture rather than an enduring and liberating national reality.

An indispensable leader must, accordingly, aim to make himself dispensable by enabling and empowering his people and country. He transforms a political manifesto from a laundry list on paper into an enabling document. Lee Kuan Yew reportedly remarked at the end of his momentous career “Thank God, my people don’t need me anymore!”

A liberated and developing Pakistan can light a prairie fire of liberation throughout the Muslim world that would foil the designs of hegemonists at every level from the local to the national to the regional to the global. This sounds like a futile and pathetic wish today, and so it is. But other nations have shown that it is possible. The most important of them, China, is a proven friend whose friendship and cooperation can help unleash the potential of Pakistan. Its concerns need to be addressed.

Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2024

Greek tragedy

Aasim Sajjad Akhtar 

December 20, 2024 

DAWN

AMONGST the biggest stories of 2023 was the stranding and eventual capsizing of a boat in the Mediterranean carrying hundreds of people trying to smuggle themselves into Greece. The fated passengers hailed from many countries, but Pakistan’s was the biggest contingent of all — according to official figures, 262 Pakistanis perished in the disaster.

Fast forward 18 months and yet another boat carrying migrant workers has sunk off the Greek coast. This time approximately 40 Pakistanis died. As was the case in 2023, officialdom blamed human smugglers for the latest Greek tragedy and vowed to hunt them down.

But if things carried on as usual after 262 deaths, why would they change after 40 more? This is not about human smugglers. This is about a venal, militarised ruling class that defends its own interests and a wider socioeconomic order that immiserates tens of millions. So long as the dominant nexus of state and capital remains intact, the desperate working masses will continue to put everything on the line to find a way out of this country to chase the promise of a better life.

The swathes seeking to make it to Greece, Italy and other southern European countries are mostly from central Punjab, which by all accounts is Pakistan’s most developed region. Young people from the ‘core’ are now forced to play with death in increasingly similar ways to their peers from the ethnic peripheries. Akbar Notezai has reported time and again on the perilous business of human smuggling from Balochistan into Iran. What is actually reported constitutes but a small proportion of the whole.

More and more workers look to human smuggling rings to get them out.

In case anyone has been living under a rock, Pakistan is an extremely young country. Upwards of 160 million people are below the age of 25 years. Formal estimates suggest that some 2m young people join the labour force annually — the actual figure, after accounting for the so-called informal sector, is probably closer to 4m. White-collar professionals who enjoy generational class privilege are emigrating in unprecedented numbers. The blue-collar majority faces even more dismal prospects of gainful employment and a decent life in an economy that is choking on debt and a regime of ‘development’ based on natural resource grabs and conspicuous consumption.

Once upon a time, the Gulf kingdoms offered a temporary escape route for working-class migrants. Many rural Punjabi and Pakhtun households sent millions to the Gulf from the mid-1970s onwards, and experienced significant social mobility as a result. But that window is also closing now. Saudi Arabia and the UAE now require far less unskilled workers, with already putrid working conditions deteriorating further for the few that do make it.

So more and more workers look to human smuggling rings to get them out. This is not a cheap process; a single migrant can pay up to Rs30 to 40 lakhs before they cross a border. If they make it, they can forfeit months of their meagre incomes to fulfil their monetary obligations to those who got them there. Then they are faced with the lifelong prospect of trying to secure legal residence in societies that are increasingly under the sway of racist and right-wing leaders.

And what about the tens of millions who cannot get out, no matter how hard they try? They are left to try all sorts of precarious work to earn a living. Most beg to be taken in by patrons who treat them like slaves and pass on all the risk of their particular profiteering racket. Human smugg­ling rackets — like all other ra­­­-ckets in this co-untry — are en­­abled by state functionaries. They function because of the wilful complicity of profiteers within the sta­te apparatus, and so all rhetoric about cutting these rackets down to size is just noise.

The crux of the matter is that a state which still lives on fables about ‘national security’ couldn’t care less about the basic needs of the working-class majority. The establishment and its political lackeys watch tragedy after tragedy unfold, almost all of them due to the structural violence over which the ruling class presides. The government then issues meaningless statements and moves on to the next cynical game for power and profit.

This is why young people are increasingly drawn to the fantastical schemes to overturn a decrepit system, convinced that their preferred choice of charismatic leader will wave a magic wand and get rid of all the bad guys. The problem, however, is not selected bad guys, but a bad system that is imploding under its own myriad contradictions. Our youth are being thrown to the fire.

The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2024