Russia’s arms exports slump, Kremlin preparing for possible war with Nato

Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021 as the Kremlin needs all the arms it produces to supply the army in Ukraine. It has used up a large part of its stocks and despite the heavy spending doesn't have the productive capacity to meet its own demand. / bne IntelliNews

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By Ben Aris in Berlin December 20, 2024

Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021, according to defence policy expert Pavel Luzin, as the Kremlin redirects all its military production to supplying the conflict in Ukraine.

Industry analysts warn that the sector’s long-term health hinges on a swift conclusion of the war in Ukraine and is putting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks with Kyiv.

Arms exports used to be the second biggest export product after oil, but revenue from the sale of Russian arms will plummet to under $1bn by the end of 2024, Luzin, a lecturer at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, speaking at the "Country and World: Russian Realities 2024" conference in Berlin said at the end of November. This marks a sharp fall from $14.6bn in 2021, $8bn in 2022, and $3bn in 2023.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russia fell to third place in global arms exports in 2023, overtaken by the United States and France. This comes after a sustained decline in Russia’s defence exports, which halved between 2014 and 2018. By 2023, Russia was supplying weapons to only 12 countries, compared to 31 in 2019, illustrating its shrinking influence in the global arms trade.

The state-owned defence conglomerate Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov recently confirmed that Russian arms sales were valued at $15bn in 2021 but fell to $7bn in 2022 and $6bn in 2023. Figures for 2024 have yet to be released, but industry forecasts predict an even steeper decline.

“We see that Russia as an arms exporter has generally failed,” Luzin said, attributing the drop to sanctions, disrupted logistics, and waning client confidence.

The falling exports undermine Russia’s relations with its partners in the Global South, which rely on cheap but sophisticated weapons in their own security arrangements. One of the topics on the agenda during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Putin in July was the delayed delivery of Russia’s advanced S-400 surface to air missile defence system that India ordered and wants to protect its northern borders with China and Pakistan.

Satellite photos posted online by Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) show that the stocks of Soviet-era tanks and APC, among other equipment, are nearly empty. The Kremlin has been forced to turn to allies like North Korea and Iran to top up its supplies of missiles, shells and drones.

Shortages make ceasefire talks more likely

Putin quickly put Russia’s economy on a war footing following invasion in February 2022 and output of arms and ammo soared. However, that has left little over to meeting Russia’s export obligations.

Despite heavy investment in the military industrial complex, the output has not been able to meet demand and Russia has been running down in its military stocks much faster than they can be replenished.

Ukraine is also desperately short of materiel and entirely dependent on Western allies for supplies. Ukraine does not have the resources to reclaim occupied Crimea and Donbas by military means, so it is counting on diplomacy – Zelenskiy said on December 18 in Brussels.

"The Russians now control these territories. We do not have the strength to reclaim them. We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to sit at the negotiating table."

Both armies are running low and as the war enters its end game, with widespread speculation that the incoming President-elect Donald Trump will bring the fighting to an end, it is hoped that Putin will be forced to make some compromises and offer a “just peace.”

"Real negotiations for a lasting peace will begin only when the enemy no longer has the resources to continue the war," head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak told the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities in Lviv on December 19, as cited by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Russia intends to win the war in 2025

In lieu of a deal, the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war and getting ready to rebuild its military might. In September, the Kremlin launched a long-term military reconstitution programme aimed at restoring the losses incurred during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“It is clear that the military-industrial complex is counting on a halt, a freeze, an end to the war in order to return to fulfilling export contracts… because they provided a good inflow of hard currency,” Luzin said.

Putin has already increased the upper limit of men under arms to 1.5mn on September 16 from 1mn previously, but the biggest challenge will be to equip them and replace the materiel already used over the last two years of war – and pay for it.

Russia plans to continue the war until it fully occupies four annexed regions in 2025, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said on December 17 at a meeting with senior defence ministry officials. According to Belousov only 1% of the territory of Luhansk and 25-30% of the territory of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU),

He said that Moscow intends to fully seize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in the new year and that Russia will achieve "the goals announced by President Putin in June," adding: "In 2025, Moscow plans to win the war."

Moscow is not satisfied with current proposals to freeze the war, so Russian troops will continue to fight if Ukraine does not agree to Putin's conditions, Russia's UN representative, Vasily Nebenzia, said at a Security Council meeting the same day.

At the defence ministry meeting Belousov also raised the possibility of a conflict between Russia and Nato breaking out for the first time that could happen sometime in the coming years.

Belousov said that the Kremlin is also against any Nato participation in ending the war, as talk of Nato peacekeepers in Ukraine goes from “unthinkable” to “discussed”.

On June 14, Putin said that Russia would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from four Ukrainian regions and formally abandoned its aspirations to join Nato. The demands also included recognition of Crimea and Sevastopol as part of Russia. More recently leaked comments from the Kremlin suggest there is some wiggle room in the proposed negotiations and the Kremlin is prepared to offer “limited” territorial concessions, Reuters reported in November.

Europe is as unprepared for a direct conflict with Russia, but, as bne IntelliNews reported, has a much more serious shortfall of arms and productive capacity after decades of underinvestment. With the leading EU members wracked by budget crises, it also has a lot less money to spend on rearming. Germany, in particular, which has the second largest army in Europe on paper, will not be able to return to pre-war levels of armament for decades.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

Turkey, Syria tandem could mean piped Qatari gas for Europe and a supercharged Middle East clean energy transition

A Turkish-Syrian grid integration could see Turkey assist Syria in tapping into its abundant solar resources. / kallerna, cc-by-sa 4.0

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By bne IntelliNews December 21, 2024

Turkey as the terminus for a new pipeline bringing gas up from the world’s largest gas field in the Gulf off the peninsula of Qatar. Turkey as the premier gas hub serving Europe. Turkey as a crucial node in the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network. And Turkey as the northern anchor of a growing regional power system integrating vast renewable energy investments expanded across Syrian territory. The energy role that Turkey could theoretically wield as a result of the collapse of the half-a-century-old Assad dynasty of neighbouring Syria are immeasurable.

Having backed the winning side in the 13-year-long multi-sided Syria conflict, the Turks, who are working closely with the militants seeking to erect a viable post-Assad government in Damascus, are very much in the room when it comes to shaping Syria’s future.

The energy prize could be huge. But not, say the sceptics, if the new Syria dissolves into a case of rats in a barrel. Renewed conflict could deal a fatal blow to many of the energy ambitions currently causing tangible excitement among Turkish energy officials, but there again, even a stabilised western side of the country might open the door to some tempting investments. One of those could be a Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey pipeline that would ship vast volumes of gas from the Qatari side of the North Dome/South Pars field shared with Iran in the Gulf to Turkey for forwarding to Europe.

As observed in a commentary by Karim Elgendy, a Chatham House associate fellow who specialises in analysing fields including the energy transition, Ankara’s vision is that Turkey will serve as the key transit point between gas producers to its east and south, and markets to its west.

A new stability in Syria could allow, concurs Elgendy, “the revival of the long-dormant pipeline project to connect Qatari natural gas fields with Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. The plan had been rejected by the Assad regime, reportedly to protect Russian gas exports into European markets [on behalf of ally Russia]. It took the Turkish energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, just two days after [president Bashar al-]Assad’s fall to publicly express openness to revisiting the plan.”

“By creating a gas pipeline to the west of Syria,” continues Elgendy, “and connecting to the existing Arab Gas Pipeline network (which links Syria, Jordan, and Egypt) Turkey could [also] offer regional gas producers such as Israel and Egypt a more commercially viable route to European markets than current [liquefied natural gas] LNG alternatives. 

“This would effectively challenge the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) – an alliance that includes Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Palestine, Jordan, Italy, and France. 

“The EMGF’s flagship EastMed Pipeline project has struggled with technical and financial viability, with its proposed 1,900-kilometer [1,181-mile] deepwater pipeline connecting Israel and Cyprus to Greece making little progress. The pipeline was also dealt a significant blow when the US withdrew support in 2022.

“A land-based route through Syria to Turkey’s existing infrastructure would provide a shorter, technically simpler, and more cost-effective alternative.”

Would a "stable" Syria cooperating with Turkey in energy policy prove the missing link for multiple major gas pipeline, renewables and grid investments in the Middle East? (Credit: CIA World Factbook, cc, public domain).

Does it all sound too good to be true? Perhaps. Another downside for Turkey in betting on a gas hub-and-spoke model to reap lucrative energy export rewards is that, even if Syria does stabilise in a favourable way for Ankara, Europe’s appetite for gas will fall off beyond 2030 amid the push for net zero to address the climate crisis. Not surprisingly, for international financiers the attraction of investments in fossil fuel infrastructure is on the wane.  

The critical decision of Turkey, notes Elgendy, is “whether to pursue traditional gas hub ambitions that may face diminishing returns, seeking influence through traditional pipeline politics – or to leverage this moment to position itself at the centre of the region’s clean energy transition”. 

Concludes the analyst: “Prioritizing sustainable energy over conventional gas networks seems the best method by which Turkey could transform its temporary strategic advantage into lasting regional influence.

“Regardless, the choices Ankara makes in the coming months will be pivotal for its future as a regional hub – and for the entire Eastern Mediterranean energy landscape.”

The cost of the Syrian post-war reconstruction will, by some estimates, run to an estimated $400bn. Given such enormous expenditure and opportunities to start afresh in infrastructure, for Syria now might be the time to bite the bullet and go big on energy beyond fossil fuels. And, alongside his enthusiasm for gas, Bayraktar has indicated that Ankara would be interested in collaborating with Syria in this area.

Bayraktar, who in late November took a Turkish green energy roadshow to London, during which, in a meeting coordinated by JPMorgan, he spoke with senior executives of global companies operating in renewables, says Turkey aims to boost its combined wind (offshore and onshore) and solar (including floating solar) energy capacity from 30 gigawatts to 120 GW by 2035 with $108bn of public and private investment.

Though often the target of brickbats for its continued major use of coal in generating power (the country now leads Europe in this particular “dirty” table), Turkey also regularly wins plaudits for the rate of expansion seen in its renewable energy network and is looking to build a range of large and small nuclear power plants, despite serious delays. Some 43% of electricity in the country was generated through wind, solar and hydroelectric in 2023.

At the late November Istanbul Energy Forum, Alkim Bag Gullu, director of SHURA Energy Transition Center, pointed out Turkey’s ambitious goals in building up renewables within the energy mix, including rollouts of battery energy storage capacity. “[..A]s of today, approximately 35 gigawatts of battery energy storage capacity has been allocated to be integrated into wind and solar plants,” he said.

For practical assistance in managing an energy revolution, it seems Syria need look no further than its northern neighbour.

“This [renewables] model is particularly relevant given Syria’s abundant solar resources and urgent need to rebuild its power generation capacity to fuel economic development,” says Elgendy.

Indeed, a Turkish-Syrian grid integration drawing on a radical commitment to renewables could even drive development of the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network.

For Elgendy, the network’s other components – the Egypt-Saudi Arabia Inter-connector, the Great Sea Inter-connector (Israel-Cyprus-Greece), and the GREGY Inter-connector (Egypt-Greece) – collectively represent “an emerging power architecture that could transform regional energy security and support the integration of renewables. It could also foster economic cooperation and help reduce geopolitical tensions through increased interdependence”.

Iranian ambassador claims US sets conditions on Syrian-Iranian relations

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria / bne IntelliNews

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By bnm Gulf bureau December 21, 2024

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria, following the fall of the Assad regime.

Ambassador Mojtaba Amani stated on his social media account that the United States, following its representative's meeting with interim Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has stipulated that any new Syrian government must exclude Iran from having any role in establishing positive relations with Washington.

In his statement, Ambassador Amani drew parallels with previous US diplomatic engagements in the region, particularly citing American interactions with the Muslim Brotherhood between 2011 and 2013.

Amani, who lost his eye and fingers in Israel's pager attack on Hezbollah and has since returned to his post in the Lebanese capital, has been a key player between Tehran.

He specifically referenced similar conditions allegedly presented to former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

"When they saw Morsi was isolated, the time for American betrayal arrived. What was meant to happen occurred, and fate took its course," Amani wrote, suggesting a pattern in US diplomatic approaches to regional allies.

The comments emerge against the backdrop of long-standing Iranian involvement in Syria, where Tehran removed its troops and most diplomatic staff. 

Earlier on December 21, Tehran announced the death of one of its remaining employees in Damascus, who was reportedly killed in a sniper attack. 

The US State Department has not yet responded to these claims about conditions for future Syrian-American relati

Trump signals readiness for Iran nuclear talks via Omani channel – Iraqi media

Trump signals readiness for Iran nuclear talks via Omani channel – Iraqi media / bne IntelliNews

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By bne Gulf bureau December 22, 2024

US President-elect Donald Trump has sent a message to Tehran through Omani intermediaries expressing readiness to negotiate a new nuclear deal if re-elected, an Iranian official with direct knowledge of the matter told Iraqi newspaper Baghdad Alyoum on December 22.

The diplomatic outreach, delivered in recent days, indicated Trump's willingness to pursue high-level direct talks with Iran early in a potential second term. However, any new agreement would differ from the 2015 nuclear deal he abandoned, the sources said.

"Iran received a message from the elected US administration through Oman, which is one of the important channels in exchanging messages between Tehran and Washington," the source was quoted as saying.

The Omani channel has historically served as a back channel for sensitive US-Iran communications. Trump withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

According to the source, Trump will wait "no more than a few months" for Iranian officials to respond regarding their readiness to negotiate on several issues, primarily the nuclear file.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration is weighing its response as the country deals with economic and environmental challenges, including a roughly 300% currency depreciation over eight years and multiple days of shutdowns over its ongoing energy crisis, an economist said, speaking with IntelliNews on December 22.

Iran's currency, the rial, tumbled to its lowest-ever value against the dollar recently, hitting a low of IRR770,000 against the dollar. 

Trump has set a timeline of several months for Iran to indicate willingness to negotiate on issues including its nuclear programme, according to the sources. However, they noted that US commitment to any new agreement would not be guaranteed.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Iranian and US governments do not have formal diplomatic relations.

Analysts say any renewed negotiations would face significant obstacles given the history of mistrust between the nations and regional tensions.

The Iraqi newspaper report comes as the New York Times previously photographed billionaire Elon Musk reportedly leaving a meeting with Iran's diplomats in the UN. 

Trump has genuine opportunity to negotiate Iran nuclear deal

TEHRAN, Dec. 22 (MNA) – National security adviser Jake Sullivan suggested there is a “genuine opportunity” for President-elect Donald Trump to be a key player in getting an Iran nuclear deal following fall of Bashar Assad government in Syria.

According to the CNN report, Sullivan, however, highlighted the “real risk” that Iran may revisit its nuclear doctrine in the aftermath of the Assad government in Syria.

“It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on. I was just in Israel, consulting with the Israelis on this risk,” he told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria in an interview that aired Sunday.

Iran’s “conventional capability has been reduced,” Sullivan claimed.

The US official said that Iran has lost its alleged proxies while the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei dismissed in a speech earlier on Sunday claims that Iran has been cut off from its “proxy forces” in the region, asserting that the Islamic Republic neither has nor needs such forces to achieve its objectives.

In 2018, Iran activated the dispute resolution mechanism within the Joint Commission of the JCPOA at the level of foreign ministers from the remaining signatories to the agreement. Consequently, the JCPOA members issued a statement outlining 11 commitments aimed at compensating for the economic damages caused by the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the deal and re-imposition of sanctions against Iran.

Iran honored its commitments under the JCPOA for a year following the US withdrawal, hoping to give European nations time to fulfill their promises to mitigate the impacts of Washington’s unilateral exit. Nevertheless, as European countries failed to meet their commitments, Iran began to reduce its obligations under the JCPOA in several stages.

Negotiations to resume the implementation of the JCPOA have been held over eight rounds in Vienna, with representatives from the remaining signatories of the deal, the European Union, and Iran participating. The US delegation took part in the discussions indirectly.

However, the talks have stalled due to factors such as contradictions in behavior, delays in decision-making, excessive demands, and new requests from the United States.

MNA

Historical fabric of Lebanese city of Nabatieh also falls victim to Israeli strikes

Speaking with Anadolu, historian Ali Mezraani highlights historical importance of Nabatieh Market and Fadl’s House damaged in Israeli strikes

Muhammed Emin Canik |22.12.2024 - TRT/AA

A view of the destruction following Israeli attack in Nabatieh,

 Lebanon on December 20, 2024.

NABATIEH, Lebanon

The historical fabric of the city of Nabatieh, one of the most targeted places by the Israeli army in Lebanon, was also damaged during the attacks.

In Nabatieh, where Israel intensified airstrikes in September and continued until Nov. 27, a significant number of historically valuable buildings and the city's market suffered severe damage.

Among the damaged historical sites is the house of former Economy Minister Muhammad Bek el-Fadl, who played a role in Lebanon's independence.

Speaking with Anadolu, historian Ali Mezraani highlighted the historical importance of the Nabatieh Market and Fadl’s House which were damaged in Israeli strikes.

Emphasizing that the Israeli attacks particularly targeted historical buildings in Nabatieh, Mezraani noted: "There are approximately 10 historical houses that have been damaged in Nabatieh."

He also pointed out that the city's market, which dates back 500 years and is from the Mamluk era, was severely damaged in the Israeli airstrikes, with surrounding shops dating back to the mid-19th century also destroyed.

Mezraani underlined the importance of restoring the city's historical buildings with a sense of heritage.

He further stated that Fadl was a significant figure in Lebanon's independence and his name and signature can be found on the Lebanese flag that declared the country's independence.

Mezraani also stated that Fadl's family traces its roots to an influential family that governed the region 200 years ago and that the house was built in the 1930s.

He highlighted that the house represented Nabatieh's historical and artistic identity, and that it had suffered significant damage in the Israeli attacks.

"Muhammad el-Fadl donated most of the land in this area to the people of Nabatieh, the poor, and those in need. He also donated the building of the Tekmiliyyeh School in the city,” he added.

He further said that important meetings were held in Fadl's House, and that in 1945, the then-president also visited the house.

"This house was one of the rare and historic houses remaining in Nabatieh. It is a fusion of Western and Lebanese architecture, with a large hall greeting you upon entering and arches between the rooms,” Merzaani said while describing the house.

He added that the house was decorated with wood and featured intricate carvings around it, calling it "one of the rarest houses in southern Lebanon in terms of its architecture."

Fadl's House: Famous for generosity

Misbah Ammar, a retired dentist who lived in the neighboring house of Fadl, said: "I have been living here for over 50 years. This place has been severely damaged due to the Israeli attacks."

Stating that the surrounding houses were at least 70 years old, he noted: "This entire neighborhood belonged to Fadl, and he was a person respected by people. His house was at least 100 years old."

Ammar added that especially before elections, meetings and celebrations were often held at Fadl's House.

“His door was always open, and he was known for his generosity," he said.

Ammar mentioned that the house across Fadl's House was also bombed and completely destroyed by Israeli warplanes.

In addition, the people of Nabatieh believe that despite Fadl's crucial role in Lebanon's independence, he did not receive the recognition he deserved from the state.

Fadl passed away on March 5, 1986.

*Writing by Esra Tekin in Istanbul

QUISLING COMPRADORS

Eyeing role in post-war Gaza, Palestinian Authority intensifies crackdown on fighters in West Bank

The Palestinian Authority has launched its largest and most heavily armed operation in its three decades to thwart Palestinian fighters in Jenin.

Naela Khalil
Jerusalem
The New Arab Staff
London
22 December, 2024


Snipers have also been stationed throughout the camp as part of the PA's effort to establish control over the area, which is home to around 25,000 Palestinians originally displaced from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948 [Getty]

Armed clashes erupted again early on Sunday in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank, where Palestinian Authority (PA) security officers - backed by Israeli military - continued their crackdown on Palestinian resistance fighters.

Local sources reported hearing gunfire around the camp's entrances and perimeter, as PA security forces encircling the camp clashed with fighters from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)'s Jenin Brigade.

On Sunday, Palestinian news agency Wafa, reported the first death of a member of the PA security forces, Saher Farouk Jumaa Erheil of the presidential guard.

Erheil, one of four Palestinians including a 14-year-old boy killed in Jenin this month, was the first member of the security forces to die in the violence. Others killed were a fighter, and a 19-year-old passerby on a motorcycle.

Meanwhile, the PIJ called for a general strike and mass mobilisation on Sunday, urging mass demonstrations towards the camp to lift the siege and end the PA's crackdown, which the group said only serves Israel's occupation of the West Bank and expansion of settlements

"The mobilisation is the least moral duty we can fulfil to uphold the Palestinian cause; it is essential to support Jenin and its resistance fighters while honouring the sacrifices of our brothers in besieged Gaza," the PIJ said in a statement.

For the past 18 days, Palestinian fighters in Jenin have been locked in a rare open battle with the PA forces, arrested more than two dozen Palestinian fighters were arrested.

PA security forces have taken control of approximately ten homes within the camp, converting them into military outposts and forcibly displacing their residents.

Snipers have also been stationed throughout the camp as part of the PA's effort to establish control over the area, which is home to around 25,000 Palestinians originally displaced from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948.
Related

What's behind the Palestinian Authority's crackdown in Jenin?

Analysis

Issam Ahmed

A Wall Street Journal report on Sunday stated that the PA, backed by the West, is attempting to demonstrate its ability to manage security in its limited areas of the West Bank as it aims to govern a postwar Gaza Strip.

In the latest round of ceasefire negotiations, Israel has agreed to let the PA take over administration of the Rafah border between Gaza and Egypt for a short period, according to a former Egyptian official cited by the WSJ.

It comes as Israeli officials revealed that the Israeli military was backing efforts to increase coordination and cooperation with the PA under government orders.

While the PA has a relatively strong presence in the southern and central West Bank cities, it has failed to assert control in the northern part of the territory, especially the refugee camps in Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarem areas.

The Israeli army sought to encourage the PA to continue in its crackdown operations, with officials saying Israeli forces would "do what they can" to ensure the PA was "strong" and "successful" in its operations against "terrorists".

Recent reports by Israeli media highlighted that the crackdown would "benefit" Israel, highlighting that steps were being taken to "bolster" PA forces.

US-led coalition reaffirms commitment to protect Kurdish region in Syria

2024-12-20 05:09
Shafaq News/ 

The US-led coalition remains committed to protecting northeastern Syria's Kurdish region from military escalation, a senior official from the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) said on Friday.

In a statement to Shafaq News, the AANES official, Jamill Rahmano, painted a picture of Syria as “uncertain and evolving,” where the future remains clouded by ongoing negotiations among international and regional powers.

Highlighting the coalition’s pivotal role in averting military escalations, he pointed to a recent meeting in Raqqa that brought together the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local leaders. During the talks, the coalition reiterated its stance, northeastern Syria is governed by international agreements that make military incursions unlikely.

Rahmano also voiced concerns over continued Turkish military activity in Kurdish areas, underscoring the importance of coalition efforts in maintaining regional stability. Regarding de-escalation proposals, he confirmed, “Discussions are underway to designate Kobani as a demilitarized zone to prevent ongoing Turkish bombardment.”

Service conditions in the region remain dire with electricity supplied for only four hours daily, although water access is stable, Rahmano noted.

The conflict between Turkiye and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria continues to escalate. Turkiye regards the SDF, particularly its primary faction, the People's Protection Units (YPG), as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it designates as a terrorist organization.

Turkiye's staunch opposition to any form of autonomous Kurdish governance in the region has fueled repeated military campaigns, often carried out alongside its ally, the Syrian National Army (SNA). Despite multiple US-brokered ceasefire efforts, the situation remains volatile, with tensions showing no signs of abating

Opinion

Rebuilding Syria requires much more than bricks and mortar

The very social fabric that holds Syrian people together needs to be repaired, and this work requires significant investment from all stakeholders.

Tamer Qarmout
Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies
Published On 22 Dec 2024

A Syrian boy rides his bicycle past destroyed buildings in the city of Harasta in Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus on December 14, 2024 [Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP]

Rebuilding Syria after more than a decade of devastating conflict is no simple task. The country’s destruction spans physical infrastructure, governance systems, and the very social fabric that once held its people together. While the dream of a prosperous, strong and unified new Syria is certainly achievable after the fall of the al-Assad regime, certain conditions must be met before the country can rise from its ashes.

First, a transitional government whose authority is accepted by all stakeholders must be formed to ensure a smooth transfer to democracy. Any attempt to rebuild can only achieve success if it is guided by an inclusive and stable government that has international recognition and the trust of the Syrian people. A new Syria cannot be built without a new social contract that champions human rights, democracy and the rule of law. Crafting this contract will demand the collective wisdom of Syria’s brightest minds and intellectual leaders, as well as the genuine support of the global community. Only a transition steered by Syrians themselves, but fully supported by international institutions through the sharing of expertise and provision of technical support, can ensure successful reconstruction.

This endeavour will be challenging, and the path to realising it will likely be fraught with obstacles as the current political landscape remains fragmented, with no clear path to a stable and fully representative government. Without this, however, reconstruction efforts risk becoming another tool for deepening divisions rather than healing them.

Second, the stability of the Syrian state and security of its people must be guaranteed. A country under attack and fraught with conflict cannot be effectively rebuilt. Israel’s air attacks on Syrian territory and annexation of more land since the fall of the al-Assad regime have exacerbated instability. Such actions not only devastate infrastructure but also demoralise communities and jeopardise hopes for swift reconstruction and recovery.

As the global community keeps a close eye on Syria’s new leadership to ensure a smooth transition, it must also send a clear and forceful message to Israel. This message should strongly condemn Israel’s actions and demand their immediate cessation. The international community needs to make it clear that such behaviour is unacceptable and must stop right away. Stability isn’t just about the absence of war; it’s about creating an environment where people feel safe to rebuild their lives and invest in their future, The last thing Syrians need at this critical stage is a new war front with all the uncertainties and instabilities it will create for the new transitional government.

Third, international sanctions must be lifted to allow the country to get back on its feet. The Caesar Act, especially, which has crippled Syria’s economy and made it nearly impossible to bring in foreign investment, must be repealed. These sanctions, which were aimed at pressuring the previous regime to enact human rights reforms and ease repression, have also had a significant effect on the lives of everyday Syrians, deepening their suffering and despair.

The global community may hesitate to fully lift sanctions due to uncertainty about Syria’s new leadership. Nevertheless, a more nuanced approach could be adopted. Instead of blanket sanctions, a targeted strategy that involves easing restrictions on Syria’s dynamic business community and private sector could be implemented. This would contribute to Syria’s long-term stability and speed up reconstruction. Meanwhile, targeted sanctions against specific government officials can be used as a tool to encourage a positive transition, if necessary. This approach balances the need for caution with the imperative of economic revival and reconstruction.

Fourth, civil society must be empowered to play an active role in the reconstruction process. Independent local organisations must be closely involved in all reconstruction efforts, ensuring transparency and accountability. Under the rule of the al-Assad family, Syria has never had an independent civil society. Years of iron-fisted control have snuffed out community-led initiatives, leaving a society ill-equipped for meaningful public participation. However, during a period of transition and wide-reaching reconstruction, grassroots organisations that advocate for fairness and ensure aid reaches those in need have a crucial role to play. Without them, the rebuilding process risks being tainted by corruption and favouritism. Syria’s new rulers must prioritise supporting and strengthening Syrian civil society to ensure a healthy and successful reconstruction.

Rebuilding Syria isn’t just about politics – it’s a complex technical puzzle, too. The country desperately needs people with technical knowledge and experience to be able to make a long-term plan for reconstruction, budget effectively and tackle obstacles that will inevitably emerge in various complex rebuilding projects. But here’s the tricky part: Should Syria’s new leaders tap into the know-how of officials from the old regime? These officials and civil servants have valuable insider knowledge, but their ties to a government accused of terrible acts could make large segments of the population lose faith in the whole process. Finding the right balance is crucial. The rebuilding effort must be inclusive of all Syrians, and especially those hit hardest by the war – women, children, and minority groups. Alienating any group by giving too much power to people with close ties to the old regime would not just be wrong, but a surefire way to reignite tensions and sabotage any reconstruction effort before it truly begins.

Syria’s reconstruction will also be expensive. Who’s going to pay for all this? Syria’s new leadership cannot do this alone using only what is left in the state’s coffers. A coalition of international donors, including UN organisations, would need to provide the country with extensive funds. But they’ll open their wallets only if there’s a government that people trust. Donors need to know their money won’t be wasted or stolen. It’s also important to ensure the aid coming into Syria is not scattered or politically motivated. Donors tying aid to their own political demands and priorities would lead only to wasted efforts, gaps in help and more distrust. What’s needed is a united approach that would prioritise the real needs of the Syrian people and not allow aid efforts to be shaped by political games. Syria could benefit from hosting a comprehensive reconstruction conference, bringing together international donors and the new Syrian government to align reconstruction priorities, ensure transparent collaboration, and begin rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure and social fabric.

Last but not least, education will be crucial in rebuilding Syria into a vibrant, inclusive, prosperous country. A strong education system fosters a society that values human rights, community involvement, and fairness. Only by investing in education and community engagement can Syria heal its social fabric and nurture a generation that chooses dialogue and collaboration over conflict.

The most important aspect of rebuilding Syria will be rebuilding Syrian society. After all, behind all the technical stuff are real people – families who have lost loved ones in arbitrary detention, children who were left without an education, entire communities suffering from trauma. Rebuilding isn’t just about fixing roads, houses, schools, and hospitals; it’s about giving people back their dignity and hope. Syrians need to feel their suffering wasn’t for nothing, that they have a say in the future of their country, and that the days ahead hold more than loss and conflict.

Rebuilding Syria will take time and require dedication from all stakeholders. It’s not just about construction – it’s about rebuilding trust, including everyone in the process, and making sure people are held accountable. The journey ahead is long, but with the right groundwork, there’s hope that Syria can once again become a thriving, resilient country. This is a challenge that matters for Syrians and all of us.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Tamer Qarmout
Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies
Dr Tamer Qarmout is an Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Prior to joining academia, Dr Qarmout worked for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in several management positions. His research focuses on public policy analysis, good governance, public administration reform, foreign aid, and conflict resolution. He also has expertise in the areas of policy development, strategic planning, management, institutional reform, and public sector capacity development. He has significant program management experience dealing with stakeholders in planning and implementing large programs aimed at building institutional and governance capacities of public and nonprofit organizations, and post conflict early recovery and reconstruction schemes. 

Prior to joining the Doha Institute, he worked as a lecturer and a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada.

Fertility Rates Falling across the World But Not in Post-Soviet Central Asia

Russians Today Associate Stalin with Victory and Order and See Him as Model Russian Ruler, ‘Svobodnaya Pressa’ Informal Survey Finds

Paul Goble

Sunday, December 22, 2024

    Staunton, Dec. 20 – On the 145th anniversary of the birth of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, Svobodnaya Pressa journalists conducted an informal survey of Russians on the streets of Moscow. They found that Russians today feel that Stalin is the embodiment of victory and order and thus is the model Russian ruler.  
    Although the survey was not conducted among anything resembling a representative sample and although those sharing their views may not have wanted to say anything to someone they did not know that might put them at odds with the Kremlin, the answers they did give suggest how successful Putin has been in getting Russians to look past Stalin’s crimes.
    (For the poll, see svpressa.ru/reports/sptv/442873/ and the attached video recording of Russians’ answers.)

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Fertility Rates Falling across the World But Not in Post-Soviet Central Asia

Paul Goble

Sunday, December 22, 2024

    Staunton, Dec. 20 – Over the last three years, fertility rates – the number of children per woman per lifetime – have fallen across the world from 2.23 in 2022 to 2.19 in 2024 and are now below replacement levels almost everywhere including in Russia. But there is one region that is an exception: the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia.
    There, according to Moscow observer Konstantin Dvinsky, statistics show they have risen in four of the give countries over the last 20 years and so the population there will continue to rise and at least for some time be a source of migrant labors for other countries, such as Russia (iarex.ru/articles/143234.html).
    Between 2003 and 2023, fertility rates rose from 2.07 to 3.01 in Kazakhstan, from 2.5 to 3.5 in Uzbekistan, from 3.42 o 3.5 in Tajikistan and from 2.59 to 3.5 in Kyrgyzstan, reversing earlier declines and making Central Asia an outlier as far as demographic behavior of the world’s regions is concerned.
    According to Dvinsky, this is good news for Russia because it means that the Russian Federation will be able to count on Central Asia as a source of immigrant labor well into the future.  

India child marriage crackdown reaches nearly 5,000 arrests


Photo used for illustrative purpose.

A crackdown on illegal child marriages in India's northeast has resulted in nearly 5,000 arrests, after 416 people were detained in the latest police sweep, a minister said on Sunday.

"We will continue to take bold steps to end this social evil," Himanta Biswa Sarma, Chief Minister of Assam state, said in a statement.

"Assam continues its fight against child marriage," he added, saying raids have been carried out overnight and that those arrested would be produced in court on Sunday.

India is home to more than 220 million child brides, according to the United Nations, but the number of child weddings has fallen dramatically this century.

Assam state had already arrested thousands in earlier abolition drives that began in February 2023, including parents of married couples and registrars who signed off on underage betrothals. It takes the total now arrested to more than 4,800 people.

Sarma has campaigned on a platform of stamping out child marriages completely in his state by 2026.

The legal marriage age in India is 18 but millions of children are forced to tie the knot when they are younger, particularly in poorer rural areas.
Many parents marry off their children in the hope of improving their financial security.

The results can be devastating, with girls dropping out of school to cook and clean for their husbands, and suffering health problems from giving birth at a young age.

In a landmark 2017 judgement, India's top court said that sex with an underage wife constituted rape, a ruling cheered by activists.

Agence France-Presse