Trump Tantrum Pushes Canadian Oil into Overdrive

By Alex Kimani - Dec 17, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico.

Canada has hit back by touting potential export taxes on uranium, oil, and potash.

The incoming trade wars under a second Trump administration have not dissuaded Canadian oil and gas majors from drawing up plans to drill even more.



Previously, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico for failure to clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the border, with Canadian oil imports not exempt. Analysts have pointed out that imposing tariffs on Canada would drive up fuel prices for Americans, throwing into turmoil the biggest supplier of crude to the U.S. According to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, more than 20% of the oil processed by U.S. refiners is imported from Canada. According to De Haan, consumers in the Midwest, where refineries process 70% of the 4M-plus bbl/day of Canadian crude imports, could end up paying ~10% for their gas if Trump goes ahead with his tariffs.

Canada has hit back by touting potential export taxes on uranium, oil, and potash–all critical for American industry.

But the incoming trade wars under a second Trump administration have not dissuaded Canadian oil and gas majors from drawing up plans to drill even more. Canada’s oil sands producer, Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), has unveiled plans to increase its oil and gas output next year as it continues to work to improve its performance and lower costs from its assets. Suncor has set a target to grow oil and gas production to between 810,000 and 840,000 barrels per day in 2025, up from its 2024 estimated range of 770,000 to 810,000 barrels per day, and sees annual refining utilization of 93% to 97%. In terms of capex, the oil sands giant plans to spend in the range of C$6.1 to C$6.3 billion, with 45% allocated to economic investments. That marks a reduction from C$6.3 billion to C$6.5 billion for 2024 capex. Suncor's lower cash operating costs per barrel reflects its initiative to reduce its corporate WTI breakeven by $10 per bbl versus 2023, the company said.

Related: U.S. Shale Nears Limits of Productivity Gains

Canada’s Imperial Oil (NYSE:IMO) and Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) have unveiled similar plans, even as Canadian oil and gas stocks continue to outperform their American brethren. Canada’s oil and gas benchmark, the S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index, has returned 17.6% in the year-to-date, more than 4x the 4.3% gain by the S&P 500 Energy Sector.


Transitioning Away From Emissions, Not Oil

Over the past decade, major oil companies, under pressure from investors and environmentalists, have been fleeing Canada's oil sands, the fourth-largest oil reserve in the world, while investment in existing projects has stalled. A lack of pipelines and heavy emissions have weighed on the Canadian heavy crude sector for years, with some companies exiting after coming under pressure to invest in projects with lower emissions. According to research firm Rystad Energy, oil sands production in Alberta generates ~160 pounds of carbon per barrel, the highest of any oilfield in the world.

But Alberta’s politicians have no plans to ditch the province’s main cash cow any time soon. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has declared that the energy-rich region will transition away from emissions, not oil.

"We're transitioning away from emissions, we're not transitioning away from oil and gas. We're not going to phase out production of oil and natural gas, we're just going to change the way in which we use it," Smith has said at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, Alberta. According to her, hydrogen from natural gas will likely become an increasingly important fuel in the province while carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will play a role in cleaning up emissions. Smith has differed radically with Canada's minister of energy and natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson who the previous day had supported IEA’s prediction that world oil demand will fall to just 25 million barrels per day by 2050, or a quarter of current global demand, an assertion Smith has dismissed as ‘ludicrous’. Wilkinson had argued that oil and gas after 2050 would primarily be used in applications not requiring combustion, such as petrochemicals, lubricants, solvents, carbon graphite, asphalt and waxes.

Alberta’s energy minister Brian Jean announced that his office is finalizing an investment incentive program for emissions-cutting technologies like carbon capture and storage to be unveiled in the "coming months". Canada considers CCUS a key tool in helping the country’s high-polluting oil and gas industry slash emissions without cutting back on production. However, Canadian companies have been holding back on final investment decisions mainly because of the high costs associated with carbon capture and have been lobbying for more government support.

An Alberta incentive program, working alongside a federal government investment tax credit first announced last year, would be pivotal in jumpstarting Canada’ss nascent CCUS sector.

"We're going to make sure we do a robust consultation to get it right. If we get it right, that means that we're going to see another economic boom here in Alberta," Jean told Reuters in an interview.

Canada has set a net-zero emissions by 2050. A number of companies including Enbridge Inc.(NYSE:ENB), TC Energy Corp. (NYSE:TRP) as well as a coalition of Canada's six largest oil sands producers called Pathways Alliance have proposed building major CCS storage hubs.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Alberta to introduce ‘modern’ coal policy, including ban on new open-pit projects

Staff Writer | December 22, 2024 | 

The proposed site of the Grassy Mountain metallurgical coal project in Alberta.

 Credit: Riversdale Resources.

Alberta has announced plans to draft new rules that will see mountaintop removal mining and open-pit coal developments prohibited on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains.


In a statement on Friday afternoon, Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean said “the time has come” to address issues in Alberta’s current coal policy and implement a modern approach that balances “responsible resource development with strong environmental protections.”

“Our job now is to develop a policy that respects the natural spaces in the foothills and protects water while allowing for responsible coal development that can attract investment and create jobs,” he added.

The aim of the new Alberta Coal Industry Modernization Initiative (CIMI), to be drafted for government approval later in 2025, is to protect Alberta’s waters from mining contaminants such as selenium, while setting the standards for future coal mining in the world.

The CIMI will be based on the intent of the 1976 Coal Development Policy, picking up on the work done by the 2021 Coal Policy Committee, including addressing the committee’s recommendations.

The CIMI will “build a long-term legislative and regulatory framework focused on environmental protections while allowing coal development under some of the most stringent protections in the world,” Alberta’s energy ministry stated.

It stressed that the new regulations will “do away with temporary fixes and half measures and provide a foundation for responsible coal mining for the 21st Century.

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, said: “Alberta has one of the best environmental management systems in the world. We have strong and effective monitoring and regulatory protections in place to protect our air, water and lands and these safeguards will only get stronger through this initiative.”

To ensure fair compensation for the development of the the province’s abundant coal resource, the Alberta government said it will also raise the royalty rates on new coal mines significantly under the new initiative.

Alberta’s energy regulator is expected to begin the engagement process with the coal industry in early 2025 of the province’s plans for higher mining standards as well as the new royalty amounts.

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, however, criticized the CIMI, calling the announcement “a giant lump of coal just before Christmas.”

“They released a plan to increase coal mining in Alberta, and to do so in a way that has very little economic benefit and very significant environmental risk,” Nenshi told reporters on Friday.

The new policy will not affect those qualified as “advanced coal projects” such as the controversial Grassy Mountain mine near the Crowsnest Pass, which has been challenged by environmental and community groups.

A spokesperson for Northback Holdings, the company spearheading the Grassy Mountain project, wrote to the CBC that it looks forward to working with the province as it moves forward on the policy updates.

El Salvador president proposes bill to overturn metals mining ban

Reuters | December 22, 2024 |

El Salvador president Nayib Bukele. Credit: Casa Presidencial, Wikimedia Commons

El Salvador’s Congress will begin debating a bill on Saturday from President Nayib Bukele that would overturn a 2017 national ban on metals mining, the head of the president’s bloc in Congress said on Friday.


The bill is an “initiative of the president of the republic, through the minister of economy, to approve the general law on metal mining,” lawmaker Christian Guevara announced on the floor of El Salvador’s unicameral legislative assembly, where Bukele’s allies make up 57 of 60 total seats.

In 2017, El Salvador became the first country in the world to ban forms of metals mining. Bukele, who took office in 2019, has called the ban absurd and supports gold mining.

(By Nelson Renteria and Brendan O’Boyle; Editing by Stephen Coates)

American Rare Earths secures research institute to progress Halleck Creek project in Wyoming

Staff Writer | December 23, 2024 | 

The Halleck Creek rare earths project in Wyoming. (Image courtesy of American Rare Earths.)

American Rare Earths (ASX: ARR) announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Wyoming Rare, has secured a facility at the Western Research Institute to progress the Halleck Creek rare earths project and enhance its operational capabilities in the region.


The Institute, located in Laramie, is a multi-million dollar, not-for-profit research organization for work in advanced energy systems, environmental technologies, and materials research and technologies.

The facility will serve as a hub for exploration, processing and future development activities, enabling American Rare Earths to align its efforts with state-backed initiatives to bolster critical mineral development.

The announcement follows the recent award of a $7.1 million grant from the state of Wyoming to support the advancement of the company’s rare earth processing initiatives.

Its Halleck Creek project was named by Mining Intelligence last year as one of the world’s top 10 rare earth projects measured in total rare earth oxides (TREO). The Wyoming Rare unit recently rejected a $400 million SPAC takeover offer.

The facility will house all drill core and assay samples collected to date, providing a central location for streamlined operations, the company said, adding that the space will accommodate the construction of a pilot plant, advancing the development and testing of processing capabilities for the project.

“The support of the state of Wyoming and our collaboration with the Western Research Institute highlights Wyoming’s commitment to becoming a leader in critical minerals development,” Wyoming Rare president Joe Evers said in a news release.

“This facility helps to advance our mission of onshoring critical mineral supply chains for the USA while highlighting Wyoming’s position as a leader in critical minerals and rare earth elements,” Evers added.

Video: Gold mining faces a cliff after 2025, CRU analyst predicts

Northern Miner Staff | December 22, 2024 | 

CRU gold and base metals asset analyst Oliver Blagden. Credit: Martina Lang

Global gold production will peak at about 3,250 tonnes (105 million ounces) next year, marking a historic high before entering a prolonged decline, a London event heard this month.


From 2025 onward, global gold production is forecast to fall. Reserves will deplete, ore grades will decline and aging mines will close, CRU Consulting gold and base metals asset analyst Oliver Blagden told The Northern Miner’s International Metals Symposium in London on Dec. 2.

“This will be the most gold we’ve ever mined in a single year, ever,” Blagden said.

The decline marks a turning point for an industry facing dwindling reserves, geopolitical risks, and few new projects. Despite high profitability from strong gold prices, experts warn that without fresh investments, production could drop sharply, tightening supply and reshaping markets.

But, even if all planned projects come online, production could drop by as much as 17% by 2030, he noted.

Blagden highlighted the challenges of maintaining output levels, particularly in regions like China and Russia. China is the world’s largest gold producer, according to CRU. It contributes 11% of global output but faces modest reserves relative to its production rate, indicating a potential supply bottleneck. Similarly, geopolitical pressures and diminishing ore quality tempered Russia’s production expansion.
Resource nationalism

Jurisdictional risks add to the challenges, the analyst told a room of industry execs and investors. Blagden noted a rise in resource nationalism in West Africa. Countries like Mali and Burkina Faso have nationalized operations, deterring foreign investment.

“We’re seeing the impact of geopolitical instability in these regions, which adds another layer of complexity for miners,” he said.

Conversely, Blagden noted bright spots. These are Argentina’s mining-friendly reforms and potential shifts in United States policy. They could streamline permits and encourage new developments. However, he cautioned that North America, while politically stable, remains the highest-cost region for gold mining globally.
Greenfield deficit

Despite these challenges, the gold mining industry remains highly profitable. Blagden said 97% of gold producers are operating with positive margins, assuming a gold price of $2,235 per ounce.

Average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margins stand at 47%, reflecting the industry’s strong financial footing. “It’s been a great couple of years to be a gold miner,” he noted.

Yet, Blagden warned that profits hide a troubling deficit in new greenfield projects. High prices have not spurred enough investment in exploration. High-grade, well-located deposits are harder to find.
Decisive action

Blagden noted gold’s unique position among commodities. Unlike metals such as copper or lithium, gold is not consumed but accumulated.

“If we stopped all gold mining today, above-ground stockpiles could satisfy fabrication demand for 75 years,” he said.

In 2023, central banks set record purchase levels. They continue to support prices, now at $2,626.20 per ounce.

Blagden called for miners to act decisively during this period of high profitability. “Without new projects, mines will close, production will fall, and profits will shrink,” he said.

He urged miners to invest in strategic acquisitions, brownfield expansions and exploration to extend mine life and ensure future supply. “The industry must seize this window of opportunity to sustain long-term viability.”

Watch the full presentation below:

Lithium Americas and GM close joint venture for Thacker Pass mine

Reuters | December 23, 2024 | 

The Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada. Image from Lithium Americas.

Lithium Americas said on Monday it has closed its joint venture with US automaker General Motors to develop the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada.


The miner’s CEO, Jonathan Evans said that the company is expected to make a final investment decision on the project in early 2025.

Under the JV agreement, first announced in October, GM would contribute $625 million to the project to gain a 38% stake in Thacker Pass in the form of cash and a credit facility.

The deal’s closing provides another boost for the giant lithium mine, months after the US finalized a $2.26 billion loan for the Nevada project.

Though the loan was granted under the Biden Administration, the US President-elect Donald Trump had approved the mine during his previous term.

Thacker Pass, slated to open later this decade, is expected to produce 40,000 metric tons of battery-quality lithium carbonate per year in its first phase, enough for up to 800,000 electric vehicles.

(By Vallari Srivastava; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

General Motors' Thacker Pass Investment Threatens Indigenous Peoples' Rights




New Mighty Earth Report Reveals GM Failing on Protecting People and Climate

By Mighty Earth

JUNE 2023

On June 15, 2023, Mighty Earth released a report documenting how General Motors (GM), a global leader in the automobile industry, is facilitating the violation of Indigenous Peoples' right to self-determination with its investment in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada. The report “GM Wants “Everybody In” on Greenwashing” also shows how the auto manufacturer is, from multiple perspectives, failing on protecting people and climate.

The report sheds light on a litany of examples revealing how GM is failing to live up to its own stated ambitions to achieve carbon neutrality and ensure that human rights are not violated in its value chain. Furthermore, the report finds how GM continues to fall behind competitors like Ford, Stellantis, and Volkswagen on cleaning up its supply chain. The report shows that there is a massive disconnect between the company’s climate and human rights commitments that it communicates to its investors and consumers and the actual actions that GM is taking to ensure these goals and commitments are fulfilled.

“As the largest carmaker in the U.S., GM has a unique opportunity to be an industry leader in the responsible transition to EVs. However, its failure to take adequate action to decarbonize its supply chain and to respect Indigenous Peoples and their ancestral lands shows GM consistently chooses public relations tactics over meaningful commitments. If GM is serious about commitments it has made,it can start by ensuring Lithium Americas respects the rights of Indigenous Peoples,” said Matthew Groch, Senior Director at Mighty Earth.

The report highlights specific cases where GM's actions have clashed with its public commitments:


Thacker Pass lithium mine on Indigenous Peoples' Land

The consultation was never adequate. There are several Tribes with direct ties to Thacker Pass who weren’t included in OR give any Free, Prior and Informed Consent, including the Shoshone Paiutes of the Duck Valley Indian Reservation. GM should check that. Massacre sites and dirty mining history plague Indian Reservations. Consultations with everyone would have produced substantial evidence to affirm that Thacker Pass wasn’t properly processed. The People of Red Mountain call for accountability,” said Gary Mckinney (Western Shoshone/ Northern Paiute

GM has invested $650 million in Lithium Americas Corp to help the company develop its Thacker Pass lithium mine project, which violates Indigenous Peoples' rights and free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC). Federal permitting was fast-tracked for the Thacker Pass project and members of the public didn’t have sufficient time to weigh in before the plan to mine this land was approved, this violates the right of the local Indigenous People to self-determination. GM has a policy that claims its committed to ensuring respect of Indigenous Rights and FPIC specifically related to its supply chain, but at this time they have taken no action to ensure that this commitment is fulfilled with regards to this project, despite receiving multiple communications from organizations and the affected Indigenous communities.


Human Rights: Forced Uyghur Labor and Child Labor

A series of reports released in 2022 found GM suppliers closely linked to forced Uyhgur labor. Earlier this year, the NYT revealed that undocumented children have been working for GM suppliers in the U.S. These two damning revelations are in stark contrast to an initiative GM announced last year asking global suppliers to join the company in a commitment to carbon neutrality, the development of social responsibility programs and implementation of sustainable procurement practices in their supply chain operations. It’s clear this commitment and the process underpinning it is clearly failing.


Dirty Steel and Aluminium

The steel and aluminum industries produce around 10% of the 2% of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions - more than the whole of the European Union. And despite their significant impact, GM has yet to announce how it intends to decarbonize its North American steel and aluminum supply chains. Moreover, GM’s relationship with Cleveland-Cliffs is antithetical to its decarbonization commitments and continues the assault on communities near its facilities. Just this April, Cleveland-Cliffs announced it plans to reline a blast furnace at its Burns Harbor, Indiana facility in 2025. Blast furnace relining is incompatible with a climate-safe future and represents a major economic and climate decision that will extend the life of a blast furnace-powered plant for an estimated 18 years.

Automotive companies are key demand-drivers for both industries: they are the largest global consumer of aluminum and a top global consumer of steel, with automotive steel being the highest value-added major segment of the global steel market, selling for more than 50% more than conventional steel. “Lead the Charge”, an industry leaderboard published earlier this year, that analyzed publicly available official reporting of 18 of the leading automotive manufacturers in the world, ranking their efforts to eliminate emissions, environmental harms, and human rights violations from their supply chains, published earlier this year found that GM ranked 8 out of 18 automakers.


The report calls on GM to take immediate action to address these shortcomings and align its actions with its stated ambitions. Specific demands include:Pause investment in the Thacker Pass Mine to conduct due diligence on their Indigenous Rights risk exposure in the project. Require suppliers and partners to implement FPIC policies in accordance with UNDRIP.

Commit to ending sourcing from any steel or aluminum supplier connected to human rights violations or the exploitation of Indigenous lands or people.

Adopt specific annual targets for purchases of carbon-free aluminum, reaching zero-carbon aluminum emissions by 2030.

Commit to transition to using 50% low-carbon steel by 2030.

Join global initiatives supporting value chain emission reductions, including ResponsibleSteel, SteelZero, and the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative


For more information or to arrange an interview contact:
William Fitzgerald, william@theworkeragency.com, 

Link to report here

 

Codelco and Chuquicamata mine workers reach early wage deal

Reuters | December 20, 2024 | 11:46 am Top Companies Latin America Copper 

(Image: Codelco | Flickr)

Chile’s state-run copper miner Codelco and workers at its Chuquicamata mine have reached an early contract agreement, a union leader told Reuters on Friday.

(By Fabian Cambero; Editing by Anthony Esposito)

Carriers Grow Pessimistic Urging Preparations for U.S. Port Strike

Hapag was among the carriers warning that the risk of disruption is increasing (Hapag-Lloyd)

Published Dec 20, 2024 12:16 PM by The Maritime Executive

With the deadline looming for the expiration of the master contract for U.S. East and Gulf Coast dockworkers, carriers are beginning to sound cautions to customers. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM Group each issued customer advisories warning the situation is “dynamic” and with no signs of an agreement and the union saying they are at an impasse, the dangers are growing.

The employers represented by the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association ended the October 2024 walkout by extending the contract deadline to January 15, 2025. This week marked four weeks till the end of the extension and the anticipated January 16 work stoppage.

“The possibility of a strike increases each day that passes without a settled contract,” Maersk writes in a customer advisory released today, December 20. They said they await further developments but also noted the situation is complicated by the beginning of the holiday season.

Similarly, Hapag-Lloyd also issued an update echoing the same sentiments. It tells customers “the risk of disruption is increasing.” They also however acknowledge the situation remains dynamic.

The ILA and USMX have been silent for a week after trading jabs and blame last week for the current impasse. The ILA remains dug in on its position of no automation of semi-automation and seems emboldened by the strong support of President-elect Donald Trump. His nominated labor secretary, Oregon Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer is also seen to be a supporter of labor unions.

With the deadline fast approaching, the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) sent a letter on Thursday, December 19, to both sides urging them to postpone the deadline. They ask for additional time for negotiations noting the start of the Lunar New Year on January 29 which traditionally causes a rush to get shipments done before the pause in much of Asia. Further, they note the timing of the U.S. presidential inauguration on January 20 saying time is needed for the transition. 

“We are concerned that a second lapse in contracts, complicated by the challenging timing issues of the presidential administration transition and the Lunar New Year, would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy and the American public,” writes Eric Byer, President and CEO of ACD. He says the three-day strike in October caused weeks of supply chain disruptions and if the strike had gone a few more days members would have lost stock of chemicals used for critical processes, such as water treatment.

Port executives, especially on the U.S. West Coast, highlighted strong volumes in November and an expectation of very strong volumes through the end of 2024. They believe that shippers are diverting cargo to the West Coast and frontloading to prepare for a possible strike and future tariff increases from the new administration.

For now, the carriers are telling customers to make preparations to move containers off terminal. Maersk notes it is unclear if the terminals will increase their hours to support extra movements. Similarly, Hapag advises customers to expedite the readiness of documentation and customs clearance to facilitate prompt retrieval of containers.

“Contingency plans to ensure that all impacted vessels and that operations are completed prior to any labor disruptions,” are being made CMA CGM advises. 

Carriers have traditionally held vessels offshore in an attempt to wait out a strike, but experts warn this could become a prolonged dispute. With the support of the incoming administration and likely pressure from shippers, experts believe the union may be in a stronger position in the final weeks before the contract deadline.

 

Autonomous Drone Subs Help Researchers Study Arctic Plankton

Underwater robots, combined with simple instruments from 100 years ago, are helping researchers unlock the secrets of microscopic marine organisms.

NTNU / Tore Mo-Bjorkelund

Published Dec 22, 2024 2:31 PM by Gemini News

 

 

[By Ingebjørg Hestvik]

Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, May 2022: It’s spring, the sun is shining – which means the plankton in the cold waters of the Arctic Ocean are about to bloom.

Long bright days and rising temperatures have awakened the phytoplankton. The spring bloom has begun, and populations of these tiny plankton are growing explosively beneath the surface.

From a boat out on the fjord, Tore Mo-Bjørkelund launches a robot into the sea. Then another one.

The robots are two lightweight autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that have been programmed to move around in the water and detect the fluorescence emitted by chlorophyll. Chlorophyll is the green pigment that phytoplankton uses for photosynthesis.

“Spring is a hectic time in the ocean, and algal blooms are a dynamic and complex process. They are difficult to analyse in detail,” says Mo-Bjørkelund.

Water sampling

Mo-Bjørkelund’s PhD at NTNU has involved developing algorithms to map the bloom in both time and space. Accompanying him out on the sea is marine biologist Sanna Majaneva, who is ready to take water samples once the robots have located the densest concentrations of algae.

While Mo-Bjørkelund is testing expensive new advanced robotics, Majaneva is equipped with a Niskin water sampler: a plastic tube attached to a wire with a simple mechanical trigger mechanism.

When the tube reaches the right depth, a weight is sent down the wire that hits a trigger and the tube closes. The sampler is very similar to one Fridtjof Nansen developed over a hundred years ago to collect water samples at precisely the desired depth.

There are a number of different ways to study plankton. Here, the researchers use a Niskin water sampler. Photo: Martin Ludvigsen, NTNU

Old but reliable methods

The two AUVs moving around below the surface may seem technologically superior, but it is Sanna Majaneva’s simple water sampler that ultimately provides all the answers.

“Those things really work. The problem with technological development is that the things we make don’t usually work. By contrast, a plankton net or a water sampler works almost every time. They are simple, cheap and reliable solutions that modern technology struggles to match,” says Mo-Bjørkelund.

However, biologists need new solutions to gain a better overview of what is happening beneath the greyish-blue, opaque surface of the water.

A water sampler can take samples along a vertical line in the water and provide an overview of what is happening at precisely that location. But it provides little insight into what the algal bloom is doing in the space surrounding that vertical line.

That’s why Majaneva needs help from Mo-Bjørklund’s underwater robot.  The robot can do something that her water sampler can’t: It can find its way to the tightest concentration of phytoplankton in the water column.

Can check plankton concentrations and dispersal

“You might think plankton is distributed homogeneously in the water, but we know that in fact the distribution is quite uneven – a kind of a fine-scale patchiness,” she said. “It’s difficult to study using traditional methods, and there may be more interaction between the different organisms inside these patches than we currently know about.”

Majaneva is one of several marine biologists from NTNU who have participated in the ‘Nansen Legacy’ project, an interdisciplinary research project on the marine climate and ecosystems undergoing rapid changes.

The annual spring blooms of phytoplankton form the very foundation of marine ecosystems, yet there is still much we do not know.

“I study zooplankton. I want to understand what differentiates them from each other, how they coexist, and how they influence one another in the pelagic environment,” says Majaneva.

Studies of what happens during a phytoplankton bloom are important to gain better insight into the processes affecting organisms one step higher up the food chain.

“We would like to know more about biodiversity and the prevalence of different plankton species. Perhaps this fine-scale patchiness plays a more significant role than we previously thought,” says Majaneva.

Robots taught to make decisions underway

The two underwater robots are now going to move around and measure fluorescence in an area measuring 1.5 by 1.5 km, down to a depth of 50 metres. This will allow them to locate the highest concentration of chlorophyll in this three-dimensional box of water.

They will also calculate where the measurements are most uncertain so they can retake measurements and improve the quality of the data. At the same time, they need to avoid crashing into each other.

“The topic for my PhD has been adaptive measurements. Measurements are used along the way to determine where to measure next. I wouldn’t call it artificial intelligence as there are no neural networks in play, but we train a model on data we collect in the field. The robot makes decisions based on data collected during the process. The model is a mathematical-statistical process, a spatially optimal that the robot uses to make decisions,” Mo-Bjørkelund says.

Prior to his fieldwork, he has fine-tuned the software by running simulations of what the researchers expect to happen in the field. He will now find out if the system works.

3-D pictures of photosynthesis in real time

After an initial round of mapping, the two robots rise to the surface to exchange data via satellite. This enables one robot to make decisions based on data from the other.  This may include revisiting areas with uncertain measurements as well as avoiding colliding with the other robot.

On board the research ship, the researchers can monitor the measurement data, which are displayed as three-dimensional images on a screen, creating a model of the photosynthesis in the water, right there and then.

“In this case, we saw that there wasn’t much chlorophyll on the surface, but that there was a huge bloom further down,” says Mo-Bjørkelund.

While Mo-Bjørklund has done most of his work in the office before the expedition to Svalbard, this is where Majaneva’s work begins.

The water sampler’s turn

After a second round of measurements, the robots are lifted out of the water. The researchers sail to the location where the robots measured the densest concentrations of chlorophyll and deploy the water sampler to find plankton.

What species are in the water? How does energy flow between the phytoplankton and the zooplankton?

For Mo-Bjørkelund, this marks the culmination of years of work.

“This was just a trial. If these types of robots are to be used as a standard method, much more engineering is required. Biologists are using technology that was developed decades ago, because modern technology simply isn’t reliable enough yet.”

Developing cost-effective research

Trondheim, 2024: Two years have passed since the expedition to Svalbard. Mo-Bjørkelund has long since completed his studies at NTNU and has established his own underwater technology company with three other former NTNU students.

Norwegian SciTech News meets up with Sanna Majaneva over a quick coffee between busy sessions at NTNU University Museum’s laboratory in Trondheim.

She has used methods from genetics to find out which plants and animals were in the water samples from Kongsfjorden. However, identifying which organisms are present in the water is not straightforward, even if their DNA is found in the water samples.

“We use environmental DNA and genetic barcoding to identify phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish. Environmental DNA is an effective method for mapping biodiversity, but there are still many species that are not found in the DNA reference libraries,” says Majaneva.

Moreover, even if researchers find DNA from a particular species in a specific area, they cannot be certain that the organism lived precisely where they found it.

“It may also have been a fragment that floated down from further up in the water column,” Majaneva explains.

Constant pressure

She talks about the constant pressure to make environmental monitoring and biological research as cost-effective as possible.

The genetic methods save her from months of microscope work, but they still require development and leave many questions unanswered.

Mo-Bjørkelund’s underwater robots may also save biologists valuable time in the field.

“These type of robots will enable us to investigate several locations, at different depths, and study the effects of different currents. They will help us decide where the samples should be taken, or where we should locate the stations. Should we take water samples at a depth of 20 or 35 metres? After all, we can’t bring the entire water column on board. Maybe the robot can take water samples for us? Then we wouldn’t even need to be present. Expeditions are expensive,” says Majaneva.

The way forward

The Nansen Legacy project has now been completed, but work on developing autonomous underwater robots at NTNU continues.

“The ocean is constantly changing and we will never be able to measure everything all the time. In order to gain the best possible understanding of the ocean, we need to concentrate our efforts in the most interesting areas,” says Professor Martin Ludvigsen at the Department of Marine Technology.

The Harvest project is now testing how underwater vehicles can use sonar technology and particle cameras to calculate the concentration of zooplankton in the water column, while the Mascot project concentrates on the statistical methods that enable the robots to determine where and when measurements should be taken.

“Adaptive mapping using AUVs can give us much better insight into the dynamics of physical, biological and chemical processes in the ocean,” Ludvigsen says.

Majaneva believes that the Nansen Legacy project has demonstrated the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration.

“We need each other’s knowledge to see the big picture,” she said.

This article appears courtesy of Gemini.no and may be found in its original form here. 

Reference: Mo-Bjørkelund, Sanna Majaneva, Glaucia Moreira Fragoso, Geir Johnsen, Martin Ludvigsen: Multi-vehicle adaptive 3D mapping for targeted ocean sampling | PLOS ONE

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 ALASKA

Maersk Pulls Out of Dutch Harbor and Kodiak

Reefer ships at Dutch Harbor, Alaska (Delta Whiskey / CC BY ND 2.0)

Published Dec 22, 2024 3:09 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Global shipping giant Maersk has hit fishing interests in Alaska with news that it plans to withdraw from two of the state’s ports on its transpacific service network. 

As part of its revision of services for the coming year, the liner said it intends to suspend its calls at terminals at Dutch Harbor and Kodiak, two primary export hubs for the $1.5 billion Alaska pollock fishery. The world’s second-largest container shipping company attributed the decision to an “ongoing effort to strengthen our product offerings and maintain reliability in the network.”

According to Maersk, the Danish-flagged container feeder Cape Sorel will carry out the final westbound voyage out of Dutch Harbor on February 11.  

Dutch Harbor is one of the largest commercial fishing ports in the U.S., and its exports go to markets in Europe and Asia. In 2022, some 613.5 million pounds of seafood across various species were landed in Dutch Harbor. Kodiak is also a top fishing port, home to a large fleet and multiple canneries. The bulk of the product by volume is pollock, the wildly prolific Gulf of Alaska species used to make fish sticks and other processed products.

Alaska's fishing industry has been hit hard over the past few years due to declines in several key commercial species - notably snow crab, chum salmon and king salmon. Coupled with other economic factors, this has cut the industry's profitability in half since 2021, according to NOAA Fisheries. 

Top image: Reefer ships at Dutch Harbor, Alaska (Delta Whiskey / CC BY ND 2.0)