Monday, December 23, 2024

Russia Expands Global Nuclear Footprint Despite Western Pushback

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 23, 2024


Russia is looking to maintain its position as “one of the biggest builders of new nuclear plants in the world,” a top envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday.

“We are building more than 10 different units around the world,” Boris Titov, Putin’s special representative for international cooperation in sustainability, told FT.

“We need a lot of energy. We will not be able to provide this energy without using . . . nuclear,” the official said.


This type of energy is safe and low-carbon, Titov added.

Russia currently has nuclear power plants under development and construction in countries such as China, India, Iran, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey, among others.

Russia’s ambitions to boost its global influence in nuclear power fleets come as the West seeks to diminish its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel and technology.

Yet, the Western countries will need additional incentives and sanctions on Russia to reduce their dependence on the Russian supply of nuclear fuel, according to French company Orano, one of the top Western suppliers of enriched uranium.

“To entirely disconnect from Russia, we need new capacities, and industrial groups will only invest if they have long-term contracts,” Orano’s CEO Nicolas Maes told the Financial Times in an interview in October.

France’s Orano and Urenco, a consortium created in 1970 by the governments of Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, are the main Western competitors of Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy firm Rosatom.

Europe has not sanctioned Rosatom or Russian nuclear fuel supplies as dozens of nuclear power stations in the eastern EU member states have been built by Russian companies and supplied with Russian nuclear fuel.

As many countries are now looking to nuclear power to cut emissions and reliance on imports of oil and gas, they would need to cut their dependence on enriched uranium from Russia.

But in order to reduce reliance on Russia, western contractors and suppliers would need visibility over the long-term demand, the chief executive of France’s Orano told FT.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Government inquiry recommends lifting Swedish uranium ban


Monday, 23 December 2024

Sweden should remove its prohibition on uranium mining to allow it to be exploited like other natural resources regulated under the Minerals Act, a government inquiry has concluded.

Government inquiry recommends lifting Swedish uranium ban
(Image: Pixabay)

Uranium exploration and mining has been prohibited in Sweden since 2018, but in February this year Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari announced that a government inquiry would look into abolishing the ban.

The inquiry has now published its conclusions, in which it recommends that uranium be regulated as a "concession mineral" under the Minerals Act. This would allow deposits containing economic quantities of uranium to be exploited like other natural resources in the country. It envisages the legislation required would enter into force on 1 January 2026.

"More than a quarter of Europe's known uranium reserves are found in Sweden's bedrock," Pourmokhtari said. "Being able to mine uranium is absolutely essential for our work on climate change, to reduce emissions and dependence on fossil fuels and energy sources. I want us to mine and make use of the mineral that is found in Sweden, where the Swedish mining industry is among the most environmentally friendly and safe in the entire world."

Sweden's ban on uranium mining has had a negative impact for critical raw materials that are necessary in technology and climate-smart products, Energy and Industry Minister Ebba Busch said. "Removing the ban is absolutely necessary to reduce our dependence on third countries, create jobs and enable more ethical mines," she added.

The inquiry's findings - or memorandum - are now being referred for consultation to the relevant authorities, organisations, municipalities and other stakeholders. Australian mineral company Aura Energy, owner of the Häggån vanadium, potash and uranium project in Sweden, has been named as a party to the consultation, and said the inquiry's findings align Sweden’s mining legislation with its energy policy that calls for a substantial expansion of nuclear power. Extracting uranium from a "substantial endowment of geology which hosts uranium as a by-product would greatly increase Sweden’s energy security", it said.

"This is an important first step for Sweden to continue its path towards low-carbon energy self sufficiency," Aura Energy Managing Director and CEO Andrew Grove said. "Sweden has a rich geological endowment that can be harnessed to provide zero emissions nuclear power for both its own domestic use, as well as for export.  

"Sweden has high environmental standards and a robust permitting system, which would of course also cover uranium extraction should this proposal be enacted. Uranium can be mined safely and put to use in support of the transition to carbon free energy in Sweden, Europe and across the globe. It will also reduce Sweden’s dependence on imported energy sources and release significant value for Sweden’s economy."

Häggån, in the municipality of Berg in the county of Jämtland, contains about 800 million pounds U3O8 (307,718 tU), which Aura says could meet Sweden's uranium needs for over 300 years, at current usage levels.

The public can also comment during the consultation process, which will run until 20 March.

Westinghouse signs agreement to diversify fuel supply for Bulgarian plant

Monday, 23 December 2024

The company has signed a contract with Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant to conduct safety analysis for licensing a new nuclear fuel assembly design for Kozloduy unit 6.

Westinghouse signs agreement to diversify fuel supply for Bulgarian plant
Westinghouse President of Nuclear Fuel Tarik Choho (seated, left) and Kozloduy NPP CEO Ivan Andreev (seated, right), sign the new contract watched by Malinov (standing, left) and Fragman (Photo: Business Wire)

The agreement, which was signed in the presence of Bulgarian Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov, follows the delivery of the first reload of Westinghouse-supplied VVER-1000 fuel assemblies to unit 5 at the plant earlier this year.

"The signing of the contract with Westinghouse marks a new key step in our consistent efforts to diversify nuclear fuel supplies for the Kozloduy NPP," Malinov said, describing the partnership between Kozloduy NPP and Westinghouse as a guarantee of Bulgarian energy security: "Thanks to the fruitful cooperation with our American partners, we have achieved tremendous progress in our common goal - to make Bulgaria's energy sector independent."

Kozloduy 5 and 6 are Russian-designed and supplied VVER-1000 units that were connected to the grid in 1987 and 1991, respectively. Both units have been through refurbishment and life-extension programmes and together generate about one-third of Bulgaria's electricity. Two Westinghouse AP1000 units are also planned for the site, aiming to come into operation in the latter half of the 2030s.

In November 2022 Bulgaria's National Assembly voted to accelerate the process of securing an alternative to Russia as supplier of nuclear fuel for the VVER-1000 units. The following month, Kozloduy NPP signed a 10-year contract with Westinghouse to fabricate and deliver VVER-1000 nuclear fuel for Kozloduy unit 5 from Westinghouse's fabrication site in Västerås, Sweden. The first fuel supplied under that contract was loaded into the reactor earlier this year.

Westinghouse said the nuclear fuel licensing for unit 6 will meet the rigorous requirements of the Bulgarian Nuclear Regulator, executing a Lead Test Assemblies Licensing Programme.

"We look forward to further contributing to the energy independence and fuel diversification for Bulgaria, which is so critical to Kozloduy NPP," Westinghouse President and CEO Patrick Fragman said. "We are also pleased about the continued progress on the project to build two Westinghouse AP1000 units at this site," he added, thanking Malinov for his "continuous and unwavering support in achieving this major milestone".

Viewpoint: International collaboration is key for geological disposal programmes

Monday, 23 December 2024

Different countries planning the safe, permanent disposal of nuclear waste in geological repositories are sharing experiences and learning from each other, as Neil Hyatt, chief scientific advisor to the UK's Nuclear Waste Services explains.

Viewpoint: International collaboration is key for geological disposal programmes
Neil Hyatt, on a recent visit to a repository in France (Image: Nuclear Waste Services)


Why is there a need to collaborate internationally?
 

We’ve been pioneers in the nuclear industry for decades. But that doesn’t mean we should stop learning. Collaborating with our international network means we’re exposed to a much broader range of thinking. We can learn from each other and get the best from the huge reservoir of knowledge that’s been developed around the world. The evidence base and arguments we use to support our claims of safety are far more robust when they draw from multiple sources and are subject to cross examination from the best brains in the field. It's also good to be challenged. It keeps our thinking fresh.

It’s important for people early in their careers to work with more experienced programmes and with more experienced people. When they bring their evidence to the international arena it will be scrutinised by the best in the world. That sets a gold standard and challenges them to be at the top of their game.

It also gives us the chance to recruit, and at a time when we are facing a nuclear skills gap, that is vital. By working internationally, we can periodically "swap" experts with secondments. On these visits, they’ll work in a specific area for a long time to bring more knowledge, experience and understanding back home. They will also be exposed to different cultural professional approaches to research programmes. This mutual understanding will help to build and sustain these vital international relationships and give them a fresh perspective.

When I give talks, I always say we are not alone in our endeavour. The professional relationships we develop internationally means we can support each other in our goal to make nuclear waste permanently safe, sooner.

How do you collaborate?
 

The Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) programme is an international effort. More than 20 countries across the world are trying to develop a GDF. The most advanced is in Finland. It is expected to achieve the world first disposal of spent nuclear fuel by the end of the decade. Each GDF is likely to be the first (and only) of its kind in each nation state and its construction is very different to building an aircraft or submarine, for example. Every few decades engineers design new classes of submarines which are iterations on what came before. They build on the learning from the previous class and transfer it into the new class so they can build better submarines over time. But a GDF is a different kind of proposition.

That is why we have to learn through experiments and knowledge sharing, so that the design is right and the facility can be adapted over its lifetime. A lot of our experiments need to be run in a prototype environment in an underground research laboratory. But the best instruments and facilities for these experiments are one of a kind and expensive to build. We use relevant underground laboratories around the world, working with international teams, to undertake this kind of work, sharing cost and knowledge. This kind of collaboration is an essential part of developing the evidence base and technology to deliver.

Our partners in France and Switzerland, among others, are another great resource. The geologies they are looking to develop in are similar - for example France is developing its GDF in a clay geology similar to that of interest in the UK. That is why we have such a close technical relationship. We can also draw on technical learning from Sweden and Finland around pivoting from a scientific organisation into a delivery organisation and then an operating organisation as the building of our GDF moves through different phases. We can use their example to learn how we can build positive working relationships with communities too.

What kind of experiments do you run in underground laboratories?
 


Nuclear Waste Services staff in Switzerland (Image: NWS)

We’re running an experiment in Switzerland’s Mont Terri underground laboratory. The experiment, called HotBent, will help us determine whether we can pack High Heat Generating Waste (HHGW) more efficiently in the GDF. Our High Heat Generating Waste (HHGW) packages, like high level waste glass, could be emplaced horizontally in tunnels, within a lower strength sedimentary rock. The packages will be surrounded by a swelling natural clay, bentonite, which will seal them in place, protecting them. The HHGW will heat the surrounding bentonite clay and we need to ensure that the temperature does not rise to too much, otherwise its swelling characteristics could be affected. So, one aim of the HotBent experiment is to determine whether bentonite clay can sustain higher temperatures, at realistic scales, and in real conditions.

This information will help us to optimise the layout of the GDF and HHGW container spacing, which could translate into substantial saving in time, cost, and excavation, without any compromise in safety. So, you can see just how important these international facilities are. We need to verify and validate our disposal concepts through tests at realistic scale and in real environments. Laboratory work is very important, but in this context it only goes so far. Thanks to our strong relationships with international counterpart organisations, we can run these experiments in existing facilities which are relevant to our GDF design, without needing to develop our own underground research laboratory at this point.

What does international collaboration mean to you?
 

Communication and relationships are so important to progression in science. It takes dedication, it takes effort. And not just from me, from all of us. We all want the same thing - to keep people safe for hundreds of thousands of years.

When you consider we’ve only been on the planet for 300,000 years, you get a sense of the enormity of our work. Nuclear waste doesn’t know anything about international borders so we need to connect, human to human, to build relationships that will help us implement the technical solutions to make nuclear waste permanently safe, sooner.


Argentina aims to be nuclear pioneer, President Milei says

Monday, 23 December 2024

Argentina's President Javier Milei has said "nuclear energy will make its triumphant return and we will not only not be left behind, but we intend to be pioneers".

Argentina aims to be nuclear pioneer, President Milei says
The president, centre, IAEA director general, right and Demian Reidel, left (Image: Argentina's presidential office)

The president, standing between his chief adviser Demian Reidel, who will oversee a new nuclear programme, and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, said "we are contemporaries of a true technological revolution ... the development of artificial intelligence opens a new frontier for this manifest destiny that we share as a species" but "many of the free nations that have always been at the forefront of technological development are now afraid of innovation and punish the technological sector with taxes and regulations". Argentina by contrast was "removing the regulations that have tied the hands of our people for decades and inviting the world's big capitals to cooperate with Argentina".

He added: "The potential for development in artificial intelligence is so immense that conventional energy will not be enough to supply this new demand, which is why we are convinced that a resurgence of nuclear energy will occur throughout the world, because despite the countless campaigns of discredit that some international foundations have mounted, nuclear energy is the only source that is sufficiently efficient, abundant and rapidly scalable to cope with the development of our civilisation.

"So, after decades of decline, nuclear energy will make its triumphant return and we will not only not be left behind, but we intend to be pioneers."

The outline of the plan announced, according to various reports, is initially for the construction of a small modular reactor on the Atucha site. According to the Financial Times, Reidel said the plan was to use Argentine technology, developed by its nuclear engineers, but with funding from a US investor joining a joint venture with Invap, with the goal of having a first plant online by 2030. No mention was made during the announcement about the existing Argentine SMR project, the CAREM-25.

The second stage of the government's nuclear plan is reported to be to develop uranium reserves to cover domestic demand and position the country as an exporter of high-value-added fuel elements.

Grossi said that the IAEA had signed a memorandum of understanding agreement with Argentina following the announcement, which aimed to expand their collaboration on small modular reactors "to meet the energy demands of data centres and AI applications".

The background
 

Argentina currently has three operable nuclear power units - Atucha 1, connected in 1974, Atucha 2, which was connected in 2014 and Embalse which was connected to the grid in 1983. Between them they generate about 5% of the country's electricity. There have been plans for a fourth unit, as Atucha III, with an EPC contract signed with China's CNNC in February 2022. It is unclear what the current status is of this project and whether it will be part of the nuclear programme.

The CAREM SMR - the name comes from Central Argentina de Elementos Modulares - is a 32 MWe prototype and is Argentina's first domestically designed and developed nuclear power unit. First concrete was poured in 2014, but construction has since been suspended a number of times. It is currently estimated to be about two thirds complete, and a Critical Design Review was ordered for it in May this year with reported uncertainty over funding.

IAEA commends Ghana on nuclear power programme progress


Monday, 23 December 2024

The International Atomic Energy Agency says Ghana is committed to the "continuous improvement of nuclear and radiation safety" and urges the government to ensure the independence of the country's Nuclear Regulatory Authority.

IAEA commends Ghana on nuclear power programme progress
Ghana has been considering both gigawatt and small modular reactors (Image: Nuclear Power Ghana)

This was the first Integrated Regulatory Review Service mission to Ghana, and took place from 25 November to 4 December with a team of 14 experts from 13 countries plus three IAEA staff members. It was requested by Ghana's government and its aim was a peer review of the "legal and regulatory framework for nuclear, radiation, radioactive waste and transport safety as well as the interface between safety and nuclear security".

The Integrated Regulatory Review Service team spent time with the management and staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) and staff from the ministries of energy and environment, science, technology and innovation. They visited the GHARR-1 research reactor and the radioactive waste management centre.

In its findings highlighting Ghana's commitment to safety, it noted that the NRA was an independent regulatory authority and the country had initiated "the strengthening of the regulatory framework for nuclear and radiation safety through the development of regulations and guides" and provided "support and advocacy for the NRA, through the provision of financial and human resources commensurate with the current national nuclear and radiation programme".

The mission team said the primary challenge was "the completion and issuance of regulations and guides to support the consistent and stable implementation of the National Regulatory Act", and recommendations included that the government "establish and implement national policies and strategies for safety and for radioactive waste management" and "establish and implement an enforcement policy and process, including criteria for corrective actions, for responding to non-compliance with regulatory requirements".

Thiagan Pather, mission Team Leader from the National Nuclear Regulator in South Africa, said: "The efforts and constructive engagement of NRA staff during the peer review process enabled the IRRS team to gain a comprehensive understanding of Ghana’s regulatory framework. As a country with ambitions for a nuclear power programme, it is important that the Government of Ghana and the Nuclear Regulatory Authority work together to deliver the improvements identified during the mission."

Aba Bentil Andam, NRA Board Chairperson, said: "The mission has provided the NRA with a clear understanding of the state of its regulatory infrastructure with reference to the IAEA Safety Standards. The results of the mission will be helpful to the NRA in its quest to improve the nuclear and radiation safety infrastructure to adequately ensure the protection of people and the environment."

Hildegarde Vandenhove, Director of the IAEA Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, said: "I am confident that the recommendations and suggestions by the IRRS review mission will be implemented by Ghana to strengthen their national regulatory framework for safety, and they intend to invite the IAEA for a follow-up mission within the next few years."

The final report of the mission will be provided to Ghana's government in about three months. Ghana has been developing plans for both gigawatt-scale nuclear power capacity and small modular reactors. It already uses nuclear and radiation technologies in healthcare, agriculture, research and industry.

Podcast: Nuclear energy's key moments in 2024

Monday, 23 December 2024

What were the most-read World Nuclear News stories, and what has World Nuclear Association Director General Sama Bilbao y León picked out as her key moments of 2024? See below, and listen to the full podcast episode for what to watch out for in 2025:

 

January
 

The start of the year was dominated by nuclear energy developments in the UK, with the then government launching a roadmap for reaching its ambition for the UK to have 24 GWe of nuclear generating capacity by 2050, representing about 25% of the country's projected electricity demand. There was also EDF's announcement that the timeline and cost estimate of Hinkley Point C had risen and the World Nuclear News podcast interview with Great British Nuclear's Simon Bowen about the country's SMR selection process. The report about Beijing Betavolt New Energy Technology Company's plan to mass produce a miniature atomic energy battery was also keenly read.

February
 

The big news story to start the month was EDF and KHNP being the two contenders left for the Czech new nuclear tender. Other well-read stories were Westinghouse signing an agreement with Community Nuclear Power Limited for a fleet of four AP300 SMRs in northeast England, a pioneering welding technique being developed and the news that US fusion energy developer Type One Energy Group had announced plans to build Infinity One - its stellarator fusion prototype machine - at Tennessee Valley Authority's Bull Run Fossil Plant.

March
 

The month's most read included one of Bilbao y León's key moments of the year - the attendance of 32 national leaders, and senior representatives, at the inaugural Nuclear Energy Summit co-organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency and Belgium. It was, she says, "a big moment and fantastic" to have the heads of state saying "loudly and boldly how nuclear energy was a key piece of their energy mix ... when governments speak multilateral development banks, the finance community and others need to listen, so I think that was a very important moment".

Also well read in March were stories covering the start of fuel loading at the 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor in India, and California-based Longview Fusion Energy Systems contracting Fluor Corporation to design what it hopes to be the world's first commercial laser fusion power plant. There was also significant news from Barakah 4, but more of that in September's entry.

April
 

New-build news dominated the charts with unit 2 of the Shin Hanul nuclear power plant in South Korea - the fourth Korean APR-1400 - entering commercial operation, as did the Vogtle 4 AP1000 in the USA. Staying in the US, TerraPower submitted its application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build the Natrium reactor demonstration project, near a retiring coal facility at Kemmerer in Wyoming. In the UK, the Nuclear Industry Association applied to the UK government for a justification decision for Newcleo's lead-cooled fast reactor, the LFR-AS-200, while in Ukraine work got under way at unit 5 of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant on the first of the planned wave of Westinghouse AP1000s

May
 

The month began with the US Senate passing the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act. The act, which was followed later in the year by Russia's response, was one of the key geopolitical moments of the year, with Bilbao y León saying a lot of work was taking place "to create policies and industrial strategies that are going to ensure there is the fuel that is needed ... if we are serious about tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050, clearly we need to make sure that we have in place a plan that is serious and realistic for how we are going to get this fuel that is going to help run all these new units".

The other most-read stories during May included Poland's Industria saying it had all the necessary ministerial opinions required to move on to the next stage of its construction of small modular reactor plants using Rolls-Royce SMR's technology, the G7 nations recognising nuclear's role in reaching climate targets, and the announcement that the first tier of El Dabaa unit 1's inner containment structure had been completed at the Rosatom-led project in Egypt.

June
 

Finland's various plans for new nuclear became a feature of the news agenda during the middle part of the year, with Steady Energy announcing it aimed to start construction of its first LDR-50 district heating reactor pilot plant in 2025. The US company Infinity Power was the latest to announce a breakthrough on nuclear battery development and Terrapower broke ground on its Natrium plant (see April). There was also the news that EDF had completed the purchase of a portion of GE Vernova's nuclear conventional islands technology and services including its Arabelle steam turbines, and the US announcement of cooperation to support Ghana's small modular reactor plans. And in fusion, there was the announcement of a revamped project plan for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor which aims for "a scientifically and technically robust initial phase of operations, including deuterium-deuterium fusion operation in 2035 followed by full magnetic energy and plasma current operation".

July
 

The big news story was Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power winning the Czech government's contest for at least two new nuclear power units in the country. The other most read developments included EDF announcing its plans to modify its Nuward small modular reactor design to focus on existing and proven technologies, and its decision to withdraw from the UK's selection process for which SMR technology to back. There was a lot of interest in reading/hearing from Southern Nuclear's Senior Vice President at Vogtle 3 and 4, John Williams, on the achievement of completing the first new US nuclear power units in more than 30 years - and the lessons which can be shared. South Korea's Mokpo National University opened the world's first SMR Ship Research Institute, aiming to develop a global hub for SMR ship research and education, and there was the news that four years after it shut down, NextEra Energy was looking into restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear power plant.

August
 

With the Olympics in full swing in Paris, the gold medal for most-read World Nuclear News story in August goes to Kairos Power announcing the start of site work and excavation for the Hermes Low-Power Demonstration Reactor, the first non-light-water reactor to be permitted in the USA in more than 50 years. Also on the podium was the news that China's State Council had approved five nuclear power projects - Xuwei Phase I, Lufeng Phase I, Zhaoyuan Phase I, San'ao Phase II and Bailong Phase I - with a total of 11 reactors. Plus South Africa pausing its nuclear procurement process, Westinghouse and EDF launching appeals to the Czech competition authorities about the tender process for the new nuclear units in the country and the plan for Lloyd's Register, Core Power and AP Moller - Maersk to conduct a regulatory assessment study to determine the safety and regulatory considerations for a potential nuclear-propelled container ship to undertake cargo operations at a port in Europe.

September
 

In a very newsy month, a group of 14 global financial institutions expressed their support, at New York Climate Week for the call to action to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Bilbao y León picked this out as another of the key moments of 2024: "This is an audience we have been trying to inform and educate about the opportunities in nuclear and for these 14 major banks and financial institutions to boldly and loudly say 'nuclear is something that we are considering and we support' was a very big moment and is opening new channels - we are starting to have conversations with the World Bank. We are having discussions with them on what is it that would it take, what information do they need in order to reassess their lending policies that currently do not include nuclear. So this was a very big moment in 2024."

The month also saw the announcement on the first day of World Nuclear Symposium in London that Barakah 4 had entered commercial operation. Also among the most read articles was the Czech Republic choosing UK firm Rolls-Royce SMR after assessing seven potential technology suppliers for its proposed small modular reactor programme.  Rolls-Royce SMR also featured among the four shortlisted technology developers left in the UK's SMR selection process as the final set of negotiations began. But the month also saw news from Constellation that made front page headlines and heralded a flurry of data centre-focused stories as it announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft that will see Three Mile Island unit 1 restarted, five years after it was shut down.

October
 

Taken together, the series of articles about Amazon and Google joining Microsoft in investing in nuclear energy to provide carbon-free and 24/7 energy for their data centres - including Deep Atomic launching its data centre-focused MK60 SMR - dominated the month. As Bilbao y León said: "For decades there was a feeling that energy efficiency and demand-side management would make sure there was a more-or-less flat energy demand. But it's been clear for the past year or two that that is no longer the case. We are going to see a huge increase in electricity demand ... big tech or metallurgical companies and others that are really becoming very pragmatic - how to get the energy in a way that is really what they need - which is without carbon emissions and 24/7".

The month also saw the first SMR projects selected by the European Industrial Alliance, Kazakhstan backing new nuclear in a referendum and continued uncertainty in Niger led to SOMAÏR, the operator of the Arlit uranium mine in Niger, deciding to suspend its activities from the end of October.  There had been due to be a referendum held on new nuclear in Slovenia in November but that was cancelled in October amid political differences. There was more positive news in Romania, where the US Export-Import Bank approved a final commitment for a USD98 million loan for pre-project services for the development of a first-of-a-kind NuScale small modular reactor in the country.

November
 

The most-read news in November was that the first of two demonstration Guohe One (CAP1400) reactors at Huaneng Group's Shidaowan site in China's Shandong province had been connected to the grid. The 1400 MWe pressurised water reactor design is intended to be deployed in large numbers across the country, as well as for export. The CAP1400 is an enlarged version of the CAP1000 PWR developed from the Westinghouse AP1000, with consulting input from the USA-based company. At COP29 in Azerbaijan six more countries signed the Net Zero Nuclear declaration backing the tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050 - El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Turkey. 

Bilbao y León picked this as another of the significant moments of the year, saying: "Expectations for some people had been low for COP29 but it was a very important event - nuclear has a key role to play and now the questions are not whether nuclear should be at COP, but pragmatic questions such as 'how do we get nuclear into the mix', 'how much nuclear is needed?' and 'what type of nuclear?'. We were very happy to be able to announce the six additional countries signing the tripling nuclear declaration and we engaged a lot with the work on carbon markets, which maybe went a bit under the radar, but carbon markets are going to be very important to drive investment in the right projects with the right technologies to achieve decarbonisation".

Other well-read developments were Russia announcing restrictions on exports of enriched uranium to the USA, the UK pushing back deadlines for key decisions on Sizewell C and the SMR selection process to spring 2025, and a key engineering, procurement and construction management contract signed for Romania's Cernavoda's units 3 and 4. Further chart-toppers were news about Oklo being cleared to begin site characterisation for its first-of-a-kind plant in Idaho in the US, and Heysham 2's station director Martin Cheetham telling the World Nuclear News podcast what was next for the plant.

December
 

The big news on 21 December was that the long-delayed Flamanville 3 EPR reactor in Normandy in northern France has begun delivering electricity to the grid. Other news proving popular as we headed towards the end of 2024 included Facebook owner Meta saying it was seeking proposals for as much as 4GW of nuclear capacity in the USA to "meet our AI innovation and sustainability objectives", Newcleo submitting its SMR design for UK assessment, US-based engineering company Amentum and Norwegian consulting firm Multiconsult Norge AS appointed by Halden Kjernekraft AS to evaluate the potential for constructing a small modular reactor at Halden in southeast Norway, Canada considering financing the Polish nuclear power plant project, Russia completing the preliminary design on a prototype fusion reactor, and, finally, the UK announcing life extensions for four of its nuclear plants.







Data Centers Are Eating the Grid Alive



By Julianne Geiger - Dec 20, 2024




The future of data centers is about to make a huge draw on the power grid. According to a DOE-backed report from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, U.S. data center energy use could nearly triple by 2028, eating up as much as 12% of the country’s electricity. Why? Blame AI and its insatiable hunger for powerful chips and energy-guzzling cooling systems.

Currently, data centers are responsible for a modest 4% of U.S. power demand. But with AI servers becoming the star of the show, the power draw has already doubled since 2017. The GPU chips that are needed to run complex machine learning algorithms are pushing the limits of what the grid can handle. And then there is the heat they generate, causing cooling systems to work overtime.

The report warns that this growth could strain electrical grids, spike energy prices, and raise a few eyebrows about the climate impact. Researchers are calling for better transparency around energy use and efficiency improvements, but Big Tech isn’t exactly eager to spill the tea on their proprietary power habits.


And don’t count on renewables to ride to the rescue just yet. A study last month highlighted that scaling up solar and wind power isn’t happening fast enough to keep up with this demand surge. Plus, when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow, the grid still needs fossil fuels to back it up.

If this trend keeps up, AI’s energy footprint might rival entire industries. So, while your chatbot’s witty replies might feel magical, powering that magic is no small feat. Unless the industry gets serious about efficiency, the real cost of our AI-powered future could be a blackout waiting to happen.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
Qatar Threatens to Halt LNG Exports to Europe Over Green Regulations


By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 23, 2024

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has threatened to stop LNG exports to the EU if the bloc strictly enforces its new corporate sustainability directive.

The directive could result in fines for non-compliant companies, potentially costing QatarEnergy 5% of its annual global revenue.

The EU needs Qatar's LNG supply, but the directive is facing backlash from other large corporations as well.


One of the world’s top LNG exporters, Qatar, is threatening to stop shipping its gas to the European Union if the bloc moves to strictly enforce a new corporate sustainability directive with fines on non-compliant firms, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published this weekend.

Earlier this year, the EU formally adopted the corporate sustainability due diligence directive. These new EU-wide rules introduce obligations for large companies regarding adverse impacts of their activities on human rights and environmental protection. The EU directive is part of the bloc’s efforts to align companies with which it trades with the goal of reaching net zero by 2050.

It also lays down the liabilities linked to the company obligations in sustainability. If these companies are found to be non-compliant on corporate sustainability, including environmental impact, they could be fined with 5% of their annual global revenues.

Qatar’s al-Kaabi, who is also president and CEO of QatarEnergy, said if these rules were strictly enforced, Qatar’s state giant could drop business with the EU.

“If the case is that I lose 5 per cent of my generated revenue by going to Europe, I will not go to Europe . . . I’m not bluffing,” al-Kaabi told FT.

“Five per cent of generated revenue of QatarEnergy means 5 per cent of generated revenue of the Qatar state. This is the people’s money . . . so I cannot lose that kind of money — and nobody would accept losing that kind of money,” the official added.

The EU directive is facing backlash from other large corporations, while the EU needs Qatar’s LNG as much as any other source of additional gas supply that’s not from Russia.

QatarEnergy has signed 27-year deals with European majors including Shell, Eni, and TotalEnergies to supply LNG to EU countries from its huge expansion projects in Qatar set to begin operations in 2026 and 2027.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Indian Oil Probes Allegations of Albemarle Bribes to State Firm’s Officials

By Charles Kennedy - Dec 23, 2024


Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), a state-owned oil giant, has launched an internal investigation over alleged bribes paid by Albemarle to IOC officials to secure contracts more than a decade ago, Indian media report.

Responding to news articles from last week, IOC said in a statement filed with the local stock exchange that “the Company is neither a party to nor these is any allegation against the Company in relation to the proceedings referred in the said news articles”.

The statement goes on to say that “However, the Company has initiated an internal fact finding review concerning the incident which allegedly occurred in 2009 to thoroughly understand the facts surrounding these allegations and to determine the appropriate steps to be taken.”

Last year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that Charlotte-based Albemarle Corporation, a global specialty chemicals company and a top lithium producer, agreed to pay more than $103.6 million to settle the SEC’s charges that it violated the anti-bribery, recordkeeping, and internal accounting controls provisions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

In India, Albemarle used a third-party intermediary to corruptly retain catalyst business with India’s state-owned oil company by avoiding Albemarle being blacklisted, the U.S. Department of Justice said at the time.

“According to the company’s admissions in connection with the Department’s resolution, between 2009 and 2017, Albemarle, through its third-party sales agents and subsidiary employees, conspired to pay bribes to government officials to obtain and retain chemical catalyst business with state-owned oil refineries in Vietnam, Indonesia, and India,” DOJ said.

Albemarle is thought to have obtained profits of approximately $98.5 million as a result of the scheme, according to DOJ.

“Albemarle’s eventual voluntary disclosure of fraud and subsequent efforts to remedy its business practices abroad are a step in the right direction for the company,” said U.S. Attorney Dena J. King for the Western District of North Carolina.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Will Trump Policies Slow Methane Emissions Cuts in the Permian?

NASA METHANE SATTELITE PHOTO


By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 23, 2024,

Methane emissions in the Permian Basin fell significantly in the past year, but the incoming Trump Administration's policies threaten to reverse this progress.

Trump's plans include rolling back Biden-era regulations on tailpipe emissions, fuel economy standards, and electric vehicle incentives.

Despite the potential policy changes, some analysts believe that energy companies will continue to reduce emissions due to commitments made to shareholders and investors.



Producers in the Permian basin, America’s top oil producing region, have made a lot of progress in reducing methane emissions, a recent report suggests, but the incoming Trump Administration could undo some of that progress, environmentalists warn.

The Biden Administration has enacted rules on reducing emissions from oil and gas operations, including a recently finalized methane fee that has been opposed by the industry.

Last year, emissions from the Permian fell by 26%, according to a recent study by S&P Global and Insight M Inc. Methane intensity declined even more, by over 30%, as absolute emission volumes fell while Permian oil and gas production continued to rise, the study found.

The results are encouraging, but with incoming President Donald Trump some progress could be undone as the President-elect has vowed to roll back Biden-era rules burdening the oil and gas industry, climate advocates say.

Trump’s transition team is said to be preparing radical changes to U.S. policy toward electric vehicles and tailpipe emissions. These could include axing the EV incentives and the government mandate for federal EV fleets, and rolling back the Biden Administration’s rules on tailpipe emissions and fuel economy standards, Reuters reported earlier this month, citing a draft document it has seen.

In a sign of what the energy industry can expect, Trump last month picked a shale boss, Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, as his nomination to lead the Department of Energy.

However, analysts say that the companies are now unlikely to swerve from the path of cutting emissions as they continue to promote their efforts in producing more oil and gas with fewer emissions.

“They’ve made commitments to their shareholders, they’ve set a plan in place, they’ve allocated capital,” Kevin Birn, an analyst at S&P, told the Financial Times, commenting on the findings of the study on the Permian methane emissions trends.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
The American Shale Patch Is All About Depletion Now


By Alex Kimani - Dec 22, 2024

Goehring & Rozencwajg: U.S. shale production peaked in late 2023 and is now declining.

Geological depletion rather than market dynamics poses the biggest challenge.

Novel technologies like CO2 injection offer hope for extending oil field lifespans.


With just a month left before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term at the Oval Office, oil prices have been struggling to find direction, intensifying the notion that oil markets seem content to wait for him to take office.

Trump has repeatedly vowed that he’ll push shale producers to ramp up output, even if it means operators “drill themselves out of business.”

But it’s not clear how he intends to accomplish this feat since U.S. oil is produced by independent companies and not a national oil company (NOC).

Last month, Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Upstream President Liam Mallon dismissed the notion that U.S. producers will dramatically increase output under a second Trump term. However, Trump’s drilling ambitions might be thwarted by an even bigger challenge: U.S. oilfields could be nearing their final act.

According to Goehring & Rozencwajg LLC, a fundamental research firm specializing in contrarian natural resource investments,

 U.S. shale output is in the early innings of a protracted decline, with depletion, not market dynamics or regulatory overreach, the chief culprit. 

The analysts had previously predicted that the explosive production growth triggered by the U.S. shale revolution would flatline in late 2024 or early 2025. 

However, the reality could be worse: According to data by the EIA, shale crude oil production peaked in November 2023, and has declined about 2% since then while shale dry gas production peaked that same month and has since slipped by 1% or 1 billion cubic feet per day. 

And, it’s about to get worse, with Goehring & Rozencwajg’s model predicting an even steeper decline going forward.

The contrarian investors have compared the unfolding situation to the oil crisis of the 1970s. They note that President Nixon responded to the first OPEC oil crisis in 1973 by launching Project Independence, which aimed to reverse the decline in U.S. output through deregulation and expedited permitting. 

Oil prices soared from $3.18 per barrel in 1973 to $34 per barrel by 1981, inducing an explosion in drilling activity. Consequently, the U.S. oil rig count jumped from 993 in 1973 to a staggering 4,500 by late 1981.

 Unfortunately, the surge in drilling was unable to counter the natural law of depletion: By the end of 1981, U.S. crude production had fallen to 8.5 million barrels per day, good for a 15% decline from the time Nixon launched his ambitious program. 

The analysts note that U.S. crude output hit a nadir of 5 million barrels per day in 2010, even as prices hovered around $100 per barrel.

 Goehring & Rozencwajg has labeled this phenomenon ‘The Depletion Paradox’, and have warned that higher prices alone will not be sufficient to counteract geological realities. The analysts have pointed to the famous aphorism by the legendary M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL): every hydrocarbon basin is a finite resource. In effect, the production of any oil and gas field begins at zero, rises as extraction ramps up, and ultimately reaches an upper limit that represents the total recoverable resource in the basin.

To exacerbate matters, U.S. producers won’t have the incentive of high prices under a second Trump administration: A new survey from law firm Haynes Boone LLC has revealed that banks are gearing up for oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of Trump’s new term.

Enhanced Oil Recovery

That said, there’s a growing likelihood that more novel technologies will come along and jumpstart U.S. oil and gas production, much like hydraulic fracturing revolutionized the U.S Shale Patch two decades ago. New research has revealed that injecting near-depleted oil wells with CO2 can extend their productivity for decades. Calgary-based senior geological advisor Menhwei Zhao has conducted an AAPG Bulletin study regarding the use of CCS in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). He analyzed more than 22 years of production data from the Weyburn Midale oil pool in Saskatchewan, which since 2000 has been receiving carbon dioxide injections thus making it the world’s longest-running EOR project. Zhao concluded that the pool would have stopped producing oil by 2016 without CO2 injection, but that “enhanced oil recovery could extend the pool’s lifespan to 39 or even 84 more years.” Although Zhao acknowledges that he focused on a specific project in Canada, he says he would expect to see “similar results” for large-scale CCS projects around the world.


Zhao’s claims might not be exaggerated: The Wasson Field’s Denver Unit CO2 EOR project resulted in a nearly seven-fold increase in crude production after injecting CO2.

Crude oil production in U.S. oil fields frequently encompasses three distinct phases: primary, secondary, and tertiary (or enhanced) recovery. During the primary recovery phase, gravity, the natural pressure of the reservoir and artificial lift techniques are used to drive oil into the wellbore. This initial phase typically recovers only about 10 percent of a reservoir's original oil in place (OOIP). Secondary recovery techniques are used to extend a field's productive life usually by injecting water or gas to displace oil and drive it to a production wellbore, typically resulting in the recovery of 20 to 40 percent of OOIP.

However, much of the easy-to-produce oil has already been recovered from U.S. oil fields, forcing producers to turn to several tertiary, or enhanced oil recovery (EOR), techniques. EOR technologies offer prospects for ultimately producing 30 to 60 percent, or more, of a reservoir's OOIP.

Three major categories of EOR have been found to be commercially successful: gas injection, chemical injection and thermal recovery. Gas injection is the most common EOR technology in the United States, accounting for nearly 60 percent of EOR production in the country. Gas injection uses gasses such as CO2, natural gas, or nitrogen that expand in a reservoir to push additional oil to a production wellbore while other gasses dissolve in the oil and help to lower its viscosity and improve its flow rate. CO2 injection has been used successfully throughout the Permian Basin of West Texas and eastern New Mexico, as well as in Kansas, Mississippi, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, Montana, Alaska, and Pennsylvania.



Source: DoE

The U.S. DoE is currently researching novel techniques that could significantly improve economic performance and expand the applicability of CO2 injection to a broader group of reservoirs. The DoE estimates that next-generation CO2-EOR has the potential to produce over 60 billion barrels of oil that would otherwise be left trapped in the rocks. It would take around 13 years for U.S. producers to pump that volume of oil at the current clip of ~13 million barrels per day.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com


U.S. Shale Nears Limits of Productivity Gains

By Irina Slav - Dec 16, 2024



Natural depletion in shale reservoirs is signaling the end of rapid growth.

Despite advancements like AI driving cost reductions and improving well output, there are physical and technological limits to shale production.

Declining prime acreage and natural reservoir limits suggest that U.S. shale’s production growth peak is near.



U.S. shale is the biggest source of oil and gas output growth on a global scale. It’s in every forecast and projection that sees continued depression in oil prices. But that role as a growth driver might be coming to an end due to natural processes.

Well productivity and efficiency improvements have been in the spotlight of U.S. shale oil and gas discourse ever since the industry served up a massive surprise to analysts by reducing the total rig count but boosting production by 1 million bpd last year.

The unexpected jump in output was attributed to efficiency gains that made it possible for drillers to extract more oil at lower cost, driving the substantial increase in 2023 overall production of hydrocarbons. Now, the Energy Information Administration has predicted that productivity improvements and efficiency gains would continue driving output higher. The question, as usual, is just how high.

In its latest Shot-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast that total U.S. oil production next year would hit 13.5 million barrels daily. That would be up from an estimated 13.2 million barrels daily this year. The estimated 2024 average itself was an increase from 12.9 million bpd for 2023. In other words, over the past two years, total U.S. production of crude oil has increased at a rate of 300,000 barrels daily. Yet shale specifically boomed—but this is about to end.

Well productivity in the Permian, the star shale play in the U.S. unconventional oil and gas industry, has declined by 15% since 2020, according to data from Enverus. However, at the same time, producers are drilling longer wells, and they are doing it more efficiently than before, squeezing ever more oil and creating a perception that there are no limits to the technological advancements that can keep that oil flowing.

As usual, there is a “but”. In this case, it goes like this: U.S. shale drillers—and, more specifically, drilling service providers—have done wonders of efficiency, but there are limits to all technological advancements. More importantly, there are also natural limits to shale reservoirs.

“We’ve tripled oil production in the last 15 years and we have doubled natural gas production.” But “there’s not a lot of gas left in the tank,” the chief executive of Quantum Energy Partners, Wil VanLoh, told Bloomberg back in September. “The US shale revolution has run its course,” VanLoh also said at the time, echoing warnings that some investors have been voicing for years, namely, that the pace of production growth that the U.S. shale industry has been keeping is unsustainable over a longer term.

Yet this doesn’t mean that growth is over for good. For one thing, AI has entered the oil patch and is helping drive additional efficiency gains, which has lowered breakeven costs in some parts of the patch, motivating higher production. According to Evercore ISI, AI and other tech could bring costs in the shale patch down by double digits as soon as this year. “There’ll be significant cost savings, at a minimum double digits, but probably in the 25% to 50% of cost savings in certain scenarios,” one analyst from KPMG, which compiled a report on the topic, told Bloomberg earlier this year.

There is also the factor of resilient demand for oil—perhaps more resilient than some forecasters would like it to be. This is, in fact, the strongest motivator for production growth anywhere. If there is demand for oil, there will be supply to respond to that demand—especially if producers can get the oil out of the ground more cheaply than before.


This is precisely what’s happening in much of the shale patch. In the Permian specifically, output from newly drilled wells has increased from some 350,000 bpd back in 2019 to over 450,000 bpd this year, per a recent report by the Energy Information Administration looking into the effects of improved efficiency in well output among 34 public oil companies. In evidence of the constraints that the industry faces, these same 34 public companies are currently producing as much oil as they were producing at the start of 2020—despite all the efficiency improvements, productivity gains, and lower costs.

Some would explain this with weakening demand, even though the oil demand growth trajectory remains on an upward curve despite apocalyptic predictions. A more likely reason for the EIA data—besides the devastating impact of pandemic lockdowns on demand—is natural depletion in some fields that offset stronger-than-expected growth in others.

U.S. shale producers are doing more with less, which has become something of their modus operandi in the past few years. Yet natural depletion is one fact of life that no one can change, and this fact of life means that as drillers run out of prime acreage and move on to relatively lower-quality reservoirs, production growth peak is on the horizon, as oilfield veteran David Messler wrote for Oilprice last year. Efficiency gains are certainly important—especially for investors who expect a steady stream of returns—but like everything else, these can’t last forever.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
DRILL BABY, DRILL

OPEC+ Frets Over U.S. Oil Output Growth Under President Trump

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 18, 2024

OPEC+ fears U.S. oil production could rise under Trump’s deregulation, pressuring oil prices and market share.

The new administration plans to prioritize domestic energy expansion, infrastructure, and LNG exports.

Stricter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could reduce global supply, influencing OPEC+ production strategies.




The OPEC+ group is wary that coming deregulation in the U.S. energy sector could boost U.S. oil production higher than forecast under incoming President Donald Trump, OPEC+ delegates have told Reuters.

More U.S. oil supply could further erode OPEC+’s market share and weigh down on oil prices, which the OPEC cartel and its allies are desperately trying to support with production cuts.

President-elect Trump’s return to the White House would likely mean less stringent environmental policies for the industry, “but we may see higher production in the United States, which is not good for us,” a delegate from an OPEC+ producer which is an ally to the United States told Reuters.

Although the U.S. industry has signaled no major wave of supply surge is coming, Trump’s friendly policies toward the sector could boost production to higher levels than expected previously.

OPEC+ May Be Facing Long-Term Production Cuts

Team Trump is preparing to make sweeping changes to the U.S. energy sector on day one. Boosting U.S. oil and gas drilling and accelerating permits for domestic energy infrastructure and LNG exports are expected to be top priorities for the new administration.

U.S. shale output growth has slowed and may never hit a 1 million barrels per day (bpd) annual increase again, as it did before Covid, as companies are now more focused on growing shareholder returns than growing production.

U.S. crude oil production continues to rise and will rise in 2025 over 2024, too, all forecasters and analysts say.

But “drill, baby, drill” is unlikely under Trump—a comment coming from none other than ExxonMobil.

Yet, the incoming administration could sway the global oil market balances and with this, the OPEC+ production policy going forward.

For example, tightening the screws on Iran and Venezuela with stricter enforcement of the U.S. sanctions could reduce supply from these countries. This could open the door for Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC+ producers to justify an increase in their supply.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Green Hydrogen Costs Set to Stay Too High For Too Long

ANTI GREEN ENERGY
HE IS CORRECT THOUGH; BLUE H2 IS HOW IT IS PRODUCED NOW


By Charles Kennedy - Dec 23, 2024

BNEF: green hydrogen may not become cost-competitive with other types of hydrogen until 2050.

Rising costs for electrolyzers mean that in 2050, green hydrogen would cost between $1.60 and $5.09 per kilogram.

Just a year and a half ago, BNEF expected green hydrogen cost production to undercut gray hydrogen by the end of this decade.




Green hydrogen will struggle to compete at price level with gray hydrogen made from natural gas at least until 2050—much longer than previously anticipated, according to new estimates by research firm BloombergNEF.

BNEF’s new report on hydrogen prices finds that green hydrogen, the one produced via electrolysis using renewable energy, will fail to reach price parity with gray hydrogen by the middle of the century, as costs have more than tripled from last year’s forecast.

Rising costs for electrolyzers mean that in 2050, green hydrogen would cost between $1.60 and $5.09 per kilogram, down from a current cost range of $3.74 to $11.70 per kilogram.

But gray hydrogen currently costs $1.11 to $2.35 per kilogram, and the cost is expected to remain around these levels by 2050.

In a 2023 report, BNEF said that producing green hydrogen in a new plant in 2030 could be as much as 18% cheaper than continuing to run an existing gray hydrogen plant in five major economies around the world.

Just a year and a half ago, BNEF expected green hydrogen cost production to undercut gray hydrogen by the end of this decade.

The latest report from Monday drastically changes the estimates, raises the estimated cost for green hydrogen three times, and says that price parity is unlikely to be reached soon.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the most vocal backer of all things renewable, has also warned that policy and demand uncertainty are slowing green hydrogen adoption.

Uncertainty around demand and incentives coupled with cost pressures are weighing on the global adoption of low-carbon hydrogen despite an uptick in final investment decisions in the past year, the IEA said in a report earlier this year.

According to the agency, the main reasons for the slow uptake of low-carbon hydrogen “include unclear demand signals, financing hurdles, delays to incentives, regulatory uncertainties, licensing and permitting issues and operational challenges.”

“[F]or these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
U.S. Solar Power Soared in 2024

By Felicity Bradstock - Dec 21, 2024

U.S. solar capacity increased by 29% in Q2 2024 and 21% in Q3, contributing to 64% of new electricity generation.

Domestic solar module manufacturing saw a sharp rise, with new factories built in key states like Alabama and Texas.

Despite growth, challenges such as tariffs, grid constraints, and skilled labor shortages may affect future expansion.




The U.S. has experienced record solar growth in recent years, supported by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and greater access to green funding. The Solar Energies Industry Association (SEIA) has recorded record levels of added solar capacity over the last year, as more solar projects were added to the grid countrywide, significantly increasing the contribution of solar power to U.S. electricity generation.

In quarter two of 2024, the U.S. solar market installed 9.4 GW of capacity, marking a 29 percent increase on the same period in 2023. In Q3, a further 8.6 GW was installed, with a 21 percent increase in installations from 2023. During this period, solar energy accounted for 64 percent of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid. Solar projects now generate enough electricity to power 37 million homes.

The states with the highest capacity of solar power are Texas and Florida, with 7.9 GW and 3.1 GW respectively. While a substantial increase was seen in commercial solar capacity in 2024, the SEIA expects to see a contraction of 26 percent in residential installations by the end of the year.

The U.S. is also investing in strengthening its domestic solar module manufacturing industry, supported by funding from the IRA and Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (BIL). The domestic module manufacturing capacity rose by over 10 GW to 31.3 GW in Q2 and by a further 9 GW in Q3, to almost 40 GW. This marks a significant increase from mid-2022 when the domestic manufacturing capacity stood at just 7 GW. The first U.S. cell manufacturing plant also opened in Q3 this year. The sharp rise in capacity suggests the influence the IRA and BIL have had on the sector, providing greater funding for green energy projects, as well as tax breaks and other financial incentives.

The U.S. is funding domestic manufacturing and increasing nearshoring activities to help make supply chains more resilient. This is part of the government’s aim to counter China’s dominance in green manufacturing, as well as respond to the severe supply chain constraints experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the “US Solar Market Insight Q4 2024” report by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, five manufacturing factories were built or extended in Alabama, Florida, Ohio, and Texas. The report also stated that, at full capacity, the U.S. can now produce enough solar modules to meet almost all domestic demand.

While the future policy outlook under President-elect Donald Trump remains uncertain, there is a strong solar project pipeline across the U.S. The SEIA currently expects the U.S. solar industry to install 40.5 GW in 2024, and an annual average of at least 43 GW between 2025 and 2029. Some of the principal sectoral constraints highlighted by the SEIA were the aging transmission infrastructure, which is not prepared for the influx of new solar power, a lack of skilled labor, and interconnection delays.

The American Clean Power (ACP) Association expects utility-scale U.S. solar installations to see record-breaking growth of more than 32 GW by the end of the year. “The U.S. solar market is projected to grow with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 6.6 percent from 2025 to 2030, reaching 37 GW of annual new installations in the final year of this decade,” the ACP stated. The organization cited the reduction in polysilicon prices as the driver for the positive short-term outlook but warned that the introduction of tariffs could increase costs.

An ACP November report states that while the incoming Trump administration may work “to change or remove certain portions of the IRA and accompanying guidance… the IRA is unlikely to be completely undone.”

Following record growth in several areas, the solar industry expects to suffer from high import costs under the Trump administration. In November, Trump said he planned to impose “an additional 10 percent tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China, as well as a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.

U.S. trade officials also set preliminary tariffs on solar cells from the four main export countries in Southeast Asia this year, after U.S. manufacturers complained that unfairly cheap products were flooding the market. The Commerce Department established preliminary anti-dumping rates of 53.3 percent to 271.28 percent for imports from Vietnam, 125.37 percent for Cambodia, 77.85 percent to 154.68 percent for Thailand, and 21.31 percent to 81.24 percent for Malaysia. China currently dominates the global solar supply and has large-scale operations in all four countries. A final decision on anti-dumping tariffs is expected by April 2025.

Despite the anticipated introduction of tariffs on solar cells, and the potential reduction in green funding under President Trump, the solar energy project pipeline remains strong. This year has seen record additions of commercial solar power. However, to encourage utility-scale additions in the coming years, greater investment must be provided to improve the U.S. grid and prepare it for the influx of solar-generated electricity.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
Saudi Arabia Becomes Top Buyer Of Russian Fuel Oil 

By Alex Kimani - Dec 23, 2024

Saudi Arabia was the leading buyer of Russian seaborne fuel oil in November.

Asian countries have become top buyers of Russia's fuel oil and VGO ever since the European Union imposed a full embargo on Russian oil products in February 2023.

India is no longer the biggest buyer of Russian crude.


Saudi Arabia was the leading buyer of Russian seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gasoil (VGO) exports in November, LSEG data has revealed. According to Reuters calculations based on LSEG data, Russian fuel oil and VGO exports grew 6% month-on-month in November to about 4.26 million metric tons. Asian countries have become top buyers of Russia's fuel oil and VGO ever since the European Union imposed a full embargo on Russian oil products in February 2023.

India is no longer the biggest buyer of Russian crude. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s imports of Russian crude fell a massive 55% in November--the lowest figure since June 2022--despite Russia continuing to sell its oil at a discount. India has lately been trying to diversify its oil supplies: Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during a visit to Guyana that his government views the South American country as key to India’s energy security. Modi told a special sitting of Parliament that he views Guyana as an important energy source and that he will encourage large Indian businesses to invest in the country.

Guyana did not immediately grant Modi’s wish, with India’s External Affairs Minister Jaideep Mazumdar saying talks will continue and that such a deal would ensure “greater predictability.” Guyanese Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat told reporters that Guyana is willing to supply India with a large amount of crude, if Exxon Mobil, the main operator in Guyana’s offshore oil production, agrees to such an arrangement.

“We know Exxon has to do some amount of changes to their lifting schedule and logistics because their preference is for the very large vessels that can accommodate two million barrels mainly because of distance and cost,” Bharrat said.

Meanwhile, CREA estimates that there was a 17% month-on-month increase in the discount on Urals grade crude oil to an average of $6.01 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil. Russia has lost an estimated EUR 14.6 bn in revenues from Urals grade crude exports due to sanctions.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Russia Loses Indian Oil Market Share to Middle East’s Exporters

By Charles Kennedy - Dec 23, 2024

India imported lower volumes of Russian crude oil in November.

Delhi boosted crude imports from Middle East countries.

In the months prior to November, India continued to boost crude imports from Russia.



India imported lower volumes of Russian crude oil in November while it boosted purchases of Middle Eastern crude, as Russia exported lower volumes overall while some Indian refiners were undergoing maintenance.

In the months prior to November, India continued to boost crude imports from Russia. Over the past two years, India has become a key buyer of Russia’s oil, while the attractiveness of cheaper crude supply has made Russia the single biggest supplier of oil to India.

But last month, India imported 1.52 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, down by 13% from October, according to ship-tracking data that Reuters has obtained from sources.

At the same time, imports from the Middle East into India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, jumped by 10.8% in November compared to the prior month, the data showed.

Russia’s share of Indian crude oil imports was at around 32%, while the share of the Middle Eastern oil exporters in Indian foreign oil supply jumped to 48%, a nine-month high.

Some Indian refiners reduced spot purchases of Russian crude oil amid the maintenance season, but continued to lift committed volumes under annual contracts with Middle Eastern producers, an India refining official told Reuters.

Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell in November, amid lower shipments to India, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed last month. Most of the decline in Russian shipments in November was seen at Russia’s Western ports on the Baltic and Black Sea, from where the majority of shipments to India depart.

Still, Russia continued to be the top supplier of crude oil to India in November, ahead of Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

The Kingdom, the world’s top crude exporter, saw its oil exports to Asia rise in November, while Russia’s crude sales in the world’s most important oil-importing region fell amid lower purchases by Moscow’s two key markets, China and India.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com