Deaths and repression sideline Suu Kyi's party ahead of Myanmar vote

Bangkok (AFP) – Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi's political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar's ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.

Issued on: 10/10/2024 - 

The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung -- a close confidante of Suu Kyi -- was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta's crackdown.

It came after party co-founder Tin Oo -- a military general turned democracy activist -- died of old age in June.

Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.

But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.

State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing "clearly reaffirmed" the military's plans to hold elections next year.

Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a "cunning" attempt by the junta to "earn some veneer of legitimacy", said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
Fighting peacock

The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.

The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame © STR / AFP/File

For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military's iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.

After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.

But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD's top leadership.

Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.

Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.

Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.

She remains widely popular in Myanmar, although her international standing has waned over her failure to stop a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya minority now the subject of a genocide case at the UN's top court.

Around a dozen parties have been permitted to re-register so far for next year's vote, including the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Main ally Beijing has backed the junta's plans for the polls and this year invited the USDP and three other parties for talks in China.

- 'Crushing repression' -

Some younger members of the NLD have turned to armed struggle since the coup, joining "People's Defence Forces" and ethnic rebels fighting the military -- and breaching a key NLD tenet of non-violence.

A shadow "National Unity Government" set up to overturn the coup has also drawn NLD members away, while splits have emerged between those underground in Myanmar and those in exile, according to party sources.

Party members who have stayed inside the country have faced severe consequences in the junta's crackdown.

Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics 

© Sai Aung MAIN / AFP/File

Phyo Zeya Thaw, a hip-hop artist turned NLD lawmaker was executed by the junta in 2022, in Myanmar's first use of capital punishment in decades.

Following the coup, he was accused by the junta of orchestrating several attacks on regime forces, including a shooting on a commuter train in Yangon that killed five policemen.

He was sentenced to death at a closed-door trial and executed, drawing huge criticism from rights groups.

"We will keep fighting for democracy against the regime," a second senior NLD member said, also requesting anonymity to speak from inside Myanmar.

"We will be back."

The NLD "has faced crushing repression for three decades and still holds together", said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.

Much hinges on its talisman Suu Kyi, 79, who languishes in a prison in the military-built capital, has not been seen in public for years and who has designated no successor, he added.

"What happens to the party after Suu Kyi's eventual passing is the major question, and whether it could ever regroup and be a viable national force."

© 2024 AFP

Myanmar to send rep to regional summit for first time in three years

SINCE THE MILITARY COUP


ByAFP
October 8, 2024

Myanmar's civil war will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos - Copyright AFP Nhac NGUYEN
Martin Abbugao and Damon Wake

Myanmar will send a representative to a regional summit this week for the first time in three years, a diplomatic source told AFP Tuesday, as the junta struggles to quell a civil war.

The conflict will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos from Wednesday, though more than three years of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis have had no impact.

ASEAN barred Myanmar’s junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup, and the generals have refused to send “non-political representatives” instead.

But Myanmar — one of 10 ASEAN member states — has sent a senior foreign ministry official as its representative to the three-day meeting in Vientiane, a Southeast Asian diplomat involved in the meetings told AFP.

Weeks after seizing power, the junta agreed to a “five-point consensus” plan aimed at restoring peace, but ignored it and carried on a bloody crackdown on dissent and armed opposition to its rule.

“The significance is that in a sense they are accepting the five-point consensus,” the diplomat told AFP.

“They may have thought that it’s better to have their own voice heard rather than be on the outside.”

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing attended an emergency ASEAN summit on the crisis in April 2021, but the bloc has refused to invite him to regular gatherings since.

Aung Kyaw Moe, permanent secretary at the Myanmar foreign ministry, attended a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday ahead of the main summit, AFP journalists saw.

The move comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, which has killed thousands and forced millions to flee their homes.

The junta has been reeling from battlefield defeats to ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy “People’s Defence Forces” that rose up to oppose its coup.

Last weekend, Indonesia hosted talks on the Myanmar conflict involving ASEAN, the European Union and the United Nations, as well as numerous anti-junta groups.



– Call for action –



ASEAN, long criticised as a toothless talking shop hamstrung from taking firm action by its principle of making decisions by consensus, has made little progress in its efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis.

The topic has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup, but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.

Myanmar’s neighbour Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict and has held its own bilateral talks with the junta, called for a more effective response from ASEAN.

“ASEAN must play a crucial role in restoring peace to Myanmar as soon as possible,” Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Monday.

“We will focus on working with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who will assume the ASEAN Chairmanship next year, and utilise diplomatic mechanisms to resolve this issue as swiftly as possible.”

Myanmar’s key ally China, which will join the ASEAN summit on Thursday, wants to see a deal to end the conflict on its doorstep, though it insists it will not interfere in “internal affairs”.

The South China Sea will be another key topic for leaders, after months of violent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the disputed waterway.

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims of several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

As well as ASEAN and China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada are all expected to attend the talks.

Philippines confronts China over South China Sea at ASEAN meet

Vientiane (AFP) – Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos challenged Chinese Premier Li Qiang over recent clashes in the South China Sea at regional summit talks on Thursday as fears grow that conflict could erupt in the disputed waterway.


Issued on: 10/10/2024 - 

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos challenged Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the ASEAN regional summit over recent clashes in the South China Sea

 © NHAC NGUYEN / AFP

Li met the leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at their gathering in Laos after a day of discussions dominated by the Myanmar civil war.

There has been a spate of violent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in recent months in waters around disputed reefs and islands in the South China Sea.

Marcos raised the issue in the meeting with Li, arguing that "you cannot separate economic cooperation from political security", a Southeast Asian diplomat who attended the meeting told reporters.

The Li summit was largely focused on trade and came the same day he met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who said Beijing had agreed to lift sanctions on the lucrative lobster industry.

However, Marcos told the meeting that ASEAN and China cannot pretend that all is well on the economic front when there are tensions on the political front, the Southeast Asian diplomat said.

Marcos also said both sides should hasten talks on a code of conduct in the sea.

Another ASEAN source said leaders stated their positions firmly, with Li insisting China had to protect its sovereignty.

ASEAN leaders repeated on Wednesday longstanding calls for restraint and respect for international law in the South China Sea, according to a draft summit chairman's statement seen by AFP.

The growing frequency and intensity of clashes in the disputed waterway are fuelling fears that the situation could escalate.

"The South China Sea is a live and immediate issue, with real risks of an accident spiralling into conflict," Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told fellow leaders in Wednesday's summit.

Beijing claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars in trade transits every year.

ASEAN members Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines also have competing claims to various small islands and reefs.
Clashes at sea

The meeting with Li followed a slew of violent clashes, particularly with the Philippines around the Spratly Islands.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang met regional leaders at the ASEAN summit in Laos and discussed recent clashes in the disputed South China Sea © Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

Chinese coast guard and other vessels have rammed, used water cannon against and blocked Philippine government vessels.

Vietnam also issued an angry condemnation this month after some of its fishermen were attacked and robbed off the Paracel Islands by what it called "Chinese law enforcement forces".

Beijing responded that the islands are its sovereign territory and its personnel were taking action to stop "illegal fishing" by the Vietnamese.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived to represent the United States at Friday's East Asia Summit, where he will back concerns about Beijing's increasingly assertive claims in the South China Sea.

Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, accused China of taking "escalatory and irresponsible steps designed to coerce and pressure many in the South China Sea".

China has for years sought to expand its presence in contested areas of the South China Sea, brushing aside an international ruling that its claim to most of the waterway has no legal basis.

It has built artificial islands armed with missile systems and runways for fighter jets, and deployed vessels that the Philippines says harass its ships and block its fishers.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Laos for the East Asia summit © TANG CHHIN SOTHY / POOL/AFP

The East Asia Summit will put Blinken in the same room as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov but the pair are not expected to hold one-on-one talks, with Washington believing Moscow is insincere in its calls for peace talks on Ukraine.

Thursday's diplomatic round also saw Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold his first face-to-face meetings with Li and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.

Ishiba and Yoon joined Li for talks with the bloc leaders in the annual "ASEAN Plus Three" format.

Li used his opening remarks to warn of the danger of "attempts to introduce bloc confrontation and geopolitical conflicts into Asia" -- a coded swipe at Ishiba's past calls for a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO.

© 2024 AFP

S. Africa offers a lesson on how not to shut down a coal plant

Middelburg,South Africa (AFP) – The cold corridors of South Africa's once-mighty Komati coal-fired power plant have been quiet since its shutdown in 2022 in what was trumpeted as a pioneering project in the world's transition to green energy.


Issued on: 10/10/2024 -

Before it turned off the switches in October 2022, the plant fed 121 megawatts into South Africa's grid 

© PAUL BOTES / AFP

Two years later, plans to repurpose the country's oldest coal power plant have amounted to little in a process that offers caution and lessons for countries intending to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and switch to renewables.

Jobs have been lost and construction for wind and solar energy generation has yet to start, with only a few small green projects underway.

"We cannot construct anything. We cannot remove anything from the site," acting general manager Theven Pillay told AFP at the 63-year-old plant embedded in the coal belt in Mpumalanga province, where the air hangs thick with smog.

Poor planning and delays in paperwork to authorise the full decommissioning of the plant have been the main culprits for the standstill, he said. "We should have done things earlier. So we would consider it is not a success."

Before it turned off the switches in October 2022, the plant fed 121 megawatts into South Africa's chronically undersupplied and erratic electricity grid.

The transition plan -- which won $497 million in funding from the World Bank -- envisions the generation of 150 megawatts via solar and 70 megawatts from wind, with capacity for 150 megawatts of battery storage.

Workers are to be reskilled and the plant's infrastructure, including its massive cooling towers, repurposed.

But much of this is still a long way off. "They effectively just shut down the coal plant and left the people to deal with the outcomes," said deputy energy and electricity minister Samantha Graham.
Disgruntled

Komati is the first coal plant scheduled for decommissioning, with five of the remaining 14 ones meant to follow by 2030 

© PAUL BOTES / AFP

Coal provides 80 percent of South Africa's power and the country is among the world's top 12 largest greenhouse gas emitters. Coal is also a bedrock of its economy, employing around 90,000 people.

South Africa was the first country in the world to form a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with international funders to move off dirty power generation, already receiving $13.6 billion in total in grants and loans, Neil Cole of the JETP presidential committee told AFP.

Komati is the first coal plant scheduled for decommissioning, with five of the remaining 14 ones meant to follow by 2030.

It had directly employed 393 people, the state energy firm Eskom that owns the plant told AFP. Only 162 remain on site as others volunteered for transfer or accepted payouts.

The plant had been the main provider of employment in the small town, where the quiet streets are pitted with chunks of coal. Today, several houses are vacant as workers from other provinces headed home after losing their jobs.

"Our jobs ending traumatised us a lot as a community," said Sizwe Shandu, 35, who had been contracted as a boilermaker at the plant since 2008.

The shutdown had been unexpected and left his family scrambling to make ends meet, he said. With South Africa's unemployment rate topping 33 percent, Shandu now relies on government social grants to buy food and electricity.

Pillay admitted that many people in the town of Komati had a "disgruntled view" of the transition. One of the mistakes was that coal jobs were closed before new jobs were created, he said. People from the town did not always have the skills required for the emerging jobs.

Eskom has said it plans to eventually create 363 permanent jobs and 2,733 temporary jobs at Komati.

One of the green projects underway combines raising fish alongside vegetable patches supported by solar panels © PAUL BOTES / AFP

One of the green projects underway combines raising fish alongside vegetable patches supported by solar panels.

Seven people, from a planned 21, have been trained to work on this aquaponics scheme, including Bheki Nkabinde, 37.

"Eskom has helped me big time in terms of getting this opportunity because now I've got an income, I can be able to support my family," he told AFP, as he walked among his spinach, tomatoes, parsley and spring onions.

The facility is also turning invasive plants into pellets that are an alternative fuel to coal and assembling mobile micro power grids fixed to containers. A coal milling workshop has been turned into a welding training room.
Mistakes and lessons

The missteps at Komati are lessons for other coal-fired power plants marked for shutdown, Pillay said. For example, some now plan to start up green energy projects parallel to the phasing out of fumes.

But the country is "not going to be pushed into making a decision around how quickly or how slowly we do the Just Energy Transition based on international expectations", said Graham.

South Africa has seven percent renewable energy in its mix, up from one percent a decade ago, she said. And it will continue mining and exporting coal, with Eskom estimating that there are almost 200 years of supply still in the ground.

Workers are to be reskilled and the plant's infrastructure, including its massive cooling towers, repurposed © PAUL BOTES / AFP

The goal is to have a "good energy mix that's sustainable and stable", Graham said.

Since South Africa's JETP was announced, Indonesia, Vietnam and Senegal have struck similar deals, but there has been little progress towards actually closing coal plants under the mechanism.

Among the criticisms is that it offers largely market-rate lending terms, raising the threat of debt repayment problems for recipients.

© 2024 AFP

Mumbai delcares day of mourning for Indian industrialist Ratan Tata

Mumbai (AFP) – Crowds of mourners gathered in India's financial capital Mumbai on Thursday for the funeral of industrialist Ratan Tata, hailed as a "titan" who led one of the country's biggest conglomerates.


Issued on: 10/10/2024 - 

Ratan Tata, who died aged 86 on Wednesday, transformed the Tata Group into a sprawling enterprise, with a portfolio ranging from software to sports cars 

© SUJIT JAISWAL / AFP

Tata, who died aged 86 on Wednesday, transformed the Tata Group into a sprawling international enterprise, with a portfolio ranging from software to sports cars.

His coffin, draped in an Indian flag, was flanked by a guard of honour, with a marching band of trumpets and drums accompanying the procession.

Mumbai has declared a day of mourning, with the funeral rites to take place on Thursday afternoon.

"A titan of Indian industry", The Hindu newspaper called him on its front-page. "India loses its crown jewel", the Hindustan Times wrote.

The hundreds who queued to pay tribute on Thursday included a mix of ordinary mourners, high-profile business leaders, politicians and Tata employees.

Abdul Khan, 52, described Tata's passing as both a "personal loss" and a "loss for the country", praising him for his philanthropy.

"He made so many lives better, not just the people who worked for him, but everybody," he said.

Tributes also poured in from fellow industrialists, with Asia's richest man Mukesh Ambani saying it was a "big loss, not just to the Tata group, but to every Indian".

Tata was born in Mumbai in 1937 into a family of Parsis -- a proud but dwindling community which played an outsized role in the city's business affairs under British rule.

He had intended to chart his own course in life as an architect after graduating from Cornell University in New York.

'Visionary'

Ratan Tata's coffin, draped in an Indian flag, was carried through the streets flanked by a guard of honour, with a marching band accompanying the procession 

© Punit PARANJPE, Punit PARANJPE / AFP

But an appeal from his grandmother saw him return to India in 1962 and join the sprawling family business, beginning work as a factory floor labourer and sleeping in a hostel for trainees.

He took over the family empire in 1991, riding the wave of the radical free-market reforms India had just unleashed that year.

Tata's 21 years at its helm saw the salt-to-steel conglomerate expand its global footprint.

His 2008 decision to purchase Britain's loss-making Jaguar and Land Rover carmakers for $2.3 billion burnished his reputation when Tata Group was able to restructure both brands and return them to profit the following year.

The Tata Group said his philanthropy work "touched the lives of millions."

"From education to healthcare, his initiatives have left a deep-rooted mark that will benefit generations to come," the company added.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Tata "a visionary business leader, a compassionate soul and an extraordinary human being."

Modi praised Tata for providing "stable leadership to one of India's oldest and most prestigious business houses".

© 2024 AFP

AUSTERITY IS NEOLIBERAL PAIN

France’s minority government set to present make-or-break austerity budget

The French government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Thursday is set to deliver its 2025 budget, which is viewed as key to the new government's survival. A spiralling fiscal deficit requires spending cuts and tax hikes, measures that are unpopular with parties on the left and right, increasing the pressure on France's weak centrist coalition.


Issued on: 10/10/2024

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's new government presents its 2025 budget on October 10, 2024. © Stephanie Lecocq, Reuters

France's government is to deliver its 2025 budget on Thursday with plans for 60 billion euros ($65.68 billion) worth of tax hikes and spending cuts to tackle a spiralling fiscal deficit.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier's new government is under increasing pressure from financial markets and France's European Union partners to take action after tax revenues fell far short of expectations this year and spending exceeded them.

But the budget squeeze, equivalent to two points of national output, has to be carefully calibrated to placate opposition parties, who could not only veto the budget bill but also band together and topple the government with a no-confidence motion.

Lacking a majority by a sizeable margin, Barnier and his allies in President Emmanuel Macron's camp will have little choice but to accept numerous concessions to get the budget bill passed, which is unlikely before mid to late December.

The far-right National Rally, whose tacit support Barnier needs to survive any no-confidence motion, has already helped derail a government proposal to postpone a pension increase by six months to save 4 billion euros.

Members of Macron's party are also loathe to see the president's legacy of tax-cutting go up in smoke, with his former prime minister Gabriel Attal saying on Wednesday: "The budget is light on reforms and too heavy on taxes."

Barnier has said he will spare the middle class and instead target big companies with a temporary surtax and people earning over half a million euros per year.

All taxpayers will nonetheless be hit by plans to restore a levy on electricity consumption to where it was before an emergency reduction during the 2022-2023 energy price crisis.

The government has said the budget bill will reduce the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year from 6.1% this year - higher than almost all other European countries - as a first step towards bringing the shortfall into line with an EU limit of 3% in 2029.

While tax hikes will make up one third of the 60 billion euro budget squeeze, the rest will come from spending cuts, with 20 billion cutting across France's ministries and the rest hitting separate spending on welfare, health, pension and local government budgets.

France's borrowing costs surged after Macron called a snap parliamentary election and his centrist party then lost to a left-wing alliance. Financial markets are likely to pay close attention to whether the budget can get through parliament without being watered down too much.

The budget will also face scrutiny from the European Commission, which has subjected France to an excessive deficit procedure for falling foul of the EU's fiscal rules.

(Reuters)

Two months on, Donbas soldiers begin to question Kursk offensive

Kramatorsk (Ukraine) (AFP) – Two months into Ukraine's offensive on Russian territory, questions are growing in Ukrainian ranks over the long-term strategy as Russian troops advance steadily in other areas.

Issued on: 10/10/2024 

A Ukrainian artillery crew fires towards Russian positions on the front line in the Donetsk region © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

The incursion launched on August 6 from northeastern Ukraine into Russia's Kursk region caught Moscow off guard and boosted the morale of Ukrainians exhausted more than two years into Russia's invasion.

Kyiv said one of the aims of the offensive -- the largest by a foreign army on Russian soil since World War II -- was to divert Moscow's forces from fighting in eastern Ukraine.

"Perhaps the enemy pulled away from some other directions, perhaps from the reserves, but we did not feel any significant changes here," said Oleksandr, a soldier deployed near Toretsk.

"If this is a short-term operation, it will strengthen us," said Bogdan, a serviceman sitting at a cafe in Druzhkivka.

"If it's a long-term operation and we plan to stay in Kursk, it will deplete our main resources."

Russian offensive 'accelerating'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated soldiers who have "proven that they can push the war into Russia" in a message on Sunday marking two months since the operation began.

Zelensky says the Kursk offensive had slowed down Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.

But data supplied by the Institute for the Study of War and analysed by AFP shows Moscow made its biggest monthly gains since October 2022, advancing on 477 square kilometres (184 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in August.

Russian troops last week seized the city of Vugledar, and are approaching Pokrovsk, a former logistics hub.

A resident stands on the balcony of an apartment building damaged in an overnight Russian strike in the Donetsk region © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

"The Russian army's offensive is accelerating -- at the cost of heavy losses -- we can't say that the Kursk offensive has fulfilled its goals," said Yohann Michel, a French military expert and Research Fellow at the IESD Lyon.

The offensive only "showed something is possible with the Ukrainian armed forces and that it is possible to enter Russia without it causing an apocalypse", he added.
'Beautiful' picture

For many Ukrainian soldiers, the Kursk offensive is still a source of pride.

Sergiy, a soldier just back from Kursk, said the morale and political gains were worth the gamble.

Ukraine captured scores of Russian conscripts in the Kursk region who can help Kyiv get its own prisoners of war back.

And the Kursk operation, Sergiy said, created "a beautiful propaganda picture that Ukraine can conquer and conduct offensive operations".

That signal was important to Ukraine's exhausted population and servicemen.

"I think that this particular country (Russia) should go through everything that it has done in our country," said another soldier named Sergiy from the 43rd brigade.

"At the same time, we don't do any of the horrible things that the soldiers of the Russian Federation have done, are doing, and continue to do," he said.

Dmytro, an artilleryman from the same brigade, said he was jubilant when he watched his fellow soldiers pour into Russia, hundreds of kilometres away from the Donbas region where he was posted.

"I just felt pride for our soldiers, that they had the inspiration to fight the enemy on its own territory. Russia, which invaded our country, will feel the same as us and will see what war is," he said.

What next?

The operation also aimed to show Ukraine's Western backers, who have been dragging their feet in providing more aid, that their support can have a visible impact.

Kyiv's main ally, the United States, will soon hold elections that could carry Ukraine-sceptic Donald Trump back to the White House.

If Ukraine had to enter negotiations, holding a slice of Russian territory could improve its position.

But the prospect of any talks seems a distant one.

"Is this operation a success? Militarily, not really. The morale gains are temporary and fading," said Olivier Kempf, an associate fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

"It makes sense in view of negotiations... but if you don't have negotiations in mind, it's completely absurd."

And, paradoxically, Russia could gain from keeping Ukrainian troops away from the main front in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian servicemen from the 43rd Artillery Brigade take a break at a position on the front line in Donetsk © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

"Russia can turn this initial setback into a real strategic asset," said Kempf, who also heads the strategic research firm La Vigie.

Near the eastern front, some worry that Ukraine could get bogged down in Kursk.

"Now the question is what we do next," said one soldier, who wished to remain anonymous.

"Where will we get the people, the strength and the means to continue this story or somehow complete it? God knows how this story will end."

© 2024 AFP

Uniqlo owner reports record annual earnings

Tokyo (AFP) – Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing on Thursday announced "a record high performance in fiscal 2024" with domestic profits in Japan boosted by hot summer weather and a tourism boom.

Issued on: 10/10/2024

Fast Retailing said 'buoyant demand from overseas visitors also contributed to the increase in Uniqlo Japan revenue' © Kazuhiro NOGI / AFP

The company also reported "significant increases in both revenue and profit" for international stores of casualwear giant Uniqlo.

Fast Retailing -- the world's third biggest clothing manufacturer and retailer after Zara owner Inditex and Sweden's H&M -- reported a 25 percent on-year jump in net profit to 371.9 billion yen ($2.5 billion).

The firm's earnings have hit new records for several years running since the Covid-19 pandemic eased as it pursues an aggressive international expansion strategy.

Warm weather over the winter squeezed sales slightly for Uniqlo stores in Japan, famous for their down jackets.

"However, same-store sales subsequently increased by 11.7 percent year-on-year in the second half from 1 March through 31 August 2024 thanks to consistently high temperatures," the company said in a statement.

Japan's summer this year was its joint warmest on record, and climate scientists predict that 2024 will be the hottest ever for the Earth because of a warming planet.

Domestic Uniqlo stores maintained a "strategic inventory of core summer ranges through the end of the summer season" and enhanced its marketing initiatives, Fast Retailing said.

Japan is also welcoming a record influx of tourists and is expected to have a total 35 million overseas visitors in 2024.

"Buoyant demand from overseas visitors also contributed to the increase in Uniqlo Japan revenue as Uniqlo brand recognition continues to rise worldwide," Fast Retailing said.

For Uniqlo overseas, operating profit margins "improved significantly in both North America and Europe".

Sales in mainland China and Hong Kong were strong in the first half of the business year but more sluggish in the second half, it added.

The company put this down to "a slowdown in consumer appetite, unseasonal weather, and product lineups that did not fully satisfy the needs of local customers".

Fast Retailing also operates the budget GU clothing brand, which reported a jump in revenue and profit for the financial year.

© 2024 AFP

Indonesia biomass drive threatens key forests: report

Jakarta (AFP) – Indonesia's push to add wood-burning to its energy mix and exports is driving deforestation, including in key habitats for endangered species such as orangutans, a report said Thursday.


Issued on: 10/10/2024 -

A Sumatran orangutan, one of the species at risk from deforestation according to the new report 

© HENDRA SYAMHARI / AFP

Bioenergy, which uses organic material like trees to produce power, is considered renewable by the International Energy Agency as carbon released by burning biomass can theoretically be absorbed by planting more trees.

But critics say biomass power plants emit more carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than modern coal plants, and warn that using biomass to "co-fire" coal plants is just a way to extend the life of the polluting fossil fuel.

Producing the wood pellets and chips used for "co-fire" coal plants also risks driving deforestation, with natural forests cut down and replaced by quick-growing monocultures.

That, according to a report produced by a group of Indonesian and regional NGOs, is exactly what is happening in Indonesia, home to the world's third-largest rainforest area.

"The country's forests face unprecedented threats from the industrial scale projected for biomass demand," said the groups, which include Auriga Nusantara and Earth Insight.

Indonesia's production of wood pellets alone jumped from 20,000 to 330,000 tonnes from 2012 to 2021, the report said.

Auriga Nusantara estimates nearly 10,000 hectares of deforestation has been caused by biomass production in the last four years.
Forests for 'human survival'

But the report warns that much more is at risk as Indonesia ramps up biomass, particularly in its coal-fired power plants.

The report looked at existing co-firing plants and pulp mills around Indonesia and the 100 kilometres (62 miles) surrounding each.

They estimate more than 10 million hectares of "undisturbed forest" lie within these areas and are at risk of deforestation, many of which "significantly overlap" with the habitat of endangered species.

Animals at risk include orangutans in Sumatra and Borneo, the report said.

Using wood to achieve just a 10 percent reduction in coal at Indonesia's largest power plants "could trigger the deforestation of an area roughly 35 times the size of Jakarta," the report warned.

Indonesia's environment and forestry ministry officials did not immediately respond to AFP's request for comment.

Indonesia saw a 27 percent jump in primary forest loss last year after a downward trend from a peak in 2015-2016, according to the World Resources Institute.

The groups also point the finger at growing demand in South Korea and Japan, two major export destinations for Indonesia's wood pellets.

They urged Indonesia to commit to protecting its remaining natural forest and reform its energy plans to focus on solar, while banning new coal projects.

Japan and South Korea should end biomass incentives and focus on cleaner renewable options, the group urged.

"There are no math tricks that can justify burning forests for energy," the NGOs said.

"Science has clearly proven the vital role of tropical forests for climate stability, biodiversity and human survival."

© 2024 AFP

MARXIST PRESIDENT

Sri Lanka recovering faster than expected: World Bank

Colombo (AFP) – Cash-strapped Sri Lanka's economy was recovering faster than expected, the World Bank said Thursday, doubling the island's growth forecast to 4.4 percent for 2024.

Issued on: 10/10/2024 - 

Traders at a vegetable market in Colombo; the World Bank says the island's 2022 economic crisis almost doubled the number of people pushed into poverty

 © Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP

Tourism and financial services had bounced back, along with improvements in construction, leading to the Bank's upward revision of the forecast of 2.2 percent made in April.

Sri Lanka's growth is expected to moderate next year to 3.5 percent and a slower 3.1 percent in 2026, the Bank said.

The island's 4.4 percent growth forecast for 2024 was, however, lower than the South Asia region's 6.4 percent, revised data of the World Bank showed.

The Bank "cautions" that Sri Lanka's recovery remained fragile and hinged on maintaining stability.

It also called for completing a restructure of Sri Lanka's external debt and continuing reforms to increase medium-term growth and reduce poverty.

The international lender on Monday granted a new $200 million loan to bolster economic recovery, the first foreign funding since leftist President Anura Kumara Dissanayake won elections.

Dissanayake, a self-avowed Marxist, took power last month on the back of public anger over the island's 2022 economic meltdown and promising to reverse steep tax hikes.

The new administration is maintaining a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, but has said it will renegotiate some of the harsh austerity measures.

Sri Lanka defaulted on its external debt in 2022 after running out of foreign exchange to finance even the most essential imports such as food, fuel and medicines.

Months of street protests against acute shortages led to the toppling of then leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

The World Bank has previously said the island's economic crisis had almost doubled the number of people pushed into poverty, or living on less than $3.60 a day.

About 13 percent of Sri Lanka's 22 million population lived in poverty just before the 2022 crisis. The poverty figure almost doubled to 25.9 percent in 2023.

The World Bank expects poverty levels to remain high for the next two years.

© 2024 AFP

'RARE' CANADIAN TAKEOVER BID

7-Eleven owner restructures to fight takeover

Tokyo (AFP) – The owner of 7-Eleven announced a major restructuring on Thursday as it seeks to boost its share price and fend off what would be the biggest foreign takeover of a Japanese firm.

Issued on: 10/10/2024 -

7-Eleven is the world's biggest convenience store chain

 © ANGELA WEISS / AFP

Seven & i Holdings rejected a $40-billion takeover offer last month from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT) but the Canadian group has since then reportedly sweetened its offer.

7-Eleven "konbini" are a ubiquitous lifeline for Japan's ageing population and a cherished one-stop shop for everything from rice balls to concert tickets to photocopies.

Second-quarter earnings published on Thursday, however, showed flagging sales with the company cutting its full-year operating profit outlook.

Seven & i announced plans to spin off non-core businesses into a new holding company comprising its supermarket food business, speciality stores and other businesses.

It said it would consider an initial public offering (IPO) of the new unit and bringing in strategic partners "to unlock value for the Company's shareholders and other stakeholders".

Creating the new unit allows Seven & i to focus solely on 7-Eleven -- the world's biggest convenience store chain with more than 85,000 outlets worldwide, a quarter of them in Japan.

An improved share price would also make a takeover attempt by ACT more expensive for the Canadian firm, while also easing pressure from shareholders pressing management to restructure.

7-Eleven began in the United States, but the franchise has been wholly owned by Seven & i since 2005.

Seven & i had said ACT's first proposal of $40 billion "grossly undervalues" its business and could face regulatory hurdles.

The Japanese company said on Wednesday it had received a revised offer but declined to give details.

Bloomberg News and other media outlets reported that ACT had improved its offer by around 20 percent to around seven trillion yen ($47 billion). ACT declined to comment.

Seven & i shares have climbed more than 30 percent since the takeover saga began but are still trading below the reported level of ACT's new offer.

Its shares closed up 4.7 percent on Wednesday, having initially surged nearly 12 percent on news of the new ACT offer. They edged down less than one percent on Thursday.

The new holding company will include 31 businesses, such as supermarket chains Ito-Yokado, York-Benimaru and baby goods shop Akachan Honpo.

Seven & i also said it plans to change its name, tentatively to 7-Eleven Corporation, which will be finalised at a shareholders' meeting.

Couche-Tard, which began with one store in the city of Laval in 1980, now runs nearly 17,000 convenience store outlets worldwide.

In 2021, Couche-Tard dropped a takeover bid worth 16 billion euros ($17 billion today) for French supermarket Carrefour after the French government said it would veto the deal over food security concerns.

It is unclear if Japan's new government under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba would do the same, but the finance ministry designated Seven & i a "core" industry last month.

© 2024 AFP