Deaths and repression sideline Suu Kyi's party ahead of Myanmar vote
Bangkok (AFP) – Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi's political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar's ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.
Issued on: 10/10/2024 -
The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung -- a close confidante of Suu Kyi -- was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta's crackdown.
It came after party co-founder Tin Oo -- a military general turned democracy activist -- died of old age in June.
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.
But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.
State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing "clearly reaffirmed" the military's plans to hold elections next year.
Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a "cunning" attempt by the junta to "earn some veneer of legitimacy", said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
Fighting peacock
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.
Bangkok (AFP) – Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi's political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar's ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.
Issued on: 10/10/2024 -
The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung -- a close confidante of Suu Kyi -- was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta's crackdown.
It came after party co-founder Tin Oo -- a military general turned democracy activist -- died of old age in June.
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.
But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.
State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing "clearly reaffirmed" the military's plans to hold elections next year.
Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a "cunning" attempt by the junta to "earn some veneer of legitimacy", said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
Fighting peacock
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame © STR / AFP/File
For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military's iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.
After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.
But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD's top leadership.
Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.
Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.
She remains widely popular in Myanmar, although her international standing has waned over her failure to stop a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya minority now the subject of a genocide case at the UN's top court.
Around a dozen parties have been permitted to re-register so far for next year's vote, including the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Main ally Beijing has backed the junta's plans for the polls and this year invited the USDP and three other parties for talks in China.
- 'Crushing repression' -
Some younger members of the NLD have turned to armed struggle since the coup, joining "People's Defence Forces" and ethnic rebels fighting the military -- and breaching a key NLD tenet of non-violence.
A shadow "National Unity Government" set up to overturn the coup has also drawn NLD members away, while splits have emerged between those underground in Myanmar and those in exile, according to party sources.
Party members who have stayed inside the country have faced severe consequences in the junta's crackdown.
For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military's iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.
After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.
But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD's top leadership.
Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.
Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.
She remains widely popular in Myanmar, although her international standing has waned over her failure to stop a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya minority now the subject of a genocide case at the UN's top court.
Around a dozen parties have been permitted to re-register so far for next year's vote, including the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Main ally Beijing has backed the junta's plans for the polls and this year invited the USDP and three other parties for talks in China.
- 'Crushing repression' -
Some younger members of the NLD have turned to armed struggle since the coup, joining "People's Defence Forces" and ethnic rebels fighting the military -- and breaching a key NLD tenet of non-violence.
A shadow "National Unity Government" set up to overturn the coup has also drawn NLD members away, while splits have emerged between those underground in Myanmar and those in exile, according to party sources.
Party members who have stayed inside the country have faced severe consequences in the junta's crackdown.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics
© Sai Aung MAIN / AFP/File
Phyo Zeya Thaw, a hip-hop artist turned NLD lawmaker was executed by the junta in 2022, in Myanmar's first use of capital punishment in decades.
Following the coup, he was accused by the junta of orchestrating several attacks on regime forces, including a shooting on a commuter train in Yangon that killed five policemen.
He was sentenced to death at a closed-door trial and executed, drawing huge criticism from rights groups.
"We will keep fighting for democracy against the regime," a second senior NLD member said, also requesting anonymity to speak from inside Myanmar.
"We will be back."
The NLD "has faced crushing repression for three decades and still holds together", said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.
Much hinges on its talisman Suu Kyi, 79, who languishes in a prison in the military-built capital, has not been seen in public for years and who has designated no successor, he added.
"What happens to the party after Suu Kyi's eventual passing is the major question, and whether it could ever regroup and be a viable national force."
© 2024 AFP
Phyo Zeya Thaw, a hip-hop artist turned NLD lawmaker was executed by the junta in 2022, in Myanmar's first use of capital punishment in decades.
Following the coup, he was accused by the junta of orchestrating several attacks on regime forces, including a shooting on a commuter train in Yangon that killed five policemen.
He was sentenced to death at a closed-door trial and executed, drawing huge criticism from rights groups.
"We will keep fighting for democracy against the regime," a second senior NLD member said, also requesting anonymity to speak from inside Myanmar.
"We will be back."
The NLD "has faced crushing repression for three decades and still holds together", said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.
Much hinges on its talisman Suu Kyi, 79, who languishes in a prison in the military-built capital, has not been seen in public for years and who has designated no successor, he added.
"What happens to the party after Suu Kyi's eventual passing is the major question, and whether it could ever regroup and be a viable national force."
© 2024 AFP
SINCE THE MILITARY COUP
ByAFP
October 8, 2024
Myanmar's civil war will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos - Copyright AFP Nhac NGUYEN
Martin Abbugao and Damon Wake
Myanmar will send a representative to a regional summit this week for the first time in three years, a diplomatic source told AFP Tuesday, as the junta struggles to quell a civil war.
The conflict will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos from Wednesday, though more than three years of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis have had no impact.
ASEAN barred Myanmar’s junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup, and the generals have refused to send “non-political representatives” instead.
But Myanmar — one of 10 ASEAN member states — has sent a senior foreign ministry official as its representative to the three-day meeting in Vientiane, a Southeast Asian diplomat involved in the meetings told AFP.
Weeks after seizing power, the junta agreed to a “five-point consensus” plan aimed at restoring peace, but ignored it and carried on a bloody crackdown on dissent and armed opposition to its rule.
“The significance is that in a sense they are accepting the five-point consensus,” the diplomat told AFP.
“They may have thought that it’s better to have their own voice heard rather than be on the outside.”
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing attended an emergency ASEAN summit on the crisis in April 2021, but the bloc has refused to invite him to regular gatherings since.
Aung Kyaw Moe, permanent secretary at the Myanmar foreign ministry, attended a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday ahead of the main summit, AFP journalists saw.
The move comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, which has killed thousands and forced millions to flee their homes.
The junta has been reeling from battlefield defeats to ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy “People’s Defence Forces” that rose up to oppose its coup.
Last weekend, Indonesia hosted talks on the Myanmar conflict involving ASEAN, the European Union and the United Nations, as well as numerous anti-junta groups.
– Call for action –
ASEAN, long criticised as a toothless talking shop hamstrung from taking firm action by its principle of making decisions by consensus, has made little progress in its efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis.
The topic has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup, but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.
Myanmar’s neighbour Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict and has held its own bilateral talks with the junta, called for a more effective response from ASEAN.
“ASEAN must play a crucial role in restoring peace to Myanmar as soon as possible,” Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Monday.
“We will focus on working with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who will assume the ASEAN Chairmanship next year, and utilise diplomatic mechanisms to resolve this issue as swiftly as possible.”
Myanmar’s key ally China, which will join the ASEAN summit on Thursday, wants to see a deal to end the conflict on its doorstep, though it insists it will not interfere in “internal affairs”.
The South China Sea will be another key topic for leaders, after months of violent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the disputed waterway.
Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims of several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.
As well as ASEAN and China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada are all expected to attend the talks.
ByAFP
October 8, 2024
Myanmar's civil war will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos - Copyright AFP Nhac NGUYEN
Martin Abbugao and Damon Wake
Myanmar will send a representative to a regional summit this week for the first time in three years, a diplomatic source told AFP Tuesday, as the junta struggles to quell a civil war.
The conflict will be high on the agenda as leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos from Wednesday, though more than three years of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis have had no impact.
ASEAN barred Myanmar’s junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup, and the generals have refused to send “non-political representatives” instead.
But Myanmar — one of 10 ASEAN member states — has sent a senior foreign ministry official as its representative to the three-day meeting in Vientiane, a Southeast Asian diplomat involved in the meetings told AFP.
Weeks after seizing power, the junta agreed to a “five-point consensus” plan aimed at restoring peace, but ignored it and carried on a bloody crackdown on dissent and armed opposition to its rule.
“The significance is that in a sense they are accepting the five-point consensus,” the diplomat told AFP.
“They may have thought that it’s better to have their own voice heard rather than be on the outside.”
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing attended an emergency ASEAN summit on the crisis in April 2021, but the bloc has refused to invite him to regular gatherings since.
Aung Kyaw Moe, permanent secretary at the Myanmar foreign ministry, attended a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday ahead of the main summit, AFP journalists saw.
The move comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, which has killed thousands and forced millions to flee their homes.
The junta has been reeling from battlefield defeats to ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy “People’s Defence Forces” that rose up to oppose its coup.
Last weekend, Indonesia hosted talks on the Myanmar conflict involving ASEAN, the European Union and the United Nations, as well as numerous anti-junta groups.
– Call for action –
ASEAN, long criticised as a toothless talking shop hamstrung from taking firm action by its principle of making decisions by consensus, has made little progress in its efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis.
The topic has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup, but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.
Myanmar’s neighbour Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict and has held its own bilateral talks with the junta, called for a more effective response from ASEAN.
“ASEAN must play a crucial role in restoring peace to Myanmar as soon as possible,” Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Monday.
“We will focus on working with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who will assume the ASEAN Chairmanship next year, and utilise diplomatic mechanisms to resolve this issue as swiftly as possible.”
Myanmar’s key ally China, which will join the ASEAN summit on Thursday, wants to see a deal to end the conflict on its doorstep, though it insists it will not interfere in “internal affairs”.
The South China Sea will be another key topic for leaders, after months of violent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the disputed waterway.
Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims of several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.
As well as ASEAN and China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada are all expected to attend the talks.
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