Thursday, December 12, 2024

 SCI-FI-TEK

Improved predictive accuracy of fusion plasma performance by data science



Multi-fidelity modeling linking theory, simulation, and experiment



National Institutes of Natural Sciences

Multi-fidelity information fusion. 

image: 

Theoretical and simulation estimates of turbulent transport (high-dimensional data that depend on plasma conditions such as density, temperature, and magnetic field) are used as low-fidelity data, and experimentally observed plasma confinement performance data are used as high-fidelity data. By incorporating correlations between low and high-fidelity data, multi-fidelity modeling compensates for the lack of high-fidelity data and enhances predictive accuracy of the plasma confinement performance.

view more 

Credit: National Institute for Fusion Science




Fusion energy research is being pursued around the world as a means of solving energy problems. Magnetic confinement fusion reactors aim to extract fusion energy by confining extremely hot plasma in strong magnetic fields. Its development is a comprehensive engineering project involving many advanced technologies, such as superconducting magnets, reduced-activation materials, and beam and wave heating devices. In addition, predicting and controlling the confined plasma, in which numerous charged particles and electromagnetic fields interact in complex ways, is an interesting research subject from a physics perspective.

 

To understand the transport of energy and particles in confined plasmas, theoretical studies, numerical simulations using supercomputers, and experimental measurements of plasma turbulence are being conducted. Although physics-based numerical simulations can predict turbulent transport in plasmas and agree with experimental observation to some extent, there are sometimes deviations from experiments. Therefore, the quantitative reliability of the predictions remains an issue. On the other hand, empirical prediction models based on experimental data have been developed. Still, it is uncertain whether they can be applied to future experimental devices based only on data obtained from existing experimental devices. Thus, theory/simulation and experimental data each have advantages and disadvantages, and there are areas where one alone cannot fully compensate for the other. If there is plenty of data with enough accuracy, it is possible to create turbulent transport models through machine learning, such as neural networks. However, to predict future nuclear fusion burning plasmas that have not yet been realized, the data is often lacking; either less quantitatively or in an insufficient amount to cover the parameter range of interest.

 

To solve this problem, we have adopted the concept of multi-fidelity modeling that enhances the predictive accuracy of the limited number of highly accurate (high-fidelity) data.  To compensate for the lack of high-fidelity data, one uses less accurate but more numerous low-fidelity data. This study introduces a multi-fidelity data fusion method called nonlinear auto-regressive Gaussian process regression (NARGP) to turbulent transport modeling in plasmas. In a conventional regression problem, a single pair of input and output data is given as a set, and a regression model is built based on the pair. However, a multi-fidelity problem has multiple outputs with different fidelities for the same input. The idea of NARGP is to express the prediction of high-fidelity data as a function of input and low-fidelity data. It is demonstrated that the multi-fidelity data fusion method improves the prediction accuracy of plasma turbulent transport models by applying the technique to cases such as (i) integration of low- and high-resolution simulation data, (ii) prediction of a turbulent diffusion coefficient based on an experimental fusion plasma data set, and (iii) integration of simplified theoretical models and turbulence simulation data. By incorporating the physical model-based predictability of theory and simulation as low-fidelity data, the lack of quantitative experimental data that we want to predict as the high-fidelity type can be compensated for improving prediction accuracy. These results have been published in a journal of the Nature publishing group, Scientific Reports.

 

Until now, turbulent transport modeling research has been dominated by two approaches: one pursuing predictions based on physical models from theory and simulation and the other constructing empirical models to fit existing experimental data. The present research paves the way to a new method that combines the best of both approaches: the predictability of theory and simulation based on physical models, and the quantitative information obtained from experimental data. By doing so, we are attempting to realize a prediction method for future nuclear fusion burning plasmas that combines the knowledge of simulations with the accuracy of experimental data.

 

The multi-fidelity modeling approach can be applied to various multi-fidelity data, including simulation and experimental data, simplified theory and simulation, and low- and high-accuracy simulations. Therefore, it is expected to be applied not only to fusion plasma research but also to other fields as a general method to construct fast and accurate prediction models by using a small number of high-precision data. It will contribute to performance prediction and design optimization of fusion reactors and develop new technologies in other fields.

 AU CONTRAIRE

Spanish physicists disagree with the British Sleep Society and defend the time change in the United Kingdom




University of Seville




The seasonal time change synchronises the start of human activity with morning light (dawn), allowing more daytime leisure in summer afternoons.  This is the focus of the article that Jorge Mira Pérez and José María Martín Olalla, professors at the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC) and the University of Seville (US), have just published in the Journal of Sleep Research. In the article, they analyse the naturalness and usefulness of the seasonal time change in response to a position statement issued by the British Sleep Society (BSS) that calls for the end of the time change in the United Kingdom and the permanent adoption of winter time.

The researchers review the history of seasonal time change in the UK, highlighting its almost uninterrupted application since 1916, making it an optimal case for describing the application of time change and its effects. They point out that for more than a century the time change has provided a natural experiment in adapting the working day to the seasons, allowing an extra hour of daytime leisure in the summer evenings.

 

"If the population had perceived a chronic misalignment during daylight saving time, they would have counteracted it by changing their habits".

Based on time-use surveys, the authors point out that the collective acceptance of the time change is demonstrated by the fact that, in 100 years, British society has neither eliminated nor counteracted the change by seasonally adjusting its timetables. Referring to a typical working day in the UK, the study recalls that "since 1916 the British have preferred a seasonal adjustment with 9 to 5 in winter and 8 to 4 in summer, which thanks to the time change remains 9 to 5; with the advantage of a constant social reference throughout the year (9 to 5) and, at the same time, a seasonal adaptation". The authors add that the predictions of the original proponents of the practice seem to have been fulfilled: people appreciate starting their working day closer to dawn and thus being able to enjoy more daytime leisure time during the summer evenings. "If the British population had perceived a chronic misalignment during the summer time months, they would have counteracted it by changing their habits".

Martín-Olalla and Mira point out that the BSS subscribes to the rationale for the time change in its position statement manifesto: morning light plays a crucial role in our daily activation. The BSS emphasises this role in winter to rule out permanent daylight saving time because of the morning darkness it would cause in winter. The nuance that the BSS and other similar societies forget is that the sun rises earlier in summer, which encourages an earlier start to human activity: in the UK, in the summer, the sun rises at least four hours earlier than in winter.  Martin-Olalla and Mira point out that the function of the seasonal time change is to adapt work activity to the morning light of each season.

The authors conclude by pointing out that in the current discussion on the seasonal time change the polls show a majority in favour of summer time over winter time. "This is another indication that the 1916 seasonal proposal continues to be accepted, now by today's generations. It's like an outcry: we love our current summer time schedules, please don't move them back."  

 

 

Technique to forecast where the next big quake will start

New Zealand fault study yields global insights 

Peer-Reviewed Publication

University of California - Riverside

Measuring scratches on the fault 

image: 

Geologist Tim Little measuring curved scratches on the Alpine Fault.

view more 

Credit: Nic Barth/UCR

Scientists have a new method for studying faults that could improve earthquake forecasts, shedding light on where quakes start, how they spread, and where the biggest impacts might be.

paper in the journal Geology describes the method, which helps determine the origins and directions of past earthquake ruptures — information valuable to modeling future earthquake scenarios on major faults.

By studying subtle curved scratches left on the fault plane after an earthquake, similar to the tire marks left after a drag race, scientists can determine the direction that earthquakes came from to that location. 

“Fault planes accumulate these curved scratch marks, which until now we didn’t know to look for or how to interpret,” explained UC Riverside geologist and paper first author Nic Barth. 

Curved scratches have been observed on fault surfaces following several historic ruptures including the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in California. Computer modeling was used to confirm that the shape of the curvature indicates the direction the earthquake came from. 

This study is the first to demonstrate that this method can be applied to fingerprint the locations of prehistoric earthquakes. It can be applied to faults worldwide, helping to forecast the effects of possible future earthquakes and improve hazard assessments globally.

“The scratches indicate the direction and origin of a past earthquake, potentially giving us clues about where a future quake might start and where it will go. This is key for California, where anticipating the direction of a quake on faults like San Andreas or San Jacinto could mean a more accurate forecast of its impact,” Barth said.

Where an earthquake starts and where it goes can have a big influence on the intensity of shaking and the amount of time before people feel it. For example, scientists have shown that a large earthquake originating on the San Andreas fault near the Salton Sea that propagates to the north will direct more damaging energy into the Los Angeles region than a closer San Andreas earthquake that travels away from LA.

More optimistically, such an earthquake that starts further away could allow cellular alert systems to give Angelenos a warning of about a minute before the shaking arrives, which could save lives.

New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is known for its regular timing of large earthquakes, which makes it a more straightforward choice for studying fault behavior. The fault is known to rupture at almost metronomic intervals of about 250 years.  

This study provides two valuable insights for the Alpine Fault. First, that the most recent quake in 1717 traveled from south to north, a scenario that has been modeled to produce much greater shaking to populated areas. Second, it establishes that large earthquakes can start on both ends of the fault, which was not previously known.

“We can now take the techniques and expertise we have developed on the Alpine Fault to examine faults in the rest of the world. Because there is a high probability of a large earthquake occurring in Southern California in the near-term, looking for these curved marks on the San Andreas fault is an obvious goal,” Barth said.

Ultimately, Barth and his team hope that earthquake scientists around the world will start applying this new technique to unravel the past history of their faults. Barth is particularly enthusiastic about applying this technique across California’s fault network, including the notorious San Andreas Fault, to improve predictions and preparedness for one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the United States. 

“There is no doubt that this new knowledge will enhance our understanding and modeling of earthquake behavior in California and globally,” he said.


Examples of curved scratches documented in this study. 

Credit

Nic Barth/UCR


Lead author Nic Barth at the Alpine Fault. The Australian Plate is to the left, the Pacific Plate is to the right. 

Credit

Jesse Kearse/Kyoto University


 

Researchers reveal key factors behind Japan’s plastic waste removal rates in rivers



Their findings will help shape cleanup efforts and minimize the amount of plastic litter that makes it to the sea




Tokyo University of Science

A look into plastic litter removal from rivers in Japan 

image: 

Plastic litter recovery from rivers is a rather understudied topic in Japan. To tackle this knowledge gap, researchers conducted an in-depth analysis of plastic removal from over 100 important river basins. Their findings reveal important correlations between plastic litter recovery and demographic and natural factors, which could help improve organized cleanup efforts.

view more 

Credit: Mamoru Tanaka from Tokyo University of Science, Japan




Plastic pollution is an ever-growing problem in today’s world, as most societies have become overly dependent on plastics for packaging, medical supplies, and general goods. Plastic litter accumulation in the ocean, either through deliberate dumping or by being transported from a river, poses significant environmental challenges. Additionally, this plastic eventually degrades into small fragments called microplastics, which then impact diverse marine and land ecosystems by working their way up the food chain and into most living organisms. Though their negative effects on cell health are still under study, many nations have taken a cautionary stance, increasing efforts to curb plastic usage and prevent pollution.

Because of its position in the North Pacific, Japan is a country that both greatly contributes to and is harshly impacted by plastic litter in the ocean and, therefore, needs proactive cleanup campaigns by the government and local communities to recover plastic litter from river basins. Unfortunately, very few studies have focused on the rate of plastic litter removal from Japanese river basins, which is essential for understanding plastic transport dynamics and taking more effective measures.

Against this backdrop, a research team led by Assistant Professor Mamoru Tanaka of Tokyo University of Science (TUS) decided to conduct the first nationwide-level analysis of plastic litter removal from rivers in Japan. As explained in their latest paper, which was published online in the Marine Pollution Bulletin on November 1st, 2024, the team quantified the annual recovery of plastic waste from river banks and water surfaces using a dataset provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Ms. Yumena Okada, who graduated from TUS in 2022, also participated in the study.

The dataset included the amount of plastic recovered from 109 river basins from 2016 to 2020. The researchers analyzed this information and also investigated potential correlations with other factors, such as basin population, the extent of nearby urban areas, and topographical characteristics. The total plastic recovery ranged from 763 to 1,177 tons/year, with an average of 938 tons/year. “Given the emission estimates from previous studies, Japan’s annual plastic emissions are approximately 10,000–20,000 tons. The plastic recovery in river basins of approximately 1,000 tons/year estimated in this study represents approximately one-tenth to one-twentieth of this total. This is a non-negligible contribution toward reducing nationwide plastic emission, though not a decisive amount,” highlights Tanaka.

According to the team’s analysis, the top seven river systems by average plastic waste collection volume were the Yodo River system with 91.6 tons/year, the Yoshino River system with 85.8 tons/year, the Tone River system with 78.8 tons/year, the Tama River system with 72.0 tons/year, the Oto River system with 69.2 tons/year, and the Abukuma River system with 53.9 tons/year. These accounted for roughly 50% of Japan’s total plastic collection volume.

By looking more closely at the data, the researchers noted that natural disasters and extreme weather events were closely related to spikes in the values of plastic litter collected from rivers. “The Ota and Kiso River systems saw a significant rise in plastic waste collected in 2018. Both systems were affected by heavy rains in western Japan that year,” noted Tanaka, “Similarly, the Abukuma River system saw a rise in plastic collection in 2019, which can be attributed to the impact of Typhoon No. 19 in 2019, which caused substantial water damage.” These results shed some light on potential links between climate change, which leads to more extreme weather events, and plastic pollution.

The team also identified other interesting correlations. For example, the Yodo and Tone River systems, which saw some of the highest recovery rates, also serve over 10 million people, but this also increases the amount of waste generated and leads to higher involvement from multiple municipalities. Therefore, there is a positive correlation between the basin population, plastic litter recovery, and the number of people participating in cleanup activities.

Taken together, the results of this nationwide analysis will be useful for authorities and volunteer-based organizations to plan future cleanup activities. “Currently, the Ministry of the Environment scientifically estimates plastic litter levels across various areas of Japan. Our estimates cover where and to what extent plastic waste is generated, how much is collected, how much is deposited in soil and riverbeds, and the amount discharged into the ocean, thereby providing key data to support these estimates,” remarks Tanaka. With any luck, this study will pave the way to better measures to achieve sustainable plastic management, reducing the devastating effects of plastic pollution on wildlife and public health.

 

 .***

Reference                    

Title of original paper: Country-wide assessment of plastic removal rates on riverbanks and water surfaces

Journal: Marine Pollution Bulletin

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117218

 

About The Tokyo University of Science

Tokyo University of Science (TUS) is a well-known and respected university, and the largest science-specialized private research university in Japan, with four campuses in central Tokyo and its suburbs and in Hokkaido. Established in 1881, the university has continually contributed to Japan's development in science through inculcating the love for science in researchers, technicians, and educators.

With a mission of “Creating science and technology for the harmonious development of nature, human beings, and society," TUS has undertaken a wide range of research from basic to applied science. TUS has embraced a multidisciplinary approach to research and undertaken intensive study in some of today's most vital fields. TUS is a meritocracy where the best in science is recognized and nurtured. It is the only private university in Japan that has produced a Nobel Prize winner and the only private university in Asia to produce Nobel Prize winners within the natural sciences field.

Website: https://www.tus.ac.jp/en/mediarelations/

 

About Assistant Professor Mamoru Tanaka from Tokyo University of Science

Mamoru Tanaka obtained a PhD in Applied Marine Environmental Studies from the Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology in 2019. He currently serves as an Associate Professor at the Tokyo University of Science, focusing on observational physical oceanography, microplastics, hydraulic engineering, and turbulence. He has 15 refereed papers published under his name.

 

Funding information

This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund [JPMEERF21S11900] from the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Partial funding was provided by The River Foundation, Japan [2022-5211-028] and [2024-5211-060].

 

Giraffes really struggle with slopes

Reports and Proceedings

British Ecological Society

Giraffes really struggle with slopes 

image: 

A giraffe with a GPS tracker.

view more 

Credit: Professor Francois Deacon

New research finds that giraffes much prefer flat terrain and do not traverse slopes of more than 20°, which severely limits the areas in, and outside, protected reserves they can access. The findings, which is are yet to be published, will be presented at the British Ecological Society’s (BES) Annual meeting in Liverpool on the 13th December.

A new study analysing the movements of 33 GPS collared giraffes in South Africa has found that they avoid steep terrain and are unable to navigate slopes with a gradient of more than 20° , most likely due to the energy required and the risk of falling.

The researchers from the University of Manchester and the University of the Free State, South Africa found that giraffes will tolerate terrain of up to 12°, but only if it leads to favourable vegetation.

Jessica Granweiler, a PHD candidate at the University of Manchester, who will present this research at the BES Annual Meeting said “We often think of giraffes roaming in large, flat grassland savannas in Africa, but that's not really their true habitat, there are also rolling hills, deep riverbeds and high plateaus.

“Our study shows that giraffes much prefer flat areas. They will tolerate some steepness to access food, but simply cannot access areas above a 20° gradient. It's quite shocking when you look at distribution maps.”

“Giraffes are tolerant animals and resilient to many things like food availability and human pressures, but this is a scenario where they simply may not be able to adapt due to physiological limits.”

The findings highlight a mismatch between the ideal, flat habitats of giraffes and the areas they’re being conserved in. Using the newly discovered 20° gradient threshold, the researchers were able to calculate the proportion of habitats in key African countries where giraffes are currently found that are inaccessible to the animals.

“In Namibia and Tanzania, there is approximately 8,000km2 that may be unusable to giraffes, that’s nearly half of the size of Wales.” said Jessica. “In Kenya and South Africa, there’s approximately 4,000kmthat may be unusable. What’s even more worrying is that of all the countries we mapped, one in three had more unusable areas in protected areas than outside of protected areas.”

This issue is exacerbated when reserves are fenced, which many in South Africa are. “If a reserve is say 200 hectares but has a large mountain in the middle, from a giraffe’s perspective, this reserve is not 200 hectares anymore.” said Jessica. “We need to start including topography in giraffe conservation planning and habitat assessments, especially for small fenced reserves.”

Professor Susanne Shultz, lead supervisor on Jessica’s PHD, further commented: “Steep and rugged environments are challenging for large-bodied animals, like giraffes. Unfortunately, natural and protected areas are more likely to be placed in such places, which can lead to a mismatch between the landscapes animals ‘want’ to use and the landscapes that we have ‘left’ for them. Incorporating geography and physical limitations in habitat assessments can help avoid conserving animals in inappropriate places.”

Giraffes are currently found in 21 African countries but despite their wide distribution, populations have been declining due to habitat loss, poaching, and human-wildlife conflict. Conservation initiatives are critical for their survival. However, traditional habitat suitability models primarily focus on vegetation distribution, predation, and human disturbance and overlook topography.

In the study, the researchers repurposed GPS data collected between 2011 to 2023 by Dr Francois Deacon’s team at the University of the Free State, South Africa who fitted GPS collars to 33 giraffes (10 males and 23 females) across five reserves in South Africa. The researchers combined this data with topographic maps to work out the gradients that giraffes could and couldn’t navigate.

Dr Francois Deacon, who was also part of this research said "The more awareness we can bring to giraffe ecology, the more research effort there will be on this species in the future. The fact that we are still discovering major limitations or drivers of their ecology and behaviour is worrying. But research like ours helps closing this gap in knowledge and will help better management and conservation of giraffes in the future."

  

A giraffe with a GPS tracker.

Credit

Professor Francois Deacon

-ENDS-

 

Durham University scientists unlock secrets of the longest runout sediment flows on earth using seabed seismographs



Peer-Reviewed Publication

Durham Universi

-


With images-

 

Durham University scientists have made a groundbreaking discovery in marine geoscience, revealing unprecedented insights into the dynamics of Earth’s longest runout sediment flows.

 

By using seabed seismographs placed safely outside the destructive paths of powerful underwater avalanches of sediment, researchers have successfully monitored turbidity currents—a natural phenomenon that shapes deep-sea landscapes, damages telecommunication cables, and transports large quantities of sediment and organic carbon to the ocean floor.

 

The study recorded two massive turbidity currents that travelled over 1,000 kilometres through the Congo Canyon-Channel, moving at speeds of up to 7.6 metres per second.

 

These flows lasted over three weeks and marked the longest runout sediment flows ever directly observed on Earth.

 

This achievement provides critical new data on the duration, internal structure, and behaviour of turbidity currents, advancing our understanding of this powerful geophysical process.

 

This breakthrough opens up new possibilities for studying one of the most significant yet poorly understood processes shaping our planet.

 

By using ocean-bottom seismographs, researchers can now safely and effectively measure these extraordinary events in more detail than ever before.

 

Lead author of the study Dr Megan Baker of Durham University, said: “This multidisciplinary work brought together geologists, seismologists, and engineers to advance our understanding of powerful turbidity currents through first-of-their-kind observations using ocean-bottom seismographs.

 

“This approach enables the safe monitoring of these hazardous events and will help us learn where and how often turbidity currents occur globally.”

 

The research team, which included researchers from Newcastle University, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, National Oceanography Centre, Georg-August-University, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam, IFREMER, Université Paris-Saclay, TU Wien, University of Hull, University of Southampton and Loughborough University, successfully used ocean-bottom seismographs – instruments that are placed on the seafloor to record seismic signals generated by the turbidity currents.

 

This innovative approach allowed the researchers to capture detailed information on these flows without risking damage to expensive equipment, as has been the case with previous attempts.

 

The use of these seismographs marks a major step forward in monitoring hazardous seabed events, offering a cost-effective and long-term method for studying turbidity currents and their impacts.

 

The findings also reveal the global significance of these underwater flows. The turbidity currents studied in this research not only shape deep-sea landscapes but also play a crucial role in the transport of organic carbon and sediment to the ocean floor, with significant implications for deep-sea ecosystems and global carbon cycles.

 

The study shows that despite substantial erosion of the seafloor, the front of these massive flows maintains a near-constant speed and duration, efficiently moving organic material and sediment vast distances to the deep-sea.

 

The study also challenges traditional models of turbidity current behaviour, suggesting that the flows can maintain a consistent speed and duration even as they erode the seabed.

 

This finding calls for a revaluation of existing models that have been based primarily on shorter, shallower flows.

 

ENDS

 

Media Information

 

Dr Megan Baker from Durham University is available for interview and can be contacted on megan.l.baker@durham.ac.uk.

 

Alternatively, please contact Durham University Communications Office for interview requests on communications.team@durham.ac.uk or +44 (0)191 334 8623.

 

Source

 

‘Seabed Seismographs Reveal Duration and Structure of Longest Runout Sediment Flows on Earth’, (2024), Megan Baker et. al, Geophysical Research Letters.

 

An embargoed copy of the paper is available from Durham University Communications Office. Please email communications.team@durham.ac.uk.

 

Graphics

 

Associated images are available via the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/mms2erz5bh8pxhbms2240/AEOC2biUjpNOodxBKQBOUWU?rlkey=rh18zv6zn1e6slrshkpdsnrfl&st=1ywo6rm5&dl=0

 

About Durham University

 

Durham University is a globally outstanding centre of teaching and research based in historic Durham City in the UK.

 

We are a collegiate university committed to inspiring our people to do outstanding things at Durham and in the world.

 

We conduct research that improves lives globally and we are ranked as a world top 100 university with an international reputation in research and education (QS World University Rankings 2025).

 

We are a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and we are consistently ranked as a top 10 university in national league tables (Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, Guardian University Guide and The Complete University Guide).

 

For more information about Durham University visit: www.durham.ac.uk/about/

 

END OF MEDIA RELEASE – issued by Durham University Communications Office.