Matthew Chapman
August 18, 2022
Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin
On Thursday's edition of CNN's "OutFront," election forecaster Harry Enten laid out why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to tamp down expectations for Republican performances in Senate contests this cycle — and why he particularly knocked his party's "candidate quality."
"Just go to Pennsylvania, for example," said Enten. "Mehmet Oz, 20 points underwater on his favorability. In Georgia, Herschel Walker, minus 5 points. Arizona, Blake Masters, 4 points underwater. And you see that in all those races that we mentioned where the Democrats are ahead, the net favorability of the different Republicans is underwater. Their unfavorable ratings are higher than favorable ratings. This is a long-standing problem with Republicans. We saw it in 2010 as well. They blew it then because they nominated bad candidates in the minds of the voters."
"You've got [Wisconsin's Ron] Johnson, an incumbent, but Oz, that was completely discretionary. That was their choice. Walker, completely discretionary, that's their choice," noted anchor Erin Burnett. Enten concurred, pointing out that Trump himself picked most of these candidates through his endorsements.
Another point to note, said Enten, is that while President Joe Biden's approval rating remains low, that has historically had little impact on the result of Senate elections in midterms.
"If you go back over time and say let's look at the Senate races or the Senate years in which the incumbent, the White House party did not in fact lose any seats or in fact gain seats and look at the president's approval rating in those years, we don't actually see that much of a relationship," said Enten. "You look at 1982, for example, Ronald Reagan was not anywhere close to 50 percent. In fact, Republicans held their grounding. You look just four years ago, Donald Trump was well underwater. What happened? Republicans actually gained two senate seats."
"There are years where the president's approval rating is high and the White House party holds or gains seats, but the relationship is not as straight as you might expect it to be," Enten continued. "At this point, even though Biden's approval rating is low, it's not shocking to me that Democrats are not only holding their grounding but if the election is held today, they might gain some seats."
Democrats think they can defy history and hold the House in 2022 — here's why
Bob Brigham
August 18, 2022
Kevin McCarthy on Twitter.
The conventional wisdom that the Republican Party is likely to win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm election was challenged by Susan Glasser in The New Yorker.
"The results of this midterm season so far have shown how nearly complete Trump’s Republican triumph already is. Dozens of election deniers who have adopted the former President’s lies about his 2020 election loss have won Republican nominations, up and down the ballot," Glasser wrote. "So why are Trump’s opponents—at least some of them—feeling in any way optimistic?"
Glasser noted historical precedent, President Joe Biden's low polling, and record inflation.
"But, over the summer, a new school of what might be called 'Trumptimism' has taken hold among some Democratic strategists and independent analysts," Glasser reported. "In the mess of our current politics, they discern a case for optimism—history-defying, experience-flouting optimism that maybe things won’t work out so badly after all in November."
Glasser noted hopes of a blue wave from Simon Rosenberg of New Democrat Network.
"The Trump factor, according to Rosenberg, is key. For the past several election cycles, nothing has united Democratic voters more than the chance to vote against him. And all summer Trump has been back in the news, thanks to revelations from testimony in the House’s January 6th hearings; the F.B.I. search of Mar-a-Lago, for classified documents improperly taken from the White House; and endless speculation about whether Trump will be indicted or run again for President—or both," Glasser wrote. "Rosenberg sees this fall as a genuinely competitive election, not a foregone conclusion."
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report disagreed.
“All the fundamentals are telling us not that much has changed,” Walter said. “There is not a blue wave, no. The question is: How big is the red wave?”
However, also on Thursday, the Cook Political Report shifted their forecasts towards Democrats in two senate races.
In Pennsylvania, the forecast was shifted from a tossup to leaning towards Lt. Gov. John Fetterman beating Dr. Mehment Oz. And it Utah, where GOP Sen. Mike Lee is facing independent Evan McMullin after Dems refused to nominate a candidate, the forecast was shifted from solid for Lee to leaning towards him.
"GOP fears a repeat of 2010/12 when weak candidates cost them winnable races," Cook Political's Jessica Taylor reported.
Veteran Democratic strategic Joe Trippi predicted, "it’s gonna be a lot worse than 2010."
"2010 crazy just infected Senate races. 2022 it’s even crazier in the House," Trippi wrote. "2010 was just the Tea Party. We’re talking Ultra MAGA in 2022."
Bob Brigham
August 18, 2022
Kevin McCarthy on Twitter.
The conventional wisdom that the Republican Party is likely to win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm election was challenged by Susan Glasser in The New Yorker.
"The results of this midterm season so far have shown how nearly complete Trump’s Republican triumph already is. Dozens of election deniers who have adopted the former President’s lies about his 2020 election loss have won Republican nominations, up and down the ballot," Glasser wrote. "So why are Trump’s opponents—at least some of them—feeling in any way optimistic?"
Glasser noted historical precedent, President Joe Biden's low polling, and record inflation.
"But, over the summer, a new school of what might be called 'Trumptimism' has taken hold among some Democratic strategists and independent analysts," Glasser reported. "In the mess of our current politics, they discern a case for optimism—history-defying, experience-flouting optimism that maybe things won’t work out so badly after all in November."
Glasser noted hopes of a blue wave from Simon Rosenberg of New Democrat Network.
"The Trump factor, according to Rosenberg, is key. For the past several election cycles, nothing has united Democratic voters more than the chance to vote against him. And all summer Trump has been back in the news, thanks to revelations from testimony in the House’s January 6th hearings; the F.B.I. search of Mar-a-Lago, for classified documents improperly taken from the White House; and endless speculation about whether Trump will be indicted or run again for President—or both," Glasser wrote. "Rosenberg sees this fall as a genuinely competitive election, not a foregone conclusion."
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report disagreed.
“All the fundamentals are telling us not that much has changed,” Walter said. “There is not a blue wave, no. The question is: How big is the red wave?”
However, also on Thursday, the Cook Political Report shifted their forecasts towards Democrats in two senate races.
In Pennsylvania, the forecast was shifted from a tossup to leaning towards Lt. Gov. John Fetterman beating Dr. Mehment Oz. And it Utah, where GOP Sen. Mike Lee is facing independent Evan McMullin after Dems refused to nominate a candidate, the forecast was shifted from solid for Lee to leaning towards him.
"GOP fears a repeat of 2010/12 when weak candidates cost them winnable races," Cook Political's Jessica Taylor reported.
Veteran Democratic strategic Joe Trippi predicted, "it’s gonna be a lot worse than 2010."
"2010 crazy just infected Senate races. 2022 it’s even crazier in the House," Trippi wrote. "2010 was just the Tea Party. We’re talking Ultra MAGA in 2022."
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