By Kirby Phares and Lew Blank
Two years ago on January 6, hundreds of rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The attack was spurred by President Donald Trump, who falsely denied the legitimacy of the election and encouraged followers to challenge the results in court and state legislatures. Over the past year and a half, the U.S. House Select Committee investigating the attack interviewed thousands of people and held multiple hearings to present its findings on Trump’s involvement in the insurrection. The committee recently released its final report, which concluded that Trump was singularly responsible for the attack on the Capitol.
From December 22-29, 2022, Data for Progress conducted a poll of 1,189 likely voters to analyze the sentiment around the January 6 attack two years later. We find that majorities of voters believe that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election, disapprove of Trump supporters’ actions on January 6, and find Trump responsible for the insurrection. We also find that voters support criminal charges against Trump.
We first asked voters whether the 2020 presidential election was fairly won by Biden or stolen from Trump. A majority of voters (57 percent) believe that Biden legitimately won the election, including 92 percent of Democratic voters, 55 percent of Independents, and 26 percent of Republicans.
Furthermore, a majority of voters disapprove of supporters of Trump who stormed the U.S. Capitol in hopes of overturning the election. Specifically, a +77-point margin of Democrats, a +63-point margin of Independents, and a +34-point margin of Republicans believe that supporters were wrong to incite violence and threaten American democracy. Less than a third of Republican voters agree that January 6 rioters were justified in their actions by standing up for Trump.
The House Select Committee found that Trump was the “central cause” of January 6. With regard to this, we then asked how voters’ viewed Trump’s role in the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters agree that Trump had either “a lot of responsibility” or “some responsibility” for the insurrection. This result is driven by Democratic and Independent voters. However, 48 percent of Republicans believe that Trump had some degree of responsibility for the January 6 attack.
We also tested support for the U.S. House of Representatives’ investigation into the insurrection and the events leading up to it. We find that a clear majority of voters — 59 percent — support the House’s investigation, while just 35 percent are opposed.
As a result of this investigation, on December 19, 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 attack recommended four criminal charges against Trump for sparking the insurrection. The recommended charges include obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the U.S. by blocking the certification of Biden’s victory, conspiracy to make a false statement, and inciting the insurrection. We find that 50 percent of voters support charging Trump for these actions, while 44 percent think he should not be charged.
While majorities of voters oppose the insurrection and believe Trump is responsible, it’s a different question whether this would actually harm Trump in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup with Biden. In our survey, we conducted a polling experiment to test that.
We split voters into two groups. The first group was asked whether they would vote for Trump or Biden in the 2024 presidential election. The second group was asked the same question, but provided additional information: that Biden opposes the insurrection but Trump supports it.
We find that this framing makes a noticeable difference in vote choice. Without the messaging, Biden holds a +2-point advantage over Trump among likely voters, but he holds a +7-point edge when we include messaging. Broken down by partisanship, the added messaging provides a +5-point increase for Biden among Independent voters and a +8-point increase among Republican voters.
These findings clearly show that voters nationwide oppose the insurrection — and that the issue is hurting Trump and the Republican Party. Clear majorities think Biden fairly won the 2020 election, think Trump did the wrong thing on January 6, and believe Trump is responsible for the attack. Voters also support the House’s investigation into the attack and want Trump to be criminally charged. Furthermore, messaging around Trump’s support for the January 6 attack harms his prospects against Biden in a potential 2024 general election matchup, showing the clear negative impact of Republicans’ support of the insurrection on their electoral success.
Kirby Phares is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Survey Methodology
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