Ben Adler
·Senior Editor
Wed, July 5, 2023
A security guard in Beijing on July 3. (Andy Wong/AP)
The Earth’s average temperature reached an all-time high on Monday, and then again on Tuesday, in what is shaping up to be a year of record-breaking heat.
Monday’s global average temperature of 62.62 degrees Fahrenheit was exceeded Tuesday when it reached 62.92°F, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute.
Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical climate hazards at University College London, called the back-to-back records “totally unprecedented and terrifying.”
Scientists say that daily heat records are likely to continue falling in the weeks ahead, possibly as soon as Wednesday.
Climate change and El Niño
Rising global temperatures are a consequence of climate change that is being caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions and the weather pattern known as El Niño, a band of warm air from the tropical Pacific Ocean that recurs every two to seven years, scientists say.
“We may well see a few even warmer days over the next 6 weeks,” Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, an environmental research organization, tweeted on Tuesday morning. “Global warming is leading us into an unfamiliar world.”
“This will almost certainly be the warmest year on record, courtesy of [the] warming trend + large El Niño,” tweeted Michael Mann, director of the Center for Science Sustainability and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. “So we can expect [the] warmest month, warmest week, warmest day, and probably warmest hour.”
"This is not a milestone we should be celebrating," climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain's Imperial College London told Reuters. "It's a death sentence for people and ecosystems."
Global average temperatures have risen 2°F since the Industrial Revolution, resulting in more extreme and enduring heat waves, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It’s affecting many places, but not everywhere
Fifty-four million Americans were under heat advisories on Wednesday, primarily across the South, the Southwest and parts of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic.
Similar heat waves are occurring throughout the Northern Hemisphere. A heat wave in India killed at least 44 people, the United Kingdom had its hottest June since records began in 1884, and China has had the most days over 95°F in a six-month period in its recorded history, CNN reported.
Yasin Demirci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
All-time-high temperature records were set on Monday and Tuesday in Quebec and in Peru. Unusually high temperatures have exacerbated the wildfires in Canada that have sent smoke across the northern United States in recent weeks.
Beijing hit a record-setting nine consecutive days with highs above 95°F last week, including three straight days over 104°F, another record. Over 2,000 people suffered heat-related illness while making the hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia last week, due to temperatures as high as 118°F, Saudi officials said.
Nonetheless, the weather will always vary. In coastal California, recent weather has been “unusually cool and cloudy,” due to a series of low-pressure systems that have been stalling over the state, Miguel Miller, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, told the New York Times last month. The temperature records set Monday and Tuesday represent an average of all temperatures measured globally.
Warm winter in Antarctica
Though it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, that portion of the globe has been experiencing higher temperatures than are normal for this time of year. Antarctica’s Argentine Islands recently broke their July temperature record with a high of 47.6°F, and Antarctica's average forecast for Wednesday is 8.1°F warmer than the 1979-2000 average.
Oceans are heating up
Approximately 40% of the world’s oceans are currently experiencing heat waves, the most since satellite tracking started in 1991, according to NOAA. The agency projects that proportion to rise to 50% by September, which is "kind of scary," Dillon Amaya, a research scientist with NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory, told USA Today.
Usually, only around 10% of the oceans experience heat wave conditions at a given time. Marine heat waves can kill fish, bleach coral and fuel more powerful hurricanes. Since 1901, the oceans have warmed 1.5°F.
Scientists call for action
A child runs through a fountain in Lviv, Ukraine, on Tuesday.
(Mykola Tys/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Climate scientists say the extreme heat we are experiencing is just the beginning of what is to come if greenhouse gas emissions — primarily the result of burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas — are not eliminated.
“The increasing heating of our planet caused by fossil fuel use is not unexpected — it was predicted already in the 19th century, after all,” climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany told the Associated Press. “But it is dangerous for us humans and for the ecosystems we depend on. We need to stop it fast.”
Climate scientists say the extreme heat we are experiencing is just the beginning of what is to come if greenhouse gas emissions — primarily the result of burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas — are not eliminated.
“The increasing heating of our planet caused by fossil fuel use is not unexpected — it was predicted already in the 19th century, after all,” climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany told the Associated Press. “But it is dangerous for us humans and for the ecosystems we depend on. We need to stop it fast.”
El Niño is officially here and may cause temperature spikes and major weather events, scientists warn
Robert Lea
An infographic from the WMO showing a 90% probablity that El Niño conditions will last until the end of 2023.
El Niño is a "wake-up" call about climate change targets
According to the Met Office in the U.K., El Niño conditions are declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise half a degree above the long-term average. This occurs on average every 2 to 7 years in bouts that last between 9 and 12 months.
Despite the fact that El Niño is a natural phenomenon, it can't be viewed in isolation from human-driven (anthropogenic) climate change.
In a report published in May this year, the WMO was already predicting a 98% chance that one of the next five years, and this five-year period as a whole, would be a record-breaker in terms of global temperature, displacing 2016 and 2020 from the top spot as the warmest years on record.
The report also suggested there is a 66% possibility that the annual average near-surface global temperature will, at some point between 2023 and 2027, reach 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for at least a year.
"This is not to say that in the next five years, we would exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement because that agreement refers to long-term warming over many years," WMO Director of Climate Services Chris Hewitt said. "However, it is yet another wake-up call, or an early warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change."
An infographic showing the rainfall conditions associated with El Niño periods
El Niño and La Niña in 2023
El Niño events are usually linked to an increase in rainfall and even flooding in parts of the southern U.S., southern South America, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
On the flip side of this, the phenomenon is believed to lead to severe droughts across Central America, northern South America, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
The effects of El Niño are generally considered to be the opposite of those of another climate-driving event, La Niña, periods of cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. The last La Niña ended in March 2023.
A month prior to the end of La Niña, average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from nearly half a degree below average in February to around almost a full degree above average in mid-June. This, coupled with atmospheric observations, strongly hinted at the onset of El Niño conditions.
A fully established connection between ocean and atmosphere temperatures could take another month to fully couple in the tropical Pacific.
RELATED STORIES:
— Satellites observe record-breaking marine heatwave hit North Atlantic
— Watch lightning crackle over Europe and Africa in stunning video from powerful new weather satellite
— Earth's thermosphere reaches highest temperature in 20 years after being bombarded by solar storms
"As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over oceanic regions, they contribute to the widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas," the WMO recently said in its regular Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) for July, August and September. "Without exception, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere."
Rainfall conditions for these three months are forecast to be in line with what would be expected for an El Niño period. The WMO said that the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will now monitor El Niño conditions and their impacts on rainfall and temperature on national and local levels. In addition to this, the WMO said it will issue updates on El Niño over the coming months as needed.
Robert Lea
SPACE.COM
Wed, July 5, 2023
Satellite image of Earth showing areas of the Pacific ocean that are warmer and higher - a sign of El Nino
For the first time in 7 years, El Niño conditions have developed in the Tropical Pacific, prompting expert to urge that preparation for extreme weather events will be necessary to protect lives and safeguard livelihoods.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that is connected to ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions signal the possibility of a surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather. The WMO added that there is a 90% probability El Niño conditions will continue into the latter half of 2023 and until the end of the year.
"The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
Related: Climate change hits Antarctica hard, sparking concerns about irreversible tipping point
"The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems, and our economies," Taalas added. "Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods."
The last major El Niño event occurred in 2016, a year that remains the joint hottest 12 months on record, tied with 2020. 2016's status as a record hot year due to a "double whammy" of a powerful El Niño event and the effect of greenhouse gases on climate change.
According to the WMO, the 8-year period containing 2016 and 2023 has been the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880.
Wed, July 5, 2023
Satellite image of Earth showing areas of the Pacific ocean that are warmer and higher - a sign of El Nino
For the first time in 7 years, El Niño conditions have developed in the Tropical Pacific, prompting expert to urge that preparation for extreme weather events will be necessary to protect lives and safeguard livelihoods.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that is connected to ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions signal the possibility of a surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather. The WMO added that there is a 90% probability El Niño conditions will continue into the latter half of 2023 and until the end of the year.
"The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
Related: Climate change hits Antarctica hard, sparking concerns about irreversible tipping point
"The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems, and our economies," Taalas added. "Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods."
The last major El Niño event occurred in 2016, a year that remains the joint hottest 12 months on record, tied with 2020. 2016's status as a record hot year due to a "double whammy" of a powerful El Niño event and the effect of greenhouse gases on climate change.
According to the WMO, the 8-year period containing 2016 and 2023 has been the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880.
An infographic from the WMO showing a 90% probablity that El Niño conditions will last until the end of 2023.
El Niño is a "wake-up" call about climate change targets
According to the Met Office in the U.K., El Niño conditions are declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise half a degree above the long-term average. This occurs on average every 2 to 7 years in bouts that last between 9 and 12 months.
Despite the fact that El Niño is a natural phenomenon, it can't be viewed in isolation from human-driven (anthropogenic) climate change.
In a report published in May this year, the WMO was already predicting a 98% chance that one of the next five years, and this five-year period as a whole, would be a record-breaker in terms of global temperature, displacing 2016 and 2020 from the top spot as the warmest years on record.
The report also suggested there is a 66% possibility that the annual average near-surface global temperature will, at some point between 2023 and 2027, reach 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for at least a year.
"This is not to say that in the next five years, we would exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement because that agreement refers to long-term warming over many years," WMO Director of Climate Services Chris Hewitt said. "However, it is yet another wake-up call, or an early warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change."
An infographic showing the rainfall conditions associated with El Niño periods
El Niño and La Niña in 2023
El Niño events are usually linked to an increase in rainfall and even flooding in parts of the southern U.S., southern South America, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
On the flip side of this, the phenomenon is believed to lead to severe droughts across Central America, northern South America, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
The effects of El Niño are generally considered to be the opposite of those of another climate-driving event, La Niña, periods of cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. The last La Niña ended in March 2023.
A month prior to the end of La Niña, average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from nearly half a degree below average in February to around almost a full degree above average in mid-June. This, coupled with atmospheric observations, strongly hinted at the onset of El Niño conditions.
A fully established connection between ocean and atmosphere temperatures could take another month to fully couple in the tropical Pacific.
RELATED STORIES:
— Satellites observe record-breaking marine heatwave hit North Atlantic
— Watch lightning crackle over Europe and Africa in stunning video from powerful new weather satellite
— Earth's thermosphere reaches highest temperature in 20 years after being bombarded by solar storms
"As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over oceanic regions, they contribute to the widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas," the WMO recently said in its regular Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) for July, August and September. "Without exception, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere."
Rainfall conditions for these three months are forecast to be in line with what would be expected for an El Niño period. The WMO said that the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will now monitor El Niño conditions and their impacts on rainfall and temperature on national and local levels. In addition to this, the WMO said it will issue updates on El Niño over the coming months as needed.
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