Reuters
Sun, October 27, 2024 at 11:41 PM MDT
Bulgaria snap parliamentary election
SOFIA (Reuters) -Bulgaria's centre-right GERB party won a parliamentary election on Sunday, preliminary results showed, but it will have to seek a coalition partner to form a government.
According to preliminary results from the state election commission based on a partial vote count, GERB won 26.08% of the votes.
The reformist We Continue the Change (PP) party came second with 14.76%, the commission website showed on Monday morning after counting more than 82% of the votes, while the ultra-nationalist Revival party came third with 13.8%.
Sunday's election, the seventh in four years, was triggered by the failure of Bulgaria's political parties to agree on forming a coalition government after an inconclusive election on June 9.
GERB leader Boyko Borissov on Monday morning thanked voters for their support and said his party would form a new government.
"We will work together with everyone except Revival," he said.
Bulgaria has been run by short-lived governments since 2020, when anti-graft protests helped to end a coalition led by the GERB party.
Bulgaria needs a period of stable, well-functioning government to accelerate the flow of European Union funds into its creaking infrastructure and nudge it towards adoption of the euro.
Plans to join the eurozone have already been pushed back twice because of missed inflation targets. Accession is currently slated for Jan. 25, 2025.
Many voters said they feared further uncertainty ahead.
"Even if they manage to form a government, I don’t give it a high chance of a successful and healthy lifespan in terms of the next four years," Stoyan Danin, 37, in Sofia told Reuters.
(Reporting by Georgi Slavov; Editing by Ivana Sekularac and Tom Hogue)
Bulgaria’s Borissov Vows to Form Cabinet as Deadlock Remains
Slav Okov
Mon, October 28, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria’s former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov vowed to form a government after winning Sunday’s election, even as his party fell short of the majority needed to bring an end to almost four years of political paralysis.
Borissov’s Gerb won 26.2% in Sunday’s snap vote, according to official results based on 88% of the ballots counted. But with nine blocs set to enter parliament, he will struggle to cobble together a stable coalition after seventh election since 2021.
The stalemate has already delayed Bulgaria’s plans to adopt the euro to late next year or early 2026 and held up billions of euros in European Union aid to its poorest member state.
Borissov’s main challenger, an alliance running on an anti-corruption platform led by ex-Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, came second on Sunday with 15.1% of vote. The nationalist Revival party, which has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points and wants Bulgaria out of NATO, took 13.7%.
Short-lived administrations, both elected and caretaker, have run Bulgaria since anti-graft protests put an end in early 2021 to Borissov’s political dominance that lasted a decade. The Balkan country has repeatedly faced scrutiny from Brussels over corruption in politics and the judiciary.
“We are committed to forming a government,” Borissov told reporters in Sofia on Sunday. His chances of success are “100%, as of today,” he added.
That’s easier said than done. Most parties have repeatedly refused to collaborate with Borissov, leaving him limited options to return to office despite a series of election wins. The former prime minister has faced accusations of mafia ties, which he denies.
“Two parties are not enough” for a ruling majority, Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at the Alpha Research pollster, told the BNT public TV channel. “They’ll have to look for a third one. The question is which one,” she said.
Borissov vowed on Sunday to work with everyone except Revival due to ideological differences. However, frustration with mainstream parties has boosted Revival’s success — its number of voters has grown fourfold since 2021.
Borissov will be the first to receive a mandate to form a government from President Rumen Radev. If Gerb fails to secure support, the mandate will be offered to the second-biggest party.
Were this to prove unsuccessful as well, Radev — a NATO-trained general known for his Russia-friendly stances — will have to invite another party to form a government before he is obliged to schedule a new election. Analysts don’t rule out another vote next spring.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Conservatives lead in Bulgaria's legislative election exit polls
Euronews
Sat, October 26, 2024
Preliminary exit polls from Bulgaria's early parliamentary election suggest another win for former prime minister Boyko Borisov's conservative GERB party.
According to the Gallup International Balkan exit poll, the pro-Europe GERB party holds 25.1% of the vote, followed by We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) with 15.4% and the nationalist Vazrazhdane party at 13.8%.
The BSP - United Left trails with 8.1%, and DPS - New Beginning at 7.7%.
Voter turnout is estimated at 33.5%, Gallup reported.
A separate exit poll by Alfa Research places GERB with a wider lead at 26.4%, followed by PP-DB at 14.9% and Vazrazhdane at 12.9%, with an estimated turnout of 38%.
The final results will determine if GERB gains enough support to end Bulgaria’s political deadlock.
The vote on Sunday is the seventh general election in just over three years, as Bulgaria faces growing political instability that could encourage the rise of pro-Russian and far-right sentiment.
Only two of the six general elections since 2021 have produced an elected government. However, they both collapsed after trying to introduce reforms and cut remnants of the country’s reliance on Russia.
The latest vote held in June produced no clear winner and the seven factions elected in the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition.
Observers suggest the coming vote will produce more of the same, with chances of an immediate end to the political stalemate low.
Pollsters predicted voter fatigue and disillusionment in the political system would result in a low turnout and fragmented parliament where populist and pro-Russian groups could increase their representation.
At the same time, a high number of controlled votes was expected - not only bought votes but also those due to pressure from local authorities, including corporate ones, according to prominent analyst Stoyana Georgieva.
She predicted a possibility that the main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, would emerge as a second political force.
The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party insists Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in NATO.
The Balkan country of 6.7 million has been gripped by political instability since 2020 when nationwide protests erupted against corrupt politicians that had allowed oligarchs to take control of state institutions.
Bulgaria is one of the poorest and most corrupt European Union Member States and attempts to fight graft are an uphill battle against an unreformed judiciary widely accused of serving the interests of politicians.
Bulgaria Votes Again After Four Years of Deadlock: What to Watch
Slav Okov
Sat, October 26, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria will vote in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday that is expected to deepen a political stalemate in one of the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt nations.
This will be the country’s seventh vote in less than four years and its second this year.
Pollsters expect former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb party to win by a significant margin. But years of corruption scandals and accusations of mafia ties, which he denies, have made it difficult for him to forge a coalition. Borissov ran Bulgaria on and off for more than a decade until anti-graft protests brought him down in 2021.
Political analysts won’t rule out another election in early 2025.
The Balkan country has repeatedly faced scrutiny from Brussels over corruption in politics and the judiciary. The stalemate has also delayed plans to adopt the euro to late next year or early 2026 and held up billions of euros in EU aid.
Exit polls will be published after the voting ends at 8 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected a few hours later.
Here’s what to watch:
Coalition Commotion
Borissov has pitched a coalition to keep Bulgaria on its pro-western course to a bloc of parties led by former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. But backing from the alliance, which has run on an anti-corruption agenda, isn’t guaranteed and may not suffice. Petkov’s bloc emerged as the biggest loser of June’s election.
Borissov has vowed to take office as prime minister himself, should his party win by a large margin, but hasn’t ruled out going alone in a minority government.
Smaller parties are unlikely to back a government without either Petkov or Borissov’s blocs. Potential coalition partners are hard to predict, as several small anti-establishment parties are close to the threshold needed to enter parliament.
Turnout Troubles
Bulgarians’ willingness to vote has fallen precipitously since Borissov first took office fifteen years ago. Back then, the turnout exceeded 60%.
None of the latest votes produced a stable majority and only a third of eligible voters turned up at the polling stations in June. That trend may continue with Sunday’s turnout expected to hit an all-time low, depriving political parties of public backing required for key reforms.
Pro-Russia Vote
The low turnout is also likely to strengthen a Moscow-friendly nationalist Revival party, which has come second in recent opinion polls. It wants to take Bulgaria out of NATO and has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points about the war in Ukraine.
Revival has no friends among the mainstream parties. But were Borissov’s Gerb as the likely winner fail to form a government, Bulgaria’s president is obliged to give the mandate to the runner-up. Revival was running neck-and-neck with Petkov’s bloc in the most recent polls.
While chances for an outright anti-western majority are slim, the politicking born of the turmoil has already helped Revival pass a law against the so-called LGBTQ ‘propaganda’ in schools, which activists have slammed as echoing Russian legislation.
Bulgaria has long been one of the most Russia-friendly members of the EU and Revival is not the only anti-establishment party, which has demonstrated sympathy toward the Kremlin.
Sanctioned Kingmaker
A major headache for all political players, but also a potential ally, is Delyan Peevski. His party backed Borissov’s cabinet after the June election.
A lawmaker and former media mogul sanctioned by the US for corruption, Peevski is seen as the face of graft in Bulgaria and a politically toxic coalition partner.
Political infighting has split Peevski’s own party in two since June, weakening his clout in parliament. Nevertheless, opponents say his influence in the judiciary and law enforcement remains strong.
Euro Doubts
Successive governments have argued that adopting the EU’s single currency will help Bulgaria close the wealth gap with other member states. One of the EU’s least-indebted countries, Bulgaria seeks to meet its inflation targets in order to adopt the euro as early as next year.
However, politicians’ promises have already pushed government spending to the limit of what Brussels allows. More political uncertainty may make it even harder for Sofia to convince the European Central Bank and the EU that it is ready to join the euro zone.
--With assistance from Julius Domoney.
Vessela SERGUEVA
Sun, October 27, 2024 at 4:23 PM MDT
3 min read
Rising voter apathy is palpable on the streets of Sofia, with people telling AFP they are 'fed up' (Nikolay DOYCHINOV)Nikolay DOYCHINOV/AFP/AFP
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways
The conservative party of former premier Boyko Borisov came first in Bulgaria's seventh general election in less than four years on Sunday, according to early results, but analysts warned that the lack of a majority meant lingering uncertainty.
Borisov's GERB party won about 25 percent of the vote, according to projections published by polling institutes with 80 percent of votes counted.
The reformist coalition PP-DB and the pro-Russia ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane party were in a close race for second place, gaining around 13 percent to 15 percent of the ballots.
"We are again waiting at the same bus stop to see whether GERB and PP-DB will reach an agreement" to isolate the far-right Vazrazhdane, said analyst Andrey Raichev on television.
The European Union's poorest member country has been at a political standstill since 2021 after massive anti-corruption protests in 2020 triggered the downfall of one Borisov-led cabinet.
Six votes since then have failed to yield a stable government.
Late Sunday, Borisov pledged to work on forming another government, adding he was willing to "compromise" despite securing a "categorical victory", but excluded working with the far right.
GERB will likely struggle to find partners to govern in the extremely fragmented parliament, where eight parties are expected to be represented.
- 'Without outside interference' -
Compared to the last election, voter turnout slightly increased to 38 percent. At a vote in June, turnout plummeted to just 34 percent -- the lowest since the end of communism.
According to a recent opinion poll, about 60 percent of Bulgarians surveyed said the political deadlock was "extremely alarming".
"We're fed up, that's for sure," said Aneliya Ivanova ahead of the vote, echoing rising voter apathy.
"We're tired of being stuck in a carousel that goes round and round, and every time it's the same result," the 33-year-old IT worker told AFP.
The political impasse -- which is unprecedented since 1989 -- has also favoured the Vazrazhdane party.
"Bulgaria must remain an independent country, without outside interference," the group's president Kostadin Kostadinov said, referring to the EU and the United States.
Vazrazhdane appears to have gained influence since proposing a law banning LGBTQ "propaganda" that was passed by parliament in August.
The legislation was inspired by a similar law in Russia. Even though Bulgaria is a NATO member, many citizens remain strongly pro-Russian.
- Undecided White House race -
According to analyst Raichev, Borisov will wait for the result of the November US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris before forming a government.
"Borisov will feel much more comfortable if Trump becomes president," he added.
The election of Republican Trump and his "leniency towards corruption" could prompt GERB to form a minority cabinet with tacit backing from former tycoon Delyan Peevski, who is the target of US and British sanctions, said analyst Dobromir Zhivkov, director of the Market Links institute.
The 44-year-old lawmaker has created a breakaway faction within the Turkish minority MRF party, which took fourth place Sunday with around 10 percent of the vote.
Amid fears of electoral fraud, public prosecutors launched hundreds of investigations ahead of the vote. More than 70 people suspected of vote-buying were arrested.
Prolonged political instability has put key anti-corruption reforms as well as the country's energy transition on hold, jeopardising the payout of European funds.
Bulgaria's goals of joining the eurozone and the free movement Schengen area via land have also slipped further away.
A further burden to the country is the cost of organising seven elections amounting to several hundred million euros.
No comments:
Post a Comment