Sunday, October 27, 2024

Georgia's jailed ex-president says Putin's Russia is not ready for a new 'hot' war

DAVID BRENNAN
Sat, October 26, 2024 a

Georgia's Saturday parliamentary elections have been cast by all parties as an era-defining moment for the country's 3.8 million people.

For one of the country's best known men, the results of the election could mean the difference between incarceration and freedom.

Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, 56, has been jailed since 2021 on charges of abuse of power and organizing an assault on an opposition lawmaker -- charges he contends are politically motivated.


"My imprisonment is purely political and everyone knows that," Saakashvili told ABC News in an interview conducted from his prison cell via intermediaries. "Once the politics changes, it will be finished."


PHOTO: In this Sept. 23, 2008 file photo President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili addresses the 63rd annual United Nations General Assembly meeting at UN headquarters in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images, FILE)More

MORE: War or peace? Russia’s wrath hangs over Georgia elections

Saturday's election will pit the Moscow-leaning Georgian Dream government against several pro-Western opposition parties, among them the United National Movement party founded by Saakashvili in 2001.

Among the UNM's priorities, if it wins power as part of a pro-Western coalition, will be to free Saakashvili.

The campaign has been fraught with allegations of meddling and political violence on behalf of GD. The opposition is hoping to mobilize a historic turnout to defeat what they say are GD efforts to undermine the contest.

"The only recipe for tackling election meddling is erecting the wall of mass turnout at the ballot box," Saakashvili said.

People power has proved a serious problem for GD in recent years. Mass protests defeated the government's first effort to introduce a foreign agents registration law -- which critics say was modeled on Russian legislation used to criminalize Western-leaning politicians, activists and academics -- in 2023.

The government pushed the legislation through again in 2024 despite renewed and intense demonstrations.

Opponents credit GD founder, former prime minister and Georgia's richest man -- Bidzina Ivanishvili -- as the mastermind behind what they say is the government's authoritarian and pro-Moscow pivot, though the billionaire does not hold an official position.

Saakashvili said Ivanishvili -- who made his fortune in Russia after the Soviet collapse -- and the GD party "will go as far as it takes" to retain power this weekend, "but the question will be once they lose the elections if the government structures follow the orders from the oligarch," he added, referring to Ivanishvili.

PHOTO: Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili attends the final campaign rally of the ruling Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 23, 2024. (Giorgi Arjevanidze/AFP via Getty Images)

Ivanishvili and his party are framing the vote as a choice between war and peace. A new Western-led government, they say, will put Tbilisi back on the path to conflict with Russia, reviving the bloodshed of the 2008 war that saw Moscow cement its occupation of 20% of Georgian territory.

"It is straight from the Russian playbook," Saakashvili said of the GD warnings. "Blaming victims for aggression against them. As far as we are concerned, real security and peace is associated with being part of Euro-Atlantic structures, and European Union membership is within reach." Georgia received EU candidate status in 2023.

The latest polls suggest that GD will emerge as the largest party, but will fall significantly short of a parliamentary majority. A grand alliance of pro-EU and pro-NATO opposition parties, though, could get past the 50% threshold to form a new governing coalition.

"Polls are a very treacherous thing in authoritarian systems," Saakashvili said. "Moldova's recent example shows that polls get compromised by mass vote buying, and surely that will be the case in Georgia."

"On the other hand, those that say to pollsters that they are voting for the government very often don't say the truth," he added.

PHOTO: A man holds a Georgian flag during an opposition rally ahead of the parliamentary election in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 20, 2024. (Shakh Aivazov/AP)

Saakashvili's 2021 imprisonment marked the nadir of a 20-year political rollercoaster. Saakashvili went from the much-loved leader of Georgia's pro-Western Rose Revolution in 2003 to being vanquished by President Vladimir Putin's Russian military machine by 2008.

By 2011, Saakashvili's government was itself accused of violently suppressing protests, with the president soon also embroiled in human rights and corruption scandals.

Constitutionally barred from serving three consecutive terms, Saakashvili left Georgia after the 2013 presidential election and in 2018 was convicted in absentia on abuse of power and other charges.

A Ukrainian citizen -- his citizenship was revoked by President Petro Poroshenko in 2017 before being restored by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2019 -- Saakashvili went on to serve as governor of the Odessa region from 2015 to 2016. Zelenskyy appointed Saakashvili as the head of the executive committee of the National Council of Reforms in 2020.

Saakashvili returned to Georgia in October 2021 as the country prepared for local elections. He was arrested and detained by police.

His domestic and international allies have repeatedly condemned his imprisonment, raising concerns of his ill treatment and subsequent ill health. U.S. and European Union officials have also urged Tbilisi to do more to ensure Saakashvili's fair treatment.

PHOTO: Former Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili appears in court in Tbilisi, Georgia on Nov. 29, 2021. (Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters/Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, FILE)

He has been hospitalized while in prison -- once due to a hunger strike -- and his gaunt appearance during a 2023 video conference court hearing prompted Zelenskyy to summon the Georgian ambassador in Kyiv to complain.

Saakashvili broadly blames Putin for his current situation. But he believes Moscow is not necessarily in a position to prevent a pro-Western pivot in Tbilisi.

"In 2008, the war happened after the West had sent a clear sign of weakness by refusing the NATO accession for Georgia and Ukraine," Saakashvili said.

"If there is no hesitation this time, Russia is so stuck in Ukraine that it has no motivation to create a new hot war elsewhere."

"We have no other choice," he responded, when asked about the risks of perturbing the Kremlin. "The only other alternative is going back," he said, "living in the Russian sphere of influence."

As to his own plans if indeed he is freed, Saakashvili described himself as "a regional rather than purely Georgian leader."

"I will help any next non-oligarch government with transition by advice," he added, but said he will not seek any official position of power.

"And of course, I am a Ukrainian national and it is my duty to stand by Ukraine."


PHOTO: Supporters of Georgia's pro-Western and pro-European Union opposition groups hold a rally ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 20, 2024. (Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters)

EU leader denounces Russia's 'hybrid war' aiming to destabilize Western Balkan democracies

Associated Press
Updated Sat, October 26, 2024


European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen listens to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic during a news conference at the Serbia Palace in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)ASSOCIATED PRESS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a media conference after talks with Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajic in Podgorica, Montenegro, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Risto Bozovic)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajic, right, shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Podgorica, Montenegro, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Risto Bozovic)

PRISTINA, Kosovo (AP) — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday denounced Russia's hybrid attacks against democracies, saying the European Union is fighting daily to debunk misinformation.

Von der Leyen was in Kosovo as part of a trip this week to aspiring EU member states in the Western Balkans to assure them that enlargement remains a priority for the 27-nation bloc.

Von der Leyen denounced Russia's efforts “to destabilize these democracies,” adding that Brussels works to unveil propaganda “to the benefit of a whole region.”

“It is possible for us to stand up with the truth and with transparency and with very clear messaging. So here we are really countering a hybrid attack that Russia is leading against democracies,” she said at a news conference in the capital, Pristina.

Von der Leyen came to Kosovo from neighboring Serbia, which has close ties to Russia and has refused to join international sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

She did not mention the 13-year-old EU-led dialogue to normalize ties between Serbia and its former province, Kosovo, instead focusing on EU efforts to develop the region's economy.

Kosovo-Serbia ties remain tense, even 25 years after NATO’s 78-day bombing campaign in 1999 that ended a war between Serbian government forces and ethnic Albanian separatists in Kosovo, which left about 13,000 people dead, mainly ethnic Albanians. Kosovo proclaimed independence in 2008, which Belgrade has not recognized.



Last year EU officials offered a 6-billion-euro (about $6.5 billion) growth plan to the Western Balkan countries in an effort to double the region’s economy over the next decade and accelerate their efforts to join the bloc. That aid is contingent on reforms that would bring their economies in line with EU rules.

The Western Balkan countries — Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia — are at different stages in their applications for EU membership. The countries have been frustrated by the slow pace of the process, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has propelled European leaders to push the six to join the bloc.

The Commission on Wednesday approved the reform agendas of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia following a green light from EU member states. That was a key step to allow payments under the growth plan upon completion of agreed reform steps.

Von der Leyen's trip concluded with a visit to small Montenegro, a NATO member state which is seen as the first in line for EU membership. Von der Leyen praised Montenegro's effortson the EU path, saying “we are now closing one chapter after another.”



Montenegro's government is a cohabitation between pro-EU and pro-Russian factions. Von der Leyen urged unity in the divided nation to achieve progress toward EU membership.

“I want to assure you that, like in my first mandate, enlargement will be at the top of the political agenda for the next five years," said von der Leyen. “We have now all the necessary tools, all the necessary instruments in place, so let’s make it happen, let’s make it a reality, and work towards this common goal.”

___

AP writer Predrag Milic contributed from Podgorica, Montenegro.


EU leader praises Serbia for its advances in EU membership bid despite growing Russian influence

DUSAN STOJANOVIC
Updated Fri, October 25, 2024

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, left, shakes hands with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic after a news conference at the Serbia Palace in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday praised the Serbian president for meeting her and other European Union leaders instead of attending a Russia-organized summit of developing economies held earlier this week.

Serbia has close ties to Russia and has refused to join international sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. In a telephone conversation Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, populist Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said EU candidate Serbia would maintain its stance on sanctions, notwithstanding EU and other Western pressure.

However, despite Putin's invitation, Vucic did not attend a three-day summit of the BRICS group of nations, led by Russia and China, which took place in the Russian city of Kazan earlier this week. Leaders or representatives of 36 countries took part in the summit, highlighting the failure of U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

Vucic sent a high-level delegation to the meeting, but said he could not attend himself because he had scheduled meetings with von der Leyen and Polish and Greek leaders. There are fears in the West that Putin is plotting trouble in the volatile Balkans in part to shift some of the attention from its invasion of Ukraine.

“What I see is that the president of the Republic of Serbia is hosting me here today and just has hosted the prime minister of Greece and the prime minister of Poland. That speaks for itself, I think," von der Leyen said at a joint press conference with Vucic.

“And for my part, I want to say that my presence here today, in the context of my now fourth trip to the Balkan region since I took office, is a very clear sign that I believe that Serbia’s future is in the European Union," she said.

Vucic said he knows what the EU is demanding for eventual membership — including compliance with foreign policy goals — but did not pledge further coordination.



“Of course, Ursula asked for much greater compliance with EU’s foreign policy declaration," he said. “We clearly know what the demands are, what the expectations are.”

Von der Leyen was in Serbia as part of a trip this week to aspiring EU member states in the Western Balkans to assure them that EU enlargement remains a priority for the 27-nation bloc. From Serbia, von der Leyen will travel to neighboring Kosovo and Montenegro.

Serbian media reported that von der Leyen refused to meet with Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic because of his talks Friday with a high-level Russian economic delegation, which was in Belgrade to discuss deepening ties with Serbia. Vucic will meet the Russian officials on Saturday.

In Bosnia on Friday, von der Leyen promised support for the deeply split Balkan country which is struggling with the reforms needed to advance toward EU membership.

The Western Balkan countries — Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia — are at different stages in their applications for EU membership. The countries have been frustrated by the slow pace of the process, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has propelled European leaders to push the six to join the bloc.

Bosnia gained candidate status in 2022. EU leaders in March agreed in principle to open membership negotiations, though Bosnia must still do a lot of work.

“We share the same vision for the future, a future where Bosnia-Herzegovina is a full-fledged member of the European Union,” said von der Leyen at a joint press conference with Bosnian Prime Minister Bojana Kristo. “So, I would say, let’s continue working on that. We’ve gone a long way already, we still have a way ahead of us, but I am confident that you’ll make it.”

Last year EU officials offered a 6-billion-euro (about $6.5 billion) growth plan to the Western Balkan countries in an effort to double the region’s economy over the next decade and accelerate their efforts to join the bloc. That aid is contingent on reforms that would bring their economies in line with EU rules.


The Commission on Wednesday approved the reform agendas of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia following a green light from EU member states. That was a key step to allow payments under the growth plan upon completion of agreed reform steps.

However, Bosnia's reform agenda has still not been signed off by the Commission.

“The accession process is, as you know, merit-based … we do not look at a rigid data but we look at the merits, the progress that a country is making,” said von der Leyen. "The important thing is that we have an ambitious reform agenda, like the other five Western Balkan countries also have. We stand ready to help you to move forward.”

Long after a 1992-95 ethnic war that killed more than 100,000 people and left millions homeless, Bosnia remains ethnically divided and politically deadlocked. An ethnic Serb entity — one of Bosnia's two equal parts joined by a common government — has sought to gain as much independence as possible.

Upon arrival in Bosnia, von der Leyen on Thursday first went to Donja Jablanica, a village in central Bosnia that was devastated in recent floods and landslides. The disaster in early October claimed 27 lives and the small village was virtually buried in rocks from a quarry located on a hill above.

Von der Leyen said the EU is sending an immediate aid package of 20 million euros ($21 million) and will also provide support for reconstruction later on.

—-

AP writer Jovana Gec contributed from Belgrade.



'We will do our best to accelerate our European path,' Serbia's Vučić says

Euronews
Fri, October 25, 2024 at 10:44 AM MDT



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade on Friday to discuss Serbia's path toward the European Union.

“Europe remains strongly committed to the European future of Serbia,” von der Leyen said after meeting with Vučić.

"In times of conflicts and wars and turmoil, being a member of the European Union is a promise of peace and prosperity, and it is a promise that we can deliver together," she added.



The Commission President was in Serbia as part of a trip this week to aspiring EU member states in the Western Balkans, aiming to reassure them that EU enlargement remains a priority for the 27-nation bloc.

Earlier on Friday she visited Bosnia where she promised support for the troubled Balkan nation as it struggles with reform needed to advance toward membership in the European Union.

The Western Balkans countries — Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia — are at different stages in their applications for EU membership.

The countries have expressed frustration over the slow pace of the process; however, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has prompted European leaders to encourage the six nations to join the bloc.

Related
'Without Serbia EU is not complete,' Polish PM Donald Tusk says

Last year EU officials offered a €6 billion growth plan to the Western Balkan countries in an effort to double the region’s economy over the next decade and accelerate their efforts to join the bloc.

That aid is contingent on reforms that would bring their economies in line with EU rules.

Vučić on Friday said Serbia would "give our best" to "accelerate" its path to joining the EU. Serbia became an EU candidate country in 2012.

The Commission on Wednesday approved the reform agendas of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia following a green light from EU member states. It was a key step to allow payments under the growth plan upon completion of agreed reform steps.



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reviews the honor guard with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic during a welcome ceremony at the Serbia Palace in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)ASSOCIATED PRESS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen smiles during a joint news conference with the President of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina Borjana Kristo in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Bosnian Serb political leader Milorad Dodik attend a meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)ASSOCIATED PRESS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint news conference with the President of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina Borjana Kristo in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut)ASSOCIATED PRESS

Members of the Bosnian Presidency Zeljka Cvijanovic, left, Denis Becirovic, center and Zeljko Komsic, right, pose for a photo with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, prior to the start of their meeting in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut)ASSOCIATED PRESS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a media conference after talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at the Serbia Palace in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)ASSOCIATED PRESS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives at a news conference after talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at the Serbia Palace in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)ASSOCIATED PRESS

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