Ted Cruz or Colin Allred? New polls still show tight race for Senate in Texas

Eleanor Dearman
Fri, October 18, 2024 

U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, left, and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, take part in a debate for the U.S. Senate hosted by WFAA on Monday, Oct. 15, 2024, in Dallas, Texas.


The latest poll by a group whose September survey put U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz ahead U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is still showing razor-thin margins in the race for Senate, but this time it’s Cruz who is ahead.

The new poll by Morning Consult from October has Cruz leading his Democratic opponent by 1 percentage point. The survey of 2,048 likely Texas voters was conducted on Oct. 6-15. There is a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The poll predicts Cruz winning 46% of votes and Allred winning 45%. Seven percent of those surveyed said they don’t know who they are voting for or don’t have an opinion. Two percent said they planned to vote for someone else.

The October poll follows Morning Consult’s September version that had Allred up by one point, also with a two percentage point margin of error. The poll was the first putting the Dallas congressman in the lead over the two-term Republican, according to Allred’s campaign and a compilation of polls from 538.

The Morning Consult polls show closer margins than most, with Cruz predicted to finish 3.7 points ahead of Allred on average, according to 538.

Another poll released Friday Oct. 18 from The Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin puts Cruz ahead by seven points, winning 51% of votes among likely voters to Allred’s 44% and Libertarian Ted Brown’s 4%. The poll of 1,091 likely Texas voters taken between Oct. 2-10 has a 2.97 percentage point margin of error.

The race is getting national attention as Democrats work to hold onto their control in the U.S. Senate.

At the top of the ticket is the race for president between former President Donald Trump, a Republican, and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.

The Morning Consult poll puts Trump up by four percentage points in Texas. The Texas Politics Project has the Trump-Vance campaign up by five percentage points.

Election Day is Nov. 5. Early voting starts Monday, Oct. 21 and runs through Nov. 1.