It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, March 28, 2023
Astronomers analyze first results from ESO telescopes on the aftermath of DART's asteroid impact
This series of images, taken with the MUSE instrument on ESO’s Very Large Telescope,shows the evolution of the cloud of debris that was ejected when NASA’s DART spacecraft collided with the asteroid Dimorphos. The first image was taken on 26 September 2022, just before the impact, and the last one was taken almost one month later on 25 October. Over this period several structures developed: clumps, spirals, and a long tail of dust pushed away by the Sun’s radiation. The white arrow in each panel marks the direction of the Sun. Dimorphos orbits a larger asteroid called Didymos. The white horizontal bar corresponds to 500 kilometers, but the asteroids are only 1 kilometer apart, so they can’t be discerned in these images. The background streaks seen here are due to the apparent movement of the background stars during the observations while the telescope was tracking the asteroid pair. Credit: ESO/Opitom et al.
Using ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT), two teams of astronomers have observed the aftermath of the collision between NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft and the asteroid Dimorphos. The controlled impact was a test of planetary defense, but also gave astronomers a unique opportunity to learn more about the asteroid's composition from the expelled material.
On September 26, 2022, the DART spacecraft collided with the asteroid Dimorphos in a controlled test of our asteroid deflection capabilities. The impact took place 11 million kilometers away from Earth, close enough to be observed in detail with many telescopes. All four 8.2-meter telescopes of ESO's VLT in Chile observed the aftermath of the impact, and the first results of these VLT observations have now been published in two papers.
"Asteroids are some of the most basic relics of what all the planets and moons in our solar system were created from," says Brian Murphy, a Ph.D. student at the University of Edinburgh in the UK and co-author of one of the studies. "Studying the cloud of material ejected after DART's impact can therefore tell us about how our solar system formed."
"Impacts between asteroids happen naturally, but you never know it in advance," continues Cyrielle Opitom, an astronomer also at the University of Edinburgh and lead author of one of the articles. "DART is a really great opportunity to study a controlled impact, almost as in a laboratory."
Opitom and her team followed the evolution of the cloud of debris for a month with the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) instrument at ESO's VLT. They found that the ejected cloud was bluer than the asteroid itself was before the impact, indicating that the cloud could be made of very fine particles. In the hours and days that followed the impact other structures developed: clumps, spirals and a long tail pushed away by the sun's radiation. The spirals and tail were redder than the initial cloud, and so could be made of larger particles.
MUSE allowed Opitom's team to break up the light from the cloud into a rainbow-like pattern and look for the chemical fingerprints of different gases. In particular, they searched for oxygen and water coming from ice exposed by the impact. But they found nothing.
"Asteroids are not expected to contain significant amounts of ice, so detecting any trace of water would have been a real surprise," explains Opitom. They also looked for traces of the propellant of the DART spacecraft, but found none. "We knew it was a long shot," she says, "as the amount of gas that would be left in the tanks from the propulsion system would not be huge. Furthermore, some of it would have traveled too far to detect it with MUSE by the time we started observing."
Another team, led by Stefano Bagnulo, an astronomer at the Armagh Observatory and Planetarium in the UK, studied how the DART impact altered the surface of the asteroid.
"When we observe the objects in our solar system, we are looking at the sunlight that is scattered by their surface or by their atmosphere, which becomes partially polarized," explains Bagnulo. This means that light waves oscillate along a preferred direction rather than randomly. "Tracking how the polarization changes with the orientation of the asteroid relative to us and the sun reveals the structure and composition of its surface."
Bagnulo and his colleagues used the FOcal Reducer/low dispersion Spectrograph 2 (FORS2) instrument at the VLT to monitor the asteroid, and found that the level of polarization suddenly dropped after the impact. At the same time, the overall brightness of the system increased. One possible explanation is that the impact exposed more pristine material from the interior of the asteroid.
"Maybe the material excavated by the impact was intrinsically brighter and less polarizing than the material on the surface, because it was never exposed to solar wind and solar radiation," says Bagnulo.
Another possibility is that the impact destroyed particles on the surface, thus ejecting much smaller ones into the cloud of debris. "We know that under certain circumstances, smaller fragments are more efficient at reflecting light and less efficient at polarizing it," explains Zuri Gray, a Ph.D. student also at the Armagh Observatory and Planetarium.
The studies by the teams led by Bagnulo and Opitom show the potential of the VLT when its different instruments work together. In fact, in addition to MUSE and FORS2, the aftermath of the impact was observed with two other VLT instruments, and analysis of these data is ongoing.
"This research took advantage of a unique opportunity when NASA impacted an asteroid," concludes Opitom, "so it cannot be repeated by any future facility. This makes the data obtained with the VLT around the time of impact extremely precious when it comes to better understanding the nature of asteroids."
The research highlighted in the first part of this article was presented in the paper "Morphology and spectral properties of the DART impact ejecta with VLT/MUSE," which appears in Astronomy & Astrophysics. The second part of this article refers to the paper "Optical spectropolarimetry of binary asteroid Didymos-Dimorphos before and after the DART impact" in Astrophysical Journal Letters.
More information: C. Opitom et al, Morphology and spectral properties of the DART impact ejecta with VLT/MUSE, Astronomy & Astrophysics (2023). DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202345960
Optical spectropolarimetry of binary asteroid Didymos-Dimorphos before and after the DART impact, Astrophysical Journal Letters (2023). DOI: 0.3847/2041-8213/acb261. iopscience.iop.org/article/10. … 847/2041-8213/acb261
Spirals, Tails, And Reflective Dust Were Released In DART Asteroid Collision
Deep observations have revealed insight into the Didymos-Dimorphos system.
DR. ALFREDO CARPINETI Senior Staff Writer & Space Correspondent
Published March 21, 2023
Artist's impression of the DART impact on Dimorphos. Image Credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser
Last September, DART hit asteroid Dimorphos, the small companion of asteroid Didymos. The impact was a test of planetary defense, showing that we can truly shift the orbit of a celestial body. But it was also a chance to study what an impact on an asteroid looks like. And astronomers did not waste time in pointing some of the most powerful telescopes at it.
Using the Very Lage Telescope, part of the European Southern Observatory (ESO), astronomers were able to spot features, composition, and peculiarities of the dust released in the impact. And it gave them a great deal of information about what happens when asteroids collide.
“Impacts between asteroids happen naturally, but you never know it in advance,” the lead author of one of two new studies, Cyrielle Opitom, an astronomer at the University of Edinburg, said in a statement. “DART is a really great opportunity to study a controlled impact, almost as in a laboratory.”
This research team followed the evolution of the dust cloud from mere hours after the impact to a month later. At first, the ejected cloud was bluer in color than the asteroid, suggesting that it was made of finer particles, but as time went by and it expanded, the team saw structures develop such as clumps, spirals, and long tails. And as more time went by, they appeared redder and redder, suggesting large particles were the main components of these.
The team also looked for water ice from the asteroid – there was little hope of finding it as they tend to be very dry, but it was important to check. They also looked for any residual fuels from DART, but it impacted the asteroid almost empty.
“We knew it was a long shot,” Opitom explained, “as the amount of gas that would be left in the tanks from the propulsion system would not be huge. Furthermore, some of it would have traveled too far to detect it with MUSE by the time we started observing.”
The other research team looked at the polarization of light from the cloud of debris following the impact. Polarized light is light with a specific orientation (the electromagnetic fields of it oscillate on a specific plane) and the atmosphere and surface of a celestial body can change and polarize the light of the Sun. Or clouds of particles from a collision.
“Tracking how the polarisation changes with the orientation of the asteroid relative to us and the Sun reveals the structure and composition of its surface,” lead author Stefano Bagnulo, an astronomer at the Armagh Observatory and Planetarium in the UK, explained.
Following the impact, the scientists noticed that the level of polarization decreased but the brightness of the system increased, suggesting that the material ejected might have been more pristine and brighter, coming from the subsurface so not previously exposed to solar radiation. Or it could be a question of size.
”We know that under certain circumstances, smaller fragments are more efficient at reflecting light and less efficient at polarising it,” explained Zuri Gray, a PhD student also at the Armagh Observatory and Planetarium.
This is just the beginning of this data analysis. More work is currently being done to analyze what the ESO observatories have seen in this fantastic event.
Research team finds indirect evidence for existence of dark matter surrounding black holes
by The Education University of Hong Kong
Credit: The Education University of Hong Kong (EdUHK)
Dark matter does not emit or reflect light, nor does it interact with electromagnetic forces, making it exceptionally difficult to detect. Nevertheless, a research team from The Education University of Hong Kong (EdUHK) has proven that there is a substantial amount of dark matter surrounding black holes. The study results are published in the journal The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The team selected two nearby black holes (A0620-00 and XTE J1118+480) as research subjects, with both considered as binary systems. That is, each of the black holes has a companion star orbiting it. Based on the orbits of the companion stars, observations indicate that their rates of orbital decay are approximately one millisecond (1ms) per year, which is about 50 times greater than the theoretical estimation of about 0.02ms annually.
To examine whether dark matter exists around black holes, the EdUHK team applied the "dark matter dynamical friction model"—a theory widely held in academia—to the two chosen binary systems, through computer simulations. The team found that the fast orbital decay of the companion stars precisely matches the data observed.
Notably, this is indirect evidence that dark matter around black holes can generate significant dynamical friction, slowing down the orbital speed of the companion stars.
The findings, which verified a theoretical hypothesis formulated in the late 20th century, represent a breakthrough in dark matter research. According to the hypothesis, dark matter close enough to black holes would be swallowed, leaving the remnants to be redistributed. The process ends up forming a "density spike" around the black holes.
Dr. Chan Man-ho, Associate Professor in the Department of Science and Environmental Studies and Principal Investigator, explained that such a high density of dark matter would create dynamical friction to the companion star, in a way similar to drag force.
"This is the first-ever study to apply the 'dynamical friction model' in an effort to validate and prove the existence of dark matter surrounding black holes," he said. "The study provides an important new direction for future dark matter research."
Dr. Chan further mentioned that previous studies, which relied mostly on gamma rays and gravitational wave detection to examine the presence of dark matter, depended on the occurrence of rare events, such as a merger of two black holes. According to him, that might require a prolonged waiting time for astronomers.
The novel approach adopted by EdUHK team, however, will no longer be confined by these limitations. He added, "In the Milky Way Galaxy alone, there are at least 18 binary systems akin to our research subjects, which can provide rich information to help unravel the mystery of dark matter."
More information: Man Ho Chan et al, Indirect Evidence for Dark Matter Density Spikes around Stellar-mass Black Holes, The Astrophysical Journal Letters (2023). DOI: 10.3847/2041-8213/acaafa
Gravitational waves from merging black holes go nonlinear
Soon to be ringing: artist’s impression of two black holes that are about to merge. (Courtesy: NASA)
Two independent teams have shown that gravitational waves emanating from the distorted remnants of black-hole mergers should interact with themselves. By including these nonlinear effects in their models, one team, led by Keefe Mitman at Caltech, found it could replicate gravitational wave signals from simulated “ringing” black holes up to 100 times more accurately than previous approaches. The other team came to a similar conclusion and was led by Mark Ho-Yeuk Cheung at Johns Hopkins University
Following the violent and energetic merging of two black holes, the distorted black hole that is created must quickly settle into a state of equilibrium. To reach this steady state, the object releases colossal amounts of energy in the form of gravitational waves (GWs), in a process called black hole ringdown.
In 1973 a team led by Saul Teukolsky was the first to model GWs from ringdown – more than 40 years before the first GWs from merging black holes were detected by the LIGO observatory. Yet at the time, Teukolsky and colleagues only considered small distortions in remnant black holes, something that we now know is not a good description of what happens after a merger. Large distortions
“Because black-hole mergers are so violent, the distortions of the final black hole are often large,” Mitman explains. “This means that we should expect nonlinear effects [such as] effects from the GW interacting with itself as it propagates through spacetime near the black hole, generating new waves.”
Despite this, astrophysicists have so far held to the idea that nonlinear effects must be too small to show up in observable GW signals. As a result, they have still only considered the linear effects calculated by Teukolsky’s team.
In one new study, Mitman, Teukolsky and colleagues employed a more advanced approach to modelling black hole ringdowns. Following a suggestion from team member Macarena Lagos at Columbia University, the team developed a new way to consider how a model could describe the self-interaction of the GWs emitted after black-hole mergers.
Lagos explains, “We have improved the GW model by including nonlinear interactions of gravity. We considered various numerical simulations of black-hole mergers, containing both linear and nonlinear interactions. We then quantified how well our nonlinear model reproduced the simulations.” More precise model
Just as they predicted, the researchers’ new approach allowed them to replicate realistic GW signals far more closely than before. “By including this nonlinear term, rather than the more-familiar linear terms that Teukolsky helped discover, we can much more precisely model the GWs created in our numerical simulations,” Mitman continues. “This means that when black holes ringdown to a steady state, that ringing is a nonlinear process.”
By analysing various simulations of black-hole mergers, the team found that nonlinear effects can account for up to 10% of the GW signals – making them far more influential than previous studies had assumed. Altogether, this meant the team could model black-hole ringdowns some 100 times more accurate than purely linear approaches.
The team led by Cheung came to similar conclusions and together the results could have important implications for astronomers’ ability to probe the interior structures of black holes from the GW signals they emit during ringdowns. “To extract physical information from GW signals, we need very accurate analytical models that connect properties of the black holes to features in the detected signal,” Lagos explains. “Our results mean that the nonlinear effects are actually important and will be necessary to include in future GW detections.”
With a better understanding that ringdown is nonlinear in nature, the team hopes its discoveries could soon help astronomers to better explain the enigmatic behaviours of black holes.
Perhaps most importantly, they could also enable researchers to test Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity – which governs black hole dynamics – in the most extreme environments known to astrophysics. With the precision offered by the team’s models, these tests may finally prove stringent enough to push Einstein’s theory to its limits – which could allow new and exciting physics to emerge. However, astrophysicists will have to wait until the next generation of GW observatories come online because the current LIGO–Virgo facilities are not expected to be able to detect nonlinear effects.
Black holes with dimensions of billions of kilometers (left, as imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope) share features with a dense state of subatomic gluons created in collisions of atomic nuclei (right). Credit: Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration (left) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (right).
Physicists have discovered a remarkable correspondence between dense states of gluons—the gluelike carriers of the strong nuclear force within atomic nuclei—and enormous black holes in the cosmos.
The dense walls of gluons, known as a color glass condensate (CGC), are generated in collisions of atomic nuclei. This CGC measures a mere 10-19 kilometers across—less than a billionth of a kilometer. Black holes, in contrast, span billions of kilometers across.
The study, published in Physical Review D, shows that both systems are made of densely packed, self-interacting force carrier particles. In CGC, those particles are gluons. In black holes, those particles are gravitons. Both gluons in CGC and gravitons in black holes are organized in the most efficient manner possible for each system's energy and size.
The high degree of order in CGC and black holes is driven by each system packing in the maximal amount of quantum "information" possible about the particles' features. This includes their spatial distributions, velocities, and collective forces. Such limits on "information" content are universal.
This means the research suggests that quantum information science could provide novel organizing principles for understanding these widely different systems. The mathematical correspondence between these systems also means that studying each can improve our understanding of the other. Of particular interest are comparisons of gravitational shockwaves in black hole mergers with gluon shockwaves in nuclear collisions.
Scientists study the strong force in nuclear collisions. For example, at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, a Department of Energy user facility, atomic nuclei accelerated close to the speed of light become dense walls of gluons known as color glass condensate (CGC). When the nuclei collide, CGC evolves to form a nearly perfect liquid of quarks and gluons, the fundamental building blocks that make up all visible matter.
Though the strong force operates at subatomic scales, this recent analysis by scientists at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, the Max Planck Institute for Physics, and Brookhaven National Laboratory shows that CGC shares features with black holes, enormous conglomerates of gravitons that exert gravitational force across the universe.
Both sets of self-interacting particles appear to organize themselves in a way that satisfies a universal limit on the amount of entropy, or disorder, that can exist in each system. This mathematical correspondence points to similarities between black hole formation, thermalization, and decay and what happens when walls of gluons collide in nuclear collisions at ultrarelativistic speeds—near the speed of light.
The limit on entropy that drives this correspondence is related to maximal information packing—a key feature of quantum information science (QIS). QIS may therefore further inform scientists' understanding of gluons, gravitons, CGC, and black holes. This approach may also advance the design of quantum computers that use cold atoms to simulate and address questions about these complex systems.
More information: Gia Dvali et al, Classicalization and unitarization of wee partons in QCD and gravity: The CGC-black hole correspondence, Physical Review D (2022). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.105.056026
Danish Defense and the Danish Energy Agency are reporting that they have located an unidentified object alongside an undamaged section of the Nord Stream pipeline that they want to examine. This comes as the investigations continue while elsewhere in Scandinavia they continue to report an increased level of Russian activity around sensitive infrastructure elements. Russia, on Friday, however, indicated that it welcomed the Danish efforts repeating its claims that additional unexploded devices might be near the pipelines.
“The object is cylindrical and is about 40 cm (approximately 16 inches) tall and 10 cm (4 inches) in diameter,” the Danish Energy Agency said in a statement released on March 23. “With a view to further clarifying the nature of the object, Danish authorities have decided to salvage the object with assistance from the Danish Defence.”
This latest development comes as Denmark continues to work on the ongoing investigation as two of the damaged sections of the gas pipeline are within Danish territory. They said that they do not believe there is any immediate danger from the object. Relevant Danish authorities have reportedly examined the images of the object observed by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic. They are speculating that it might be a maritime smoke buoy, normally used as a warning device to send distress signals.
The owners and operators of the pipeline, Nord Stream 2 AG, indicated that they would cooperate with the Danish agencies in their efforts to lift the device from the seafloor.
Russian news agency Tass, also reported on the development saying that Russia also welcomed the efforts. The reiterated claims made by President Vladimir Putin. Last week during an interview he said that Gazprom had received permission to survey the sections of the pipeline and believed that its ship found evidence that could mean there’s another explosive device on a Nord Stream pipeline approximately 18 miles from the site of the damage. Tass quotes Putin as saying “it appears that several explosive devices were planted," and that "Some of them went off, and some didn’t.”
Denmark’s announcement came as the U.S.’s NBC News outlet was reporting that Norway is increasing the number of naval patrols near vital undersea assets including the pipelines and data and telecommunication lines. NBC embedded reports with the Norwegian Navy and released video showing Russian submarines and images of airplanes which the Norwegian say have increased their presence in the region and are acting “more unpredictably.”
Earlier this year, both the Netherlands and Belgium accused Russian vessels of spying on their offshore assets including their wind farms. Both countries said they had detected what they called “spy ships” near their assets but that the vessels had moved away when detected.
The UK Prime Minister who has long advocated for increased surveillance of critical undersea assets late last year accelerated a project to increase his country’s efforts. The UK recently acquired two commercial offshore vessels that are being repurposed for the Royal Navy to monitor undersea pipelines and cables and to provide a capability to handle potential threats such as mines.
Ongoing Incident: Pirates Board Product Tanker in Gulf of Guinea
Pirates are aboard a product tanker off the coast of Congo (file photo)
The relative calm in the Gulf of Guinea appears to have been broken with reports of an ongoing incident with unknown boarders attempting to seize control of a product tanker that was laying off the coast of DR Congo near Point Noire. The French and British monitoring agency Maritime Domain Awareness for Trade Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG) issued a warning which has been followed up by additional warnings to mariners to avoid the area offshore near the southern border of Congo and Angola.
Details on the incident remain scarce, but both MDAT-GoG and private security agencies are reporting that pirates approached and successfully boarded a product tanker overnight between March 25 and March 26. Accounts vary between three and five armed boarders. MDAT-GoG reported that the crew mustered and was able to take refuge in the vessel’s citadel. In their update, they said five armed persons had boarded from a single skiff and remain aboard the tanker attempting to hijack the vessel. They are reporting the incident as ongoing while a rescue effort was being mounted for the crew.
MDAT-GoG has not confirmed the name of the vessel and because the incident is ongoing with the crew still in danger, the details of the vessel are being withheld. The tanker is believed to have been laying off the coast after having departed the port several days ago. The last reported position was approximately 140 nautical miles west of Port Point Noire.
This would be the first confirmed boarding and hijacking in four months. In November, a South Korean-owned product tanker B. Ocean was also boarded near Cote d'Ivoire. The pirates stole oil from the vessel and damaged equipment. The Italian Navy assisted the product tanker in that incident.
MDAT-GoG has issued only five additional reports in the past 90 days for the west coast of Africa. Two involved attempted boardings that were unsuccessful in the northern reaches of the Gulf of Guinea. Those incidents took place at the end of January and the beginning of February near Cameroon. The others involved reports of theft aboard near Takaoradi, Ghana, and one incident near Angola.
The ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) in its 2022 annual report said there had only been 19 incidents in the Gulf of Guinea in 2022. They called for continuing vigilance however saying that the threat remained in the region. Highlighting the continuing danger in the region, the Nigerian Department of State Services in conjunction with other security agencies reports in the last week they have taken into custody eight suspects all believed to be part of criminal gangs in several raids. All of them were armed, mostly with AK47s or in one case a pump action rifle. In one instance the suspect had 432 rounds of ammunition, and another had 468 rounds of ammunition, and all of them had large sums of cash
Brazil Opens Investigation into Sembcorp Marine’s Shipyard Subsidiary
Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz is under investigation in Brazil (file photo)
Sembcorp Marine confirmed in a brief statement issued on March 24 in Singapore that its Brazilian subsidiary is under “investigation of alleged irregularities practices.” No further details were released on the scope of the investigation and if it is related to a nearly decade-old corruption and bribery case which involved the Brazilian oil and gas industry and many of the country’s shipbuilders.
In its statement, Sembcorp Marine reports the Office of the Comptroller General of Brazil (CGU) has published a notice in the official gazette informing of the ongoing investigation into the company’s subsidiary, Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz. They report that the CGU has initiated a preliminary administrative liability proceeding against EJA.
“The notice does not provide further facts and the company is currently unable to assess the matter or impact, if any. EJA is cooperating fully with the authorities,” Sembcorp Marine writes. Analysts in Asia however immediately warned that news of the investigation could weigh down Sembcorp Marine’s share price in the near term, but the stock appeared unaffected in trading on Monday.
Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz is Sembcorp Marine’s wholly-owned shipyard subsidiary in Brazil, located in the municipality of Aracruz. The yard commenced operations in the second half of 2014 and is capable of undertaking construction including for drillships, semi-submersible and jack-up rigs, platforms and supply vessels, and FPSO integration. It can undertake both construction or repair assignments mostly working in the oil and gas sector.
Sembcorp Marine announced in October 2022 that it had won a $3 billion contract for a new FPSO for Petrobras, its largest single order from the Brazilian petroleum giant. The winning bid more than doubled Sembmarine's orderbook by value. In 2022, it also won a contract from Brazil’s Ministry of Defense for a research support vessel.
The company has a long history of working with Brazil’s offshore industry. Last year, Sembcorp Marine highlighted that it had delivered 13 floating production units for deployment in Brazil.
In 2019, Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Offshore both reached agreements with Sete Brasil to settle disputes stemming from 2012 contracts for submersible rigs and drillships that were to be built in connection with their Brazilian yards. Sembcorp Marine had filed an arbitration dispute in 2016.
The contracts were also included in a far reached corruption scandal in Brazil. Intermediary agents working for the shipbuilders were charged in a bribery and corruption scandal regarding the awarding of contracts from Petrobras. It is unknown whether the newly announced investigation is related to this matter.
In December 2022, before the completion of the merger of the shipbuilding assets of Keppel with Sembcorp Marine, Keppel Offshore & Marine, and the Brazilian Attorney-General and Comptroller General reached an agreement for the resolution of the case dating back to 2016 and corrupt payments made by a former agent. KOM in 2017 agreed to pay a combined total penalty of more than $422 million to resolve charges with authorities in the United States, Brazil, and Singapore, and in 2022 agreed to $65 million in fines with $53 million credited under the 2017 agreement.
Sembcorp Marine completed the acquisition of Keppel’s offshore marine operations at the end of February 2023 in a deal that valued the assets f $3.3 billion. Sembcorp Marine is reviewing the operations to develop a long-term plan for the integration focusing on the offshore sector.
If we plant enough trees, we could offset emissions in London and Berlin combined — and then some
Updated: 21/03/2023 By Kristjan Lepik and Lisett Luik, Co-Founders of Arbonics Geology professor Floripe Cordoba leans against a tree during her morning walk in her protected forest on the outskirts of San Jose, February 2023 - Copyright AP Photo/Euronews
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
With the latest IPCC warnings on climate change now ringing around the world, no one should be in any doubt of the urgency of tackling global warming.
The good news is that nature provides everything we need to turn the tide on climate change. However, unlocking the power and potential of nature is easier said than done.
For years now, we have understood that nations across Europe should be planting millions of trees every year to tackle climate change and replenish carbon sinks. We can not achieve net zero emissions by 2050 without forest cover.
What is less well understood by policymakers and landowners is the huge value that land that could be used for planting trees could hold.
Landowners across the world are sitting on a wealth of resources that can benefit both the planet and their bottom line. Many just don’t realise it.
Up to 15 million Europeans could benefit from trees planted across the continent
Ahead of International Day of Forests, Arbonics set out to put a value on the land that is available for planting right now.
Arbonics used a combination of proprietary data and data from Eurostat to calculate the extent of land available in Europe and found that there are more than 14 million hectares of land across Europe — equivalent to the whole of Portugal and The Netherlands.
That’s the equivalent of balancing the emissions of everyone living in London and Berlin combined — with some to spare.
A hydrogen train drives through the forests of the Taurus region near Frankfurt, March 2023
AP Photo/Michael Probst
If the entire 14 million hectares were converted to forests, it would have the potential to sequester over 90 million tonnes of CO2 per year on average.
Considering the yearly CO2 footprint of an average European is around 6.19 tonnes, these new forests alone could balance out the emissions of up to 15 million Europeans every year.
That’s the equivalent of balancing the emissions of everyone living in London and Berlin combined — with some to spare.
Adding billions of euros to the economy
Even if only the land that has been abandoned or is too poor-quality for agriculture — estimated to be in the region of 1.1 million hectares — was afforested, it would still capture as much as 9.3 million tonnes of CO2 per year and balance the emissions of 1.5 million people, or the population of Munich.
What’s more, afforesting the 14 million hectares of land across Europe has the potential to add £2 billion (€2.2bn) to the European economy through the use of carbon credits given to landowners across the continent.
Further afield, the US has up to 60 million hectares of land across the country that is suitable for afforestation and reforestation.
Transforming that land with trees could capture 535 million tonnes of CO2 every year, or an equivalent to removing 116 million cars from the road.
A sign reading "climate crisis" sits on a resident's burned property in Gallinas, New Mexico, August 2022
AP Photo/Brittany Peterson
Transforming that land with trees could capture 535 million tonnes of CO2 every year, or an equivalent to removing 116 million cars from the road.
Afforestation is distinct from reforestation because it refers to planting new forests in areas that were not forested within the last several decades.
By comparison, reforestation involves planting in areas where forests have been cut or otherwise destroyed. EU framework can be improved on instead of dismissing it
This is significant because when it comes to the Voluntary Carbon Market, landowners can’t earn certified carbon credits for the trees planted following a harvest.
The carbon credit market is evolving rapidly, and some people have argued that the whole market is flawed and should be scrapped entirely.
However, while flawed, it is the only framework we currently have to drive down the gap between feasible emissions reductions and the CO2 levels we want to maintain. Hence, rather than dismissing it, we should be working to improve it.
If we want farmers and landowners to plant trees that are great for biodiversity and carbon sinks, we have to incentivise them.
By bridging the gap between the voluntary carbon market and the analogue forest and landowners across Europe, we can help landowners understand the store of value in their land — and persuade them to release it for tree planting.
If we want farmers and landowners to plant trees that are great for biodiversity and carbon sinks, we have to incentivise them.
Opening the eyes of landowners and policymakers to the huge value intrinsic in planting the land with trees is just the first stage of a decades-long, multi-generational investment to offset the impact of global warming.
And on International Day of Forest, we have to wake up to the fact that there’s no time to lose.
_Kristjan Lepik and Lisett Luik are the co-founders of Arbonics, an Estonia-based climate tech startup. _
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Countries’ reporting fails to tell full story of mercury pollution
Staff Writer | March 26, 2023 | Small-scale gold mining in Madagascar. (Reference image by Global Environment Facility, Flickr.)
A recent study of baseline mercury emission estimates by artisanal gold mining reported by 25 countries—many in developing African, South American and Asian nations—found that these estimates rarely provide enough information to tell whether shifts in the rate from one year to the next were the result of actual change or data uncertainty.
Key variables—like how the country determines the amount of its gold production—can result in vastly different baseline estimates. Yet, countries often don’t report this range of possible estimates.
According to the study, about 15 million artisanal and small-scale gold miners around the world risk their lives every day facing hazardous working conditions that include constant exposure to mercury—a potent neurotoxin.
Mercury vapours cause debilitating effects on the nervous, digestive and immune systems, lungs and kidneys, and may be fatal.
The hazardous gold mining process that employs mercury also accounts for roughly 40% of all man-made mercury emissions, making it the largest source of this type of pollution, UN data show.
“To make effective and impactful mercury interventions and policies, you must first make sure you have the baseline emission estimate right,” Kathleen M. Smits, co-author of the new study analyzing the issue, said in a media statement. “Providing more transparency in their reporting would help with that.”
Smits, who works at the Southern Methodist University, joined civil engineers from the University of Texas at Arlington and the US Air Force Academy for this research, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Science and Policy. Deficient data
The group analyzed 22 countries’ national action plans (NAP), which contained their annual baseline estimates assembled under the Minamata Convention and posted on the organization’s website. The team also looked at three additional countries with pertinent information posted to national government or non-governmental websites.
Launched in 2017, the Minamata Convention aims to restrict and limit the trading of mercury. Specifically, the Convention requires its 137 signatories to stop all trade in metallic Hg, restrict the opening of new primary Hg mines, stop domestic Hg production by 2032, and ban the production and trade of Hg-added products, such as thermometers and Hg-vapor lamps, by 2020.
Baseline mercury emission estimates seek to determine how many kilograms of mercury pollution are injected into the atmosphere each year from the practice of artisanal gold mining. To do that, countries calculate how much gold was found by miners—and therefore an approximation of how much mercury was used to get it.
The researchers explained that countries primarily collect that information using interviews with miners, gold and mercury traders and other key players in the gold mining business; ratios that calculate the mercury to gold ratio; previous research, and field visits to known mining locations
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Map of countries with published NAPs on Minamata Convention’s official website (red), national government websites (blue), and NGO (Non-Governmental Organization) websites (green). (Image from Environmental Science & Policy.)
But there are several problems with the way those estimates are currently calculated.
One of the main issues is the fact that there isn’t enough data on gold production estimates. Fifteen countries, like the Central African Republic and Madagascar, only provide one source for the calculation of the gold production rate. Yet, as Zimbabwe demonstrates, different data sources can provide vastly different values.
In a separate study, Zimbabwe reported that extraction, processing and miners’ income information resulted in gold production estimates varying between 11% and 55% using 2012 mining data and 9% to 35% using 2018 mining data. The African country’s goal for reduced mercury emissions is a smaller percentage than the range of uncertainty the study found for gold production.
“Countries aren’t unified in how they select important metrics. The mercury to gold ratio (Hg:Au) is used to estimate the amount of mercury used to produce a given amount of gold,” the researchers noted. “A different ratio can result in different reasonable estimates for how much mercury was emitted.”
In the study, five different ways were listed as a ratio for Hg:Au, and a few countries cited more than one in their national action plan. Similarly, different countries used different techniques to come up with the national estimate of mercury emitted, some based on a small sample of mines and some without verifying the data with other sources.
Smits emphasized that countries must do a better job of accounting for these variables if they want to draft more meaningful mercury reduction targets in their national action plans.
“If you just take a look at the baseline mercury emission estimate process, it is clear that the NAP program will not achieve its goal of reducing mercury emissions if they continue with the current approach,” she said.
Panamanian government launched a public consultation process related to the contract it signed with First Quantum Minerals
Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | March 26, 2023 | Cobre Panama operation. (Image by First Quantum Minerals).
The Panamanian government launched a 30-day non-binding public consultation process related to the contract it signed with First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM), the operator of the Cobre Panama mine.
Following a year of bitter negotiations, which included an order for Cobre Panama to cease operations and the launching of international arbitration mechanisms, the new contract was finally agreed upon on March 8, 2023. The deal guarantees a minimum annual income of $375 million for the Central American country, sets royalty payments between 12% and 16% (up from the current 2%) depending on gross margins, limits the Canadian firm’s tax credits to a maximum of $35 million per year from a previous request of $1.2 billion, involves the payment of previously exempt taxes, among other considerations.
Once the public consultation process is done, the contract will be submitted to the Ministers’ Council and then it will be taken for review and endorsement by the Comptroller General. Next, the document will be presented before Parliament for its approval, after which it can be enacted by the Executive.
“Anyone interested in participating and knowing the specific terms of the contract may send their comments through the mailbox on the consultation page available on the Ministry of Commerce and Industries website,” the government said in a media statement. “The deadline to submit comments is April 22, 2023.”
The webpage presents a copy of the contract, a summary of the contract terms, comparative tables on the economic terms of the contract, and juxtapositions between the draft contract and the contract entered into between Panama and Minera Petaquilla, S.A., (now Minera Panamá, S.A.) and approved by Law 9 of February 26, 1997.
Data from Deutsche Bank show that Cobre Panama supports over 5,000 direct and 40,000 indirect jobs. Its operation also represents 50% of First Quantum’s global production and 3.5% of the Panamanian GDP.
LME nickel finally returns to regular trading hours after crisis
Trading in London Metal Exchange nickel contracts resumed Asian-hours trading on Monday, marking a crucial step in efforts to repair the market after last year’s unprecedented turmoil.
The metal opened for business at 1 a.m. London time, more than a year after the LME suspended trading and canceled billions of dollars worth of deals in response to a runaway short squeeze centered around top producer Tsingshan Holding Group Co. Prices surged 250% in a little over 24 hours in early March 2022, with the sharpest spike taking place during the Asian day. The market reopened a week later, but only from 8 a.m. in London.
The LME had originally planned to resume Asian trading a week ago, but delayed the restart due to the risk of volatility after its discovery that a small number of bagged cargoes in its warehouse network contained stones instead of nickel. The LME said on Thursday that no further issues were identified during a global audit of nickel stored elsewhere in its warehousing network.
The LME is hoping that the expanded hours will boost trading volumes, by making it easier to arbitrage between London and Shanghai contracts. Activity in the nickel market has remained well below pre-crisis levels, and the lack of liquidity has contributed to occasional wild price swings.
Prices fell 0.2% on Monday to $23,420 a ton by 8:55 a.m. Shanghai time. Nickel is the worst-performing contract on the LME so far this year, with a decline of more than 21%.
Buyers and sellers of real-world metal use the LME contract as a pricing benchmark, and also take positions on the exchange to hedge, which means the wider industry relies on the LME market functioning properly.
The nickel contract also faces a more fundamental challenge, as the refined form of metal that’s traded on the exchange accounts for a small and shrinking percentage of the world’s total nickel production. As a result, the links between LME pricing and the material actually being bought and sold to make stainless steel or electric-vehicle batteries have become increasingly strained.
However, Tsingshan — which produces vast amounts of semi-refined nickel — is now building a plant in Indonesia to make finished metal that could be delivered on the LME, which could help it avoid getting caught out in future squeezes. If the refined nickel produced by Tsingshan and other Chinese companies gets listed for delivery on the LME, it could also help to revive trading in the struggling nickel market.
In the run-up to the Asian-day reopening, some traders expressed doubts about whether it would really deliver a significant boost to volumes, as trading in the rival Shanghai nickel market has been hammered since the crisis too. The two markets have also become increasingly disconnected over the past year.
The LME has made a number of changes to its rules since the crisis last March, including imposing daily price limits.
