ONTARIO

First Nations leaders in Treaty 9 say their message is clear — no development without us as partners

Story by Alex Brockman • CBC

First Nations leaders in northern Ontario are ramping up political pressure on the provincial and federal governments, warning Wednesday that the only way mining projects can proceed in the mineral-rich Ring of Fire is with their participation as full partners.

Chiefs from 10 Treaty 9 communities announced at Queen's Park that they are launching a lawsuit to fundamentally change the way resource and land management decisions are made in the region.

Though the lawsuit deals with language and the understanding of a treaty signed in the early 1900s, the lawyer for the First Nations, Kate Kempton, says the case has major implications for land decisions happening in the Ring of Fire right now.

The plaintiffs argue they never gave up their rights to manage the lands and say there needs to be a co-jurisdiction regime where the province and Ottawa cannot move forward on land development without their approval.

'We do this together or we don't do it'

The lawsuit is seeking $95 billion in damages for Treaty 9 First Nations and injunctions to prevent the two levels of government from regulating or enforcing regulations in the treaty lands without the consent of the plaintiffs. If there are disputes, they say, it should go to an independent third party, similar to other international treaties.

"We hear so much about building mines and roads, but not without our community's permission. There has been zero consultation on these projects," said Mark Bell, a band councillor from Aroland First Nation.

"Our community is not against development, we are not against industry. We manage forests, we have mines ... we've been able to do that by giving our permission, working with industry, with other communities around us," Bell said. "Now we're at the point where we say, 'We sit with the government — we do this together or we don't do it."

The Ring of Fire is a crescent-shaped deposit of minerals in Treaty 9 territory, nestled within the James Bay lowlands of northern Ontario. It is the traditional territory of more than a dozen First Nations. Some, like Marten Falls and Webequie, have been vocal proponents of its development, while others have voiced opposition. Several have not made their positions public.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit announced Wednesday claim they never agreed to cede, release, surrender or yield up their jurisdiction to govern and care for the lands, as it says in the written treaty, which was first entered into in 1905.

This case comes as Ontario and Canada have announced several major developments in its critical minerals strategy and electric vehicle (EV) industry, including a plant in southern Ontario that will receive up to $13 billion in subsidies.

The Ring of Fire is expected to be a key supplier of the raw minerals in Ontario's effort to capitalize on the growing demand for minerals crucial to new technologies, according to Ontario's critical minerals strategy that was released last year.

"Treaty 9 First Nations agreed to share with the Crown. We retained jurisdiction." said Chief Solomon Atlookan of Eabametoong First Nation. "Despite the posturing of the current government, all the bulldozer claims, it cannot move forward without our consent."

Kempton, head representative for the claimants, cautioned this case could lead to court injunctions that could tie up development plans through the courts if governments don't make changes to how they negotiate and consult with affected First Nations.

She said she hoped mining companies wanting to work in the region would lobby the governments for the First Nations to make the co-jurisdiction plan happen.

"Tell them that you need them to sit down and work this out in an equal co-jurisdiction regime," Kempton said. "Until that happens, there will be a huge amount of uncertainty for those companies. The implication is they are not going to be able to go ahead without full, informed consent."

CBC News has reached out to both Ontario Indigenous Affairs Minister Greg Rickford and federal Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Marc Miller for comment.

Rickford issued a statement saying the Ontario government "recognizes that we have a unique opportunity to work alongside First Nations to enhance economic, health and social outcomes," and that the government will "continue to prioritize consensus building regarding northern development." He said he would not comment further since the lawsuit is before the courts.

A spokesperson for Miller said they could not provide CBC News with an interview on the lawsuit, though his office issued a statement Wednesday afternoon, saying:

"Our government remains steadfast in its commitment to work alongside First Nations, to advance their vision for self-determination. Canada always prefers resolving litigation outside the courts, whenever possible. However, we respect the Treaty 9 First Nations' decision to take Canada to court, as they see fit. Because this litigation is active, it would not be appropriate to comment further."


Mark Bell, third from left, a band councillor from Aroland First Nation in northwestern Ontario, was among those speaking at a news conference at Queen's Park in Toronto on Wednesday. Bell alongside the chiefs of 9 other First Nations are plaintiffs in a lawsuit against the Ontario and federal governments regarding land development in Treaty 9 territory.

© Heather Waldron/CBC

This is the second time in the past month that First Nations leaders have gone to Queen's Park to take their case directly to lawmakers, as they have continued to state their position on the issue, which has remained the same for years.

In March, leaders from five First Nations in northwestern Ontario disrupted a session of the Ontario Legislature, with Neskantaga Chief Christopher Moonias shouting from the gallery that there should be no development without First Nations' free, prior and informed consent.

"We have projects moving forward where we get an email here, an email there — that's not consultation," said Bell. "Our people need to be able to make decisions, they need to be able to make informed decisions."

CANADA

As Pride flags are once again targeted, 2SLGBTQ advocates say it's as important as ever to fly them

LGBTQ RIGHTS ARE HUMAN RIGHTS

Story by Nick Logan • CBC -Thursday

After the southwestern Ontario township of Norwich made a controversial decision last month to no longer fly the Progress Pride flag on municipal property, it didn't take long after for people to start emailing Kim Huffman, a councillor in neighbouring Norfolk county, calling for a similar move.

It may have only been a small number of messages, but she's making it clear she has no intention of following Norwich's lead.

"Don't bother wasting your time asking me to put any kind of motion forward or to have any kind of discussion regarding the Pride flag in Norfolk County," she told CBC News. In her first term, Huffman said, she was the councillor responsible for getting the county to raise the Pride flag at its administrative building in the first place.

Huffman says she wants her community and others, especially in rural areas, to show they are inclusive — especially for younger people who may not see the same degree of visibility and allyship that exists in large cities for two-spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (2SLGBTQ) people.

Norwich isn't alone when it comes to controversies surrounding Pride flags. Other communities, such as the district of Hope, B.C., have made similar decisions to not fly the Pride flag, and a recent meeting of an Ontario Catholic school board got so heated, amid a debate of Pride flags at schools, the police had to be called.

There have also been reports across Canada of 2SLGBTQ and transgender flags being stolen, damaged and even burned.

Much of this has unfolded as divisive, sometimes hateful, debates about transgender rights, gender-affirming care and education about 2SLGBTQ issues flare up on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border.

Huffman said she believes that's all the more reason to fly the Pride flag this year and every year.

Pride in a community

Huffman said she gets goosebumps when she see a Pride flag flying in her county because of the sense of community it represents to her.

That was a sentiment similar to what Alex Wilson says she experienced when she saw a Pride flag raised in her northern Manitoba First Nation community three years ago — something she said was "a long time coming."

It was the traditional rainbow flag with the emblem of the Opaskwayak Cree Nation.

Raising a Pride flag is "a recognition that not only do we exist, but we have the right to exist," said Wilson, a professor in the College of Education at the University of Saskatchewan, where she teaches a course called Queering Our Classrooms and Communities, among others, and she is the co-chair of the organization 2Spirit Manitoba.

After years of progress, she said she's surprised over the new debate over Pride flags, and LGBTQ rights and visibility, when it seems like something more likely to have been a controversial topic 35 years ago.

"[But] whenever there's some kind of steps made forward in human rights, there's a backlash from certain communities. And this time, the backlash is particularly focused on trans people and the queer community in general," she said.

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Pushing back against progress

Progress on 2SLGBTQ rights hasn't always been linear, said Robin Metcalfe, a long-time 2SLGBTQ rights activist based in Sheet Harbour, N.S., where he is also involved in organizing the seaside community's Pride activities.

"In recent years, trans people in particular have been in the front line of fighting for their rights, and it's been a very hard fight," Metcalfe said.

In the U.S. there have been more than 500 bills brought forward so far in 2023, dozens of which have already passed, that target gender-affirming care, bathroom use, the participation of transgender women and girls in sports, the use of preferred pronouns, drag performances and education about gender identity and sexuality.

That has contributed to anti-2SLGBTQ discourse throughout the U.S. but also in Canada because "we're part of the same larger cultural zone," said Metcalfe.

"Right-wing forces and very homophobic and sexist and racist forces are feeling more empowered to speak right now and more entitled and probably feeling somewhat threatened because the order [of privilege] is changing," he said.

He says he believes most people are against forms of hate, such as homophobia, racism, and sexism, and he's hopeful those people will continue to unite behind the 2SLGBTQ community as it faces efforts to push back against progress.

The flap over flags

Any flag is a symbol that can be "inspiring to one group [but] will be reviled by another," said James Ferrigan, the treasurer of the North American Vexillological Association, an organization for flag experts and enthusiasts.

With Pride flags, some will see it as celebrating diversity and inclusion, he said, while others will view it as "a political symbol which they perhaps find threatening."

He has witnessed the evolution of the Pride flag, from its humble beginnings to becoming an internationally recognized symbol — he worked at the Paramount flag shop in San Francisco alongside activist and artist Gilbert Baker, who created the original rainbow flag in 1978.


Gilbert Baker, seen posing at New York's Museum of Modern Art on Jan. 7, 2016, is the artist and civil rights activist who designed the rainbow flag in 1978, which became a prominent symbol to the 2SLGBTQ community around the world. Baker passed away in March 2017.© Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The flag has evolved and been recreated in the 45 years since, most notably with the Progress Pride flag created in 2018 by artist Daniel Quasar.

It's a variation on the traditional six-colour rainbow flag that incorporates chevrons of pink, light blue and white to represent transgender and non-binary people and black and brown chevrons for people of colour.

It has become widely used by governments — including the Canadian government — businesses and communities around the world, and it was the version of the Pride flag at the heart of the situation in Norwich.

Exclusion not a path to equality

In the case of Norwich, the township's council decided in a 3-2 vote, with the mayor tipping the balance, to prohibit all non-civic flags from flying on municipal property, even though the Pride flag was the focus of the decision.

The logic presented by the councillor who brought the issue forward was that municipal, provincial and Canada flags unite everyone without singling out any one group.

"To open the door to flying flags that represent any particular group, organization, or ideology, will only divide rather than unite," Coun. John Scholten said at the April 25 council meeting.

Neither Wilson nor Metcalfe agree with that logic

"Putting up the flag is in fact saying you want peace and harmony," Metcalfe said, because it signals the community is accepting of all of its diverse citizens.



Norwich council saw a large turnout of community members who spoke both in favour of and against banning Progress Pride flags on township property at the April 25 meeting when the council voted against flying all non-civic flags.© Isha Bhargava/CBC

Wilson called it a "cop out," saying outlawing everything that's different isn't a way to create equality. She explained not everyone is united under the Canadian flag either.

"We know that with Indigenous people, we know that with certain newcomer groups, we know that with queer people," Wilson said.

Raising a Pride flag, she said, is both an opportunity for people to learn about and acknowledge the history of marginalized groups, as well as their current challenges, and to help rectify some of the past.

AUSTRALIA

Councils call off drag storytime and LGBTQ+ events in Victoria after far-right threats

LGBTQ RIGHTS ARE HUMAN RIGHTS

Story by Cait Kelly • Yesterday 

Photograph: Daniel Pockett/EPA© Provided by The Guardian

Several councils across Victoria have quietly cancelled drag queen storytime and LGBTQ+ events after threats from far-right groups.

Last week Monash council cancelled a drag storytime event scheduled for International Day against Homophobia, Biphobia, and Transphobia (IDAHOBIT) after angry protesters derailed a council meeting.

Several other local government areas have quietly followed suit, calling off family-friendly queer events planned for IDAHOBIT on 17 May.

Drag performer Dean Arcuri has had four events cancelled, including a rainbow storytime singalong at Hawthorn Library, which is run by Boroondara council.

Related: Victorian government urged to act as more drag events cancelled in wake of threats from far-right

“As soon as the information came out about Monash, every one of the four councils got in touch,” said Arcuri, who performs as Frock Hudson.

“They said they felt really bad about it [but said] ‘we just don’t feel like we can create the safe environment for people’.”

Boroondara council did not respond to questions before publication, but the council’s website encouraged people to go to other IDAHOBIT events, including a high tea.

“The Rainbow Storytime event with Frock Hudson advertised in the May Bulletin has been cancelled,” a note on the website said.

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The other three events were scheduled in regional councils. Arcuri said he wanted to keep the names of the other councils private for fear of backlash.

“I don’t want to create a total narrative of ‘damn you, you cancelled’, because I don’t think that’s OK either,” he said. “Everyone’s doing the best they can in this scenario.”

At least nine queer events, mostly drag storytime, have been cancelled in the past six months in Melbourne due to security threats from far-right fringe groups.

A fifth event Arcuri was booked to appear at – a storytime at Eltham Library in Nillumbik shire – is currently being targeted by fascists, who have been pushing for the event to be shut down.

In response to the cancellations, community members have set up the Rainbow Community Angels (RCA), a group promising to disrupt anti-queer protesters by wearing huge angel wings to block them out.

Felicity Marlowe, manager of Rainbow Families Victoria and co-founder of RCA, said the group hoped they could prevent events from getting cancelled and help lift the queer community.

“No one wants to say people should work when they feel threatened, or that people should perform when there have been threats made against their lives or their livelihood,” Marlowe said.

“But it’s just the visual of the situation – cancelling sends a really detrimental message, particularly to young queers and trans young people.”

An online RCA meeting on Thursday, where the group discussed training and wing-making sessions, was disrupted by two neo-Nazis who wrote homophobic abuse and “Heil Hitler” in the comments section of the Zoom chat.

Related: ‘They just go to Thailand’: the long and costly wait for gender-affirming surgery in Australia

At the same meeting, Nillumbik mayor Ben Ramcharan said he was determined for the storytime at Eltham Library event to go ahead but it might have to be moved online because of threats.

It is understood the Yarra Plenty Regional Library, which runs the Eltham Library, has had to ring Victoria police twice in the past week because they have been inundated with hateful emails and phone calls.

Marlowe promised RCA would hold an event at Eltham Library on 17 May even if the storytime is moved to Zoom, to show the community they will not be censored.

LGBTQ RIGHTS ARE HUMAN RIGHTS

Oklahoma governor wages war on PBS station after claiming it is indoctrinating children with LGBTQ content

Story by Oliver Darcy • CNN - Yesterday 

America’s most-watched PBS station is on the verge of going dark.

The Republican governor of Oklahoma, Kevin Stitt, recently vetoed a bill that would have renewed the license and provided millions in funding for the Oklahoma Educational Television Authority, the statewide PBS network that reaches more than 650,000 viewers a week. Stitt took issue with what he alleged was LGBTQ-inclusive programming on the station, claiming to Fox News that it amounted to the “indoctrination and over-sexualization of our children.”

“It doesn’t line up with Oklahoma values,” Stitt told the right-wing network this week in an interview about the decision.

The move from Stitt to attack the home of family friendly programs such as “Sesame Street,” “Clifford the Big Red Dog,” and “Mister Rogers” is representative of a new and quickly expanding front in the culture wars. Republicans, most prominently Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, have over the last year laced into Disney, claiming the intentionally inoffensive brand is really a “creepy” company engaged in “grooming” children with radical gender ideology. That strain of attack is now spreading to PBS.

A spokesperson for the public broadcaster defended its programming, saying it provides “curriculum-based content that for generations has educated and inspired children in Oklahoma and across the country.”

“The threat to funding puts Oklahoma families at risk of losing access to the local free content they trust to help kids reach their full potential. The fundamental goal of PBS KIDS remains supporting children as they learn and grow through programming they have come to know and love. Now is not the time to take that away from any child,” the spokesperson said.

While rhetoric from politicians can often be empty and merely aimed at exciting supporters, the anti-LGBTQ rhetoric from the GOP is leading in recent months to real actionable consequences. Cheered on by the most powerful entities in right-wing media, politicians like Stitt and DeSantis are moving to use the power of the state to punish organizations for their inclusivity.

While the Oklahoma station receives $6.3 million in funding from donors and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, $2.9 million comes from the state government. If Stitt’s veto is not overridden by the state legislature, it would send the station into uncharted territory and could prompt painful decisions to be made.

Not only is OETA the home of educational children’s programming, but it also plays an important civic role. It produces and airs the “Oklahoma News Report,” the only state news program that reaches every county in Oklahoma. And, crucially, it is the broadcast network that state authorities rely on to disseminate emergency alerts to the public, including for severe weather, a frequent and dangerous occurrence in the Tornado Alley state. In just the last year alone, the network has transmitted more than 200 emergency alerts.

State Sen. Carri Hicks, a Democrat who represents Oklahoma City, blasted Stitt’s decision, saying she is “deeply disappointed that the governor has decided to politicize an institution that is so meaningful to generations of Oklahomans.”

“I grew up in a rural community where we did not have access to cable or satellite television, but I did have high-quality educational content on PBS,” Hicks said in a statement. “Because of OETA, I spent my afternoons after school practicing math and reading. Our governor wants to rob our children of that programming and opportunity to learn just so that he can score some political points. It is truly a shame and a disservice to the people of Oklahoma.”

Bob Spinks, a board member and past president of the Friends of OETA non-profit, also spoke out against the governor’s move.

“Since we are Oklahoma’s only statewide television broadcasting system, serving all citizens in the 77 counties in our state, the loss of OETA will leave an enormous gap in providing educational programming, public safety support, and civic engagement for the hundreds of thousands who depend on us weekly,” Spinks told CNN.

“I am not sure of how it will develop if the veto isn’t overridden,” Spinks candidly said. “Clearly, there could be an effect on emergency alert capability.”

“But since we’ve never faced this before,” Spinks added, “we just don’t know.”

- CNN’s Jon Passantino contributed to this report

Energized opposition and poor economy could spell defeat for Turkey's long-time leader

Story by Briar Stewart •  CBC-Yesterday 

At the front of an opposition rally in the Turkish industrial city of Bursa on May 11, a group of women lined up behind metal fencing waving flags and chanting about the cost of potatoes and onions.

"Erdogan's got to go!" they shouted.

The rally, which attracted thousands of people, was held just days before Turkey votes in what is being called a pivotal election that could end Recep Tayyip's Erdogan's 20 years in power and usher in a new political era.

The rising cost of an onion, a kitchen staple, has become a symbol of Turkey's rampant inflation and a fixture in political advertisements for opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu.

A 74-year-old former civil servant, Kiliçdaroğlu is leading a six-party alliance that has united in an effort to defeat Erdogan in the presidential election, which takes place May 14. (A parliamentary vote to elect the 600 deputies for Turkey's Grand National Assembly will take place at the same time.)


Eighteen-year-old Serif Cetinkaya, centre, is voting for the first time in Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. He was in the front row of a rally for Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.© Briar Stewart/CBC

"We need to change our country — right now, it is very bad," said Serif Cetinkaya, 18, one of the estimated five million young people who will be voting for the first time in the presidential election.

"It will be a historical election for Turkish citizens," said Seren Sevin Korkmaz, executive director of the Istanbul Political Research Institute. "It's not just electing a presidential candidate or political party, but it is a selection for Turkey's future."

A tight race

The latest polls sugges Kiliçdaroğlu has a narrow lead over Erdogan, which may have widened after another opposition candidate with sparse support dropped out of the race this week.

There remains a real possibility that neither presidential candidate will get over the 50 per cent threshold needed for victory, thereby forcing a second round of voting, which would take place on May 28.

Turkish society is polarized between the two political camps and that's played out under a heavy police presence at massive, high-energy rallies held daily throughout the political campaign.

Erdogan, 69, is a populist with fiercely loyal supporters, but he and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing criticism at home and abroad.



A woman working on Recep Tayyip Erdogan's re-election campaign hands out pamphlets in Istanbul, where the president is holding his final political rallies of the campaign.© Briar Stewart/CBC

He is accused of mismanaging the economy and driving up inflation, while eroding the country's institutions by squeezing the central bank and exerting control over a wide swath of the media.

The election also comes three months after a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey killed 50,000 people and displaced more than three million. In the wake of the disaster, Erdogan's government was criticized for not sending out search teams fast enough.

Korkmaz says that after Erdogan was first elected in 2003, he was praised for the country's economic growth and an infrastructure boom. He also strengthened international relations, mainly with the European Union, and solidified Turkey's position as a regional power at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

In 2005, Erdogan started accession talks with the EU, but as the years progressed, they came to a standstill, due to what EU officials call a "negative trend" in Turkey when it comes to the rule of law and fundamental rights. The European Commission accused the country of "democratic backsliding."

Korkmaz says in recent years, Erdogan has turned the country into an autocracy, particularly after an attempted coup in 2016 that left more than 250 people dead. There has been a crackdown on dissent — opposition politicians and activists have faced arrest and jail time, and supposedly independent institutions like the judiciary have been weakened in an effort to prop up Erdogan's power.



Seren Sevin Korkmaz, the executive director of an Istanbul-based think-tank, frames Turkey's presidential election as a choice between democracy and autocracy.

© Briar Stewart/CBC

In 2017, Turkey's population narrowly approved a transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, the result of a referendum in which European observers believe millions of votes may have been manipulated.

The following year, Erdogan was re-elected and sworn in as president.

Centralizing power was an initial political advantage for Erdogan, but Korkmaz says it has since become a weakness, because people blame Erdogan directly for the "fragile economy and unbalanced foreign policy."

Rampant inflation

Erdogan, who has promised that interest rates will keep dropping as long as he is in power, has put pressure on the central bank to adopt what many economists call an unorthodox policy to fight soaring inflation. Between 2019 and 2021, Erdogan's government sacked three central bank governors, which hurt Turkey's financial credibility and weakened its currency, the lira. Inflation peaked last fall at 85 per cent.

Official inflation now stands at 44 per cent. As a point of comparison, in the U.K. it is just over 10 per cent.

At a small market in Bursa on Thursday, shoppers surveyed fruits and vegetables that lined wooden tables — and the price tags attached. A few who spoke to CBC News said they can no longer afford to buy the usual groceries, and that the cost of living overall has jumped dramatically.


Turkey's economic crisis is one of the major factors for voters. The country has been grappling with rampant inflation.© Briar Stewart/CBC

"[The government] does not think about us. They're thinking about filling their [bank accounts]," said Aytekin Sasmaz. He showed CBC a plastic bag of onions, which he said would have previously cost the equivalent of 25¢ Cdn, and now costs around $2.50.

"I think that on May 14, the system and the government will change," Sasmaz said.

The man who could defeat Erdogan

At a political rally in this city of three million later that afternoon, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu made an outline of a heart with his hands, mirroring many in the crowd who were making the same symbol.

"Spring will come to Turkey," he shouted into a microphone. "We are going to change a totalitarian regime through democracy."



Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition alliance, gestures during a rally in Bursa, Turkey, on May 11.

© Murad Sezer/Reuters

Among other things, Kiliçdaroğlu promised that he would eliminate the polarization in this country of 85 million, and that people would live freely and "tweet without fear."

His campaign has revolved around the idea of rebuilding democracy, but he has also pledged to send the more than three million Syrian refugees staying in Turkey back home, adding they are free to return as "tourists."

In an interview with Reuters, Kiliçdaroğlu said he wanted to strike a balance when it comes to foreign relations with Russia, which he has accused of meddling in Turkey's election. Moscow has denied this.

Kiliçdaroğlu said unlike Erdogan's government, he would actively consult with the country's foreign ministry and fully support the expansion of NATO. Turkey has stalled Sweden's NATO bid as it tries to pressure the Nordic country to extradite alleged militants that Turkey suspects of being linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by the EU, U.S. and U.K.

While Turkey's close relations with Russia have sparked some friction among the NATO alliance, Erdogan has also been praised by the UN for helping broker a deal to facilitate grain shipments out of Ukraine's Black Sea ports amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

The president's base

Many of Erdogan's supporters view him as irreplaceable. At a massive, frenetic rally in Istanbul on Friday, people crowded the streets because there wasn't enough room for the president's thousands of fans near the mosque where the event was taking place.

"We love him so much," said Dilara Emec, 20. She and her boyfriend, Omer Furkan, admit the economy is bad, but are adamant it's not a reason to vote Erdogan out.

"You can find bread, you can find onions or potatoes, but you can't find a country like this, a leader like him," said Furkan.



Omer Furkan, 22, and Dilara Emec, 20, stand outside an Erdogan rally on May 12. The couple told CBC News they can't imagine the current president being defeated, but if he is, they plan to keep supporting him

.© Corinne Seminoff/CBC

Erdogan attended the rally after helping to open a newly built mosque. Throughout the campaign, he has defended his economic policies while railing against LGBTQ people and an opposition he says sides with terrorists. Erdogan insists he is ready to protect the country the way he did after the attempted coup in 2016.

A day earlier, protesters threw stones at the mayor of Istanbul, an opposition candidate who was campaigning in a city that's traditionally been loyal to Erdogan's party.

"We have to get rid of this polarization," said Ertim Orkun, president of the Istanbul-based organization Vote and Beyond. His team has recruited about 65,000 volunteers to monitor roughly 200,000 polling stations in Turkey. Part of their training includes how to diffuse heated arguments.

"We try to prepare [workers] psychologically … 'be the person who's calm, who's cool. Just try to neutralize the room.'"

Orkun expects tension and even anger after the ballots are counted this weekend, but dismisses fears over protests turning violent. He doesn't buy into all the talk about the historic nature of this election.

"Every time we have an election, we keep saying the same thing: 'This is the most important election ever.'"

Turkish opposition accuses Russia of election interference days before vote

Story by Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı in Istanbul • Yesterday

The Guardian

Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters© Provided by The Guardian

Turkey’s leading opposition candidate has accused Russia of election interference days before the country’s most consequential vote in a generation.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s party (CHP), the chief rival to the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, accused Russia of concocting deepfake videos and false material, seemingly a reference to an allegedly fake sex tape of candidate Muharrem İnce, released a day before he dropped out of the race.

“If you want the continuation of our friendship after 15 May, get your hands off the Turkish state,” said Kılıçdaroğlu, adding: “We are still in favour of cooperation and friendship.”

Turkish voters will go to the polls on 14 May to cast their ballots for both the president and parliament. Re-electing Erdoğan would provide a mandate for him to further concentrate power around his office, crack down on opponents, and use his position of influence on the world stage to harden his control at home.

Current polling suggests a tight vote in the presidential election, where one candidate must secure more than 51% to win outright, or the race will go to a runoff two weeks later.

Related: The Guardian view on Turkey’s election: an end to Erdoğan’s authoritarianism? | Editorial

Erdoğan, who previously lashed out at the US ambassador Jeff Flake for publicly meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu, has declared that “Turkey will give a message to the west with this election.” His interior minister, Süleyman Soylu, went even further, describing the vote on 14 May as “a political coup attempt by the west”.

The six-party opposition coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned on the promise of reform, and the dismantling of a sprawling system of control that Erdoğan has spent two decades building. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey transformed into a presidential system supported by a vast patronage network loyal to his Justice and Development party (AKP), rebuffing an attempted military coup in 2016 and often branding his opponents enemies of the state. Erdoğan has also increased Turkey’s footprint overseas and reshaped its economy in his image, overseeing vast infrastructure projects and development but also an economic crisis in which the Turkish lira has halved in value in the past year alone.


An image of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the side of a bus in Istanbul in the lead up to Sunday’s election. 

Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

Related video: Turkey election candidate drops out, putting Erdogan at risk (WION)

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“As we get closer to the vote, I feel excited but also responsible for the fate of 85 million people across Turkey,” said Canan Kaftancıoğlu, a leading member of the CHP, currently weathering a ban from politics after a court charged her with insulting Erdoğan. Despite the ban, Kaftancıoğlu has continued to work, aiding Kılıçdaroğlu in his fight for the presidency by overseeing efforts to ensure a fair election.

“I believe this election will set an example, not just for Turkey but for the whole world. For the first time, an authoritarian regime will be taken out by democracy,” she said. “If we succeed, it will set an example for other countries struggling for their own democracies.”

The possibility of a one-round race with potentially a victor as early as Sunday increased slightly after İnce dropped out, leaving only the small margin of votes held by the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan of the Victory party to spoil the chances of either candidate reaching the threshold for a runoff.

In the parliamentary elections, polls also suggest Erdoğan’s coalition could lose its governing majority, but the opposition must win a majority in parliament and the presidency to ensure they achieve their primary aim of returning Turkey to parliamentary democracy.

“We do not trust the supreme election council, but we took every precaution,” Kılıçdaroğlu said during a recent interview, describing how the CHP and their partners in opposition assign poll watchers to every ballot box, and will conduct a parallel count on election day to ensure a fair vote. “Despite it all, we will win,” he said.

For the opposition, their continued survival as well as democracy itself are on the ballot; Erdoğan’s coalition partner, Devlet Bahçeli, recently declared the opposition could receive “life sentences or bullets in their bodies”. The campaign trail has been pockmarked with violence towards opposition figures with a bullet being thrown inside the CHP’s local offices in one town, a day after a group through stones at supporters and the campaign bus of the leading opposition figure and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

“This is the election that determines whether Erdoğan is considered an elected president with autocratic tendencies who then lost and left power, where the story is one of the resilience of Turkish democracy. Or, is it an election in which after everything he’s done, with Osman Kavala[a philanthropist] in prison, with Selahattin Demirtaş [a Kurdish political leader] in prison, with dozens of journalists arrested, where Erdoğan wins again and comes back to do this for another five years,” said Nate Schenkkan of Freedom House.

The vote for president is expected to be close, where even a difference of a few percentage points could affect which candidate can claim the vote was fair and provides a clear mandate or whether it goes to a runoff two weeks later. This outcome is expected to depend in part on Kurdish voters, including the sizeable portion now backing Kılıçdaroğlu after the largely Kurdish leftwing Peoples’ Democratic party opted not to field a presidential candidate, and its jailed leader Demirtaş backed Kılıçdaroğlu.

The result will also hinge heavily on votes cast within the 11 Turkish provinces deeply affected by twin powerful earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people, levelled infrastructure and displaced millions.

The government resisted efforts to allow those registered to vote within the earthquake zone to vote elsewhere, forcing those wishing to cast their ballots to return to areas destroyed by the earthquake on election day.

“This is a big problem, and we honestly have no idea what will happen,” said Nuran Yilmaz, deputy head of the CHP in the coastal town of Antalya whose family in the southernmost province of Hatay was displaced by the earthquake and will be forced to return there to vote. “Our party is working on it, but we will be forced to pay to travel to Hatay. My entire family, my sister and my brother will go to Hatay and pay their own way, just to vote.”

Amid concerns about the fairness of the upcoming vote, Schenkkan said this was distinct from whether the election should be considered free. “I think fairness is not up for debate any more, given Erdoğan’s disproportionate use of state media, his control of mainstream broadcast and print media, the censorship of social media, the imprisonment of Demirtaş, there’s a whole slew of ways in which this election is not fair,” he said.

“But freeness is debatable, for one it’s not really free as the HDP is not really free to compete, there’s imprisonment of its most prominent leaders and many of its members and the overall atmosphere of retribution against that party affects the freedom of choice most voters have. Freedom at the ballot box is governed by the election authority, so the voting could be run freely but they could still change the rules at the end.”

Turkey elections: why Europe is watching closely

Story by By Andrew Gray •REUTERS -  Yesterday

FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a meeting with EU Council President Charles Michel in Brussels© Thomson Reuters

By Andrew Gray

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Turkey's elections on Sunday are a key moment not just for the country itself but also for its European neighbours.

With President Tayyip Erdogan facing his toughest electoral test in two decades, European Union and NATO members are watching to see whether change comes to a country that affects them on issues ranging from security to migration and energy.

Relations between Erdogan and the EU have become highly strained in recent years, as the 27-member bloc cooled on the idea of Ankara becoming a member and condemned crackdowns on human rights, judicial independence and media freedom.

Leading members of NATO, to which Turkey belongs, have expressed alarm at Erdogan's close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and concern that Turkey is being used to circumvent sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

Erdogan's challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has pledged more freedom at home and foreign policies hewing closer to the West.

Whatever the outcome, Turkey's European neighbours will use the election and its aftermath to assess their relationship with Ankara and the degree to which it can be reset.

Here are some key issues that European countries will be watching, according to officials, diplomats and analysts:

ELECTION CONDUCT

EU officials have been careful not to express a preference for a candidate. But they have made clear they will be looking out for vote-rigging, violence or other election interference.

"It is important that the process itself is clean and free," said Sergey Lagodinsky, a German member of the European Parliament who co-chairs a group of EU and Turkish lawmakers.

Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU's diplomatic service, said the bloc expected the vote to be "transparent and inclusive" and in line with democratic standards Turkey has committed to.

A worst-case scenario for both Turkey and the EU would be a contested result - perhaps after a second round - leading the incumbent to launch a crackdown on protests, said Dimitar Bechev, the author of a book on Turkey under Erdogan.

SWEDEN AND NATO

"Five more years of Erdogan means five more years of Turkey being with one weak foot in NATO and one strong foot with Russia," said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Erdogan has vexed other NATO members by buying a Russian S-400 missile defence system and contributing little to NATO's reinforcement of its eastern flank.

An early test of whether the election winner wants to mend NATO ties will be whether he stops blocking Swedish membership. Erdogan has demanded Stockholm extradite Kurdish militants but Swedish courts have blocked some expulsions.

Analysts and diplomats expect Kilicdaroglu would end the block on Sweden joining NATO, prompting Hungary - the only other holdout - to follow suit. That could let Sweden join in time for a NATO summit in Lithuania in July.

Some analysts and diplomats say Erdogan might also lift his objections after the elections but others are unconvinced.

RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

Although Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between Moscow and the West, his political relationship with Putin and Turkey's economic ties to Russia are a source of EU frustration. That will likely continue if Erdogan wins another term.

If Kilicdaroglu triumphs, European officials would likely be content with a gradual shift away from Moscow, recognising that Turkey is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and its economy depends on Russia to a significant extent.

"With Russia, a new government will be treading very carefully," Bechev said.

However, Kilicdaroglu showed this week he was willing to criticise Russia, publicly accusing Moscow of responsibility for fake material on social media ahead of Sunday's ballot.

RULE OF LAW, CYPRUS

If Kilicdaroglu and his coalition wins, the EU will be keen to see if they keep promises to release Erdogan critics from jail, in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings, and generally improve rule-of-law standards.

"You’re going to have a wait-and-see attitude from the EU," said Pierini.

If there is a crackdown on graft, European companies may be ready to make big investments in Turkey once again, perhaps with backing from the EU and its member governments, he said.

Efforts to expand an EU-Turkey customs union to include more goods and grant Turks visa-free EU travel could also be revived.

But neither would be easy - not least because of the divided island of Cyprus. Its internationally recognised government, composed of Greek Cypriots, is an EU member, while the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state is recognised only by Ankara.

"This is of course the big stumbling block in our relations," said European Parliament member Lagodinsky.

However, EU officials see little sign that Kilicdaroglu would change much on Cyprus.

"The big game changer for EU-Turkey relations would be Cyprus. Here the candidates' agenda, however, does not seem fundamentally different," said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Cyprus is one of many factors that make a revival of EU membership negotiations unlikely, officials and analysts say. EU leaders designated Turkey as a candidate to join the bloc in 2004 but the talks ground to a halt years ago.

"There are many other ways to strengthen the relationship, build confidence. There is already a lot of European money that has made its way to Turkey," said a European diplomat. "I don't know anyone in Europe who wants to revive EU membership talks."

(Reporting by Andrew Gray, John Irish and Gabriela Baczynska)

Explainer-What you need to know about Thailand's election

Story by By Chayut Setboonsarng and Martin Petty • REUTERS 

YESTERDAY 

Pheu Thai's supporters attend a campaign event for the upcoming general election in Bangkok© Thomson Reuters

By Chayut Setboonsarng and Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand holds an election on May 14 after nearly a decade of a government led or backed by its royalist military after a coup in 2014.

Below is a rundown of what to expect.

WHAT'S BEING DECIDED?

Roughly 52 million of Thailand's 65 million population are eligible to cast votes for members of a new 500-seat house of representatives for the next four years.

Voters have two ballots, one for a local constituency representative and the other for their preferred party on a national level. There are 400 seats for winning constituency candidates and 100 party seats allocated on a proportional representation basis.

HOW WILL A LEADER BE CHOSEN?

Parties winning more than 25 seats can nominate their prime ministerial candidate, although it is likely parties will strike deals between them to back certain candidates.

Those candidates will be put to a vote, likely in August, of the bicameral legislature comprised of a newly elected 500-seat lower house and a 250-seat Senate comprised of members appointed by the military following its 2014 coup.

To become prime minister, the winning candidate must have the votes of more than half of the combined houses, or 375 members.

Related video: Mahidol University's Punchada on Thai Elections 

(Bloomberg)   Duration 4:40   View on Watch

WHO ARE THE MAIN CONTENDERS?

The election will be the latest bout in a long-running battle between parties backed by a conservative establishment with connections to the military and key institutions, and a progressive, pro-business opposition with a track record of wooing working class voters and winning every election in the past two decades.

Pheu Thai, a party controlled by the billionaire Shinawatra family, has a big lead in opinion polls as it did in previous elections, followed by another opposition party, Move Forward, which is seeking to mobilise youth voters.

They will go up against two parties led by former army chiefs involved in coups, incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of the newly formed United Thai Nation party, and his mentor Prawit Wongsuwan, of the ruling Palang Pracharat party.

Both parties draw backing from the urban middle classes and are regarded as representing the interests of Thailand's nexus of old money aristocrats and military elites who have long influenced politics.

An important contender is Bhumjaithai, a regional heavyweight whose seats could be crucial in determining who forms a government. The party's stature has grown with its successful push to make Thailand Asia's first country to legalise the sale of cannabis.

WHEN WILL THE RESULTS BE KNOWN?

Voting ends at 5 p.m (1000 GMT) local time on Sunday and the election commission says unofficial results should be released that same evening. It aims to certify 95% of the votes or 475 of the 500 seats, within 60 days, or by July 13.

The commission and an alliance of media organisations are expected to provide updates on the vote count in the hours after polling stations close.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT?

It might be weeks, possibly several months, before Thailand gets an idea of what it's next government will look like, depending on the outcome of the election.

An outright majority or even a landslide may not be enough to form a government and alliances with other parties will most likely be required.

Thailand's constitution was re-drafted by the military in 2017 in what many experts say was an attempt to neuter the power of parties that win elections. It prescribed an appointed Senate, of which the majority of members have sided in votes with the ruling, military-backed parties.

(Editing by Kim Coghill)

Thai voters could drive out pro-military party in pivotal vote Sunday

Story by Salimah Shivji •  CBC - TODAY

The cheers from the crowd were irrepressible at a large Pheu Thai Party rally in Chiang Mai in the final days of Thailand's general election campaign, just as polls widely indicate the largest opposition party's candidate for prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is poised to potentially unseat the incumbent former army chief.

It would be a triumphant return for the country's most famous political family, after Paetongtarn's exiled father Thaksin was ousted from power in a coup d'etat in 2006.

His various political parties have won the most seats in every Thai election since 2001, but those wins were either quashed by the military establishment aligned with the monarchy or the parties were dissolved.

But with voting day approaching on Sunday, this election is shaping up to be a once-in-a-generation battle to oust Thailand's pro-military government and bring democratic reforms to a country that's endured nearly a decade of military rule, following another coup in 2014.


Supporters of the Pheu Thai Party wave banners and listen to candidate speeches in Chiang Mai, ahead of the general election on May 14.© Salimah Shivji/CBC

A second, more progressive pro-democratic party, Move Forward, is also surging in the polls, galvanizing young Thai voters with calls for an overhaul of the country's political structure and military dominance, even going so far as to propose a rethink of the sweeping power of Thailand's monarchy, a once-taboo topic.

The Pheu Thai party has been more evasive in its stance on curtailing the monarchy, preferring to focus on the push for democracy, but it still commands large crowds at rallies, and is a widely popular choice among rural and working-class voters.

"We will together bring back democracy," Shinawatra has told campaign rally after campaign rally.

"Vote for Pheu Thai in a landslide," she exhorted the crowd at another rally, before the 36-year old gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 and briefly halted her campaigning duties.



Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, gestures as she attends a major rally event ahead of the upcoming election in Bangkok on Friday.© Jorge Silva/REUTERS

Why a landslide matters

At the rally on Wednesday before Election Day in Chiang Mai, the Pheu Thai Party's historic heartland where its rural base is located, the enthusiasm for the Shinawatra political dynasty was unwavering.

"I love Thaksin," 55-year old Nikom Mahawong said with a big grin, showing off the red t-shirt he was wearing, with Paetongtarn Shinawatra's face on it.

"I think she will be a good leader. She will bring Thailand to a better place," he said.

Other supporters were also keen to see Shinawatra take power.

"I've always had faith in the Pheu Thai Party," said Wichapat Siraksa, 43. "I want them to push Thailand forward," she added. "I want Pheu Thai to win by a landslide."



Nikom Mahawong, a big Thaksin Shinawatra fan, attends a Pheu Thai Party rally in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, in the week leading up to what observers are calling the most pivotal Thai election in a generation.© Salimah Shivji/CBC

Complex election rules in the country, implemented after the coup, mean the pro-democratic parties would need a sweeping landslide win to overcome the system that's skewed in favour of pro-military candidates.

Related video: Thailand election: Leading parties, personalities, key issues (WION)

Duration 1:54  View on Watch

cbc.ca Why Thailand's pro-democracy push may not be enough to shift power

2:36

Reuters Who are the main contenders in Thailand's election?

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TaiwanPlus  Thailand General Elections May See End to Junta Rule - TaiwanPlus News

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The junta appointed 250 senators who, along with Parliament's lower house, vote on who becomes prime minister. They're expected to overwhelmingly support pro-military candidates, as they did in the last election in 2019, which voting watchdog groups described as "heavily tilted" to benefit the military junta.

Calls for structural reform

It's system that infuriates the young voters flocking to a Move Forward event in Bangkok on May 9, to promote marriage equality and gay rights.

While some spoke of concerns about election rigging, others were more optimistic about the prospect of democratic reforms coming to Thailand.

"The Move Forward party, it's a new party and it brings our hope back," said 18-year old Supanid Phumithanes, who will be voting for the first time on Sunday.

"This time I want to see the real people who want to do something better for Thailand…. A whole new government," she added.

Her friend, Patita Wattananupong, 19 and also a first-time voter, nodded vehemently in agreement, saying that a few years ago, she had little hope that change would come to her country but that her "hope now is greater and greater."

In 2020, after an earlier incarnation of the Move Forward Party was dissolved, pro-democracy protests erupted, with tens of thousands of young people taking to the streets to demand change. The government crushed the movement, responding with mass arrests before the demonstrations fizzled as the pandemic raged.



Thailand's government clamped down on the youth-led anti-government protests in 2020 with mass arrests, although some demonstrations continued into the following year, like this one in Bangkok on March 24, 2021. The Constitutional Court eventually ruled that demands for reform of the Thai monarchy were unconstitutional and ordered an end to all movements.

© Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images

Pinda Puropakanonda, 32, told CBC News that Thai "society is broken." She said people have now "woken up from the narrative that they've been told all their lives, how they should respect the monarchy."

The incumbent prime minister, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, a former army chief who led the 2014 military coup, directly addressed the surge of support for structural reform at a campaign rally two days ahead of Sunday's vote.

"We do not want change that will overturn the country," Chan-o-cha said. "Do you know what kind of damage it would do? We cannot suddenly change all at once because we don't know what lies on the side."

There is still support for the conservative military establishment, particularly among the older generation.

"I love Prayuth's party. They love the king and love the nation," Muay Sae-Ue, 77, told CBC News moments after she warmly greeted the local conservative candidate outside her fresh egg stall in Bangkok's old town.

She feels that the younger generation doesn't like the King and that "will bring our country down."


Muay Sae-Ue, 77, has been running her fresh egg stall in Bangkok since she was a child. She is a supporter of incumbent prime minister and former army chief Prayuth Chan-o-cha, because he loves 'the king and the nation.'

© Salimah Shivji/CBC
'That's enough'

For political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the "rise and red-hot momentum" of Move Forward is a game-changer that's made this election more consequential than ever.

Pongsudhirak thinks the war over which party can be more populist is over, and the new political battleground that demands attention is deep, structural reform of Thailand's institutions: the military stranglehold on power, the judiciary's role in maintaining the status quo, and the dominant monarchy.

"The democratic process in Thailand has always been crooked, suppressed, subverted. And now some people are saying that that's enough," said the professor of politics and international relations at Chulalongkorn University.


Political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak rates this election as unlike any other Thailand has seen because of the progressive parties forcing issues like reforms to the monarchy's power to the fore.

© Salimah Shivji/CBC

The big question is what will happen after the vote: whether the pro-democratic parties will be able to form government if they win big, or whether the military establishment will move against them.

"I think a military coup would be the last resort," Pongsudhirak said, because it would be difficult to rationalize and explain to the rest of the world.

"Short of a coup itself, we've seen party dissolution, so they might go there again," he speculated. But if that happens, "you can bet that the [young supporters] will rise up and you'll see them in the streets," Pongsudhirak added.

"If [the military establishment] is hunkering down for another fight … then we'll see more tension and confrontation, as we've seen over the last two decades."

A tumultuous two decades in Thailand's politics
Story by Reuters • Yesterday 

Move Forward Party supporters show the three-finger salute during an upcoming election campaign event in Bangkok

© Thomson Reuters

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand has seen two coups, three prime ministers brought down by court rulings, intermittent violence and crippling colour-coded street demonstrations during two decades of political instability.

Below are key events leading up to Sunday's election.

2001 - Billionaire telecommunications tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra is elected prime minister on a populist platform. He is hugely popular, widely regarded as a mould-breaking premier who oversaw economic growth, prioritised the rural poor and courted foreign investors with plans for modernisation.

2005 - Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party wins another election in a landslide, the first Thai party to win re-election.

2006 - Allegations of Thaksin's corruption, cronyism, neptotism and abuse of power take hold, worsened by the tax-free sale of his family's Shin Corporation to Singapore state investor Temasek for 73 billion baht ($2.16 billion). His enemies orchestrate massive demonstrations against him, donning yellow shirts, the colour of the monarchy, and accusing him of disloyalty to the king. Thaksin denies wrongdoing.

The royalist military ousts Thaksin while he is in New York and he takes temporary refuge in Britain. Thai Rak Thai is dissolved for violating election law and Thaksin and party executives are banned from politics for five years.

2007 - Thai Rak Thai is re-launched as the People Power Party (PPP) and wins an election. Former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej becomes prime minister.

2008 - Thaksin returns to Thailand in February. Samak is disqualified as premier for appearing in a TV cooking show and Thaksin's brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, takes over as prime minister.

Yellow Shirts seize Bangkok's two international airports for 10 days and the blockade ends when a court dissolves PPP for electoral fraud. The Pheu Thai Party is created in its place.

A new coalition government is formed with the opposition Democrat Party at the helm. Thaksin leaves Thailand into self-imposed exile before a court convicts him of a conflict of interest and sentences him to two years in prison.

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2009 - A "red shirt" movement of Thaksin's mostly rural supporters hold weeks of rallies in Bangkok against the Democrat-led government, calling it unelected and illegitimate.

Red shirts storm an international summit in the seaside town of Pattaya, forcing leaders of China, Japan and Southeast Asian countries to flee. In Bangkok, rioting and arson ensues after confrontations between demonstrators and the military.

2010 - Red shirt protests resume and demonstrators set up camp in Bangkok's commercial heart for 10 weeks, paralysing business. Army efforts to disperse the protests turn deadly on several occasions, with more than 90 people killed, mostly protesters, the worst political violence in nearly two decades.

2011 - Pheu Thai wins an election in a landslide. Thaksin's popular but politically inexperience sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, becomes prime minister.

2013 - Anti-government protests resume in Bangkok after Yingluck's government introduces an amnesty bill that could have led to Thaksin’s return. The bill fails but the protests go on for months. Yingluck calls a snap election.

2014 - Elections are held but invalidated due to disruption. Protests intensify, the seat of government is breached but Yingluck's government stands firm. Martial law is declared to prevent bloodshed.

Yingluck steps down after a court finds her guilty of abuse of power. The military calls a meeting between the government and protesters to chart a way out of the crisis, during which army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha announces the talks have failed and the military is taking power in a coup.

2016 - King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies after a 70-year reign. He is succeeded by his son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

2017 - Yingluck flees Thailand ahead of a verdict against her over her government's rice subsidy scheme and jail term of five years. A military-drafted constitution is approved in a referendum.

2019 - Elections are held, Prayuth's army-backed Palang Pracharat party wins fewer seats than Pheu Thai but forms the government, with Pheu Thai in opposition. Prayuth is elected prime minister in a vote by the lower house and the junta-appointed Senate. Opposition parties say the process was rigged, which Prayuth denies.

2020 - A court dissolves the opposition Future Forward Party. Its billionaire founder Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit is banned from politics. Student-led protests begin and for the first time demand reform of the monarchy.

2021 - Protests die down as COVID-19 restrictions intensify. Legal cases against protest leaders mount.

2023 - Prayuth calls an election for May 14. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra is named a Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister.

Just a few days away from the election, Thaksin says he is seeking to end his 17 years in exiled and return.

(Compiled by Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by Martin Petty, Robert Birsel)