Wagner in Africa: the impact of Prighozin's presumed death

Russia's presence in Africa depends heavily on the Wagner Group, headed by Yevgeny Prighozin. But now there is uncertainty about the private military's role after his apparent death in a plane crash in Russia.



Philipp Sandner

Malians welcomed the Wagner Group in the hope they would help defeat the Islamist insurgency

Florent Vergnes/AFP/Getty Images

Russia's influence in Africa is intertwined with the mercenary activities of the Wagner Group in various countries, particularly in West and Central Africa. Next to China, Russia has become the main global player exerting its influence on the continent through aid and economic development, but also through trade and military cooperation.

But following reports that Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, might have died in a plane crash in Russia, many now wonder if military support from Russia in Africa will remain unchanged.

How could Wagner Group revolt impact Africa?  02:12

Business as usual in CAR

In an exclusive interview with DW, Fidele Gouandjika, an advisor to Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said that bilateral relations between his country and Russia would remain the same.

"We have a defense agreement with Russia, and the paramilitarias who are with us will continue their work as before. They will find another chief," he told DW.

"As for trade relations, we have a mining license, a brewery and a forestry license with the Russians. That will not change, even if Yevgeny Prigozhin is no longer there."

However, not everyone shares this optimistic view: Since a comprehensive peace agreement was reached in CAR only in February 2019 after decades of civil war, the Wagner Group's influence has extended even further. Wagner mercenaries have been in charge of protecting — and guiding — Touadera,whose advisors have long included a man with closer ties to Prigozhin.

This monument of Russian soldiers was erected in CAR's capital Bangui in honor of Russia's security contribution

Barbara Debout/AFP

CAR: A hostage of Wagner?

Former Communications Minister Adrien Poussou, who is also the author of the book "Africa Doesn't Need Putin," regards Wagner as practically pulling every string in the country now: "President Touadera is a hostage of Wagner, and he knows it," Poussou told DW.

"So despite the aborted rebellion of the Wagner Group, the situation remains deadlocked until an even bigger power interferes in this dance."

The CAR government has described the idea that it has lost control as "nonsense."

Still, even more measured voices have expressed their concern over the extent of Wagner's influence — with or without Prigozhin — in CAR: Paul Crescent Beninga, a civil society representative, says that the Wagner Group's interference in CAR's internal political affairs has now led to "a point where this undermines the ability of the Central African state to conduct its politics without pressure."

"The Central African Republic is not profiting from these developments," he added. "Rather, the winners are the Russians."

Russia's silence on the latest developments

Meanwhile, Moscow remains silent on the circumstances surrounding the plane crash. The Russian aviation authority claims that Wagner boss Prigozhin was on board and that all 10 occupants are believed dead.

But much is still unclear, including whether foul play was involved.

Before the Prigozhin's attempted coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, the Kremlin had praised Wagner's activities in Africa, especially in Mali and the Central African Republic. Its operations were expected to continue and even expand.

Jean-Pierre Mara, a former lawmaker in the Central African Republic, said there was "no question" that Wagner would continue its operations in Africa, as this was also in Russia's best interest.
Win-win relationship for Russia and Wagner

Russian historian Irina Filatova described Russia's relationship with the Wagner Group in Africa as a "win-win situation," with Wagner benefiting from Russia's prestige and Russian weapons and Russia having preferential access to Africa's natural resources.

"The relationship is very much like the pattern of European trading companies in the 19th century," Filatova told DW, drawing parallels to colonial times.

"They got a mandate from their respective state, acted independently, but the state benefited from their presence in Africa."

Cooperation between the private military and the Russian government occurs, especially where raw materials are abundant, with Wagner controlling the business interests on the continent.

Filatova explained that Russia benefitted from this relationship through Wagner's extensive network of sub-companies: "They can be rebranded or remain under the same name, as they are already a brand in Africa. They can act independently."

Mali's jaw-dropping Wagner bill

Meanwhile, in Mali there's even more financial entanglement between the government and Wagner and its subsidiaries: In late 2021, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, identified a new military base being built in the country.

Eyewitnesses on the ground then confirmed that the base was for Wagner troops.

On top of this, reports showed that Mali — one of the poorest countries in the world — was spending $10 million (€9 million) a month on Wagner mercenaries in the country, amounting to more than €100 million annually.

Wagner also has a significant stake in Mali's oil sector, effectively controlling the price of the fossil fuels for export.

Elsewhere, the group is active in mining other riches, including gold. In recent years, a Canadian and a South African company lost their mining licenses, while a Madagascan company — closely linked to Russia — received a new concession.

How each arm of Wagner may position itself in a potential post-Prigozhin future "is totally unclear," historian Filatova stressed, while suggesting that Russia would continue to seek to deepen its influence in Africa.

Mara took it further, explaining that Russia's activities through Wagner in Africa were part of its war strategy in Ukraine: "(Russia) needs the Central African gold, the Malian gold, to finance the war. So nothing will change."

Martina Schwikowski, Bob Barry, Sandrine Blanchard, Jean-Michel Bos and Mahamadou Kane in Bamako contributed to this article

This article was adapted from German by Chrispin Mwakideu and edited by Sertan Sanderson.

It was first published on June 30, 2023, and updated on August 24, 2023

Wagner's brutal work in Africa will be tough for the Kremlin to replace

Roland Oliphant
Thu, 24 August 2023 

Wagner's presence in Syria has been much coveted by the Kremlin

For nearly a decade, it was a piratical linchpin of Russian foreign policy: fronting deniable wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa, and growing rich in the process.

But with the death of its chief and his closest deputies, the Wagner private military company may have come to the end of the road.

But the Kremlin may also find the Wagner brand – with its unique mix of hard power and influence in the Middle East and Africa – hard to replace.

Although Yevgeny Prigozhin did not found the Wagner group (he came on board later), he was – as financier and manager – its corporate mastermind and largely responsible for its commercial success.

It was his connections to the Kremlin and gift for building personal connections and corrupt “understandings” that transformed it from one of many rag-tag gangs fighting Russia’s 2014 invasion of Donbas into a globe-trotting mercenary empire.

“Prigozhin had the rare ability to command the loyalty of fighting men and also run deals with local elites,” said Mark Galeotti, an expert on the Russian security services who is currently writing a book about Prigozhin.

“He would not have risen as far and as fast without Vladimir Putin’s patronage. But he was already doing relatively well. In his own way, he was effective as an entrepreneur especially in the environments where Wagner operates.”

Wagner’s global footprint is as broad as it is violent.

In Libya, it works with Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan National Army, and played a major role in his failed assault on Tripoli in 2019. Wagner mercenaries were, at one point, spotted at the Sharara oil field, the country’s largest.

Wagner mercenaries have also been present in Sudan since 2017, where they control a gold processing plant and are reported to have backed the Rapid Support Forces in the civil war that broke out there in April.

In West Africa, Wagner has a contract with the governments of the Central African Republic and Mali, and has obtained gold and other mineral exploitation rights in both.

Burkina Faso has been forced to deny hiring Wagner, but has hailed Russia as a strategic ally, and the group’s “consultants” were rumoured to be in touch with the military officers who carried out a coup in Niger last month – testament to the brand’s notoriety, whatever their real involvement.

This empire was already in trouble before Prigozhin and Wagner’s military founder, Dmitry Utkin, presumably died on Wednesday.

The secret to Prigozhin’s rapid business success – one he shares with a large number of Russian “tycoons” – was Vladimir Putin’s patronage.

It was a generous catering contract with the ministry of defence that provided the seed capital for Wagner’s overseas expansion.

A tight relationship with Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) and the Kremlin ensured Wagner’s access to training facilities, weapons, and the nod for jobs in Syria, Libya, and the central African Republic.

That patronage vanished the moment Prigozhin, Utkin, and many of their fighters rashly decided to mutiny two months ago.

In the treacherous realm where business and government merge, personal connections are vital and losing Putin’s trust is toxic.

Some Wagner bases in Syria were surrounded last month and their commanders interrogated, presumably to assess how much of a threat they posed to Putin’s rule and whether a further coup was being plotted from Damascus.

In July, Reuters reported that many Wagner fighters were forced to sign new contracts with the Russian defence ministry or were simply kicked out of Syria, citing Syrian regime officials. The crackdown suggests that both Bash al-Assad and Putin feel threatened by restive Wagner fighters inside the country.

On Tuesday, one day before Prigozhin’s jet crashed, Yunnus-bek Yevkurov, Russia’s deputy ministry of defence, arrived in Libya for talks with Gen Haftar.

Wagner has been contracted to train Syrian mercenaries

The ministry said in a press release that it was the “first official visit of a Russian military delegation to Libya,” and that the purpose was “to discuss prospects for cooperation in combating international terrorism and other issues of joint action”.

There could be no clearer signal that the army intends to muscle in on Wagner’s turf.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, said that the Russian ministry of defence had recently begun forming new mercenary groups to replace Wagner in Africa.

Wagner personnel and commanders were being headhunted for the new groups. Prigozhin’s trip to Africa was probably an attempt to fend off Russian military plans and drum up new missions for Wagner, one Russian insider source told the ISW.

The institute said: “The source claimed that GRU deputy head (head of the special activities service) Colonel General Andrei Averyanov led the effort to completely block Wagner from operating in Africa and that there were plans to create and train an army corps of more than 20,000 people as Wagner replacements.”

The source added that Prigozhin was deeply opposed to these efforts and “made every effort to prevent them”.

Wagner group mercenaries in Mali - French Army via AP

The ministry of defence’s own mercenary outfit, Redoubt, can easily take over Wagner’s fighting roles overseas.

Its founder, GRU general Vladimir Alexeyev, is reported to have clashed with Prigozhin repeatedly over what could be called mercenary market share.

But he lacks Prigozhin’s own knack for finding a rapport and making a deal with local leaders. And Wagner was not simply offering guns for hire.

Prigozhin’s Concord group could provide autocrats with paid internet trolls to paint them as legitimate leaders standing up to al-Qaeda and Islamic State, and “political consultants” to help rig elections.

The commercial structure would provide the business architecture not only to run mines and oil fields, but to smuggle it out of the country, launder the proceeds, and distribute kickbacks.

“It was a whole package of services for the budding autocrat,” said Mr Galeotti. The rewards in terms of Russian influence in Africa have been significant.

Wagner's soldiers in Syria were asked to sign contracts with the Russian military

In short, the Kremlin made Wagner indispensable. Now, they may have crippled it.

They may try to keep the operation running in some form. But the company is already minus some of its other key leaders. Andrei Troshev, the man often named as executive director of Wagner, has reportedly already jumped ship to Redoubt.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, a security and armed conflict analyst for the US think tank Brookings, has said that Wagner under a new leadership will likely still be used as a tool to protect Russian interests.

“Predictions of the end of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa and the Middle East in the aftermath of its ill-fated rebellion in Russia are premature,” she wrote in a post for the think tank Brookings in July.

“More likely, Wagner’s Middle East and Africa operations will persist: they still serve multiple interests of the Russian state and can be separated from Wagner’s Ukraine and Russia operations.”

Private Military Companies Continue to Expand in Africa

BY JOHN P. RUEHL

 AUGUST 25, 2023
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In the wake of the July 26 coup in Niger, the world’s spotlight has once again turned to the expansion of private military and security companies (PMSCs) across Africa. Following the removal of the relatively pro-Western government, Niger’s new military rulers asked Russian PMSC Wagnerto help defend against a possible military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warning of the PMSC seeking to exploit the instability.

In a continent marked by decades of post-colonial turmoil, PMSCs have steadily gained influence, evolving from their historical role as mercenaries into powerful, corporate-driven forces. As the Sahel region continues to grapple with instability and conflict, the strengthening of PMSCs, both domestic and foreign, will continue to reshape Africa’s security in profound and unpredictable ways.

Africa’s experience with PMSCs dates back to the decolonization period after World War II. Though mercenaries had been steadily sidelined in conflicts for centuries, rag-tag groups of privateers emerged as shadowy accomplices to colonial powers, aiding in suppressing rebellions and fomenting unrest while providing a degree of ambiguity. Britain’s “Mad Mike” Hoare and France’s Bob Denardcame to exemplify this era through their active involvement in military operations that undermined the sovereignty of African states.

The end of the Cold War ushered in a new chapter for PMSCs. With millions of demobilized soldiers seeking employment and civil conflicts on the rise in the early 1990s, these entities evolved into more corporate forms. The South African PMSC Executive Outcomes (EO), founded in 1989 by Eeben Barlow, gained notoriety by accepting contracts to protect energy infrastructure in Angola and to fight Sierra Leone’s civil war.

Pressure from South Africa’s post-apartheid government led to the disbandment of EO in 1998. But other PMSCs had emerged, including Sandline International, also financed by EO backer Anthony Buckingham and Canadian businessman Rakesh Saxena, that helped gain control over mineral rights in Sierra Leone. And after Washington began to lean heavily on PMSCs during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the taboo of using them was broken.

Existing in a legal gray zone, PMSCs have leveraged their strategic capabilities worldwide—no more so than in Africa. Fragile government institutions, powerful criminal and militant groups,international power struggles, and competition over Africa’s natural resources have nurtured an environment supportive of a growing network of PMSCs. Across the continent, they are used to secure energy facilities, government buildings, and private infrastructure, protect local actors and foreign personnel, and provide police and military training, intelligence, and active fire support to governments and corporate clients.

Through entities like the colossal PMSC Wagner, Russia has found an unconventional and effective way to assert influence in Africa’s security landscape. In the Sahel region, Russian PMSCs have filled a void left by departing French military forces and capitalizing on local anti-French sentimentin recent years.

Amid shifting allegiances, Wagner underscores how Russia’s indirect power projection allows the Kremlin to wield substantial influence without deploying conventional military forces. Wagner’s activities are believed to span across Mali, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Angola, Madagascar, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Other Russian PMSCs, such as RSB Group, Moran Security Group, and Patriot, also operate across Africa.

At the center of Russia’s PMSC network in Africa stands Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s financier. The Russian tycoon celebrated the success of the coup in Niger and declared Wagner capable of handling the situation, though the Russian government declined to support it. Despite Prigozhin’s longstanding quarrels with the Russian military, which culminated in his insurrectionist march toward Moscow in June, Prigozhin was recently seen meeting with African dignitaries on the side of the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg.

As the Nigerien government grapples with its situation, Wagner could again act as a Kremlin surrogate, safeguarding Russia’s interests by filling the security vacuum left by the ousted French military. Already, there are fears that Niger may halt uranium exports, vital to both French and EU supplies, and forcing the West’s attention to the country. Russian media has criticized Prigozhinsince his rebellion and officials have downplayed state connections to Wagner’s activities in Africa. But Prigozhin’s ongoing role in Africa suggests the Kremlin is relying on smoke and mirrors to obscure its true motivations.

Beyond Russia, numerous Western PMSCs have embedded themselves within Africa’s security. Unlike Russia’s PMSCs, most do not operate on the frontlines of conflict and primarily operate in security and training roles, though do coordinate with official military deployments. French PMSC Secopex made headlines in 2011 when its founder was killed in Libya during the country’s revolution, and it remains unclear as to what the PMSC’s role was.

Secopex had also been involved in the CAR and Somalia, while Corpguard (also created by the co-founder of Secopex, David Hornus) has been involved in training the Cote D’Ivoire’s military.

Other French PMSCs, such as Agemira, are active in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Though French-owned, Agemira is registered in Bulgaria to take advantage of the country’s lack of regulation and transparency. The UK’s Aegis Defence Services is believed to have worked in 18 African countries, while G4S, Erinys, and Olive Group are also active in Africa.

U.S. PMSCs have been active across the continent since the 2000s, with MPRI, CACI International, and Academi (previously the notorious Blackwater) among the most notable. Others, such as DynCorp, have provided training and logistical support to Liberia, Sudan, and Somalia, while Triple Canopy has been active in Niger. AdvanFort Co in turn offers anti-piracy maritime protection in East and West Africa. Germany’s Xeless and Asgaard are also active in Africa, with the latter having operations in Sudan, Libya, Mauritania, and Egypt.

PMSCs have increasingly begun to operate in the same conflict zones. Somalia, which lacked a functional state for more than two decades, provided fertile ground for PMSC expansion. PMSCs from the U.S., UK, China, UAE, and even Norway have helped Somalia train its official government forces and provide maritime protection from piracy and terrorism and ensure stability. But in Libya, PMSCs from or backed by Russia, France, the UK, the U.S., Turkey, the United Arab Emirates(UAE), and more have all been sent to the country since 2011 to exploit the chaos and advance their interests.

Active in Libya, Turkey’s SADAT group has also signed deals to train African troops while pitching itself as a Muslim alternative PMSC for Islamic-majority countries. The UAE-based Black Shield Security Company was accused in 2020 of promising Sudanese citizens security contractor jobs but instead sent them to conflict zones in Libya. Other UAE PMSCs have been active in East Africa, including in Somalia, while China has developed a multitude of PMSCs to secure its Belt and Road projects in Africa. Israeli PMSCs have their own African operations.

In 2014, the Nigerian government began hiring PMSCs to help defeat the Boko Haram insurgency. One of them, Specialized Task, Training, Equipment, and Protection (STTEP), was also set by EO’s Barlow and saw significant success that helped grant it additional contracts. Other modern South African PMSCs include Osprey, Blackhawk, and Dyck Advisory Group, the latter of which was hired by Mozambique to combat Al-Shabaab militants but was accused of killing civilians indiscriminately by the UN in 2020.

The use of PMSCs in Africa is likely to expand. They often offer African governments a quick, relatively inexpensive, and tailored way to manage crises instead of relying on ineffective state forces. PMSCs also enable international companies to protect themselves without relying on the fanfare of official military deployments by working with another corporate entity.

Nonetheless, this raises questions about sovereignty, a recurring issue in a continent where it has consistently been violated since African countries won their independence. The monopoly on the use of violent force by their police and military institutions has been steadily eroded by criminals, militants, foreign countries, and increasingly, PMSCs.

The dangers of commodifying security are evident. Foreign companies and powerful local actors can afford security, while the core issues of instability in countries or regions are not addressed. Furthermore, instability is often used by outside forces to their advantage. Many Africans also end up working for PMSCs outside the continent because they are cheaper than recruits from other parts of the world.

Furthermore, PMSCs, and the governments and companies that employ them, remain largely uncommitted to stronger regulation. The Montreux Document aimed to enforce greater rules for PMSCs, but has been criticized for its limited scope and lack of binding nature. Other countries, including the five members of the UN Security Council, have refused to ratify the UN International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries.

Criticism of PMSCs in Africa is growing. In February 2023, the African Union (AU) commissioner for political affairs, peace, and security, Bankole Adeoye, called for the “complete exclusion of mercenaries from the African continent.” But U.S. PMSC Bancroft Global had already been hired by the AU to assess the risk of Somali forces trained by Blackwater founder Erik Prince to continue operating in the country.

These entities epitomize globalization. Aegis Defence Services was acquired by Canadian company GardaWorld in 2015, while DynCorp was bought by Amentum in 2020. Academi and Triple Canopy merged in 2014 to form Constellis Group, while Triple Canopy has outsourced work to Peru-based PMSC Defion International. Erik Prince, through the Hong Kong-based Frontier Services Group, has helped China train its own PMSCs for use in Africa and elsewhere. G4S was meanwhile bought by Allied Universal in 2021 and is now North America’s third-largest private employer. Allied Universal itself is owned by institutional investor Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and private equity firm Warburg Pincus.

Many PMSCs provide legitimate and needed security for civilians and government officials. But considering the wide-ranging motivations, means, and methods of so many PMSCs on the continent—and increasingly in the same spaces—it is critical for Africa’s governments, leaders, and populations to consider how comfortable they are in allowing this rapidly developing global PMSC network to continue expanding in their own backyards.

This article was produced by Globetrotter.

John P. Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, D.C. He is a contributing editor to Strategic Policy and a contributor to several other foreign affairs publications. He is currently finishing a book on Russia to be published in 2022.

Berlin notes 'pattern' after Prigozhin's presumed death


German top diplomat Baerbock said the mercenary leader's presumed death follows a pattern of "unclarified" fatalities in Russia. She expected Russia to continue its "cynical game" regardless.


August 24, 2023

Prigozhin is believed to have been killed in a private jet crash

Germany's top diplomat Annalena Baerbock on Thursday said it was only natural to suspect the Kremlin's involvement in the presumed death of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin , referring to a pattern of "unclarified fatalities in Russia."

Prigozhin was on a private jet that crashed in Russia on Wednesday, Wagner-linked media said.

Russian aviation authorities also said the Wagner Group leader was on the flight, with state media saying all people on board were killed.

"It is no accident that the world immediately looks at the Kremlin when a disgraced former confidant of Putin suddenly, literally falls from the sky two months after he attempted a mutiny," said Annalena Baerbock, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Wagner's Prigozhin presumed dead — is he really?  05:46

What did Baerbock say?

Speaking during a press conference with the Kyrgyz foreign minister, Baerbock listed different ways Putin's adversaries have died in the past.

"We know this pattern in Putin's Russia: deaths, dubious suicides, falls from windows, all which remain unclarified — that underlines a dictatorial power system that is built on violence," the German foreign minister said.

The Wagner Group was heavily involved in Russia's fight in Ukraine before Prigozhin's short-lived mutiny in June.

German FM: 'We can't trust official Russian pronouncements'  00:37

The mercenary group is also present in various active conflicts in Africa, where the emerging economies bloc BRICS, of which Russia is a member, announced on Thursday inviting new members including two African countries.

"We must fear that Russia, with or without Wagner, will continue with its cynical game not only in Ukraine but above all in Africa," Baerbock said.

"And we must not forget that Prigozhin and Wagner are responsible for horrendous crimes against the Ukrainian people and in one country after the next in Africa."

Other reactions to Prigozhin's presumed death

Putin on Thursday offered his condolences to the families of all the crash victims.

"First of all I want to express words of sincere condolences to the families of all the victims," Putin said, describing Prigozhin as a man who made serious mistakes but "achieved results."

France has said that there was justifiable speculation about the causes of the plane crash that allegedly killed Prigozhin.

"We don't yet know the circumstances of this crash. We can have some reasonable doubts," government spokesman Olivier Veran told France 2 television.

Prigozhin was "the man who did Putin's dirty work. What he has done is inseparable from the policies of Putin, who gave him the responsibility to carry out abuses as the head of Wagner," he said.

An adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper that Prigozhin's death was predictable.

"Prigozhin signed his own death warrant the moment he stopped 200 kilometers from Moscow," Mykhailo Podolyak told the newspaper on Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy denied that Kyiv had anything to do with the crash.

"Everyone knows who was involved," Zelenskyy said.

United States President Joe Biden expressed a similar sentiment. "I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised," he said.

While Russia expert Stefan Meister agreed that the death came as no surprise, he downplayed the possibility of the Wagner Group staging an uprising against the Kremlin.

"This is a private army working for money," Meister was quoted by the German DPA news agency as saying.

rmt/rc (AFP, dpa, Reuters)

Op-Ed: Prigozhin dead, or is he?

By Paul Wallis

DIGITAL JOURNAL
August 24, 2023

Prigozhin, dubbed 'Putin's chef' because of his Kremlin catering contracts, has previously denied links with Wagner - Copyright SPUTNIK/AFP/File Alexey DRUZHININ

The number of questions that instantly came to life after Prigozhin’s reported death in a plane crash are creating plenty of ripples. Prigozhin was supposedly on the passenger list of a plane he owned. The plane crashed between Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Plane crashes are also pretty normal in Russia, so that’s at least one typical scenario. This slapdash coverage wouldn’t fly elsewhere in the world, pun obligatory, but it’d be baseline average in Russia.

Not everyone’s buying this news. Some say the plane crash was typical FSB work. People in the region “heard two bangs” and saw vapor trails coming from the plane. That’s not exactly solid information.

While Russian sources are adamant that Prigozhin died in the plane crash, the news isn’t making headlines in Russia. It was one of the last items reported in a Russian newscast, according to The Guardian.

Never mind conspiracy theories. The hourly information coming from Liveua/map on Twitter is all over the place. Someone even accused Russia of shooting down the plane.

While there would be nothing even slightly surprising about a Russian assassination of Prigozhin, there are still some questions.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen in Bakhmut in May 2023 footage of Concord, a company linked to the Russian mercenary group – Copyright TELEGRAM/ @concordgroup_official/AFP/File Handout

Why did no report say the body had been positively identified?

Why the song and dance routine with Lukashenko and the Belarus option?

What happens to Wagner Group now?

Who, if anybody, takes over from Prigozhin?

Prigozhin is quite smart enough to do anything required to get himself out of Russia. Being on a passenger list is hardly an in-depth forensic examination of his whereabouts. He would also have had his own people doing maintenance on the plane.

Russia is famously blasé about reports of people being killed by their government agencies. They never admit it, but they never deny it either. This incident is more likely to get buried than investigated in depth.

The Wagner group has spearheaded the months-long Russian assault on Bakhmut – Copyright Venezuelan Presidency/AFP Handout

If the idea was to decapitate Wagner Group, it’s probably succeeded. It has also demolished one of the few effective combat forces Russia had left. Private armies are easy to manage in that sense if no other. If Prigozhin has gone, so are his networks. It would also send an unmistakable message to other mercenary groups.

If Prigozhin staged his death, the message is equally clear. He had to get out of a dangerous environment, and the plane crash would be a nice diversion. On balance, I’d say he probably is dead, but nothing in Russian history is ever that simple.

Prigozhin death leaves many unknowns and one assumption


By AFP
August 24, 2023


The head of the mercenary group was on board a plane that crashed on Wednesday, with all passengers killed - Copyright AFP JIM WATSON

Didier LAURAS

The exact circumstances of the death of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin remained unclear Thursday, although most experts believe it marks President Vladimir Putin’s vengeance for his short-lived rebellion in June.

The head of the mercenary group, which in June attempted to topple Russia’s military leadership, was on board a plane that crashed on Wednesday, with all passengers killed, Russian officials said.

Russian social media accounts linked to the opposition or Wagner itself were echoing the analysis of Western think tanks, seeing Prigozhin living on borrowed time since his aborted march on Moscow two months ago.

“No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won’t particularly counteract this view,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consultancy.

Russian authorities have not put forward any cause for the crash, leaving the field open for a mass of questions and assumptions.

– Why did the plane crash? –

Personnel from Russia’s powerful Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, were on the scene less than 24 hours after the crash.

Although neither the Kremlin nor the defence ministry have made a statement, an investigation has been opened for breach of air safety rules.

Wagner’s official accounts have been dark since June 26, when Prigozhin published a last audio message.

But accounts close to the group made so-far unproven claims that the plane was brought down by an S-300 surface-to-air missile system.

The theory began spreading immediately after the crash became known, with the Grey_Zone Telegram account describing “characteristic air defence white trails in the sky” on an amateur video supposedly of the crash — which AFP was unable to verify.

Other unverified images show a plane, allegedly the Embraer 135 carrying Prigozhin, spiralling down to the ground.

Even Margarita Simonian, the head of RT — formerly Russia Today — publicly appeared to endorse the assassination theory as she dismissed the idea that Prigozhin had staged his own death.

“Personally I lean towards the most obvious” theory, she wrote.

– Other victims –

An official manifest shows ten passengers on board the plane that crashed in the Tver region northwest of Moscow.

“Everyone on board was killed,” Russia’s emergency ministry said.

Short biographies were published by Dossier, a site belonging to exiled businessman and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Among them was Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin’s heavyset, shaven-headed right-hand man who was known to have neo-Nazi sympathies.

Utkin “was in charge of command and combat training,” Dossier wrote, and “signed orders with ‘Sieg'” — the German word for “victory” used in the Nazi “Sieg Heil” greeting.

He referred to Prigozhin himself as “Heil Petrovich”, Dossier added.

Valery Chekalov, another passenger, was one of the directors of Prigozhin’s Concord company and had worked for him since the 2000s.

He supervised all the Wagner boss’s civilian projects abroad, “whether geological prospecting, oil production or agriculture” as well as the mercenary firm’s logistics, Dossier said.

– The overriding assumption –

Putin’s rage at Wagner’s mutiny, his history of eliminating opponents and the tightening of his regime’s control since its invasion of Ukraine have all been highlighted by observers pinning Prigozhin’s death on the Kremlin.

“If Russia was a normal state, then his mutiny would have led to a trial… Whatever we may think of Prigozhin, it is unconscionable to kill someone without a trial, especially when he was not in hiding,” Khodorkovsky posted on X (formerly known as Twitter).

“But in the world where Putin operates —- that of gangsters —- that’s the only way things can be done. After all, who knows what he might have said in court?” Khodorkovsky added.

“Putin has a habit of belated revenge,” said Samuel Ramani of British think-tank RUSI, recalling that Alexander Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya were killed in 2006 after criticising the Chechen war in the early 2000s.

“Prigozhin’s death unfolded much more quickly than usual,” he added.

Further questions were asked by figures including former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.

“Why did Putin choose to kill Prigozhin in such a dramatic way? Why did he allow Prigozhin to meet with African leaders during his St. Petersbourg summit?” last July, he wrote on X.

What’s more, why are Wagner loyalists “allowed to pop off about revenge on social media now?” he wondered.

‘Like losing your father’: Wagner chief’s supporters mourn


By AFP
August 24, 2023

Prigozhin's authority and popularity skyrocketed after Moscow launched its Ukraine offensive - Copyright AFP Wakil KOHSAR

Russian supporters of Yevgeny Prigozhin gathered outside the Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg on Thursday to pay their respects to the mercenary group’s boss, presumed dead after a mysterious plane crash.

Prigozhin was branded a “traitor” by President Vladimir Putin after his short-lived rebellion against the conventional Russian army on June 23-24.

But he remained popular among Russians, who acclaimed the battlefield achievements of the Wagner paramilitary group — despite many accusations of abuses and war crimes.

“You could say it’s like losing your father. He was everything to us, because everyone was always waiting (for) what Uncle Zhenia (Prigozhin) was going to say,” said Igor.

Like Igor, who was wearing a hat with the Wagner logo and the national flag on it, many Russians eagerly awaited Prigozhin’s outspoken videos and audio messages on social media.

The clips, full of expletives, were a sharp contrast to the tightly controlled narrative of Russian officials.

His verve and unbridled criticism of Russia’s regular army had turned him into a cult figure for parts of Russian society — and antagonised Moscow’s top brass.

Tensions degenerated into a violent but short-lived mutiny attempt at the end of June.

The mutiny ended with a deal, mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, under which Prigozhin was expected to move to neighbouring Belarus with some of his fighters.

There was no mention of Prigozhin’s rebellion — or the ensuing public repudiation by Putin — from the mourners laying red carnations in front of Wagner’s glass-fronted multistorey headquarters, which opened last autumn with great fanfare.

– ‘An orphan’ –

They also avoided speculating on the reasons behind the crash of the plane, on which Wagner’s operational chief Dmitry Utkin was also flying.

A probe has been launched into the cause of the crash but investigators gave no update on Thursday.

Mourners however expressed a familial affection for the warlord, who spent years in prison in Soviet times before making a fortune through his catering business and later building Russia’s most powerful private army.

Pavel Zakharov compared Prigozhin to Charles de Gaulle, France’s former president and head of the resistance against the Nazis.

“You know, when in France President Charles de Gaulle died, it was said that France had become an orphan.

“I can only say that for me tonight, it’s probably Russia that has become an orphan,” the 36-year-old said.

Among the crowd was Natalya, a 31-year-old woman who arrived on a bike, a bouquet in hand.

She said it felt as if she had lost a family member.

“For us he had become like a friend, a brother. I think this is very significant moment for the soldiers today,” she said.

But some feared that Prigozhin’s death would raise tensions in Russia.

“I hope it will not become for our society some kind of red rag to a bull,” said Natalya

SEE

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=PRIGOZHIN

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=WAGNER+GROUP

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=WAGNER

Online-offline

Farid Panjwani 

IMAGINE two schools: School Z, with an inclusive and respectful environment where students feel valued and safe; School A, where bullying, harassment and discrimination are rife. Imagine both schools introducing online learning and cyber interactions. Students collaborate on projects, which have potential for multidisciplinary learning. They also have access to each other digitally through their social media. In such a scenario, we should expect the existing offline atmosphere to invade the online sphere. Though School Z may become more productive and friendlier, bullying may increase in School A. Those suffering harassment in classrooms may now face it even at home. The online and offline are entangled.

For many, these new publicly available technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and robotics, have the potential to create a world of equitable opportunities, peace and sustainable growth. This optimism is grounded in technologies’ computational power, ever-expanding data and capacity to self-learn. In education, for instance, these technologies are providing highly personalised and stimulating lessons and assessment to students.

But potential does not always get actualised. Not long ago, there was a zeal for the transformative power of social media to create a more democratic and progressive world. Now these claims are rarely made. Why? The reason, as shown in the thought experiment above, is that technology’s impact depends significantly on the material, social and political conditions of the offline world within which it operates. The psychological manipulations, harassments, surveillance, commercialisation, propaganda, all that was happening in the world became part of social media as well.

What material and political offline conditions can hinder the realisation of the potential of new technologies? Perhaps the most concerning is wealth and income inequities. A recent IMF report calls them the “defining challenge of our time”. In 2022, 1.2 per cent of the richest people controlled 47.8pc of the total global wealth, while the bottom 53pc of the people had access to only 1.1pc of the wealth. The economic inequality translates into social, educational, and political inequity. Consequently, while some children will study with the best personalised learning systems, many will not have access to even basic literacy. Unless efforts are made to reduce this gap in the access to technologies, the dream of equitable opportunities for all is likely to recede further, aggravating disparities and their consequences.

The potential of new technology is not always actualised.

Among the ardent supporters of the new technologies are large commercial companies and state security agencies. Profit and surveillance are their primary motives for propagating AI. Shoshana Zuboff calls the resulting socioeconomic structure “surveillance capitalism”. The profit motive is likely to impel job losses as firms will seek to replace humans with machines as deliberate policy. The surveillance motive will further curtail civil liberties. Finally, the new technologies are equally available to propagate ideologies, spread propaganda and commit cybercrimes.

Given this entanglement of the two worlds, what can be done to realise the positive potential of the new technologies for the majority of humanity? We must see technology as a human artefact that operates within historical and cultural contexts. It shapes and is shaped by a society’s values. Hence, we must make educational, legal, economic, and social efforts to move towards a just and progressive offline world.

Wealth inequity is perhaps the most serious threat to the potential of the new technologies to create equitable societies. It must be addressed. There is still time to develop legislation that protects privacy and civil liberties of individuals. Simi­la­­r­­ly, as the profit motive will incline firms to minimise human labour, we must struggle against every job lost because of this technology — every time the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.

Coming to education, it will be important that in their drive to technology, schools must retain their aim of nurturing a well-rounded student with social skills and emotional depth. As the notions of technology, science and math often go together, it is easy to forget the importance of humanities and the arts. This will be a mistake. Fortunately, it appears that the dangers of uncritical enthusiasm for new technology are being recognised, as shown in a recent Unesco report about banning smartphones in schools. This must continue.

The positive potential of AI is tremendous. We need prudence, moral reasoning, democratic oversight, and concern for the vulnerable to harness it. Without these, the road to hell may get paved with good intentions.

The writer is a faculty member at the Aga Khan University-Institute for Educational Development (AKU-IED).

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2023

Balanced scorecard: The positives and negatives of AI revealed

By Dr. Tim Sandle
August 24, 2023

AI: More than Human exhibition invites you to explore our relationship with artificial intelligence. 

The U.K. is investing £100 million in AI chips, according to The Guardian. This is reflective in the growth of AI platforms. One survey, as an example, has revealed that nearly half of UK workers use AI to write resumes and cover letters. This suggests AI is rapidly changing how we live our lives and how we work.

Yet the future world of AI carried with it both positive changes and negative effects. Many of these have been mapped out by Chris Raven, CEO at business growth agency Heur, and he has shared these with Digital Journal.

Raven provides an assessment of the benefits and negatives of AI in the workplace and what this means for the future of work.

Positives of AI

Beginning with the positives, Raven says: “Artificial Intelligence offers many positives in the workplace. It can help businesses to enhance productivity, streamline operations, and, importantly, drive innovation.”

Boosted Efficiency

AI technologies can automate more menial tasks which allows employees to focus and be more granular on complex jobs that require more time that may not have been possible before. AI can save an employee a massive amount of time which boosts efficiency and productivity.

Data Driven Analysis

AI can process vast amounts of data and identify patterns, trends, and insights that humans that have other things on their mind might miss. With these insights, businesses can make strong, data-driven decisions and optimise processes. Predictive systems can look at historical data and to accurately predict future trends, customer behaviour, and market demands. They also help businesses to anticipate changes and make proactive decisions that will enable success in the long run.

Bolstered Security

Data theft is at an all-time high, but luckily, AI is adept in detecting and preventing cyber threats. These systems continuously monitor network traffic which identifies anomalies before they become a bigger problem for your business. It can also help in fraud detection and prevention by analysing patterns and user behaviour.

Streamlined Recruitment

Recruiting can be difficult, especially post Great Resignation and workplace trends such as ‘resenteeism’ and ‘quiet quitting’ on the rise. However, AI-powered tools can automate candidate screening and initial assessments, which can ease the recruitment process and give you greater peace of mind. Once the hiring is done, AI can help you further with employee onboarding and initial training.

Improved Employee Productivity

AI-powered virtual assistants and productivity tools can help individuals manage their tasks, schedules, and priorities more effectively, which will especially help employees that can become easily distracted or work flexible hours or WFH. The benefits of these systems are endless as they are able to provide reminders, automate routine activities, and offer personalised recommendations, which we all need once in a while.”

Negatives of AI

Moving into the negative influences of AI, Raven explains: “It’s important to realise that while AI can provide lots of positives, it also raises ethical challenges in the workplace, such as privacy concerns, bias in algorithms, and the impact on jobs.”

Loss of Jobs

What you’ll find is that most businesses’ hesitation to embrace AI is a fear that it will take over human-led jobs. Artificial intelligence and automation can and will replace certain jobs. However, it’s important to note that while certain tasks may be automated, AI can also create job opportunities and can change human capabilities for the better.

Ethical Issues

AI systems mainly rely on algorithms and data, which can introduce biases if not implemented with care and consideration. Biases in AI can lead to discriminatory conclusions which can perpetuate existing inequalities which can be incredibly damaging for businesses. It is important to ensure that these systems are fair, transparent, and accountable.”

Over Reliance on AI

While Artificial Intelligence can boost efficiency of certain processes, overreliance on AI systems without proper human management will become problematic. AI algorithms are not yet perfect and can make errors which will require human intervention. It’s important to find a good balance between AI and human decision-making, which can prove to be a long learning curve.”

Cost Challenges

Incorporating AI technologies in the workplace can be expensive, which, with most businesses feeling the pressures of the cost-of-living crisis, can be an unnecessary cost that many businesses simply can’t afford.”

Impact on Work-Life Balance

While AI takes care of the menial, time-consuming tasks, there is a risk that employees will be under more scrutiny and managers will have higher expectations due to the increased productivity. It is crucial to check in with your employees regularly and manage the incorporation of AI in a way that supports work-life balance and prevents employee burnout.”

What to make of this? Raven adds: “The reality is that the landscape of work is likely to change due to the leaps and bounds AI has made in recent years. However, there are human processes and skills that robots cannot replicate, such as creativity, emotional intelligence and critical thinking.”

Raven’s final advice for businesses runs: “In order to adapt to the AI boom, it is important to reconfigure your workplace accordingly. As menial jobs are overtaken by AI, it’s crucial to invest in reskilling your employees, seek innovation where you can and ensure best and ethical practices are used when incorporating AI in the workplace.”

Historic UK codebreaking base to host ‘world first’ AI safety summit

By AFP
August 24, 2023

Bletchley Park is where top British codebreakers cracked Nazi Germany's "Enigma" code, hastening the end of World War II - Copyright AFP Sam Yeh

Britain will host a two-day international summit in November to explore how artificial intelligence can be safely developed, the government said on Thursday.

The “world first” gathering will be held on November 1-2 at Bletchley Park, where top British codebreakers cracked Nazi Germany’s “Enigma” code, hastening the end of World War II.

It is also the home of the National Museum of Computing, home to the world’s largest collection of working historic computers.

The planned event comes as experts have warned of the dangers of the new technology without regulation.

“To fully embrace the extraordinary opportunities of artificial intelligence, we must grip and tackle the risks to ensure it develops safely in the years ahead,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a statement.

Sunak, who has called AI “the defining technology of our time”, announced the summit on a visit to Washington in June.

The same month ChatGPT creator OpenAI said it would open its first office outside the United States in London.

Its decision was welcomed by the UK government as a “vote of confidence for Britain as an AI powerhouse”.

Sunak wants a future global AI regulator to be based in London, angling for a place at the table as the United States and the European Union seek to establish an AI code of conduct.

OpenAI chief Sam Altman backs long-term institutional oversight but has warned that “heavy regulation” could hamper the rapid development of the technology.

His company said “London’s vibrant technology ecosystem and its exceptional talent make it the ideal location” to locate its first international office.

Around 50,000 people are employed in the UK’s AI sector.

– AI dangers –

“With the combined strength of our international partners, thriving AI industry and expert academic community, we can secure the rapid international action we need for the safe and responsible development of AI around the world,” added Sunak.

ChatGPT burst into the spotlight late last year, demonstrating an ability to generate essays, poems and conversations from the briefest of prompts.

Common worries have included the possibility that chatbots could flood the web with disinformation, that biased algorithms will churn out racist material, or that AI-powered automation could lay waste to entire industries.

A group of industry chiefs and experts, including Altman, even warned earlier this year that governments should prioritise tackling the potential risks from AI along with “pandemics and nuclear war”.

UK Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan said international collaboration would be the “cornerstone” of the UK’s approach to AI which was already delivering innovations in areas from health care to efforts to tackle climate change.

“We want the summit to result in leading nations and experts agreeing on a shared approach to its safe use,” she said.

The international gathering would ensure the technology’s “huge benefits” could be realised “safely and securely for decades to come”, she added.

Interview: Banking’s digital revolution: How well placed are community banks?

By Dr. Tim Sandle
August 24, 2023

Traders globally have breathed a sigh of relief at steps to support struggling banks - Copyright AFP Alain JOCARD

Where do community banks sit in the financial service competitive landscape? James Yacobucci, Head of Bank Partnerships at Torpago discusses with Digital Journal about the importance of community banks, technology modernization and stimulating growth in 2023.

Torpago is a business credit card and spend management platform provider. Prior to joining Torpago, Yacobucci held roles in business development at Marqeta and principal investments at JPMorgan Chase.

Digital Journal: Where do community banks sit in the financial services competitive landscape?

James Yacobucci: Community banks offer customers much more than a place to deposit money. They are essential to local communities, serving as investors in local businesses and community projects, often becoming pillars within their respective markets. Living among their customers, community bankers may identify opportunities to offer bespoke solutions where a larger regional or national institution may not. While having their own strengths, the largest financial institutions are not set up to understand the financial goals and needs of the typical community banking customer.

DJ: What are some of the common struggles faced by community banks?

Yacobucci: Community banks have a growth problem. Over the last decade, many traditional banks have consolidated, while challenger fintechs have received tens of billions of investment. In this context, community banks have faced three core challenges. The first is fewer resources than the competition. Resources include not only absolute headcount and dollars, but also the specific talent required to compete in today’s market. The second is fewer products and an increasingly aging infrastructure, which means fewer ways to innovate and monetize their customer base. This challenge is largely a result of the resource problem. The third struggle relates to broader industry instability following the bank failures of 2023. In today’s environment, community banks have fewer levers to pull when seeking to retain and attract deposits.

DJ: What can community banks do to protect deposits and stimulate growth?

Yacobucci: In the short-term, community banks can protect deposits by increasing deposit betas. In other words, they can reward their depositors with a higher yield that tracks rate increases from the Federal Reserve. Longer-term, however, this is not a sustainable differentiator or growth driver. Rather, community banks must invest in their people, technology and products to improve their value proposition in noticeable ways. In doing so, the bank will become more attractive to both new and existing customers.

DJ: How does Torpago work with community banks?

Yacobucci: Torpago provides a white-label (bank-branded) commercial credit card and expense management software for community banks and credit unions. Our customers typically use vendors who are over 20 years old, or are launching a card program for the first time. If launching a card program for the first time, banks immediately add a new revenue stream and product offering. If upgrading an existing program, our clients see improvements across UI/UX, card controls, transaction data, fraud monitoring, underwriting flexibility, and program customization. Our customers’ goals in using Torpago typically include: deposit retention and growth, increased card spend, enhanced customer experience and improved operating efficiency.

DJ: How should community banks think about working with Torpago?

Yacobucci: Torpago was built to facilitate modernization in a manner that minimizes disruption to the bank’s systems best kept unchanged. Banks who want to ‘own more’ can pick and choose the modules and features they want to use from us as our platform data is available via API. Alternatively, we provide a more out-of-the-box program that allows banks to get to market faster with less investment. In this instance, Torpago can bring the balance sheet, web and mobile applications, servicing and support, easing the burden of an initial program launch. Programs can be launched between two and six months, depending on the chosen go to market strategy.

DJ: What is your recommendation to community banks interested in technology modernization?

Yacobucci: For community banks, starting the modernization journey can be daunting, but the impact the changes will have on the bank’s employees and customers is worth the work. From an employee perspective, working with modern technology can attract the best talent. Jobs can also be more enjoyable with technology that facilitates process improvements, growth opportunity, and happy customers. From a customer perspective, the ability to integrate with and offer the latest technology is essential. In an increasingly competitive market, community banks must upgrade systems to keep customers and expand footprint. The bank does not have to do this alone. Finding a modernization partner who can fill technical or talent gaps to facilitate this journey will be worth the investment.