Climate finance: Preparations for UN climate talks kick off

Beatrice Christofaro

June 3, 2024

Negotiators are laying the groundwork for a new climate finance goal ahead of the COP 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Who's paying for the rising costs of climate change?

Image: NHAC NGUYEN/AFP/


Forking out for the rising costs of climate change has been a contentious issue for years. But as the climate continues to heat up, leading to ever more unpredictable and extreme weather events, it is an issue of growing importance.

Against that backdrop, thousands of government negotiators, researchers and civil society members are gathering in the German city of Bonn for the next two weeks. There, they will lay the groundwork for the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, at the end of the year.

Among the thorniest questions on the table are: Which developed nations should pay? How much money should come from government coffers and how much from private businesses? And how can countries be transparent about where the money is going?

"The questions are so complex and there are so many countries involved, the two weeks in November aren't enough," said Petter Lyden, Head of International Climate Policy at the NGO Germanwatch. "A conference like the one in Bonn to prepare is crucial."
From billions to trillions

In 2009, richer countries decided to provide US $100 billion (€92 billion) annually by 2020 to help developing nations mitigate and cope with the effects of the climate crisis. The OECD, which has been tracking progress towards the goal, found the donors met the target for the first time in 2022 — two years later than agreed.

"While fully reaching the $100 billion annual goal is worth celebrating, the funding needed to come to grips with the climate crisis in the years ahead goes well beyond this amount," Melanie Robinson of the US-based World Resources Institute (WRI) said in a statement.

African leaders call for fairer climate financing  01:58

Indeed the signatories of the Paris Agreement pledged to come up with a new finance goal before 2025. And the pressure to up the target is growing.

According to a 2021 study by the WRI, climate finance needs to rise to a whopping US $5 trillion per year by 2030. Especially as mega economies continue to burn fossil fuels — and heatwaves, rainstorms, droughts and wildfires linked to rising temperatures devastate more and more places around the world.

"This is not just a cost, it's an investment," said Joe Thwaites who works on international climate policy for the US non-profit Natural Resources Defense Council. "Even when the investment gets into the scale of trillions of dollars, we'll save multiple trillions of dollars in avoided damages."

Who is going to pay?

The question is where to get these sums from. Many of the developed countries who agreed to the 2009 goal are calling on other high-polluting economies to pull their weight. Top emitters like China and Saudi Arabia have so far been exempt because the UN counts them as developing nations.

"It's the time of taking action and we need more countries that take their fair share," Germany's Development Minister Svenja Schulze said at a Berlin climate conference in April. "All the ones who are big emitters, also the Gulf states, also China, we all need to do more."

Another sticking point is how to get private investments flowing into climate action.

Ultimately, Thwaites says, this is a responsibility that falls back on the state, be it via taxation, regulation or subsidies. Because it is governments, not the private sector, negotiating and enforcing the new finance goal.

"While it's important to be looking at what roles every part of the global economy should play in meeting the climate challenge, the commitments need to be things that governments can be held accountable for," he said.

Is Saudi Arabia really quitting oil? 12:40

Agreeing about transparency

One of the challenges in implementing the original finance goal is transparency.

Without clear reporting regulations on different types of funding, interpretations between donor countries and recipients often get muddled. In other words, money that was meant for a development project, for example, might be used to reduce emissions or to adapt to a warming world.

The uncertainty also makes it hard to follow which countries upheld their end of the bargain

"Developed countries can have a lot of room to play with how they present their climate finance statistics," said Tom Evans, Senior Policy Advisor at the climate think tank E3G. "That's led to a lot of distrust and skepticism about whether targets are being met."

The UN will complete a new transparency framework at the COP summit this year. Countries are expected to use unified reporting guidelines to show how they are contributing to the fight against climate change — and that includes finance statistics.

Paving the way in Bonn

Unlike the COP 29 in Baku, which will be attended by world leaders, the smaller conference in Bonn attracts expert negotiators from the different government delegations. They discuss technical details with less political scrutiny.

"Those technical pieces are really the key to a good deal," says Evans. "But the challenge of Bonn is always trying to see how far you can get towards the final deal without ever agreeing anything."

While the conference provides vital groundwork, high-ranking politicians must come in to make final decisions around contentious issues. And it is in Azerbaijan that they will have the chance to negotiate what to do with the building blocks laid down in Bonn.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker

Sources:

Intercontinental cooperation on energy projects   03:34

https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/
OECD: Climate Finance and the USD 100 Billion Goal

https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2021
World Resources Institute: State of Climate Action 2021: Systems Transformations Required to Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C

https://sdg.iisd.org/events/2024-un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-29/
IISD: 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29)

Beatrice Christofaro German-Brazilian multimedia reporter focused on the environment

SPACE

China spacecraft lifts off with rocks from moon's far side

China says its probe has started its journey back toward Earth after gathering samples from the far side of the moon in a world first.

DW
June 4, 2024

Chang'e-6's spacecraft collected rock and soil samples from the far side of the moon

Image: CNSA/Xinhua/AP/picture alliance

China's lunar spacecraft started its journey back to earth after collecting samples from the far side of the moon, the country's space agency said on Tuesday.

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) said the ascender module of the Chang'e-6 probe unfurled the Chinese flag before lifting off.

The craft was the first to ever successfully take off from the moon's far side.

The mission comes as China advances its space program, aiming to put a person on the moon before the end of this decade.

Why is the mission important?

The so-called dark side of the moon, which is invisible from Earth, is believed to have great potential for research as its craters are less covered by ancient lava flows than the near side.

Scientists say material collected from the far side of the moon may help in studying how it was formed.

The mission was widely hailed in China, with Chinese state news agency Xinhua describing it as "an unprecedented feat in human lunar exploration history."

Ge Ping, the mission's spokesperson, said analyzing the collected samples would allow scientists "to deepen research on the formation and evolutionary history of the moon."

It can also offer insights into "the origin of the solar system ... laying an improved foundation for later exploration missions," he added.

China launches unprecedented moon mission 02:13

What is China's Chang'e-6 probe?

The probe's 53-day mission began on May 3. On Sunday, it touched down in the moon's immense South Pole-Aitken Basin, which the CNSA says is one of the largest known impact craters in the solar system.

According to the Chinese agency, Chang'e-6 faced a challenge of high temperature, as well as lack of direct communications with ground stations on Earth.

The probe relied instead on relay satellite Queqiao-2, which was put into orbit in April for communications.

To collect samples, the probe used a drill to gather material under the surface and a robotic arm to grab specimens above the surface, according to Xinhua.

The probe's predecessor, Chang'e-5, retrieved samples from the near side of the moon.

fb/nm (AFP, AP, Reuters)

Chang'e 6: What's in store for China-EU space cooperation?

Mu Cui

DW

June 3, 2024

China's Chang'e-6 lunar probe highlights the giant strides China is making in space exploration. The ESA has supplied instruments for the mission, but there is concern this cooperation won't be possible in future.

Scientists expect the Chang'e-6 mission will help answer key questions about the early evolution of the solar system

Image: Jin Liwang/Xinhua News Agency/picture alliance

Chang'e-6: Is geopolitics harming China-EU lunar mission?  03:45

"People were there on the beach. It was really very exciting to see the launch, and to see the expectation from everybody for this mission. That was really something wonderful for a scientist to see," said Olivier Gasnault.

He was referring to the launch of China's Chang'e-6 lunar probe on May 3 from the southern Chinese island province of Hainan.

Its mission was to land on the moon's far side and collect samples that scientists expect will help answer key questions about the early evolution of the solar system.

Gasnault, together with his colleagues at the French Institute of Astrophysics and Planetology (IRAP) in Toulouse, developed a radon detector — a device that measures radioactive gases and radiation — for Chang'e-6.

On Sunday, after several maneuvers, the landing module touched down in a huge crater known as the South Pole-Aitken Basin, the China National Space Administration said.

It's the second Chinese mission to land on the far side of the moon, the first being Chang'e-4, which landed there five years ago and still remains in operation.

China launches unprecedented moon mission 02:13

Detecting radon on lunar surface

Scientists believe rock samples from the southern polar region of the moon could reveal insights into the early history of the solar system.

Also, within the South Pole-Aitken Basin, there are numerous permanently shadowed regions that are thought to contain ice, which is a valuable resource for future space exploration, as it could be used as a source of drinking water as well as to produce fuel and oxygen, among other uses.

Although the French radon detector does not search for water directly, the knowledge gained during the mission should help a great deal.

Gasnault showed DW a replica of the radon detector at his lab. Equipped with eight dish-shaped sensors, the "DORN" (Detector of Outgassing Radon) device is about the same size as a standard household microwave.

Radon, a radioactive noble gas, is a chemical element found in rocks. On the moon, the gas is continuously produced in the lunar soil, the so-called regolith, by the decay of uranium. DORN will allow scientists to study the concentration of radon present on the Moon's surface.

The detector is equipped with several sensors for this purpose, said Romain Mathon, an engineer who helped develop DORN.

"We needed to remain in the mass and volume envelope which was allocated by our Chinese partners," he added.

Is India winning the new space race?  49:44

Close cooperation between European and Chinese space agencies

DORN is not the only European scientific measuring device in the Chang'e-6 mission.

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Swedish Institute of Space Physics also deployed a detector for negatively charged ions to gain valuable information about the interaction between solar wind and the lunar surface.

"We used instrumentation technology that had a high maturity, with a lot of experience in developing very similar fly hardware. The developing time for this instrument was very fast by our standards, usually we would take quite some more time," James Carpenter, ESA's head of planetary science research, told DW

Mathon, the engineer, stressed that it was a challenge to meet the deadlines set by the Chinese side, as everything had to be completed between 2019 and 2022, despite the difficulties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Geopolitical concerns

However, ESA fears that increasing geopolitical tensions could jeopardize future space cooperation with China.

Karl Bergquist, head of ESA's international relations department, has been coordinating the ever-intensifying European-Chinese cooperation in space since the early 1990s.

There has been closer scientific as well as interpersonal links, he said.

However, he added, "there are much more geopolitical tensions today than just eight or nine years ago. So there are more and more restrictions."

He cited cooperation on the manned space program as an example. There had already been several joint astronaut training programs between ESA and the Chinese space agency.

But they have de facto been put on hold "due to export controls by third countries," Bergquist said.

New space - The next economic frontier  42:36

This is because the US bans cooperation with the Chinese in space technologies and exploration, he noted.

"We in Europe will use a lot of US components that we use in our missions. And these are components that we can use here in Europe. But of course we cannot export."

Even the unmanned European-Chinese missions could be at risk if Beijing expands its cooperation with Russia, Bergquist said.

"After the Russian attack on Ukraine, there are a whole set of EU sanctions imposed on cooperation with Russia. Then there is the International Lunar Research Station, which is a Sino-Russian initiative," the ESA official said.

If the Chang'e-7 or Chang'e-8 mission is part of the ILRS, it will be "very difficult or actually impossible for Europe to cooperate," he added.

ESA planetary expert Carpenter, nevertheless, still sees no problem in collaborating with Chinese scientists, with whom he has also built up good friendships.

"It's really fantastic to see how China's lunar program has grown and become world class. We feel privileged and happy to be part of it. We are also interested in further cooperation exploring the solar system."

This article was originally written in German.

BSW: Germany's new populists challenge the far-right AfD

Ben Knight

DW

June 3, 2024

Sahra Wagenknecht, former socialist Left Party parliamentary leader and staunch populist, is now running with a new party named after herself. Analysts say the far-right AfD should be most worried.



https://p.dw.com/p/4UtyL

Sahra Wagenknecht is left-wing on economic issues, but closer to the far-right on issues like immigration and gender diversity

Image: Focke Strangmann/dpa/picture-alliance

When prominent left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht announced she was founding her own party last year, it was — some said — the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) that had the most cause for concern.

Political analysts have been arguing that the unique position of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — left-wing on economic issues but closer to the far-right on issues like immigration and gender diversity — may pose a threat to the AfD. The European election on June 9 will be one of the first big tests of that theory.

At a press conference in Berlin in late April, Wagenknecht explained her own phenomenon in characteristically well-honed yet simple terms. "It's clear that we have a government that is very unpopular," she told a group of reporters. "The German economy is in a crisis … we've had above-average inflation, and the government parties have dropped very severely. And of course, that has led to the AfD and the far-right of the spectrum being strengthened a lot."

Media attention is guaranteed whenever Sahra Wagenknecht enters a stage

Image: John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images

Her decision to split from the Left Party, whose parliamentary group she once led, decimated the socialist party's Bundestag representation and may have destroyed it as a significant political force in the future — 10 of the Left Party's 38 Bundestag members have defected to the BSW.

The reason she felt she had to move, Wagenknecht said, was because the old socialist party was "no longer reaching the people who are dissatisfied, who want a serious alternative."

She also indirectly admitted that she is fishing in the same waters as the AfD. "We believe, and this is also shown in many surveys, that a large share AfD voters are protest voters," she said. "They're not right-wingers, and they don't support far-right positions … they feel like they're not being listened to, and they aren't being listened to — it's not just a feeling, it's actually true."

Forcing peace on Ukraine

Though she has ruled out forming a coalition with the far-right, she does share some policies with the AfD: The BSW opposes arms exports to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, and it also wants to de-militarize the EU and remove US nuclear weapons from the continent.

It also wants a diplomatic solution in the war in Ukraine, though Wagenknecht remains vague on how exactly a diplomatic solution might be achieved since the aggressor Russia has shown little inclination to join peace talks. At the press conference in Berlin in April, Wagenknecht said that the West could offer to stop arming Ukraine if Russia agreed to an immediate cease-fire — which would presumably force Ukraine to cede the territory that Russia has invaded.

In 2024, Carnival floats poked fun at AfD leader Alice Weidel and BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht, showing them as sitting in the front of a car steered by Vladimir Putin

Image: Arne Dedert/picture alliance/dpa

The Wagenknecht phenomenon

In recent years, perhaps no German political figure has been a more painful thorn for both allies and adversaries than Wagenknecht. Well before last year's split, she had become a focus of bitterness among Left Party colleagues, who were tired of the media attention she received and her defiance of party discipline.

Wagenknecht often criticized her party leadership for pandering to what she calls "lifestyle leftists" — whose policies of inclusion for marginalized communities, she argues, are themselves marginalizing the Left Party's core voters, especially the working classes in eastern Germany.

Wagenknecht has now grown particularly popular in eastern Germany. A poll in May by the research institute INSA in Thuringia, for instance, put the BSW at 16%, way above its national average of 7%. (Perhaps it is no coincidence that Thuringia's AfD leader Björn Höcke once invited Wagenknecht to defect to his party.)

This, according to BSW Bundestag member Christian Leye, proves that the AfD fears her more than anyone else in the German political landscape. "Many people rightly feel that the government is not making policies for working people: Everything is getting more and more expensive, war and sanctions policies have fueled inflation, and public infrastructure is in terrible shape," Leye told DW last year.

Leye's analysis chimes in with the work of Sarah Wagner, a postdoctoral researcher in political science at Mannheim University who studied Wagenknecht's rise. Wagner found that the politician's popularity rivals that of AfD leaders even among supporters of the far-right party itself.

"What we're seeing is that the immigration issue is very strongly associated with Wagenknecht," Wagner told DW. "Nevertheless, her potential is not limited to people who are critical of immigration; she is also getting support from people who are generally conservative — for example, people who are critical of climate protection or against the rights of LGBTQI communities."

Wagner says that much of the AfD's current support is not particularly committed and so could be won over. "They are voters who are dissatisfied with democracy, who are conservative, and while many of them might not feel necessarily comfortable voting for the AfD, they don't see any other party they could vote for," she said.

At the BSW founding conference Sahra Wagenknecht got full support from her party's members — including her husband, former SPD chairman Oskar Lafontaine (r)

Image: Kay Nietfeld/dpa/picture alliance

Conservative society plus socialist economy?  (AKA FASCISM)

Some analysts say Wagenknecht is offering something that has never been seen before in Germany: Conservative social values allied with socialist economic values. "We can't really say exactly how many people align themselves with left-conservative values," Wagner said. "But what we can say is that it's a significant group. We have never seen this combination in a party in Germany before."

The closest analogy to the BSW internationally might be the Socialist Party (SP) in the Netherlands, which has also taken a tougher line on immigration, or the Communist Party of Greece (KKE), which voted against a bill institutionalizing same-sex marriage.
Wagenknecht's future — a break from her past

Wagenknecht's departure was also momentous for her political career. Born in 1969 to a German mother and an Iranian father in Jena, Thuringia, Wagenknecht spent virtually her entire adult life in the party now called the Left Party — including its original iteration, the Social Unity Party of Germany (SED), the communist party that governed East Germany.

Analysts have already been mapping out Wagenknecht's battle plan: A run in this week's European election will be followed by full-blown campaigns in three eastern German states in fall 2024: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Much of Germany's political future could depend on her success or failure.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

This article was first published on August 11, 2023. It was updated on June 3, 2024 to reflect the latest developments.

Lithuanian President Nauseda: 

A socialist and moralist

Long thought to be a lightweight, newly reelected President Gitanas Nauseda is now Lithuania's most popular politician. An independent, he's economically liberal but holds conservative views on LGBTQ issues and abortion.

Gitanas Nauseda won Lithuania's presidential election in May 2024

Image: Ints Kalnins/REUTERS

The image of Gitanas Nauseda as "tall and handsome" became something of a meme on social media back in 2019 when he won the Lithuanian presidential election for the first time.

But it was a bit of a double-edged compliment. As the chief economist of a bank for many years, he was viewed by many as outwardly impressive but politically insignificant.

Five years later, the 60-year-old from the port city of Klaipeda is Lithuania's most popular politician. On May 26, he was reelected in a runoff for a second term . His opponent — as in 2019 — was the current Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte of the center-right Homeland Union (TS-LKD), who conceded soon after the vote count began.
Lithuania's president is popular and independent

"Nauseda has benefited in part from the fact that the government under Simonyte is unpopular," said political scientist Lauras Bielinis from Kaunas University. The president has repeatedly criticized the cabinet, something that many voters like, she added.

The coalition government, made up of the TS-LKD and two liberal parties, managed to lead the country out of the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, salaries and pensions have been rising, but so have the price of goods and rent. Most citizens have blamed the government for this increase.

The conservative government under Ingrida Simonyte (right) is unpopular

Image: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS

Nauseda has also taken a stand on social issues. Bielinis said the president has positioned himself as a head of state who is free of political parties, often using his speeches over the last five years to convey the message of working for the common good.

The president was able to connect with "the most diverse strata of society" in both urban and rural areas, said Vilnius University political scientist Ramunas Vilpisauskas. Only in the capital, Vilnius, do politicians from the conservative TS-LKD and liberal parties have more support than the head of state.

"Nauseda's views on the economy are actually left wing and he advocates a welfare state. But when it comes to morality, he is more to the right," said Vilpisauskas.

Catholic and anti-LGBTQ+

Nauseda holds conservative Catholic views on abortion and LGBTQ+ issues. When representatives of the coalition parties introduced a bill on same-sex partnerships to parliament a few years ago, they met with protest from parts of the population. Nauseda supported the opponents, albeit cautiously.

Critics have said Nauseda has kept that issue off the agenda for many years. "If it comes up again, Nauseda will seek a compromise, but we can't expect him to make any concessions," said Bielinis.

Polls predict that the ruling alliance of conservatives and liberals will be defeated in parliamentary elections this fall, with a new coalition of social democrats and the conservative-green Farmers and Greens Union taking power.

Observers believe Nauseda will more easily find common ground with these lawmakers on economic and social issues. Unlike most European social democratic parties, Lithuanian social democrats and farmers are quite conservative in their views on morality.

For Lithuania, Warsaw is closer than Brussels

In Lithuania, the prime minister administers domestic policy, while the president deals with foreign affairs. Both politicians and the public largely agree that Russian President Vladimir Putin and China are enemies, that the United States is the country's most important ally and that NATO membership guarantees security. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia eight years later, support for Kyiv has been a cross-party consensus issue in Lithuanian politics.

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center), and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda met in Kyiv in June 2023

Image: Sergei Supinsky/AFP

Immediately after his first inauguration in 2019, Nauseda took an unexpected step, making his first official visit not to Brussels to shore up European Union relations, as his predecessors had done, but to Warsaw to meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

The two countries have no shortage of bilateral ties. For two centuries, until the early modern period, Poland-Lithuania existed as a joint republic. Between the world wars, Poland occupied the Lithuanian region of Vilnius, and there are still disputes over the rights of the Polish minority in Lithuania.

Nauseda has attached great importance to ongoing cooperation with Poland, something that paid off when Russia invaded Ukraine. Today, Warsaw considers the two countries' security to be inextricably linked.

Nauseda: good relations with Trump and NATO

Nauseda is patient and persistent in his relationship with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. And like Simonyte's cabinet, he wants a Bundeswehr brigade stationed in Lithuania as soon as possible to increase the country's importance on NATO's eastern flank.

Germany to station 4,000 troops in Lithuania  02:09

When it comes to US relations, Nauseda has found common ground with both former President Donald Trump and current incumbent Joe Biden. Should Trump return to the White House, Lithuania may find favor with Trump, as the country spends more than 2.5% of its gross domestic product on defense, exceeding the agreed 2% target for NATO partners frequently referenced by Trump.

Taking on antisemites and Putin supporters

In terms of domestic policy, Nauseda will face major challenges in his second term of office. For the first time since Lithuania regained its independence over 30 years ago, a politician who has expressed antisemitic views, Remigijus Zemaitaitis, has entered the country's political stage.

Zemaitaitis received 9.2% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, and candidates from his right-wing nationalist party Dawn of Nemunas could enter parliament in the fall.

And then there is the pro-Kremlin presidential candidate Eduardas Vaitkus, who has called for the country to abandon its support for Ukraine and for Vilnius to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and reach an agreement with Putin. He achieved an average of 7.3% in the election. However, around Vilnius, where many Poles live, as well as in the predominantly Russian-speaking city of Visaginas, Vaitkus received more than 40% support.

"Unfortunately, a section of our society — fortunately not the majority — has not understood and accepted the political and social changes of the past three decades," said political scientist Bielinis.

Nauseda has already taken a stand on the success of Zemaitaitis and Vaitkus, saying their voters are "our citizens" and they must be addressed.

"That's exactly the job of the president, to communicate with people and convince them," he said.

This article was originally written in Russian.

Far-right AfD appears as strongest German party on TikTok

Politicians and figures linked to the far-right Alternative for Germany party use TikTok as a "parallel universe" to spread extremism, a study says. Meanwhile, other parties show "weak performance" on the platform.

AfD's popularity among young German voters have increased in recent years

Image: Janine Schmitz/ picture alliance

DW

June 4,2024

Of all the parties represented in the German parliament the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) uses the youth social media platform TikTok the most, according to a study published Tuesday.

"We are observing masses of openly right-wing extremist symbols and codes on TikTok," said Deborah Schnabel, the director of the Anne Frank Educational Center, which conducted the analysis.

"Time and again, accounts from the AfD or from the party's environment are involved" in such content, Schnabel said.

AfD party leader Alice Weidel was one of the top five political influencers on TikTok in Germany, the study noted. AfD politician Ulrich Siegmund of the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt was in first place with more than 400,000 followers.

Alice Weidel has nearly 300,000 followers on TikTok

Image: Guido Schiefer/IMAGO

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's account has around 260,000 followers, and Robert Habeck's, the vice chancellor, has less than 30,000.

'Parallel universe'

The authors of the 62-page study warned that AfD politicians and right-wing extremists use the platform as a "parallel universe" to spread their ideology and garner support from young people.

"On TikTok, the AfD presents itself as a caretaker and champion of young people — democratic parties have not yet found any good answers to this," said Schnabel.

For example, the authors said Weidel is often shown on TikTok as spontaneous and funny, promoting a different image than that portrayed in traditional media.

A major poll published in April showed that the AfD was the favorite party among young people aged 14 to 29, with a projected 22% of the vote — double its score just a year ago.

German intelligence classifies AfD youth wing as 'extremist'  03:04

'Weak performance' from other parties

Schnabel noted that AfD member of parliament Sebastian Münzenmaier from Mainz, for example, has almost 80,000 followers on the platform. In contrast, the center-left Social Democrats' (SPD) secretary-general, Kevin Kühnert, has around 11,000.

While many politicians and government figures have TikTok accounts, Schnabel said they must rethink their communication strategies, noting their "weak performance."

Putting explanatory videos and educational content on Tiktok is not enough, she said.

"Young people also want to be respected in their aesthetic attitudes and addressed on an emotional level," Schnabel added. She called for media skills and political education to be given a higher priority in schools.

fb/rc (dpa, KNA, EPD)

Belgian election tests limits of media's far-right boycott

Ella Joyner in Brussels

DW

June 4, 2024

The media in Belgium's Francophone region tightly control coverage of the far right. Experts say it has kept extremists at bay. But is it fair? And can it last?

Tom Van Grieken's right-wing populist Vlaams Belang party is likely to win big in Belgium's parliamentary elections

Image: Nicolas Maeterlinck/dpa/picture alliance

From Austria to Italy, France and the Netherlands, the ascending star of the far right in swaths of Europe has been the standout political story for much of the past 12 months.

Tiny, often-overlooked Belgium is no exception, with the once-fringe Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest) party set to storm national polls on June 9. Advocating, among other things, for the secession of the northern region Flanders and an "immigration stop," VB is projected to take the most seats of any party: 26 out of 150, according to calculations by news outlet Politico, up from just three in 2014.

Except that's only half the story, and the other half changes everything.

Belgium, established almost 200 years ago as a mishmash federal state, is a tale of two countries: French-speaking Wallonia in the south and Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north (Brussels is its own little island in Flanders). And in the Francophone south, it is not the success of the far right that is the story, but the absence of VB or a similar force.
Far right has no 'direct voice' in Wallonia

If you turn on Wallonia's public broadcaster RTBF, you will almost never see far-right politicians making the case for closed borders or lamenting the downfall of Western civilization on live television. Most Belgian Francophone journalists enforce what's known as the "cordon sanitaire" (French for protective or sanitary barrier). Their colleagues to the north in Flanders do not ― since the rule does not exist there.

"The rule is that the far right should not be given a direct voice, a direct live access to media," explained Maria Udrescu, a journalist with the French-language Belgian daily newspaper La Libre. "You can quote far-right politicians for instance, but those quotes always have to be put in a context."

Another reason you won't see any far-right politicians live on RTBF is that there simply aren't big players to interview. Udrescu said it's like asking "Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Is there no far right in Wallonia because there is the 'cordon sanitaire', or is the 'cordon sanitaire' easy to hold because there is no far right in Wallonia?"

For Benjamin Biard, a researcher at the Center for Research and Sociopolitical Information (CRISP) in Belgium, this partial media boycott is an important factor in the absence of a powerful far right in Wallonia, but it's certainly not the whole story.

"It reduces visibility," he said. "A lot of people simply don't know about the parties. Because they do exist, trying to put forward candidates and run for election."

If you look at survey data, many people in Wallonia appear to hold similar views to far-right voters in Flanders, France and Germany. There are plenty who think, for example, "that immigration increases problems of security or insecurity, that immigration impoverishes the country's economic and cultural life," said Biard.

Fears of populist surge ahead of 2024 EU elections  03:00


In theory Wallonia ― once Belgium's industrial heartland but long in relative decline compared with populous, prosperous Flanders ― should be fertile ground for nationalism.

"It's a question of the electoral offer," said Biard.

Emergent far-right parties have been plagued by internal divisions, a lack of charismatic leaders as well as a highly organized regional anti-fascist movement, quick to protest and disrupt any gathering.

Questions of fairness

The 'cordon sanitaire', first introduced by RTBF some 30 years ago after a massive electoral surge for VB's predecessor, Vlaams Blok, applies to any extremist group that espouses illiberal ideology. In practice, it has only really applied to the far right, a fact that hasn't escaped criticism.

"Francophone Belgium is the European laboratory for new authoritarianism," Mathieu Bock-Cote, a prominent Francophone conservative commentator, wrote on social media platform X in March amid debate about applying the rule to the second-largest party in Flanders, conservative-nationalist NV-A, as well.

"The cordon sanitaire is not democratic," Alain Destexhe, a former Belgian senator and member of Brussels Regional Parliament, wrote in the small right-wing outlet Pan the same month. "Far from fighting censorship, Belgian Francophone media proudly declare themselves openly hostile to political forces they decree are anti-democratic."

Belgian journalist Udrescu acknowledged there is debate about fairness.

"It's not an exact science," she said. "We've had many questions. Like should it be applied to the far left too? And what about the N-VA?"

Political quarantine, but for how long?

For people in Wallonia, and indeed the Flemish far right, the problem isn't just Francophone media restrictions. After a 1991 electoral breakthrough for the Vlaams Blok, the major traditional parties, including the N-VA, teamed up and pledged not to govern in coalition with the group.

That means that even though Vlaams Belang looks set to emerge triumphant in the June 9 election, leader Tom Van Grieken almost certainly won't become prime minister. Belgian government coalitions tend to be broad and complicated, reflecting the fragmented nature of a country with several parallel political systems. As well as Flanders and Wallonia, there is also the Brussels region, plus a tiny German-speaking community in the east.

Van Grieken feels treated unfairly

Image: Nicolas Maeterlinck/dpa/picture alliance

For now, VB politicians in Flanders are hemmed in by the political cooperation boycott.

"If Flemish Interest is the largest party, the others can no longer hide behind the undemocratic cordon," Van Grieken said in a written statement this month, throwing the gauntlet down for N-VA in particular.
Wallonia holds the line ― for now

Meanwhile, in Wallonia, the traditional center-left Parti Socialiste and center-right Mouvement Reformateur parties still top the polls. But a new self-declared "patriotic" party, the extreme right Chez Nous (Our Home) entered the scene in 2021, and won the initial backing of France's National Rally and Vlaams Belang.

Chez Nous is reportedly very popular on social media, though it's hard to predict whether it will win any seats. According to one poll published by Le Soir newspaper in late 2023, about 1% of respondents in Wallonia and Brussels said they would vote Chez Nous.

In the view of political scientist Biard, the reason the media coverage rule has held so far in Wallonia is that it was institutionalized before the far right gained a strong foothold.

"If tomorrow we have a far right that is gaining a certain traction in society, it will obviously be much harder to keep it out of the media," he said.

For now, the rules are holding, but that doesn't mean the political landscape won't change, he stressed.

"I think that in other ways, faster than we can anticipate, a far right will eventually develop in Wallonia too," he said.

Edited by: Carla Bleiker

Ella Joyner Correspondent@EllaRoseJoyner

IRAQ

'Heatflation' in Middle East: How high will food prices go?

Cathrin Schaer | Emad Hassan

DW

June 4,2024

Extreme heat, or "heatflation," is raising food prices everywhere. Researchers say that in the Middle East and other hotter regions, it will be even worse and negative impacts will be greater.

Over the past year, tomato prices in Iraq and Morocco have tripled due to heat and extreme weather

Mohamed Messara/dpa/picture alliance

In Iraq, most people eat tomatoes with a meal at least once a day, sometimes more. Which is why, when tomato prices go up, people really start complaining, says Kholoud Salman, an Iraqi journalist based in Baghdad.

"Tomato prices went from 750 Iraqi dinars [$0.56, €0.52] for a kilo to 2,000 or even 2,500 last summer," Salman told DW. "People start posting complaints about it on Facebook. Last year I read a post by a young guy, who said that tomatoes were so expensive, his mother was guarding their refrigerator!"

Prices for food like tomatoes regularly change at local markets depending on how the crop has been impacted by weather or drought, Salman notes.

Tomatoes are particularly impacted by heat waves because in Iraq, these are often grown and sold by smallholder farms, who don't have any way of processing or refrigerating the crop. So they need to sell the perishables straight away.

"Thanks to the years of war, Iraq hasn't modernized agricultural production and the marketing of its products," Iraqi economist Mohammad al-Fakhri told DW. "Much is still done in traditional ways and it wastes the time and efforts of the Iraqi farmer."

Prices for tomatoes and watermelons, very popular with Iraqis every summer, change regularly depending on temperatures

 Khalil Dawood/Xinhua/picture alliance

Iraq is not the only Middle Eastern country where climate change is impacting food prices in such an immediate way.

Last September, onion prices in Egypt tripled in price to 35 Egyptian pounds ($0.74, €0.68), compared to earlier in the year. Egyptian officials said onion traders had caused the problem and they temporarily stopped onion exports. But onion growers themselves said a heat wave had reduced the harvest and the price rise was primarily due to this, alongside increased costs of production.

In Morocco last year, tomato growers suffered similar problems when an unexpected frost arrived after an unseasonably early spring. Tomato crops had blossomed too soon and the cold killed off new fruits. So where a kilogram of tomatoes previously cost 5 Moroccan dirhams ($0.50, €0.46) at local markets, it more than doubled to 12 dirhams. The Moroccan government then placed a partial ban on tomato exports.

This year, after the export ban was relaxed, tomato prices went up again and one local grower told Morocco's Journal24 media outlet that local farmers were giving up tomatoes because of the increased costs involved and the water needed.

Today a kilo of tomatoes costs 18 dirhams, Al Tayeb Ais, an economic expert from Rabat, told DW. For locals, "this is huge," he explained. "Because of the rise in prices, low-income families were no longer able to get the fruits, vegetables and meat they needed."

In Egypt, one of the world's biggest onion exporters, local media reported how onions were now "out of reach" for ordinary people

Mohamed Abdel Hamid/AA/picture alliance

What is 'heatflation'?

All of these price rises come under the category of "heatflation," a phenomenon the World Economic Forum defines as steeply "rising food prices caused by extreme heat."

"There is no question that heatflation exists," Ulrich Volz, an economics professor and director of the Center for Sustainable Finance at SOAS, University of London, told DW. "The empirical evidence is clear that climate change is having increasing impacts on agricultural output and food prices around the world."

"Heatflation is very much a reality in the region," a spokesperson for the United Nation's World Food Program in the Middle East added. "As the climate continues to change, vulnerabilities are likely to intensify, further compromising the ability of the poorest communities to meet their basic food and nutrition needs."

In a study published in March, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank looked at how heatflation might impact the cost of food in the future.

Fig. 1: The cumulative marginal effect of temperature shocks on food and headline inflation.

a A schematic outline of the mechanisms via which temperature shocks may impact inflation via agricultural productivity and food prices. The results of fixed-effects panel regressions from over 27,000 observations of monthly price indices and weather fluctuations worldwide over the period 1996-2021 demonstrate persistent impacts on food (b) and headline (c) prices from a one-off increase in monthly average temperature. Lines indicate the cumulative marginal effects of a one-off 1 C increase in monthly temperature on month-on-month inflation rates, evaluated at different baseline temperatures (colour) reflecting the non-linearity of the response by baseline temperatures which differ across both seasons and regions (see methods for a specific explanation of the estimation of these marginal effects from the regression models). Error bars show the 95% confidence intervals having clustered standard errors by country. Full regression results are shown in Tables S2 & S3. Icons are obtained from Flaticon (https://www.flaticon.com/) using work from Febrian Hidayat, Vectors Tank and Freepik.

The study investigated prices of food and other goods in 121 countries since 1996. Researchers concluded that by 2035, climate change could be pushing food prices up by between around 1% and 3% every year. By 2060, it could be increasing them by as much as 4.3% annually. And most of that increase would come from heat-related issues rather than excess rain or flooding, they wrote.

The researchers' estimates also showed heatflation was likely to have an even more dramatic affect in regions that were already hot, such as the Middle East, Africa and South America.

A few inflation percentage points may be a lot when it comes to European or North American food prices. For example, euro zone inflation was at 2.4% on average, during March and April. But in some Middle Eastern countries, overall — or headline — inflation is already in double and even triple digits. For example, in Egypt headline inflation is currently running at over 30%. Food price inflation is at over 40%.

Tomatoes are a common ingredient in dishes in the Middle East

Image: monticello/Zoonar/picture alliance

No easy answers to tackle 'heatflation'

Other factors beyond heatflation cause the kinds of inflation rates seen in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Turkey, an April paper published by the International Monetary Fund explained. They include "budget deficits, high levels of public debt, currency devaluation, and dangerous levels of inflation" as well as conflict and war, and the dependency of some countries on food imports like wheat.

"Of course, there will always be other factors impacting on inflation, including macroeconomic developments and the exchange rate," London University's Volz told DW. "But food price inflation may indeed become more important."

For the time being, experts say it's important to acknowledge heatflation because rising food prices usually most affect the most vulnerable people in low-income households. Lack of nutrition can cause long-lasting developmental problems for children. Climbing food prices have caused all kinds of social unrest in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, just as with the topic of global climate change in general, there are no easy solutions to remedy heatflation.

"To prevent the worst from happening, Middle Eastern and North African countries, especially the oil producers, need to play their part in climate mitigation rather than obstructing it, as has been the case in the past," Volz argues. "Countries need to invest much more in adaptation and resilience in the agricultural sector, conduct climate risk analyses and develop suitable adaptation strategies."

How much heatflation affects the Middle East in the future, and therefore how high prices will rise, will depend on various factors but one of the most important will be how much countries invest in those kinds of solutions, he concluded.

Edited by: Rob Mudge
Cathrin Schaer Author for the Middle East desk.

END THE EMBARGO

Why did the US open up banking to Cuba's private sector?

Andreas Knobloch

DW

June 3, 2024

As Cuba faces a social and economic crisis, the United States has enabled more financial support for private businesses in the country in a boost to Internet-based services and financial services.

Private enterprise in sectors such as retail and transportation has improved the sanctions-hit Cuban economy

Image: Ismael Francisco/AP Photo/picture alliance


The US Treasury's regulatory amendment to the so-called Cuban Assets Control Regulations, announced on May 28, has caused quite a stir in Washington and beyond. For the first time since the revolution in the 1950s, Cuban entrepreneurs can open a bank account in the United States and access it from Cuba.

The changes are intended "to promote internet freedom in Cuba, support independent Cuban entrepreneurs in the private sector, and expand access to certain financial services for the Cuban population," the Treasury Department said in a statement.

Cuba's private sector has grown significantly since the government in Havana established a legal form for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in 2021. Over 11,000 private companies, ranging from mom-and-pop shops to transportation and construction firms, have been founded since then. These newly established SMEs have notably improved the island's supply of goods through their imports.

Despite a policy of economic opening, Cubans are still suffering from food shortages and electricity cuts

Measure to stem Cuban migration?

The Biden administration's new measures will allow Cuban entrepreneurs to open bank accounts in the US and use US-based social media platforms, online payment sites, video conferencing, and cloud-based services. This means they can conduct money transactions through online payment platforms, removing a significant hurdle.

Additionally, the new regulation enables Cuban software developers to offer their apps for download in Apple or Google app stores, which was previously impossible due to the decades-long US blockade of the Communist-ruled country.

Cuba ends subsidies amid lack of foreign currency  01:56

The Treasury Department is also reversing a Donald Trump-era measure that prohibited US banks from processing transactions between Cuba and banks in third countries, known as U-turn transactions in the banking industry. This change will facilitate money transfers for Cuban nationals as long as neither the sender nor the recipient is subject to US law.

However, direct banking with the US remains prohibited, meaning that financing, investments, and payments must continue to be routed through third countries.

"Providing support for Cuba's private sector will help to stem irregular migration from the island by creating more economic opportunity," the US daily Miami Herald quoted an unidentified US government official.

US businesses with links to the Cuban government or military entities remain restricted, and Cuban companies with ties to the government will also not benefit from the new rules, the source said.

Resistance building in the US

According to US media reports, the Treasury Department's measures were ready as early as September but faced resistance in Congress. Republican lawmakers expressed concerns that there is no free enterprise on the island, as the government still controls the private sector.

Cuban-American Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar immediately criticized the measures, saying on X (formerly Twitter) that the Biden administration's decision would "make a mockery of American law, considering no progress has been made toward freedom on the Island and repression has intensified."

In Cuba, meanwhile, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said on the same social media platform that the US measures were "limited" and did not reverse the impact of the economic blockade imposed by that country on the island."

"These measures aim to divide Cuban society," he added.

Skepticism prevails

Cuban economist Ricardo Torres from the American University in Washington, D.C. described the measures as "positive steps" that align with "the changing reality in Cuba." He told DW that sectors like software development would benefit and that easing financial transactions was also a positive move.

"But there's a difference between intention and practice," Torres cautioned, pointing out that US banks and businesses might want to protect themselves against potential future legal claims since there is "no certainty that a future US administration will maintain the measures."

A young entrepreneur from Havana, who wished to remain anonymous, expressed cautious optimism.

"It would be a significant step," she told DW, referring to the possibility of opening a US bank account and using online payment services. "But we will see how it works in practice. Let's wait and see how it develops."

This article was originally written in German.

Grayson Murray's death poses golf mental health questions

Jonathan Harding

DW

June 3, 2024

The tragic death by suicide of professional golfer Grayson Murray has started a conversation around the mental health provisions of individual sports like golf.

Four months after winning on the PGA Tour, Grayson Murray died by suicide

Image: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Network/IMAGO

In January 2024, Grayson Murray won the Sony Open in Hawaii after a birdie on the first playoff hole.

"My life is so good right now," said Murray, who has openly discussed his struggles with depression and alcohol addiction. "I wouldn't trade anything. I have a beautiful fiancee. I have beautiful parents. I have beautiful nephews, siblings. Everyone in my life right now who is close to me who has been through the struggles with me, it's all a team effort."

Four months later, one day after Murray had walked off the green of a PGA event in Texas, Murray died by suicide. He was 30 years old.

PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan confirmed grief counselors would be available at the upcoming PGA Tour, and Korn Ferry Tour events, but the tragic news has also started a conversation around the mental health provisions of individual sports like golf.

Proactive approach required

Back in 2021, Murray slammed the PGA Tour in a since-deleted tweet that criticized the competition for not giving him the right resources to address his anxiety, depression and trouble with alcohol.

"The PGA Tour didn't force me to drink, but the PGA Tour never gave me help," he posted. Murray added that in his five years on the tour, he had only ever received the following response from the Player Advisory Council: "We will get back to you."

Monahan said he had called Murray right away to try and improve the Tour's mental health services.

The PGA Tour declined to comment on DW's request about what plans it has to update its mental health services to players. In 2021, it provided details of the mental health services offered to its players in Golf Digest, citing the provision of "mental well-being benefits" for players and their families as well as having an assistance program that introduced mental health specialists to those who needed it.

In the context of modern sports, particularly in the US, where both the NFL and the NBA have mandated hours for mental health and well-being for their players and staff, this tragic situation might force sports like golf to take a more proactive step.

Renowned sports psychologist and former professional golfer Dan Abrahams says part of the problem is golf's history with psychology largely connected to performance. Now, as a result of a generational shift, greater access to information and recognition of what other sports are doing, the focus is shifting to mental health and well-being.

"[Golf] tends to be performance psychology," Abrahams tells DW. "And yet the world is now honing in on mental health and well-being. And I think both are very, very relevant, especially in professional sport."

Landscape changing

In individual sports, it's much harder to mandate mental health than in team sports. Sports like golf, which have seemingly lacked psychological help beyond performance for years, now face the challenge of modernizing support for their employees. The landscape is shifting beyond the need to cater just for the body. Abrahams believes the leading figures in high-pressured, solo sports like golf will now be asking whether now is the time to provide provide practitioners at events that enable players to access professional guidance from a well-being and mental health perspective.

"I think these tours have a responsibility to create what we might call a psychologically informed environment where all of the employees, from tournament officers or players themselves, all have the opportunity to seek a counselor who will be onsite. That can make a difference," Abrahams says. "This is the evolution of how we treat sports, how we treat people. This is a more sophisticated approach to human involvement in sports."

Mental health every day

Whether for a week or the entire month, May has long been the time of the year in which awareness around mental health is raised through education, workshops and local events. Abrahams is a big fan of these days and weeks and months because they provide a platform for conversation and intervention, but awareness is just the start. Managing mental health is not a linear process, it's a continuum. It is changing every day and so requires management every day.

"We're human beings, and we are complex creatures living in both complex and complicated worlds. We need to understand every single day, in many respects, requires a degree of mental health and well-being. Every day is a well-being day," Abrahams says.

"We need psychologically informed environments incorporated into cultures, and cultures incorporated into coaching practices. It's an everyday thing and it's not just a day, or week, or a month thing. And that requires a really sophisticated, knowledge-driven form of coaching and it involves everybody."

Grayson Murray was a professional athlete who, as was evident in the statement his parents released and the outpouring in the golf community following his death was loved. He himself said he had turned a corner with his depression and addiction, but that still wasn't enough to save him. His legacy to the sporting world might be that athletes are humans first, but also that every day is a mental health day.

*Editor's note: If you are suffering from serious emotional strain or suicidal thoughts, do not hesitate to seek professional help. 

You can find information on where to find such help, no matter where you live in the world, at this website: https://www.befrienders.org

Edited by: Matt Pearson

Jonathan Harding 

Sports reporter and editor