Monday, October 28, 2024

Opinion | The Social Security scandal Trump doesn’t want you to know about

James Downie
MSNBC
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Butler, Pa. on Oct. 5, 2024.

Here’s another scandal that Donald Trump doesn’t want you to know about, and it doesn’t involve Adolf Hitler, Jeffrey Epstein or Jan. 6. No, this one involves you — specifically, your retirement.

More than 67 million Americans collect Social Security benefits, including roughly 54 million retired workers. Millions more expect — or at least hope — the program will be there when they grow old. Most retirees depend heavily on Social Security for their income; between 10 million and 16 million older Americans would be in poverty without it, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The program disproportionately helps lower-income Americans, women and people of color.

And here’s the scandal: If implemented, Trump’s economic proposals could bankrupt this vital, popular program within six years.

First, a brief explainer: Social Security funds its benefits with payroll taxes on working-age Americans. After a bipartisan funding deal in 1983, the program ran a surplus every year for nearly three decades, building up its trust fund for the retirement of the baby boomers. But in 2021, Social Security started to run a deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the trust fund will run out before 2035. At that point, benefits will immediately shrink by more than 20%, around $400 per month per recipient on average.

This impending crisis, fortunately, is solvable. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed raising revenue by increasing taxes on Americans who make over $400,000 annually. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Social Security Expansion Act — which Harris co-sponsored as a senator — would go even further: Income over $250,000, as well as business and investment income, would become subject to the payroll tax (currently, payroll tax income is capped at $168,000, so even, say, Jeff Bezos pays no taxes on his income beyond that). These adjustments would make the program solvent for decades, benefits would increase by $200 a month and just 7% of Americans would see their taxes go up. And unlike many tax increases, this one is popular with voters.

Trump has not explained how he would keep Social Security solvent. Worse yet, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, every one of Trump’s favorite ideas in this campaign would accelerate Social Security’s time to insolvency and increase the resulting cuts to benefits.

Any list of Trump’s preferred proposals would include: mass deportations of immigrants; large tariffs on all imports; and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. Some of these ideas are quite popular; Harris has even come out for “no tax on tips.” But taken together, these ideas could be disastrous for Social Security’s future.

Ending taxes on benefits, overtime pay and tips would shrink the program’s revenue streams. The massive tariffs would increase inflation — and therefore the program’s cost-of-living adjustments. Mass deportation of immigrants would remove millions of immigrant wage earners who contribute to Social Security (yes, even many undocumented immigrants pay payroll taxes). The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that in combination, these proposals would empty the Social Security trust fund by 2031, four years ahead of the current trajectory and just six years after Trump takes office. And what’s left for retirees would be smaller as well: benefits would shrink by one-third as soon as 2035.

In Trump’s first campaign, he broke with other Republican candidates by promising to “do everything in my power not to touch Social Security.” But as I wrote earlier this year, “when it comes to Social Security … Republicans just can’t help themselves,” and Trump has been around a lot of Republicans for a long time now. When he was president, every one of his budgets proposed cutting Social Security. “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting,” he told CNBC in March. And now his platform is almost purpose-built to run Social Security into the ground.

But it makes sense that Trump would come around on torpedoing a program whose benefits are most important to the poorest Americans. Trump’s “man of the people” image has always been as fake as his tan, and his third run has been the most plutocrat-friendly yet. His 2017 tax cuts, for example, gave windfalls to the wealthiest but saved some scraps for the less well-off. His new platform doesn’t even do that. An analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that Trump’s new tariff and tax cut extensions would only benefit the richest 5% of households, those that make at least $360,000. The top 1% — effectively, the millionaire class — would get an annual tax cut of $36,000. The other 95% of the country would pay more in taxes.

I can’t tell voters whether to prioritize democracy, their freedoms or their pocketbooks. But for all three concerns, the candidate who presents the biggest threat is the same: Donald Trump.

Trump Said He Brought Supplies To Storm-Ravaged Georgia. There’s No Evidence He Did.





S.V. Date
Updated Sat, October 26, 2024 

While Donald Trump took credit for bringing truckloads of supplies to hurricane-ravaged Georgia last month, it appears that the only thing he brought to Valdosta that day was traffic and a first-responder diversion from the relief effort.

“Today I’ve come to Valdosta with large semi-trucks, many of them filled with relief aid, and a tanker truck filled up with gasoline. We have a couple of the big tanker trucks filled up with gasoline,” the coup-attempting former president said Sept. 30 in front of a destroyed furniture store in Valdosta.

Trump’s campaign later sent out a press release headlined, “President Trump Delivers Relief, Support To Hurricane-Ravaged South,” which then stated: “President Trump delivered relief supplies to aid in the hurricane’s devastating aftermath: ‘We have a lot of truckloads of different items, from oil to water to all sorts of equipment that’s going to help ... We’re here today to stand in complete solidarity with the people of Georgia and with all of those suffering.’”

In reality, those trucks were brought by Samaritan’s Purse, a charity run by the pastor Franklin Graham. They were already there by the time Trump flew to the local airport and then rode into town in his Secret Service motorcade, according to residents.

That motorcade and the increased security needed at Trump’s photo opportunity required 42 officers from the Georgia State Patrol, according to documents from that agency obtained by HuffPost.

A smaller number of Valdosta police officers and deputies from the Lowndes County Sheriff’s Office also provided traffic control at the town’s intersections during Trump’s visit, said Mayor Scott James Matheson. He acknowledged that those officers could not continue with relief and cleanup efforts while they were detailed to Trump’s visit.

Not wanting to interfere with cleanup efforts, in fact, was the reason President Joe Biden cited for waiting to visit until roads were open and immediate needs taken care of. It was the same reason Trump’s own energy secretary, Rick Perry, cited in 2017 when he explained why then-President Trump had not visited Houston after Hurricane Harvey.


“He really wanted to be where there were citizens being affected. He was advised: the better place for you to go is Corpus Christi or San Antonio or Austin, where no search and rescue resources would be pulled away from what they’re doing,” Perry said.

Trump’s campaign defended the timing of the visit to Valdosta. “He met with the volunteers. He shook their hands,” said spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.

Former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Franklin Graham, president of the charity Samaritan's Purse, on Sept. 30 in Valdosta, Georgia. Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

Leavitt further insisted that Trump was, in fact, responsible for delivering the supplies. “He didn’t misspeak at all,” she said, adding that Trump could rightfully take credit for those supplies because he had started a GoFundMe online campaign for Hurricane Helene victims and had donated to Graham’s charity.

“He’s donated millions to Samaritan’s Purse,” Leavitt said.

She would not detail when those donations occurred, nor would she say how much — if anything ― Trump had personally given to the Helene GoFundMe. His name does not appear on the list of the GoFundMe campaign’s top donors, who had contributed between $15,000 and $500,000 as of Friday.

In September 2017, after criticism in the press for how Trump’s inaugural committee had spent the $107 million it had raised mainly from wealthy individuals and corporate donors, it announced it was giving $1 million each to three storm-related charities: the Red Cross, the Salvation Army and Samaritan’s Purse.

That $1 million gift to Graham’s charity, however, was not Trump’s money, and he was not permitted by law to keep any of it for personal use.

Samaritan’s Purse declined to confirm whether Trump had donated anything to the group using his own money, citing its policy not to disclose donors. The group runs a well-organized hurricane relief operation that for Helene dispatched tractor-trailer trucks filled with supplies to Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. The relief to Valdosta was sent on Sept. 29 and staged in a church about 3 miles north of the spot Trump visited the following afternoon.

Trump’s tax records released by the House Ways and Means Committee in 2022 and given to The New York Times by his niece, Mary Trump, meanwhile, show that the vast majority of Trump’s charitable donations through two decades have been in the form of conservation easements — promises that he will not develop land he already owns.

Much of the $11 million in cash he donated to charities between 2005 and 2020 came as he was running for president in 2015 and 2016 and in his first year in office. In 2017, he reported $1.9 million in cash donations — the recipients are not listed in the forms released by the House committee — and that number fell to $500,000 in 2018 and $505,000 in 2019. In 2020, he reported giving zero.

It is possible Trump gave millions to charities, including Samaritan’s Purse, but did not claim a tax deduction for the gifts. If Trump did indeed take credit for charitable work in Valdosta that he had nothing to do with, however, it would not be the first time.

In 1996, Trump showed up at a ribbon-cutting for a new nursery school in New York built for children suffering from AIDS. He got up on stage and took the seat of someone who was an actual major donor to the Association to Benefit Children. Trump had not given the group a dime but pretended that he had.

The Washington Post article in 2016 that revealed the nursery school episode also found that Trump frequently boasted of charitable donations that he had never made and that he had a history of using his “Trump Foundation” charity for paying personal and business bills.

In 2019, he was forced to shut down the foundation, pay a $2 million fine and agree to restrictions on his ability to operate a charity in New York State going forward as part of a settlement with the state’s attorney general. Further, his eldest three children, who were on the foundation’s board, had to undergo charity leadership training.

Trump is running to win back the White House after losing reelection in 2020. Since Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida and then flooded sections of several states to the north, he has been spreading numerous lies about President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ response to the storm.

Matheson said Thursday he had no problem with Trump’s visit and the police resources it consumed because of the attention it helped bring to the devastation his town had suffered.

“All the cameras he brought … he helped tell our story,” Matheson said. “We were taking any attention we could.”

Trump was not the first major political figure to visit, Matheson added. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic Sen. John Ossoff both visited two days earlier, on Sept. 28. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Biden visited on Oct. 3.

Matheson said he rode with Biden in his armored SUV to visit a flattened pecan farm on the outskirts of town and thanked the president for granting federal grant money without the requirement of a local match for storm recovery.

“My ride with him was just a thank you ride,” he said.
Leading U.S. Official On AI Policy Claims Tesla AI 'Recognizes Everybody As Tall White Men,' Says She'll Withdraw Her Money If Not Changed


Adrian Volenik
Sat, October 26, 2024

Leading U.S. Official On AI Policy Claims Tesla AI 'Recognizes Everybody As Tall White Men,' Says She'll Withdraw Her Money If Not Changed

Kathi Vidal, the current director of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office and an engineer who worked with AI in its earliest stages, made an eye-catching remark during the recent Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit about the shortcomings of Tesla’s AI.

In an open discussion, Vidal revealed her encounter with the AI in her Tesla, implying a significant bias in the system that, in her opinion, was far from inclusive.

“When I drive and I see a voluptuous woman walk across the street, Elon depicts her as a tall white man,” Vidal said, referring to how the Tesla’s AI seemingly categorizes all pedestrians in a narrow and, frankly, incorrect manner.

Vidal, who has a Tesla Model S Plaid and a Roadster on order, made it clear she’s willing to take action if this issue isn’t addressed. “Elon, if you’re listening, I’m going to withdraw my money if you don’t change that,” she added.



Vidal’s comments reflect broader concerns about biases in AI systems. This remark is just one example of the increasing conversation about how artificial intelligence can unintentionally reinforce stereotypes or fail to accurately represent different groups of people. With Tesla being at the forefront of autonomous vehicle technology, the biases in its AI systems are especially concerning because they could have real-world consequences.

The director of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has experience dating back to the early 1990s, when artificial intelligence was still in its infancy and data sets were much smaller than they are now. Vidal noted that when she worked in the aerospace industry trying to detect faults on aircraft, they were only working with much smaller, isolated data sets at the time, so there wasn’t even a conversation about big data or bias.

See Also: The global games market is projected to generate $272B by the end of the year — for $0.55/share, this VC-backed startup with a 7M+ userbase gives investors easy access to this asset market.

Vidal also discussed her approach to AI policy during the summit. She said that in her role, she focuses on four main things: jobs, innovation to solve community and world problems, making sure the U.S. stays competitive and national security. She believes that AI should benefit everyone, including eliminating prejudices like the one she observed in her Tesla.

She also expressed concerns about how policy is shaped, noting that all voices need to be heard to avoid policies that disproportionately benefit big corporations. “If we look at policy through that lens, we’re going to be shaping policy for the large organizations,” Vidal said, urging small businesses and individuals to weigh in on AI policy: “All of you have a stake in how we shape policy and we need you to reach out. You can write personal letters, [and] we’ll take meetings.”

Benzinga




Lyft agrees to pay $2.1 million penalty after FTC says company made 'deceptive' claims about how much drivers can earn

Lauren Edmonds
Sat, October 26, 2024


The US Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Lyft on Friday.


The FTC said Lyft made "deceptive" claims about how much money drivers could earn per hour.


Lyft agreed to a proposed settlement that included a $2.1 million civil penalty.


Lyft has agreed to pay a $2.1 million civil penalty as part of a proposed settlement following a federal lawsuit, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

The US Department of Justice filed a complaint against Lyft on Friday, saying the rideshare company violated the Federal Trade Commission Act between April 2021 and June 2022.

The department said Lyft made "deceptive earnings claims" about how much drivers could earn each hour — and in special incentives — in some advertisements.

"Lyft used the hourly earnings calculation at the 80th percentile for a given region. As a result, even relying on Lyft's own calculations, only the top 20% of Drivers — that is, only one in five Drivers — earned the hourly earnings figures quoted in the ads," the complaint said. "For example, in August 2021, Lyft claimed that Drivers in New Jersey could earn up to $34 per hour when Lyft's own calculations put the median earnings at only $25 per hour."

The Justice Department's complaint said that "because Lyft presented the earnings claim as an hourly amount and did not disclose that tips were factored into the figure, many Drivers were likely to believe that the tips they earned would be additional to the hourly earnings advertised by the company."

Lyft also shared advertisements with "earnings guarantees"

that "misled" drivers into believing they would receive the guaranteed amount as a bonus on top of their ordinary earnings, according to the complaint.


Lyft agreed to a proposed settlement that included a $2.1 million civil penalty. Kelly Sullivan/Getty Images

The complaint said the FTC sent a letter to Lyft in 2021 warning the company that it could be liable for civil penalties.

"Lyft continued to make deceptive earnings claims in its advertisements even after receiving the Notice," the complaint said.

The company agreed to a proposed settlement the same day, saying that it neither admitted nor denied any of the US government's claims.

When asked for a comment, a Lyft representative directed Business Insider toward a statement on the company's website.

"After productive discussions, we have agreed to pay the FTC $2.1 million USD to resolve their concerns. We agreed to this settlement because we recognize the importance of transparency in maintaining trust in the communities we serve," the statement said.

The statement referenced transparency initiatives launched by Lyft, including "upfront pay" introduced in October 2022 and distributing a new earnings summary in February "so drivers can see a breakdown of where every cent of the rider fare goes."

The settlement requires Lyft to pay a $2.1 million civil penalty.

"In addition to requiring the company to pay a $2.1 million civil penalty, the proposed settlement also will prohibit Lyft from making any earnings claim unless they have meaningful evidence to back that claim up," the FTC said in a press release. "In addition, Lyft will be prohibited from making any claims about hourly earnings that include tips as part of the stated hourly amount."

The settlement said Lyft must also disclose to drivers that — under its earnings guarantees — they will receive only the difference between their regular earnings and the guaranteed amount.

It also requires Lyft to notify drivers of the settlement.

Business Insider







Opinion - Harris’s plan for ‘Medicare at Home’ would revolutionize care in America

Mia Ives-Rublee and Molly Weston-Williamson, opinion contributors
Sat, October 26, 2024 


Vice President Kamala Harris recently unveiled a groundbreaking policy to provide home care services through Medicare, drawing parallels with her own experiences caring for her late mother.

This proposal reinforces one of her longstanding policy priorities — paid family and medical leave. Home care and paid leave are complementary, critically needed care investments that could transform how the U.S. addresses serious health needs, disability and aging.

Harris’s proposal, dubbed “Medicare at Home,” would significantly expand access to home and community-based services, allowing older and disabled people to receive services where they already are. These services empower disabled people to live independently and allow older adults to age at home, as the vast majority of people prefer to do.

Her plan would fill a gap that far too many Americans are falling through. Hundreds of thousands of people are lingering on years-long waitlists for home care. At the same time, people receiving home and community-based services under existing policies are weighed down by administrative burdens that restrict earnings and assets, leaving them with significant unmet needs. The combination of a growing disabled population and the Baby Boomer generation reaching retirement age means that Harris’s policy can’t come soon enough.

Compounding this health and aging crisis, the U.S. guarantees no paid leave for health or caregiving, making us an international outlier. As a result, most Americans do not have the paid leave they need to address their own serious health needs or those of a loved one, forcing them to make impossible choices between work and health.

Harris is a longtime leader in the fight for paid leave — she’s made it part of her economic agenda as well as a key campaign message. Her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D), signed into law Minnesota’s trailblazing paid leave program in 2023, and he has called for federal paid leave to be the next administration’s first priority.

The Harris-Walz agenda prioritizes home care and paid leave because Americans need both of these supports to balance work, health, care and bills. Taken together, these twin policies create greater flexibility and autonomy for disabled people, those with chronic illnesses and aging people to respond to care needs in the right ways for them and their families. By allowing people to receive the care they need when and where they need it, paid leave and home care hold profound health benefits. Research also shows that paid leave can reduce nursing home usage, reinforcing access to care at home.

At the same time, paid leave and home and community-based services are desperately needed tools to support work, as these programs can reduce barriers to employment for disabled people. Not only do these services provide more flexible access to health care, they can also offer direct employment supports, like job coaching and case management, with strong models in Medicaid for the Harris-Walz program to emulate. Access to formal home care can also increase the ability of family caregivers to work. Similarly, paid leave enables workers to take the time they need for health or care and then return to work, rather than being pushed out of the labor force.

Collectively, these work supports would be boons to both household income and, through greater labor force participation, the American economy.

Writ large, home and community-based services and paid leave mean greater financial security for disabled and older adults and their families. Long-term care costs tens of thousands of dollars per year, making it far too expensive for nearly all Americans to afford out of pocket. Harris’s proposal would pay for new home care services through Medicare, rather than Medicaid, meaning families wouldn’t have to exhaust their own financial resources in order to qualify for support, while preserving existing Medicaid-based services. Paid leave keeps income flowing when serious health needs strike, reducing economic insecurity in the short-term while also bolstering retirement security in the long run.

An escalating need for care or a health need that pulls many people away from work poses a big risk to families, communities and our nation’s economy. But with the game-changing care investments Harris has proposed in home and community-based services and paid leave, the future could look much brighter. Let’s give the American people a firm foundation for health and aging to rely and build upon, with support and dignity — instead of leaving them at perpetual risk of having the rug pulled out from under them.

Mia Ives-Rublee is the senior director of the Disability Justice Initiative at the Center for American Progress. Molly Weston-Williamson is a senior fellow with the Women’s Initiative at the Center for American Progress.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 







Bulgaria's GERB wins election, coalition talks in sight

Reuters
Sun, October 27, 2024 at 11:41 PM MDT

Bulgaria snap parliamentary election


SOFIA (Reuters) -Bulgaria's centre-right GERB party won a parliamentary election on Sunday, preliminary results showed, but it will have to seek a coalition partner to form a government.

According to preliminary results from the state election commission based on a partial vote count, GERB won 26.08% of the votes.

The reformist We Continue the Change (PP) party came second with 14.76%, the commission website showed on Monday morning after counting more than 82% of the votes, while the ultra-nationalist Revival party came third with 13.8%.

Sunday's election, the seventh in four years, was triggered by the failure of Bulgaria's political parties to agree on forming a coalition government after an inconclusive election on June 9.

GERB leader Boyko Borissov on Monday morning thanked voters for their support and said his party would form a new government.

"We will work together with everyone except Revival," he said.

Bulgaria has been run by short-lived governments since 2020, when anti-graft protests helped to end a coalition led by the GERB party.

Bulgaria needs a period of stable, well-functioning government to accelerate the flow of European Union funds into its creaking infrastructure and nudge it towards adoption of the euro.

Plans to join the eurozone have already been pushed back twice because of missed inflation targets. Accession is currently slated for Jan. 25, 2025.

Many voters said they feared further uncertainty ahead.

"Even if they manage to form a government, I don’t give it a high chance of a successful and healthy lifespan in terms of the next four years," Stoyan Danin, 37, in Sofia told Reuters.

(Reporting by Georgi Slavov; Editing by Ivana Sekularac and Tom Hogue)


Bulgaria’s Borissov Vows to Form Cabinet as Deadlock Remains

Slav Okov
Mon, October 28, 2024 


(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria’s former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov vowed to form a government after winning Sunday’s election, even as his party fell short of the majority needed to bring an end to almost four years of political paralysis.

Borissov’s Gerb won 26.2% in Sunday’s snap vote, according to official results based on 88% of the ballots counted. But with nine blocs set to enter parliament, he will struggle to cobble together a stable coalition after seventh election since 2021.

The stalemate has already delayed Bulgaria’s plans to adopt the euro to late next year or early 2026 and held up billions of euros in European Union aid to its poorest member state.

Borissov’s main challenger, an alliance running on an anti-corruption platform led by ex-Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, came second on Sunday with 15.1% of vote. The nationalist Revival party, which has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points and wants Bulgaria out of NATO, took 13.7%.

Short-lived administrations, both elected and caretaker, have run Bulgaria since anti-graft protests put an end in early 2021 to Borissov’s political dominance that lasted a decade. The Balkan country has repeatedly faced scrutiny from Brussels over corruption in politics and the judiciary.

“We are committed to forming a government,” Borissov told reporters in Sofia on Sunday. His chances of success are “100%, as of today,” he added.

That’s easier said than done. Most parties have repeatedly refused to collaborate with Borissov, leaving him limited options to return to office despite a series of election wins. The former prime minister has faced accusations of mafia ties, which he denies.

“Two parties are not enough” for a ruling majority, Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at the Alpha Research pollster, told the BNT public TV channel. “They’ll have to look for a third one. The question is which one,” she said.

Borissov vowed on Sunday to work with everyone except Revival due to ideological differences. However, frustration with mainstream parties has boosted Revival’s success — its number of voters has grown fourfold since 2021.

Borissov will be the first to receive a mandate to form a government from President Rumen Radev. If Gerb fails to secure support, the mandate will be offered to the second-biggest party.

Were this to prove unsuccessful as well, Radev — a NATO-trained general known for his Russia-friendly stances — will have to invite another party to form a government before he is obliged to schedule a new election. Analysts don’t rule out another vote next spring.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Conservatives lead in Bulgaria's legislative election exit polls

Euronews
Sat, October 26, 2024

Preliminary exit polls from Bulgaria's early parliamentary election suggest another win for former prime minister Boyko Borisov's conservative GERB party.

According to the Gallup International Balkan exit poll, the pro-Europe GERB party holds 25.1% of the vote, followed by We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) with 15.4% and the nationalist Vazrazhdane party at 13.8%.

The BSP - United Left trails with 8.1%, and DPS - New Beginning at 7.7%.

Voter turnout is estimated at 33.5%, Gallup reported.

A separate exit poll by Alfa Research places GERB with a wider lead at 26.4%, followed by PP-DB at 14.9% and Vazrazhdane at 12.9%, with an estimated turnout of 38%.

The final results will determine if GERB gains enough support to end Bulgaria’s political deadlock.

The vote on Sunday is the seventh general election in just over three years, as Bulgaria faces growing political instability that could encourage the rise of pro-Russian and far-right sentiment.

Only two of the six general elections since 2021 have produced an elected government. However, they both collapsed after trying to introduce reforms and cut remnants of the country’s reliance on Russia.

The latest vote held in June produced no clear winner and the seven factions elected in the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition.

Observers suggest the coming vote will produce more of the same, with chances of an immediate end to the political stalemate low.

Pollsters predicted voter fatigue and disillusionment in the political system would result in a low turnout and fragmented parliament where populist and pro-Russian groups could increase their representation.

At the same time, a high number of controlled votes was expected - not only bought votes but also those due to pressure from local authorities, including corporate ones, according to prominent analyst Stoyana Georgieva.

She predicted a possibility that the main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, would emerge as a second political force.

The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party insists Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in NATO.

The Balkan country of 6.7 million has been gripped by political instability since 2020 when nationwide protests erupted against corrupt politicians that had allowed oligarchs to take control of state institutions.

Bulgaria is one of the poorest and most corrupt European Union Member States and attempts to fight graft are an uphill battle against an unreformed judiciary widely accused of serving the interests of politicians.

Bulgaria Votes Again After Four Years of Deadlock: What to Watch

Slav Okov
Sat, October 26, 2024 




(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria will vote in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday that is expected to deepen a political stalemate in one of the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt nations.

This will be the country’s seventh vote in less than four years and its second this year.

Pollsters expect former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb party to win by a significant margin. But years of corruption scandals and accusations of mafia ties, which he denies, have made it difficult for him to forge a coalition. Borissov ran Bulgaria on and off for more than a decade until anti-graft protests brought him down in 2021.

Political analysts won’t rule out another election in early 2025.

The Balkan country has repeatedly faced scrutiny from Brussels over corruption in politics and the judiciary. The stalemate has also delayed plans to adopt the euro to late next year or early 2026 and held up billions of euros in EU aid.

Exit polls will be published after the voting ends at 8 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected a few hours later.

Here’s what to watch:

Coalition Commotion

Borissov has pitched a coalition to keep Bulgaria on its pro-western course to a bloc of parties led by former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. But backing from the alliance, which has run on an anti-corruption agenda, isn’t guaranteed and may not suffice. Petkov’s bloc emerged as the biggest loser of June’s election.



Borissov has vowed to take office as prime minister himself, should his party win by a large margin, but hasn’t ruled out going alone in a minority government.

Smaller parties are unlikely to back a government without either Petkov or Borissov’s blocs. Potential coalition partners are hard to predict, as several small anti-establishment parties are close to the threshold needed to enter parliament.

Turnout Troubles

Bulgarians’ willingness to vote has fallen precipitously since Borissov first took office fifteen years ago. Back then, the turnout exceeded 60%.

None of the latest votes produced a stable majority and only a third of eligible voters turned up at the polling stations in June. That trend may continue with Sunday’s turnout expected to hit an all-time low, depriving political parties of public backing required for key reforms.


Pro-Russia Vote

The low turnout is also likely to strengthen a Moscow-friendly nationalist Revival party, which has come second in recent opinion polls. It wants to take Bulgaria out of NATO and has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points about the war in Ukraine.

Revival has no friends among the mainstream parties. But were Borissov’s Gerb as the likely winner fail to form a government, Bulgaria’s president is obliged to give the mandate to the runner-up. Revival was running neck-and-neck with Petkov’s bloc in the most recent polls.

While chances for an outright anti-western majority are slim, the politicking born of the turmoil has already helped Revival pass a law against the so-called LGBTQ ‘propaganda’ in schools, which activists have slammed as echoing Russian legislation.

Bulgaria has long been one of the most Russia-friendly members of the EU and Revival is not the only anti-establishment party, which has demonstrated sympathy toward the Kremlin.

Sanctioned Kingmaker

A major headache for all political players, but also a potential ally, is Delyan Peevski. His party backed Borissov’s cabinet after the June election.

A lawmaker and former media mogul sanctioned by the US for corruption, Peevski is seen as the face of graft in Bulgaria and a politically toxic coalition partner.

Political infighting has split Peevski’s own party in two since June, weakening his clout in parliament. Nevertheless, opponents say his influence in the judiciary and law enforcement remains strong.



Euro Doubts

Successive governments have argued that adopting the EU’s single currency will help Bulgaria close the wealth gap with other member states. One of the EU’s least-indebted countries, Bulgaria seeks to meet its inflation targets in order to adopt the euro as early as next year.

However, politicians’ promises have already pushed government spending to the limit of what Brussels allows. More political uncertainty may make it even harder for Sofia to convince the European Central Bank and the EU that it is ready to join the euro zone.

--With assistance from Julius Domoney.

 Bloomberg Businessweek


Conservatives top Bulgarian elections but fall short of majority

Vessela SERGUEVA
Sun, October 27, 2024 at 4:23 PM MDT
3 min read



Rising voter apathy is palpable on the streets of Sofia, with people telling AFP they are 'fed up' (Nikolay DOYCHINOV)Nikolay DOYCHINOV/AFP/AFP
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways


The conservative party of former premier Boyko Borisov came first in Bulgaria's seventh general election in less than four years on Sunday, according to early results, but analysts warned that the lack of a majority meant lingering uncertainty.

Borisov's GERB party won about 25 percent of the vote, according to projections published by polling institutes with 80 percent of votes counted.

The reformist coalition PP-DB and the pro-Russia ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane party were in a close race for second place, gaining around 13 percent to 15 percent of the ballots.



"We are again waiting at the same bus stop to see whether GERB and PP-DB will reach an agreement" to isolate the far-right Vazrazhdane, said analyst Andrey Raichev on television.

The European Union's poorest member country has been at a political standstill since 2021 after massive anti-corruption protests in 2020 triggered the downfall of one Borisov-led cabinet.

Six votes since then have failed to yield a stable government.

Late Sunday, Borisov pledged to work on forming another government, adding he was willing to "compromise" despite securing a "categorical victory", but excluded working with the far right.



GERB will likely struggle to find partners to govern in the extremely fragmented parliament, where eight parties are expected to be represented.

- 'Without outside interference' -

Compared to the last election, voter turnout slightly increased to 38 percent. At a vote in June, turnout plummeted to just 34 percent -- the lowest since the end of communism.

According to a recent opinion poll, about 60 percent of Bulgarians surveyed said the political deadlock was "extremely alarming".

"We're fed up, that's for sure," said Aneliya Ivanova ahead of the vote, echoing rising voter apathy.

"We're tired of being stuck in a carousel that goes round and round, and every time it's the same result," the 33-year-old IT worker told AFP.

The political impasse -- which is unprecedented since 1989 -- has also favoured the Vazrazhdane party.

"Bulgaria must remain an independent country, without outside interference," the group's president Kostadin Kostadinov said, referring to the EU and the United States.

Vazrazhdane appears to have gained influence since proposing a law banning LGBTQ "propaganda" that was passed by parliament in August.

The legislation was inspired by a similar law in Russia. Even though Bulgaria is a NATO member, many citizens remain strongly pro-Russian.


- Undecided White House race -

According to analyst Raichev, Borisov will wait for the result of the November US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris before forming a government.

"Borisov will feel much more comfortable if Trump becomes president," he added.

The election of Republican Trump and his "leniency towards corruption" could prompt GERB to form a minority cabinet with tacit backing from former tycoon Delyan Peevski, who is the target of US and British sanctions, said analyst Dobromir Zhivkov, director of the Market Links institute.

The 44-year-old lawmaker has created a breakaway faction within the Turkish minority MRF party, which took fourth place Sunday with around 10 percent of the vote.

Amid fears of electoral fraud, public prosecutors launched hundreds of investigations ahead of the vote. More than 70 people suspected of vote-buying were arrested.

Prolonged political instability has put key anti-corruption reforms as well as the country's energy transition on hold, jeopardising the payout of European funds.

Bulgaria's goals of joining the eurozone and the free movement Schengen area via land have also slipped further away.

A further burden to the country is the cost of organising seven elections amounting to several hundred million euros.


California’s commercial Dungeness crab season delayed again to protect whales

Associated Press
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 

Fresh Dungeness crabs are displayed at Fisherman's Wharf in San Francisco, Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg, File)

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The start of the commercial Dungeness crab season in California has been delayed for the seventh year in a row to protect humpback whales from becoming entangled in trap and buoy lines.

The state Department of Fish and Wildlife said Friday that commercial crabbing will be delayed until at least Dec. 1. The situation will be reassessed on or around Nov. 15.

It’s the latest delay for the start of the commercial season, which traditionally begins in mid-November for waters between the Mendocino county line and the border with Mexico.

Meanwhile the recreational take of Dungeness crab using traps will be temporarily restricted in some areas when the recreational season opens Nov. 2, officials said. Recreational crabbers will be able to use other methods, including hoop nets and crab snares.

The commercial crab industry is one of California’s major fisheries and the shellfish is especially popular around the holidays.

Humpback whales can get caught in the vertical ropes connected to heavy commercial traps, which they can drag around for months, leaving them injured, starved or so exhausted that they can drown.

GOVERNMENT OF THE STREETS

Gang coalition in Haiti spreads violence to Port-au-Prince neighborhood, setting fire to homes

PIERRE-RICHARD LUXAMA and EVENS SANON
Sat, October 26, 2024 

A resident, with a dresser attached to the back of his motorbike, flees his home escaping gang violence in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. 

Residents pack up their belongings to flee their homes to escape gang violence in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024.

Cars are used as barricades to prevent entry of gang members into the Nazon neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024.

A residents flee their home escaping gang violence in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. 
(AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)


PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — A gang coalition on Saturday reinforced its attacks on one of the few communities in the Haitian capital not under the control of criminal groups, seeking to take it over.

After a week of clashes with the police in the Solino neighborhood in Port-au-Prince, members of the gang coalition, Viv Ansanm, attacked once again, setting fire to several homes, as the national police union warned that the area was almost under total control of the gunmen.

As morning broke on Saturday, images from social media showed the neighborhood engulfed in smoke and flames. Many people were seen leaving the area with whatever they could carry. Security forces and armed individuals exchanged fire not far from Solino’s police base.

“Solino and Nazon almost lost!” said SPNH-17, a national police union, on X Saturday morning. It also demanded the resignation of authorities. Nazon, another neighborhood right by Solino, also came under attack.

Viv Ansanm, which means “Living Together,” formed in September 2023 as a coalition of two gang federations that were previously enemies. It was responsible for several attacks on critical government infrastructure in February which eventually led to the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry.

On Thursday, the gangs also opened fire and hit a U.N. helicopter, forcing it to make an emergency landing in Port-au-Prince, with one U.S. airline Friday temporarily cancelling flights to the capital. Since last week, residents in Solino have been calling radio stations pleading for help as they fled their homes.

In Solino, Garry Jean-Joseph, 33, blamed the police for the ongoing violence. “I left with nothing,” he said. “The people of Solino do not understand last night, the conspiracy of the policemen and the Live Together (Viv Ansanm) soldiers."

The resident described how at 2 a.m., a policeman in an armored car told residents to go home and that they would secure the neighborhood. However, shortly afterward residents could hear gangs invading. “The police delivered Solino,” he added.

Some officers with Haiti's National Police have been long accused of corruption and working with gangs.

The attacks have displaced more than 10,000 people in the capital in just one week, according to a report released Thursday by the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration. More than half of those left homeless crowded into 14 makeshift shelters, including schools. The remainder are temporarily staying with relatives.

Gangs control 80% of Port-au-Prince, although communities like Solino have been fighting attempts by gunmen to seize control. As gang violence surges across Haiti’s capital and beyond in recent days, concerns have been raise that a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police is struggling to contain the unrest. Thousands of people have been killed or injured this year, and more than 700,000 have been left homeless in recent years.

U.S. and Haitian officials including interim President of Haiti Leslie Voltaire have said the Kenyan mission lacks personnel and funding and have requested that it be replaced by a U.N. peacekeeping mission.



Residents in Haiti's capital flee homes as gangs expand control
Reuters
Sat, October 26, 2024 









Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince

Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways


PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - A gang attack in Port-au-Prince forced residents to flee their homes on Saturday as the gangs operating in and around the Haitian capital ramp up attacks on areas they do not yet control.

Smoke from gunfights billowed above the capital's Solino neighborhood, where fleeing residents strapped mattresses, furniture, cooking supplies and other possessions to trucks.

Others fled on foot carrying what belongings they could.

Gangs have been escalating their attacks on a number of towns in and around the capital, where much of the city and its suburbs are under the control of various violent armed groups united under a common alliance known as Viv Ansanm.

In Solino, thousands of residents have been displaced in recent days, including people who had previously been displaced from other neighborhoods, the U.N.'s World Food Programme (WFP) said in a press conference on Friday.

The total number of displaced people in Haiti has doubled in the past three months to almost 700,000, the WFP said.

"I can't count the number of times I've left my house ... Every time I arrive in a new area, I run away," said one man who did not wish to be identified.

Exasperated Solino resident Kettelie Morose, who said she suffers from hypertension and other illnesses, said that "bandits" had kicked her out of her home.

"I'm responsible for several children and I don't know what to do," she said.

Haiti's security crisis continues to fuel the Caribbean nation's humanitarian disaster. The World Food Programme said on Friday that 5.4 million Haitians, or roughly half of the population, is suffering from acute hunger, with pockets of famine-level hunger being reported among internally displaced people.

A U.N. helicopter aiding humanitarian efforts was hit by gunfire on Thursday while flying over Port-au-Prince, later landing safely, the WFP said.

While the U.N. authorized an international force to help Haiti's police take back control from the gangs, the mission has been poorly resourced and has produced scant results.


More than 10,000 Haitians flee gang attacks in past week, UN says

Reuters
Updated Thu, October 24, 2024 

Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince

FILE PHOTO: Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince

Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince

Haitians flee homes from gang violence, in Port-au-Prince

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - More than 10,000 people in Haiti have been internally displaced in the last week as armed gangs operating in and around the capital Port-au-Prince ramp up attacks on areas they do not yet control, according U.N. migration agency estimates on Thursday.

The agency had said at the start of September that more than 700,000 people were internally displaced across the Caribbean nation, nearly double the figure six months earlier.

Gangs have in the last week been ramping up attacks on a number of towns outside the capital, where much of the city and its suburbs is under the control of various violent armed groups united under a common alliance known as Viv Ansanm.

The conflict is fueling famine-level hunger in parts of the population as gangs take over farmlands and block off transport routes, while people forced to flee their homes - often to host families or makeshift camps - can no longer depend on steady income to afford food.

While the U.N. authorized an international force to help Haiti's police take back control from the gangs, the mission has been poorly resourced and has produced scant results.

Haiti's leadership has requested the force be converted to a formal peacekeeping mission in order to shore up resources, an initiative that was blocked last month by China and Russia.

Gangs who previously targeted national police, civilian self-defense groups and state infrastructure have also began targeting foreign vehicles.

The U.S. embassy in Haiti told Reuters that on Monday, two of its armored vehicles had been targeted by gang gunfire. One was hit by multiple rounds though no one was hurt or injured.

A marked U.N. helicopter with 18 people aboard was also hit by gunfire on Thursday while flying over Port-au-Prince, the U.N.'s World Food Programme said in a statement to Reuters.

No one was injured and the helicopter landed safely, according to the WFP.

(Reporting by Sarah Morland and Harold Isaac; Editing by Brendan O'Boyle and Christopher Cushing)


Gangs in Haiti open fire and hit a UN helicopter midair as violence surges

DÁNICA COTO and EVENS SANON
Updated Thu, October 24, 2024 

Soldiers patrol amid the sound of gunshots heard in the distance, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Gangs on Thursday opened fire and hit a U.N. helicopter, forcing it to land in Port-au-Prince in the latest attack in Haiti's capital as violence surges once again.

No one was injured as several rounds of gunfire hit the helicopter that was carrying three crew members and 15 passengers, according to a U.N. source who was not authorized to confirm the incident. The helicopter, which had departed from Port-au-Prince before it was attacked, landed safely, the source said.

The attack comes five months after Haiti's main international airport reopened following coordinated gang attacks that forced it to close for nearly three months.

The violence has spilled to nearby areas including Arcahaie, where some 50 suspected gang members died this week after attacking the coastal town located just northwest of the capital. Among the dead are at least a dozen gunmen who drowned after their boat capsized, a government official said Thursday.

While the majority were killed by police, a group of gunmen drowned on Wednesday after their boat hit the reef as they ferried ammunition to gangs attacking the town of Arcahaie, said Wilner Réné from Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency.

He told Radio Caraïbes that the attack began on Monday, with gunmen burning homes and cars across Arcahaie.

When the gangs ran out of ammunition, they hid in nearby areas and were ferreted out by residents and police, he said.

The attack is still ongoing, and Réné warned that officers on the scene urgently need reinforcements from soldiers and special police units.

The attack is blamed on a gang coalition called Viv Ansanm, which also has targeted communities in Port-au-Prince in recent days. Those attacks have displaced more than 10,000 people in the capital in just one week, according to a report released Thursday by the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration. More than half of those left homeless crowded into 14 makeshift shelters, including schools. The remainder are temporarily staying with relatives.

The spike in gang violence comes just months after a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police began with the aim of quelling a surge in violence from gangs, who control more than 80% of Port-au-Prince. More than 700,000 people have been left homeless, and thousands have been killed.

The U.S. government and top Haitian officials have warned that the Kenyan-led mission lacks personnel and funding and have asked that it be replaced with a U.N.-peacekeeping mission.

___

Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico

Middle East latest: Social platform X suspends new account on behalf of Iran's supreme leader

SO MUCH FOR TWITTER'S DEFENSE OF FREE SPEECH

The Associated Press
Sun, October 27, 2024 

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to the crowd in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows damaged buildings at Iran's Khojir military base outside of Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. An Israeli attack on Iran damaged facilities at a secretive military base southeast of the Iranian capital that experts in the past have linked to Tehran's onetime nuclear weapons program and at another base tied to its ballistic missile program, satellite photos analyzed Sunday by The Associated Press show. The damaged structures are in the bottom center of the image. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP)

In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP)

The social platform X has suspended a new account on behalf of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that posted messages in Hebrew.

The account was suspended early Monday with a brief note appended to it saying: “X suspends accounts which violate the X Rules.” It wasn’t immediately clear what the violation was. The Elon Musk-owned social media company did not respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press.

The move came after Israel openly attacked Iran for the first time this weekend. Khamenei said in a speech on Sunday that Israel’s strikes — in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack this month — “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” while stopping short of calling for retaliation.



The X account opened Sunday with a message in Hebrew reading: “In the name of God, the most merciful,” a standard Islamic greeting.

Khamenei’s office has maintained multiple accounts for the 85-year-old supreme leader on X for years and has sent messages in a variety of languages in the past.

A second message corresponded to a speech Khamenei gave on Sunday and was sent on his English account as: “Zionists are making a miscalculation with respect to Iran. They don’t know Iran. They still haven’t been able to correctly understand the power, initiative, and determination of the Iranian people.” The message referred to Israel’s attack Saturday on Iran.

This isn’t the first time Khamenei has seen a suspension or removal from social media. In February, Meta removed Facebook and Instagram accounts for the supreme leader over his support of the militant group Hamas after its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.



Social media platforms like X and Facebook have been blocked in Iran for years, requiring Iranians to use virtual private networks to access them.

___

Here’s the latest:

UN Security Council schedules emergency meeting at Iran's request

UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting Monday afternoon at Iran’s request on Israel’s air strikes against the country.

Switzerland, which holds the council’s rotating presidency, announced the meeting on Sunday and said the Iranian request was supported by Russia, China and Algeria, the Arab representative on the council.

Iranian president vows to respond ‘appropriately’ to Israeli strikes



TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says his country will respond to Israel “appropriately," after Israel openly attacked Iranian military sites for the first time this weekend.

“We are not seeking war, but we will defend the rights of our nation and country and will respond appropriately to the Zionist regime’s aggression,” Pezeshkian was quoted by state TV on Sunday as saying.

Pezeshkian also said the U.S. had promised Iran to stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon if Iran restrained. “They had promised to end the war in response to our restraint, but they did not keep their word,” he said.

The Iranian president also warned tensions will escalate if Israel’s aggression continues, adding, “We know that the United States is encouraging Israel to commit these atrocities.”



Iran says a civilian was killed in Israel's attack

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran announced Sunday that a civilian had been killed in Israel’s attack on the country, without offering any details on the circumstances of his death.

The state-run IRNA news agency identified the dead man as Allahverdi Rahimpour and said he lived in a suburban area of southwestern Tehran.

While offering no details on what he was doing or where he was killed, IRNA made a point to say he was not a member of Iran’s armed forces.

Iran has offered few details on the attack and the damage caused by them so far.
China's private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown


FILE PHOTO: Children and their parents are seen on their way to the school in Tianhe district in Guanghzou

FILE PHOTO: China showcases poverty alleviation during a government organised tour of Tibet

FILE PHOTO: Students attend a class at the Wenchang Middle School in Yuexi during a government-organised media tour in Liangshan

FILE PHOTO: Girl stands near an outlet of private educational services provider New Oriental Education and Technology Group in Beijing

Sun, October 27, 2024 
By Casey Hall and Laurie Chen

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China is quietly easing regulatory pressure on private tutoring operators as it looks to revive a flagging economy, spurring a nascent revival of a sector hit hard by a government crackdown three years ago, according to industry figures, analysts and data reviewed by Reuters.

There has been no formal acknowledgement of a change in policy. But there is now tacit consent from policymakers to allow the tutoring industry to grow, in a pivot by Beijing to support job creation, eight industry figures and two analysts familiar with the developments told Reuters.

The shift is evident in new growth among tutoring businesses and moves by Beijing to clarify its approach, as well as in Reuters interviews with five Chinese parents who described a gradual liberalisation in recent months.

Details in this story about the relaxation of policy enforcement and the increasing openness of tutoring organisations' operations have not been previously reported.

Starting in 2021, a government crackdown known as the "double reduction" policy prohibited for-profit tutoring in core school subjects, with the aim of easing educational and financial pressure on parents and students.

The move wiped billions of dollars off the market value of providers such as New Oriental Education & Technology Group and TAL Education Group, and led to tens of thousands of job losses. Before the crackdown, China's for-profit tutoring industry was valued at some $100 billion and its three biggest players employed over 170,000 people.

Still, the industry proved resilient, as parents like Michelle Lee, 36, continued to seek tutoring services to give their children a leg-up in China's ultracompetitive education system.

Lee, who is based in southern China, spends 3,000 yuan a month, or about $420, on after-school classes for her son and daughter, including one-on-one mathematics tutoring and online lessons in English. She told Reuters that in recent months tutoring schools had been operating more openly than they have since 2021.

"When the policy first came out, I think those tutoring organisations were a little bit scared, so they kind of hid, like they would close the curtains during class," she said. "But it seems like they don't do that anymore."

In China's high-pressure educational environment, parents have little choice but to rely on outside tutoring just so their children can keep pace, Lee said, adding that she had "felt a huge sense of failure" as she tried to support her children's education.

China's education ministry did not respond to questions about its evolving approach to the tutoring industry.

At a ministry press conference in March, Liu Xiya, a delegate of China's legislature and president of a Chongqing-based education group, told local media that "pain points" in education policy were gradually being addressed.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said China was unlikely to admit that the crackdown "was a little too forceful". Rather, there would be a "tacit easing back toward a looser regulatory stance", he said.

"The overall policy environment has shifted from restrictive to supportive as the main goal now is stabilisation," Song said, adding that the tutoring industry should benefit from the broader shift.

EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT

Two executives at large tutoring companies who deal with regulatory issues told Reuters that government moves to ease the crackdown had accelerated in recent months.

Most notable was a decision in August by the State Council, China's cabinet, to include education services in a 20-point plan to boost consumption - a key aspect of Beijing's efforts to fire up the economy. The move boosted stocks of listed education companies, and came as more than 11 million university graduates entered China's employment market.

That announcement followed draft guidelines from China's education ministry in February, which clarified the kinds of off-campus tutoring that would be permitted, and its introduction last year of an online "white list" of companies approved to provide tutoring in non-core subjects.

In addition, inspections by local authorities of tutoring schools have lessened considerably of late from their peak early in the crackdown, one of the executives said.

Both executives said the message they have received from Chinese officials since August is that the tutoring industry will remain tightly regulated, but with a wider pathway to operate successfully and above-board, provided operators do not flout restrictions on teaching core academic curriculum. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorised to talk to the media.

Claudia Wang, who leads the Asia Education Practice at consultancy Oliver Wyman, said that having eliminated some low-quality players, the government was pinning hope on the education sector to help address "super high" youth unemployment.

"I think that's very, very fundamental to the shift," Wang said.

Hiring patterns and other moves by listed education firms point to an expansion of the industry this year.

Active licenses for extracurricular for-profit tutoring centres rose 11.4% between January and June, according to research firm Plenum China.

TAL and New Oriental have been hiring for thousands of positions this year, according to data from their annual reports and a Reuters review of job listings on major Chinese employment platforms. The number of schools and learning centres operated by New Oriental and TAL has also rebounded, according to data from the companies and Plenum China.

The companies' shares have traded this year at their highest on average since 2021, though still far below pre-crackdown levels.

New Oriental declined to comment to Reuters about how it was responding to the changing regulatory landscape, while TAL did not reply to a similar request. In its annual report in September, New Oriental noted continuing "significant risks" from the ways in which regulations and policies related to private education are interpreted and implemented.

"We have been closely monitoring the evolving regulatory environment and are making efforts to seek guidance from and cooperate with the government authorities to comply," the report said.

CREATIVE CURRICULUM

Another reason for the industry's revival is that it proved impossible to eliminate.

In practice, private tutoring operators, while diminished, continued to exist in various forms, often redesigning courses to skirt restrictions or advertising them under code words. Mathematics-related courses, for example, are commonly marketed as "logical thinking".

Lisa ran an English tutoring school in the eastern province of Zhejiang that shifted its curriculum to comply with rules that prohibit the teaching of core subjects such as mathematics and English.

Lisa, who declined to give her full name for fear of official retribution, said she laid off 60% of her staff following the crackdown. But the school maintained classes by pivoting to teaching science-related courses in English, without calling them English classes.

One-on-one tutoring, meanwhile, flourished as parents who could afford the higher prices hired tutors to come to their homes.

That worried parents like Yang Zengdong, a Shanghai-based mother of two, who said the policy presented families with the unenviable choice of paying up to 800 yuan per class for a private tutor or investing hours each day themselves in helping their children keep up.

"If double reduction continues, the academic gap between rich people and everyone else will get worse," she said.

"That wasn't what the policy was meant to do but that's the reality, so of course it needs to change."