UK chancellor heads to Brussels, distracting EU from Trump’s ‘crazy world’

Five years after Brexit, Rachel Reeves will find Europe ready to talk ― as it looks for respite from some of its own troubles.


Rachel Reeves’ appearance in Brussels is part of the Labour government’s push for a “reset” in relations with the EU. | Pool photo by Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

December 8, 2024 
By Hannah Brenton, Giovanna Faggionato and Gregorio Sorgi

POTICO EU

LONDON / BRUSSELS ― Rarely has a Brit been so welcome in Brussels.

Sure, they won’t be popping the champagne corks as she steps off the Eurostar train on Monday, but U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be greeted warmly by European Union finance ministers ready to talk to a British government trying hard to get back on friendly terms.

The timing certainly helps. Five years after the acrimonious divorce of Brexit and five months after Labour returned to power, the EU is genuinely matching the new government’s rhetoric of wanting a “reset” in relations. And with the bloc’s biggest countries in political crisis and the rest of the world, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump put it in Paris on Saturday, “going a little crazy right now,” her visit is opportune.

“The big message is that the EU and the U.K. are finding each other amidst global turmoil,” an EU diplomat said.

That turmoil doesn’t only include the escalating bloodshed and uncertainty in the Middle East and, in Ukraine, a war so close to home it would have been unthinkable the last time a British finance minister attended a meeting of their European counterparts shortly before the U.K. left the EU in January 2020. The EU itself has scarcely felt so fragile, with the French government last week toppled by far-right and left lawmakers and an enfeebled German chancellor forced into a snap election he’ll likely lose.

For now, none of that has translated into fright in financial markets and the Eurogroup ― the powerful gathering of eurozone finance ministers that would be on the front line of any effort to stamp out potential contagion ― are happy for the opportunity to avert their gaze when Reeves arrives for the 3 p.m. discussion.

Governments are determined not to discuss France at the meeting, officials said ― for one thing, that might tempt the markets to panic. Who’d have thought, amid the pre-Covid tumult of the U.K.’s acrimonious divorce from the EU, that by 2024 talking to the Brits would provide welcome respite?

More in common?

Reeves’ appearance in Brussels is part of the Labour government’s push for a “reset” in relations with the EU. Prime Minister Keir Starmer already made a trip across the Channel in October, and will be back for a summit in February.

It comes after EU-U.K. relations soured dramatically once Britain left the bloc, particularly under the governments of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

The mood only started improving in February 2023 when former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reached a deal with the EU on the Northern Ireland border.

Since then, the focus has been on rebuilding trust on both sides.

Reeves will continue with that message on Monday. But the new Labour government is also pushing to ease Brexit bottlenecks in tangible areas like a veterinary deal, a defense pact, and recognition of professional qualifications.

Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has also pointed to the U.K. budget as a model for the policies the EU needs to regain competitiveness. 

| Ferenc Isza/Getty Images

“We will not be reversing Brexit or re-entering the single market or customs union but we must reset our relationship,” Reeves said in a major speech in the City of London last month on her message to the EU.

“We must recognize that our markets are highly inter-connected and ensure that on the economy and in financial services our approach supports growth and delivers investment.”

Sharing is caring

And the EU and U.K. do have shared problems — both economically and politically.

Reeves will share her views on the economic headwinds facing the U.K. economy — which will be familiar to many EU ministers — of slow growth, stagnant investment and stretched public finances.

The dialogue is “great news,” said an official from Spain’s economy ministry, who considers the British chancellor an ally sharing a common economic agenda of pursuing sustainable growth, combining an increase in investment and fiscal responsibility.

While Spain has one of the few remaining left-of-center governments among EU countries, it’s not the only one that has welcomed the new U.K. executive.

Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has also pointed to the U.K. budget as a model for the policies the EU needs to regain competitiveness.

“Certainly, economy wise, the British economy is much more comparable to the European economy than the American economy,” said Karel Lannoo, chief executive of the Centre for European Policy Studies think tank.

“Look at the GDP growth, look at the budget deficit. And on top of that you have an overall trade deficit.”

Over the last decade, U.K. and EU growth has been tepid compared to the strength of the U.S. economy — and both want to catch up.

And with Trump’s return to the White House and the uncertainty around U.S. support for Ukraine, there are common interests linking the two sides of the Channel.

Reeves will likely discuss financial support for Ukraine during the meeting, and how to fill any financial shortfall should the U.S. pull back under Trump.

It’s been almost five years since a British finance minister — Sajid Javid — attended the U.K.’s final meeting involving wider European finance ministers in January 2020.

 | Carl Court/Getty Images

EU ministers are also expected to share plans to revamp the European market for resold debt, known as securitization, according to a second European diplomat, in an effort to stoke the economy.

A few taboos

But while EU ministers will want to build bridges, neither side will want to touch on more controversial topics — including harder-to-solve Brexit issues.

It’s been almost five years since a British finance minister — Sajid Javid — attended the U.K.’s final meeting involving wider European finance ministers in January 2020.

And just as eurozone ministers won’t want to talk about France, the U.K. won’t want to talk too much about Brexit for fear of reigniting tensions.

“It’s good in these uncertain times to invest in good relations,” said a senior EU official, mentioning the role London plays in the G7.

The finance ministers’ gathering will not be the occasion “to negotiate on any outstanding open issues between between the two [sides],” they added. It’s about “sharing a common picture of the world.”

But there are still sore spots in financial markets.

The U.K. will soon need clarity from Brussels on the future of euro clearing, a crucial part of financial markets affected by Brexit. And the EU is increasingly infuriated with Britain’s stance on payments.

Economically, with France and Germany in political trouble, the U.K., after its own ups and downs since Brexit, will be hoping it’s increasingly attractive as an investment opportunity for private cash.

“You’ve got political instability in Germany. You’ve got political instability in France,” said Conor Lawlor, managing director of capital markets and wholesale policy at UK Finance.

“Now, when you compare the U.K. to those jurisdictions, it probably stands out as a more attractive option.”

But don’t expect Reeves to relay that message.

Will Donald Trump kill US-UK-Aussie sub defense deal?

The landmark defense agreement between the U.S, U.K. and Australia could be in jeopardy with the maverick Republican back in the White House.

Trump does not appear to have publicly commented on the AUKUS pact. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

December 9, 2024 
By Stefan Boscia and Caroline Hug
POLITICO UK


LONDON — There are few issues on which we do not know Donald Trump’s opinion.

After thousands of hours of interviews and speeches over the past eight years, the president-elect has enlightened us on what he thinks on almost any topic which enters his brain at any given moment.

But in the key area of defense, there are some gaps — and that's leading global military chiefs to pore over the statements of the president's allies and appointees to attempt to glean some clues, specifically over the $369 billion trilateral submarine program known as AUKUS he will inherit from Joe Biden.

Trump does not appear to have publicly commented on the AUKUS pact — named for its contingent parts Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States — which would see the U.S. share technology with its partners to allow both countries to build state-of-the-art nuclear submarines by the 2040s.

This uncertainty has left ministers and government officials in London and Canberra scrambling to discover how the Republican is likely to view the Biden-era deal when he returns to the White House in January.

Two defense industry figures told POLITICO there were serious concerns in the British government that Trump might seek to renegotiate the deal or alter the timelines.

This is because the pact likely requires the U.S. to temporarily downsize its own naval fleet as a part of the agreement — something Trump may interpret as an affront to his “America First” ideology.

Looking east

There is hope in Westminster that Trump would be in favor of a military project which is an obvious, if unspoken, challenge to China.

The deal would see American-designed nuclear submarines right on China's doorstep and would form a part of Australia's attempts to bolster its military might in the Indo-Pacific.

When former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in September 2021 that the deal was not "intended to be adversarial toward China," President Xi Jinping simply did not believe him.

The Chinese leader said AUKUS would "undermine peace" and accused the Western nations of stoking a Cold War mentality.

Mary Kissel, a former senior adviser to Trump's ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said "you can assume Trump two will look a lot like Trump one" when it comes to building alliances with other Western countries against China.

Despite his tendency to share whatever he's thinking at any given moment, there are some gaps in what we know Trump's feelings on,, specifically over the the $369 billion trilateral submarine program known as AUKUS he will inherit from Joe Biden. 

| Leon Neal/Getty Images

"We revivified the Quad [Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.], got our allies to bolster NATO funding and worked to prevent China from dominating international institutions," she said.

However, the deal also forces the U.S. government to sell Australia three to five active Virginia attack submarines, the best in the U.S. Navy's fleet, by the early 2030s as a stopgap until the new AUKUS subs are built.

Is America first?

This coincides with a time where there is a widely recognized crunch on America's industrial defense capacity.

In layman's terms, the U.S. is currently struggling to build enough submarines or military equipment for its own needs.

One U.K. defense industry figure, granted anonymity to speak freely, said there was “a lot of queasiness” in the U.K. government and a “huge amount of queasiness in Australia” about whether Trump would allow this to happen.

“There is a world in which the Americans can't scale up their domestic submarine capacity for their own needs and don't have spare to meet Australia's needs,” they said.

“If you started pulling on one thread of the deal, then the rest could easily fall away.”

One U.K. government official played down how much London and Canberra are worried about the future of the deal, however.

They said the U.K. government was confident Trump is positive about the deal and that the U.S. was “well equipped with the number of submarines for their fleet.


Glimmers of hope

In Washington too, defense experts are seeking clues to the attitude of the incoming administration.

While close observers agree it is too soon to predict what Trump would do about AUKUS, there has been some reason for optimism in the president-elect’s selection of two China hawks for top national security posts: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), as secretary of state, and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser.

Both served on the congressional foreign affairs committees that handled legislation to authorize AUKUS and will be well aware that it has broad bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, giving AUKUS advocates on Capitol Hill two well-placed former colleagues with whom they can make their case to Trump world.

The U.S. is currently struggling to build enough submarines or military equipment for its own needs. | Woohae Cho/Getty Images

But the brightest glimmer of hope may be an Economist essay Waltz co-authored last month that slams Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for a rash of global crises, but reserves a some praise for AUKUS.

“Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have taken some positive steps on China, such as strengthening export controls and establishing AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership with Britain and Australia, but these have been more than outweighed by the distraction caused by failed policies in Europe and the Middle East,” Waltz wrote with Matthew Kroenig, a former Pentagon strategist.

Meanwhile, a U.K. review into the entire AUKUS project is being led by Stephen Lovegrove, former national security adviser to Boris Johnson, after being commissioned by Defence Secretary John Healey in August.

Lovegrove was supposed to release the report in October, but it has still not been published.

Feeling queasy

However, Alexander Gray, a national security-focused White House aide in Trump's first term, told POLITICO that there was good reason for the aforementioned queasiness.

The former chief of staff to Trump's National Security Council said “we need to have a serious discussion given the demands on U.S. Navy attack submarine fleet,” adding that “we’re not on track to reach the minimum requirements for our own needs.”

“If you take America first literally, and people should, then you should not be surprised if a serious American defense official comes and says ‘we have to prioritize construction or repair needs for our own purposes,’” Gray added.

“That doesn't question the validity of AUKUS, or mean it’s not a priority, but we need to start looking at these commitments in an American-centric way that may not meet up with the priorities of Canberra and London.”

Gray also savaged Keir Starmer for his decision to meet with President Xi just days after Trump's reelection, labeling the British prime minister's attempts to improve Sino-British relations as “regrettable.”

“One of the successes of Trump’s term, and the Biden-Harris administration, was a significant amount of mutual understanding of partners in London and Europe writ large about the danger China poses globally,” he said.

“I hate to see backsliding like this at the very start of a `Trump administration.”
Everyone's a winner

This attempted U.K.-China reset will likely be high on the list of talking points when Healey meets with his Australian counterpart Richard Marles next month in London for an “AUKMIN” summit

.

A U.K. review into the entire AUKUS project is being led by Stephen Lovegrove, former national security adviser to Boris Johnson. | Pool Photo by Virginia Mayo via Getty Images

The Australian Labor government, after all, has conducted a similar reset with the Chinese government since coming to power in 2022 after relations hit a nadir during COVID.

Also at the top of the agenda will be how to sell the incoming president on the AUKUS deal in a positive way.

A second defense industry insider said the British and Australian governments should try to badge the deal in terms that make it look like Trump has personally won from the deal.

“Everybody is worried about America's lack of industrial capacity and how it affects AUKUS,” they said.

“He is also instinctively against the idea of America being the world’s police and so he may not see the value in AUKUS at all, but they need to let him own it and make him think he’s won by doing it.”

Sophia Gaston, the London-based U.K. foreign policy lead at Canberra's ASPI think tank, said most people in Trump's orbit “can find some element of the project which chimes with their interests.”

“Britain and Australia need to work in complete lockstep on AUKUS in Washington, and recognize that they must embrace more tactical and strategic language grounded in American self-interest,” she said.

“There will also be a need to demonstrate how AUKUS can deliver short-term wins, which ensure the project’s deterrence effect is credible.”
Pillar II

While the core nuclear submarine deal will get most of the headlines in the coming months, progress on the lesser-known Pillar II of AUKUS also remains somewhat elusive.

Launched alongside the submarine pact, Pillar II was designed to codevelop a range of military technologies, such as quantum-enabled navigation, artificial intelligence-enhanced artillery, and electronic warfare capabilities.

One Pillar II technology-sharing deal was struck on hypersonic missiles just last month, but expected progress on a range of other areas has not transpired.

Ambitions to admit Japan to the Pillar II partnership this year have also gone unfulfilled.

Despite AUKUS being dubbed “a historic breakthrough” by the U.K., pro-Trump Sen. Jim Risch, the most senior Republican on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, complained it was “overly restrictive” and limited progress on Pillar II. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Meanwhile, there seemed to be a step forward when the Biden administration introduced legislation to ease the trade of sensitive technology between the three nations earlier this summer.

But while it was dubbed “a historic breakthrough” by the U.K., pro-Trump Sen. Jim Risch, the most senior Republican on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, complained it was “overly restrictive” and limited progress on AUKUS Pillar II.

“I couldn't be more dissatisfied with the pace of implementation,” he said. “It is not moving at the speed of relevance.”

However, some U.S. policy wonks are somewhat more optimistic about the future of the program.

Bryan Clark, director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, said Trump might channel some funds from Pillar I into Pillar II.

He said: “Can we siphon some of that money off to support Pillar II, because it gives us a faster benefit?

“The tech startup community is going to be entering the administration in official and unofficial positions, so I think we’ll find their influence will protect some of these investments.”

There surely won't be long to wait until the president-elect comes down from on high to give his opinion on AUKUS.

All interested parties will no doubt be watching X and Truth Social for when that moment arrives.

Joe Gould contributed to this report from Washington. Emilio Casalicchio contributed to this report from London.

THE ULTIMATE GREENWASHING

UK

'Incinerator is the least damaging to environment'

Josef Steen
Local Democracy Reporting Service

BBC

LDRS
The new incinerator was expected to open in 2025 but was delayed to 2027

East London residents have been told by their local authority that burning rubbish with an incinerator is "the least environmentally damaging" method of waste management.

The incinerator in Edmonton was due to open next year but this has since been delayed to 2027.

The response from Hackney Council follows an open letter which urged the government to "immediately withdraw support" for the new facility.

The letter raised findings from a BBC report which found that "burning waste produces the same amount of greenhouse gases for each unit of energy as coal power", making electricity from waste incinerators the UK's "dirtiest form of power".
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'Clean power'


It is understood that the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs is considering the role waste incineration will play in the future.

Hackney Council's cabinet member for climate change, environment and transport, Sarah Young, said the "energy recovery facility" was "currently the least environmentally damaging way to manage non-recyclable waste".

"This project ensures we have a modern, publicly-owned facility with the latest technology to minimise emissions, provide lower carbon energy for local homes and businesses, and reduce the need for fossil fuels," she said.

The open letter was signed by 35 bodies, including Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and Sustainable Hackney.

It has also called on the government to pull its funding for the new facility and its district heat network connections, which uses the heat generated by burning waste to supply energy to multiple places — known as "energy from waste" or EFW.


They have also urged the government to revoke development permits to install the incinerator granted to the North London Waste Authority (NWLA), which is leading the project.

"Failure to take these steps would undermine the Government's efforts to decarbonise the electricity grid and provide clean power by 2030", they said.
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Burning rubbish now UK’s dirtiest form of power


Critics of the facility are also concerned that carbon capture technology to help mitigate the site's CO2 emissions will not be installed in the Edmonton incinerator until 2035 at the earliest, "if at all".

NWLA's strategy document said the implementation and operation of this technology would "depend on available funding and financing".

Clyde Loakes, NWLA's chair, said there were "no grounds" to revoke the permit, adding that cancelling the delivery of the facility would hurt the UK's decarbonisation efforts.
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Getty Images
The new incinerator is being built next to the old one, pictured


"The network in Edmonton is already built and is ready to take heat energy from the new energy recovery facility," he said.

"The impacts of not completing [it] would be detrimental to north London residents and our efforts to tackle the climate emergency."
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The BBC's investigation included warnings from scientists that incinerating rubbish was a "disaster for the climate".

It found that, while the UK has abandoned coal power, the number of active incinerators in England had increased from 38 to 52 in the past five years.

The Environmental Services Agency said that emissions from dealing with waste were "challenging to avoid".

City of London investigates its links to slavery

Ben Lynch
LDRS

BBC

Corporation officers have written that the project will highlight "a great many connections" with the City

The governing body of London’s Square Mile is looking to commission research into its historical associations with the transatlantic slave trade.

The City of London Corporation has said the proposed work detailing its connections with the trade in enslaved African people "will enable us to understand and own our past".

The plans have been drawn up ahead of the publication by Lancaster University of its own research into the slave trade, expected in 2026.

The work, entitled the Register of British Slave Traders, will include a database showing any links with individuals and institutions.

LDRS
The City of London Corporation says it will replicate similar investigations carried out by the Bank of England and the Church of England

Corporation officers have written in a paper that the university’s project will highlight "a great many connections" with the City.

"It will also highlight how far the financial connections of individuals across the social spectrum benefited from the trade, and how much of their investments in our key foundational systems and institutions (such as schools) came from financial rewards gained from the trade," the paper adds.

The corporation is looking to produce its own piece of research using Lancaster University’s project as a base.

The recommendation, which will go before committees, is that £34,400 be allocated to the project.

Prof William Pettigrew of Lancaster University, the principal investigator for and editor of the Register of British Slave Traders, has been lined up to complete the proposed research.

If approved, work is expected to begin in January.


'Commitment to equity'


In the corporation paper, officers referred to how other institutions with connections to the slave trade, such as the Bank of England and the Church of England, have already produced work exploring their histories.

In explaining the rationale behind the recommendation, officers wrote: “Better understanding the connections of the corporation with the trade in enslaved African people will enable us to understand and own our past."

They added: "It will enable us to develop our narrative to address our history and to devise a communication plan for our staff, members and the wider public."

A spokesperson for the City of London Corporation said: “We have a commitment to equity, equality, diversity, and inclusion, and to understanding our past."

Penguin has brought out Eric Williams’ Capitalism and Slavery for the first time in Britain in almost 40 years

Capitalism and Slavery

slave planter, in the picturesque nomenclature of the South, is a "land-killer." This serious defect of slavery can be counter- balanced and postponed for a ...

148 pages

POSTMODERN SOCIAL REALISM

UK

Painting of star-lit petrol station wins art award

Dianne Griffiths
The piece, called Driving Home, was bought by the petrol station featured

A painting of a petrol station under a star-lit sky in Cornwall has won an art award.

Driving Home, a painting of a Texaco petrol station on Trevemper Road near Newquay, won the People's Choice Award 2024 as a part of the British Art Prize.

It was painted by Cornish landscape artist Dianne Griffiths.

She told BBC Radio Cornwall: "The original painting itself is actually being bought by the garage. It's a really fitting end to the story."



Diane Griffiths
Dianne Griffiths at the Texaco petrol station in Newquay featured in her artwork


Ms Griffiths said she was in the top 50 finalists of the British Art Prize competition, which is run by Artists & Illustrators magazine.

She said her win in her category left her "jumping up and down".

"I couldn't sit still. I couldn't eat for a little while, I was too excited," she said.

"I just kept reading the email."



Part of the prize was a six-page feature in the February issue of Artists & Illustrators, said Ms Griffiths.

She added it was "lovely" the garage wanted to buy it.

"The painting will be coming full circle, back home to Newquay," she said.

Preparing for Christmas in the wilds of Antarctica

Helen Burchell
BBC News, Cambridgeshire

BAS
The British Antarctic Survey ship, the RRS Sir David Attenborough, is deployed to the Antarctic this Christmas


If you were guaranteed a white Christmas, but it meant working thousands of miles away from your family and friends in a freezing wilderness, would you relish the opportunity?

This is what the festive season holds for the hundreds of scientists, researchers and support staff living at remote stations in Antarctica this year.

Almost 300 members of the Cambridge-based British Antarctic Survey (BAS) are spending Christmas at five research stations and on board the vessel, the Harwich-based RRS Sir David Attenborough.

Although it is the busiest time of the year (with almost 24 hours of sunlight), many, who are not living in a tent doing field research, find the time to make decorations, secret Santa gifts and enjoy a meal or festive film together.

Pete Bucktrout/BAS
Penguins inhabit the area around Rothera on Adelaide Island


Almost 150 staff are spending this Christmas at the UK’s largest Antarctic research station, Rothera Research Station, on Adelaide Island, with a further 25 working away from the base.

Alongside research and operations in the deep field, many will come together to watch Christmas films, make mince pies and decorate gingerbread characters.

As well as a traditional Christmas dinner on the big day, sports are arranged including football and rounders.

But, it is still work as usual for the most part.

A meteorological balloon will be launched as usual, the marine divers will head into the bay to collect specimens and if the weather is good the pilots will fly to deploy or collect researchers and their teams from the field.

Pete Bucktrout/BAS
Rothera is the UK's largest Antarctic base


Aurelia Reichardt, the station leader, said: "Christmas is an important time and tradition for most people on station.

"Working in Antarctica can be isolating, away from family and life at home, so having a festive atmosphere on station helps people feel connected. It also helps us build a stronger community by sharing and exchanging traditions.

"Celebrations and switching off from the everyday of work life here on station does wonders for everyone’s mental well-being."

Festive activities include making door wreaths from recycled rubbish, and origami penguins from old paper.
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BAS
Christmas trees and inflatable characters adorn parts of the BAS ship


The BAS's polar ship, the RRS Sir David Attenborough, is based in Harwich, Essex, but Christmas Day on board will be spent sailing south of the Antarctic Peninsula and dropping off a team of researchers on Christmas Eve at their study site.

There are 54 on board and the ship's crew have already started putting up decorations, making homemade gifts for the secret Santa gift exchange, and enjoying a Christmas film evening at least once a week.
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BAS
A past photograph of the ship's crew show them gathered in front of the vessel


Halley VI Research Station on the Brunt Ice Shelf will be home to 36 people this Christmas.

They have also been busy making gifts for each other and decorating the modular station.

However, they still have to carry out regular jobs such as checking science equipment and ensuring data can be accurately collected over the Antarctic winter.

A team will also be working away from the base collecting ice cores for research purposes.
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PA Media
Halley is a modular station run by the BAS


The BAS has smaller stations, and King Edward Point Research Station is one of three sub-Antarctic island research facilities, and is home to 10 people.

The team there will be able to attend a carol service at the church in Grytviken on South Georgia and enjoy a special lunch on Christmas Day, as well as taking part in a run and a quiz.

There are 12 people at Bird Island Research Station but as wildlife does not understand it is Christmas day, a team of six zoological field assistants will be out in Santa hats to do their daily rounds.

As it is baby season, they will be checking and monitoring wandering albatross eggs, fur seal pups and the chicks of macaroni penguins, mollymawks and skuas.

The small team of just five at Signy Island Research Station will continue to work on a series of science projects, but they will still be able to enjoy a festive feast plus games and other activities.
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BAS
A photograph from a previous year shows staff at Bird Island posing for loved ones back home

UK

The disconnect between the betting markets

9/12/2024 TSE

Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof.

The only way I could see Farage becoming Prime Minister after the next general election is if Reform won the most seats (I cannot see if he finished second behind the Tories then the Tories making him PM for example). If Labour won the most seats I’d expect a de jure or de facto rainbow coalition to keep Farage out.

I am quite happy to lay Nigel Farage in the next PM markets, I am a bit more reticent to lay Reform in this market for the time being

The fact we are having these discussions is extraordinary.

The Return of Diplomacy?

Opinions

The House the Dollar Built: The United States and the Decline of Liberal Hegemony

09.12.2024
Andrey Sushentsov
VALDAI CLUB RU.


In December 1941, a meeting took place in Moscow between Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and British Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden. The minister did not know the details of the meeting’s agenda and had to guess what the Soviet leader might inform him about. Perhaps the meeting would focus on moving the capital to the East? Perhaps the Soviet Union was ready for separate negotiations with Germany? Anthony Eden was pleasantly surprised by the fact that the meeting’s topic was the structure of the world after the victory over the Third Reich.

Even in December 1941, the Soviet leadership was firmly convinced that thanks to its mobilisation potential, thanks to the effective evacuation of production to the East, and thanks to the fact that the Soviet Union had withstood the first blow, the USSR now had enough resources to defeat Germany on its own — and even more so with its allies. The Soviet leadership was also confident that the victorious powers would determine the architecture of the new post-war world. The principles of this architecture were previously recorded in a paradigmatic document, the Atlantic Charter (1941), developed by the United States and Great Britain and supported by the Soviet Union. The Atlantic Charter was written “with the hope of a better future for the entire world,” which the authors intended to achieve by creating “a broad and permanent system of common security.”

However, very soon the pathos of peaceful cooperation in the interests of all gave way to pragmatic interests. The United States, having grown stronger against the backdrop of post-war Europe lying in ruins, sensitively affected the interests of even its closest allies in certain elements of its foreign policy strategy. Thus, the principles of decolonisation and open markets, useful for strengthening the global influence of the United States, dealt a blow to the British colonial empire. This circumstance was the first signal that American hegemony, based not only on liberal principles, but also on tough pragmatism, sometimes ignored the interests of allies.

Over time, the dominance of hard pragmaticism has become increasingly obvious and tangible. The dollar, once considered a “common good,” is no longer perceived as a neutral instrument. The United States’ sanctions policy forces American allies to sacrifice mutually beneficial trade relations due to the risk of secondary sanctions. However, the strategy of liberal hegemony based on fear has demonstrated limited effectiveness. The conceptual foundations of liberal hegemony are the allies’ trust in the hegemon as a source of the common good and the adversary’s fear of a “credible threat.” The United States is losing control over both of these components.

Speaking about “credible threat”, we note that hybrid instruments such as economic pressure or coercive diplomacy, although they create short-term inconveniences for US opponents, cannot change the situation radically. The number of Chinese and Turkish companies that have fallen under secondary sanctions due to trade with Russia constitutes a small fraction of a percent of the total number of companies in these countries. There are two explanations for the current situation. On the one hand, in today’s turbulent international environment, the trend towards multipolarity is growing: major powers with a tendency toward independent strategic thinking are increasingly acting in their own interests, often ignoring the rules of the game proposed by the US as universal. US sanctions policy has only accelerated the process of abandoning the dollar: countries are switching to settlements in national currencies. On the other hand, the United States itself is aware of the counter-productiveness of “carpet-style” sanctions: large-scale sanctions undermine one of the key pillars of American power – the dominance of the US dollar and the status of the American financial system as a key link in international transactions. Thus, the United States cannot “penalise” every transaction with sanctioned countries, although such transactions are quite transparent for American agencies. In turn, refraining from “punishment” reduces trust in American coercive measures.

The issue of trust from allies is also a sore point for American foreign policy. Pressure on allies creates tension within the Western bloc. Participants in expert discussions in European countries are increasingly asking about the long-term interests of the continent, which differ from those of the United States, although these voices still remain at the second echelon of politicians and analysts. The Ukrainian crisis has become a stress test for the pyramid of trust in the American vision of foreign policy. The United States had expected to implement a “strategy of destruction”, creating a situation of military defeat for Russia in the Ukrainian theatre of military operations, economic destabilisation through sanctions, and diplomatic isolation.

However, this plan turned out to be ineffective, since Russia adapted its economy to the realities of sanctions and continued to pursue an active foreign policy. In turn, European allies, faced with economic problems and rising costs, are beginning to doubt the wisdom of continued confrontation with Russia.

The Ukrainian crisis could become a prologue to a period of protracted conflict. Taiwan, the East China Sea, the Middle East, and Latin America appear to be potential zones of military and political crises. The transforming world order has reached a point where the United States is being forced to reckon with the reality of its declining influence. The future of the world order now depends on whether the major powers can form a new system of international relations based on a sober assessment of national interests and their balance.

UK

TfL compliance officers to strike

Nearly 300 ticket inspectors at Transport for London (TfL) will go on strike later this week over what they say are unfair wages.

Mike Kemp/Getty

The industrial action will only affect buses, although TfL said fare checks would still continue

Nearly 300 ticket inspectors at Transport for London (TfL) will go on strike later this week over what they say are unfair wages.

The Compliance, Policing, Operations and Security Directorate (CPOS) workers, who enforce ticket checks at railways stations and on buses, will strike on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, and then again on 20, 21 and 22 December.

Sharon Graham, general secretary of the trade union Unite, said: "These vital workers are being undervalued and have been offered an unacceptable pay deal."

TfL said in a statement: "We have held a number of constructive discussions with our trade unions and have presented an attractive pay offer that has been accepted by other unions."


'We have measures in place'


The action comes after the compliance officers rejected a pay rise that did not consider an equal wage with equivalent London Underground staff.

Unite regional officer Steven Stockwell said: "These workers are putting themselves in harm's way on a daily basis and just want pay parity compared to other colleagues in London on a different part of the network."

TfL said: "We are disappointed that the Unite union has announced this strike action for members of our Compliance, Policing, Operations and Security Directorate.

"This action only impacts the bus network, however we have measures in place and still plan to have officers carrying out revenue inspection on buses."

BBC

More than 50,000 UK workers homeless this Christmas: 'No guarantee that work means a home'


Someone with a job becomes homeless the equivalent of every 10 minutes, according to analysis from The Salvation Army

Liam Geraghty
9 Dec 2024

THE BIG ISSUE

Image: Brett Sayles/Pexels
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More than 50,000 workers in the UK will be homeless this Christmas, according to analysis from The Salvation Army, with the charity warning that the stat “shatters the assumption” that a job is enough to escape homelessness.

The Salvation Army found 56,242 workers in the UK were registered as homeless across the four UK nations between April 2023 and March 2024 after analysing government figures.

A total of 32,138 homeless workers were working full-time and 24,104 working part-time.

People working full-time or part-time made up nearly a quarter of everyone registered as homeless during the period.

The Salvation Army said the figure is likely to be an underestimate as only the employment status of the main applicant of every household is logged by councils while not everyone experiencing homelessness will contact their local authority for support.

The charity’s director of homelessness services Nick Redmore said: “Someone with a job becomes homeless the equivalent of every 10 minutes. The person delivering your Christmas shopping, making your gingerbread latte, or cleaning up after your office Christmas party may not have a proper home to go to when they clock off.

“Our findings shatter the assumption that all anyone who is homeless needs to do is just get a job. Sky-high rents and mortgage rates combined with the rising cost of living, plus long waiting lists for council housing, mean a salary doesn’t guarantee a home.

“Most people earning the minimum wage are employed in sectors that are a vital part of the Christmas workforce that helps everyone enjoy the festive season, such as retail and leisure, food production and distribution, hospitality, and catering. It’s scandalous that hard-working people in the UK can’t even afford a place to live.”

Last week prime minister Keir Starmer spoke of “raising living standards in every part of the United Kingdom, so working people have more money in their pocket” as he set out his six milestones for the government’s time in Downing Street.‘We didn’t know where to go’: What’s it’s like being pregnant, a refugee and homeless at Christmas
Four things Labour must do immediately to end homelessness

For 46-year-old Michael (not his real name) from Blackpool, work is not paying at all.

He spent five months living in a tent while doing a bar staff job and had to rely on The Salvation Army to shower, wash his clothes and to get food.

Michael said: “There is a big misconception of people thinking those who are sleeping rough are unemployed; this simply isn’t always the case. I was working, earning a living, but I just couldn’t save the money to get a place to stay. Living in a tent you feel worthless. I kept myself hidden in the deepest parts of the park. Each morning, I would get up for work and go to do my shift, leaving everything in my tent. I’ve worked all my life, and I was still working but didn’t have anywhere to go. It was tough to accept, and I had pride.

“Working with the public it was important to dress the part and be well presented. I couldn’t let anyone know where I was living so I would go to The Salvation Army to wash and they gave me toiletries to use and towels and a hot breakfast, so I was ready for my working day, and no one would have guessed where I had slept.”

The charity has urged the government to help people on low incomes keep up with housing costs by raising housing benefits in line with inflation.

While rents surged by 8.7% in the year up to October, local housing allowance rates will remain frozen in April after the government opted not to raise them.

The Salvation Army said this will leave renters with a shortfall of around £100 per month.

“With homelessness continuing to rise, the government’s planned investment in prevention and social housing is much needed. However, the decision to freeze the local housing allowance is a huge financial blow to people on low incomes and already struggling to keep a roof over their heads,” said Redmore.

“We have helped working men and women of all ages who were sleeping in cardboard boxes, tents and cars or sofa-surfing while trying to hold down a job. We pray that 2025 will be the year the government ends homelessness for good. In the meantime, we will continue to do all we can at The Salvation Army to support the most vulnerable, including those people who have no place to call home this Christmas.”

The Westminster government pledged £230m to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping over the next year at the autumn budget while Angela Rayner chaired the first meeting of the cross-government unit on the issue last month.

Meanwhile, the Scottish government announced £4m in funding to prevent homelessness and rough sleeping as well as reversing last year’s affordable housing cuts to spend £768m on building new homes at last week’s Scottish budget.

High Housing Costs Push Over 1 Million Children into Poverty: Resolution Foundation Urges Government Action

Author: Public Sector Executive

Published: December 9th 2024

More than one in four children (27 per cent – 1.1 million in total) in poverty would not have been living below the poverty line in recent years (2022-23) were it not for high housing costs – a sign the Government must prioritise tackling housing unaffordability in its upcoming Child Poverty Strategy, says new Resolution Foundation research.

The Foundation’s Housing Outlook Q4 2024 reveals that high housing costs are felt most acutely by those living in the private rented sector (PRS). Nearly half (46 per cent) of the 1.5 million children growing up in poverty in the PRS are only pushed into poverty after housing costs are taken into account. This in part reflects the fact that private renters are on average paying three times as much as mortgagors for the same amount of housing – £11 per square metre versus £3, in 2021.

The analysis notes the Government has indicated “bring[ing] down essential household costs” will be a key objective of its forthcoming Child Poverty Strategy. While the PRS is the least affordable tenure type, it is also the sector where housing benefit reforms have the greatest scope to reduce child poverty.

The Foundation’s report notes that the simplest mechanism for alleviating poverty caused by high housing costs in the PRS would be for the Government to repeg Local Housing Allowance (LHA) to the 30th percentile of local rents, meaning recipients should be able afford three-in-ten properties available for rent in their area. This would cost £1.8 billion by 2029-30.

LHA was last repegged in April 2024, but plans inherited from the previous Government assume it will now be frozen in cash terms indefinitely. If the Government decides to keep LHA frozen, rather than uprating it at the 30th percentile of rents, then an additional 75,000 children will fall below the poverty line by the end of the decade.

However, the report notes that when LHA was introduced in 2008 it was set at the 50th percentile of local rents. An ambitious child poverty strategy could lift around 130,000 children out of poverty by the end of the decade (at a cost of £3.1 billion in 2029-30) by returning to that policy.

The analysis notes that these estimated costs assume private rents will grow in line with average earnings. But housebuilding is also a priority for this Parliament, and a boom of sufficient scale and duration could lower private rents over time and offset some of the cost of repegging LHA.

But if the Government wants to cut the housing benefit bill, the Foundation advises that investment in social housing should be prioritised. Its analysis finds that if 300,000 privately renting households with children could be moved into social rented homes, it would save the Government around £850 million per year by 2029-30 on subsidising private rents.


Alex Clegg, Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“Over a million children living in poverty today would not be below the poverty line were it not for sky-high housing costs, especially in the private rented sector.


“The Government could lift 75,000 children out of poverty by the end of the decade if they spent £1.8 billion to repeg Local Housing Allowance to the 30th percentile of rents.”

“But in the longer term, investment in house building – especially social housing – is essential to both reduce the rents that low-income families are paying and ease the pressure on the housing benefit bill.”

In response Cllr Arooj Shah, Chair of the Local Government Association’s Children and Young People Board, said;

“Tackling high housing costs to keep children and families out of poverty should be an absolute priority in the Government’s upcoming strategy, as this report demonstrates.

“This should include unfreezing Local Housing Allowance rates to keep up with rising rents, to help prevent homelessness and people falling into poverty, alongside giving councils the powers and resources to address the national shortage of social and affordable housing.

“Councils also want to shift away from short term crisis support to invest in a more preventative, long-term approach, so they can understand the causes of poverty in their areas and how to reduce it, alongside improving people’s financial resilience and life chances, underpinned by a sufficiently-resourced national welfare system.”

Image credit: iStock