Monday, December 09, 2024

UK

The disconnect between the betting markets


9/12/2024 TSE



Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof.

The only way I could see Farage becoming Prime Minister after the next general election is if Reform won the most seats (I cannot see if he finished second behind the Tories then the Tories making him PM for example). If Labour won the most seats I’d expect a de jure or de facto rainbow coalition to keep Farage out.

I am quite happy to lay Nigel Farage in the next PM markets, I am a bit more reticent to lay Reform in this market for the time being

The fact we are having these discussions is extraordinary.

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