Beril Akman
Mon, August 22, 2022
(Bloomberg) --
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become the latest top Turkish official to call for better ties with Syria, as Ankara appears to shift its stance on the government of Bashar al-Assad.
“We need to achieve forward steps with Syria. With these steps we will spoil many games in the region,” Erdogan told reporters in remarks carried by national TV channels over the weekend. “Political dialogue or diplomacy cannot be cut off between states.”
Turkey was a staunch supporter of Syrian rebels during the height of the country’s long war, regularly condemning Assad for the actions of his troops.
With backing from Russia and Iran, though, Assad’s government has regained control of much of Syria. That’s left Turkey to largely focus on Kurdish militants in northern Syria it sees as a threat for their links to the PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy on Turkish soil for decades and is designated a terrorist group by the European Union and US.
Earlier in August, Erdogan traveled to Sochi for talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, apparently seeking his blessing for another cross-border offensive targeting the Kurdish People’s Defense Units, or YPG. After the meeting, Erdogan told reporters that Putin had urged Ankara to solve its problems with Damascus.
On Friday, the Turkish leader suggested he wasn’t backing down from his willingness to again strike across the frontier. “We might come suddenly one night,” Erdogan said, a phrase he uses when referring to imminent military operations.
Oytun Orhan, a Syria specialist at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said any imminent breakthrough in ties with Assad was unlikely as the two administrations have competing security priorities.
Damascus wants Turkey to end support for its remaining Syrian opponents, Orhan said. Turkey, meanwhile, is determined to dismantle Kurdish self-governance in Syria, and in the past has mobilized Syrian rebels to fight against the YPG.
“My expectation is for intelligence contacts to become more frequent and for talks to eventually evolve to the political dimension,” Orhan said in an interview.
The plight of Turkey’s economy could be one factor spurring a rethink in Ankara. A cost-of-living crisis is stalking voters less than a year before elections, threatening to strip away support from Erdogan. Some Turks resent the presence of the 3.7 million Syrian migrants living in Turkey, and Erdogan’s challengers are seeking to capitalize on anti-migrant sentiment, pledging to deport Syrians if they are elected to power.
Erdogan has announced plans to relocate at least one million refugees to communities being constructed by Turkey in a strip of land it controls in northern Syria.
Anger Over 3.7 Million Refugees Is Piling Pressure on Erdogan
“Erdogan is cornered at home. Elections are approaching. Because the economy is doing terribly, there is increased opposition to migrants,” said Gonul Tol, director of Turkey program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C.
Syria also became a pariah in the Arab world after Assad’s crackdown on an uprising in 2011 triggered the war. But in March, Assad traveled to the United Arab Emirates for talks as Gulf Arab governments increasingly concluded they’d rather bring Syria back into the fold than abandon it to rival Iran.
Turkey, which has embarked on wide-ranging diplomacy to repair tattered regional ties in recent months, could be following suit. Some of Erdogan’s top aides have recently called for direct engagement with Assad’s government.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu sparked controversy earlier this month when he disclosed publicly that he spoke to his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mekdad, at an international meeting last year.
Last week, he said “reconciliation” between the Syrian government and opposition was necessary for peace. Erdogan’s key domestic ally, nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, echoed Cavusoglu’s remarks; and deputy chairman of the governing AK Party Hayati Yazici said Turkey could begin “direct” and “higher level” talks with Syria.
Putin’s influence may prove pivotal. Turkey and Russia have been at odds in Syria, but Erdogan and the Russian leader have worked closely elsewhere. The Turkish president mediated a deal to resume grain shipments from Ukraine’s blockaded Black Sea ports.
Turkey refrained from joining Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Russia’s a major supplier of energy and tourists for Turkey.
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