Opinion

Khalistan conflict abroad: India’s shadow war and the diplomatic rift with Canada

October 21, 2024 

Pro-Khalistan supporters gather for a demonstration in front of the Consulate General of India in Toronto, Ontario on October 18, 2024. [Mert Alper Dervış – Anadolu Agency]

by Sher Ali Bukhari


“India has made a big mistake by violating the sovereignty of Canada,” said Canadian PM, Justin Trudeau, in an ongoing series of open confrontations between India and Canada which started with the assassination of pro-Khalistan leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in June 2023. In the latest rift in relations, both countries have expelled their top diplomats and envoys after the Canadian government said that credible evidence had been obtained that the Indian government and intelligence have a direct link with the murder of Najjar on Canadian soil.

Last week, Canadian police and intelligence were accused of Indian involvement in extrajudicial and violent activities for silencing Indian dissents, mainly from pro-Sikh separatist leaders who ardently supported the independence of Indian Punjab from the Indian Union. Meanwhile, the Indian government rejected “serious” claims of Trudeau’s government, calling it “preposterous” and reckless, adding that Trudeau was damaging Indo-Canadian relations for political gains in domestic politics.

Recent developments strained relations between both countries to rock bottom, as Canadian and Indian government officials went to great lengths through undiplomatic means to justify each other’s claims. Net result: Relations between India and Pakistan appear to be on a more upward trajectory than the current row between India and Canada, as per leading international expert, Michael Kugelman.

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It is worth noting that the once thriving relations based on complex interdependent trade dynamics, active Indian Diaspora on Canadian soil, people-to-people relations, student exchange program and diverse cultural ties are nose-diving on the issue of Sikh separatism on Canadian soil, which is seen by India as a potential threat. Analysts also opined that expelling each other’s top envoys was an unprecedented move in Indo-Canadian relations, even though such an extreme step was not taken when outrage was shown against India for detonating a nuke by using facilities and reactors of Canada in 1974.

However, one must analyze the dynamics of Indian Punjab, especially in the early 1980s and late 1990s, when Indian Punjab was amid a separatist movement for the creation of potential Khalistan, a separatist homeland for the Sikh community of Punjab which constituted 60 per cent of the population of Indian Punjab. Yet, the pro-Indian Sikh government of Indian Punjab, reconciliation measures by the Indian federal government towards Punjab dynamics and intelligence-based operations hunted separatist elements within Punjab to cool the windy storm of separatism and extremism in Indian Punjab in the late 1990s. However, during the hit-and-run campaign of the Indian government in Punjab, many separatist and dissenting Sikh leaders ran away and settled abroad, many of them in Canada.

Canada, home to nearly 800,000 Sikhs and Punjabis mainly from India, has a very influential and thriving Sikh community which has deeply integrated into the political, economic and socio-cultural linkage of the Canadian state and society, although it constitutes only 2 per cent of the Canadian population. Yet, it holds fifteen direct seats in the Canadian Parliament, reflecting the strength of the Sikh community; therefore, for obvious reasons, Trudeau cannot underplay the Sikh community and its potential votes. Unsurprisingly, few Sikh leaders on Canadian soil are sympathetic towards the Khalistan Movement and, among them, Nijjar was a possible and vocal voice for calling for independence of Indian Punjab. However, the Canadian government viewed it merely as activism rather than giving free space to allegedly label him a terrorist by the Indian government.

Nonetheless, activism and protection of freedom of expression by the Canadian government towards Indian pro-Khalistan leaders are viewed as a threat to the Indian Union and sovereignty by the Indian government. And, with the change of government and strategic thinking in New Delhi, India allegedly indulged in eliminating these potential threats even on foreign soil. Some Indian experts opined that, initially, India used diplomatic channels and extradition means to extract these dissenting elements from foreign soil, yet the non-responsive behaviour by the Canadian government to drag out such dissenting voices resulted in such a move by the Indian government, although on an official level, the Indian government refuted any involvement in the killing of Najjar.

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Meanwhile, Canada being a strategic partner of the USA and a member of the Anglo-Saxon world, says that credible and potential investigation which linked Indian government involvement in the assassination of Nijjar would be shared and discussed with Five Eyes, a group of intelligence-sharing among USA, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zeeland, for further coordination and investigation of Canadian claims. At the same time, the USA has also undergone a similar case investigation of the assassination of an Indian dissenter on American soil, who actively worked for the Khalistan movement. And recent investigation has proven the conviction of an Ex-Raw officer involved in the plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, USA-based pro-Khalistan activist, with the help of notorious Indian-based gangster, Lawrence Bishnoi. It is worth noting that Bishnoi is currently facing a jail sentence in the Indian state of Gujarat, involved in the high profile killing of famous Indian celebrities like Sidhu Moose Wala (2022) and Baba Siddique (2024) and, now, Salman Khan is facing serious threats from his gang.

Meanwhile, the US State Department clearly stated that the Indian government must cooperate with Canada on the investigation of Najjar for transparency of the matter. Interestingly, both the USA and Canada are charging similar claims over extrajudicial activities of the Indian government and RAW agents for the assassination of pro-Khalistan leaders on their respective soil. However, the Indian government seems silent and obedient when it comes to the USA and shows outrage and public showdown when it comes to Canada.

It is also pertinent to mention that Indian involvement in killing foreign dissent has not been limited to Western capitals but is also a routine activity for South Asian states. For example, Pakistan, the arch-rival of India, has claimed that the Indian government was involved in the killing of 20 Kashmiri and Sikh leaders on Pakistani soil, who happened to be anti-Indian elements in Pakistan, a somewhat strategic asset for ISI. Although at the official level, Indian External Affairs Ministry refuted such claims of the Pakistani government, a cover story by the Guardian newspaper claims that, unofficially, several Indian intelligence officials openly accepted such assassination of anti-Indian elements on Pakistan’s soil. Additionally, other SAARC countries have witnessed a similar plot and assassination pattern of anti-Indian elements. This demonstrates that India has actively pursued the policy of extrajudicial killing, which was once limited to their South Asian neighbours but has now expanded to the USA and Canada.

Meanwhile, many Indian high-profile government and intelligence officers, off the record, have taken much pride in such covert extrajudicial operations of India and tabling an argument that, if the USA can target anywhere and anytime for the elimination of its hostile elements, India should also adopt a similar strategy with its rising profile in global politics and economic power. Indian media has also actively given a green light to such extrajudicial activities and even offered direct war with such countries which are giving space to anti-Indian elements on foreign soil. This truly represents the strategic thinking and limited approach of the New Delhi regime under the umbrella of PM Modi who claims to be the leader of the Global South.

However, India should know that there is a clear gap between the ambition and capacity of the Indian government to pursue such extrajudicial activities on foreign soil. Western countries are particularly showing much concern over violating their sovereignty and targeting their citizens by a foreign power on their respective soil. India must acknowledge the reality that, despite its rising global profile with the advancement of technology and economy along with the strategic compulsion of Western powers to take India on the mission of containment of China, India cannot go unpunished for such extrajudicial and covert activities of plot and murder on western soil. Clear involvement of the Indian government in such an assassination also shatters Western beliefs of responsible behaviour of the Indian government. However, many Western analysts still opined that it is the policy of Modi and RSS which eventually involved the killing of anti-Indian elements on foreign soil, and the change of the BJP government would end such an aggressive and unwanted policy of India. A vital lesson can be also learnt from India that such extrajudicial activities will seriously undermine its diplomatic footprint and global reputation, which India takes much pride in.

In a nutshell, the recent row between India and Canada has damaged and downgraded bilateral ties of once close strategic partners, championing democratic rights and cultural values. The unwanted extrajudicial activities of the Indian government on foreign soil have caused a rift between Western countries and the Indian government, which is also damaging the global reputation of India. The obsession with killing anti-India elements on foreign soil has been a matter of policy statement of the Modi government with the view of eliminating hostile elements of India on foreign soil; however, such a policy cannot go unnoticed and unpunished and, therefore, has completely backfired and now hurting the Indian government and its global image.