Ousted Assad regime leaves Syria, economy in ruins
December 18, 2024
Oil production, exports down
Meanwhile, Syria, once the largest oil exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean, lost its key position in oil production and oil exports as a result of the capture of oil-rich regions by non-regime forces. Syria’s oil production of 383,000 barrels per day before the civil war dropped to 90,000 barrels per day last year.
Syria ran a foreign trade deficit of between $7 billion to $10 billion annually from 2007 to 2011 but the country’s foreign trade declined rapidly as the unrest that started in March 2011 grew into a full-blown civil war, which resulted in international sanctions and, consequently, the country’s foreign trade volume fell from $29 billion in 2010 to $4 billion in 2023.
Syria ranked 176th in the world last year, with its exports reaching $650 million, and 163rd in the world with imports totalling $3.4 billion.
The country’s most important exports were olive oil, calcium phosphate, cotton, spices, canned vegetables, cast iron scrap, shelled fruits and wheat, while its imports were sunflower oil, wheat flour, petroleum, animal feed, rice, sugar, cement, tea, electricity and construction iron.
Syria’s rapidly growing population reached 22 million in 1990-2011 and recent estimates show the population stands at 18.5 million.
Meanwhile, the civil war in the country led to serious losses in employment, as the unemployment rate is estimated to have reached 57 per cent.
Depreciating currency, rising inflation
The Syrian pound depreciated 270 times against the US dollar in 2011-2023, which further fuelled inflation, while inflation reached 64 per cent in 2022 and 141 per cent in 2023. Inflation projections show it is estimated to be at 95.1 per cent by the end of this year and 69.4 per cent in 2025.
READ: US officials warn of ‘imminent’ threat of new Turkiye military incursion into Syria
Syria used to be one of the prominent countries in the Middle East in gold and oil reserves, with an estimated gold reserves of 25.8 tons in 2011, and although this figure is estimated to have remained relatively the same after the civil war and the fall of the regime, there is reportedly no reliable data to be found on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Meanwhile, the largest oil and gas fields in the country are occupied by the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation. The organisations operating in gas and oil-rich areas, which are concentrated in the north-east, are estimated to have extracted at least 150,000 barrels on a daily basis.
Despite the Caesar Act imposed by the US on Syria, which sanctioned Assad for war crimes against Syrians under the first Trump administration, the PKK/YPG is reported to have sold most of its crude and processed oil to the regime, and its annual income from the oil sold to the Assad regime and Northern Iraq is estimated to have exceeded $1.2 billion.
Prior to the civil war, Syria was one of the most dynamic markets in the Middle East and the steps towards the transition to a free market economy and rising oil reserves triggered rapid growth in the country’s economy, creating business opportunities for foreign firms and investments, as the booming oil and gas industry and infrastructure projects made Syria an attractive market, though the conflict, starting in 2011, put a pause to foreign direct investments.
Syria has 11 safe zones, and in these designated zones, foreigners can establish companies and projects in line with incentives and five-year tax exemptions.
Agriculture badly hit
However, the decline in all sectors of Syria also hit its agriculture, as the cultivated land in the country fell 25 per cent, versus the pre-civil-war period. The World Bank reported that the access of farmers to seeds, fertilisers, fuel and machinery spare parts, which are needed to grow crops, became increasingly more difficult, resulting in diminishing agricultural production.
Syria became a major producer and seller of the highly addictive Captagon drug, a brand name for the prohibited psycho-stimulant fenethylline, reportedly with the influence of the PKK/YPG. The World Bank reported that the drug business is estimated to have yielded a revenue of up to $5.6 billion in 2020-2023, while those involved in the Captagon sales are said to have profited $1.8 billion per year.
December 18, 2024
Middle East Monitor –
People gather to celebrate with the ‘Syrian revolution flag’ after performing the first Friday prayer following the collapse of the 61-year-long Baath regime in Syria and the end of the Assad family’s rule in Aleppo, Syria on December 13, 2024 [Kasım Rammah – Anadolu Agency]
Syria’s collapsed regime of Bashar Al-Assad left the country and its economy in ruins, turning it into a den for terrorist organisations and illegal activity, Anadolu Agency reports.
The country suffered from displacement and uncountable deaths, while its capital stock and economic activities were plagued by the civil war and international sanctions, as the country’s production, foreign trade and foreign exchange earnings plummeted. Its economic indicators, budget balances and exchange rates have also been destabilised.
Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have halved in 2010-2020 and the country’s dependence on imported goods soared, including staple food products, and its local industrial and agricultural production collapsed, according to various sources, such as the World Bank, the UN, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Gold Council.
Syria’s GDP is estimated to have been $37.1 billion in 2022, $39.5 billion in 2023, and $29.3 billion in 2024—a stark difference from $60 billion in 2010, before the civil war.
The country’s GDP per capita declined from $2,800 in 2010 to $2,100 in 2022 and 2023, and it is estimated to fall further towards $1,600 by the end of the year.
READ: Russia dismantles air defence system at Hmeimim air base in Syria
At the same time, the overthrown regime’s revenues fell 35 per cent year-on-year in real terms in 2023 versus 2022, and 85 per cent compared to the pre-civil-war period, before 2010.
People gather to celebrate with the ‘Syrian revolution flag’ after performing the first Friday prayer following the collapse of the 61-year-long Baath regime in Syria and the end of the Assad family’s rule in Aleppo, Syria on December 13, 2024 [Kasım Rammah – Anadolu Agency]
Syria’s collapsed regime of Bashar Al-Assad left the country and its economy in ruins, turning it into a den for terrorist organisations and illegal activity, Anadolu Agency reports.
The country suffered from displacement and uncountable deaths, while its capital stock and economic activities were plagued by the civil war and international sanctions, as the country’s production, foreign trade and foreign exchange earnings plummeted. Its economic indicators, budget balances and exchange rates have also been destabilised.
Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have halved in 2010-2020 and the country’s dependence on imported goods soared, including staple food products, and its local industrial and agricultural production collapsed, according to various sources, such as the World Bank, the UN, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Gold Council.
Syria’s GDP is estimated to have been $37.1 billion in 2022, $39.5 billion in 2023, and $29.3 billion in 2024—a stark difference from $60 billion in 2010, before the civil war.
The country’s GDP per capita declined from $2,800 in 2010 to $2,100 in 2022 and 2023, and it is estimated to fall further towards $1,600 by the end of the year.
READ: Russia dismantles air defence system at Hmeimim air base in Syria
At the same time, the overthrown regime’s revenues fell 35 per cent year-on-year in real terms in 2023 versus 2022, and 85 per cent compared to the pre-civil-war period, before 2010.
Oil production, exports down
Meanwhile, Syria, once the largest oil exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean, lost its key position in oil production and oil exports as a result of the capture of oil-rich regions by non-regime forces. Syria’s oil production of 383,000 barrels per day before the civil war dropped to 90,000 barrels per day last year.
Syria ran a foreign trade deficit of between $7 billion to $10 billion annually from 2007 to 2011 but the country’s foreign trade declined rapidly as the unrest that started in March 2011 grew into a full-blown civil war, which resulted in international sanctions and, consequently, the country’s foreign trade volume fell from $29 billion in 2010 to $4 billion in 2023.
Syria ranked 176th in the world last year, with its exports reaching $650 million, and 163rd in the world with imports totalling $3.4 billion.
The country’s most important exports were olive oil, calcium phosphate, cotton, spices, canned vegetables, cast iron scrap, shelled fruits and wheat, while its imports were sunflower oil, wheat flour, petroleum, animal feed, rice, sugar, cement, tea, electricity and construction iron.
Syria’s rapidly growing population reached 22 million in 1990-2011 and recent estimates show the population stands at 18.5 million.
Meanwhile, the civil war in the country led to serious losses in employment, as the unemployment rate is estimated to have reached 57 per cent.
Depreciating currency, rising inflation
The Syrian pound depreciated 270 times against the US dollar in 2011-2023, which further fuelled inflation, while inflation reached 64 per cent in 2022 and 141 per cent in 2023. Inflation projections show it is estimated to be at 95.1 per cent by the end of this year and 69.4 per cent in 2025.
READ: US officials warn of ‘imminent’ threat of new Turkiye military incursion into Syria
Syria used to be one of the prominent countries in the Middle East in gold and oil reserves, with an estimated gold reserves of 25.8 tons in 2011, and although this figure is estimated to have remained relatively the same after the civil war and the fall of the regime, there is reportedly no reliable data to be found on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Meanwhile, the largest oil and gas fields in the country are occupied by the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation. The organisations operating in gas and oil-rich areas, which are concentrated in the north-east, are estimated to have extracted at least 150,000 barrels on a daily basis.
Despite the Caesar Act imposed by the US on Syria, which sanctioned Assad for war crimes against Syrians under the first Trump administration, the PKK/YPG is reported to have sold most of its crude and processed oil to the regime, and its annual income from the oil sold to the Assad regime and Northern Iraq is estimated to have exceeded $1.2 billion.
Prior to the civil war, Syria was one of the most dynamic markets in the Middle East and the steps towards the transition to a free market economy and rising oil reserves triggered rapid growth in the country’s economy, creating business opportunities for foreign firms and investments, as the booming oil and gas industry and infrastructure projects made Syria an attractive market, though the conflict, starting in 2011, put a pause to foreign direct investments.
Syria has 11 safe zones, and in these designated zones, foreigners can establish companies and projects in line with incentives and five-year tax exemptions.
Agriculture badly hit
However, the decline in all sectors of Syria also hit its agriculture, as the cultivated land in the country fell 25 per cent, versus the pre-civil-war period. The World Bank reported that the access of farmers to seeds, fertilisers, fuel and machinery spare parts, which are needed to grow crops, became increasingly more difficult, resulting in diminishing agricultural production.
Syria became a major producer and seller of the highly addictive Captagon drug, a brand name for the prohibited psycho-stimulant fenethylline, reportedly with the influence of the PKK/YPG. The World Bank reported that the drug business is estimated to have yielded a revenue of up to $5.6 billion in 2020-2023, while those involved in the Captagon sales are said to have profited $1.8 billion per year.
GUST ARBITER
Study: 80,000 Syrians work in Germany in professions lacking specialised personnel
December 18, 2024
December 18, 2024
Middle East Monitor
In response to Al-Jolani’s call, Syrian people take to the streets in celebration in Hanover, Germany, on December 14, 2024 [Somaya Abdelrahman/Anadolu Agency]
The results of a study indicated that the return of Syrian refugees living in Germany to their homeland could negatively affect the German economy and increase the gap in the shortage of skilled workers.
A study issued by the German Economic Institute (IW) showed that about 80,000 Syrians in Germany work in professions that suffer from a shortage of skilled workers.
For example, the number of Syrians working as technicians in the car mechanic sector has recently reached more than 4,000.
The Institute reported that about 7 out of 10 vacant positions in the field of automotive technology cannot be filled with specialists possessing the appropriate qualifications.
Many Syrians also work in other professions that suffer from a shortage of workers. Statistics indicate that about 2,470 Syrians work in the field of dentistry with contracts subject to compulsory social security; 2,260 Syrians work in the field of childcare and education; 2,160 in the field of nursing and health care; 2,100 in climate-related jobs in the field of electrical engineering and 1,570 Syrians work in the field of plumbing, heating and air-conditioning.
Fabian Semsarha, an economist at the IW and author of the study, stated that “Syrian workers are important to the German labour market, as they contribute significantly to alleviating the shortage of specialised personnel in Germany.” The study also indicates that many Syrians work in other professions, such as doctors, with the number of Syrian doctors working in Germany estimated at around 5,300. The study confirmed that their return to their homeland could worsen the shortage of personnel and lead to problems in providing health care.
Semsarha believes that the contribution by Syrian personnel is often underestimated in the debate about the possibility of their return.
“In many professions, it may become difficult to fill positions if these people leave the country,” he said, calling on politicians to provide safe residence opportunities for working Syrians.
According to the Federal Employment Agency, there were an average of 213,500 people of Syrian origin working in jobs covered by social insurance in Germany between June 2023 and May 2024.
Of the total number, 86,000 are employed in support jobs, while 127,000 are employed in skilled jobs that require vocational training or university studies. There are also around 155,000 Syrians who have registered as unemployed, making it possible for them to immediately enter the labour market.
In response to Al-Jolani’s call, Syrian people take to the streets in celebration in Hanover, Germany, on December 14, 2024 [Somaya Abdelrahman/Anadolu Agency]
The results of a study indicated that the return of Syrian refugees living in Germany to their homeland could negatively affect the German economy and increase the gap in the shortage of skilled workers.
A study issued by the German Economic Institute (IW) showed that about 80,000 Syrians in Germany work in professions that suffer from a shortage of skilled workers.
For example, the number of Syrians working as technicians in the car mechanic sector has recently reached more than 4,000.
The Institute reported that about 7 out of 10 vacant positions in the field of automotive technology cannot be filled with specialists possessing the appropriate qualifications.
Many Syrians also work in other professions that suffer from a shortage of workers. Statistics indicate that about 2,470 Syrians work in the field of dentistry with contracts subject to compulsory social security; 2,260 Syrians work in the field of childcare and education; 2,160 in the field of nursing and health care; 2,100 in climate-related jobs in the field of electrical engineering and 1,570 Syrians work in the field of plumbing, heating and air-conditioning.
Fabian Semsarha, an economist at the IW and author of the study, stated that “Syrian workers are important to the German labour market, as they contribute significantly to alleviating the shortage of specialised personnel in Germany.” The study also indicates that many Syrians work in other professions, such as doctors, with the number of Syrian doctors working in Germany estimated at around 5,300. The study confirmed that their return to their homeland could worsen the shortage of personnel and lead to problems in providing health care.
Semsarha believes that the contribution by Syrian personnel is often underestimated in the debate about the possibility of their return.
“In many professions, it may become difficult to fill positions if these people leave the country,” he said, calling on politicians to provide safe residence opportunities for working Syrians.
According to the Federal Employment Agency, there were an average of 213,500 people of Syrian origin working in jobs covered by social insurance in Germany between June 2023 and May 2024.
Of the total number, 86,000 are employed in support jobs, while 127,000 are employed in skilled jobs that require vocational training or university studies. There are also around 155,000 Syrians who have registered as unemployed, making it possible for them to immediately enter the labour market.
(RNS) — Assad was the King Herod of our time. Like Herod, he slaughtered the innocent.
Syrians gather during a celebratory demonstration following the first Friday prayers since Bashar al-Assad's ouster, in Damascus' central square, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Thomas Reese
December 16, 2024
(RNS) — At a time when most of the international news is full of gloom and doom, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria is a happy surprise, almost a Christmas miracle. Bashar al-Assad, the last scion of the family that ruled Syria for 50 years through fear and terror, is gone.
Assad was a King Herod of our time. He arrested, tortured and killed thousands of Syrians and forced millions more into exile. He used barrel bombs and chemical weapons against his own people. Cities harboring opponents to his regime were leveled with no regard for the cost in civilian deaths, children or adults. Nowhere was safe, not churches, not hospitals. Like Herod, he slaughtered the innocent.
Assad was aided and abetted by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. The West imposed economic sanctions to try to squeeze him out of power, but in latter years was more concerned about quashing the Islamic State group and al-Qaida than the plight of the Syrian people under Assad. American troops are still in Syria to attack Islamic State group fighters. We also support the Kurds in Syria, who have been one of our most loyal and effective allies.
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Meanwhile, Western intelligence and the media failed to see how weak the Assad regime had become. Its economy was in shambles. Its allies were occupied elsewhere: Russia in Ukraine, Iran and Hezbollah with Israel. Its soldiers were poorly paid and unwilling to die for a regime that did nothing for them. In hindsight, the fault lines were evident.
The fall of Assad has rearranged the Middle Eastern chessboard. Turkey, which backed the rebels, will have more influence in Syria and elsewhere. Russia is confined to a narrow strip on the coast of Syria and may soon have to evacuate the country, where they are not welcome.
Iran has lost its most strategic ally in the Middle East. Without a land route through Syria, Iran cannot resupply Hezbollah, which is already crippled because of its war with Israel. With a severely weakened Hezbollah and Syrian refugees departing for home, the politics of Lebanon will now change. Iraq, too, could be safer if Syria is no longer a safe zone for terrorists.
But all is not well in Syria. Soldiers of its new rulers, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have liberated Damascus, Aleppo and Hama, but they do not control the whole country. Numerous rebel groups will compete for dominance, including pockets of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Bringing the country together will not be easy.
The more radical groups will not lay down their arms. The Kurds, who opposed Assad, fear the Sunni Arab majority that has now taken over the country. The Assads belonged to a minority Shia sect called the Alawites. They and other minority groups that allied themselves with Assad also now fear for the future.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is labeled a terrorist group by the United States and other Western countries. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has a U.S. bounty of $10 million on his head. In the past, he opposed the Islamic State group’s attempts to take over his forces. He was allied with Al-Qaida but broke with the group in 2016. He is focused on Syria not on a global jihad.
According to The New York Times, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is described as pragmatic and disciplined by those who have studied it or interacted with it in Idlib Province, the territory it controlled in northern Syria prior to the fall of Assad.
So far, al-Julani has said and done all the right things. He has disarmed Syrian soldiers and sent them home. He has told civil servants to stay at their jobs and told his supporters not to take revenge on Assad supporters. All religious and ethnic groups are to be left in peace. Looting will not be tolerated. He has told his soldiers not to hassle women about their clothing.
It is as if he learned from the mistakes the U.S. made after conquering Iraq.
On the other hand, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has jailed its critics in Idlib. And Facebook and other social media are full of threats against groups allied with Assad, especially the Alawites.
What should the United States and Western governments do in response to the Syrian revolution?
First, it should immediately suspend the $10 million bounty on al-Julani. Nothing could be more disastrous for American foreign policy in the Middle East than an American-backed assassination of the liberator of Syria.
Second, the U.S. should suspend the classification of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist group as long as they do not carry out terrorist activities in the future. It can always be reclassified as a terrorist group in the future if needed.
Third, the United States should welcome the positive words coming out of Damascus and lift economic sanctions if their actions continue to be consistent with what the new rulers are saying. International aid organizations should be allowed to help the Syrian people immediately.
Fourth, we should do all we can to facilitate the safe return of refugees to Syria. Many of these refugees have the skills needed to rebuild Syrian society and its economy.
Most importantly, we should not try to micromanage the future of Syria. We want to ensure the protection of Christians, Kurds and other minority groups, but Syria is unlikely to become a Western-style democracy. We should talk with everyone and be willing to facilitate dialogue but not choose sides.
If Syria maintains peace with its neighbors (including Israel) and rejects global jihad, we should see the new Syria as a potential ally, not an enemy. If it is willing to give up or destroy its chemical weapons, we should be happy to help it root out Al-Qaida and the Islamic State group from Syria with intelligence and logistics, but not boots on the ground.
The new Syria provides hope but no guarantees. It may all go up in flames if internal factions war with each other or the victors take vengeance on the defeated. The United States should do what it can to encourage peace and reconciliation, but should not pour gasoline on the fire by taking sides.
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