Submitted by SJW on 23 December, 2024
Author: Simon Nelson
Image shows the claimed territory of Rojava (in red) not currently under control and the de facto territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (in green) from 2016
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has said that the state will hold all weapons in Syria. Rebel groups will need to join the army or be rounded up. Immediately, this will mean that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will not be allowed to exist as an armed force.
The situation for the Kurds in northeast Syria is bleak. Since the removal of Assad, the Kurdish forces grouped in the SDF led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian affiliate to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), have been fighting the Syrian National Army (SNA) a Turkish proxy that wants to push the Kurds away from the Turkish border.
The US-brokered an uneasy and unstable ceasefire twice, but the SDF reports that the SNA broke it several times. The US are keen to keep the SDF together, not least because they guard and control the prisons which hold thousands of alleged Daesh fighters and their families.
A new proposal that all non-Syrian Kurdish forces leave Rojava, the autonomous Kurdish region, has been put forward. The SDF has confirmed they will consider it. Turkey is also trying to get the agreement of an umbrella of other Kurdish parties grouped under the Kurdish National Council (KNC). The KNC no longer represents as many of the parties that are part of the opposition of the PYD in Rojava, the autonomous Kurdish-controlled region, as it did but is the largest official opposition umbrella to the PYD. They enjoy the support of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, run by the Kurdistan Democratic Party.
Turkey says that it wants to avoid the instability that befell Iraq in 2003 after the fall of Saddam, but this is a cover for its ongoing war against Kurdish self-determination. Erdogan enjoys prestige as a consistent supporter of Syrian rebels and has been vocally more pro-Syrian refugees than many of his supporters or the opposition in Turkey. Although it was not as simple as it may seem. There are likely more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.
Erdogan will be keen to try to shape the SNA's role in the new transitional government. He will have welcomed the moderate Islamist stance of Ahmed al-Sharaa for now. Alongside Erdogan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the US, Israel, and the EU want to engage. Sharaa has made a big deal of respecting the minority rights of Christians, the Druze and has said that the government is “Working on protecting sects and minorities from any attacks that occur between them". But to disarm the Kurds in favour of a national army in a deal brokered with Turkey seriously endangers Kurdish self-determination.
Erdogan will also be waiting for Trump to enter the White House. While Biden has been a key supporter of the SDF, now that Daesh is no longer the primary concern, Trump may find it simpler to accede to Erdogan’s stance towards the Kurds. There are those in the incoming Trump administration who would like to see the US have little to no involvement in Syria. That pressure is evident among the SDF leadership, who have sounded more conciliatory towards a US-brokered deal with Turkey while Biden remains in office.
Turkey is also concerned about Israel’s role. With Trump back in the White House, Israel may claim the incursions, about 30km, it has made into southern Syria as its own. Trump recognised the Golan Heights as Israel’s during his last presidency, although internationally, the territory annexed in 1981 has no official recognition. HTS have said they are not seeking conflict with Israel and may allow it to do so so as not to trigger further strife.
Israel is also a supporter of the SDF Kurdish forces; the Israel Foreign Minister has called on Turkey to stop the attacks.
Sharaa has pledged to unite the various factions of rebels and not allow Syria to become a home for international jihadist groups. Erdogan has already sent his intelligence head to Damascus to meet with Sharaa, making much of this in the Turkish media. Erdogan will be keen to get to Sharaa to weed out the Salafist-jihadist groups who are part of their coalition. While Sharaa has pledged to do something like this, it is unclear how much of a central apparatus he has to do it. HTS could claim no more than 20,000 fighters. Most of whom were based in Idlib. While they will have expanded as people flock to them as they form the government, they will not have complete sway with all factions. Some will resist any moderating pressure and will not give up their arms. The risk of warlordism and some further breakdown of the state is still real.
The mass graves of the Assad regime are still being found. Some may have had almost 100,000 people buried in shallow graves. The families of those who they believe were buried there are now demanding that the new government exhumes and conduct tests so they can find out what happened to their friends and loved ones. Justice for the millions who were killed by Assad and in the civil war is still a long way away.
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