Since the eruption of the Syrian civil war in 2011, millions of Syrians have fled their country, seeking refuge in neighboring countries and beyond. Thirteen years on, a significant number of these 13.5 million refugees are identified by the UN as displaced persons in need of humanitarian assistance, particularly those who fled to Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Europe
While the prospect of going back to Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime seems hopeful for many, it is tempered by deep concerns about the fear of instability and economic collapse, the difficulties of rebuilding their lives, and the challenges they face in leaving behind the new lives they have established in exile.
While the situation in Syria remains uncertain, the lives of refugees in host countries have evolved over the past 13 years. In some contexts, like in Lebanon, economic pressures are forcing their children to forgo schooling and enter the labor market. Meanwhile, many of the refugees who fled have integrated into their respective societies, established new businesses, and built families. Leaving behind these lives is not an easy decision, and, for many, the thought of uprooting their families again is overwhelming.
Turkey: A new life amid uncertainty
Turkey has been the largest host country for Syrian refugees, with over 3.7 million Syrians currently residing there. Many refugees have integrated into Turkish society, with several opening small businesses and contributing to the local economy. However, the economic challenges in Turkey — especially during periods of inflation and political instability — have made life difficult for many Syrians. Despite this, Turkey remains a relatively stable environment compared to Syria, and some refugees worry that returning home could mean giving up the hard-earned security they have achieved in Turkey.
For many Syrians in Turkey, the fear of losing their livelihoods is a major deterrent to returning. Owning businesses in Turkey has allowed many refugees to gain financial independence, but starting over in a war-torn country is a risk few are willing to take. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between the Turkish government and the refugee population add another layer of uncertainty for those who are considering returning to Syria.
Jordan: Struggling with workforce gaps
Jordan has hosted approximately 1.3 million Syrians, the majority of whom live in cities and refugee camps such as Zaatari. For years, refugees have faced limited opportunities for employment, but, in recent years, many Syrians have established themselves within the Jordanian workforce, working in sectors like construction, agriculture, and retail. Some have even opened their own businesses, creating new economic opportunities.
Many of the industries that Syrians have contributed to in Jordan are already facing workforce shortages, and the impact of losing skilled labor could be detrimental to both Jordan and Syria. Moreover, Syrians who have lived in Jordan for years face a complex dilemma: they want to help rebuild Syria, but may be fearful of the lack of economic opportunities back home. The culture of food and commerce in Jordan has also influenced many refugees’ way of life, and some worry that returning to Syria would force them to readjust to a society that is not ready to cater to their tastes and needs.
Lebanon: The strain on local communities
Lebanon, with its proximity to Syria, hosts over 1.5 million Syrian refugees, facing immense strain from hosting so many displaced people. The situation for the Syrian refugees has been so difficult that some Syrian families needed their children to also work, instead of going to school. As workers, Syrians are mainly engaged in agriculture, personal and domestic services, and, on a smaller scale, construction, according to the International Labour Organization. However, Lebanon’s own political and economic instability complicates the prospects for refugees seeking to return to Syria.
In a post on Facebook, Aljazeera Mubasher reported on Lebanon’s prime minister Najib Mikati statements, saying “The pressure on our resources is very great, which exacerbates the current economic problems and creates fierce competition for jobs and services.”
For those who have established businesses or found steady employment in Lebanon, the decision to return is fraught with uncertainty. Syria’s devastated economy offers few opportunities, and for many refugees, the fear of having to restart their businesses from scratch outweighs the hope of returning to a peaceful Syria. The gap in Lebanon’s workforce is another challenge: many industries rely on Syrian labor, and a mass return could create labor shortages, further exacerbating Lebanon’s economic struggles already in crises.
Germany: Integration and new opportunities
Germany has taken in approximately one million refugees from Syria, and many of them have integrated successfully into the country’s labor market. Refugees who initially arrived with little more than the clothes on their backs have since found work in fields ranging from healthcare to engineering. Many Syrians in Germany have also benefited from the country’s comprehensive integration programs, which have helped them learn the language, gain vocational skills, and find stable employment.
Today, Syrian refugees have become one of the main components on which Germany, the largest European economy relies. However, immediately after the announcement of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, 12 European countries, including Germany, Austria, Belgium, and others, announced putting asylum applications for Syrians on hold. Many European politicians have been calling for the repatriation of Syrians causing fear among Syrians about their future in Europe.
The Austrian government went further, to offer a sum of EUR 1,000, which it called a “return bonus,” to be paid to every refugee who voluntarily wishes to return to their country, Syria. The conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer stated that the security situation in Syria after the fall of the regime will help in assessing the legal status of Syrian refugees on Austrian territory. In a post on X, Nehammer addressed a message to Syrian refugees in which he said, “Their country now needs its citizens to rebuild it.”
All European countries have signed the Geneva Convention, which includes provisions to protect refugees and prohibit their forced deportation to places where their life or freedom would be at risk. Those granted asylum are generally protected from return under the principle of non-refoulement.
On the other hand, Europeans fear the consequences of Syrian professionals returning to their country. The head of the German Hospital Association, Gerald Gass, warned of the repercussions of the return of Syrian doctors “who played a fundamental role in preserving health care, especially in hospitals in small cities.” On December 13, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed that “integrated” Syrian refugees in Germany are “welcome.”
The complex decision to return
The decision of Syrian refugees to return to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime is a deeply personal and complex one. While many long for the day they can go home, the uncertainty of Syria’s future, the challenges of rebuilding the country, and the fear of political instability weigh heavily on their minds.
For those who have established businesses and lives in host countries, returning to Syria is not simply a matter of patriotism — it is a question of survival, economic security, and social integration. Also, Syria, after Assad, needs its young citizens. According to an ILO assessment of the impact of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and their employment profile, more than half of Syrian refugees are below the age of 24.
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