His Masters Voice

Two Lame Ducks. Harper and Bush. One has a minority government the other a lame duck administration. Bush will be leaving in less than sixty days. Harper will continue to listen to his masters voice and be the ventriliquists dummy for Bush. It is a strange case of political seance, Harper continues to channel his inner Bush promoting free trade as the solution to the capitalist crisis. In a unabashed and unashamed bit of historical revisionism he claims that protectionism caused the Great Depression, failing to mention that while this exasperated the capitalism melt down the real solution was state intervention rather after the so called free market failed to self correct.

"Removing protectionist barriers and easing trade restrictions was a big factor in ushering in this extraordinary era," said Harper, referring to recent years of unparalleled economic growth. "We cannot allow ourselves to turn back." Harper said the Great Depression was prolonged by poor managerial choices on the part of governments that included shrinking the existing banking systems, raising interest rates and building barriers in a failed attempt to save jobs. These are the kinds of practices that need to be avoided in the present economic climate, he said, and Harper also urged other countries to take a look at their pasts when making decisions on how to move forward. "As we enter a period we have not seen in the memory of virtually anyone alive today, we must be good students of history -- and not just recent history," he said.

Harpers decision to push for a Free Trade deal with Colombia is another example of continuing on the Bush agenda, despite his masters own failure to succeed in pushing a similar American deal through congress. And Harper will have a fight when he brings it to parliment for approval. Colombia's record of human rights violations, state attacks and murder of political and trade union activists, their support for right wing death squads cannot be reformed by bi-lateral trade deals. Colombia's largest export is cocaine, the irony of a free trade deal with the Law and Order Harpocrites is delicious.

"In a time of global economic instability free trade is more important than ever," Harper said in a statement.
"By expanding our trading relationship with Colombia, we are not only opening up new opportunities for Canadian businesses in a foreign market, we are also helping one of South America's most historic democracies improve the human rights and security situation in their country."
U.S. President George Bush, arriving in Lima Friday, has made a free trade agreement with Colombia a priority for his last two months in office. Harper acknowledged that Colombia faces many challenges, particularly in security. Colombia is the world's biggest supplier of cocaine according to the CIA, despite efforts from both their government and the United States.

Colombia's ties with the US could be severely damaged if Congress does not approve a planned free trade deal, the country's vice-president has warned. Francisco Santos Calderon told the BBC that a US failure to sign the pact would be a "slap in the face" to a strong ally.
The trade deal was signed two years ago by leaders of the two nations.
But US Democrats oppose the deal and have used their Congressional majority to block its passage. Mr Santos told the BBC that he did not believe that the deal would be passed during the remaining days of the Bush administration - and that he was not optimistic for its future under President-elect Barack Obama.
He said it was critical that the incoming administration saw US-Colombia relations "not in the context of what special interest groups want but in the light of our long-term relationship".
"Not approving the free trade agreement would be certainly a slap in the face to the strongest strategic ally that the US has in the continent," he said.
But Mr Santos played down the significance of the "Plan Colombia" US military aid package - worth more than half a billion dollars annually - aimed at fighting drug production

And China too has signed a Free Trade agreement with Colombia, which simply proves bireds of a feather and all that, both regimes are autarchic, militarist. In China's case it is her imperialist objective to act as a trading partner with whomever the U.S. fails to or takes exception too.

China, Colombia agree to strengthen cooperation

And let us not forget that we have been through all this before. Free Trade exasperates the crisis of capitalism it is not a solution to that crisis as Herr Doctor Professor Marx explained 160 years ago.

ON THE QUESTION OF FREE TRADE

Public Speech Delivered by Karl Marx

before the Democratic Association of Brussels January 9, 1848

We have shown what sort of brotherhood free trade begets between the different classes of one and the same nation. The brotherhood which free trade would establish between the nations of the Earth would hardly be more fraternal. To call cosmopolitan exploitation universal brotherhood is an idea that could only be engendered in the brain of the bourgeoisie. All the destructive phenomena which unlimited competition gives rise to within one country are reproduced in more gigantic proportions on the world market. We need not dwell any longer upon free trade sophisms on this subject, which are worth just as much as the arguments of our prize-winners Messrs. Hope, Morse, and Greg. For instance, we are told that free trade would create an international division of labor, and thereby give to each country the production which is most in harmony with its natural advantage. You believe, perhaps, gentlemen, that the production of coffee and sugar is the natural destiny of the West Indies. Two centuries ago, nature, which does not trouble herself about commerce, had planted neither sugar-cane nor coffee trees there. And it may be that in less than half a century you will find there neither coffee nor sugar, for the East Indies, by means of cheaper production, have already successfully combated his alleged natural destiny of the West Indies. And the West Indies, with their natural wealth, are already as heavy a burden for England as the weavers of Dacca, who also were destined from the beginning of time to weave by hand. One other thing must never be forgotten, namely, that, just as everything has become a monopoly, there are also nowadays some branches of industry which dominate all others, and secure to the nations which most largely cultivate them the command of the world market. Thus in international commerce cotton alone has much greater commercial than all the other raw materials used in the manufacture of clothing put together. It is truly ridiculous to see the free-traders stress the few specialties in each branch of industry, throwing them into the balance against the products used in everyday consumption and produced most cheaply in those countries in which manufacture is most highly developed. If the free-traders cannot understand how one nation can grow rich at the expense of another, we need not wonder, since these same gentlemen also refuse to understand how within one country one class can enrich itself at the expense of another.”

SEE:

Colombia Deal Dead

Armes sans frontières

The New Market States

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Back To The Fifties

Deflation in Canada in the late 1950's led the Bank of Canada to create the floating Dollar. Now it's sinking.

Biggest inflation rate fall since 1959 raises deflation concerns
Economists fear deflation because consumers and businesses are more likely to delay purchases hoping that prices will fall further, slowing economic activity and business investments.
But more importantly, CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said deflation often appears as the final nail in the coffin of a dying economy.
"Typically the only way you get deflation is if you've had a massive recession that has high unemployment rates and a lot of economic slack, so the conditions in which you get deflation are certainly not welcome," he explained.
One factor that may offset the potential for deflation is a recent drop in the value of the Canadian dollar. After starting the year near to parity with its American counterpart, the loonie, as the Canadian currency is popularly known, fell below 80 United States cents this week.

SEE:

Here Come the Seventies

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Bank of Canada, dollar, Canada, deflation, loonie, exchange-rates, 1961, Diefenbuck

Recession Hits Alberta

I love it when folks who are in charge of the eonomy claim that they didn't see the recession coming, or they didn't expect it or they are shocked by it.

There is little doubt this week's developments signalled a change in the economic conditions affecting the province -- and in the messages coming from the Stelmach government, said political scientist Peter McCormick of the University of Lethbridge.
"I do think Alberta thought it was flying pretty high -- 'Recessions might hit lesser economies but they can't hurt us because we're oil, and oil never hurts,' " he said Friday."This is completely new territory for the government."

Oh please Peter gimme a break. There was the recession and oil crash of the seventies when the Tired Old Tories first took power. Then there was the oil boom and crash of the late seventies and early eighties which occured while the rest of Canada went into recession, by 1982 the oil market collapsed and Alberta followed the rest of the country into a downward spiral. Then there was the recession and debt/deficit crisis of the ninties. And through out it all the Tired Old Tories were in charge. So this ain't new territory.

Indeed the rose coloured blinders of the oil boom that the Tired Old Tories wear are the same ones they wore in the seventies and eighties. And now the recession has hit Alberta, we still have a budget surplus, just as we did in the ninties. But like the ninties, watch for the Tired Old Tories to start belt tightening and attacking the public sector while giving royalty holidays to their pals in Big Oil.

Indeed, the economic woes have hit on a number of fronts: the stock market slide has hammered Calgary-based petroleum producers; Alberta's housing market is slowing; retail sales are down; a handful of jobs have been cut.
While Ontario's manufacturing sector has been feeling the pain for months, the downturn in commodity markets -- particularly for crude oil -- is squeezing Alberta.
"We have been living in a bit of a dream world for the last little while. Things have not been well in other parts of the country," noted University of Calgary economist Ken McKenzie. "Until recently, we've been relatively removed from that because of high oil prices."
Much of the concern stems from just how quickly economic conditions, including commodity markets, have changed.
Resource revenue is still on pace this year for a record $14.6 billion, but it's about $4.3 billion less than what was predicted only three months ago.
Banks predict the Alberta economy will grow 1.9 per cent this year, gearing down to 0.3 per cent in 2009 -- the slowest since 1986.
"A $2-billion surplus is not a catastrophe compared to other provinces," Bernard said Friday. "There are a lot of positives, I think, for the Alberta economy, but for sure the drop in commodity prices is going to hurt."
McCormick agrees the province is faring better than other parts of the country where deficits are now being calculated. However, the government is trying to manage expectations by talking about tough times ahead.
"It's directed at universities, hospitals, school boards and government employees who are thinking about salary negotiations coming up -- that's who they are talking to," he said. "They are trying to get rid of boom-talk and boom-mentality now."

Alberta veers on royalties
Financial crisis forces energy-rich province to back down on its demands for a "fair share" from the development of its resources; New transitional rate for oil and gas wells will cost government $1.8-billion over the next five years.

It's the second time this year Alberta backtracks on the new policy, launched when energy prices were thought to rise forever. Last April, it backed off royalty increases affecting gas wells deeper than 2,500 metres and oil wells deeper than 2,000 metres.
The changes won't be the last.

SEE:
Black Gold
Steady Eddie Runs Away
Lougheed Spanks Klein
Don Getty's Legacy
You Won't Have Me To Kick Around
Lack of Planning Created Skills Shortage in Alberta
Laundry Workers Fight Privatization


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Here Come the Seventies

The U.S. cannot cut its interest rates much more or it will end up at zero.

US interest rate falls to 1 per cent

Which means that the U.S. is no longer facing infaltion but the very real recessionary spiral of deflation. The very thing that created the crisis of the Seventies.

Deflation now tops policy-makers' hit list
Globe and Mail, Canada - These are some of the disquieting signs that the once-distant spectre of deflation is looming larger on the horizon, now that economies around the world .
..Deflation: A Primer New York Times
Deflation is the new bogey word as crunch sends prices tumbling Times Online
Deflation worries send Dow below 8000 Washington Times

When your house is burning, there is no sense fretting over painting the fence. With the U.S. economy mired in what will likely be a recession of historic proportions—and an outright depression in some industries—it would be foolish to get too worked up over future inflation concerns. Oracle-of-the-moment Nouriel Roubini, in his Forbes.com column, forecast the following for next year:
“The advanced economies will face stag-deflation (stagnation/recession and deflation) rather than stagflation, as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets will lead advanced economies’ inflation rates to become below 1% by 2009.”

Remember those wheelbarrows of cash Germans had to use to buy things after WWI watch for Americans to roll out the barrow.

Deflation is considered a problem in a modern economy because of the potential of a deflationary spiral and its association with the Great Depression, although not all episodes of deflation correspond to periods of poor economic growth historically.

And true to form the Austrians celebrate deflation as one of the great things about the Great Depression.

Now we get to the crux of the matter: the Great Depression. The assumption is that falling prices somehow caused the economy to crumble. In fact, it was the after-effects of the boom combined with massive government intervention that caused the depression. The only silver lining in the entire period of the 1930s was precisely the falling prices that made the dollar count for more. Falling prices (a falling cost of living) are what Murray Rothbard has described as the "great advantage" of recessions. If you can imagine the Great Depression without falling prices, you have conjured up an image that is far worse than the reality.
As Rothbard has said, "rather than a problem to be dreaded and combatted, falling prices through increased production is a wonderful long-run tendency of untrammelled capitalism. The trend of the Industrial Revolution in the West was falling prices, which spread an increased standard of living to every person; falling costs, which maintained general profitability of business; and stable monetary wage rates—which reflected steadily increasing real wages in terms of purchasing power. This is a process to be hailed and welcomed rather than to be stamped out."

Now with deflation rising on the horizon as Bush bails out the financial market this prediction from the CATO Institute holds a warning for the future.

The Bush Legacy: Deflation or Inflation?
by Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.
Added to cato.org on September 24, 2008

Economists of the Austrian school of economics term this type of debt deflation a "secondary deflation". If the forces of a secondary deflation are strong enough, a central bank's liquidity injections are rendered ineffective by what amounts to private sector sterilization. When people expect prices to fall, their demand for cash increases and soaks up central bank liquidity injections. This phenomenon characterized Japan's economy during most of the 1990s.
But what if the Federal reserve--fearing a secondary deflation, as they feared (incorrectly) a mild deflation in late 2002--pushed the Fed funds rate lower (now it's 2%) and turned on the inflation switch by monetizing more debt? Given the growing mountain of government debt, there is virtually an unlimited potential. It's a scenario worth thinking about.

And that future is here and now.

This week's cover story in The Economist makes it more or less official. Deflation, not inflation, is now the greatest concern for the world economy. Over the past year, producer prices have fallen throughout the advanced world; consumer prices have been falling for the last 6 months in France and Germany; in Japan wages have actually fallen 4 percent over the past year. Until the recent crisis prices were falling in Brazil; they continue to fall in China and Hong Kong; they will probably soon be falling in a number of other developing countries.
So far, none of these price declines looks anything like the massive deflation that accompanied the Great Depression. But the appearance of deflation as a widespread problem is disturbing, not only because of its immediate economic implications, but because until recently most economists - myself included - regarded sustained deflation as a fundamentally implausible prospect, something that should not be a concern.

The point is that deflation should - or so we thought - be easy to prevent: just print more money. And printing money is normally a pleasant experience for governments. In fact, the idea that governments have a hard time keeping their hands off the printing press has long been a staple of political economy; dozens of theoretical papers have argued that the temptation to engage in excessive money creation causes an inherent inflationary bias in fiat-money economies. It is largely to combat that presumed bias that most of the world has accepted the notion that monetary policy should be conducted by an independent central bank, insulated from political influence - and has written into the charters of those central banks that they should seek price stability as their main, often only, goal.

And since we are being nostalgic here is the theme song to the CTV series Here Comes the Seventies....



Tag
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Stiglitz On Market Fundamentalism

The market crisis exposes the failure of the neo-con agenda of deregulation, self regulation, privatization and contracting out. The real solution to this crisis as Stiglitz pointed out in 2006 is the socializtion of capital.

Joseph Stiglitz was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001.

Gardels: What, then, is the ultimate impact of the Wall Street meltdown of market-driven globalization?

Stiglitz: The globalization agenda has been closely linked with the market fundamentalists -- the ideology of free markets and financial liberalization. In this crisis, we see the most market-oriented institutions in the most market-oriented economy failing and running to the government for help. Everyone in the world will say now that this is the end of market fundamentalism.
In this sense, the fall of Wall Street is for market fundamentalism what the fall of the Berlin Wall was for communism -- it tells the world that this way of economic organization turns out not to be sustainable. In the end, everyone says, that model doesn't work. This moment is a marker that the claims of financial market liberalization were bogus.

Financial markets are supposed to be a means to an end -- a more prosperous and stable economy as a result of good allocation of resources and better management of risk. But instead, financial markets didn't manage risk, they created it. They didn't enable America's families to manage the risk of volatile interest rates, and now millions are losing their homes. Furthermore, they misallocated hundreds of billions of dollar.
We will never achieve perfect stability of our financial markets, or of our economy. Markets are not self-correcting.

Gardels: What set of policies in the advanced countries can make globalization work?

Stiglitz: The prescription for making globalization work is what is generally called “the Scandinavian model.” That means high levels of investment in education, research and technology plus a strong safety net. That of course also entails, as in the Scandinavian countries, a highly progressive income tax.
Far from making these countries less competitive, it has made them more so. Though it may seem a contradiction to conservative ideologues who think cutting taxes is the answer to everything, the fact is that people are more willing to take entrepreneurial risks if they can count on a safety net and if they have the training to be innovative.
In Sweden, the social democrats who fashioned this policy have just been turned out of office. But we should not read that as a some kind of rupture in the social consensus. The new, more conservative government will only be about fine-tuning the model.

SEE:
Blue Throne Speech
Auto Solution
Not So Good News
Huh?
Super Bubble Burst
October Surprise Was The Market Crash
No Austrians In Foxholes
CRASH

Tags
recession,socialism,capitalism,George W. Bush,asset-backed commercial paper ,, stiglitz, globalization, mortgages, FDR, bubble, US, economy, 1933, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,Bernanke, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession,

Not So Good News

In another parallel from the Great Depression comes this article in the Toronto Star on the International Conference on the Capitalist Crisis that occurerd in 1933 after the election of FDR. The conference was a failure as America wrapped itself in the cloak of isolationism and protectionism.

Experts say the efforts in London in 1933 collapsed in part on the spasms of isms – the tangled web of conceits driving the dying days of British imperialism, post-crash American capitalism, Stalin's iron-fisted communism and, in Germany, the newly installed fascism of Adolf Hitler. That, and a very intense hangover from the Great War. "The good news for today is that what the world faced then was so much worse. In terms of debt defaults, it was about three times the size of the crisis today, and almost all of it stemming from the bills owed from the First World War," said Albrecht Ritschl, a London School of Economics historian.

Good news? Ah excuse me did we miss the trillions of debt incurred in the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? Debt that caused this crisis just as it created the post WWI crisis.
And we still the world political economy divided up amongst various styles of state capitalist regimes, including the US Military Industrial Complex.

Yes the parallels are striking, and all those right wing neo-cons and stock market pundits in the media keep saying they didn't see this coming. Because of course they had their rose coloured ideological blinders on.


SEE:
FDR and the origins of State Capitalism
Huh?
Last One Out Turn Off The Lights
Whiners and Losers
Super Bubble Burst
October Surprise Was The Market Crash
No Austrians In Foxholes
Pension Rip Off
CRASH
The Return Of Hawley—Smoot
Canadian Banks and The Great Depression
U.S. Economy Entering Twilight Zone
Neo-Liberal State Capitalism In Asia
State Capitalism in the USSR
China: The Truimph of State Capitalism
US vs China for Global Hegemony


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socialism,
capitalism,George W. Bush,asset-backed commercial paper ,, goldhomes, mortgages, FDR, bubble, US, economy, 1933, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,Bernanke, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession,

October Surprise Was The Market Crash

On the Sunday News Talk Shows and on the American cable news channels the pundits all commented on how this election there was apparently no October Surprise.

In American political jargon, an October surprise is a news event with the potential to influence the outcome of an election, particularly one for the presidency.

No October Surprise???

What do you call this.......Mutual funds plummet in October as global credit crisis grows

THE US stock-market crash appeared to draw to a close with the month of October, as a gain in the final session helped shares to stellar returns for the week.However, consumer-spending data and a steady stream of layoffs suggest the bear market is not over yet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 144.32 points, or 1.57 per cent, to 9325.01, for its first two-session gain since September. For the month of October, the Dow fell 14 per cent, its biggest percentage drop since August 1998. It could have been worse: Until Tuesday's rally helped it bounce 11 per cent this week for the best weekly return since 1974, the Dow was looking at one of the worst months in its 112-year history. The Nasdaq Composite rose 22.43 points, or 1.32 per cent, to 1720.95, gained 11 per cent on the week and finished the month with a loss of 18 per cent. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 14.66 points, or 1.54 per cent, to 968.75, helping it to a 10 per cent gain for the week. In October, the broad S&P 500 fell 16.9 per cent, its worst month since the date of another infamous crash, October 1987. "It was nuts," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of agency brokerage Themis Trading, of the October action. "There was a time there in the middle of the month people were afraid, thinking: 'What is really happening here? Is this the end of the world? What's going on?'

It cost McCain the election when he insisted that the fundamentals of the economy were good as the market came tumbling down.US Election Panel: 'It was close until the credit crunch

Wall Street collapsed right on top of McCain
Point: Dan SchnurThe most decisive event in this campaign wasn't anything either of the candidates said at their respective conventions or in any of the debates. It wasn't a sound bite from a speech or interview, or a memorable assertion in a television commercial or e-mail attachment. The turning point in this election didn't happen on the campaign trail but rather on Wall Street. In the last week of September, the race was essentially tied. Then Wall Street collapsed -- and it collapsed right on top of John McCain.In the first week or two after the extent of the economic meltdown became apparent earlier this fall, what had been a closely contested election broke significantly in Barack Obama's direction. The worst month for the Dow Jones industrial average in more than a decade made McCain's national security credentials almost irrelevant to voters frightened about their economic futures. Just as the success of the troop increase in Iraq and the rise in gasoline prices earlier this year represented real-world events that boosted McCain's support, the political ramifications of the rapidly spreading economic crisis have been of immense assistance to Obama's efforts to convince voters as to the necessity of a change of course in Washington.

SEE:
McCain A Socialist
No Austrians In Foxholes


tagsGreat Depression, John McCain, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession, asset-backed commercial paper ,, goldhomes, mortgages, housing, bubble, US, economy, oil prices, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,October Surprise, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, John McCain, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession,