Using written records – and tweets – as a roadmap for plant disease spread

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

LATE BLIGHT LESION ON A POTATO LEAF.

view more 

CREDIT: JEAN RISTAINO, NC STATE UNIVERSITY

North Carolina State University researchers used text analytics on both historic and modern writing to reveal more information about the effects and spread of the plant pathogen – now known as Phytophthora infestans – that caused the 1840s Irish potato famine and that continues to vex breeders of potatoes and tomatoes.

The study examined keyword terms like “potato rot” and “potato disease” after digitizing historic farm reports, news accounts and U.S. Patent Office agricultural records from 1843 to 1845 to show how the pathogen first spread across the northeast United States before causing the devastating famine in Ireland in 1845. The study also used text analysis to track social media feeds for the modern-day spread of late blight.

Textual analysis holds promise as a useful tool to help researchers track and visualize both historic and current plant diseases, the researchers say.

“We went back to original descriptions of the potato disease outbreaks in the United States because they occurred between 1843 and 1845, before outbreaks occurred in Europe,” says Jean Ristaino, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor of Plant Pathology at North Carolina State University and corresponding author of a paper in Scientific Reports that describes the study. “We searched those descriptions by keywords, and by doing that we were able to recreate the original outbreak maps using location coordinates mentioned in the documents.

“We were also trying to learn what people were thinking about the disease at the time and where it came from.”

The analysis documents late blight disease on potatoes in five states – New York, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania – before it spread to the rest of the northeastern U.S. and into Canada between 1843 and 1845. The pathogen later wreaked havoc on Europe – especially Ireland.

The paper also examined tweets from 2012 to 2022 to learn more about modern spread of P. infestans. They mined tweets for both common and scientific names of the pathogen and were able to geolocate the sources.

“The social media mining was interesting because we found that most people talking about this disease are scientists in developed countries promoting their own work on Twitter (now X),” Ristaino said. “It was also interesting to note that states where the disease appeared all those many years ago still have the disease now.”

The study also used Google Ngram search terms to reveal a surprising finding. The researchers saw a spike in late blight disease reported in 1950s documents. Drilling down into the relevant academic literature cited in the documents, Ristaino saw evidence of a large late blight outbreak in tomatoes in the United States after World War II. 

“That could have been the emergence of a new North American strain of the pathogen, known as U.S. 1, that became really widespread after that,” Ristaino said.

Ristaino added that she and her team plan to continue this type of work and expand the analytic tools to other plant diseases and pests.

Co-authors Ariel Saffer, Laura Tateosian and Yi-Peng Yang are part of NC State’s Center for Geospatial Analytics. Amanda C. Saville, a research specialist in Ristaino’s lab, also co-authored the paper. Funding was provided by the Triangle Center for Evolutionary Medicine Seed Grant; the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture’s NIFA under grant number 2015-2370; and by the National Science Foundation PIPP Phase 1 grant number 2022-1191.

-kulikowski-

Note to editors: The abstract of the paper follows.

“Reconstructing Historic and Modern Potato Late Blight Outbreaks Using Text Analytics”

Authors: Ariel Saffer, Laura Tateosian, Amanda C. Saville, Yi-Peng Yang and Jean B Ristaino, NC State University

Published: Feb. 15, 2024 in Scientific Reports

DOI: 

Abstract: In 1843, a hitherto unknown plant pathogen entered the U.S. and spread to potato fields in the northeast. By 1845, the pathogen had reached Ireland leading to devastating famine. Questions arose immediately about the source of the outbreaks and how the disease should be managed. The pathogen, now known as Phytophthora infestans, still continues to threaten food security globally. A wealth of untapped knowledge exists in both archival and modern documents, but is not readily available because the details are hidden in descriptive text. We 1) used text analytics of unstructured historical reports (1843-1845) to map U.S. late blight outbreaks; 2) characterized theories on the source of the pathogen and remedies for control; and 3) created modern late blight intensity maps using Twitter feeds. The disease spread from 5 to 17 states and provinces in the U.S. and Canada between 1843-45. Crop losses, Andean sources of the pathogen, possible causes and potential treatments were discussed. Modern disease discussion on Twitter included near-global coverage and local disease observations. Topic modeling revealed general disease information, published research, and outbreak locations. The tools described will help researchers explore and map unstructured text to track and visualize pandemics.

---

JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Reconstructing Historic and Modern Potato Late Blight Outbreaks Using Text Analytics

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Feb-2024

 

Plant disease: Mapping the spread of potato blight prior to the Irish potato famine *IMAGES*

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

The first accurate maps of outbreaks of potato blight — a disease caused by the fungus-like pathogen Phytophthora infestans that was responsible for the Irish potato famine between 1845 and 1852 — in the USA between 1843 and 1845 are presented in a study published in Scientific Reports. The findings improve our understanding of the spread of potato blight before the disease reached Europe.

Jean Ristaino and colleagues mapped outbreaks of potato blight in North America between 1843 and 1845 by analysing historic agricultural reports published in the USA during this period. The authors found that the disease was first reported in 1843 in five locations in the states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut. By the end of 1844 the disease had spread to 107 additional locations, a further six US states (Ohio, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine) and the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. In 1845 the disease spread to 53 new locations, including in four additional US states (Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland) and the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Contemporary reports suggested that the disease led to crop losses of between 33 and 50%. 

The authors also used their approach to characterise historical theories on the source of potato blight and remedies for treating the disease between 1843 and 1845. Proposed causes of the disease during this period included insects, weather conditions, poor quality potato varieties, and a fungus. In addition, the authors identified a widely described debate in reports about whether the fungus was the cause or a consequence of the disease. Suggested treatments for the disease included calcium oxide (known as lime), sulfur, copper sulfate (known as bluestone copper), and salt. Infected imported potato seed tubers from locations including Nova Scotia, France, and Bogota, Colombia were suspected as sources of the disease.

Together, the findings provide insight into the spread of potato blight in the USA and into public understanding of disease in the mid-19th century.

###

Article details

Reconstructing historic and modern potato late blight outbreaks using text analytics

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52870-2

Corresponding Author:

Jean Ristaino
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
Email: jean_ristaino@ncsu.edu

 

Please link to the article in online versions of your report (the URL will go live after the embargo ends): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52870-2.

---

JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-024-52870-2 

ARTICLE TITLE

Reconstructing historic and modern potato late blight outbreaks using text analytics

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Feb-2024

Ancient retroviruses played a key role in the evolution of vertebrate brains

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CELL PRESS

 

IMAGE: 

A MYELINATING OLIGODENDROCYTE (GREEN)

view more 

CREDIT: PEGGY ASSINCK, ALTOS LABS-CAMBRIDGE INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE

Researchers report February 15 in the journal Cell that ancient viruses may be to thank for myelin—and, by extension, our large, complex brains. The team found that a retrovirus-derived genetic element or “retrotransposon” is essential for myelin production in mammals, amphibians, and fish. The gene sequence, which they dubbed “RetroMyelin,” is likely a result of ancient viral infection, and comparisons of RetroMyelin in mammals, amphibians, and fish suggest that retroviral infection and genome-invasion events occurred separately in each of these groups.

“Retroviruses were required for vertebrate evolution to take off,” says senior author and neuroscientist Robin Franklin of Altos Labs-Cambridge Institute of Science. “If we didn’t have retroviruses sticking their sequences into the vertebrate genome, then myelination wouldn’t have happened, and without myelination, the whole diversity of vertebrates as we know it would never have happened.”

Myelin is a complex, fatty tissue that ensheathes vertebrate nerve axons. It enables rapid impulse conduction without needing to increase axonal diameter, which means nerves can be packed closer together. It also provides metabolic support to nerves, which means nerves can be longer. Myelin first appeared in the tree of life around the same time as jaws, and its importance in vertebrate evolution has long been recognized, but until now, it was unclear what molecular mechanisms triggered its appearance.

The researchers noticed RetroMyelin’s role in myelin production when they were examining the gene networks utilized by oligodendrocytes, the cells that produce myelin in the central nervous system. Specifically, the team was investigating the role of noncoding regions including retrotransposons in these gene networks—something that hasn’t previously been explored in the context of myelin biology.

“Retrotransposons compose about 40% of our genomes, but nothing is known about how they might have helped animals acquire specific characteristics during evolution,” says first author Tanay Ghosh, a computational biologist at Altos Labs-Cambridge Institute of Science. “Our motivation was to know how these molecules are helping evolutionary processes, specifically in the context of myelination.”

In rodents, the researchers found that the RNA transcript of RetroMyelin regulates the expression of myelin basic protein, one of the key components of myelin. When they experimentally inhibited RetroMyelin in oligodendrocytes and oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (the stem cells from which oligodendrocytes are derived), the cells could no longer produce myelin basic protein.

To examine whether RetroMyelin is present in other vertebrate species, the team searched for similar sequences within the genomes of jawed vertebrates, jawless vertebrates, and several invertebrate species. They identified analogous sequences in all other classes of jawed vertebrates (birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians) but did not find a similar sequence in jawless vertebrates or invertebrates.

“There’s been an evolutionary drive to make impulse conduction of our axons quicker because having quicker impulse conduction means you can catch things or flee from things more rapidly,” says Franklin.

Next, the researchers wanted to know whether RetroMyelin was incorporated once into the ancestor of all jawed vertebrates or whether there were separate retroviral invasions in the different branches. To answer these questions, they constructed a phylogenetic tree from 22 jawed vertebrate species and compared their RetroMyelin sequences. The analysis revealed that RetroMyelin sequences were more similar within than between species, which suggests that RetroMyelin was acquired multiple times through the process of convergent evolution.

The team also showed that RetroMyelin plays a functional role in myelination in fish and amphibians. When they experimentally disrupted the RetroMyelin gene sequence in the fertilized eggs of zebrafish and frogs, they found that the developing fish and tadpoles produced significantly less myelin than usual.

The study highlights the importance of non-coding regions of the genome for physiology and evolution, the researchers say. “Our findings open up a new avenue of research to explore how retroviruses are more generally involved in directing evolution,” says Ghosh.

###

This research was supported by the Adelson Medical Research Foundation, the UK Multiple Sclerosis Society, the Wellcome Trust, and the Altos Labs-Cambridge Institute of Science.

Cell, Ghosh et al., “A retroviral link to vertebrate myelination through retrotransposon RNA mediated control of myelin gene expression” https://cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00013-8

Cell (@CellCellPress), the flagship journal of Cell Press, is a bimonthly journal that publishes findings of unusual significance in any area of experimental biology, including but not limited to cell biology; molecular biology; neuroscience; immunology; virology and microbiology; cancer; human genetics; systems biology; signaling; and disease mechanisms and therapeutics. Visit http://www.cell.com/cell. To receive Cell Press media alerts, contact press@cell.com.

---

JOURNAL

Cell

DOI

10.1016/j.cell.2024.01.011 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

A retroviral link to vertebrate myelination through retrotransposon RNA-mediated control of myelin gene expression

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Feb-2024

 JAMA

Traumatic brain injury and subsequent risk of brain cancer in US veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars

JAMA NETWORK

About The Study: Moderate or severe and penetrating traumatic brain injury (TBI) were associated with the subsequent development of brain cancer in this study of more than 1.9 million veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. However, mild TBI was not associated with later brain cancer diagnoses. 

Authors: Ian J. Stewart, M.D., of the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences in Bethesda, Maryland, is the corresponding author. 

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ 

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.54588)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

#  #  #

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article 

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.54588?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=021524

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication. 

---

JOURNAL

JAMA Network Open

 

UT Dallas Wind Energy Center to expand with new headquarters, resources

Business Announcement

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS

 

IMAGE: 

FROM LEFT: MECHANICAL ENGINEERING PROFESSORS DR. GIACOMO V. IUNGO, DR. STEFANO LEONARDI, DR. MARIO A. ROTEA AND DR. TODD GRIFFITH LEAD THE WIND ENERGY CENTER AT UT DALLAS. THE CENTER WILL ADD MORE EQUIPMENT FOR RESEARCH AND EDUCATION, AS WELL AS A PHYSICAL HEADQUARTERS, WITH $1.6 MILLION IN FEDERAL FUNDING.

view more 

CREDIT: THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS

The University of Texas at Dallas’ wind energy research programs have expanded rapidly in recent years, with labs, offices and facilities spread out on campus. In 2020 UT Dallas formed the Wind Energy Center, called UTD Wind, to bring its wind energy programs under one virtual umbrella.

Now, a new initiative will give UTD Wind a physical headquarters for the first time with additional labs, meeting areas and office space. The project also includes additional equipment for wind energy research and education.

UT Dallas has received $1.6 million through the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act to support the expansion, which will bring most of the center’s operations under the same roof.

“It is important for UTD Wind to have a home. These funds will help us carry out our mission to advance wind energy science and engineering, train future experts, and establish public-private partnerships to solve industry problems,” said Dr. Mario A. Rotea, professor of mechanical engineering in the Erik Jonsson School of Engineering and Computer Science and Wind Energy Center director. “We’re very thankful for the support we’ve received from U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and campus leaders who have helped make that possible.”

The headquarters will be located in the Waterview Science and Technology Center, which houses the Boundary Layer and Subsonic Wind Tunnel (BLAST). The research facility, which opened in 2018, features a 26,000-pound fan that creates wind conditions like those in the atmosphere for researchers to study and assess the effects of wind on turbines and other structures.

Federal funding will be used to establish the Intelligent Energy Systems Lab, a state-of-the-art testing ground to develop intelligent systems focused on mechatronics, which involves the integration of mechanical systems with electronics and software, and electronics subsystems for wind turbines and wind farms. Funds also will be used to renovate space to house a wind-wave tunnel, which combines a water tank with a wind tunnel, to expand the center’s research, educational and outreach infrastructure in offshore wind.

UTD launched its first major wind research project, the Center for Wind Energy Science, Technology and Research (WindSTAR) with support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2014. WindSTAR, an NSF Industry-University Cooperative Research Center, began with five research projects and nine member companies. Currently, researchers are collaborating on 12 research projects with 18 industry partners.

“The Wind Energy Center is an example of how UTD serves as a key partner with industry and government to advance technology and facilitate innovation,” said Dr. Joseph Pancrazio, vice president for research and innovation and professor of bioengineering.

UT Dallas has seen growing student interest in wind technology, including a new Wind Energy Club, advised by Dr. Todd Griffith, professor of mechanical engineering and deputy director of UTD Wind. A student team was one of 13 nationally to advance to the final round of the Department of Energy’s Collegiate Wind Competition last year and was selected to compete in the final round again this year in May. In 2022, UTD received a $392,000 NSF grant to offer a Research Experiences for Undergraduates program in wind energy systems, led by Dr. Stefano Leonardi, professor of mechanical engineering and educational program director for UTD Wind.

Texas is the country’s leader in wind energy generation, producing about 25% of the state’s energy, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

 

How is deforested land in Africa used?

With satellite data and machine learning methods, it is possible to identify and locate 15 forms of land use – from the cultivation of various crops to pastureland and mining

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

 

IMAGE: 

SECTION OF THE WORLD MAP FOCUSSING ON AFRICA. MANY COLOURED DOTS MARK THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF DIFFERENT FORMS OF LAND USE AFTER DEFORESTATION.

view more 

CREDIT: SCREENSHOT OF THE APP HTTPS://ROBERTNAG82.USERS.EARTHENGINE.APP/VIEW/AFRICALU

Africa's forested areas – an estimated 14 % of the global forest area – are continuing to decline at an increasing rate – mostly because of human activities to convert forest land for economic purposes. As natural forests are important CO2 and biodiversity reservoirs, this development has a significant impact on climate change and effects the integrity of nature. To intervene in a targeted manner in the interests of climate protection and biodiversity, there has been a lack of sufficiently good data and detailed knowledge of the various forms of subsequent utilisation of deforested areas to track where forest-related conversions are happening and why. This has now been provided by a new study published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports and led by Robert N. Masolele and Johannes Reiche from Wageningen University in the Netherlands, Martin Herold from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, and their team. They used high-resolution satellite data, which they analysed on the basis of local reference data for 15 different types of land use – from crops such as coffee, cashew and rubber to pastureland and mining – with the help of deep learning methods. This enabled them to create the first high-resolution (accurate to five metres) and continental mapping of land use after deforestation across a wide area of the African continent, including wet and dry forests. This provides an improved basis for enhancing transparency on where commodity expansion leads to deforestation and for underpinning the strategic planning and implementation of deforestation mitigation measures by governments and forest protection agencies – both in Africa and in the EU, where a new EU-regulation aims to establish “deforestation-free supply chains” for products made from certain raw materials.

Background: Africa's threatened forests and the EU Deforestation Regulation

Over the last two decades, Africa has experienced a rapid decline in forest areas and tree cover. How land use develops after deforestation has a significant impact on forest biomass, biodiversity and the water cycle. These changes can vary depending on the location, intensity and spatial extent of forest loss. Understanding the spatio-temporal extent and motives of deforestation in Africa is critical to understanding and mitigating its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and the negative impacts on the forest ecosystem.

The EU also wants to make an important contribution to curbing forest loss. The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is a new initiative which aims to ensure that products placed on the EU market are deforestation-free and therefore protect the world's forests for future generations. It also promotes transparency and traceability in supply chains, making it easier for consumers to make informed choices about the products they purchase.

Insufficient database to date

Although there are some national and regional statistics documenting trends in forest loss, there is a lack of consistent, detailed and spatially explicit estimates and mapping of the factors responsible for forest loss. Available information is often only based on samples at individual points in time, is not available in sufficient spatial-temporal resolution and thematic classification and has so far only included dry forests. Interpretations are often based on visual inspection of satellite images and on the historical expectation that different forms of subsistence agriculture persist and that certain land uses are restricted to specific geographical locations. This overlooks the diversity of actual causes of forest loss.

Comprehensive approach to mapping with high-resolution satellite data and Deep Learning Methods

In a comprehensive study, researchers led by Robert N. Masolele, post-doctoral researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and Martin Herold, Head of Section 1.4 “Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics” at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and Professor at the University of Potsdam, have now deciphered the complex patterns of land use that emerge after deforestation in Africa's diverse landscapes. They present the first comprehensive map of land use after deforestation in Africa, covering forest loss from 2001 to 2020. The map is available with a spatial resolution of five metres and 15 land use classes: from crops such as cocoa, cashew, oil palm, rubber, coffee and tea to mining, roads, settlements, grazing land, small and large-scale agriculture as well as plantation forest and other land with tree cover.

On the one hand, the researchers relied on the high-resolution Planet NICFI satellite data provided by Norway's International Climate & Forests Initiative (NICFI). Accordingly, the study was conducted on the African continent between 30 degrees north latitude and 30 degrees south latitude and includes countries in western, central, eastern and southern Africa. The region is characterised by both humid and dry forests. 

Secondly, they used reference data from various publications, some of which were obtained via crowd-sourcing with the help of citizen science or from other remote sensing campaigns and open data sources.

“What makes this study special is the innovative use of satellite imagery, machine learning algorithms and active learning. This allowed us to accurately identify post-deforestation land use, map it at an unprecedented scale and level of detail, and assess the trend and hotspots of land use conversion in different countries and regions of Africa,” explains Robert N. Masolele, lead author of the study.

The most important results

The study reveals a complex web of land uses that emerge after deforestation events. It shows that the causes of forest loss vary from region to region. In general, small-scale cropland is the main driver of forest loss in Africa, with hotspots in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, commodity crops such as cocoa, oil palm and rubber are dominant drivers of forest loss in the humid forests of western and central Africa, forming an “arc of commodity expansion” in that region. At the same time, the hotspots for cashew are found to increasingly dominate in the dry forests of both western and south-eastern Africa, while larger hotspots for large-scale croplands were found in Nigeria and Zambia. The increased expansion of cacao, cashew, oil palm, rubber, and large-scale croplands observed in humid and dry forests of western and south-eastern Africa suggests they are vulnerable to future land-use changes by commodity crops.

Classification and outlook

Although the mapping is very extensive, the study recognises that it is difficult to classify certain forms of land use with a high degree of accuracy. Factors such as cloud cover and seasonal variations present limitations that emphasise the need for continuous refinement and validation.

“The study makes a crucial contribution to our understanding of the complex interplay between human economic activities and the environment. Its particular importance lies in the fact that it provides policy makers, conservationists and scientists with a detailed understanding of the different developments that land undergoes in large parts of Africa after deforestation. This knowledge is crucial for developing targeted conservation strategies, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and mitigating the environmental impacts of deforestation across the African continent,” emphasises Martin Herold. “We in Europe will also benefit from this, as the new EU deforestation regulation requires proof of deforestation-free supply chains for certain raw materials such as coffee, cocoa and rubber.”

Overall, this new study showcases the great potential of using high-resolution satellite data, combined with artificial intelligence and regional knowledge to provide open-source information for different stakeholders and enhance the transparency for tracking critical forest-related land use transitions in tropical forests.

---

JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-024-52138-9 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

ARTICLE TITLE

Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa

 

New ‘time travel’ study reveals future impact of climate change on coastal marshes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TULANE UNIVERSITY

A new Tulane University study published in Nature Communications offers a glimpse into the possible impact of climate change on coastal wetlands 50 years or longer into the future.

Scientists are usually forced to rely on computer models to project the long-term effects of rising seas. But an unexpected set of circumstances enabled a real-world experiment along the Gulf Coast.

An extensive network of nearly 400 monitoring sites was established along the Louisiana coast after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Then the rate of sea-level rise in the region surged to more than 10 millimeters (half an inch) per year – at least three times the global average. That exposed the region to the kind of ocean rise not expected until around 2070. The accelerated rise created a unique opportunity to determine whether the marshes can survive that pace of coastal flooding.

“It is the dream of every field researcher who does experiments – we can basically travel 50 years into the future to get a peek at what’s in store,” said Torbjörn Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Tulane Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

The researchers used new techniques developed by European scientists to measure sea-level rise right off the coast with satellite data, something that was previously not available. The team then compared the rate of water-level rise at each monitoring site with the rate of wetland elevation change determined by other instruments and found that almost 90% of the sites were in deficit.

“To our knowledge, this is the first time that a climate impact experiment has been carried out over a region this large, based on hundreds of monitoring stations that have collected data for about 15 years,” said Guandong Li, a PhD candidate in Earth and Environmental Sciences at Tulane who led the study. “This has also allowed us to study the climate impact on a heavily human-influenced landscape, rather than a more resilient pristine ecosystem.”

Li was investigating the role of land subsidence in coastal Louisiana when a team led by Sönke Dangendorf, the David and Jane Flowerree Professor in Tulane’s Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, demonstrated the unprecedented rates of sea-level rise along the Gulf and Southeast U.S. coasts since 2010.

“Guandong immediately dropped everything he was working on to take advantage of this unique opportunity,” Törnqvist said. “He set out to answer the key question of whether coastal marshes can keep up with this rate of sea-level rise, as some earlier modeling studies had suggested they can.”

If the current climate scenario persists, the rate of sea-level rise by 2070 is expected to be about 7 millimeters (one quarter inch) per year. The study projects that approximately 75% of wetland sites will be in deficit by that time, potentially resulting in a rate of wetland loss much higher than what has already occurred in the past century.

However, the researchers emphasize that there is hope for a more favorable outcome if immediate action is taken. By meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement and reducing carbon emissions, it is possible to shift to a more sustainable climate trajectory that would reduce the rate of wetland loss.

The study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Treasury through Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority’s Center of Excellence Research Grants Program (RESTORE Act).

---

JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Feb-2024

 

UC Irvine researcher co-authors ‘scientists’ warning’ on climate and technology

Academics explore roles of clean energy and AI in combating global warming

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - IRVINE

Irvine, Calif., Feb. 15, 2024 – Throughout human history, technologies have been used to make peoples’ lives richer and more comfortable, but they have also contributed to a global crisis threatening Earth’s climate, ecosystems and even our own survival. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, the University of Kansas and Oregon State University have suggested that industrial civilization’s best way forward may entail embracing further technological advancements but doing so with greater awareness of their potential drawbacks.

 

In a paper titled “Scientists’ Warning on Technology,” published recently in the Journal of Cleaner Production, the researchers, including Bill Tomlinson, UCI professor of informatics, stress that innovations, particularly in the fields of clean energy and artificial intelligence, will come with risks but may be the most effective way to ensure a sustainable future.

 

“Since prehistoric times, technologies have been created to solve problems and benefit people; think of the improvements that have been made in agriculture, manufacturing and transportation,” Tomlinson said. “But these developments have had a dual nature. While addressing the human need for food, farming has led to environmental degradation, and our factories and vehicles have caused a massive buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which is causing climate change.”

 

Co-author Andrew W. Torrance, the Paul E. Wilson Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Kansas, said: “Technology is often offered as a panacea for environmental crises. It is not. Nevertheless, it will play a crucial role in any solution. That is why the role of technology must be taken seriously, rigorously measured, modeled and understood – and then interpreted in light of population and affluence.”

 

He added, “I am extremely optimistic about the beneficial role technology could play in helping humanity find its sustainable niche in the biosphere, but [I’m also] stone-cold sober that other, less hopeful outcomes remain possible.”

 

The scientists’ warning concept dates to the early 1990s, when the Union of Concerned Scientists published a letter exhorting people to change their habits regarding stewardship of Earth and its resources “if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.” A second warning, in 2017, was signed by more than 15,000 scholars in different scientific fields. Since then, dozens of additional admonitions have been published, with over 50 currently in preparation.

 

“The scientists’ warnings weave a compelling narrative of humanity at a crossroads, urging us to acknowledge the fragility of our biosphere and embrace a collective responsibility for safeguarding our future through proper, science-based actions,” said co-author William Ripple, Oregon State University Distinguished Professor of ecology, who led the project to write the article.

 

The Journal of Cleaner Production warning outlines two main methods for reducing, mitigating or eliminating fossil fuel use. The first is infrastructural substitution, replacing coal- and natural gas-fired power plants with renewable resources such as wind and solar, and abandoning internal combustion engines in favor of electric motors. This shift would also involve widespread adoption of electric appliances in homes and swapping out gas furnaces and water heaters for heat pumps.

 

A second method to steer humanity away from fossil fuel burning centers on a concept known as “undesign,” the intentional negation of technology and consideration of alternatives that do not rely on labor-saving human inventions.

 

“People are often resistant to change, though, especially in contexts where they have come to depend strongly on particular goods and services,” Tomlinson said. “Embracing undesign will require people to be guided to new cultural narratives that are not so reliant on heavily impactful systems.”

 

In addition to clean energy technologies, the warning’s authors look to artificial intelligence as a way to point human civilization toward a more sustainable tomorrow. They mention how AI is being used currently to connect wildlife habitats, monitor methane emissions and optimize supply chains. Tomlinson and his colleagues said AI presents far less energy-intensive alternatives to laborious tasks like writing and illustration and is becoming adept at writing computer code, which could come in handy in managing the “complexities of 8 billion-plus people cohabiting on Earth,” according to the paper.

 

But Tomlinson noted that AI is not without risks, such as the possibility of runaway energy consumption, perpetuating biases in human societies and AI systems becoming independent and powerful enough that they pose a real danger to humanity.

 

“It’s important that humans deploy new technologies to replace those that are environmentally harmful,” he said. “But we need to remain vigilant for potential future harm and attempt to mitigate that as much as possible.

 

“In our scientists’ warning, we identify an array of potential future risks from both electrification and AI. We believe that these outcomes are substantially less problematic than these technologies’ potential benefits from addressing the pressing environmental crises that humanity is currently facing.”

 

This project received funding from the National Science Foundation.

About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UCI is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and is ranked among the nation’s top 10 public universities by U.S. News & World Report. The campus has produced five Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, premier research, innovation and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UCI has more than 36,000 students and offers 224 degree programs. It’s located in one of the world’s safest and most economically vibrant communities and is Orange County’s second-largest employer, contributing $7 billion annually to the local economy and $8 billion statewide. For more on UCI, visit www.uci.edu.

Media access: Radio programs/stations may, for a fee, use an on-campus ISDN line to interview UCI faculty and experts, subject to availability and university approval. For more UCI news, visit news.uci.edu. Additional resources for journalists may be found at https://news.uci.edu/media-resources.

---

JOURNAL

Journal of Cleaner Production

ARTICLE TITLE

Scientists’ warning on technology