Tiny plastic particles may boost risk from major diseases – study

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

 

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HUMAN EXPOSURE RATES ARE DETERMINED BY THE ENVIRONMENTAL FATE AND TRANSPORT OF MNPS THAT CONTROL THE CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION SOURCES AND HUMAN EXPOSURES (BOTTOM). TOGETHER, THESE DYNAMIC EXPOSURE CONTROLS DETERMINE THE COMBINED UPTAKE OF MNPS AND THEIR ADDITIVES THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE RISK AND/OR SEVERITY OF NCDS. THE TEXT BOXES PROVIDE SOME EXAMPLE EXPOSURE RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT MNP SOURCES.

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

People may be at increased risk from cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease – as rising global levels of micro- and nanoplastics (MnPs) are absorbed into the human body, a new study reveals.

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) such as these are linked to inflammatory conditions in the body’s organs, with the tiny particles increasing the uptake of MnPs and their leachates within digestive and respiratory systems – potentially boosting the risk and severity of NCDs in the future.

And MnP concentrations in infant faecal matter are significantly higher than in adults – possibly because plastic is commonly used in infant food preparation, presentation, and storage. Young children’s behaviour such as putting objects in their mouth may also account for this.

Publishing their findings in Cell Reports Medicine, an international group of researchers is now calling for a global integrated One Health approach to human health and environmental research that will reveal the environmental mechanisms that lie behind the rise in human MnP exposure and the particles links with NCDs.

Lead author Professor Stefan Krause, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “Plastic pollution has increased globally – making it critical that we understand the overall health risks associated with MnP exposure.

“We must tackle this pollution at its source to reduce further emissions, as the global dispersal of MnPs that has already happened will remain a cause of concern for centuries to come. For this, we need a systematic investigation into the environmental drivers of human MnP exposure and their impacts on the prevalence and severity of the main NCD groups of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.”

The researchers highlight that the relationship between MnPs and NCDs resembles those of other particles, including natural sources such as pollen or human-made pollutants like diesel exhaust, and MnPs, and engineered nanomaterials, all acting in a similar biological manner. The body treats these as foreign entities triggering the same protective mechanisms – presenting a risk of bodily defences becoming overwhelmed and boosting the frequency and severity of NCDs.

The incidence of NCDs is increasing across the world with the four main types collectively responsible for 71% of all global deaths annually and creating a predicted economic impact of more than $30 trillion over the next two decades.

Co-author Semira Manaseki-Holland, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “We must better understand how MnPs and NCDs interact, if we are to progress global prevention and treatment efforts toward the UN Sustainable Development Goal on reducing premature mortality from NCDs and other conditions where inflammation are concerned through by 2030.

“This need is critical in low- and low-middle-income countries (LMICs) where NCD prevalence is rising, and plastic pollution levels and exposures are high. Whether we encounter them indoors or outdoors, MnPs are likely adding to global health risks.”

Global pollution trends show that micro- (smaller than 5 mm) and nanoplastic (smaller than 1 µm) particles are now found everywhere. MnPs have been detected in lungs, blood, breast milk, placenta, and stool samples confirming that the particles enter the human body from the environment.

Humans are exposed to MnPs in outdoor and indoor environments through food stuffs, drinks consumption, air and many other sources including cosmetics and human care products.

MnPs have been found in fish, salt, beer, and plastic bottled drinks or air, where they are released from synthetic clothing materials, plastic fabric bedding during sleep, plastic carpet or furniture. Other sources can include fertiliser, soil, irrigation, and uptake into food crops or produce.

Human exposure to MnPs varies significantly depending on location and exposure mechanism, with evidence of MnP pollution hotspots in indoor air containing up to 50 times the number of particles encountered outdoors.

Co-author Professor Iseult Lynch, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “We must understand the human health risks associated with MnPs and to do this, we will need to understand the environmental controls of individual exposures. This will require environmental and medical scientists to work very closely together.”

ENDS

Hypothesized uptake mechanisms of MnPs through human body 

(A) Hypothesized uptake mechanisms of MnPs through human biological barriers, including via (B) the olfactory bulb, (C) the lung-air barrier, and (D) the gastrointestinal tract, indicating also the systems and organs directly affected by MnPs and the associated MnP impacts and suspected adverse health out comes including NCDs. The suspected particle-size fractionation caused by differences in the uptake mechanisms (A–D) is highlighted in (E), with larger particles being ingested (up to 130 mm) rather than inhaled (less than 2.5 mm) and only the smallest (nanoscale) particles being able to penetrate the blood-brain barrier. MnP internalized by routes (C) and (D) reach the wider circulatory system and from there can reach all organs.

CREDIT

University of Birmingham

Infographic details

• Figure 1. Environmental exposure routes, transport, and sources of MnPs Environmental exposure routes and sources of MnPs in indoor (top) and outdoor environments (middle). Human exposure rates are determined by the environmental fate and transport of MnPs that control the connectivity between spatially and temporally dynamic environmental pollution sources and human exposures (bottom). Together, these dynamic exposure controls determine the combined uptake of MnPs and their additives that may influence the risk and/or severity of NCDs. The text boxes provide some example exposure ranges associated with different MnP sources.
• Figure 2. Hypothesized uptake mechanisms of MnPs through human body (A–D) (A) Hypothesized uptake mechanisms of MnPs through human biological barriers, including via (B) the olfactory bulb, (C) the lung-air barrier, and (D) the gastrointestinal tract, indicating also the systems and organs directly affected by MnPs and the associated MnP impacts and suspected adverse health out comes including NCDs. The suspected particle-size fractionation caused by differences in the uptake mechanisms (A–D) is highlighted in (E), with larger particles being ingested (up to 130 mm) rather than inhaled (less than 2.5 mm) and only the smallest (nanoscale) particles being able to penetrate the blood-brain barrier. MnP internalized by routes (C) and (D) reach the wider circulatory system and from there can reach all organs.

Notes to Editors

• The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions, its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers and teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries. Discover Birmingham.
• ‘The potential of micro- and nanoplastics to exacerbate the health impacts and global burden of non-communicable diseases’ - Stefan Krause, Valerie Ouellet, Deonie Allen, Steven Allen, Kerry Moss, Holly A. Nel, Semira Manaseki-Holland, and Iseult Lynch is published by Cell Reports Medicine.
• Participating institutions:

• University of Birmingham, UK
• Universite´ Claude Bernard, Lyon, France
• University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
• Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Orono, USA
• Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
• Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK
• Center for Environment, Fisheries & Agriculture Science, Lowestoft, UK

 

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JOURNAL

Cell Reports Medicine

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The potential of micro- and nanoplastics to exacerbate the health impacts and global burden of non-communicable diseases

Research to enable cheaper and safer battery storage

LANCASTER UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

KEY RESULTS WERE OBTAINED BY ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR YUE CHEN 

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CREDIT: LANCASTER UNIVERSITY

Researchers have developed a new technique to solve the problem of how to increase the capacity of sodium-ion batteries.

The research in Applied Physics Reviews was jointly led by Professor Oleg Kolosov from Lancaster University and Professor Zhigao Huang from Fujian Normal University, with key results obtained by Associate Professor Yue Chen from both Lancaster and Fuzhou.

Professor Kolosov said: “Nanoscale studies of rechargeable storage are essential for the development of new, efficient and safe batteries.

“This study will enable a cheaper and safer energy storage alternative to lithium-ion batteries, with lithium being much scarcer and more difficult to mine compared with sodium batteries. This fundamental research is expected to ultimately enhance the cycle stability, lifespan, and capacity of batteries.”

The researchers developed a unique technique of electrochemical ultrasonic force microscopy (EC-UFM) for the nanoscale imaging of interfaces in rechargeable batteries directly during their operation, or operando, something that was not possible using existing electrochemical characterization methods. EC-UFM allowed the researchers to observe the formation and properties of one of crucial elements in these batteries - solid-state-interphase (SEI) - that affects their capacity, power and longevity.

The new technique developed as part of NEXGENNA Faraday Instiution project solves a long-standing problem of how to increase the capacity of sodium-ion batteries, using solvent as a vehicle for the co-intercalation of sodium into the carbon electrode. By guiding the passivating SEI layer formation during the battery charge/discharge process, the scientists discovered how to preserve the shuttling of charge carriers between the electrolyte and electrode resulting in efficient and powerful sodium-ion batteries.

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JOURNAL

Applied Physics Reviews

DOI

10.1063/5.0196568 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Operando nano-mapping of sodium-diglyme co-intercalation and SEI formation in sodium ion batteries' graphene anodes

 

New insights into the formation of tiny cloud particles in the Arctic

Scientists from Braunschweig and Leipzig jointly investigated new particle formation over Spitsbergen

LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE FOR TROPOSPHERIC RESEARCH (TROPOS)

 

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AFTER LANDING, THE BELUGA TETHERED BALLOON IS CAREFULLY BROUGHT BACK TO NY-ÅLESUND SO THAT IT CAN BE DEPLOYED AGAIN THE NEXT DAY.

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CREDIT: ESTHER HORVATH, ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE (AWI)

Ny-Ålesund (Spitsbergen). Mobile measuring devices enable the research of atmospheric processes in higher air layers that have not yet been recorded by conventional measuring stations on the ground. The airborne flight systems therefore make an important contribution to research into the causes of climate change in the Arctic. A team of German researchers has combined two of these methods over Spitsbergen in recent weeks: Simultaneous measurements of meteorological parameters and minute aerosol particles were carried out using a tethered balloon system and an unmanned aircraft. Several cases have already been observed in which these new formation processes took place at higher altitudes, sometimes even between cloud layers, and were therefore invisible to ground stations. These particles can, for example, influence the formation of clouds and thus have an impact on climate change. However, the reason why the Arctic is warming much faster than other regions of the world is still unclear.

 

In recent years, the Arctic has increasingly become the focus of climate research, as the climate changes observed to date have had a much greater impact there than in other regions. The reasons for this include complex interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean, which are difficult to quantify and model. In order to improve our understanding of these processes and interactions, more on-site measurements are needed. Only a few continuously measuring stations and mobile measurements with ships and aircraft are available so far as a database and provide the necessary parameters for analyses and modelling.

Scientists from the Technische Universität Braunschweig (TU Braunschweig) and the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research Leipzig (TROPOS) carried out measurements with an unmanned aerial system and a tethered balloon in Ny-Ålesund on Spitsbergen  from mid-May to mid-June 2024. They are supported by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), which also co-operates the French-German research base AWIPEV in Ny-Ålesund. This project, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and entitled "Aerosol variability and interaction with environmental conditions based on the small-scale vertical and horizontal distribution of measurements in the Arctic" (AIDA), is primarily investigating the relationship between small-scale air movements and the formation of tiny airborne aerosol particles that can form from gases. As these small particles can continue to grow and then scatter light and contribute to the formation of clouds, they play a major role in the climate.

The ALADINA drone and the BELUGA balloon system were used in the project. ALADINA (Application of Light-weight Aircraft for Detecting IN-situ Aerosol) is an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) of the type "Carolo P360", which was developed at the Institute for Flight Guidance at TU Braunschweig. It has a wingspan of 3.6 metres, weighs 25 kilograms and can carry a payload of up to 4.5 kilograms. The battery allows a flight time of up to 40 minutes and a speed of up to over 100 kilometres per hour. The unmanned research aircraft has already been used several times, including at the TROPOS measuring station Melpitz near Torgau (Saxony), at BER Airport, in Benin in West Africa and in Spitsbergen in 2018. The special feature of this aircraft lies primarily in its equipment with particle measuring devices, which were miniaturised at TROPOS.

The balloon system BELUGA (Balloon-born moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) consists of a 90 cubic metre tethered balloon that can carry a payload of up to 20 kilograms, as well as a number of measuring platforms that were specially developed for this purpose and can be used in a modular fashion. BELUGA has already been used during several measurement campaigns in the Arctic: first in 2017 during the PASCAL Polarstern cruise, in which meteorological and turbulence parameters were initially observed. As part of the MOSAiC drift experiment, the balloon was used for the first time in combination with the newly developed aerosol measurement platform CAMP (Cubic Aerosol Measurement Platform), as well as other payloads, including for measuring solar radiation and collecting particles on a filter for later analysis. These various platforms were then used in a measurement campaign in Ny-Ålesund, in which balloon ascents were carried out during different seasons.

 

Two flight systems combined for measurement campaign for the first time

The 2024 measurement campaign follows on from a series of Arctic studies that have already been carried out with both systems individually. In the measurement campaign for the AIDA project, the systems were combined for the first time in order to determine the three-dimensional distribution of the smallest aerosol particles over the orographically inhomogeneous Kongsfjord. While BELUGA carried out purely vertical profiles, ALADINA was able to analyse the horizontal variability at the same time. BELUGA has the advantage that it can also be operated in clouds, but it is limited to wind speeds of a maximum of 5 metres per second on the ground. ALADINA flies under visual flight conditions, but at wind speeds of up to 15 metres per second. In total, measurements were taken with both systems in parallel on 4 days. In addition, each system took measurements on up to 5 further days. As the two systems have different limitations in terms of measurement conditions, the combination allowed a greater number of measurement days to be covered than with either system alone. ALADINA was deployed on 9 measurement days during the campaign on Spitsbergen. This resulted in 136 profiles during 40 flights and 35 flight hours. The BELUGA tethered balloon was used for 8 flight days and 90 profiles.

Various scenarios for new particle formation

The measurement campaign has so far shown that there are various scenarios that lead to the formation of new particles in the atmosphere:

A very interesting case was the observed formation of new particles between two cloud layers, which could be observed there with the BELUGA tethered balloon and in parallel from the observatory on the Zeppelin mountain. This layer of tiny aerosol particles slowly descended after the clouds had dispersed and could be detected on the ground at the end of the day.

ALADINA was also able to record a day on which extremely high concentrations of the small particles occurred in all layers, even beyond the Zeppelin mountain up to 900 metres. This phenomenon was observed at very high wind speeds and with high variability of the particles in the horizontal dispersion over the Kongsfjord.

 

Both teams were thus able to observe a variety of phenomena that were new compared to previous campaigns. The very rapid progression of snowmelt and the subsequent start of plant growth in particular appear to be driving the phenomenon of new particle formation very strongly.

In order to understand the various processes that can lead to the formation of new particles, a detailed analysis of the measurement data is necessary, which will keep the scientists busy over the next few months.

The tethered balloon system BELUGA with 2 measuring platforms for meteorology and particles in Ny-Ålesund.

CREDIT
Mona Kellermann, TROPOS


The BELUGA tethered balloon system with the particle measuring devices.

CREDIT
Christian Pilz, TROPOS

The unmanned research aircraft ALADINA at takeoff.

CREDIT
Barbara Harm-Altstädter, TU Braunschweig

The unmanned research aircraft ALADINA before the next measurement flight. The research village of Ny-Ålesund can be seen in the background.

CREDIT
Lutz Bretschneider, TU Braunschweig

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JOURNAL

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene

DOI

10.1525/elementa.2023.00120 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Tethered balloon measurements reveal enhanced aerosol occurrence aloft interacting with Arctic low-level clouds

 

Blast from the past

Hope from an unexpected source in the global race to stop wheat blast

JOHN INNES CENTRE

 

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HERITAGE WHEAT COLLECTIONS HAVE BEEN USED TO DISCOVER GENES THAT OFFER RESISTANCE TO THE EMERGING DISEASE, WHEAT BLAST

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CREDIT: JOHN INNES CENTRE

An important breakthrough in efforts to halt the advance of wheat blast, an emerging threat to international food security, has come from a surprising source.

New research unexpectedly reveals that wheat varieties with resistance to another pathogen, powdery mildew, also confer protection against wheat blast.

When seeking resistance to diseases it is common to search among varieties or old landraces from regions where the disease originated. As wheat blast is a disease of humid sub-tropical regions, efforts to control the disease have focused on finding resistance genes among wheat varieties adapted to warmer climates.

A research collaboration led by the John Innes Centre, and including the University of Zürich, challenges this approach, suggesting that researchers should not ignore resistance in wheat varieties that have been bred to withstand other diseases including those of colder climes, like powdery mildew.

Using gene discovery methods developed at the John Innes Centre, they have identified the first gene that protects wheat plants against the strains of the blast fungus that contain the protein effector AVR-Rmg8.

Surprisingly, the gene, located on chromosome 2A of the wheat genome, is Pm4, a gene that gives wheat resistance to powdery mildew, a disease of the cooler, wetter climates of the northern hemisphere.

European plant breeders have been selecting wheat with Pm4 for many years for resistance to powdery mildew; now those in the southern hemisphere will be urged to do the same as protection against wheat blast.

“These findings were completely unexpected, and they suggest that if you want to find resistance to wheat blast you should also look in varieties that come from non-tropical regions, where they already have resistance to mildew,” said Professor Paul Nicholson a group leader at the John Innes Centre and coordinator of the study, which also includes contributions from Mexico-based CIMMYT and Saudi Arabia-based KAUST.

“We need to be open to the idea of looking in unusual places because blast is a disease of high temperature, high humidity environments while mildew is a disease of low temperature high humidity environments so no one would have thought of looking in European varieties previously because one is looking for commonalities.”

The research team made the discovery by screening over 300 varieties of wheat in the Watkins Collection, a diversity panel gathered from around the globe in the 1930s. Out of this population, just three percent showed resistance to wheat blast pathogen strains that produce AVR-Rmg8.

Worryingly, all the varieties that were highly resistant to blast carried the Pm4 gene, indicating that only a single resistance was present among this highly diverse population. This emphasises the need to identify additional resistances to ensure robust, durable resistance against this new threat.

The team will now use the same gene discovery methods to search among European-bred wheat varieties for further resistance genes to blast, increasing the genetic armory which can be deployed against this destructive disease.

Dr Tom O’Hara, lead author of the study, said: “This is the first cloned blast resistance gene – unlike previous resistances to blast we have gotten down to the exact gene – even identifying minute variations of the gene that render it nonfunctional. This means our findings can be of great immediate benefit for breeders.

“Our aim from the start was to find resistance that was deployable in Bangladesh and potentially other countries where blast has spread to. The added satisfaction is that our study has taken an unexpected twist.”

The wheat powdery mildew resistance gene Pm4 also confers resistance to wheat blast appears in Nature Plants.

 

 

The emerging threat of wheat blast

 

Almost all cereal diseases have existed for thousands of years and the pathogens causing them have co-evolved with their hosts. Wheat blast, by contrast, is an extremely new disease, first emerging in 1985 in Brazil, and so there has been no time for the host to adapt to this new threat.

Following its appearance, wheat blast spread throughout South America in humid tropical climates.

In 2016 wheat blast was reported in Bangladesh and in 2018 was identified in Zambia. In both instances it appears that the disease has been imported on grain from South America.

Fortunately, the strain(s) causing outbreaks of wheat blast outside Brazil all produce a small protein effector called AVR-Rmg8. This molecule is part of the machinery used by the fungus to suppress wheat defences. The presence of this protein, however, is a potential ‘Achille’s heel’ if the wheat variety can detect this protein and initiate its defence responses.

 

 

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JOURNAL

Nature Plants

DOI

10.1038/s41477-024-01718-8 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

ARTICLE TITLE

The wheat powdery mildew resistance gene Pm4 also confers resistance to wheat blast

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Jun-2024

 

Cloud shift from day to night amplifies global warming

How changing cloud patterns are exacerbating climate change

UNIVERSITÄT LEIPZIG

 

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PROFESSOR JOHANNES QUAAS

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CREDIT: PHOTO: ANTJE GILDEMEISTER

Clouds: More than just a meteorological phenomenon

During the day, clouds reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth’s surface. At night, on the other hand, they act like a blanket, trapping in the heat. This keeps the surface of the Earth warm. “This is why clouds play a decisive role in the Earth’s climate,” says meteorologist Quaas.

In their study, the scientists used satellite observations and data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which provides comprehensive climate models and scenarios. These models cover historical data from 1970 to 2014 and projections up to the year 2100.

“As cloud cover decreases more during the day than at night on a global scale, this leads to a decrease in the short-wave albedo effect during the day and an increase in the long-wave greenhouse effect at night,” explains Hao Luo, lead author of the study.

Climate models and their importance

Climate models are essential for understanding and predicting the complex processes and interactions within the climate system. They help scientists develop possible future scenarios and analyse the impact of various factors such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and clouds on the climate.

Johannes Quaas from Leipzig University emphasises: “The asymmetry of how cloud cover changes is an important newly discovered factor. Our study shows that this asymmetry causes a positive feedback loop that amplifies global warming.” According to the researcher, clouds are changing as a result of climate change. Overall, there are slightly fewer clouds, which means more global warming.

 

The mechanisms behind the asymmetry

This daily asymmetry in cloud cover can be attributed to various factors. One major cause is the increasing stability in the lower troposphere as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This stability means that clouds are less likely to form during the day, while they remain stable or even increase at night.

Yong Han, co-author of the study, explains: “The change in cloud cover is not evenly distributed throughout the day. By day, when solar irradiance is strongest, we observed a greater reduction in clouds. At night, when the Earth’s surface normally cools down, cloud cover retains the heat and thus amplifies the greenhouse effect.”

Looking to the future

“Our findings show that there is an even greater need to reduce greenhouse gases, because not only does cloud cover respond to warming, it also amplifies warming through this new effect,” warns Johannes Quaas.

The scientists believe that further studies are needed to better understand changes in cloud cover. The ongoing studies at Leipzig University are also looking at changes in vegetation and its biodiversity, for example, as well as the role of decreasing air pollution.

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JOURNAL

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.ado5179 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Diurnally asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Jun-2024

 

Changing climate will make home feel like somewhere else

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

 

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N 50 YEARS, THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CITIES TO THE NORTH ARE GOING TO BECOME MUCH MORE LIKE CITIES TO THE SOUTH. FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU LIVE IN WASHINGTON, D.C., YOU WOULD NEED TO TRAVEL TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO EXPERIENCE WHAT WASHINGTON, D.C. WILL FEEL LIKE BY 2080, WHERE SUMMERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 11.5°F WARMER IN 50 YEARS.

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE/MATTHEW FITZPATRICK

Interactive app shows how climate change will make places around the world  feel like they are closer to the equator

FROSTBURG, MD (June 20, 2024)—The impacts of climate change are being felt all over the world, but how will it impact how your hometown feels? An interactive web application from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science allows users to search 40,581 places and 5,323 metro areas around the globe to match the expected future climate in each city with the current climate of another location, providing a relatable picture of what is likely in store.

You may have already experienced these changes where you live and may be wondering: What will climate of the future be like where I live? How hot will summers be? Will it still snow in winter? And perhaps How might things change course if we act to reduce emissions? This web application helps to provide answers to these questions.

For example, if you live in Washington, D.C., you would need to travel to northern Louisiana to experience what Washington, D.C., will feel like by 2080, where summers are expected to be 11.5°F warmer in 50 years. If you live in Shanghai, China, you would need to travel to northern Pakistan to experience what Shanghai’s climate could be like in 2080.

“In 50 years, the northern hemisphere cities to the north are going to become much more like cities to the south. Everything is moving towards the equator in terms of the climate that’s coming for you,” said Professor Matthew Fitzpatrick. “And the closer you get to the equator there are fewer and fewer good matches for climates in places like Central America, south Florida, and northern Africa. There is no place on earth representative of what those places they will be like in the future.”

A spatial ecologist, Fitzpatrick used climate-analog mapping, a statistical technique that matches the expected future climate at one location—your city of residence, for instance—with the current climate of another familiar location, to provide a place-based understanding of climate change. He used the most recent available data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, to illustrate anticipated temperature changes over 30 years under two different scenarios.

Because the answer to these questions depends on how climate is expected to change and the specific nature of those changes is uncertain, the app provides results for both high and reduced emissions scenarios, as well as for several different climate forecast models. You can map the best matches for your city for these different scenarios and models as well as map the similarity between your city’s future climate and present climates everywhere (based on the average of the five forecasts for each emission scenario).

The first scenario that users can search is similar to our current trajectory and assumes very high greenhouse gas emissions, in which the planet is on track to warm around 9 degrees F by the end of this century. This scenario would make the earth warmer than it likely has been in millions of years. The second scenario is similar to what the planet would feel like if nations pursue Paris Climate Accord goals. Under that scenario, the planet warms by about 3 degrees F by immediately and drastically reducing human-caused greenhouse gases emissions.

“I hope that it continues to inform the conversation about climate change. I hope it helps people better understand the magnitude of the impacts and why scientists are so concerned,” said Fitzpatrick.

Search the interactive climate map for your city at www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates  

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science leads the way toward better management of Maryland’s natural resources and the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. From a network of laboratories located across the state, UMCES scientists provide sound evidence and advice to help state and national leaders manage the environment, and prepare future scientists to meet the global challenges of the 21st century. www.umces.edu  

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