It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Saturday, July 20, 2024
Large and unequal life expectancy declines in India during COVID-19
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
The international study, co-authored by the Department of Sociology and the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science’s Dr Aashish Gupta and Professor Ridhi Kashyap, reveals that life expectancy in India suffered large and unequal declines during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Overall, mortality across India was 17% higher in 2020 compared to 2019, implying 1.19 million excess deaths in India. This extrapolated estimate is about eight times higher than the official number of COVID-19 deaths in India, and 1.5 times higher than the World Health Organization’s estimates.
Ridhi Kashyap, Professor of Demography and Computational Social Science at the University of Oxford said, ‘Our findings challenge the view that 2020 was not significant in terms of the mortality impacts and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. While a mortality surge caused by the Delta variant in 2021 received more attention, our study reveals significant and unequal mortality increases even earlier on in the pandemic.'
Using high-quality survey data from 765,180 individuals, the study estimated changes in life expectancy at birth, by sex and social group between 2019 and 2020 in India – a country where one-third of global pandemic excess deaths are thought to have occurred.
The study found large mortality impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on younger age groups, women, and marginalised social groups. Marginalised social groups within India experienced greater life expectancy declines than the most privileged social groups.
Dr Aashish Gupta, Marie Sklodowska-Curie Fellow at the University of Oxford said, ‘Marginalised groups already had lower life expectancy, and the pandemic further increased the gap between the most privileged Indian social groups, and the most marginalised social groups in India.’
While high caste Hindu groups experienced a life expectancy decline of 1.3 years, the loss for Muslims was 5.4 years and 4.1 years for Scheduled Tribes. These marginalised caste and religious groups already faced large disadvantages in life expectancy – disparities which were only exacerbated by the pandemic.
The study also found larger losses among females compared to males among almost all Indian social groups and classes. Women in India experienced life expectancy declines of 3.1 years - one year more than men who experienced life expectancy losses of 2.1 years. This pattern could be explained by gender inequalities in healthcare and allocation of resources within households. It also contrasts with the pattern found in high-income countries where excess mortality was higher among men than women during the COVID-19 pandemic.
While life expectancy declines in high-income countries were primarily driven by mortality increases in over 60s, mortality increased in almost all age groups in India and most prominently in the youngest and older age groups. Excess morality in the youngest ages could be explained by children in certain areas being more susceptible to COVID-19 and by indirect effects of the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, including deteriorating economic conditions and disruptions to public health services.
Professor Ridhi Kashyap said, ‘Using unique demographic and health survey data, our study highlights the importance of focussing on inequality when measuring mortality and shows that pandemics can worsen, rather than equalise, existing disparities. This was particularly noticeable on the role that COVID-19 had in further exacerbating the health impacts of pre-pandemic gender disparities.’
This study shows the potential for accurately estimating mortality – even for short periods – using retrospective mortality information collected in a relatively poor context. It also emphasises the need for policies that address the underlying social determinants of health to mitigate the impact of future health crises.
For more information and interviews, please contact the communications teams at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS.Media@demography.ox.ac.uk) and at the Department of Sociology (comms@sociology.ox.ac.uk).
About University of Oxford’s Department of Sociology
Oxford Sociology is at the forefront of ground-breaking empirical research which spans the full spectrum of the social world. We apply a diverse range of rigorous methods to real-world issues in order to address the most pressing societal challenges of our times. Our commitment to collaborative research ensures that our researchers have the freedom to transcend disciplinary boundaries, foster international partnerships, and explore innovative research. Some of the themes that our researchers are currently working on include social inequality, demography, political sociology, gender and the family, cybercrime and justice, computational social science, and the COVID-19 Pandemic.
About University of Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science
Based at Oxford Population Health, the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Demographic Science Unit are at the forefront of demographic research, disrupting and realigning demography for the benefit of populations around the world. Focussing on inequality, family, biosocial, digital, geospatial, and computational research, our researchers use new types of data, methods and unconventional approaches to tackle the most challenging demographic and population problems of our time.
Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in India in 2020
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
19-Jul-2024
A study of 156,000 UK residents found that urban residents score the lowest in social and economic satisfaction and well-being
UNIVERSITEIT VAN AMSTERDAM
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FIGURE SHOWING HOW AVERAGE SCORES VARY WITH URBANICITY FOR EIGHT VARIABLES, GROUPED INTO THREE PSYCHOLOGICAL DIMENSIONS: WELL-BEING, SOCIAL SATISFACTION, AND ECONOMIC SATISFACTION. LOWER VALUES GENERALLY INDICATE WORSE OUTCOMES, EXCEPT FOR LONELINESS, WHERE LOWER VALUES ARE BETTER. LOWER VALUES OF ADJUSTED DISTANCE CAPTURES INDIVIDUALS LIVING CLOSE TO CITY CENTRES. FOR INSTANCE, AN ADJUSTED DISTANCE OF 0.01 REFLECTS INDIVIDUALS LIVING 4KM FROM CITY CENTRES OF CITIES WITH 200,000 INHABITANTS, 7 KM FROM 500,000 INHABIT CITIES, AND 10 KM FROM 1,000,000 CITIES
A new study conducted by the Centre for Urban Mental Health at the University of Amsterdam finds that, in a sample of 156,000 UK residents aged 40 and up, urban living is linked to lower levels of well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction. Urban residents also exhibit greater psychological inequality. The study identifies a ‘Goldilocks zone’ between cities and rural areas, where the highest satisfaction and most equal scores are observed.
The percentage of people living in cities has surged from 10% in the 1910s to a projected 68% by 2050. This shift means that cities are increasingly shaping our psychological lives, making it crucial to understand urban well-being. This popularity of cities is largely driven by the abundance of social and economic opportunities. In response to this observation, psychologist and lead author Adam Finnemann investigated with colleagues whether the popularity of cities makes sense from a psychological perspective. In other words, does the abundance of economic opportunities translate into higher urban economic satisfaction? Does the wealth of people lead to urban social satisfaction? Do urban residents experience higher well-being compared to those living farther from cities?
A sample of 156,000 people from multiple cities
The study aimed to answer these questions by comparing urban and rural areas using large samples ranging from 40,000 to 156,000 individuals aged 40 to 70 from the UK Biobank. ‘A central challenge in urban psychology is defining urban, suburban, peri-urban, and rural areas’, states Finnemann. ‘To address this problem, we propose a novel measure of urbanicity based on the distance between individuals and their nearest city centre. This measure also accounts for the fact that living 15 km from London differs from living 15 km from Leeds—one is still urbanized while the other is countryside.’
The urban desirability paradox
The study finds that while urban residents have the highest incomes, this does not translate into psychological advantages. On the contrary, residents in highly urban areas score worse on all eight measures covering well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction. The researchers conclude that there exists a conundrum, which they term the ‘urban desirability paradox;’ highlighting the contrast between the popularity of cities and the psychological state of their residents.
Benefiting the already advantaged
The study also finds increased inequality in satisfaction, particularly regarding income and financial satisfaction, with the highest satisfaction inequality near city centers. ‘This increased social and economic satisfaction inequality aligns with theories that suggest cities disproportionately benefit the already advantaged,’ Finnemann notes.
Optimal distances
Finally, the novel measure of urbanicity allowed the researchers to examine the effects between highly urban and highly rural areas. They identified optimal distances for five variables: meaningful life, family satisfaction, friendship satisfaction, loneliness, and financial satisfaction. ‘Areas near cities but beyond their boundaries, the hinterlands, show the highest and most equal levels of psychological satisfaction,’ explains Finnemann. ‘These optimal distances might result from happy individuals moving there rather than the locations themselves enhancing individual well-being. Thus, our findings do not imply that anyone will benefit psychologically from moving to these areas.’
This study was funded by The Centre for Urban Mental Health (UMH). UMH is the largest Research Priority Area of the University of Amsterdam and comprises 3 faculties: the Faculty of Social & Behavioural Sciences, the Faculty of Science, and the Faculty of Medicine. The aim of UMH is to identify new pathways for interventions that promote urban mental health, using a complexity science approach.
Article details
Adam Finnemann, Karoline Huth, Denny Borsboom, Sacha Epskamp & Han van der Maas, 2024, ‘The urban desirability paradox: U.K. urban-rural differences in well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction’, in: Science Advances, 10, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn1636
Optimal distances with healthiest and most equal responses were observed for family satisfaction, friendship satisfaction financial satisfaction, loneliness, and meaningful life. The optimal distances are illustrated for three cities with different sizes.
‘The urban desirability paradox: U.K. urban-rural differences in well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
19-Jul-2024
New snake discovery rewrites history, points to North America’s role in snake evolution
Ancient snakes unearthed: shedding light on the continent’s slithering past
UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA
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THE FOSSILIZED SKELETON OF THE NEWLY DISCOVERED SNAKE SPECIES HIBERNOPHIS BREITHAUPTI, WHICH LIVED 38 MILLION YEARS AGO IN WHAT IS NOW WESTERN WYOMING, REVEALS INSIGHTS INTO THE EVOLUTION AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR OF ITS MODERN DESCENDANTS.
A new species of fossil snake unearthed in Wyoming is rewriting our understanding of snake evolution. The discovery, based on four remarkably well-preserved specimens found curled together in a burrow, reveals a new species named Hibernophis breithaupti. This snake lived in North America 34 million years ago and sheds light on the origin and diversification of boas and pythons.
Hibernophis breithaupti has unique anatomical features, in part because the specimens are articulated—meaning they were found all in one piece with the bones still arranged in the proper order—which is unusual for fossil snakes. Researchers believe it may be an early member of Booidea, a group that includes modern boas and pythons. Modern boas are widespread in the Americas, but their early evolution is not well understood.These new and very complete fossils add important new information, in particular, on the evolution of small, burrowing boas known as rubber boas.
Traditionally, there has been much debate on the evolution of small burrowing boas. Hibernophis breithaupti shows that northern and more central parts of North America might have been a key hub for their development. The discovery of these snakes curled together also hints at the oldest potential evidence for a behavior familiar to us today—hibernation in groups.
"Modern garter snakes are famous for gathering by the thousands to hibernate together in dens and burrows," says Michael Caldwell, a U of A paleontologist who co-led the research along with his former graduate student Jasmine Croghan, and collaborators from Australia and Brazil. "They do this to conserve heat through the effect created by the ball of hibernating animals. It's fascinating to see possible evidence of such social behavior or hibernation dating back 34 million years."
New dawn for space storm alerts could help shield Earth's tech
Royal Astronomical Society press release
RAS PR 24/22 (NAM 8)
For immediate release
Space storms could soon be forecasted with greater accuracy than ever before thanks to a big leap forward in our understanding of exactly when a violent solar eruption may hit Earth.
Scientists say it is now possible to predict the precise speed a coronal mass ejection (CME) is travelling at and when it will smash into our planet – even before it has fully erupted from the Sun.
CMEs are bursts of gas and magnetic fields spewed into space from the solar atmosphere.
They can cause geomagnetic storms that have the potential to wreak havoc with terrestrial technology in Earth's orbit and on its surface, which is why experts across the globe are striving to improve space weather forecasts.
Advancements such as this one could make a huge difference in helping to protect infrastructure that is vital to our everyday lives, according to researchers at Aberystwyth University, who will present their findings today at the Royal Astronomical Society's National Astronomy Meeting in Hull.
They made their discovery after studying specific areas on the Sun called 'Active Regions', which have strong magnetic fields where CMEs are born. The researchers monitored how these areas changed in the periods before, during and after an eruption.
A vital aspect which they looked at was the "critical height" of the Active Regions, which is the height at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to a CME.
"By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine this critical height," said lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University.
"This data can then be used along with a geometric model which is used to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions, rather than just two, which is essential for precise predictions."
She added: "Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed.
"This insight allows us to predict the CME's speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted."
When these CMEs hit the Earth they can trigger a geomagnetic storm which is capable of producing stunning aurorae, often referred to in the northern hemisphere as the Northern Lights.
But the storms also have the potential to disrupt vital systems we rely on daily, including satellites, power grids, and communication networks, which is why scientists worldwide are working hard to improve our ability to better predict when CMEs will hit Earth.
This requires knowing a more accurate speed of the CME shortly after it erupts from the Sun to better provide advance warnings of when it will reach our planet.
Accurate speed predictions enable better estimates of when a CME will reach Earth, providing crucial advance warnings.
"Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on," Gandhi said.
"Our research not only enhances our understanding of the Sun's explosive behaviour but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events.
"This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day."
This clip shows the before, during and post eruption state of the Active Region AR11158, with the top left panel showing the AR in 171 wavelength, the top right panel a cutout of HMI magnetogram and the bottom panel a running difference movie.
The different stages of a coronal mass ejection, from onset (left), to post-eruption (middle) and travel towards objects like Earth in our solar system (right).
Caption: This clip shows the before, during and post eruption state of the Active Region AR11158, with the top left panel showing the AR in 171 wavelength, the top right panel a cutout of HMI magnetogram and the bottom panel a running difference movie.
Caption: The different stages of a coronal mass ejection, from onset (left), to post-eruption (middle) and travel towards objects like Earth in our solar system (right).
Caption: Left - shows a PIL averaged decay index profile versus height above the photosphere in Mm at the time of CME eruption with critical height as 61.47 Mm. Right - shows critical height over time for AR11158 with red and black dotted lines indicating CME onset and C2 time.
Credit: Harshita Gandhi
Notes for editors
The NAM 2024 conference is principally sponsored by the Royal Astronomical Society, the Science and Technology Facilities Council and the University of Hull.
About the Royal Astronomical Society
The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS), founded in 1820, encourages and promotes the study of astronomy, solar-system science, geophysics and closely related branches of science.
The RAS organises scientific meetings, publishes international research and review journals, recognises outstanding achievements by the award of medals and prizes, maintains an extensive library, supports education through grants and outreach activities and represents UK astronomy nationally and internationally. Its more than 4,000 members (Fellows), a third based overseas, include scientific researchers in universities, observatories and laboratories as well as historians of astronomy and others.
The RAS accepts papers for its journals based on the principle of peer review, in which fellow experts on the editorial boards accept the paper as worth considering. The Society issues press releases based on a similar principle, but the organisations and scientists concerned have overall responsibility for their content.
About the Science and Technology Facilities Council
The Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) is part of UK Research and Innovation – the UK body which works in partnership with universities, research organisations, businesses, charities, and government to create the best possible environment for research and innovation to flourish.
STFC funds and supports research in particle and nuclear physics, astronomy, gravitational research and astrophysics, and space science and also operates a network of five national laboratories, including the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and the Daresbury Laboratory, as well as supporting UK research at a number of international research facilities including CERN, FERMILAB, the ESO telescopes in Chile and many more.
STFC's Astronomy and Space Science programme provides support for a wide range of facilities, research groups and individuals in order to investigate some of the highest priority questions in astrophysics, cosmology and solar system science.
STFC's astronomy and space science programme is delivered through grant funding for research activities, and also through support of technical activities at STFC's UK Astronomy Technology Centre and RAL Space at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. STFC also supports UK astronomy through the international European Southern Observatory and the Square Kilometre Array Organisation.
Visit https://stfc.ukri.org/ for more information. Follow STFC on Twitter: @STFC_Matters
Washington DC among US cities most vulnerable to space weather, scientists say
ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY
IMAGE:
THE TRANSFORMERS THAT ARE MOST ‘CONNECTED’ TO THE NETWORK THROUGHOUT THE STORM AND THEREFORE MAY BE LOCATIONS OF VULNERABILITY WHEN IT COMES TO SPACE WEATHER.
Several cities in the United States - including the nation's capital - have power grids particularly vulnerable to the threat of space weather – but experts are still trying to understand why.
Researchers at the British Geological Survey (BGS) found that certain regions of the US are more at risk from geomagnetic storms, which occur when the Sun spits out solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
These are bursts of gas and magnetic fields which erupt into space from the solar atmosphere.
They can cause geomagnetic storms that have the potential to damage infrastructure both in Earth's orbit and on its surface, ranging from satellites to underground pipelines.
Two of the cities with power grids found to be most vulnerable to the effects of such space weather are Washington DC and Milwaukee, according to Dr Lauren Orr of the BGS, who is presenting her findings at this week's National Astronomy Meeting at the University of Hull.
"We have identified certain regions of the US (Washington DC area and Milwaukee) which are repeatedly appearing as 'highly connected' in our network, hence are possibly regions particularly vulnerable to the effects of space weather and may benefit from further monitoring," she said.
Dr Orr added that there were "many reasons" the cities may be more at risk to the impact of geomagnetic storms, including "electrical conductivity of the ground, the physical construction of the power grid in those areas, or the location of the auroral currents in the sky".
However, she cautioned that further work was needed to investigate what about these areas makes them so-called 'supernodes' in the network.
Severe space weather is of growing concern to scientists across the globe and is now considered to be as likely to occur as a pandemic, with an impact that is equivalent to extreme temperatures or flooding.
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are one such hazard which can cause damage to power lines and transformers. In the past, widespread blackouts have been reported as a result of transformer damage during geomagnetic storms.
"Network science is now a common tool to quantify the resilience and robustness of power grids to both deliberate attacks and those caused by random failures or natural disasters," Dr Orr explained.
A network is made up of nodes and edges which could be anything from computers linked via the internet, to friends on Facebook, or transformers linked via cables.
"Having previously had great success using network science to uncover patterns within the auroral electrojet we would again combine the fields of network science and space weather to capture the network response to GICs," Dr Orr said.
"By applying known reliability parameters to the GIC network we can identify areas or transformers at high risk."
This is important, she added, because "these areas could be modified during a geomagnetic storm to prevent transformers burning out and to limit damage to the wider power grid".
The work has been carried out in collaboration with Professor Sandra Chapman, of the University of Warwick, and Dr Ryan McGranaghan, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.
Caption: The transformers that are most ‘connected’ to the network throughout the storm and therefore may be locations of vulnerability when it comes to space weather.
Caption: A snapshot of the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) network during an intense solar storm in September 2017.
Credit: British Geological Survey
Notes for editors
The NAM 2024 conference is principally sponsored by the Royal Astronomical Society, the Science and Technology Facilities Council and the University of Hull.
About the Royal Astronomical Society
The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS), founded in 1820, encourages and promotes the study of astronomy, solar-system science, geophysics and closely related branches of science.
The RAS organises scientific meetings, publishes international research and review journals, recognises outstanding achievements by the award of medals and prizes, maintains an extensive library, supports education through grants and outreach activities and represents UK astronomy nationally and internationally. Its more than 4,000 members (Fellows), a third based overseas, include scientific researchers in universities, observatories and laboratories as well as historians of astronomy and others.
The RAS accepts papers for its journals based on the principle of peer review, in which fellow experts on the editorial boards accept the paper as worth considering. The Society issues press releases based on a similar principle, but the organisations and scientists concerned have overall responsibility for their content.
A snapshot of the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) network during an intense solar storm in September 2017.
CREDIT
British Geological Survey
About the Science and Technology Facilities Council
The Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) is part of UK Research and Innovation – the UK body which works in partnership with universities, research organisations, businesses, charities, and government to create the best possible environment for research and innovation to flourish.
STFC funds and supports research in particle and nuclear physics, astronomy, gravitational research and astrophysics, and space science and also operates a network of five national laboratories, including the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and the Daresbury Laboratory, as well as supporting UK research at a number of international research facilities including CERN, FERMILAB, the ESO telescopes in Chile and many more.
STFC's Astronomy and Space Science programme provides support for a wide range of facilities, research groups and individuals in order to investigate some of the highest priority questions in astrophysics, cosmology and solar system science.
STFC's astronomy and space science programme is delivered through grant funding for research activities, and also through support of technical activities at STFC's UK Astronomy Technology Centre and RAL Space at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. STFC also supports UK astronomy through the international European Southern Observatory and the Square Kilometre Array Organisation.
Visit https://stfc.ukri.org/ for more information. Follow STFC on Twitter: @STFC_Matters
About the University of Hull's E.A. Milne Centre
The E.A. Milne Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Hull brings together experts who study the evolution of structure in the Universe ranging from stars through to galaxies and galaxy clusters, right up to the largest structures in the cosmos.
The centre employs observations, theory and computational methods in collaboration with international partners. Postgraduate and undergraduate students work alongside staff to understand the wonders of the Universe. Through a series of outreach activities, the centre also aims to share its passion for astronomy and astrophysics with the region and beyond.
