It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, June 05, 2024
UK
Overnight poll shows Starmer beat Sunak on every issue during TV debate
The survey paints a very different picture to the narrative doing the rounds that Rishi Sunak came out on top following the debate.
by Jack Peat 2024-06-05 THE GENTLEMAN ON THE LEFT IS WEARING AN OFF THE RACK SUIT, THE GENTLEMAN ON THE RIGHT IS CLOTHED BY KINGSMAN OF SAVILLE ROW
An overnight Savanta poll has revealed that Sir Keir Starmer bested Rishi Sunak on every single issue discussed on last night’s live TV debate.
The leaders of the two main parties clashed in their first debate on the General Election campaign, arguing over issues including tax, the NHS, immigration and the cost of living in a debate that at times seemed bad-tempered, as the two men were repeatedly told to stop talking over each other.
In his opening pitch to voters on ITV, the Prime Minister sought to draw dividing lines with Labour as he claimed the party would “raid” pension pots and hike taxes.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir questioned the timing of the July 4 vote, arguing Mr Sunak had called a summer polling day because he “knows” inflation and energy prices will take a turn for the worse in winter.
The Labour leader mockingly dubbed the Prime Minister “the British expert on tax rises” after Mr Sunak’s repeated insistence that Sir Keir would raise the burden.
A snap poll carried out by YouGov appeared to suggest Sunak had come out on top following the debate – if only by a marginal amount.
But new research carried out by Sevanta overnight suggests the Labour beat his opponent on every issue discussed, painting a very different picture.
Savanta said that on the issues, its survey respondents gave Sir Keir wins on immigration (45 per cent to 37 per cent for Mr Sunak) and on defence and security (43 per cent to 41 per cent).
The Labour leader was well ahead on the NHS and public services (63 per cent versus 25 per cent), plus the economy and cost of living (52 per cent to 36 per cent).
“According to our overnight panel, Starmer wins on the detail, but Sunak is much closer in the most important ‘who won the debate’ metric,” Savanta’s Political Research Director Chris Hopkins said.
“Presentationally, it felt like the Prime Minister had the upper hand at times – in particular towards the end of the debate – and although our figures suggest he lost narrowly, he probably still outperformed expectations,” he said.
Sir Keir also beat the PM on every personality-based question posed by Savanta, including: who came across as most honest (54 per cent to 29 per cent), who gave the most thoughtful answers (53 per cent to 35 per cent) and who remained the calmest (51 per cent to 36 per cent).
‘STOP LYING’ trends on social media following Tory’s tax claim
The £2,000 tax claim has been likened to promises of £350 million a week for the NHS trotted out by Vote Leave in the Brexit referendum.
The first leader’s debate of the General Election has been marred by accusations of untruthfulness after the Conservatives claimed a Labour government would lead to a tax rise of £2,000 for every working household.
Rishi Sunak repeatedly claimed Labour’s spending plans would result in tax rises on working households during ITV’s head-to-head debate with Sir Keir Starmer.
However, it has emerged a senior official at the Treasury warned the Conservatives not to say civil servants were behind their central claim, raising questions over its credibility.
The figure has been calculated on the basis that there is a £38.5 billion “black hole” in Labour’s spending plans, which is the equivalent of £2,094 for each of the 18.4 million working households in the UK.
But it is based on a number of assumptions and spurious calculations, with the number being compared to the £350 million a week pledge made by Vote Leave during the Brexit referendum.
Following the live TV debate, ‘STOP LYING’ has been trending on X (formerly Twitter) as a number of people blast the use of misleading figures.
The leaders of the UK’s two biggest political parties, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer clashed on Tuesday night.
Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak clashed over the economy, immigration and the NHS in a feisty first TV general election debate.
The Prime Minister attacked Sir Keir over tax rises, while the Labour Leader ridiculed Mr Sunak over NHS waiting lists. Both men made a series of claims about their own credentials and each others, with varying relationships with the truth. Here are some of the claims, and how they stack up.
Tax
Both leaders made a series of questionable claims on Tuesday evening.
Far and away the most tetchy argument was Rishi Sunak’s claim that under Labour there would be “£2,000 higher taxes for every working family”. The Prime Minister said this was based on independent analysis of Labour's spending plans by the civil service.
However, it is not true, doesn’t come from independent analysis, and the Prime Minister and his ministers were warned about this days ago.
On Wednesday morning, it emerged the chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying the Conservatives’ assessment of their tax plans "should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service".
The government also say the figure relates to a £38.5 billion “black hole” in Labour’s finances, but this is based on a lot of assumptions. While the full Labour finances are not yet worked out due to a lack of manifesto, it is not verifiably true, and does not come from an independent source.
For his part, the Labour leader claimed there have been 26 tax rises under the Conservatives, but given they’ve gone up and down hundreds of times, it’s unclear where this figure came from.
Sir Keir also claimed it was Tory policy to get rid of National Insurance altogether, costing £46bn. While it would cost that, the Prime Minister has not said he’d do this in the next parliament, it’s instead a “long-term ambition”. NHS waiting lists
One of the more uncomfortable moments for Mr Sunak was a debate about NHS England waiting lists, with the audience openly laughing at him when he insisted they were going down.
However, he’s not necessarily wrong. Non-emergency waiting lists are falling month on month, which suggests it’s true. But the total figure of more than 350,000 is still higher than the equivalent period from a year before. Last September, waiting lists rose to a peak of nearly 7.8 million.
It’s also 600,000 higher than when Mr Sunak became Prime Minister. So the truth supports both arguments, which isn’t helpful. Immigration
Discussing migration, the Prime Minister claimed small boat arrivals are down a third over the past 12 months. While that's true year on year, they're actually up 38 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Defence
One area where we can say with certainty if something is accurate was Mr Sunak’s claim Labour hasn’t matched the Tory pledge to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).In actuality Labour has said this, with the only difference being the pledge is “as soon as resources allow”, whereas the Conservatives have promised to deliver it by 2030.
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